Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Oddsmakers currently have the Bills listed as 3-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 42½.
Marshawn Lynch rushed for 119 yards on 23 attempts for Buffalo in its 29-27 loss to Cleveland on Monday night.
Cleveland cashed as 4-point road underdogs as the teams played over the 43-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Chiefs lost to New Orleans 30-20 as a 6-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (51).
Tyler Thigpen threw for 235 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Kansas City and Dwayne Bowe caught seven passes for 53 yards with a pair of TDs.
Current streak:
Buffalo has lost 4 straight games.
Kansas City has lost 6 straight games.
Team records:
Buffalo: 5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS
Kansas City: 1-9 SU, 5-5 ATS
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Kansas City most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on grass are 1-9
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing outside the division are 0-10
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games at home
Next up:
Buffalo home to San Francisco, Sunday, November 30
Kansas City at Oakland, Sunday, November 30
New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 5½-point favorites versus the Jets, while the game's total is sitting at 41.
Jay Feely booted a 34-yard field goal in OT as the Jets upset the Patriots 34-31 last time out, as 3-point road underdogs. The 65 points sailed OVER the posted total of 41.
Brett Favre completed 26-of-33 pass attempts for 258 yards with a pair of touchdowns.
The Titans defeated Jacksonville 24-14 as a 3-point favorite in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40).
Kerry Collin passed for 230 yards with three touchdowns for Tennessee, while Justin Gage caught four passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
Current streak:
New York has won 4 straight games.
Tennessee has won 10 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Tennessee: 10-0 SU, 9-0-1 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Tennessee most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Jets last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
NY Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Jets last 9 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Next up:
NY Jets home to Denver, Sunday, November 30
Tennessee at Detroit, Thursday, November 27
Chicago Bears vs. St. Louis Rams
Oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 8-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total is sitting at 44.
The Bears lost to Green Bay 37-3 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Kyle Orton passed for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for the Bears, while Matt Forte rushed for 64 yards on 16 carries.
The Rams lost to San Francisco 35-16 as a 7-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43.5).
Marc Bulger threw for 295 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for St. Louis, while Donnie Avery caught nine passes for 93 yards.
Current streak:
Chicago has lost 2 straight games.
St. Louis has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS
St. Louis: 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS
Chicago most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 4-6
St. Louis most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on turf are 1-9
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
St. Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
Next up:
Chicago at Minnesota, Sunday, November 30
St. Louis home to Miami, Sunday, November 30
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 1-point favorites versus the Dolphins, while the game's total is sitting at 42.
The Patriots were upset 34-31 in overtime by the Jets last time out, as 3-point favorites at home. The 65 points sailed OVER the posted total of 41.
Matt Cassel threw for 400 yards with three touchdowns in a losing effort.
The Dolphins defeated Oakland 17-15 as a 10-point favorite in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37.5).
Ted Ginn Jr. caught four passes for 51 yards and rushed for 42 yards and a touchdown on two carries for Miami, while Ronnie Brown rushed for 101 yards on 16 carries in the win.
Current streak:
Miami has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
New England: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
Miami: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
New England most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 8-2
Miami most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
New England is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
New England is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
New England is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New England's last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Next up:
New England home to Pittsburgh, Sunday, November 30
Miami at St. Louis, Sunday, November 30
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Oddsmakers currently have the Jaguars listed as 3-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game's total is sitting at 41.
The Vikings lost to Tampa Bay 19-13 as a 5.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).
Gus Frerotte threw for 138 yards with a touchdown for Minnesota, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 85 yards on 19 carries.
The Jaguars lost to Tennessee 24-14 as a 3-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40).
David Garrard threw for 135 yards with an interception for Jacksonville and Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 66 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 17 carries.
Team records:
Minnesota: 5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS
Jacksonville: 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Jacksonville's last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games at home
Jacksonville is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Next up:
Minnesota home to Chicago, Sunday, November 30
Jacksonville at Houston, Monday, December 1
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens
Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 1½-point favorites versus the Eagles, while the game's total is sitting at 39½.
The Eagles tied Cincinnati 13-13 as a 9-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41).
Donovan McNabb passed for 339 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for Philadelphia, while Brian Westbrook rushed for 60 yards on 14 carries.
The Ravens lost to the Giants 30-10 as a 7-point underdog last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (40).
Joe Flacco threw for 164 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Baltimore and Derrick Mason hauled in seven passes for 82 yards.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 5-4-1 SU, 6-4 ATS
Baltimore: 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in November are 4-5-1
When playing on turf are 5-4-1
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing on outside the division are 7-2-1
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Philadelphia home to Arizona, Thursday, November 27
Baltimore at Cincinnati, Sunday, November 30
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys listed as 10-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total is sitting at 46.
The 49ers defeated St. Louis 35-16 as a 7-point favorite in Week 11. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43.5).
Shaun Hill passed for 213 yards with two touchdown passes and a TD run for San Francisco, while Frank Gore rushed for 106 yards with two touchdowns in the win.
The Cowboys defeated Washington 14-10 as a 2-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Marion Barber rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries for Dallas, while Tony Romo passed for 198 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in the win.
Team records:
San Francisco: 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS
Dallas: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS
San Francisco most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing outside the division are 3-7
Dallas most recently:
When playing in November are 9-1
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Dallas
San Francisco is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
Next up:
San Francisco at Buffalo, Sunday, November 30
Dallas home to Seattle, Thursday, November 27
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
Oddsmakers currently have the Browns listed as 3-point favorites versus the Texans, while the game's total is sitting at 50½.
The Texans lost to Indianapolis 33-27 as an 8-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (50.5).
Sage Rosenfels passed for 192 yards with an interception for Houston, while Steve Slaton rushed for 156 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
Phil Dawson's 56-yard field goal with 1:44 remaining lifted the Browns over the Bills 29-27 on Monday night.
Cleveland cashed as 4-point road underdogs as the teams played over the 43-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Houston has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Houston: 3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS
Cleveland: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS
Houston most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Cleveland most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Houston's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Cleveland is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games
Next up:
Houston home to Jacksonville, Monday, December 1
Cleveland home to Indianapolis, Sunday, November 30
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as 8-point favorites versus the Lions, while the game's total is sitting at 42.
The Buccaneers defeated Minnesota 19-13 as a 5.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).
Jeff Garcia passed for 255 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Tampa Bay, while Matt Bryant kicked four field goals in the win.
The Lions lost to Carolina 31-22 as a 14-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).
Daunte Culpepper threw for 207 yards with a TD pass, a TD run and two interceptions for Detroit, while Kevin Smith rushed for 112 yards on 24 carries.
Current streak:
Tampa Bay has won 2 straight games.
Detroit has lost 10 straight games.
Team records:
Tampa Bay: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Detroit: 0-10 SU, 4-6 ATS
Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Detroit most recently:
When playing in November are 1-9
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing outside the division are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Next up:
Tampa Bay home to New Orleans, Sunday, November 30
Detroit home to Tennessee, Thursday, November 27
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Oddsmakers currently have the Broncos listed as 10-point favorites versus the Raiders, while the game's total is sitting at 42½.
The Raiders lost to Miami 17-15 as a 10-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37.5).
JaMarcus Russell threw for 156 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for the Raiders, while Johnnie Lee Higgins ran back a punt 93 yards for a touchdown.
The Broncos defeated Atlanta 24-20 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (52).
Jay Cutler passed for 216 yards with a touchdown pass for Denver, while Peyton Hillis rushed for 44 yards a pair of touchdowns on 10 carries.
Current streak:
Oakland has lost 4 straight games.
Denver has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Oakland: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS
Denver: 6-4 SU, 3-6-1 ATS
Oakland most recently:
When playing in November are 1-9
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 3-7
Denver most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games on the road
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
Next up:
Oakland home to Kansas City, Sunday, November 30
Denver at NY Jets, Sunday, November 30
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Panthers defeated Detroit 31-22 as a 14-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).
DeAngelo Williams rushed for 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14 carries for Carolina, while Jonathan Stewart rushed for 130 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in the win.
The Falcons lost to Denver 24-20 as a 6.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (52).
Matt Ryan threw for 250 yards with an interception for Atlanta and Michael Turner rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries.
Current streak:
Carolina has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Carolina: 8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS
Atlanta: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Carolina most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 6-4
Atlanta most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 9 games
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Next up:
Carolina at Green Bay, Sunday, November 30
Atlanta at San Diego, Sunday, November 30
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals
Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Cardinals, while the game's total is sitting at 48½.
The Giants defeated Baltimore 30-10 as a 7-point favorite last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (40).
Brandon Jacobs rushed for 73 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries for New York, while Eli Manning passed for 153 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win.
The Cardinals defeated Seattle 26-20 as a 3-point favorite in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48).
J.J. Arrington rushed for 40 yards and a touchdown on eight carries and also caught a TD pass for Arizona, while Kurt Warner passed for 395 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win.
Current streak:
New York has won 5 straight games.
Arizona has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS
Arizona: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 9-1
Arizona most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
NY Giants are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games on the road
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Next up:
NY Giants at Washington, Sunday, November 30
Arizona at Philadelphia, Thursday, November 27
Washington Redskins vs. Seattle Seahawks
Oddsmakers currently have the Redskins listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Seahawks, while the game's total is sitting at 40½.
The Redskins lost to Dallas 14-10 as a 2-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Jason Campbell threw for 162 yards with a touchdown and an interception and Clinton Portis rushed for 68 yards on 15 carries.
The Seahawks lost to Arizona 26-20 as a 3-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48).
Matt Hasselbeck threw for 170 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for Seattle and Maurice Morris caught three passes for 27 yards with a touchdown.
Current streak:
Washington has lost 2 straight games.
Seattle has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Washington: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
Seattle: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Seattle most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Seattle is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Washington
Next up:
Washington home to NY Giants, Sunday, November 30
Seattle at Dallas, Thursday, November 27
Washington Redskins vs. Seattle Seahawks
Oddsmakers currently have the Redskins listed as 3½-point favorites versus the Seahawks, while the game's total is sitting at 40½.
The Redskins lost to Dallas 14-10 as a 2-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Jason Campbell threw for 162 yards with a touchdown and an interception and Clinton Portis rushed for 68 yards on 15 carries.
The Seahawks lost to Arizona 26-20 as a 3-point underdog in Week 11. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48).
Matt Hasselbeck threw for 170 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for Seattle and Maurice Morris caught three passes for 27 yards with a touchdown.
Current streak:
Washington has lost 2 straight games.
Seattle has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Washington: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
Seattle: 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Seattle most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Seattle is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Washington
Next up:
Washington home to NY Giants, Sunday, November 30
Seattle at Dallas, Thursday, November 27
Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers
Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Colts, while the game's total is sitting at 49½.
The Colts defeated Houston 33-27 as an 8-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (33-27).
Joseph Addai rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries and caught a TD pass for the Colts and Peyton Manning had two touchdowns passes while passing for 320 yards.
The Chargers lost to Pittsburgh 11-10 as a 4.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40.5).
Philip Rivers threw for 159 yards with two interceptions for San Diego and LaDainian Tomlinson was held to 57 yards on 18 carries with a touchdown.
Current streak:
Indianapolis has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Indianapolis: 6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS
San Diego: 4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS
Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 7-3
San Diego most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games at home
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Next up:
Indianapolis at Cleveland, Sunday, November 30
San Diego home to Atlanta, Sunday, November 30
NFL weather and injuries
By BLAKE EDWARDS
New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans
Line/Total: Titans opened -5 and 40. We’ve seen some small action on the favorite. -5 is such a dead number that moving to 5.5 is pretty insignificant. We have seen some decent action on the over, but I doubt we’ll go to 41. We’re talking about two very stout defenses and two conservative coaches that like to run the ball and control the clock.
Matchup of the Game: QB Brett Favre and his 12 INTs vs. Titans’ No. 6 pass defense that leads the NFL with 15 INTs. Favre needs to play near flawless football for the Jets to win this game.
Key Injuries: Jets - TE Bubba Franks upgraded to Probable.
Titans – DE Kyle Vanden Bosch upgraded to probable. DE Jevon Kearse, DE William Hayes, CB Reynaldo Hill and CB Nick Harper all listed as questionable.
Weather: Sunny with temperatures in the mid 40’s with a slight breeze.
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Line/Total: Dolphins opened -2 with the total at 42. Significant action has come in on the Pats. We’re currently dealing Pick’em on the game. Little action on the total so far. Going into Sunday, this is by far our biggest decision.
Matchup of the Game: Patriots’ 13th ranked rush defense vs. the Dolphins’ Wild Cat formation and a rushing attack that scorched the Patriots for 216 rushing yards in their first meeting.
Key Injuries: Patriots - LB Tedy Bruschi listed as questionable. Center Dan Koppen upgraded to probable.
Dolphins – No significant injuries to report.
Weather: Temperature in the mid 70s with 15 mph winds. Slight chance of scattered showers.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Baltimore Ravens
Line/Total: We opened Ravens -1, small action on the favorite so we’ve made a slight move to 1.5. We’ve seen some solid two-way action at that number. The total has seen some big action on the over. We opened 38.5 and are currently dealing 39.5.
Matchup of the Game: Eagles’ 26th ranked rushing attack (possibly playing without their stud RB Westbrook) vs. Ravens’ 3rd ranked rush defense. Eagles might be forced to pass on every down.
Key Injuries: Eagles - RB Brian Westbrook downgraded to questionable. Safety Brian Dawkins injured last game and is listed as questionable.
Ravens – OG David Hale is questionable. OT Willie Anderson upgraded to expected to be available. RB Willis McGahee injured last game and is listed as questionable.
Weather: Looks to be pretty mild weather for Baltimore this time of year. Game-time temperature in the mid 30s with a slight breeze.
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals
Line/Total: Giants opened -3 with the juice at -120 the total set at 48.5. There’s been zero movement on the side or total. I suspect we’ll go to Giants -3 with the juice at -125 at some point late Saturday or early Sunday morning because we’re seeing more action on the favorite.
Matchup of the Game: Giants’ top ranked rushing offense (172.7 yards/game) vs. Cardinals’ 7th ranked rushing defense (yielding 89.8 yards/game).
Key Injuries: Giants – RB Brandon Jacobs, CB Aaron Ross, LB Gerris Wilkinson, LB Jonathan Goff, LB Chase Blackburn all upgraded to probable. DE Jerome McDougle, S Sammy Knight and WR Plaxico Burress all listed as questionable.
Cardinals – LB Clark Haggans & LB Travis LaBoy both listed as questionable.
Weather: Perfect weather expected in Arizona, game-time temperatures in the mid 70s.
Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers
Line/Total: Chargers opened +2.5 and 50.5. Zero movement on the side, but sharp action has forced us to move the total to 49.5.
Matchup of the Game: QB Peyton Manning vs. the league’s worst ranked passing defense.
Key Injuries: Colts - S Melvin Bullitt and S Bob Sanders both listed as questionable. CB Kelvin Hayden upgraded to Probable.
Chargers - CB Antonio Cromartie is as probable. CB Cletis Gordon is questionable. DE Luis Castillo injured last game, listed questionable.
Weather: It’s San Diego, it’s perfect football weather for a night game. Game-time temperature around 70 degrees with a little breeze.
Where the action is: Sunday's key line moves
Houston 50.5
Cleveland -3
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 38° F, Wind SSW at 12 mph
- The pointspread opened at: Cleveland -3.5
- The total opened at: 49.5
- Where most of the bets are: Cleveland
- Where most of the money is: Cleveland
- Houston key injuries: QB Matt Schaub-knee (out)
- Cleveland key injuries: QB Brady Quinn-broken finger (probable) TE Kellen Winslow-shoulder (probable)
We have Cleveland as the clear home team favorite to win the game outright, but we give Houston a favorable chance to cover the spread.
Buffalo -3
Kansas City 42.5
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Mostly Sunny, 48° F, Wind S at 12 mph
- The pointspread opened at: Buffalo -3.5
- The total opened at: 43.5
- Where most of the bets are: Buffalo
- Where most of the money is: Kansas City
- Buffalo key injuries: CB Donte Whitner-shoulder
- Kansas City key injuries: TE Tony Gonzalez-ankle (expected to play). DE Tamba Hali-ankle. CB Patrick Surtain-quad (questionable).
We have Buffalo as moderate favorites to win outright and cover the spread on the road, but not according to the bigger bettors -- they like Kansas City +3.5
NY Jets 40.5
Tennessee -5.5
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Sunny, 47° F, Wind S at 8 mph
- The pointspread was hit by wise action on: NY Jets +6
- The total opened at: 40
- Where most of the bets are: Tennessee
- Where most of the money is: NY Jets
- NY Jets key injuries: No significant injuries.
- Tennessee key injuries: WR Justin McCareins-concussion (out). DL Kyle Vanden Bosch-groin (probable).
We have Tennessee as the clear cut favorite to win this game outright and we also have them as moderate favorites to cover their -5.5 point-spread. However, we warn caution because there is wise action on the Jets +6.
New England -1
Miami 42
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 73° F, Wind NE at 13 mph
- The pointspread opened at: Miami -2
- The total opened at: 42
- Where most of the bets are: New England
- Where most of the money is: New England
- New England key injuries: LB Jerod Mayo-undisclosed (questionable). LB Tedy Bruschi-knee (questionable)
- Miami key injuries: QB Chad Pennington-foot (probable, but not 100%)
Earlier in the week we had Miami down as a slight favorite playing at home, but since – due to a ton of one-sided action, we’ve had to flip the favorite to New England -1. It’s hard to know how the health of Chad Pennington’s foot will affect his play. We make this game a true toss-up.
San Francisco 46
Dallas -9.5
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Few Showers, 58° F, Wind S at 11 mph
- The pointspread opened at: Dallas -11
- The total opened at: 47.5
- Where most of the bets are: Dallas
- Where most of the money is: Dallas
- San Francisco key injuries: OL Jonas Jennings-shoulder (IR).
- Dallas key injuries: QB Tony Romo-pinkie finger (will wear splint). WR Terrell Owens-illness (probable). RB Felix Jones-Toe (IR)
Dallas is a monster favorite to win the game outright at home, but we give San Francisco favorable odds to cover the spread.
Tamp Bay -9
Detroit 42
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Indoor, Ford Field
- The total was hit by wise action on: Over 41
- The pointspread opened at: Tampa Bay -9
- Where most of the bets are: Tampa Bay
- Where most of the money is: Detroit
- Tampa Bay key injuries: RB Earnest Graham-ankle (IR).
- Detroit key injuries: WR Calvin Johnson-quadriceps (probable). RB Rudi Johnson-knee (probable).
Tampa Bay has huge odds to keep Detroit going on their losing track, but giving 9 points is a big gift in our minds and we will be looking to lower the line as soon as the opportunity rises. We make Detroit big favorites to cover the spread at home this week.
Philadelphia PK
Baltimore 39
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Sunny, 38° F, Wind WSW at 6 mph
- The pointspread opened at: Baltimore -1
- The total opened at: 39
- Where most of the bets are: Philadelphia
- Where most of the money is: Philadelphia
- Philadelphia key injuries: RB Brian Westbrook-ankle (questionable). S Brian Dawkins-leg (probable)
- Baltimore key injuries: RB Willis McGahee-ankle (questionable). LT Jared Gaither-shoulder (questionable). RT Willie Anderson-ankle (probable)
This is a tricky game for us to book the way we want to book it because of the lop-sided action we’ve received on Philadelphia; the line was adjusted from Baltimore -1 to PK. We give Baltimore a significant home field advantage in this one and will look to lean towards them closer to the start of the game.
Chicago -8
ST. Louis 43.5
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Indoor, Edward Jones Dome
- The pointspread opened at: Chicago -9
- The total opened at: 43.5
- Where most of the bets are: Chicago
- Where most of the money is: Chicago
- Chicago key injuries: QB Kyle Orton-ankle (will play but he’s not yet 100%). WR Marty Booker-knee (out). WR Brandon Lloyd-calf (probable)
- ST. Louis key injuries: RB Steven Jackson-thigh (out). OL Orlando Pace-knee (out)
We have Chicago down as huge favorites to win this game outright – but we have ST. Louis as moderate favorites to cover the TD+ spread at home.
Minnesota 40.5
Jacksonville -2.5
Sun 1:00 pm
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 60° F, Wind NNE at 12 mph
- The total was hit by wise action on: Over 39
- The pointspread opened at: Jacksonville -2
- Where most of the bets are: Jacksonville
- Where most of the money is: Minnesota
- Minnesota key injuries: DL Jared Allen-shoulder (probable).
- Jacksonville key injuries: WR Matt Jones-thigh (probable). LB Mike Peterson-disciplinary (probable)
We give Jacksonville a significant advantage playing at home this week, but we give Minnesota favorable odds to cover the spread.
Carolina 43
Atlanta -1
Sun 4:15 pm
Weather: Indoor, Georgia Dome
- The pointspread opened at: PK
- The total opened at: 42.5
- Where most of the bets are: Split
- Where most of the money is: Carolina
- Carolina key injuries: C Ryan Kalil-ankle (probable)
- Atlanta key injuries: WR Roddy White-back (probable)
We give Atlanta more of a home field advantage than the current odds would indicate. We will look to adjust the line again in Atlanta’s favor as soon as the opportunity presents itself.
Oakland 43
Denver -9.5
Sun 4:05 pm
Weather: Mostly Sunny, 55° F, Wind NNW at 10 mph
- The pointspread opened at: Denver -9.5
- The total opened at: 42.5
- Where most of the bets are: Denver
- Where most of the money is: Denver
- Oakland key injuries: WR Javon Walker-ankle (out for season). LB Ricky Brown-groin (doubtful).
- Denver key injuries: RB Selvin Young-groin (doubtful)
We have Denver down as the monster favorite to win this game out right at home. The only question remains is; will Denver cover the -9.5 spread? We give Denver to win by 10 or more points very probable odds.
Washington -3.5
Seattle 40.5
Sun 4:15 pm
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 48° F, Wind E at 5 mph
- The pointspread opened at: Washington -3.5
- The total opened at: 41
- Where most of the bets are: Washington
- Where most of the money is: Washington
- Washington key injuries: RB Cliton Portis-knee (will play but not 100% healthy) RB Ladell Betts-knee (probable). WR Antwan Randle-El-ankle (upgraded to probable)
- Seattle key injuries: CB Marcus Trufant-concussion (probable)
We give Washington big odds to win outright and cover the spread in Seattle this week
NY Giants -3.5
Arizona 48.5
Sun 4:15 pm
Weather: Partly Cloudy, 77° F, Wind S at 3 mph
- The total was hit by wise action on: Under 49
- The pointspread opened at: Giants -3.5
- Where most of the bets are: Giants
- Where most of the money is: Arizona
- NY Giants injuries: RB Brandon Jacobs-knee (probable) WR Plaxico Burress-hamstring (probable) CB Aaron Ross-hamstring (probable)
- Arizona injuries: No significant injuries
This will defiantly be a key game for us on Sunday. We have the Giants down as big favorites to win in Arizona. We also have the Giants as moderate favorites to cover the spread.
Indianapolis 49
San Diego -2.5
Sun 8:15 pm
Weather: Sunny, 67° F, Wind W at 4 mph
- The pointspread opened at: San Diego -3
- The total opened at: 50.5
- Where most of the bets are: Indianapolis
- Where most of the money is: Indianapolis
- Indianapolis key injuries: S Bob Sanders-knee (questionable) CB Nick Graham-ankle (IR)
- San Diego key injuries: WR Buster Davis-groin (IR) CB Antonio Cromartie-hip (probable)
San Diego holds a significant home field advantage here, but bettors are still all over Indianapolis. All season long the
Colts have been one of the most popular teams for bettors, and this game is no exception. Our move off of 3 points was solely a counter move to buck the trend. We still give San Diego solid odds to win and cover the spread.
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 12
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Why Eagles cover: Are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Willis McGahee is still battling an ankle injury. Blitz-happy defense could pressure Joe Flacco into throwing interceptions.
Why Ravens cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. League’s top rush defense should shut down Philadelphia’s running game that is averaging only 82 yards in tits last three games.
Total (40): Over is 4-0-1 in Ravens’ last five games.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Why Texans cover: Browns could be without reception leader Kellen Winslow, who has a shoulder injury. Steve Slaton is showing no signs of slowing down and goes up against Cleveland’s 28th ranked rush defense.
Why Browns cover: Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Texans have yet to win on the road this season. Houston could be without both starting defensive tackles, which should open up the run game for Jamal Lewis.
Total (50½): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-10)
Why 49ers cover: Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Tony Romo will again play with a splint on his throwing hand. Need to win to stop Arizona from clinching the division.
Why Cowboys cover: Have won two of last three meetings. San Francisco’s three wins are against teams with a combined record of 4-26. Terrell Owens should be pumped to face his old team.
Total (47): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+9)
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won four of the last five meetings. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Detroit is allowing over 170 yards per game on the ground. Jeff Garcia threw for 316 yards and two TD's against the Lions last year.
Why Lions cover: Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Detroit. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Tampa Bay will be without leading rusher Earnest Graham, who is out for the season.
Total (41): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
Why Vikings cover: Have won two of three meetings. Are fighting for the NFC North lead. Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and all but out of playoff contention.
Why Jaguars cover: Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Coach jack Del Rio vows that the team won’t give up on the season. Vikes could be without defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams, who are facing suspensions.
Total (40½): Over is 4-1 in Vikings’ last five road games.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+3)
Why Bills cover: Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Kansas City’s defense is banged up and allowing over 27 points per game.
Why Chiefs cover: Have won five of their last six meetings with the Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo is reeling and Trent Edwards has committed 10 turnovers in his last four games. Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
Total (43½): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Kansas City.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1)
Why Patriots cover: Have won three of last five meetings. Need to win to stay ahead of the Dolphins in the tight AFC East. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Dolphins cover: Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Wildcat offense burned New England for three scores in Week 3 victory. Pats gave up 34 points to the Jets last week without Adalius Thomas in the lineup.
Total (42): Under is 9-2-2 in Patriots’ last 13 vs. AFC and 5-1 in Dolphins’ last six home games.
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (+9)
Why Bears cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. St. Louis could be without Orlando Pace, Richie Incognito and Steven Jackson on offense.
Why Rams cover: Marc Bulger has thrown for 943 yards and seven TD's in three games against Chicago. Kyle Orton is still battling a sore ankle. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Total (43): Over is 6-1 in Rams’ last seven home games and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-5)
Why Jets cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Thomas Jones has come alive averaging 107 yards rushing in his last five games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Why Titans cover: Could be getting both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nick Harper back from injury to join Albert Haynesworth, who is having an MVP-caliber season. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Total (41): Under is 7-3 in Titans’ last 10 vs. AFC and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-9.5)
Why Raiders cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. AFC’s fifth best pass defense could limit Jay Cutler and the Broncos. Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Broncos cover: Have won six of last seven meetings. Coming off two road victories in which many reserves stepped up in the absence of injured starters. Oakland is averaging 8.3 points per game over their last six.
Total (42½): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Denver.
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
Why Giants cover: Have won five of the last six meetings. Are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games. Dominant pass rush could make things difficult for immobile QB Kurt Warner.
Why Cardinals cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Could clinch NFC West title this week. Bruising runner Brandon Jacobs has a knee injury and might not play.
Total (49): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Arizona.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Why Redskins cover: Have won last five regular season meetings. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Matt Hasselbeck looked terrible after missing five games, throwing three interceptions in a loss to Arizona last week.
Why Seahawks cover: Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Washington’s offense is struggling, averaging just 15.5 points per game over its last five. Clinton Portis is still dealing with a sprained knee and is a game-time decision.
Total (41): Under is 12-5-1 in Redskins last 18 games in November.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Why Panthers cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Have won three in a row at Atlanta. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Falcons cover: Michael Turner could eat up Carolina’s rush defense which is allowing close to 140 yards over its last two games. Panthers are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Atlanta.
Total (42½): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (-1)
Why Colts cover: Get to face the NFL’s worst pass defense. Joseph Addai finally recovered from his hamstring injury. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Chargers cover: Peyton Manning has thrown eight interceptions in his last two games against San Diego. Indy could be without reigning defensive player of the year Bob Sanders who has a knee injury. Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (49): Over is 4-0 in Colts’ last four road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1)
Why Packers cover: Have won six of 10 meetings in New Orleans and 14 of 20 overall. Are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Have the league’s second best pass defense, allowing only 176.3 yards per game.
Why Saints cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Have the NFL’s best passing attack. Packers have lost two straight on the road and could be without second leading receiver Donald Driver.
Total (51½): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David
Week 11 Recap
Last week started out with a shootout as the Jets edged the Patriots 34-31 in overtime. The 65 points easily went ‘over’ the 40-point closing total. After this explosion, the rest of the week quickly simmered down. The ‘under’ closed the week with an 11-5 ledger but the ‘over’ still holds a slight 79-75 (51%) on the year. The Monday Night Football ‘over’ ticket cashed again, as Cleveland and Buffalo combined for 56 points.
Houston, we have an ‘over’
Every NFL season there is usually a handful of teams that lean heavily to the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ throughout the year. Houston is a perfect example, evidenced by its 9-1 ‘over’ record and for the most part, the totals have been fairly easy too. The Texans define a perfect ‘over’ team too -- solid offense that can move the ball on the ground or through the air and the defense has had trouble stopping anybody.
Last week, the Colts put up seven scores (3 TDs, 4 FGs) against the Texans en route to a 33-27 victory at home. Houston is ranked dead-last in the league when it comes to red zone defense, giving up a 79.3 touchdown percentage. In simple terms, Houston has allowed 29 teams into its red zone and opponents have scored 23 touchdowns and four field goals. That’s only two stops folks!
This week, the Texans head to Cleveland, whose offense appears to be getting back on track. The Browns have posted four straight weeks of 23-plus points and the defense resembles Houston, giving up 37, 34 and 27.
Oddsmakers put out a number of 48 ½ and it’s jumped up to 50 ½ before coming back down to 49. Weather reports could be poor in Ohio this weekend but if you have clear skies and a slight breeze, it’s really hard not to see either team moving the sticks at will.
Second Go-Around
If you follow this column weekly, then you’re aware of the total system that I’ve followed every season. You can get all the details in Total Talk – Week 3 and how it’s followed but for now, let’s give you the three games that fit the criteria.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (34.5) – The Steelers routed the Bengals 38-10 on Oct. 19. The combined 48 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 36 points, largely due to a big second-half outburst by the Steelers. Since the first game went ‘over’, we come back with an ‘under’ in the second meeting.
New England at Miami (40.5) – The Dolphins surprised the Patriots 38-13 in Week 2 as 12 ½-point road underdogs. The 51 points scored easily eclipsed the total of 37. Enter Week 12 and the oddsmakers pushed the number up by almost four points. Again, you come back with the ‘under’ since the first game went ‘over’ by at least 11 points. Gamblers should also note that Miami has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 at home this year and the Patriots have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 as well. Seems like a good fit, right?
Oakland at Denver (42.5) – How many of you remember the classic clash played in Week 1 on MNF between the Broncos and Raiders? I’m sure not a lot of you, but it fits this total system. Denver humbled Oakland 41-14 on the road in yet another game that saw a ton of second-half points. The 55 points skipped past the 40 ½-points set by the oddsmakers and now the total for the rematch in Mile High has been set two points higher. The question is why? Denver’s defense isn’t the greatest, but Oakland’s offense is outright embarrassing lately. The ‘under’ is on a 5-1 run for Raiders and 4-1-1 roll for the Broncos. Again, looks doable.
Trend-Setters
Once again, we go back to the reliable well of Marc Lawrence and his number crunchin’ database. Here are some great trends that may or may help your handicapping this weekend.
Buffalo at Kansas City: The Bills have watched the ‘under’ go 5-0 in their last five games after a MNF home game. The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 6-0 in their last six contests versus Buffalo.
49ers at Cowboys: San Francisco has seen the ‘over’ go 8-1 in the last nine games after it has played St. Louis. Meanwhile, Dallas has watched the ‘over’ go 5-2 in its last seven games after facing the Redskins.
Oakland at Denver: The Raiders (10-2) and Broncos (8-2) have both watched the ‘over’ dominate in Game No. 11.
vegasinsider.com
AFC East Preview
By Josh Jacobs
It’s an exciting time and place in the AFC East.
The Jets have claimed first place positioning in the division, Miami has snatched up four games in a row and New England continues to be a viable contender. The count down to Week 12 is on. Bettors get you bankroll organized because it’s going to be a hell of a ride through the rest of the season.
N.Y. Jets at Tennessee – 1:00 p.m. EST
Easily the most anticipated matchup in the NFL, the Titans (10-0 straight up, 9-1 against the spread) will look to stay undefeated against the Brett Favre led Jets. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Tennessee as a 5½-point home favorite with a total of 40½.
New York has worked hard for four straight wins in a row, three consecutive ATS victories and six ‘Ws’ in the last seven games. But a contest against the Patriots last week went in favor of the Jets by the score of 34-31. Even with New England’s QB Matt Cassel going for 400 yards passing, New York was able to hang onto the victory with a 34-yard Jay Feely field goal in overtime.
The Jets cashed in as three-point underdogs in last week’s contest. A total of 40 ½ easily returned money on the ‘over,’ making it the third time to payout in New York’s last four games.
Not only are the Titans undefeated, but they’ve excelled past the 2007-08 Patriots in terms of ATS wins. New England began losing backers’ money in Week 9 through the end of the Super Bowl last season. That equated to a 2-9 ATS record in 11 games.
The season still has six weeks to play out, but Tennessee has covered all but one contest. It was Week 9’s win over Green Bay, 19-16, that had the Titans failing to cover the lone 3 ½-point spread.
On the field, analysts are banking that Tennessee’s defense will force New York into making mistakes. Although Brett Favre has allowed an improved one interception the last three weeks, the Titans know that forcing the Jets’ QB into tight situations could end up turning this game on its head.
Tennessee is third best with 15 picks, sixth best with 28 sacks and is No. 1 in take-away to give-away ratio at plus 10 (20 take-aways to 10 give-aways).
In his last two games, Titans slinger Kerry Collins has averaged a QB rating of 110.5 with a combined five TDs.
The Jets have covered their last four games in this head-to-head matchup, installed as much as nine-point ‘dogs in a December 2007 affair. New York is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games.
The ‘underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings.
New England at Miami – 1:00 p.m. EST
Brobury Sports has listed this game as a Pick’em, while other books are leaning towards Miami as a slight one-point home favorite. A total of 42 points has been installed in this contest.
It was during Week 3 that both teams met for the first time during the season. New England closed the books as a 12½-point favorite, while it was still only two weeks removed from losing QB Tom Brady for the season.
In a show of guts and glory, the Dolphins used RB Ronnie Brown to score five TDs with four scores coming off the direct snap (the now revived Wildcat play). The Patriots defense was crushed for 216 yards rushing and 245 passing.
At the end of the day, Miami closed the door on New England by a final of 38-13, collecting a huge payday on the money line at plus-550 (bettors received $550 on a $100 bet).
Miami enters this Week 12 contest with a 1-3 ATS record when favored.
The Patriots were upset as three-point favorites against the Jets last week, 34-31. Call it coincidence, but New England is 0-3 SU and ATS when its finds itself giving up 30-plus points this season.
It might pass under the radar at times due to a running back by committee approach, but the Pats finished off the loss with their third consecutive game of over 100 yards rushing. We’re talking about the eighth best rushing team in the league, averaging 132.2 YPG.
New England has failed to rack up 100-plus yards on the ground in only two games this season, one being the loss to Miami.
The Patriots are 14-5 ATS in revenge games under Coach Bill Belichick, and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in the same spot in their last nine games.
The ‘under’ is 5-1-1 in New England’s last seven following an ATS loss, and 4-1-1 in its last six overall.
The ‘under’ is 7-0 in the Dolphins last seven games played in November.
Buffalo at Kansas City – 1:00 p.m. EST
Sportsbetting.com has installed Kansas City as 3½-point home ‘underdogs with a total of 43½. This is the ninth time that the Chiefs have been facing an uphill climb as ‘dogs this season, and the fourth time as underdogs at home (the Chiefs are 2-3 ATS in five home games).
Head Coach Herm Edwards is just hoping that a win this week can help salvage a small chunk of what’s been a huge mess. Six straight losses, getting outgained in every category of every game and cycling through three QBs has been just the tip of the iceberg for the 2008-09 K.C. campaign.
At least Tyler Thigpen has made huge strides in his game. In the last four weeks of action, the gun slinger has amassed 945 passing yards with eight scores and only one pick. A 96.2 QB rating has at least helped backers collect on three of the last four games.
The Bills have taken a turn for the worst. Beginning the season with four straight wins, Buffalo has since gone 1-5 SU and ATS.
Reflecting the woes on the tail end of the season is QB Trent Edwards. The Buffalo slinger is coming off the worst performance this year, throwing three interceptions in the first quarter against Cleveland. The Bills went on to lose that contest, 29-27, while also failing to cover the spread as 4 ½-point favorites.
Edwards should find success against the Chiefs who are giving up 237.1 YPG through the air (ranked 27th). Kansas City has also allowed QBs to run amuck by applying six lonely sacks on the entire season (worst in the league).
The ‘under’ has been magical with a 6-0 record in the last six head-to-head matchups. Buffalo has been able to cover seven of the last 10 meetings with Kansas City while being installed as the favorite five times in those contests.
The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games during Week 12.
vegasinsider.com.
Four at Four
By Brian Edwards
There are four games during Sunday’s four o’clock Eastern slot. Bettors will either be chasing or pressing. Whatever the case, this quartet of matchups will be crucial, so let’s take a look.
**Panthers at Falcons**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Atlanta (6-4 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) as a one-point home favorite with a total of 40½. As of early Friday, most books had the Falcons at 1½ with the total adjusted to 42½.
--The Falcons are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Denver last week, 24-20. The Broncos pulled the mild upset as 6 ½-point road underdogs at most books, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-240 return (bettors paid $240 on $100 wagers).
--Atlanta appeared poised to post a comeback victory while driving with less than two minutes remaining. However, Matt Ryan’s perfectly-lofted pass for Roddy White in the end zone bounced off the receiver’s hands.
--Carolina (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) has won four in a row, including last week’s 31-22 home win over Detroit as a 14-point favorite. But the Panthers have to be concerned by the recent play of quarterback Jake Delhomme. He had Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow last season, but had played well for the most part until the last two games. During Delhomme’s two-game slump, he has connected on just 17-of-46 passes for 170 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions.
--John Fox turned to the ground game against the Lions and his running backs responded. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams combined for 250 rushing yards on 29 carries. Williams scored a pair of touchdowns, including a 56-yard scamper to paydirt. Stewart also scored on a 22-yard TD run.
--Atlanta is 4-1 both SU and ATS at home, beating Detroit, Kansas City, Chicago and New Orleans before last week’s loss to Denver.
--The Panthers are 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road.
--The ‘under’ is 7-3 overall for the Panthers, 3-1 in their four road games.
--The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run for the Falcons, but they have seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in their home games this season.
--The ‘under’ is 4-1 in last five head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
**Raiders at Broncos**
--Most books are listing Denver (6-4 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) as a 9½-point favorite with the total in the 42-43 range. The Raiders are plus-325 on the money line.
--Oakland (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) has lost four in a row, scoring just 31 points during that stretch. To their credit, though, the Raiders took the cash in a 17-15 loss at Miami last week as 10-point underdogs.
--Denver has won three of its five home games this season, but the Broncos are an atrocious 0-4-1 ATS at Invesco Field in the Mile High City.
--Denver All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey (groin) is “questionable” and will be a game-time decision.
--These long-time rivals met back in Week 1 and Denver spanked the Raiders by a 41-14 count as a three-point road favorite. Jay Cutler and Eddie Royal abused former Oakland CB DeAngelo Hall all night. Cutler finished with 299 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, while Royal made his NFL debut with nine receptions for 146 and one TD.
--Denver has won six of the last seven meetings against Oakland, but the Raiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five encounters.
--The ‘under’ is 5-1 in Oakland’s last six games.
**Redskins at Seahawks**
--Most spots have installed Washington (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) as a 3½-point favorite (at even money), forcing gamblers to pay double juice if taking the Seahawks. The total is 40, while Seattle (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS) is plus-150 on the money line (risk $100 to win $150).
--Seattle has lost three in a row and six of its last seven to fall completely out of the playoff picture in the last season of Mike Holmgren’s 10-year tenure. The Seahawks have covered the spread in three of their last five games, however. They have seen the ‘under’ cash in each contest during their current three-game losing streak.
--Seattle is off a 26-20 home loss to Arizona in Matt Hasselbeck’s first start since Oct. 5. The veteran signal caller threw one touchdown pass, but he was intercepted three times. The Seahawks trailed 26-7 in the final stanza, but T.J. Duckett scored on a pair of short TD runs to make the final score respectable (or misleading?).
--Jim Zorn’s squad has lost back-to-back games, including last week’s 14-10 defeat to Dallas as a one-point home underdog. The Redskins fell three games back of the division-leading Giants and into a second-place tie with the Cowboys in the NFC East.
--The ‘Skins are 3-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. After losing their season opener 16-7 to the Giants in the Meadowlands, they have won three straight on the road. Meanwhile, Seattle is 1-4 both SU and ATS at home.
--Washington quarterback Jason Campbell has made great strides under Jim Zorn’s tutelage. He has a 9/3 touchdown-interception ratio, throwing for 2,122 yards to date.
--The ‘over’ is 5-4-1 overall for Seattle.
--The ‘under’ is 7-2-1 overall for the ‘Skins, 2-1-1 in their road outings.
**Giants at Cardinals**
--As I’ve been saying for the last several weeks, the G-Men look like the NFL’s premier team to me. New York (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) is off another dominant performance, pounding Baltimore by a 30-10 count as a seven-point home favorite. Brandon Jacobs ran right at, around and through the Ravens’ vaunted defense for 73 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries. With the Giants leading 20-10 late in the third quarter, Aaron Ross put the game on ice with a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown.
--Arizona (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) is in complete control of the NFC West and almost assuredly on its way to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. The Cardinals own a four-game lead over the second-place 49ers.
--Arizona veteran quarterback Kurt Warner is enjoying an MVP type of season. He threw for 395 yards in last week’s win at Seattle. For the year, Warner has completed 70.9 percent of his passes for 3,155 yards (second-best in the NFL only to Drew Brees). He has a 20/7 TD-INT ratio.
--Warner enjoys the best 1-2 tandem of wideouts in the league, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Fitzgerald has 67 receptions for 939 yards and six TDs, while Boldin has made 62 catches for 792 yards and 10 TDs.
--Eli Manning has a 15/7 TD-INT ratio this season, but the G-Men’s offense is about its power running game and that was never more evident than in last week’s bludgeoning of the Ravens. Jacobs has scored 11 touchdowns and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
--The Giants haven’t won at Arizona since 2001, losing 21-7 in 2002 and 17-14 in 2004.
--The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these former division rivals.
--The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Cardinals, but they have seen the ‘over’ go a perfect 4-0 in their home games. The ‘over’ is 6-3-1 overall for the Giants, 3-1 in their four road games.
--Tom Coughlin’s team has been absolutely on fire, especially for our purposes. The Giants are an incredible 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games regardless of venue. On the road, they are 16-3 ATS in their last 19 games.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--St. Louis will be without RB Steven Jackson again this week. Also, perennial Pro-Bowl OT Orlando Pace is out for the rest of the season.
--Dallas WR Miles Austin is out for the next 2-4 weeks with a knee injury. Also, the ‘Boys are going to place RB Felix Jones on injured reserve as he’s going to have surgery on his toe.
--During Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio, handicapper Joe D’Amico, who is on fire with an 11-1 record on VI the last three weeks, heavily endorsed plays on both the Giants and Titans this week.
vegasinsider.com.
Heavy 'Chalk'
By Brad Young
This tip sheet is going to focus on heavy ‘chalk’ teams concerning Sunday’s early games. By heavy ‘chalk,’ I’m talking about favorites of more than a touchdown. That involves three games on Sunday’s schedule, including the San Francisco-Dallas, Tampa Bay-Detroit and the Chicago-St. Louis matchups. Two of these games list the road team as the favorites.
Now let’s take a closer look at those three contests.
**49ers at Cowboys**
-Caesars Palace installed Dallas as a 10-point home ‘chalk’ over San Francisco, with the total set at 46 ½. FOX Sports will provide coverage of this contest beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET.
-San Francisco (3-7 straight up, 4-6 against the spread) snapped out of a six-game SU losing skid by upending St. Louis last weekend as a seven-point home favorite, 35-16. The combined 51 points eclipsed the 43 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 5-0-1 the past six outings.
-The 49ers put the game away by outscoring the Rams in the second quarter, 28-3. Signal caller Shaun Hill was 15-of-20 passing for 213 yards with two touchdowns, while Frank Gore paced the ground game with 18 carries for 106 yards and a pair of scores.
-Dallas (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses its last four games after holding off Washington last weekend as a 1 ½-point road ‘chalk,’ 14-10. The combined 24 points never seriously threatened the 43-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 2-1 the previous three outings.
-The Cowboys finished the contest with advantages in first downs (17-14), rushing yards (117-92), passing yards (198-136) and time of possession (31:14-28:46). Quarterback Tony Romo completed 19-of-27 passes for 198 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Running back Marion Barber stepped up with 24 carries for 114 yards with a score, while catching six passes for 39 yards.
-Dallas outlasted San Francisco during the last meeting back in 2005 as a seven-point road favorite, 34-31. The combined 65 points went ‘over’ the 40 ½-point closing total.
-San Francisco offensive tackle Barry Sims (ankle) is ‘probable’ versus the Cowboys, while wide receiver Josh Morgan (groin) is ‘out.’ Wide receiver Arnaz Battle (foot) and safety Dashon Goldson (knee) are ‘questionable.’
-Dallas wide receiver Terrell Owens (illness) and wide receiver Isaiah Stanback (shoulder) are ‘probable’ against the 49ers, while cornerback Terence Newman (groin) is ‘questionable.’ Cornerback Adam Jones has been reinstated by the league, but won’t be eligible to play until December 7th.
-Sunday’s forecast for Dallas, Texas calls for cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of rain, with a projected high of 68 degrees and a low of 56.
**Buccaneers at Lions**
-Caesars Palace opened Tampa Bay as an eight-point road favorite over Detroit, with the total set at 41½. FOX Sports starts its coverage of this contest at 1:00 p.m. ET.
-Tampa Bay (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) is riding a modest two-game SU winning streak after beating Minnesota last weekend as a 4½-point home ‘chalk,’ 19-13. The combined 32 points failed to topple the 39-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 5-1 the previous six contests.
-The Buccaneers ended the matchup with advantages in first downs (21-14), rushing yards (108-99), passing yards (255-111), turnovers forced (2-1) and time of possession (33:49-26:11). Signal caller Jeff Garcia was 23-of-30 passing for 255 yards, while running back Warrick Dunn had 20 carries for 53 yards.
-Detroit (0-10 SU, 4-6 ATS) is still searching for its first SU victory after falling to Carolina last weekend as a two-touchdown underdog, 31-22. The combined 53 points eclipsed the 40 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash the last three games.
-The Lions actually led in a couple of key statistics, but they were unable to overcome four turnovers. New quarterback Daunte Culpepper was 20-of-35 passing for 207 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, while Kevin Smith ran 24 times for 112 yards.
-Detroit upended Tampa Bay last season as a 2½-point home favorite, 23-16, while the combined 39 points went ‘under’ the 44½-point closing total.
-Tampa Bay running back Carnell Williams (knee) is ‘probable’ against the Lions, while tight end Alex Smith (ankle) is ‘questionable.’
-Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson (quad) is ‘probable’ versus the Bucs, while center Dominic Raiola (thumb) and defensive end Dwayne White (calf) are ‘out.’ Safety Dwight Smith (foot), defensive end Jared DeVries (hand) and fullback Jerome Felton (ankle) are ‘questionable,’ while wide receiver Mike Furrey (concussion) is ‘doubtful.’
**Bears at Rams**
-Caesars Palace lists Chicago as an eight-point road ‘chalk’ over St. Louis, with the total set at 43. FOX Sports will provide coverage of this matchup beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET.
-Chicago (5-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) has dropped two games in a row SU and three consecutive contests ATS after getting roughed up by rival Green Bay last weekend as a 3½-point road underdog, 37-3. The combined 40 points went ‘under’ the 43-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second outing in a row.
-The Bears were dominated across the board, trailing the Packers in first downs (24-9), rushing yards (200-83), passing yards (227-151) and time of possession (37:28-22:32). Quarterback Kyle Orton completed 13-of-26 passes for 133 yards in the setback, while running back Matt Forte had 16 carries for 64 yards.
-St. Louis (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS) has lost four consecutive matchups SU and three in a row ATS after Sunday’s setback to San Francisco as a seven-point road underdog, 35-16. The combined 51 points toppled the 43½-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash the second consecutive contest.
-Quarterback Marc Bulger completed 34-of-53 passes for 295 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, while his favorite target was wideout Donnie Avery who caught nine passes for 93 yards. Running back Antonio Pittman stepped up with 14 carries for 95 yards in the setback.
-The Bears knocked off the Rams during the last meeting in 2006 as a 6 ½-point road favorite, 42-27. The combined 69 points soared ‘over’ the 41½-point closing total.
-Chicago offensive guard Terrence Metcalf (suspension) is ‘probable’ against the Rams, while offensive tackle Fred Miller (shoulder), wide receiver Marty Booker (knee) and linebacker Darrell McClover (hamstring) are ‘out.’
-St. Louis running back Steven Jackson (thigh), linebacker Chris Draft (foot), cornerback Tye Hill (knee) and defensive end Eric Moore (neck) are expected to miss this matchup with the Bears, while cornerback Ron Bartell (knee) is ‘doubtful.’
vegasinsider.com.
Key Stats - Week 12
By Scott Rickenbach
Heading into Week Twelve of the NFL please note these stats (all are ATS – against the spread, unless otherwise noted) are definitely items to consider as you look at the deep NFL card. However, this does not mean these are "plays" in the true sense of the word. That said, the hope is that the ATS information below helps you as you "traverse" this week’s NFL card! As always, best of luck in all your sports gaming from Scott Rickenbach
1) Carolina has a reputation as traveling well and their numbers certainly support that. The Panthers have lost the money just once in their last eight times as a divisional road dog! Their strong run could continue this week as the Falcons are just 2-5 in their last seven games against the Panthers. Also, Atlanta has not fared well at home in divisional match-ups as they’ve won the money just twice in their last eleven home games against teams from the NFC South!
2) Washington is 12-5 the week after facing Dallas. They may have a little extra fire for this next game too because they certainly weren’t happy about losing to the Cowboys in frustrating fashion last week. The fact that they now take to the road may not be such a bad thing for the Redskins either as Washington has covered five of their last six games when favored on the road. The Redskins are visiting a Seattle team that hasn’t fared well as a home dog against teams from outside the NFC West. In this situation the Seahawks have covered just three of their last ten games.
3) The Ravens are 5-1 in their last six games at home and they will be fired up about facing another NFC East foe after the Giants thrashed them by twenty points last week. Note that the Ravens were outgained by less than 100 yards last week so that was a bit of a deceiving final score. Also, the Ravens are catching the Eagles off of their ugly overtime tie at Cincinnati!
4) The Texans are known as a poor road team and they’ve earned that reputation. Houston is just 6-12 in their last 18 games as a road dog. Also, the Texans are facing a Browns team that has fared well in non-divisional games at home. Cleveland is 8-4 when favored at home against teams from outside the AFC North. Also, the Browns are starting to build momentum with Brady Quinn at quarterback. As for the Texans, it’s been a miserable season!
5) There is a lot of logic with this last one because, as you would expect with the recent history of the Patriots, they respond well after a loss and this is especially true after a divisional loss. After their last 17 divisional losses, the Patriots have responded with a cover 15 times the very next week. Those are pretty good odds and also, in the "good odds" department is the fact that the Patriots are 10-1 on the road after a loss. This one makes sense too because when a team is on the road they tend to get a more manageable line and when a good team like the Pats is off of a loss, they tend to put forth their very best effort in the next week. That could be the case again here as the Patriots are on the road at Miami where the Dolphins have not fared well against the number as in AFC East play!
Pro News & Notes
NFL WEEK 12
NY Jets @ Tennessee- Titans 9-1 ATS…have outscored opponents 127-54 in second half…83-37 in 4th qtr…Jets have won 5 of 6 since bye…34 sacks third-most in league…6 players with at least 20 receptions
New England @ Miami- both clubs 6-4, with loser probably out of playoffs…Dolphins on 4 game win streak, holding all opponents under 20 point mark…but victims have been Buff, Denver, Oak, and Seattle…combined record 15-25…Pats seeking revenge for 38-13 home loss on Sept 21st
Tampa Bay @ Detroit- Bucs 2-3 on road this season withh all 5 games decided by either 3 or 4 points…after Sunday at Ford Field, T Bay has 3 straight divisional games…Bucs D just 1 rushing TD allowed thru 10 games…Lions still scrappy despite no wins…Cal Johnson matchup problems for TB secondary
Carolina @ Atlanta- Panthers have allowed fewest pts in NFC, third fewest in league…have held 4 opponents under 10 pts…Falcons 2 games behind Carolina in division…John Abraham 11 sacks, but rest of team only 7…Falcons allowing nearly 5 yards per carry
NY Giants @ Arizona- from 2007 regular season and playoffs to today, G-Men 14-2 SU & 13-3 ATS on road…Big Blue in Top 5 turnover margin, sacks and interceptions…Cards off 3 straight division wins…Warner 70%, 3150 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT
Indianapolis @ San Diego- Colts sitting 6-4 with 3 game win streak…Chargers, Browns, Bengals, Lions, Jags, Titans remaining…San Diego has scored 20 pts or less in 4 of last 6 games…Chargers only 6 INT’s this seaosn…had that many against Manning in 1 game last year
NFL Streaks & Notes!!
sportspic.com
Week Twelve
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Broncos off back-2-back victories return to Mile High for a date with lowly Raiders and the privilege of laying 10 points. Mismatch in the making but don't be too quick laying the lumber. Contrary to popular thinking it's not as tough as one would figure coming into Mile High and winning. Shanahan's troops are just 12-9 since '06 at Invesco Field with the road teams cashing a bunch of tickets (5-15-1 ATS). Now were not saying Raiders with it's dismal 3-18 road record the past three seasons will pull the upset but Silver & Black make an interesting play at +10 knowing they were 10-11 ATS in those mentioned twenty-one road tilts, have grabbed the loot in 4-of-5 meetings with Broncos and that Denver is 2-9-1 ATS vs a losing team, 1-7 ATS in week-12. Besides, Double Digit Road Dogs have become personal ATM Machines pulling out cash at a 16-2 ATS rate this seasons which by the way includes Raiders cashing last week in Miami and at Buffalo in week-three.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Browns, coming off a much-needed win look primed to pick up a second consecutive win and second of the season in front of the home crowd. QB Brady Quinn more comfortable taking snaps should shine against struggling Texans who give up 28.7 PPG the leagues 3rd worst. Small number on Browns (-3) considering Texans are 0-5 (2-3 ATS) on the highway this season giving up a whopping 32.0 PPG and 4-16 (7-13 ATS) as road dogs the past three years. Consider Browns, they're 10-5 (12-3 ATS) home scoring >24 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
Lions are winless but have been cash cows of late grabbing the loot in 4-of-6. Bucs haven't responded well on the road, barely beat Chiefs (30-27), lost to Cowboys (13-9), nipped in Denver (16-13), squeaked one past Bears (27-24) and lost at Saints (24-20). Keep in mind Bucs were spanked 23-16 here last season which marked Lions 6th consecutive series cover. It is well to note Bucs are 3-6 ATS on the highway laying a touchdown or more, Lions 7-2 ATS L9 taking a TD or more.
Week 11 News and Notes for Week 12 NFL Profits
By Brian Hansen
Some interesting issues are uncovered when taking a close look at the Week Eleven results in the NFL. This gives us some areas to “dig a little deeper” as we head into Week Twelve of the NFL season. Each week in the NFL there are often disparate results that can lead to line value in the very next week and that is what we attempt to uncover in this News and Notes column. Here are three “tidbits” that can be taken into consideration when you are handicapping some of the match-ups on this week’s NFL card!
The Pittsburgh/San Diego match-up certainly caught the attention of a lot of interested parties after the amazing finish! Should it or should it not have been a touchdown? We all have heard the answer to that by now and there are different ways to look at this game from a wagering standpoint. Even though Pittsburgh's late score should have counted and even though that would have given them the cash in this game, a lot of San Diego backers would have been sick! That's because the Chargers were getting about 5 points and, to that point, they had only allowed 11 points in the game! From that standpoint, the Chargers deserved the cover. However, let's not forget that San Diego turned the ball over three times while the Steelers did not turn the ball over once! Pittsburgh also outgained the Chargers 410-204 in the game! It just might be that the Chargers luck may run out this week. They're hosting Indianapolis but the Chargers are off of a sloppy (and crazy!) cover last Sunday!
Houston got the cover at Indianapolis last week but the Texans had just over half the first downs that the Colts had as Indy won that battle 30 to 16. The Texans gave up 475 yards of offense in the game and could struggle this week again. They're traveling to Cleveland and are facing a Browns offense that is quickly gaining confidence with Brady Quinn at quarterback. After a bit of a "fortunate" cover last week, the Texans may not be so fortunate against a Browns team that is likely to play hard the rest of the season as they look to build momentum for next season with Quinn now under center!
The Rams lost by 19 points at San Francisco last week but outgained the 49'ers by 72 yards. As you would expect part of the culprit was turnovers for St Louis as they turned it over 3 times. The point is that the Rams, to an extent, deserved better last week and that was on the road at San Francisco. This week they are at home hosting the Bears and that's the same Chicago team that was dominated at Green Bay last week in a 37-13 final. The Bears may bounce back with a win this week but will they cover the big spread? Based on last week's results the Rams might not be as "bad off" as some think. Taking a closer look inside the numbers is the key!
FOOTBALL RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy
NCAAF
Connecticut vs. South Florida
Make no mistake about it, Connecticut is good folks and this is a big game for both of these teams. The line originally opened up at -4 for South Florida has gone down and in some ways, it reminds me of the Boston College game against Wake Forrest. Both these teams are unranked and the public favors Wake here slightly at home. Connecticut has played three straight overs here including winning a blowout game at Syracuse and that was following a 22 point loss to West Virginia at home which was a true disappointment to this team. Connecticut beat this team 22-15 at home last year but South Florida folks is stumbling. They lost at Cincy and at Louisville and then turned around and came home only to get thumped 16-49 by Rutgers. This team at some point needs to step up and it might be this game, and they have revenge, but frankly, I think Connecticut likely carries the day here, but I don't want to bet against South Florida b/c they have lost 3 in a row and come off an ugly loss, but Connecticut would be my lean here for certain.
NFL
Eagles vs. Baltimore
The Eagles come off a tie. Don't hear that often huh? I have to really give it to Baltimore, they have played well this year. They sit at 6-4. Baltimore beat this team 29-3 last year at home so in many ways, this is a revenge game for Philly. In fact, Baltimore beat this team 20-10 the year before that too at home. Looks like Philly has visited Baltimore 3 straight years. I lean on Baltimore here coming off that tough loss to the Giants on the road by a score of 10-30. Note, that Baltimore defeated the Dolphins on the road, beat Oakland by 19, beat Cleveland by 10 on the road and beat Houston by 28 on the road. Lean on the Ravens here. Besides, Westbrook has been downgraded to questionable in this game.
Houston vs. Cleveland
Look, I know Houston by no means is capable of doing what they have done in the past, but this is a game they can be very competitive in if not win outright. Having said that, Quinn has stated he will try to play. If he does not, and Anderson plays, will he might play with a chip on his shoulder trying to prove something and that could bode well for Cleveland backers and not for Houston backers. Note that 69% of the public backs Cleveland here which doesn't bode well for the home Browns. Winslow is also listed as questionable, the total has risen slightly from 49 to 50 thus far. After that ugly loss to the Colts, Houston comes off a great cover at Indy as they were catching 9 points. Cleveland comes off a huge outright win at Buffalo. Cleveland has played 3 straight overs - I lean on Houston and the over here.
San Fran vs. Dallas
Note that Romo will play in this game and Felix Jones has been ruled out. Dallas still hopes for a playoff birth in a competitive NFC East and of course, the Philly tie actually helps this team. But, right now, Dallas is no different than my NFC team the Falcons at 6-4. Of course, if they win this game, they will be at 7-4 which is a stark difference as this team will be fighting for the wild card as the Giants have all but sewn up the Division. The public as you would expect in a near double-digit spread are split on this game. JT has played well and this San Fran team seems reinvigorated with Singletary at the helm. They should have won at Arizona and won easily against St. Louis. They play a Dallas team that is looking to showcase at home after a series of tough games but did get their revenge at Washington. No lean for me either way, esp. with a double-digit spread as I don't want to lay the points but don't want to go against Romo returning home as the Cowboys will be looking to get their frustration in a blowout win over somebody to restore some morale, having said that, the 49ers are a much improved team than 3 weeks ago - probably b/c they are playing with more spirit and their jobs with a new coaching staff breathing down their necks.
Buffalo vs. Kansas City
I actually like the Chiefs here. Look, this team has played well and played well in particularly at Arrowhead. KC still consistently sells all of their home tickets out, this team nearly beat the Chargers on the road, and the Bucs at home and the Bills can't beat anybody right now as it is obvious they are pretenders rather than contenders. The public favors Buff by about 53% here and note that this is a game that KC as shocking as it may sound, behind Thigpen can win this. Sure KC lost 20-30 against New Olreans but they were competitive in that game and prior to that KC had covered 3 straight including losing 24-28 at New York. Lean on the Chiefs here, and if you have some real gonads you can take ML on the one win team.
Carolina vs. Atlanta
How badly do I want my Falcons to win. This is a revenge game for Atlanta. Carolina is an extremely physical team and a team of course that is on a vengeance course from last year when they did so terrible. Carolina is ahead in their division and frankly they lead their own destiny as do the Falcons in some way. After all, the Falcons are 6-4, they play the Panthers at home and will play the Bucs soon at home. If they win both games, they can be sitting as high as 8-4 having beaten the other two division teams - not to mention the Falcons beat the Saints already at home and the Saints will play both of those teams as well. Folks, Carolina is 8-2 and we knew they were going to be good from their road win at San Diego at the onset. Carolina beat Atlanta 24-9 earlier this year and the Falcons come off a loss, sure I will lean on Atlanta here. Of course, I stayed away from this game b/c I didn't want my emotions dictating as much.
Washington vs. Seattle
This is a game that Seattle can win outright. I actually leaned on Seattle the previous week against Arizona given that the line was not moving and Seattle had 2 great chances down the stretch under 5 minutes of winning that game. Washington has been extremely lackluster and Seattle is playing for pride behind Holmgren. Remember, Seattle is a city that has seen a lot of NFC Division titles under their belt of late, the crowd will be pumped for this game and although Washington comes off a loss themselves, I think Seattle's offense got their feet wet with Hasselbeck back and this is a game that I think they likely win outright. Besides, the biggest public play in the books today is the Redskins on the road at Seattle - lean on Seattle here for the outright as Hasslebeck likely got his feet wet in his first game back with Arizona and I think they will be more in sync on offense today. The only reason why I stayed away from making this a play is that Washington lost to Pitt and Dallas in back to back games and are 6-4 and also searing for that playoff birth as is Dallas, so I stayed away.
Football Cheat Sheet
by: Marc Lawrence
NY Jets at Tennessee
Series History: The Jets are 4-0 the last four meetings and 3-0 the last three games as a visitor.
Jets Key Stat: New York has outgained all six opponents since its Bye Week.
Titans Key Stat: Tennessee is 0-6 as a favorite after playing a division opponent.
You Need To Know: 10-0 or greater NFL teams are 18-8 SU and 8-18 ATS since 1980.
NY Giants at Arizona
Series History: Last meeting in this series was in 2005 when the Giant beat the Cardinals in New York, 42-19. The home team is 3-0 SU and ATS the last tree meetings.
Giants Key Stat: New York is 12-2 SU and ATS in its last fourteen road games.
Cardinals Key Stat: Arizona has outgained all four opponents since its Bye Week and have won 7 straight home games.
You Need To Know: The Giants are 2-15 in November off a non-division game when facing an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.
Indianapolis at San Diego
Series History: Chargers defeated the Colts, 28-24, as 10.5-point road dogs in last year’s playoffs. The visiting team in 4-1 the last five games in this series.
Colts Key Stat: Indianapolis is 9-2 in games after facing he Texans.
Chargers Key Stat: Norv Turner is 4-9 SU and ATS as a favorite of 3 or les points in games off a loss.
You Need To Know: Indy is 6-0 with revenge against losing teams.
Other Top Trends for this weekend: Tennessee is 24-1 SU against Vanderbilt, favored in all twenty-five games… Purdue head coach Joe Tiller is 16-3 at home against an opponent off back-to-back losses… West Virginia is 21-1 SU and 17-4-1 ATS as road favorites against an opponent off a loss… New England is 14-5 in division games with revenge under Bill Belichick… Denver is 0-9 as a home favorite of 5 or more points off an underdog win.