Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 2-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game's total is sitting at 46½.
The Packers lost to Houston 24-21 as a 6-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (47.5).
Aaron Rodgers threw for 295 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Green Bay and Ryan Grant rushed for 104 yards and a TD on 19 carries.
The Jaguars lost to Chicago 23-10 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined scored fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40).
David Garrard passed for 178 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Jacksonville, while Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 55 yards on 12 carries and caught seven passes for 47 yards and a touchdown.
Current streak:
Green Bay has lost 3 straight games.
Jacksonville has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Green Bay: 5-8 SU, 6-6-1 ATS
Jacksonville: 4-9 SU, 3-10 ATS
Green Bay most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 2-8
Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Green Bay's last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Jacksonville's last 10 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Next up:
Green Bay at Chicago, Monday, December 22
Jacksonville home to Indianapolis, Thursday, December 18
Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams
Oddsmakers currently have the Seahawks listed as 2½-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total is sitting at 42.
The Seahawks lost to New England 24-21 as a 7.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43).
Seneca Wallace threw for 212 yards with three touchdowns for Seattle, while Deion Branch caught four passes for 88 yards with two touchdowns.
The Rams lost to Arizona 34-10 as a 14.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48.5).
Marc Bulger threw for 228 yards with a touchdown and an interception for St. Louis and Steven Jackson rushed for 64 yards on 19 carries with a TD catch.
Current streak:
Seattle has lost 6 straight games.
St. Louis has lost 7 straight games.
Team records:
Seattle: 2-11 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
St. Louis: 2-11 SU, 4-9 ATS
Seattle most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing within the division are 7-3
St. Louis most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing within the division are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games
St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Next up:
Seattle home to NY Jets, Sunday, December 21
St. Louis home to San Francisco, Sunday, December 21
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Oddsmakers currently have the Jets listed as 8-point favorites versus the Bills, while the game's total is sitting at 41.
The Bills lost to Miami 16-3 as a 2-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42.5).
J.P. Losman threw for 123 yards with an interception for Buffalo and Marshawn Lynch rushed for 31 yards on 13 carries.
The Jets lost to San Francisco 24-14 as a 5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (45.5).
Brett Favre passed for 137 yards with an interception and a TD run for the Jets and Thomas Jones rushed for 56 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.
Current streak:
Buffalo has lost 2 straight games.
New York has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Buffalo: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS
New York: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 4-6
New York most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games at home
NY Jets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
Next up:
Buffalo at Denver, Sunday, December 21
NY Jets at Seattle, Sunday, December 21
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins
Oddsmakers currently have the Dolphins listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total is sitting at 41.
The 49ers defeated the Jets 24-14 as a 5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (45.5).
Shaun Hill passed for 285 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for San Francisco, while Frank Gore rushed for 52 yards on 14 carries with a TD catch in the win.
The Dolphins defeated Buffalo 16-3 as a 2-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Chad Pennington passed for 181 yards with a touchdown pass for Miami, while Dan Carpenter kicked three field goals in the win.
Current streak:
San Francisco has won 2 straight games.
Miami has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
San Francisco: 5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS
Miami: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
San Francisco most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 4-6
Miami most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
San Francisco at St. Louis, Sunday, December 21
Miami at Kansas City, Sunday, December 21
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 6-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
Philip Rivers threw three TD passes in leading the Chargers to a 34-7 win over the Raiders last time out. The Chargers covered the 9-point spread, while the 41 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 41.
Rivers completed 10-of-22 for 214 yards, and Darren Sproles caught two TD passes in the win.
The Chiefs lost to Denver 24-17 as a 9-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (49).
Tyler Thigpen threw for 187 yards and a touchdown for Kansas City and Dwayne Bowe caught seven passes for 96 yards.
Team records:
San Diego: 5-8 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Kansas City: 2-11 SU, 7-6 ATS
San Diego most recently:
When playing in December are 10-0
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 8-2
Kansas City most recently:
When playing in December are 2-8
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing within the division are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
San Diego is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
San Diego is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing San Diego
Next up:
San Diego at Tampa Bay, Sunday, December 21
Kansas City home to Miami, Sunday, December 21
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts
Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 17-point favorites versus the Lions, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
The Lions lost to Minnesota 20-16 as a 10-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (45.5).
Daunte Culpepper passed for 220 yards with a touchdown for Detroit and Calvin Johnson had three catches for 84 yards with a TD.
The Colts defeated Cincinnati 35-3 as a 13.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42).
Peyton Manning passed for 277 yards with three touchdown passes for the Colts, while Marvin Harrison caught three passes for 78 yards and a touchdown.
Current streak:
Detroit has lost 13 straight games.
Indianapolis has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Detroit: 0-13 SU, 5-8 ATS
Indianapolis: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS
Detroit most recently:
When playing in December are 2-8
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing outside the division are 1-9
Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Next up:
Detroit home to New Orleans, Sunday, December 21
Indianapolis at Jacksonville, Thursday, December 18
Washington Redskins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Oddsmakers currently have the Redskins listed as 7-point favorites versus the Bengals, while the game's total is sitting at 36½.
The Redskins lost to Baltimore 24-10 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (35).
Jason Campbell threw for 218 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Washington and Clinton Portis rushed for 32 yards on 11 carries.
The Bengals lost to Indianapolis 35-3 as a 13.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42).
Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 170 yards with two interceptions for Cincinnati and Cedric Benson rushed for 57 yards on 16 carries.
Current streak:
Washington has lost 2 straight games.
Cincinnati has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Washington: 7-6 SU, 5-7-1 ATS
Cincinnati: 1-11-1 SU, 4-9 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 1-8-1
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing on outside the division are 2-7-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Washington home to Philadelphia, Sunday, December 21
Cincinnati at Cleveland, Sunday, December 21
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Texans, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
The Titans defeated Cleveland 28-9 as a 14-point favorite last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (37).
Chris Johnson rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries for Tennessee and Kerry Collins passed for 155 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the win.
The Texans defeated Green Bay 24-21 as a 6-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (47.5).
Matt Schaub passed for 414 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Houston, while Ken Walter caught six passes for 146 yards with a touchdown in the win.
Current streak:
Tennessee has won 2 straight games.
Houston has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Tennessee: 12-1 SU, 11-1-1 ATS
Houston: 6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS
Tennessee most recently:
When playing in December are 8-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 8-2
Houston most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Tennessee home to Pittsburgh, Sunday, December 21
Houston at Oakland, Sunday, December 21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 3-point favorites versus the Buccaneers, while the game's total is sitting at 44½.
The Buccaneers got two touchdown strikes from Jeff Garcia on Monday night in their 38-23 loss to the Panthers.
The Panthers managed to cover the 3-point spread at home in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the night's posted total (40.5).
The Falcons lost to New Orleans 29-25 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (51.5).
Matt Ryan threw for 315 yards with a touchdown and an interception as well as a TD run for Atlanta, while Michal Turner rushed for 61 yards and a TD on 18 carries.
Team records:
Tampa Bay: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS
Atlanta: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS
Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 7-3
Atlanta most recently:
When playing in December are 2-8
When playing on turf are 6-4
When playing within the division are 3-7
Before playing Minnesota are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Next up:
Tampa Bay home to San Diego, Sunday, December 21
Atlanta at Minnesota, Sunday, December 21
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 3-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game's total is sitting at 46½.
The Vikings defeated Detroit 20-16 as a 10-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (45.5).
Tarvaris Jackson completed 8-of-10 passes for 105 yards with a touchdown after replacing an injured Gus Frerotte for Minnesota, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 102 yards on 23 carries in the win.
The Cardinals defeated St. Louis 34-10 as a 14.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48.5).
Kurt Warner passed for 279 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Arizona, while Larry Fitzgerald caught six passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in the win.
Current streak:
Minnesota has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Minnesota: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS
Arizona: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Arizona most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
Minnesota home to Atlanta, Sunday, December 21
Arizona at New England, Sunday, December 21
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 3-point favorites versus the Steelers, while the game's total is sitting at 34.
The Steelers defeated Dallas 20-13 as a 4-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).
Ben Roethlisberger passed for 204 yards with a touchdown for Pittsburgh and Santonio Holmes caught three passes for 82 yards.
The Ravens defeated Washington 24-20 as a 6.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (35).
Joe Flacco passed for 134 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Baltimore, while Le'Ron McClain rushed for 61 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries.
Current streak:
Pittsburgh has won 4 straight games.
Baltimore has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Pittsburgh: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS
Baltimore: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the division are 9-1
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
Pittsburgh at Tennessee, Sunday, December 21
Baltimore at Dallas, Saturday, December 20
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 48.
The Broncos defeated Kansas City 24-17 as a 9-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (49).
Brandon Marshall caught 11 passes for 91 yards with a pair of touchdowns for Denver, while Jay Culter passed for 286 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.
The Panthers scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter on Monday night to knock off the rival Buccaneers 38-23.
The Panthers managed to cover the 3-point spread at home in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the night's posted total (40.5).
Current streak:
Denver has won 2 straight games.
Carolina has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Denver: 8-5 SU, 4-8-1 ATS
Carolina: 10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS
Denver most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Carolina most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 13 games on the road
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games at home
Next up:
Denver home to Buffalo, Sunday, December 21
Carolina at NY Giants, Sunday, December 21
New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 7-point favorites versus the Raiders, while the game's total is sitting at 39.
The Patriots defeated Seattle 24-21 as a 7.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43).
Matt Cassel passed for 268 yards with a touchdown for New England and Wes Welker caught 12 passes for 134 yards.
The Raiders were defeated 34-7 by the Chargers last time out, as 9-point road underdogs. The 41 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 41.
Zach Miller had 64 yards receiving off eight catches.
Current streak:
Oakland has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
New England: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Oakland: 3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS
New England most recently:
When playing in December are 9-1
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Oakland most recently:
When playing in December are 1-9
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
New England is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
New England home to Arizona, Sunday, December 21
Oakland home to Houston, Sunday, December 21
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys listed as 3-point favorites versus the Giants, while the game's total is sitting at 45½.
The Giants lost to Philadelphia 20-14 as a 7-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Eli Manning threw for 123 yards with a touchdown for the Giants and Brandon Jacobs rushed for 52 yards on 10 carries.
The Cowboys lost to Pittsburgh 20-13 as a 4-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (38.5).
Tony Romo threw for 210 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for Dallas, while Terrell Owens caught three passes for 32 yards with a touchdown.
Team records:
New York: 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS
Dallas: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 8-2
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 7-3
Dallas most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
NY Giants are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games on the road
NY Giants are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games on the road
NY Giants are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games
NY Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 14 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Next up:
NY Giants home to Carolina, Sunday, December 21
Dallas home to Baltimore, Saturday, December 20
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 15
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won three straight meetings outscoring Atlanta 92-19. Are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings and 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Atlanta. Can clinch a playoff birth with win. Held Matt Ryan to 158 yards and two interceptions with no TDs Week 2.
Why Falcons cover: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Michael Turner could burn a Bucs’ defense that gave up almost 300 yards on the ground last week. This season the home team has won all 10 NFC South division games.
Total (44½): Over is 9-2 in Buccaneers’ last 11 road games and 8-2 in Falcons’ last 10 home games.
Washington Redskins at Cincinnati Bengals (+6½)
Why Redskins cover: Clinton Portis will be motivated to prove his comments about not playing enough last week were warranted. Cincinnati has been outscored 109–29 since its Week 10 bye. Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
Why Bengals cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Washington’s offensive line suffered a huge loss last week losing left tackle Chris Samuels for the season. Right tackle Jon Jansen is also hurting with a knee injury. Redskins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Total (36): Under is 8-0-1 in Redskins’ last nine games.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+3)
Why Titans cover: Have won seven straight meetings. Are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win and a Steelers’ loss. Rushing tandem of LenDale White and Chris Johnson could have another big day against the Texans’ 24th ranked rush defense.
Why Texans cover: Steve Slaton rushed for 116 yards (6.4 average) and a TD Week 3 against Tennessee. Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Matt Schaub looked great in his return from injury last week throwing for 414 yards and two TDs.
Total (44): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Houston.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-17)
Why Lions cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Trying to avoid going winless and are running out of opportunities. Joseph Addai is unlikely to be available for this meeting.
Why Colts cover: Have won four of last six meetings. Have only allowed four passing TDs this season. Dan Orlovsky is likely to start at QB for the injured Daunte Culpepper. Detroit is giving up 31.8 points per game to opponents this season.
Total (44½): Over is 8-2 in Lions’ last 10 road games.
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)
Why Packers cover: Are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games. Trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. Jacksonville is averaging just over 13 points per game in its last four, all losses. Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Visiting team has won every meeting.
Why Jaguars cover: With Fred Taylor out for the season, Maurice Jones-Drew will get to showcase as the every-down back and could batter the Packers’ 27th ranked rush defense. Green Bay was pounded for 549 total yards by the Texans last week.
Total (44½): Under is 5-2-1 in Jaguars last eight games.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+5)
Why Chargers cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Trying to keep slim playoff hopes alive. Chiefs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Chiefs have the NFL’s worst defense and on offense are only averaging 17.9 points per contest.
Why Chiefs cover: Are tied for eighth in the league with 24 takeaways. Picked off Philip Rivers twice in 1-point loss Week 10 as 14.5-point underdogs. Chargers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Kansas City. Underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Larry Johnson has rushed for 525 yards and scored four TDs in his last five games against San Diego.
Total (46): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-6½)
Why 49ers cover: Have won five of last six meetings. After knocking off the AFC East-leading Jets last week, quarterback Shaun Hill is now 5-2 as a starter for his career and making a strong case to keep the job in 2009. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Why Dolphins cover: Still have a chance to clinch the AFC East title. Own the league’s best turnover ratio at plus-12. Niners are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. San Francisco could be without Frank Gore who has an ankle injury.
Total (41½): Under is 6-1 in Dolphins’ last seven games.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7)
Why Bills cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Brett Favre hasn’t thrown a TD pass in his last two games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Jets cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East. J.P. Losman, who holds the ball to long and is prone to getting sacked, could start at QB for the Bills again in place of injured Trent Edwards. Buffalo has fallen into the basement in the AFC East after a 5-1 start.
Total (41): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+3)
Why Seahawks cover: Have won seven straight meetings. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NFC West. Have been keeping games close against tough playoff contenders in recent weeks.
Why Rams cover: Seahawks could be without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck who might shut it down for the season because of a back injury. Could move the ball through the air against the NFL’s worst pass defense.
Total (43): Under is 5-2 in Rams’ last seven games and 5-1 in Seahawks’ last six games.
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-3)
Why Vikings cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Can clinch the NFC North title with a win and a Chicago loss. Will have run stoppers Kevin and Pat Williams available to shut down Arizona’s league-worst rushing attack.
Why Cardinals cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. QB Tarvaris Jackson who was benched early in the season will start for Minnesota in place of injured Gus Frerotte. Can improve on their playoff position with a win.
Total (47½): Over is 7-1 in Cardinals’ last eight home games and 5-2 in Vikings’ last seven games overall.
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+7)
Why Patriots cover: Stayed on the West Coast to avoid battling the time change that comes with crossing time zones. Trying to keep playoffs hopes alive. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. JaMarcus Russell is dealing with a sprained ankle that will limit his mobility.
Why Raiders cover: Have won three of last four regular-season meetings. Patriots are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games. Matt Cassel is dealing with the death of his father. New England’s defense is extremely beat up with many starters either out or playing injured.
Total (40): Under is 4-0 in Raiders’ last four home games, 5-0-1 in their last six games overall and 9-4-2 in Patriots’ last 15 vs. AFC.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Why Steelers cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 with 400 yards passing and six touchdowns in his last two games against Baltimore. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Ravens cover: Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Baltimore. Pass rush could complicate things for Pittsburgh who has allowed 41 sacks this season.
Total (34): League’s top two defenses face off.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-7½)
Why Broncos cover: Have won both previous meetings. Have won three straight on the road. Own league’s second best offense. Can clinch the AFC West with a win.
Why Panthers cover: Are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. NFL’s 3rd best rushing attack should have no problem running over Denver’s 26th ranked rush defense. Broncos lost another running back for the season last week when Peyton Hillis went down with a hamstring injury.
Total (47): Over is 4-1-1 in Broncos’ last six road games and 4-0 in Panthers’ last four games overall.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Why Giants cover: Have won last two meetings. Are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Cowboy’s could be without Marion Barber again who is battling a dislocated toe. Will want to bounce back from disappointing loss last week and can clinch a first-round bye.
Why Cowboys cover: Fighting for their playoff lives. Giants’ bruising running back Brandon Jacobs is doubtful for this game. Favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Tony Romo has something to prove this week after throwing away last week’s game in the final quarter.
Total (44): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
Why Browns cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Beat the Giants and Bills in Monday night games this season. Are trying to incorporate stellar kick-returner Joshua Cribbs into the offense by employing the “Wildcat” offense.
Why Eagles cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games. Fighting for a wild-card spot. Browns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games. Cleveland hasn’t scored a TD in three straight games and is averaging only seven points per game during that span. Brian Westbrook appears to be healthy after struggling with injuries for most of the season.
Total (38): Under is 13-6 in Browns’ last 19 games and 6-2 in Eagles’ last eight home games.
Early NFL Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 p.m. EST
Most sportsbooks have installed the Colts as 17-point home favorites for this contest with a total of 45.
Detroit couldn’t break into the win column last Sunday against the Vikings, losing 20-16. It was the Lions’ 13th straight defeat of the year 20th loss they have suffered in their past 21 regular season matches. They did cover the 10 ½-point spread on the road, which improves the Kittens to 5-4 against the spread in their past nine games.
Indianapolis appears to have figured out how to win at home now, posting a 4-0 record SU at Lucas Oil Stadium. Yet the Colts’ 35-3 victory over Cincinnati as 13 ½-point favorites was the second time they’ve covered the number at home this year (2-6 ATS).
The Lions must answer a major question under center this week. Daunte Culpepper has started the last five games for Detroit, but has thrown just four touchdowns to six interceptions. He hurt his throwing shoulder last Sunday against the Vikes and is now listed as “doubtful” for Week 15.
The popular thinking is that Dan Orlovsky will take the reins back over, but he will be playing with a broken thumb that has kept him out since the beginning of November. Should Orlovsky not be ready to play, Michigan State product Drew Stanton will be under center. Stanton would be the safest choice, injury wise, but he has thrown just 14 passes this year.
Peyton Manning is starting to look like the signal caller we all know in his last six starts, completing 68 percent of his passes for 1,471 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Manning has posted a respectable 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS mark over teams from the NFC North in the regular season. The Colts have also seen the ‘over’ go 6-3-1 in that stretch.
Detroit hasn’t had luck against the AFC South as evidenced by going 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS since 2002. The ‘over’ has gone 5-2 in those meetings for the Lions as well.
Washington Redskins at Cincinnati Bengals – 1:00 p.m. EST
The Redskins have effectively played their way out of the NFC playoff chase by losing four of their last five games both SU and ATS after opening this season with 6-2 record.
Cincinnati suffered a humiliating 35-3 defeat as a 13 ½-point road underdog against the Colts last Sunday. The loss dropped the Bengals to 2-5 ATS in road games this season.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have listed Washington as a seven-point road “chalk” with a total that is holding steady at 36½. Bettors can take the Bengals to pull off the upset at plus-250 (risk $100 to win $250).
The Bengals stated the obvious as Carson Palmer (elbow) will be “out” for this week’s game. That means Ryan Fitzpatrick will be back under for Cincy this Sunday. The Harvard alum completed just 18 of 26 passes for 170 yards and a pair of picks against the Colt s last week.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (back) is “probable” for this week’s contest, which will be good considering he has 89 receptions this year.
Washington will be hoping to find a way to protect Jason Campbell this weekend. It’s evident that Campbell is rushing his passes since he actually has thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdowns (three) over the last five games. Of course, you can’t really make quality throws when you know your offensive line can’t stop a light pass rush. How else can you explain that Campbell has been sacked 18 times in the past five matches?
Jim Zorn will also be looking for Clinton Portis to have a good performance against Cincy this weekend. Portis has rushed for 201 yards and a pair of scores in two games against the Bengals during his career. That could be a challenge for him as Cincinnati held the Colts to just 57 yards on the ground last week.
Cincy is 2-4 ATS at Paul Brown Stadium this season. The ‘over’ is on a 3-1 run at home for the Bengals as well.
The Bungles have done well against the Redskins in the past, winning the last four meetings both SU and ATS. The ‘under’ is 3-1 during that timeframe.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 p.m. EST
Major playoff implications are on the line between the Falcons and Bucs at the Georgia Dome this Sunday. LVSC has made Atlanta a three-point home favorite, which is a standard line for any home team in the NFL. The total has held steady as well at 44½. Tampa Bay is plus-135 on the money line (risk $100 to win $135).
Tampa Bay’s hopes of winning the NFC South for the second year in a row took a major hit last Monday in a 38-23 defeat as a three-point road ‘dog versus the Panthers. What was surprising about this loss was how bad the Bucs’ defense performed in Charlotte. The Buccaneers were ran all over by Carolina to the tune of 299 rushing yards. It also doesn’t help that the Panthers converted eight of their 10 third downs.
Atlanta looked like it was on its way to winning at the Superdome versus the Saints when they took a 25-22 lead midway through the fourth quarter. But the Falcons gave up an 88-yard kickoff return that New Orleans turned into a touchdown for a 29-25 loss as three-point road underdogs.
LVSC is expecting a close affair for this game by making the Falcons three-point home favorites with a total of 44½. Tampa Bay can be played on the money line for a plus-135 return (risk $100 to win $135).
Atlanta has been dominant at the Georgia Dome this year, going 5-1 SU and ATS. The Buccaneers have not fared all that well away from home with a 3-4 SU and ATS record on the road this season.
Home teams in this head-to-head matchup are 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in the last 10 games. Tampa Bay has won and covered the number in its last three games against the Dirty Birds.
The Bucs crushed Atlanta in the first meeting as seven-point home favorites, 24-9, on Sept. 14. That might not be such a good thing since they beat Carolina at Raymond James Stadium as 1½-point home faves, 27-3, on Oct. 12. The Panthers ran them over in the rematch. That could happen once again this week as Michael Turner has rushed for 1,269 yards and 14 scores this season. Also, Jeff Garcia (calf) is “questionable” for this contest for Tampa Bay.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets – 1:00 p.m. EST
Most betting shops have tabbed the Jets as 7½-point home favorites with a total that is standing still at 41. You can back the Bills to win it outright for a plus-280 payout (risk $100 to win $280).
A home tilt in Toronto couldn’t get Buffalo a win, dropping a 16-3 decision as a 1½-point “chalk” against the Dolphins at Rogers Centre. It was the Bills fourth straight home defeat both SU and ATS.
These clubs met just six weeks ago when New York snared a 26-17 victory as a five-point road pup. The Bills were only able to rush for 30 yards in that contest; Marshawn Lynch accounted for 16 yards…his worst output of the season.
The Jets are 4-2 SU at Giants Stadium this year, but just 3-3 ATS. Buffalo is 3-3 SU and ATS on the road in 2008.
The ‘over’ is 5-2 in New York’s last seven games this season. The Bills, on the other hand, have watched the ‘under’ post a 5-2 record.
Even though the Jets will be at home, it’s the road squad that has paid out nicely in the recent battles with a 4-1 SU and ATS record.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans – 1:00 p.m. EST
The Titans may have the best record in the NFL, but the betting shops are only making them three-point road favorites with a total of 45. Houston can be back on the money line for a return of plus-145 (risk $100 to win $145).
Tennessee has already clinched the AFC South championship for this season with a 28-9 victory over the Browns as a 14-point home “chalk’ last Sunday. Chris Johnson continues his fantastic rookie campaign with 19 carries for 136 yards and a score against the Browns in Week 14.
The Texans have been eliminated from playoff contention, but that didn’t stop them from taking down Green Bay as seven-point road ‘dogs last Sunday, 24-21. Matt Schaub came out firing by completing 28 of 42 passes for 414 yards with a pair of touchdowns in Houston’s win.
Jeff Fisher’s Titans are the best road bet in the NFL this season, going 6-0 SU and ATS. Houston is 4-2 SU at Reliant Stadium, but just 2-3-1 where it matters to us most.
Tennessee has gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Texans. The ‘over’ is 6-1 in that stretch as well.
vegasinsider.com
West Coast Preview
By Josh Jacobs
This week’s early NFL preview will dip into three matchups involving teams making the long trek across country to face East Coast foes. We’ve gone through this type of breakdown before but the fact remains that West Coast teams chartering those flights involving time change have continued to underachieve.
Whether you want to include the Cardinals into this equation or not (they're in the Mountain Time Zone) is really a moot point. So if we just take Oakland, San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle we’re looking at West Coast teams posting a 4-9 against the spread record.
This is far from being a new occurrence in sports let alone the NFL but its been another system to follow for your benefit. This week will have San Francisco traveling to Miami as the lone cross country contest. But it’s also worth looking at Seattle going to St. Louis and San Diego boarding its flight to Kansas City this weekend. Anyway you slice it, teams leaving the West Coast for 1:00 p.m. EST games are having major problems (these records can vary depending on one or two hour time zone shifts so ATS numbers could vary).
San Francisco at Miami (-6.5, 41.5)
Here’s a team that could be worse off if it traveled more to the East Coast. Counting losses in New Orleans (Central Time) and Dallas (Central Time), the 49ers have put together a 3-1 SU and ATS record when traveling across time zones. However a win in Buffalo (10-3) on Week 13’s card finally broke the traveling blues. San Francisco covered the 6½-point cushion with the straight up victory.
The 49ers will enter the southern tip of the United States with a 3-3 ATS record on the road, averaging 20.5 PPG while giving up 26.2 PPG. There’s no doubt that coach Mike Singletary has his team not only turning recent profits with a 4-1 ATS record but a 3-1 SU performance in the last four has been a plus.
If you’re looking towards the home team in this spot beware that Miami is 1-4 ATS in the five games it has played when giving up the points. When books have posted the Dolphins as the favorite the team has gone onto average just 18.4 PPG versus 22 PPG as underdogs.
Miami will enter Sunday with a 7-22-1 ATS slide versus a team with a losing record and a 3-8-1 ATS free fall in the last 12 games played during Week 15.
The Dolphins are coming off a 16-3 win over Buffalo last week North of Boarder (in Toronto). Miami outyarded the drooping Bills by 132 yards (101 more passing yards plus 31 more rushing yards). Running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for 110 yards while QB Chad Pennington did just enough to win the contest, going 23-for-29 with 181 passing yards and one TD.
The 49ers will travel into Miami with a 4-9 ATS record in its last 13 road games.
Seattle (-3, 43) at St. Louis
Depending on what book(s) you choice to use, Seattle has been installed anywhere from a one-to-three-point road favorite. Why? That’s a great question.
The Seahawks have been outyarded in all but one game. Coincidentally, Seattle’s first win of the season came against the Rams in Week 3 by the score of 37-13. The running game was the end result to the ‘W’ with Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett combining for 219 yards with three trips into the end zone.
Scoring just 15.7 PPG in the last three games is indication of the Seahawks’ weak offensive unit. But compare that to the Rams’ posting 8.3 PPG of 76 rushing YPG in the last three and we’re looking at an offense at its very worst.
Seattle has taken the last seven straight head-to-head meetings against St. Louis by an average score of 30.9 to 19.3 PPG. More importantly is the Seahawks returning money at the window five times in those same seven games.
If you’re looking for an edge with home field position you’re not going to find it in this contest. St. Louis is a measly 2-4 ATS at home this year (4-5 ATS on turf though) while Seattle is 3-3 ATS on the road and a terrible 2-5-1 ATS on the fake stuff (turf).
The Rams have dropped seven games in a row and are just 1-6 ATS during this tumultuous slide. At least the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in St. Louis’ last seven. Combine that with the Seahawks’ ‘under’ at 5-1 and we could be looking at something here.
This will be the first time that Seattle has been installed as a road favorite this season (including pre-season games).
And sticking with the theme at hand, Seattle is 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS when traveling across time zones (both the central and east). This contest will be fought in a central time zone.
San Diego (+5.5, 45.5) at Kansas City
While it’s another game that doesn’t fit directly into our West to East Coast system (only an hour time zone shift), the overall affect of playing at 1:00 p.m. EST for these Pacific Rim teams has been equally devastating.
In overwhelming fashion, 68-percent of the betting public has decided to side with the Chargers as 5 ½-point favorites. While San Diego has been a bum at the books (3-4 ATS at home and 2-2-1 ATS on the road), Kansas City has chocked at the counter with a 2-4 ATS billing inside Arrow Head Stadium.
Then again, the Chiefs have covered two straight and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven. When installed as 3 ½ to 6 ½-point underdogs, K.C. has amassed an 0-2 ATS record.
The Chargers have seen success in their own division with a 3-1 SU and ATS record. QB Philip Rivers has helped San Diego in its three divisional wins by passing for 1,087 yards, completing 62.1 percent of his passes while finding the end zone nine times for a 100.8 QB rating.
These two teams last me in San Diego during Week 10. The ‘Bolts found themselves in a lucky, 20-19 victory after coach Herm Edwards decided to go for the two-point conversion with 23 seconds left in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs’ signal caller Tyler Thigpen found his receivers three times in the end zone but an errant pass for the conversion to TE Tony Gonzalez resulted in the club’s eighth loss of the season in as many weeks.
The Chiefs haven’t scored a victory at home since Week 4 against Denver, 33-19. The team has been favored just once this season (minus 3 ½-points in a 23-8 loss against Oakland) and has been installed as a nine to 14 ½-point underdog a total of eight times this season.
This is the first game that San Diego will play on the road since losing to Pittsburgh, 11-10 during Week 11. Since then the Chargers are 1-2 SU and ATS in the last three.
Kansas City is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games. The underdog is 6-2 in its last eight and the ‘dog is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 meetings.
The Chiefs are 4-2 on the ‘over’ at home this season.
The Chargers reflect the time travel problem by going 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in five games played in the Central and Eastern time zones.
vegasinsider.com
Four at Four
By B Edwards
Gamblers have a quartet of late games to chase or press through Sunday in Week 15 of the NFL season. The marquee matchup will go down in Baltimore, where the Steelers and Ravens are jockeying for a division title and playoff positioning. Let’s take a look…
**Steelers at Ravens**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Baltimore (9-4 straight up, 10-3 against the spread) as a 2½-point favorite with a total of 35. As of Saturday afternoon, most spots had the Ravens at 2½ with a total of 34. Bettors can take the Steelers to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125).
--"Everyone's giving some lovin' to the 'over' in this game," said Eddie Franks, Head Oddsmaker at Brobury Sports. "We've already moved the number 1.5 points, going up from 33 to 34.5. In addition to the perfect weather projected for Sunday, both teams have been putting up solid points over the last three weeks (BAL 31.3 PPG and PIT 26.66 PPG). No one seems to believe that these two great defenses are going to be able to contain either offense."
--Thanks to brilliant play from its defense, Pittsburgh (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) has won four in a row and covered the spread in each of its last three outings. The Steelers rallied in the fourth quarter to capture a 20-13 home win over Dallas last week as 3 ½-point home favorites.
--Mike Tomlin’s team faced a 13-6 deficit late in the fourth quarter against the Cowboys until Ben Roethlisberger connected with tight end Heath Miller for a six-yard scoring strike. Several plays later, Deshea Townsend intercepted a Tony Romo pass and returned it 26 yards for the game-winning touchdown.
--John Harbaugh has done an outstanding job in his first head-coaching gig. He has led the Ravens on a 7-1 run both SU and ATS in their last eight games. That leaves his squad just one game back of the division-leading Steelers in the AFC North.
--Baltimore rookie quarterback Joe Flacco has completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 2,410 yards with a 13/10 touchdown-interception ratio. However, Flacco’s TD-INT ratio has been outstanding in recent weeks. In fact, the Delaware product has 12 TD passes compared to just three picks in the Ravens’ last eight games.
--Roethlisberger has been dealing with a number of injuries that have impacted his play this season, but he appears to be back to 100 percent now. Nevertheless, we have to point out his mediocre 14/12 TD-INT ratio compared to 98/66 for his career.
--The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home. Likewise, the Steelers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road.
--Pittsburgh owns a 3-1 record both SU and ATS as an underdog this season. The Steelers won outright at Jacksonville, at Washington and at New England.
--Baltimore has won five of the last six head-to-head meetings between these long-time division rivals. Even better, the Ravens are 6-1 ATS in the last seven encounters. The ‘over’ has hit in four straight Pittsburgh-Baltimore meetings.
--When these teams met on Sep. 29, Baltimore led nearly the entire game only to eventually drop a 23-20 decision. Nevertheless, the Ravens hooked up their backers as six-point underdogs.
--The ‘over’ is 8-4-1 overall for the Ravens, but just 3-3 in their home games. The ‘over’ is 7-6 overall for the Steelers, 3-3 in their road assignments.
**Broncos at Panthers**
--LVSC opened Carolina (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had the Panthers at 7½ with the total unchanged. Bettors can collect an attractive plus-260 payout by backing the Broncos to win outright.
--Denver (8-5 SU, 4-8-1 ATS) has played its best football on the road, posting a 4-2 record both SU and ATS. The Broncos have won three in a row on the road, winning at Cleveland, at Atlanta and at New York against the Jets.
--Carolina is on a short week of preparation after pounding Tampa Bay 38-23 Monday as a three-point home favorite. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart erupted for monster games against the Bucs. Williams had 19 carries for 186 yards and two TDs, while Stewart, the rookie from out of Oregon, ran for 115 yards and a pair of TDs on just 15 totes.
--The Broncos have won back-to-back games and four of their last five. They are off a 24-17 home win over Kansas City, but they remained winless ATS at home by failing to cover as nine-point favorites. Jay Cutler completed 32-of-40 passes for 286 yards and a pair of TDs. Brandon Marshall had 11 receptions for 91 yards and two TDs.
--Cutler has a 23/14 TD-INT ratio. He’s third in the NFL in passing yards with 3,679.
--Denver’s rash of injuries at the running back position continued last week when Peyton Hillis went down with a hamstring injury that’ll keep him out for the rest of the season. Hillis had emerged as the team’s go-to back and was astonishingly having a better rookie campaign than his backfield teammates at Arkansas (Felix Jones and Darren McFadden). He is the fifth Denver RB to go on injured reserve in 2008.
--Denver perennial Pro-Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey has missed six straight games with a groin injury. Bailey will attempt to go full speed at practice Saturday to determine if he can play this week.
--John Fox’s club is unbeaten in seven home games, compiling a 4-2-1 spread record.
--The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the Panthers, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit in four consecutive games (regardless of venue). The ‘under’ is 4-3 for Carolina at home this year.
--The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in Denver’s last nine games.
**Vikings at Cardinals**
--Most books are listing Arizona (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 48. The Vikings are plus-145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145).
--Minnesota (8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS) has a half-game lead over Chicago in the NFC North. The Vikings have won three in a row and five of their last six games. They won 20-16 at Detroit last week but failed to cover the number as 10 ½-point ‘chalk.’
--Minnesota quarterback Gus Frerotte left the game against the Lions with a back injury and is “out” this week. That means Tarvaris Jackson is back in the starting lineup. Jackson, who was benched after a Week 2 home loss to Indianapolis, was outstanding in relief at Detroit. He completed 8-of-10 passes for 105 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. Adrian Peterson rushed for 105 yards on 23 carries.
--Peterson leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1,416. The Oklahoma product has nine rushing touchdowns and averages 4.8 yards per carry.
--Minnesota DE Jared Allen missed practice Wednesday and Thursday and is “questionable” this week. Allen, who is fourth in the NFL with 12½ sacks, has a sore knee after taking a low blow from a Detroit lineman last week.
--Arizona bounced back from consecutive losses to thump St. Louis 34-10 last week. Ken Whisenhunt’s squad easily took the money as a 14-point favorite. Kurt Warner threw for 279 yards and one touchdown.
--Warner is enjoying a banner season. He’s second in the NFL with 4,020 passing yards, 810 yards shy of his career-best total with three games remaining. Warner has completed 68.8 percent of his throws with a 25/12 touchdown-interception ratio.
--Arizona owns a 5-1 SU record and a 4-2 ATS mark at home. As for the Vikings, they are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road.
--The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for the Vikings, 5-2 in their road games. The ‘over’ is also 8-5 overall for the Cardinals, 5-1 in their home games.
**Patriots at Raiders**
--Most spots are listing New England (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with the total in the 39-40 range. The Raiders are plus-250 on the money line.
--Oakland (3-10 SU, 5-8 ATS) comes into this spot with extra rest after playing last Thursday. The bad news is how the Raiders played at San Diego, pulling a complete no-show in a 34-7 loss as 9 ½-point underdogs.
--New England QB Matt Cassel missed several practices this week after his father passed away Monday. He will get the starting nod, however. Cassel has connected on 64 percent of his attempts for 3,052 passing yards with a 14/10 TD-INT ratio. Cassel's situation is eerily similar to that of Brett Favre's back in December 2003, when Favre threw for 399 yards and four TDs in a 41-7 win at Oakland just one day after his father died.
--For the second time this season, Bill Belichick opted to keep his team on the West coast after winning 24-21 at Seattle. Earlier this year, the Patriots followed up a 30-21 win at San Francisco with a 30-10 loss at San Diego.
--New England's defense is decimated with injuries. Veteran safety Rodney Harrison and LB Adalius Thomas recently went down with season-ending injuries. Also, Tedy Bruschi isn't expected to play this week, while DT Vince Woolford is "questionable."
--Oakland has lost five of its six home games in 2008, posting a 2-4 ATS record.
--Since 2003, the Patriots have 21 of their 23 games played in December.
--The ‘over’ has hit in four straight games for the Patriots but is just 6-6-1 overall.
--Oakland has seen the ‘under’ go 8-4-1 overall, 4-2 in its home outings.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--According to an alert sent out by LVSC Friday afternoon, Indy RB Joseph Addai has been downgraded to “doubtful” for Sunday’s home game against Detroit.
--Also on Friday afternoon, ESPN reported that Giants RB Brandon Jacobs has been ruled “out” for Sunday’s showdown at Dallas.
--Tennessee DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) is “out” at Houston.
--Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia was “questionable” (as of Friday) for Sunday’s game at Atlanta.
--Five people of 111 are left in my Eliminator League (Suicide Pool) and I’m one of ‘em. I have the Eagles this week, while three others have the Colts. The fifth participant has the Patriots. C’mon Lions!
--Reality Check: Lions have ZERO shot to beat Indy outright (unless Peyton and six defensive players go down with injuries early in the first quarter).
--I'm off to a nice start in college basketball if you want to check out those picks.
vegasinsider.com
Giants-Cowboys SNF Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Eli Manning stepped off the field of Giants’ Stadium last week with his head held low. Not only did his New York football Giants (11-2 straight up, 10-3 against the spread) find themselves snapping a seven-game winning streak at home (losing 20-14 to the division rival Eagles), but Manning’s 48.1 passing percentage was the lowest of the season for the 27-year-old slinger (worst percentage since Week 12 of last season).
Attempting to shrug off the Week 14 defeat, the Giants must also deflect the negative vibe surrounding the club after star wide out Plaxico Burress’ shooting and the loss of their No. 1 running back, Brandon Jacobs (1,002 rushing yards with 12 touchdowns).
The Cowboys (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) have problems of their own. Causing trouble as only he knows how, WR Terrell Owens has stirred the pot in Dallas once again. This time around he’s cannibalized his relationship with gunslinger Tony Romo. Owens started the internal fire by telling The Dallas Mourning News, “I'm not jealous of Witten. I'm not jealous of nobody… I just talked to Jason [Whitten] about Tony [Romo] reading the whole play because other people are open besides Witten.”
Sunday’s 8:15 p.m. EST primetime contest brings with it a little of everything. Injuries, family feuding and playoff implications are all part of the package.
Most books opened the Cowboys as three-point home favorites with a total still sitting at 45 ½.
Thanks to a relentless No. 1 rushing attack (154.6 YPG) and a second best time of possession (although that dipped after holding the ball for a season low 25:06 in the loss last week), New York has gone 8-2 ATS in its last 10. The Giants have been installed as underdogs just twice this season in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Right out of the gate New York will be without bruising RB Brandon Jacobs. After tweaking his knee in last Sunday’s home loss, coach Tom Coughlin was candid with the media, labeling his star back as ‘out’ this week. That means Derrick Ward will move to the No. 1 spot on the depth chart. Remember that the Giants will be facing a Dallas defense giving up 93.9 YPG on the ground.
But the Cowboys have their own health issues to address. Corner back Adam Jones will miss the rest of the season after being diagnosed with a bulging disk in his neck, RB Marion Barber has been downgraded to ‘questionable’ with a tow injury and wide out Roy Williams missed several practices this week (despite his status listed as ‘probable’).
Dallas is coming off a damaging, 20-13 loss in Pittsburgh last week. The Steelers scored an unfathomable two touchdowns 24 seconds apart from each other in the final moments of the fourth quarter. The seal on the deal was Dallas’ Romo throwing a pick to Pittsburgh’s Deshea Townsend which resulted in a quick trip to the house for six.
Maybe the worst news of all was the Cowboys failure to cover the four-point spread in Pittsburgh (only if you backed America’s team in this one of course).
At least there’s relief in seasonal trends as Dallas has gone a successful 4-2 ATS at home. When books have installed the Cowboys between one and three-point favorites, backers have collected cash with a perfect 3-0 ATS record (1-0 at home and 2-0 on the road).
And it's worth mentioning Dallas’ 64 percent success rate at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That equates to 23 touchdowns in 36 possessions with the ball inside the 20-yard line.
The G-Men have been impeccable in covering the spread in almost every conceivable category. New York is 5-1 ATS on the road, 2-0 ATS on turf, 8-1 ATS in its conference and a smoking 4-1 ATS in its own division.
We can’t forget about those total players out their. With a total hovering around the 45 ½ to 46-point mark it’s interesting to note that the Giants are a money making 4-2 on the ‘over’ when traveling while the Cowboys are a hot 4-2 on the ‘over’ at home.
New York is a perfect 4-0 on the ‘over’ (3-0 on the road) when the total has been installed between 42.5 to 45.5 points. Dallas has complemented this trend with a 3-1 record on the ‘over’ within the same total range mentioned.
This is a revenge spot for the Cowboys who are still mulling over their 35-14 loss to the Giants in Week 9. Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger split time in the QB roll with Tony Romo still recovering from the broken pinky. New York’s defense held Dallas to rushing for 81 yards, while three interceptions and four sacks helped solidify the ‘W’. The Cowboys were 9 ½-point visiting ‘dogs in that contest with the ‘over’ cashing in at 42.
The Giants are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record and are an impeccable 22-6 ATS in their last 28 road games. Dallas enters Sunday night with a 1-7 ATS record in its last eight versus NFC East opponents. Since their last playoff win back in 1996, the Cowboys are 18-32 in December and January football combined.
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Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David
Week 14 Recap
Bookmakers were smiling last weekend as the betting public was creamed with their total plays, as the ‘under’ posted a 13-3 mark. This time of the year, most gamblers factor weather into their handicapping but none of the games last week were affected by the conditions at all. Only four of the 32 teams that lined up last week posted 30-plus points, while seven teams were held to 10 points or less. Good defense or poor offense? After 14 weeks of action, the ‘under’ 103-99 (51%) has taken a slight edge on the season.
Pack it up!
With only 12 playoff spots available and just three weeks of action left, it’s safe to say that the season has already ended for at least a third of the league. The following teams - Houston (6-7), Green Bay (5-8), San Diego (5-8), Cleveland (4-9), Jacksonville (4-9), Oakland (3-10), Kansas City (2-11), Seattle (2-11), St. Louis (2-11), Cincinnati (1-11-1), Detroit (0-13) - have been eliminated from the postseason or need to win out and get some serious help to get a sniff.
How do these teams fare down the stretch? Do they give up and play out the string, perhaps rebuild and try to earn a fat contract for next season? Is the coach they’re playing for on his way out? Do they need to impress ownership?
Handicappers often pass when a pair of these clubs meet, since it’s like picking poison between the two. How about betting the total?
“If you look at all of the bad teams in the league, the majority of them stink because they can’t defend anybody,” said VI handicapper Matt Moore.
“I always go by the notion that an average offense can score on a bad defense more often than not, but there are a lot of teams in the NFL this year that just can’t move the football, which is more important than scoring in my opinion.”
Cincinnati is ranked dead last in scoring with 11.8 points per game and it hasn’t scored a touchdown in over 11 quarters. Followed by the Bengals are the Rams (13 PPG) and Raiders (13.8 PPG).
Moore added, “I look for three factors when ‘capping a total – first downs, 3rd down percentage and penalties. If you’re good in two of the three, you can usually post points on the board. If you’re bad, then you’re a pathetic offense.”
“Point in case is Oakland, who is ranked dead last in first downs (13.2), 3rd down percentage (24.7%) and has been penalized a league-high 96 times.”
Since the Raiders’ defense isn’t that great, gamblers might want to take a look at their team total ‘under.’
In Week 15, there are three matchups with teams that are all but done this year:
San Diego at Kansas City (45.5)
Green Bay at Jacksonville (45.5)
Seattle at St. Louis (43)
Which is Worse?
Washington Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense: The Redskins are one of three teams (Bengals, Lions) that haven’t been able to eclipse the 30-point plateau this year. Head coach Jim Zorn and company are looking for an identity and they might have a shot to find it on Sunday against Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals are allowing 26.5 PPG this year, but more importantly the team has only recorded 13 sacks. Most would expect QB Jason Campbell to exploit the pass defense but after the drama in D.C. this past week, you could see a large dose of Clinton Portis in the Queen City. The total on this game is 36 ½ points and if you’re looking at an ‘over’, perhaps the Washington team total ‘over’ is a better wager since the Bengals have posted six points in the last two weeks.
Green Bay Defense vs. Jacksonville Offense: The Packers have given up 51, 35 and 24 points in their last three games. The Jaguars have scored 14, 12, 17 and 10 in their last four losses. Can Green Bay hold Jacksonville in check or are we looking at another shootout in the Sunshine State? The Jags will be without wide receiver Matt Jones (suspension) and Fred Taylor (thumb) for Sunday. Oddsmakers opened up this week’s total at 45, which is the highest number for a game at Alltel Stadium this year. The Packers’ offense is averaging 28 PPG on the road this year, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-2.
Bills’ Offense vs. Jets’ Defense: After posting 54 points against Kansas City on Nov. 23, the Bills have put up six points in the last two games. The offense posted 163 yards of offense in a 16-3 loss to Miami last week and QB J.P. Losman looked lost in the setback. The Bills lost to the Jets 26-17 on Nov. 2 and now have a chance to avenge that defeat on Sunday. Buffalo’s attack might have a fighting chance, considering the Jets’ defense has given up 58 points in their last two games. Two of the last three meetings in this series have gone ‘under’ the total. Will the Jets get back on track at home or can Buffalo finally bust out? Weather reports appear to be clear as of Friday. The total is hovering between 41 and 42 on this divisional battle.
Strong Trends
Tennessee at Houston: The ‘over’ is 7-1 in the last eight battles, including five straight winning tickets. Earlier this year, Tennessee blasted Houston 31-12 and gamblers who played the ‘over’ benefited with a 99-yard pick-six to the house late in the game.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Even though the Steelers and Ravens both possess nasty defensive units, the ‘over’ is on a 4-0 run. In the first meeting this season, Pittsburgh edged Baltimore 23-20 in overtime from Heinz Field.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta: The Falcons have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home this year, and the two games that did go ‘under’ just missed too. Tampa Bay has played two games (New Orleans, Detroit) indoors this year and both went ‘over’ the number. Keep in mind that QB Jeff Garcia is a game-time decision for the Buccaneers on Sunday.
San Diego at Kansas City: Six of the last eight and three of the previous four battles in this series have gone ‘under’ the number. After starting the season on a 4-0 ‘over’ run, the Chargers have seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 in their last nine games.
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Three of the last four games have gone ‘over’ the total, including the Giants 35-14 victory on Nov. 2 against Dallas. The total in that matchup was 41 ½ and now the number has jumped up to 44 ½.
Monday Night Football
Last week, the Panthers led the Buccaneers 10-3 at halftime and it appeared that Monday’s NFC South showdown was looking like an ‘under’ play. Sure enough, Carolina outscored Tampa Bay 28-20 in the final 30 minutes en route to a 38-23 victory. The combined 61 points easily eclipsed the closing number of 40 points, improving the MNF ‘over’ record to 13-2 on the season.
Philadelphia hosts Cleveland in Week 15 and the oddsmakers have listed the ‘over/under’ at 38 ½ points. The Eagles defense looked sharp last week against the Giants, and they now face a less than stellar Browns attack led by third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey. Cleveland has scored 6, 6 and 9 points in its last three games. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in six games played Lincoln Financial Field this season.
A lot of sportsbooks are probably happy that there are only two MNF matchups left, including this one. In Week 16, Green Bay and Chicago go head-to-head in what most would expect to be a NFC North slugfest.
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What bettors need to know: Giants at Cowboys
By T.O. WHENHAM
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 44.5)
Line Movement
The game opened with the Cowboys favored by the key number of three. It can be found at 2.5 in a couple of spots, but for the most part it is staying at three. Three points represents the typical home-field advantage in the NFL, so the oddsmakers don't see much to separate the two teams. The public has a slightly stronger opinion - nearly 2/3 of bets have been on the defending Super Bowl champs.
Total
The total opened at 46. It is now widely available at 45 and can be found as low as 44.5. Both teams have gone under in each of their last two games. The over is 4-1-1 when the two teams have met over the last three seasons, including an over at the beginning of November. The over is 4-2 for the Giants on the road and the same for the Cowboys at home.
Weather
The forecast calls for a reasonably mild December day in Dallas with the temperature hovering around the low 60s with no precipitation likely. Weather won't be a factor for either team.
Recent History
The Giants have won and covered their last two matchups against the Cowboys - the home game in November and the playoff game in January. That reversed a short Dallas winning streak - the Cowboys had won three straight, covering the last two and pushing the first one. The Giants are 6-4 in the last their 10 games and 6-2-2 ATS. At 10-3 ATS the G-Men are the second best ATS team in the league. Dallas is much worse at 6-7 ATS.
Why Can't They All Just Get Along?
To the shock of no one with even half a brain, Terrell Owens is reportedly creating problems in the locker room. He specifically appears to be having problems with Tony Romo. Romo and Jason Witten are close, and the two have apparently been meeting in private to devise plays. That wouldn't be a real problem if we were talking about mature adults here, but 13-year-old girls think that Owens is childish and petty. All will be forgotten, at least temporarily, if Owens gets his touches and the team wins. If that doesn't happen then the boiling point could be near.
Well Matched Defenses
The Cowboys have allowed four more points per game than the Giants, but other than that they are very similar statistically, with just a slight edge to the Giants. New York allows nine fewer yards per game, four fewer rushing yards and five fewer through the air. Both teams have elite pass rushes, though Dallas has a clear edge in sacks - 45 to 36. Both teams are capable of lapses that can last a few plays or a whole game, but when they are in form they are nearly equal.
Missing Running Backs
This should be a good game, but it would be even better if the teams had healthy running backs. The Cowboys have the deeper problems. Felix Jones is on the IR and Marion Barber missed last week with a toe problem. He has barely participated in practice this week and is questionable for the Giants game.
Brandon Jacobs has missed practice this week with a knee injury. His MRI was negative, but the team still ruled him out for this weekend. It wouldn't be a surprise to see both big backs on the sideline on Sunday. Tashard Choice was decent for Dallas in his first starting action of his career against Pittsburgh last week. Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw will carry the load for the Giants in Jacobs’ absence. Both are in the midst of career years.
Other Injuries
Besides the ongoing issues, the Giants just have a few problems. WR Domenik Hixon has an ankle injury and seems unlikely. DE Justin Tuck and DB Aaron Ross are both banged up and limited in practice, but both are expected to play. For Dallas, Witten, FS Ken Hamlin and WR Roy Williams have all had quiet practice weeks, but all are expected to play.
What's on the Line
The Cowboys are still hanging on in the wild card race, but their perch is far from comfortable. A loss would probably put them on the outside looking in and their remaining schedule - Baltimore and Philadelphia - could make it hard to regain momentum. The Giants don't have to worry about making the playoffs, or getting a bye, but they probably need two wins to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They also need to show that their lousy performance last week was just a fluke.
Trends of Note
The Giants are 6-0 ATS following a straight up loss, 5-0 ATS following an ATS loss and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records. They are also 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 as underdogs.
Dallas has covered its last four games as favorites and is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the NFC. The Boys are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight against the NFC East and 0-7 ATS in December.
Top five NFL teams to fade in the final three weeks
By MATT SEVERANCE
The tail end of the NFL season can be a tricky one when it comes to betting. You’ve got teams that might be locked into playoff seeds with nothing to gain and clubs on the other end of the spectrum who’ve already thrown in the towel on a forgettable campaign.
Cincinnati Bengals: The Kitty Cats have gone 0-3-1 since a 21-19 Week 9 win over Jacksonville and they’ve have been outscored 69-6 the last two weeks. Cincy has gone 11 consecutive quarters without a touchdown. The Bengals have winnable games in the final two weeks: at Cleveland and against Kansas City. But all that would do is blow their draft position. Thankfully for Bengals fans, Ki-Jana Carter is not draft eligible this year.
Cleveland Browns: The Browns are rumored to be looking at Marty Schottenheimer or Bill Cowher to replace Romeo Crennel, who is a dead coach walking. A lame-duck coach is never a good motivator for a team. Making matters worse for the Browns backers are down to third-string QB Ken Dorsey. The Brownies are big 14-point road dogs this week against Philly, followed by a very winnable game against the Bengals and a finale against a Pittsburgh team that may have nothing to play for.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Is there a more disappointing team in the league? In their last three games, all losses, the Jaguars have fallen behind 20-3, 10-0 and 14-0. Playing at home has been no help either. Jacksonville has dropped four in a row at home and is 1-5 there this season. This week the Jags lost WR Matt Jones, RB Fred Taylor and FB Greg Jones for the reminder of the year.
Buffalo Bills: Hard to believe this club once was 4-0 and the early-season darling of the AFC East. Starting quarterback Trent Edwards is hurt and the Bills haven’t scored a touchdown in two games. After averaging 27.3 points and 319.5 yards during their 4-0 start, they have averaged 17 points and 274.7 yards in losing seven of nine. Buffalo hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record this year. Coach Dick Jauron reportedly was close to a contract extension around Week 6, but that never materialized. Now he might be gone before the season ends.
Seattle Seahawks: This is probably not the way Mike Holmgren expected to end his career in Seattle. Injuries have ripped apart his club especially at receiver and on the offensive line. But the Seattle defense returned all 11 starters from last season’s sound unit, yet it’s the worst defense in the league in ‘08 outside of Detroit. QB Matt Hasselbeck is likely done for the year and possibly for good in Seattle. Star left tackle Walter Jones also has shut it down for the season. Games against the Jets and Cardinals close out the season and then Seattle fans can focus on the Mariners.
NFL weather watch: Info on every game on the board
Green Bay -2.5
Jacksonville 46.5
Weather: Scattered Showers, Temp 69° F, Wind ESE – medium speed
- The pointspread opened at: GB -1.5
- The total opened at: 45.5
- Where most of the bets are: Green Bay
- Where most of the money is: Green Bay
- Green Bay key injuries: RT Mark Tauscher-knee (out for season); FB Korey Hall-knee (doubtful); FS Nick Collins-shin (questionable)
- Jacksonville key injuries: Matt Jones-suspension (3 games); LB Chad Nkang-shoulder (IR); WR Jerry Porter-groin (questionable)
We give Green Bay moderate odds to win outright and we also make them moderate favorites to cover the points on the road this week.
The betting public loves Green Bay this week and the mounting action will push the point-spread upwards.
Detroit 45
Indianapolis -17.5
Weather: Indoors, Lucas Oil Stadium
- The pointspread opened at: -16.5
- The total opened at: 45.5
- Where most of the bets are: Split
- Where most of the money is: Split
- Detroit key injuries: QB Daunte Culpepper-shoulder (more doubtful than probable)
- Indianapolis key injuries: RB Joseph Addai-shoulder (questionable)
This is the biggest point-spread of the NFL season here. The odds suggest the Colts won’t lose this game, but can they cover this huge point-spread? The bettors are currently split.
Washington -7
Cincinnati 36.5
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Temp 52° F, Wind S at 22mph – Strong winds
- The pointspread opened at: -6.5
- The total opened at: 36
- Where most of the bets are: Washington
- Where most of the money is: Washington
- Washington key injuries: RB Clinton Portis-knee (probable); LT Chris Samuels-triceps (IR); RT Jon Jensen-knee (doubtful)
- Cincinnati key injuries: LT Levi Jones-hamstring (questionable); S Chinedum Ndukwe-foot (probable); DE Eric Henderson-neck (IR); TE Ben Utecht-foot (questionable)
The Skins are the huge odds on favorite to win this one on the road. Clinton Portis’s injury status has him listed as probable.
We think he’ll play and play well against this horrible Cincinnati team who has lost by an average margin of -26.7 points in their last 3 games. We also make Washington the cover favorites.
Tampa Bay 44.5
Atlanta -3
Weather: Indoor, Georgia Dome
- The pointspread opened at: -3
- The total opened at: 44.5
- Where most of the bets are: Atlanta
- Where most of the money is: Tampa Bay
- Tamps Bay key injuries: QB Jeff Garcia-calf (probable); DE Gains Adams-hip (questionable); DT Jovan Haye-knee (questionable)
- Atlanta key injuries: No significant injuries to report
This game has huge playoff implications for both teams. We have this game as a toss-up, giving Tampa Bay slight cover odds.
Jeff Garcia will play, but its unknown how much his calf injury will affect him.
San Francisco 41.5
Miami -6.5
Weather: Scattered Showers, Temp 76° F, Wind E – medium speed
- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 43
- The pointspread opened at: -6.5
- Where most of the bets are: Miami
- Where most of the money is: Miami
- San Francisco key injuries: RB Frank Gore-ankle (game-time decision)
- Miami key injuries: No significant injuries to report
We make Miami the decent sized home favorites to win outright. But - San Francisco has been playing well enough lately to make them a decent favorite to cover the spread.
The key for the game and total will be Frank Gore being a game-time decision.
Seattle -2.5
St. Louis 42.5
Weather: Indoors, Edward Jones Dome
- The pointspread opened at: -3
- The total opened at: 43
- Where most of the bets are: Seattle
- Where most of the money is: St. Louis
- Seattle key injuries: QB Matt Hasselback-back (doubtful); T Walter Jones-knee (doubtful); LB Leroy Hill-shoulder (questionable); DT Red Bryant-ankle (questionable)
- St. Louis key injuries: CB Tye Hill-knee (IR)
Seattle should go into St. Louis and win and cover this game. But in situations like this, teams like St. Louis tend to surprise with a decent home field performance.
Buffalo 41.5
NY Jets -7.5
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Temp 43° F, Wind SSE – light speed
- The pointspread was hit by wise action at: Buffalo +8
- The total opened at: 41.5
- Where most of the bets are: Jets
- Where most of the money is: Jets
- Buffalo key injuries: QB Trent Edwards-groin (it appears backup J. P. Losman will make his second straight start for the Bills).
- NY Jets key injuries: WR Brad Smith-concussion (doubtful); Bubba Franks-hip (questionable)
The Jets are huge home favorites this week against an unpredictable Buffalo team.
Buffalo has QB issues now and it’s anyone’s guess how the change in the QB position will affect the Bills play.
We give the Jets only coin-toss odds to cover the TD+ point-spread.
Tennessee -3.5
Houston 45
Weather: Indoors, Reliant Stadium
- The pointspread opened at: -3.5
- The total opened at: 45
- Where most of the bets are: Tennessee
- Where most of the money is: Tennessee
- Tennessee key injuries: DL Kyle Vanden Bosch-groin (probable)
- Houston key injuries: No significant injuries to report
Tennessee is the team to beat right now; and they have been red hot on the road covering all six away games this season.
No reason to think that trend will be stopped this week by Houston. We have Tennessee as strong favorites to cover the points.
Pittsburgh 34
Baltimore -2.5
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Temp 45° F, Wind S – medium speed
- The pointspread opened at: Bal -2
- The total opened at: 33
- Where most of the bets are: Baltimore
- Where most of the money is: Baltimore
- Pittsburgh key injuries: WR Nate Washington-leg (questionable)
- Baltimore key injuries: RB Willis McGahee-head (probable); Ray Rice-leg (questionable)
This is a very popular match this week. These two teams are evenly matched in almost every category, but we give Baltimore only a slight home field advantage.
Denver 48
Carolina -7.5
Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Temp 50° F, Wind ESE – light speed
- The pointspread opened at: -7.5
- The total opened at: 47
- Where most of the bets are: Carolina
- Where most of the money is: Carolina
- Denver key injuries: WR Brandon Stokley-ankle (questionable); CB Champ Bailey-groin (questionable); RB Peyton Hillis-hamstring (IR); RB Selvin Young-groin (questionable)
- Carolina key injuries: No significant injuries to report
We make Carolina an overwhelming favorite in this one and the betting public agrees with it. This line will increase before kick off.
San Diego -6
Kansas City 45
Weather: Few Showers, Temp 55° F, Wind SW 24mph – Strong winds
- The total was hit by wise action at: Under 46.5
- The pointspread opened at: -7.5
- Where most of the bets are: San Diego
- Where most of the money is: San Diego
- San Diego key injuries: No significant injuries to report
- Kansas City key injuries: No significant injuries to report
We have Denver as monster favorites to win this game outright at home, but only give them very low odds to cover the spread. The total was hit by early wise action Over 48 due to the uncertain status of CB Champ Baily.
We give San Diego very good odds to come up with a road win this week. We also make them moderate cover favorites.
Minnesota 47
Arizona -3
Weather: Few Showers, Temp 58° F, Wind WSW – light speed
- The pointspread opened at: -3
- The total opened at: 47.5
- Where most of the bets are: Arizona
- Where most of the money is: Arizona
- Minnesota key injuries: QB Gus Frerotte (doubtful); QB Tarvaris Jackson-expected to start KR Darius Reynaud-toe (questionable)
- Arizona key injuries: LB Clark Haggans-foot (doubtful)
We give Arizona only moderate odds to win and cover at home this week against the Vikings.
New England -7.5
Oakland 40
Weather: Showers, Temp 47° F, Wind SW – light speed
- The pointspread opened at: -7.5
- The total opened at: 40
- Where most of the bets are: New England
- Where most of the money is: Oakland
- New England injuries: QB Matt Cassel-personal (questionable); LB Tedy Bruschi-knee (downgrade to miss the rest of the season); NT Vince Wilfork-shoulder (questionable); S James Sanders-ribs (questionable)
- Oakland injuries: QB JaMarcus Russell-ankle (questionable); LB Ricky Brown-groin (expected to miss)
We give New England very big odds to win outright on the road this week against Oakland and we also make them the cover favorites.
NY Giants 46
Dallas -3
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Texas Stadium
- The total was hit by wise action at: Over 44
- The pointspread opened at: -3
- Where most of the bets are: Dallas
- Where most of the money is: Split
- NY Giants key injuries: RB Brandon Jacobs-knee (questionable); CB Aaron Ross-ankle (questionable); WR Plaxico Burress-suspension (out for season)
- Dallas key injuries: RB Marion Barber-toe (questionable); CB Adam Joes-neck (expected to miss); S Ken Hamlin-foot (doubtful), TE Jason Witten-ankle (probable)
This will end up being our most popular game this week. Even though the Giants stack up better than Dallas in almost every key category, we give Dallas ‘backs against the wall’ favorite odds to win outright. Sharp action suggests there will be scoring by both teams.
NFL Research Report
By Indiancowboy
Green Bay vs. Jacksonville
Note, that the Wide receiver in Jones will be out this game due to a suspension and that Fred Taylor is expected to miss action. The line opened up at -2 offshore and in most places sits at -2.5. The total has gone down from 46 to 45. GB seems to be the public fav here as over 70% are backing them on the road and why not after the loss to the Texans at home. The Jags have lost their last four covers while GB has lost their last 3 covers. I lean on GB as well as they seem to be playing with a lot more heart and motivation than Jacksonville right now who seems to have packed it in, but I can’t take any team that is backed by the public over a tune of 70%.
Lions vs. Colts
Wow, this is such a big spread. Note, that Orlovsky is likely to start this game as Culpepper is doubtful. But, if you are a Lions fan you want Orlovsky to start as he is far more accurate and frankly more athletic than Culpepper. Stanton is listed as probable as well – if you don’t know who he is – he is a no name QB that the Lions picked up because all of their quarterbacks are hurt. Addai is questionable for Indianapolis. The line opened up at -17 and 45 and has remained steady. The Colts have won 6 straight games as they go for win #10 today at home. Don’t forget though the Lions have covered their last four games on the road including a home cover last week over the Vikings which was my POD. I lean on the points and the Lions here if Orlovsky is the starter but I don’t think that will be announced until closer to game time. Plus, I can see how there could be a backdoor cover as well. But, it is not as if the Lions are not getting any love here as they do have 45% of the public backing. No thanks either way here.
Falcons vs. Bucs
Currently, this line sits at -3 for the home Falcons who up to thus far has lost just one game at home. The Falcons lost to the Bucs earlier this year so this is a revenge game for Atlanta. The line opened up at -3 in books and has not budged a bit and the total has done down slightly from 45 to 44.5. You might be surprised to learn that Atlanta is actually receiving 60% of the public support. Garcia has thrown for over 2200 yards while Ryan has thrown for nearly 3000 yards. Remember, Tampa Bay beat this team 24-9 and easily covered the 7 point chalk against Atlanta in their last game earlier this year. Both teams come off division losses in which Tampa Bay lost 23-38 at Carolina and Atlanta lost 25-29 at New Orleans. Remember, Atlanta is 5-1 at home (TB is 6-0 at home btw) and did beat division leading Carolina 45-28 at home. Atlanta has not lost back to back covers over the last ten games. I lean on the Falcons here as if I’m not mistaken, NFC South teams at home have won over 90% of the games straight up this year.
Seahawks vs. Rams
Hasselbeck is downgraded to doubtful and Seneca Wallace is expected to start. Don’t count out Wallace as a scrub though as remember he led the Seahawks to nearly a win at Miami and an easy cover on the road in that game. Hence, the Rams see themselves as a home dog as Seattle comes off a big effort against NE unsuccessfully. By the way, I think Jim Mora Jr. is a poison and a terrible coach that will inflict complete and total mediocrity to this team as he can’t coach worth a lick and has made it quite apparent that his first coaching job was not the Seattle job but rather the Washington job in college. The total opened up at 43and has come downs slightly to 43. The Rams of course have Bulger back and I know that 61% favor the Seahawks here but I like Seattle as well. Seattle has lost six straight games and frankly I think this is a tough call either way but Seneca Wallace usually has a way of covering games when he starts as the Hawks never given up from start to finish. But, I’ll likely just stay away as I think this game is a crap shoot.
Bills vs. Jets
There is possible inclement weather for this game and Edwards is listed as doubtful so it seems that J.P. will get the start. The total has not moved from 41 but the line has moved from -7 for the Jets to -7.5 and even -8 at some books. The Jets are 8-5 and this is a bigger game than most realize as there is a big difference from being 9-5 and 8-6. The Jets beat Buffalo 26-17 earlier this year on the road and easily covered the 5 point dog tag. Buffalo comes off losing 3-16 to Miami as well as 3-10 to San Fran at home. The Jets have lost back to back games and up last week hadn’t lost back to back games in quite some time. As per this game, I would love to take the Jets here off back to back losses and who knows, they might cover and 65% of the public could be right. Having said that though, Losman makes his return here and this could be a game where he steps up for his squad. The line keeps going up and Buffalo does have revenge against this team as well. Why is it so hard to believe that Buffalo could come with some revenge, they come off back to back home losses but have also lost 6 of their last 7. For me, this game is no play. In part because Losman could take advantage of the situation and the Bills could be competitive with revenge, but I certainly would not want to go against the Jets who come off back to back losses and will look to avoid losing 3 in a row for the first this year and the Jets are due for a breakout due to the frustration over the last two games.
Steelers vs. Ravens
Ravens sit as a -2 point favorite which I’m sure Pitt is aware of and the total sits at 34.5. This is a big game for both teams as they very well could meet in the playoffs. But, having said that, I would never want to test the chip on the Steelers shoulder for being placed as a dog here. Remember, the Steelers went into New England and won 33-10 as a 1 point dog. This team has won their last 4 games and 5 of 6. Heck, they covered at Jacksonville, Cincy, Washington and New England. Baltimore however has covered their last 7 of 8 including defeating the Redskins, Eagles and Raiders over their last 3 home games and easily covering the spread. Having said that, the Ravens come off a very big win on Sunday Night Football and this will be a tough spread for them to cover coming off a national television game such as that. I know the Ravens have revenge, but I actually lean a bit on the Steelers to win this game outright. I think a 1.5 unit play on the ML is worth the risk here.
Vikings vs. Cardinals
Note, that Ferotte is listed as doubtful for this game and it seems that Jackson will get the start in this all important game. Remember the Vikings come off a squeaker at Detroit and now hit the road to face the Cardinals. DT Allen is listed as probable for the Vikings and they have two more defensive lineman who are listed as possible depending on suspension situations and the league. I want to take the Cardinals very badly in this game, but this is also the biggest public play of the day as over 76% of the public backs the Cardinals here as Jackson stinks. Yet, such was the case when the Vikings were at New Orleans and all sorts of shadiness happened so that the Saints not only lost the cover but the game as well. The Vikings were the same team to win big at Jacksonville even though they didn’t look impressive against Detroit. This is a much more must win game for the Vikings as compared to the Cardinals who really have no competition in their division. I lean on the Cardinals as Warner’s potential for offense is far greater than Tarvaris Jackson who wouldn’t be good enough to start for the top 50 collegiate schools in the nation, nevertheless for the Vikings. But, having said that, how do you wager on a team that has over 76% of the public’s backing?
Patriots vs. Raiders
Note that Cassell is questionable after the death of his father. O’Connell would be the starter if Cassell does not play. If it is O’Connell that starts as compared to Cassell the line would move from down from NE -7 to NE -3.5. Speaking of public backing, the current consensus has the Patriots backed by over 80% in this game. I can easily see the Raiders getting up for this game as it is the Patriots but the Pats have had no trouble covering against the Dolphins on the road or at the Colts. This team was fortunate to defeat the Seahawks on the road however. Oakland comes off back to back losses including outright losses to the Chiefs and a burial at San Diego. It is important to this game obviously if Cassell starts as compared to O’Connell. Nevertheless, once again, tough to back any team that has the public backing of 80%.
Giants vs. Cowboys
Note that Jerry Jones basically called Marion Barber a sissy so I expect a strong game from Barber. And, why wouldn’t Jones do that? You wouldn’t expect anything less from a guy that is desperate to go back to the playoffs as he has shelled a lot of money out this year only to see Romo go out for a few games and now this team scratching and clawing against the Bucs and Falcons for the last two playoff spots. Running Back Jacobs is listed as questionable for the Giants while although Barber is listed as questionable, I am fairly confident he will play after being called out by the owner the previous week. Adam Jones is OUT for this game but considering he has stunk this year anyway and might be more of a distraction, this could be a good thing for this team. Well, this game can’t get any bigger for the Cowboys. This team is 8-5 and fighting for the playoffs. Thee Cowboys have revenge against the Giants from getting blown out earlier this year at NY when Johnson was the QB. The Cowboys have not lost back to back covers since Romo came back. If I’m not mistaken, the Giants have not lost back to back covers all year and they would love to be the reason why Dallas essentially is knocked out of the playoffs. After all, if the Falcons win against the Bucs and the Cowboys lose to the Giants, mark my words, Atlanta will go dancing. After all, the Cowboys would be a full game behind and then have to face the Ravens at home and Eagles on the road. The Falcons close with the Vikings on the road and the Rams at home and can go 1-1 and secure the playoff spot because the Falcons will likely have the better conference record. Remember, the Giants have a lot to prove as well as they have been taking a lot of heat for losing to the Eagles at home as many are openly questioning this receiving core of this team which I’m sure Coughlin has addressed in practice. I know it sounds a bit anti-climatic here but I lean on the Giants here on a bounce-back as that has been one of the best plays in all the NFL over the last two years. Heck, the Giants are 10-3 ATS this year and I just don’t think the Cowboys are all that – their offense is rock solid, their defense is highly questionable in my book but with Burress out I think this team does lose a big play threat downfield and note that Jacobs is banged up for this game for the Giants and is listed as questionable. Plus, Barber was called out last week so he will have a big game, no thanks, staying far away from this game.
Browns vs. Eagles
There is possible inclement weather for this game and Winslow is listed as doubtful. Well, the Eagles come off the biggest win of the season at the Giants and now face a 14 point spread. Lol. Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS over their last six games but did win at Buffalo outright earlier this year. Philly comes off back to back covers winning big against Arizona as well as the Giants on the road. I think the Eagles offense will put up around 30 to 35 points here but the question is what will the Eagles defense do as it relates to this cover. Once again, when you come off a big public win such as what the Eagles did, it is very tough to step up the next game against an inflated line and cover. This is Monday Night Football and remember what the Browns did last time on MNF – they defeated the Giants themselves outright at home as 9 point dogs. They were led by Anderson in that game much the same way when they defeated the Bengals on the road with Anderson. Stollworth faces his old team here and although Winslow is listed as doubtful for this game, this team still has Braylon Edwards and an up and coming tight end as well. Dorsey attempted nearly 45 pass attempts at Tennessee and this team I think did very admirably against the Titans. I lean on the Browns here but I just can’t go against the Eagles who are playing with a chip on their shoulder, in particular, McNabb is ever since he was called out and questioned openly by the media and made fun of because of the tie against the Bengals on the road. The public is on the over to a tune of 70% as well.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts Preview
sportspic.com
The Detroit Lions will do everything in their power to avoid the infamy of finishing 0-16. But, notching win number-one won't come Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The Colts winners of six straight and with an eye towards their seventh consecutive playoff appearance under Tony Dungy simply won't let this one get away.
Colts covering what is expected to be the largest spread of the season which at this writing is bouncing between 17.0 - 18.0 could be a chore. Before laying the lumber and/or fading Colts keep these ATS numbers in mind. Flat-Out-Bad as Detroit has played, give Lions credit for bringing home the bacon in five of six Double Digit situations including a perfect 4-0 on the highway. Colts have not been good bets down the stretch the past five years (Wk 15-17) depleting betting accounts to the tune of 4-12.
We'll close with one final item of interest, although Double Digit Dogs enjoy a profitable 17-8 mark against-the-oddsmaker this season Double Digit favorites have done a number the past three weeks covering five of six.
NFL Streaks & Notes!!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Surprising Falcons (8-5, 8-5 ATS) aiming for their first postseason appearance in four years host Bucs (9-4, 7-6 ATS) Sunday. Falcons ridding a 6-1 SU & ATS mark at the Georgia Dome averaging 33.8 points will be a handful for Buc's highly touted 'D' which didn't live up to standards in Monday's 38-23 loss to the Panthers. With NFC South home teams an incredible 10-0 (9-1 ATS) this season hosting division rivals winning by an average 12.8 PPG sidding with Falcons has merit. Besides, Falcons owe Bucs for an earlier loss in Tampa.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Dolphins (8-5, 6-7 ATS) with a shot at winning the AFC East come prepared and should walk off with the 'W' vs 49ers (5-8, 6-7 ATS). Covering the 6.5 to 7 won't come easy. Dolphins are not good bets as favorites (1-6 ATS L7) and haven't cash a single game vs NFC West foes this season (0-3 ATS).
Sharps Report
GREEN BAY AT JACKSONVILLE:
Not much interest here. It's hard to bet on either team with confidence right now. Green Bay has dropped three straight against the spread in unimpressive fashion. Jacksonville hasn't put up much fight in a while. Some of the teaser guys are looking at moving Jacksonville from +2.5 up to +8.5 because it crosses the 3 and the 7. That approach hasn't quite been the home run this year it's been in the past. Part of that is that the offshore books in particular have guarded against leaving games in the strike zone. Can only see the sharps getting involved in this game if there's late injury information, or if the public takes a side and they want to go the other way.
DETROIT AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Big ugly underdogs have stopped covering, so there's less enthusiasm about them now than there was a few weeks ago. Sharps won't lay 17 points in an NFL game...so it's the dog or nothing here. Some are waiting to see if the public drives the line higher over the weekend. Better to take +17.5 than +17 obviously. If not, I expect many sharps to come in late at +17. They just can't resist this type of investment.
WASHINGTON AT CINCINNATI:
We're going in rotation order, so we have to start with the games that aren't getting much action! I'm sensing more passion for Cincinnati than for Detroit or anyone in the Green Bay/Jacksonville game. Sharps are hoping for a hook though, rather than just taking the Bengals +7. The public could hit the favorite because it's a "need to win" game for Washington. Sharps are hoping for that, but will come in at +7 on Sunday morning...particularly if the weather is going to help them. Sometimes a lack of movement means a lack of interest. Other times, there's a lot of interest that won't be unleashed until game day. I think we're looking at that here.
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA:
This line has been sitting on Atlanta -3 all week, and will probably stay there. These teams are evenly matched...so that a move of just a half a point either way would draw in big money from sharps immediately. Atlanta would get pounded at -2.5...while Tampa Bay would get pounded at +3.5. I'd be surprised to see the line move unless there's a late week injury or the public starts some sort of bandwagon effect on either team. Three is a very common number. Any chance to put three on your side would trump any opinion a sharp had in a game like this.
SAN FRANCISCO AT MIAMI:
There was a big move here on the total, as the opener of 44 dropped down to 41.5. I'm not sure where the 44 came from. San Francisco has been playing defense under new coach Mike Singletary. Miami's been getting hit on the Unders all year. That didn't work in the New England game...but has worked well often otherwise. Last week's game indoors against Buffalo stayed Under by a mile. Looks like a bad opener. Sharps hit the Under at 44, 43, and 42. Miami got some interest on the team side, moving up from -6 to -6.5. The sharps like what they see from San Francisco, but they recognize this as a killer schedule spot. The Niners have to travel back out East for the second time in three weeks...and are in letdown situation after upsetting Brett Favre and the Jets. Sharps figured the public would take the favorite, and wanted that -6 when they could get it. They can buy back some on the Niners if the line keeps moving up to shoot at a middle.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS:
This one looks a lot like Green Bay/Jacksonville to the sharps. It's hard to take either side, but the home team is sitting in the teaser window. Do you want to tie up a lot of teasers with bad teams who may not be trying? That's WHY these games are still in the window late in the week! The total has come down a bit. This just isn't a game the sharps are interested in this week.
BUFFALO AT NY JETS:
We saw strong interest on the favorite and the Under here. The Jets moved from -7 to -7.5 and stayed there. That's BIG because seven is such a common result. Any interest on the Bills would have brought the line right back down to seven. Didn't happen. The sharps like the Jets here and were happy to lay just the TD. The total dropped from 43 to 41. I can see that given Buffalo's horrible slump of late, and the Jets slowdown on offense. If weather is going to be an issue, that will only help the Under. Sharps hit it at 43 and 42. If weather develops over the weekend, that number will fall into the 30's. The sharps left a lot of games alone this week. They really stepped in on this one though.
TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON:
We have another game sitting on three, which trumps everything in the NFL. Sharps would lay -2.5 with Tennessee and take +3.5 with Houston because a field goal decision is so common in terms of the game possibilities. The total has fallen from 45.5 to 44.5 on the theory that Tennessee's defense will be the deciding factor in the game. I know some guys who like Houston here. They're already in at +3 even money. I'd be surprised if the line moved off the field goal. The public would have to come in really strong for that to occur...and the public will be focused on other marquee matchups this week.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE:
Big early move on the Ravens, who opened at pick-em but moved to -2.5 fairly quickly. Sharps haven't been impressed with Pittsburgh in big games this year. They did pull out a miracle win at home against Dallas last week. This game will be on the road, against a revenge-minded blood rival. Sharps laid pick-em, -1, and -2. Should the line move up to -3, we'll see a bunch of buy back as sharps set up their middles. This could happen if the public bets the favorite too. That's less likely here because the public will trust a "name" team like Pittsburgh over the rookie quarterback in a big game. For now, Baltimore is the sharp side. It should be noted though that the money stopped coming in at less than a field goal. Guys interested in betting Pittsburgh are waiting to see what they can get. Only part of the money is in play right now.
DENVER AT CAROLINA:
Definite interest in Carolina here, as -7 went to -7.5 just like we saw in the Buffalo/Jets game. It's funny that Denver just played at the Jets, and won outright at this size spread! Can they do that again at Carolina? The sharps didn't seem to think that. Though, they may have just been betting on the assumption that the public would hit Carolina off the Monday Night win. That's a "setting up position" bet rather than affection for Carolina. We'll see what the number does over the weekend. The total moved from 47 up to 48 with signs that Carolina found its offense again.
SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY:
Very strong interest on the favorite and the Under here. San Diego opened at -4.5 and jumped up to -6. Kansas City's defense has been coming and going of late. They lost their last two home games to Buffalo and New Orleans by margins that covered the early spread here. And, the Chiefs needed a non-offensive score to get the money in Denver last week. The total fell from 48 to 45.5. I'm not a totals guy, but I'm a little surprised about that. Those other Chiefs home losses weren't Unders. Clear support for San Diego and Under here.
MINNESOTA AT ARIZONA:
There are a few games sitting on a field goal this week. The early money has come in on host Arizona, moving the vigorish from -110 up to -120 or -125. No move yet off the three. If that happens, I'd expect a lot of money to come in on the underdog. Sportsbooks may just have to suck it up and root for the Vikings this week. Moving off the field would create a lot of exposure. The total has fallen from 47.5 to 46.5 showing Under support.
NEW ENGLAND AT OAKLAND:
New England didn't look all that great in Seattle last week, and now they have to play out West again in Oakland. Sharps hit the Raiders at +8, bringing the line down to +7. The total has fallen from 41 to 39.5. Oakland tends to play Unders when they cover (it's a defensive team with a very poor offense), so it makes sense those would move in lockstep. Dog and Under for the sharps here. A lot of totals opinions from the specialists this week.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS:
A few weeks back, Philadelphia was -3 at home against the Giants, and EVERYONE bet the Giants. Whenever the sharps and squares are lined up on the same side, sportsbooks know they're in trouble. That could happen again here, with Dallas opening at a field goal on the assumption that the public would bet the Cowboys in the "must win" situation. Sharps were on the Giants early, which has created -120 juice in some places. If the public comes in on the Giants too (which they've been doing all year), we could be set up for an instant replay of the Philly debacle (from the Nevada perspective). The total has come down from 46 to 45 because of the recent offensive woes for Dallas.
CLEVELAND AT PHILADELPHIA:
The only interest so far here has been on the total. The opener of 38 is up to 39 right now. Little has happened on the team side line of -14 for the Eagles. Sharps like big dogs, and will wait to see if the number goes up. That could happen...because the public will see a "must win" home team that won big as a home favorite on Thanksgiving Night...then upset their beloved Giants last week. I expect this game to be split with the sharps on the dog and the squares on the favorite. It remains to be seen if that battle will be at -14, -14.5, or -15.