NFL line-changing injuries
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+1, 43)
There were no NFL lines for this NFC East match-up when the week opened because the Redskins were awaiting word on the status of Clinton Portis (knee). The NFL’s second-leading rusher has battled through a number of injuries this season, and it appears to be catching up with him. However, Jason Taylor (calf) and Shawn Springs (calf) both appear likely to play after practicing this week. For the Cowboys, they cannot get Tony Romo (finger) back under center quickly enough since the Dallas offense has been horrible in his absence. A limited Portis and a healthy Romo means the Cowboys are small faves at Washington today.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+3, 47.5)
The Cardinals opened as 1.5-point NFL betting favorites, but have doubled their advantage to three points against the listless Seahawks, who are getting Matt Hasselbeck (back) and Deion Branch (heel) back as a boost to their anemic offense. Hasselbeck has been hurt since Week 5 and Branch has played only once this season. It's difficult to tell if either player will be able to step in and make a major difference after long lay offs - even against a poor Arizona pass defense. Meanwhile, the Cardinals just keep on rolling through the NFC West, and they are no longer a surprise favorite on a weekly basis.
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 42)
The Steelers have been given a point to become 5-point NFL betting favorites this weekend thanks to some good news in the health department. Willie Parker (shoulder) looks ready to play in what has been an injury-plagued season. They will need him at his best, because Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder) has been awful lately. Roethlisberger took his coaches' hint and participated in regular practice throughout the week. The Chargers are a dangerous team: they play up or down to their level of competition, it seems, which makes it difficult for NFL betting players to get a read on them.
Other notable injuries:
RB Steven Jackson (Rams) - Out.
RB Larry Johnson (Chiefs) - Active and expected to get 10 to 15 carries.
QB Chad Pennington (Dolphins) - Has sore foot but he's listed as probable.
RB Brian Westbrook (Eagles) - Probable.
WR Matt Jones (Jags) - game-time decision.
DT John Henderson (Jags) - Out.
WR Derrick Mason (Ravens) - Questionable.
WR Reggie Wayne (Colts) - Listed as questionable but expected to play.
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 11
By MATT SEVERANCE
N.Y. Jets at New England (-3.5)
Why Jets cover: Since losing to the Pats in Week 2, New York is averaging 32.1 points over its last seven contests, and its 255 points lead the AFC. The Jets face a Patriot team without its most versatile defender and sack leader, Adalius Thomas, who has a broken forearm.
Why Patriots cover: They have owned the Jets, winning 11 of the past 12 meetings and going 9-2-1 ATS in that stretch. Matt Cassel is a vastly different QB from that 19-10 Week 2 victory against the Jets, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes in the past four games.
Total (42): The under is 9-1-2 in New England’s past 12 games vs. AFC teams.
Denver at Atlanta (-6)
Why Broncos cover: They have won three in a row against the NFC. Atlanta is just 2-5 ATS in its past seven vs. teams with a winning record. Jay Cutler looks back in form, having just thrown for 447 yards, but who will run the ball?
Why Falcons cover: Michael Turner should have a field day against a Denver run defense ranked 27th in the league. In four home games, Turner is averaging 118.5 rushing yards per game and has six touchdowns. Atlanta is unbeaten at home and has covered in every game this season. Denver has been terrible against good teams: 3-12 ATS in its past 15 games against teams with a winning record.
Total (51.5): The over is 7-1 in Atlanta’s last eight home games.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati (+9.5)
Why Eagles cover: They are stellar on the road, going 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games. Philly is 12-3 in its past 15 when the final score has more than a touchdown difference. Cincy is 1-6 ATS in its past seven following a win.
Why Bengals cover: If it’s a close game they should win outright: Philly is 1-9 the past two seasons in games decided by less than a TD. The Bengals won their first game of the season in Week 9 before their bye last week. Cedric Benson appears to have solved Cincy’s ground game issues, and Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t turning the ball over as much.
Total (42): The under is 5-1-1 in Cincy’s past seven home games.
Chicago at Green Bay (-4)
Why Bears cover: They have won five of the past six meetings and four straight at Lambeau. RB Matt Forte should have a big day against a defense that has allowed 398 yards rushing in the past two games and lost its starting LB Nick Barnett for the season this week.
Why Packers cover: They are 4-0 ATS in their past four in the division. Chicago’s passing defense ranks 30th, which is good news for QB Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay's pass defense is third in the league (179.1 yards per game) and has an NFL-best 16 interceptions. If Kyle Orton can’t go for Chicago, that spells major trouble for Rex Grossman.
Total (45): The over is 8-1 in the Packers’ last nine home games.
Houston at Indianapolis (-9)
Why Texans cover: Even though backup QB Sage Rosenfels will start, the Texans were routing Indy in the last meeting before Rosenfels fumbled twice in the last four minutes. WR Andre Johnson had nine catches for 131 yards in the Week 5 loss and goes for his third consecutive game with a TD against the Colts, who are 1-5 ATS in their past six home games.
Why Colts cover: The Texans have yet to win a road game this year and are 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games. Indy has won 12 of 13 against Houston, including three straight. The Colts have won two games in a row since defensive anchor Bob Sanders returned. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its past six games overall.
Total (51): The over is 7-0 in the past seven meetings.
New Orleans at Kansas City (+5)
Why Saints cover: They have the top-ranked offense. Kansas City’s defense has allowed an average of 316.0 passing yards in its last three games and will be without linebackers Derrick Johnson and Pat Thomas and defensive end Brian Johnston. The Saints could get RB Reggie Bush back this week as well.
Why Chiefs cover: K.C. gets RB Larry Johnson back this week. The Saints are a different club on the road, going 0-4 this season. QB Tyler Thigpen has thrown for 710 yards, six TDs and no picks in his last three games.
Total (49.5): The over is 11-2-1 in the Saints’ past 14 games.
Oakland at Miami (-10.5)
Why Raiders cover: Rookie RB Darren McFadden and Pro Bowl DE Derrick Burgess both may return from injury this week. Miami is 3-18-1 ATS in its last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Why Dolphins cover: The Oakland offense has been nonexistent in the past three weeks (16 points), and Raiders starting QB JaMarcus Russell is iffy this week. The Dolphins are 5-1 in their past six vs. the AFC. Miami has an NFL-low seven giveaways and hasn't turned the ball over more than once in a game all season.
Total (38.5): The under is 4-1 in Oakland’s last five games and Miami’s last five home games.
Baltimore at N.Y. Giants (-6.5)
Why Ravens cover: Rookie QB Joe Flacco has thrown for six touchdowns and no interceptions in the past four weeks. The Ravens have the league’s top-rated rushing defense and haven’t allowed more than 76 in a game this year. Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in its past four games.
Why Giants cover: They step up against the good teams, going 10-2 ATS in their past 12 against teams with a winning record. The G-Men will test Baltimore’s rush defense with the league’s best rushing attack. New York has eclipsed 200 yards on the ground in the past two games. New York is second in the NFL in pass defense.
Total (42): The over is 4-0 in Baltimore’s past four games.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Why Vikings cover: Minnesota has won five of its last six games. RB Adrian Peterson has broken the 100-yard barrier in the past four games and had 192 last week against Green Bay. The Bucs just gave up a season-high 183 rushing yards in Kansas City.
Why Bucs cover: The Vikes are 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, 0-4 ATS in their past four on grass and 0-5 ATS in the past five games in Tampa. The Bucs allow an average of just 69.0 yards rushing at home this season.
Total (38.5): The over is 5-0 in the past five games in Tampa.
Detroit at Carolina (-14)
Why Lions cover: The Lions played well enough to win in Weeks 5 to 8, falling by an average of only 5.3 points. Carolina is only 1-5 ATS in its past six November games. Panthers QB Jake Delhomme is coming off one of the worst games of his career.
Why Panthers cover: Carolina is unbeaten at home and Detroit hasn’t won on the road. Delhomme should bounce back against a Detroit defense allowing 406.1 total yards per game, including 244.9 in the air.
Total (40): The under is 10-1 in Carolina’s last 11 November games.
St. Louis at San Francisco (-6.5)
Why Rams cover: QB Marc Bulger has 10 touchdowns and four interceptions in his career against the 49ers, who are coming off a short week. San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its past six games and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. Star RB Steven Jackson is likely to return from injury this week.
Why 49ers cover: RB Frank Gore has fared well in the past against St. Louis, scoring six touchdowns in his last five games, and St. Louis has the 30th-ranked run defense. The Niners are 6-1 ATS in their past seven meetings vs. the Rams.
Total (44.5): The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings.
Arizona at Seattle (+3)
Why Cardinals cover: That high-flying, Kurt-Warner-led offense gets to face a defense that ranks 27th in the NFL. Home teams that have won on Monday Night Football are 5-1 the following week this season. Arizona has scored at least 20 points in 16 of its past 17 games.
Why Seahawks cover: They catch Arizona on a short week and will get starting QB Matt Hasselbeck back this week. Top WR Deion Branch also may play in just his second game this season. The Seahawks are 7-1 in their past eight games in the division.
Total (47.5): The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)
Why Titans cover: Kerry Collins proved against the Bears that he can still make opposing teams pay for stacking the line of scrimmage and leaving man-to-man coverage. The Tennessee defense continues to dominate, allowing just 243 yards last week and an NFL-low 13.0 points per game. Tennessee has won six in a row on the road.
Why Jaguars cover: They had their best defensive outing of the season last week against Detroit. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch may sit out again this week, which would help an offensive line that allowed seven sacks in the Week 1 17-10 loss at Tennessee. The home team is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
Total (39.5): The over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Why Chargers cover: QB Ben Roethlisberger has eight interceptions in his last 10 quarters and is beaten up. Chargers QB Philip Rivers leads the NFL with 21 touchdown passes, including 10 in the last four games. He has completed 69.7 percent of his throws for 1,171 yards over that same stretch. San Diego is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven against teams with a winning record.
Why Steelers cover: Roethlisberger practiced Wednesday and is expected to play, as is RB Willie Parker. The Steelers are 12-0 at home during the regular season against the Chargers. San Diego is 1-4 ATS in its past five games this season and has the league’s worst pass defense.
Total (43): The over is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s past four games vs. the AFC.
Dallas at Washington (+1)
Why Cowboys cover: QB Tony Romo will return as will top cornerback Terence Newman. Dallas averaged 29.2 points with Romo at quarterback, but scored 14, 13 and 14 in the three games he missed. Washington RB Clinton Portis, arguably the NFL MVP, might not play with a sprained knee.
Why Redskins cover: They have beaten Dallas three straight times at home and already handled the Cowboys once this season, 26-24 at Dallas. Skins WR Santana Moss owns the Cowboys with 25 catches for 381 yards and two touchdowns in the past three games. Washington CB DeAngelo Hall makes his debut this week. The Cowboys are 2-10 in their past 12 vs. the NFC.
Total (44): The under is 4-0 in Washington’s past four home games.
Cleveland at Buffalo (-5)
Why Browns cover: Brady Quinn appeared to energize the offense in his first start, and he will have had 10 days to digest the playbook for this game. Cleveland faces a regressing Bills team, losers of four of five, and Buffalo QB Trent Edwards has thrown five interceptions in his last three games.
Why Bills cover: The Browns pointing fingers at each other inside the locker room with several players saying the team quit in last week’s loss to Denver. Cleveland’s defense has allowed an average of 496.5 yards in its last two games.
Total (42.5): The under is 6-1 in Cleveland’s past seven road games.