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SUNDAY NFL GAMEDAY NEWS AND NOTES

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(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 2-point favorites versus the Saints, while the game's total is sitting at 52.

The Panthers lost to the Giants 34-28 in overtime as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38).

DeAngelo Williams rushed for 108 yards and four touchdowns for the Giants and Jake Delhomme passed for 185 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Saints defeated Detroit 42-7 as a 7-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (50.5).

Drew Brees passed for 351 yards with a pair of touchdowns for New Orleans, while Marques Colston caught nine passes for 99 yards with two touchdowns in the win.

Team records:
Carolina: 11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS
New Orleans: 8-7 SU, 10-4-1 ATS

Carolina most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing within the division are 5-5

New Orleans most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New Orleans is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Oakland Raiders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as 13-point favorites versus the Raiders, while the game's total is sitting at 39.

The Raiders upset Houston 27-16 as a 7-point underdog last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (43).

JaMarcus Russell passed for 236 yards with a pair of touchdowns for Oakland, while Johnnie Lee Higgins caught three passes for 56 yards with a touchdown and returned a punt 80 yards for a touchdown in the win.

The Buccaneers lost to San Diego 41-24 as a 4.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Jeff Garcia threw for 232 yards with a touchdown, two interceptions and a TD run for Tampa Bay, while Antonio Bryant had six receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown.

Current streak:
Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Oakland: 4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS
Tampa Bay: 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS

Oakland most recently:
When playing in December are 2-8
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 2-8

Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Oakland is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Oakland
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 11-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 34.

The Browns lost to Cincinnati 14-0 as a 2-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (31.5).

Ken Dorsey passed for 68 yards with three interceptions for Cleveland and Jamal Lewis had 76 rushing yards on 16 carries.

The Steelers lost to Tennessee 31-14 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (34).

Ben Roethlisberger threw for 331 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions for Pittsburgh and Hines Ward caught seven passes for 109 yards and a touchdown in the loss.

Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 5 straight games.

Team records:
Cleveland: 4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS
Pittsburgh: 11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS

Cleveland most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 4-6

Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 21 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

Oddsmakers currently have the Vikings listed as 7-point favorites versus the Giants, while the game's total is sitting at 41½.

The Giants defeated Carolina 34-28 in overtime as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38).

Brandon Jacobs scored three touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime for the Giants, while Derrick Ward rushed for 215 yards on 15 carries in the win.

The Vikings lost to Atlanta 20-13 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Tarvaris Jackson passed for 233 yards with two touchdowns for Minnesota and Visanthe Shiancoe caught seven passes for 136 yards with two touchdowns.

Team records:
New York: 12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS
Minnesota: 9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS

New York most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 9-1

Minnesota most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
NY Giants are 16-2 SU in their last 18 games on the road
NY Giants are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games on the road
NY Giants are 16-3 SU in their last 19 games
NY Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans

Oddsmakers currently have the Texans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total is sitting at 46½.

Robbie Gould's overtime field goal gave the Bears a 20-17 win over the Packers in Week 16.

The Bears failed to cover the 4.5-point spread at home in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (40).

The Texans lost to Oakland 27-16 as a 7-point favorite last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (43).

Matt Schaub passed for 255 yards with an interception for Houston and Steve Slaton rushed for 66 yards on 18 carries.

Current streak:
Chicago has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Chicago: 9-6 SU, 6-7-2 ATS
Houston: 7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS

Chicago most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 6-4

Houston most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 8 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 6-point favorites versus the Bills, while the game's total is sitting at 40.

The Patriots defeated Arizona 47-7 as an 8-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).

Matt Cassel passed for 345 yards with three touchdowns for New England and Randy Moss caught two passes for 87 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Bills defeated Denver 30-23 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Trent Edwards passed for 193 yards with a touchdown for the Bills, while Fred Jackson rushed for 43 yards and a touchdowns on 10 carries in the win.

Current streak:
New England has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
New England: 10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS
Buffalo: 7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS

New England most recently:
When playing in December are 10-0
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 8-2

Buffalo most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 4-6

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Buffalo's last 19 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 11-point favorites versus the Lions, while the game's total is sitting at 43.

The Lions lost to New Orleans 42-7 as a 7-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (50.5).

Dan Orlovsky threw for 125 yards with two interceptions for Detroit, while Kevin Smith rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.

Aaron Rodgers threw for two touchdowns in Green Bay's 20-17 loss to Chicago in Week 16.

The Bears failed to cover the 4.5-point spread at home in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (40).

Current streak:
Detroit has lost 15 straight games.
Green Bay has lost 5 straight games.

Team records:
Detroit: 0-15 SU, 6-9 ATS
Green Bay: 5-10 SU, 7-7-1 ATS

Detroit most recently:
When playing in December are 2-8
When playing on grass are 1-9
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing within the division are 2-8

Green Bay most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Detroit

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Oddsmakers currently have the Bengals listed as 3-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 39.

The Chiefs lost to Miami 38-31 as a 3.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Tyler Thigpen threw for 320 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for Kansas City and Larry Johnson rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

The Bengals defeated Cleveland 14-0 as a 2-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (31.5).

Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for only 55 yards with a touchdown for Cincinnati, while Cedric Benson rushed for 171 yards on 38 carries in the win.

Current streak:
Kansas City has lost 3 straight games.
Cincinnati has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Kansas City: 2-13 SU, 8-7 ATS
Cincinnati: 3-11-1 SU, 6-9 ATS

Kansas City most recently:
When playing in December are 2-8
When playing on turf are 1-9
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 0-10

Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 2-7-1
After outgaining opponent are 3-6-1
When playing on outside the division are 3-6-1

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Oddsmakers currently have the Bengals listed as 3-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 39.

The Chiefs lost to Miami 38-31 as a 3.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Tyler Thigpen threw for 320 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for Kansas City and Larry Johnson rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

The Bengals defeated Cleveland 14-0 as a 2-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (31.5).

Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for only 55 yards with a touchdown for Cincinnati, while Cedric Benson rushed for 171 yards on 38 carries in the win.

Current streak:
Kansas City has lost 3 straight games.
Cincinnati has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Kansas City: 2-13 SU, 8-7 ATS
Cincinnati: 3-11-1 SU, 6-9 ATS

Kansas City most recently:
When playing in December are 2-8
When playing on turf are 1-9
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 0-10

Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 2-7-1
After outgaining opponent are 3-6-1
When playing on outside the division are 3-6-1

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City

 
Posted : December 27, 2008 9:44 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

St. Louis Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons

Oddsmakers currently have the Falcons listed as 14-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total is sitting at 44.

The Rams lost to San Francisco 17-16 as a 3.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42).

Marc Bulger threw for 227 yards with a touchdown and an interception for St. Louis, while Steve Jackson rushed for 108 yards.

The Falcons defeated Minnesota 24-17 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43.5).

Matt Ryan passed for 134 yards with a touchdown for Atlanta, while Michael Turner rushed for 70 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.

Current streak:
St. Louis has lost 9 straight games.
Atlanta has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
St. Louis: 2-13 SU, 5-10 ATS
Atlanta: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS

St. Louis most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on turf are 1-9
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 2-8

Atlanta most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on turf are 8-2
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 12 of St. Louis's last 16 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Oddsmakers currently have the Titans listed as 3-point favorites versus the Colts, while the game's total is sitting at 39.

The Titans defeated Pittsburgh 31-14 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (34).

Kerry Collins passed for 216 yards with a touchdown for Tennessee, while Justin Gage hauled in five passes for 104 yards with a touchdown in the win.

Indianapolis scored 17 points in the fourth quarter and rallied for a 31-24 victory over Jacksonville in Week 16. Indianapolis covered the 6-point spread, and the 55 points sailed OVER the posted total of 44.

Peyton Manning threw three touchdowns and completed 29-of-34 pass attempts for 364 yards in the win.

Current streak:
Indianapolis has won 8 straight games.

Team records:
Tennessee: 13-2 SU, 12-2-1 ATS
Indianapolis: 11-4 SU, 6-9 ATS

Tennessee most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 10-0
When playing within the division are 7-3

Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in December are 8-2
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 1-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 42½.

The Cowboys were upset 33-24 by the Ravens as 5-point favorites last time time out. The combined 57 points sailed OVER the posted total of 39.

Tony Romo completed 24-of-45 pass attempts for 252 yards with two touchdowns in a losing effort.

The Eagles lost to Washington 10-3 as a 6-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Donovan McNabb threw for 230 yards with no touchdown and no interceptions for Philadelphia and Brian Westbrook rushed for 45 yards on 12 carries.

Team records:
Dallas: 9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS
Philadelphia: 8-6-1 SU, 9-6 ATS

Dallas most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Dallas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 1-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 42½.

The Cowboys were upset 33-24 by the Ravens as 5-point favorites last time time out. The combined 57 points sailed OVER the posted total of 39.

Tony Romo completed 24-of-45 pass attempts for 252 yards with two touchdowns in a losing effort.

The Eagles lost to Washington 10-3 as a 6-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Donovan McNabb threw for 230 yards with no touchdown and no interceptions for Philadelphia and Brian Westbrook rushed for 45 yards on 12 carries.

Team records:
Dallas: 9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS
Philadelphia: 8-6-1 SU, 9-6 ATS

Dallas most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 5-5

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Dallas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Oddsmakers currently have the Jets listed as 3-point favorites versus the Dolphins, while the game's total is sitting at 43.

The Dolphins defeated Kansas City 38-31 as a 3.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Chad Pennington passed for 235 yards with three touchdowns and an interception for Miami, while Anthony Fasano caught three passes for 47 yards with two touchdowns in the win.

The Jets lost to Seattle 13-3 as a 3.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41).

Brett Favre passed for 187 yards with two interceptions for the Jets, while Thomas Jones rushed for 67 yards on 17 carries.

Current streak:
Miami has won 4 straight games.

Team records:
Miami: 10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS
New York: 9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS

Miami most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the division are 3-7

New York most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
Miami is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens

Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 11-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game's total is sitting at 37½.

Jacksonville was defeated 31-24 by Indianapolis in Week 16, as 6-point underdogs at home. The game's 55 points sailed OVER the posted total of 44.

David Garrard completed 28-of-41 for 329 yards with a TD, while also rushing for a touchdown in the loss.

The Ravens got past the Cowboys by a final score of 33-24 last time out, as 5-point underdogs. That game's combined 57 points sailed OVER the posted total of 39.

Le'Ron McClain had 22 carries for 139 yards and a touchdown.

Team records:
Jacksonville: 5-10 SU, 4-11 ATS
Baltimore: 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS

Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7

Baltimore most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Jacksonville's last 17 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 7-point favorites versus the Seahawks, while the game's total is sitting at 46.

The Seahawks defeated the Jets 13-3 as a 3.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41).

Seneca Wallace passed for 175 yards with a touchdown for the Seahawks, while Maurice Morris rushed for 116 yards on 29 carries in the win.

The Cardinals lost to New England 47-7 as an 8-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).

Kurt Warner threw for only 30 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Arizona and Larry Fitzgerald caught three passes for 101 yards and a touchdown.

Current streak:
Seattle has won 2 straight games.
Arizona has lost 2 straight games.

Team records:
Seattle: 4-11 SU, 7-7-1 ATS
Arizona: 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS

Seattle most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 8-2

Arizona most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing within the division are 8-2

A few trends to consider:
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games at home
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers

Oddsmakers currently have the 49ers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Redskins, while the game's total is sitting at 37½.

The Redskins defeated Philadelphia 10-3 as a 6-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Jason Campbell passed for 144 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Washington, while Clinton Portis rushed for 70 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries in the win.

The 49ers defeated St. Louis 17-16 as a 3.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42).

Shaun Hill passed for 216 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions for San Francisco and Isaac Bruce caught seven passes for 61 yards and a touchdown for San Francisco in the win.

Team records:
Washington: 8-7 SU, 6-8-1 ATS
San Francisco: 6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS

Washington most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5

San Francisco most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers

Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 8-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 50½.

The Broncos lost to Buffalo 30-23 as a 6.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (46.5).

Jay Cutler threw for 359 yards with an interception and a two touchdown runs for Denver, while Brandon Marshall caught 10 passes for 129 yards.

The Chargers defeated Tampa Bay 41-24 as a 4.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).

Philip Rivers passed for 287 yards with four touchdown passes for San Diego, while Antonio Gates caught four passes for 43 yards with a pair of touchdowns.

Current streak:
Denver has lost 2 straight games.
San Diego has won 3 straight games.

Team records:
Denver: 8-7 SU, 4-10-1 ATS
San Diego: 7-8 SU, 6-8-1 ATS

Denver most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 5-5

San Diego most recently:
When playing in December are 10-0
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Denver's last 24 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Denver is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Diego
Denver is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Denver is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
San Diego is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver

 
Posted : December 27, 2008 9:49 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

OAKLAND (4 - 11) at TAMPA BAY (9 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 18-40 ATS (-26.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

DETROIT (0 - 15) at GREEN BAY (5 - 10)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 5-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS (9 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 6 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 125-88 ATS (+28.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NY GIANTS (12 - 3) at MINNESOTA (9 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
NY GIANTS are 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NY GIANTS are 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in dome games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CHICAGO (9 - 6) at HOUSTON (7 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

CAROLINA (11 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (8 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

ST LOUIS (2 - 13) at ATLANTA (10 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 45-66 ATS (-27.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
ST LOUIS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

KANSAS CITY (2 - 13) at CINCINNATI (3 - 11 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


JACKSONVILLE (5 - 10) at BALTIMORE (10 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TENNESSEE (13 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
TENNESSEE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
TENNESSEE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TENNESSEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
TENNESSEE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TENNESSEE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
TENNESSEE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 5-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CLEVELAND (4 - 11) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI (10 - 5) at NY JETS (9 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 5-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW ENGLAND (10 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

SEATTLE (4 - 11) at ARIZONA (8 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
SEATTLE is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WASHINGTON (8 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 9)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

DENVER (8 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 35-56 ATS (-26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 5-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 
Posted : December 27, 2008 9:53 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Oakland at Tampa Bay
Oakland: 0-7 ATS vs. NFC
Tampa Bay: 18-6 Under off DD home loss

Detroit at Green Bay
Detroit: 19-8 Over off BB losses
Green Bay: 5-0 ATS vs. Detroit

(TC) Dallas at Philadelphia
Dallas: 8-0 ATS if the line is +3 to -3
Philadelphia: 14-5 Under as home favorite

NY Giants at Minnesota
NY Giants: 5-1 ATS off home win
Minnesota: 18-35 ATS off SU loss as favorite

Chicago at Houston
Chicago: n/a
Houston: 6-1 Over off SU loss

Carolina at New Orleans
Carolina: 8-2 Over after allowing 450+ total yards
New Orleans: 6-0 ATS off road game

St. Louis at Atlanta
St. Louis: 9-2 Over at Atlanta
Atlanta: 0-7 ATS off BB SU wins

Kansas City at Cincinnati
Kansas City: 9-2 ATS Away vs. conference
Cincinnati: 2-9 ATS vs. conference

(TC) Jacksonville at Baltimore
Jacksonville: 4-11 ATS this season
Baltimore: 11-4 ATS this season

Tennessee at Indianapolis
Tennessee: 4-0 ATS in dome games
Indianapolis: 10-23 ATS last 2 weeks of the regular season

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Cleveland: 1-8 ATS off DD loss as favorite
Pittsburgh: 8-3 Over vs. conference

(TC) Miami at NY Jets
Miami: 49-72 ATS vs. division
NY Jets: 9-2 Over after scoring 14 points or less

New England at Buffalo
New England: 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Buffalo: 5-1 Over off SU win as road underdog

Seattle at Arizona
Seattle: 0-6 ATS Away off DD home win
Arizona: 6-0 ATS at home off TO margin of -2 or worse

Washington at San Francisco
Washington: 10-0-1 Under L11 games
San Francisco: 7-16 ATS vs. NFC

Denver at San Diego
Denver: 3-14 ATS vs. division
San Diego: 9-2 ATS off BB SU wins

 
Posted : December 27, 2008 9:55 pm
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
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Topic starter
 

CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina

CHICAGO vs. HOUSTON

Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland

DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

KANSAS CITY vs. CINCINNATI
Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 3-11-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games

NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

OAKLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
Oakland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Oakland is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Oakland

ST. LOUIS vs. ATLANTA
St. Louis is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games

TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home

DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Philadelphia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Dallas

JACKSONVILLE vs. BALTIMORE
Jacksonville is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Baltimore's last 17 games when playing Jacksonville

MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Jets are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Miami

SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Arizona is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing Seattle

WASHINGTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Washington is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Denver is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of San Diego's last 24 games when playing at home against Denver

 
Posted : December 27, 2008 9:57 pm
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Posts: 318493
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Topic starter
 

Tips and Trends

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Cowboys: Dallas has lost five straight December games to Philadelphia and simply needs a win here to get into the playoffs. The Cowboys have faced the NFL's top two defenses the last couple weeks and now have to play the league's third-ranked unit. “It’s all just part of a full season,” Dallas QB Tony Romo said. “We’ve got to find a way to grind it out and get into the tournament. If you get in, you have a chance. It’s a matter of doing the things it takes to get you in position.”

Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 December games.
Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. NFC East.

Key Injuries - RB Marion Barber (toe) is questionable.
S Ken Hamlin (foot) is questionable.
TE Jason Witten (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (Side Play of the Day)

Eagles (-1.5, O/U 43): Philadelphia's fate could be decided before the team takes the field, as losses by Tampa Bay and Chicago or Minnesota could leave a spot in the postseason open. Regardless, the Eagles would love nothing more than to knock out the Cowboys in the regular-season finale, which could also be QB Donovan McNabb's last game in Philly. “You can’t worry about all the different things that you can’t control,” Eagles head coach Andy Reid said. “You just have to go play, that’s the important thing.”

Favorite is 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Philadelphia's last 9 home games.

Key Injuries - WR Hank Baskett (knee) is questionable.
WR Kevin Curtis (calf) is questionable.
DE Victor Abiamiri (foot) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Dolphins: Former Jets QB Chad Pennington will get the opportunity to stick it to his old team in the regular-season finale and get Miami into the playoffs as AFC East champs. The Dolphins simply need to win this game at the Meadowlands to complete an unbelievable turnaround from 1-15 a year ago. “This is the only way fate would have it, right?” Pennington said. “I just don’t think it would happen any other way. There wouldn’t be any other scenario. This is how sports works.”

Dolphins are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 games vs. AFC East.
The OVER is 8-0 in Miami's last 8 Week 17 games.

Key Injuries - CB Will Allen (groin) is questionable.
LB Channing Crowder (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)

Jets (-3, O/U 42): Future Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre was brought to New York to get this team into the playoffs, and he will need some help to make that happen. The Jets need to win this game and have the Patriots lose at Buffalo in order to make it to the postseason following a loss at Seattle last week. “I’m disappointed, as everyone else in this building is disappointed,” Favre said. “The opportunities that were presented to us, we couldn’t have asked for a better opportunity. I’m disappointed because we didn’t capitalize on that, as our fans are, as everyone else is.”

Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Week 17 games.
The OVER is 6-2-1 in New York's last 9 games overall.

Key Injuries - DE Bryan Thomas (shoulder) is questionable.
OT Wayne Hunter (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

Broncos: Denver is in a very tough position after looking like it would easily win the AFC West. Now the Broncos have to go on the road against one of the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl with the division title on the line. “Unfortunately we’re not going to be able to go up there and take it easy,” Denver WR Brandon Marshall said. “We’re going to have to go up there in their back yard and prove to them that we’re better than them. They’re a good team, they’re playing better now, and they’ve got all the momentum.”

Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. AFC West.
The OVER is 9-3 in Denver's last 12 games vs. AFC West.

Key Injuries - LB Spencer Larsen (groin) is questionable.
CB Marlon McCree (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Chargers (-8, O/U 50.5): San Diego will get the opportunity to avenge a 39-38 loss at Denver in Week 2 that featured a blown call by referee Ed Hochuli and make the playoffs at home. The Chargers have outscored the Broncos 71-23 in the last two home meetings. “We were 4-8 - we could have shut it down,” San Diego TE Antonio Gates said. “Honestly, you know, we could have said, ‘You know what, Denver ain’t going to lose three in a row.’ We could have taken that mind-set. But it was more about the San Diego Chargers and what we were trying to accomplish. Eventually that gave us a chance to sit here and play.”

Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 December games.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Key Injuries - LB Anthony Waters (hamstring) is questionable.
WR Malcom Floyd (abdominal) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30

 
Posted : December 27, 2008 9:57 pm
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Posts: 318493
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Topic starter
 

NFL Today

Week 17 games

Raiders (4-11) @ Buccaneers (9-6)-- Bucs need win, then need Eagles to beat Dallas to make playoffs; they've lost last three games, allowing 31 ppg (nine TDs on 32 drives)- they're 6-1 at home, 4-3 as home favorite, after losing to Chargers last week. Kiffin's leaving for Tennessee cannot be helping Buc defense. Oakland is 4-3 as road dog, losing away games by 1-31-19-2-27 points. NFC South home favorites are 9-6 vs spread; AFC West road dogs are 9-7. Under is 10-1 in last 11 Oakland games. Bucs' only Super Bowl win came against Raiders, Gruden's former team.

Lions (0-15) @ Packers (5-10)
-- Detroit will be the first-ever 0-16 NFL team if they lose to Packer team that lost in OT at Chicago late Monday night, their fifth loss in row. Packers beat Detroit 48-25 in Week 2 (-3), blowing 21-3 halftime lead, then scoring last 24 points of game. Detroit covered its last five road games, losing by 2-7-4-9-10 points. Lions gave up 31+ points in six of last seven games- they've scored only six TDs on their last 52 drives in last six games. Six of last eight Detroit games went over the total. NFC North favorites are 7-4 vs spread, 4-3 at home.

Cowboys (9-6) @ Eagles (8-6-1)-- Philly is eliminated if Tampa beat the Raiders in 1:00 game, but hatred level for Dallas is high enough that they will still give top effort here. Cowboys won first meeting 41-37 in Week 2 (-6.5), as Romo averaged 10.4 yds/pass attempt, but this is December and Dallas is once again struggling, losing two of last three games- they're 1-4 in last five road games, losing to Cards, Rams, Steelers, Giants and beating Redskins 14-10. Philly had three-game win streak snapped last week by Redskins- they're 5-2 at home, winning by 35-9-13-28-20 pts.

Giants (12-3) @ Vikings (9-6)-- Big Blue clinched home field thru NFC playoffs last week with dramatic OT win, ending two-game skid. Vikes need win to clinch NFC North title after fumbling seven times in 24-17 home loss to Falcons. No way will Giants have same intensity as last week, when they ran ball for 301 yards in dramatic setting-- key point is going to be how long Coughlin plays key starters (especially Jacobs, the key to their ground game). Minnesota won five of its last six at home. NFC North home favorites are 5-6 vs spread out of division; NFC East road underdogs are 0-3.

Bears (9-6) @ Texans (7-8)-- Chicago needs win and Minnesota loss to win NFC North; Bears won last three games, but lost three of last four on road, with only win at lowly St Louis. Chicago failed to cover its last three tries as an underdog. Houston had won four in row before bad loss in Oakland last week; they won five of last six at home after they blew home opener to Colts. Last five Houston games stayed under the total, as did five of last seven Chicago games. NFC North road underdogs are 10-5 vs spread out of the division; AFC South home favorites are 5-12.

Panthers (10-5) @ Saints (8-7)-- Carolina needs win to clinch its divsion and get first-round bye; Saints are trying for winning season, and to get Brees 5,000-yard passing season. Panthers crushed New Orleans 30-7 in first meeting (-3), outscoring Saints 17-0 in second half. This is the first NFC South divisional game this year where road team is favored- New Orleans is 5-1 in Superdome, losing only to Vikings- their home wins are by 4-14-31-22-4 points. Over is 6-1-1 in Saints' last eight games, 5-1 in last six Carolina games. Panthers get a week off if they win this game.

Rams (2-13) @ Falcons (10-5)-- Atlanta wins division, gets first round bye if they win here and Saints upset Carolina; Falcons won four of last five games, but their last four games were all decided by seven points or less. Rams lost last nine games, are 2-5 as road dog this season, tanking in most games, with road losses by 35-24-44-19-24 points. Falcons are 4-2 vs spread as favorite this season. In their last five non-division tilts, Rams allowed an average of 175.6 rushing yards/game, simply pathetic. NFC West road dogs are 6-12 vs spread; NFC South home faves, 9-6.

Chiefs (2-13) @ Bengals (3-11-1)-- Cincinnati won its last two games, giving up one TD on 21 possessions- they were favored in three of first four games this season, but lost all three SU, and haven't been favored in any game since. Chiefs lost last three games, all by seven or less points; they covered three of last four games, also covered their last four games on foreign soil, with road losses by 7-24-34-4-1-7 points. AFC North home favorites are 5-5 vs spread in its non-divisional games. AFC West road dogs are 9-7 vs spread. Last three Bengal games stayed under total.

Jaguars (5-10) @ Ravens (10-5)-- Baltimore makes playoffs with a win here; they won four of last five games, are 4-1 as home favorite, winning at home by 7-18-19-29-14 points (lost at home to Titans and Steelers). Jaguars fired personnel guy (former NFL QB) Harris, making him prime scapegoat for dreadful season- they lost seven of last nine games, are 2-2 as road dog- only three of their ten losses are by more than ten points. AFC North home favorites are 5-5 vs spread outside its division; AFC South road dogs are 6-3. Six of Ravens' seven road games stayed under.

Titans (13-2) @ Colts (11-4)-- Indy won its last eight games, but with playoff game at AFC West champ next week, Dungy is likely to sit out many starters, maybe even Manning, which would explain Titans being road favorite here. Tennessee clinched home field through playoffs last week, but Fisher has said he'll keep playing hard, and he has next week off to rest. Colts scored 35-31-31 points in last three games vs terrible teams (Bengals-Lions-Jaguars)- they're 2-1 as underdog this year, 5-2 at home, winning last five. Titans are 5-1 against spread as a road favorite.

Browns (4-11) @ Steelers (11-4)-- Pittsburgh struggled last two weeks, scoring 13-14 points (three TDs/23 drives); they're 5-2 at home, winning by 21-3-1-17-7 points (3-4 as home favorite). Steelers beat Browns 10-6 in Week 2 (-6), forcing the Browns to go 3/out five times on nine drives. Browns have three QBs hurt, so newly-acquired Gradkowski could get a start, or they could use Cribbs at QB and run Wildcat. Cleveland lost its last five games, seven of last eight; they're 4-3 as road dog, losing away games by 18-3-19-20 pts. Overall, they covered two of last eight games.

Dolphins (10-5) @ Jets (9-6)-- Miami clinches AFC East with win; they won four in row, eight of last nine games, winning 38-31 in coldest game in franchise history at Kansas City last week. Pennington is returning to Swamp to face his old former team that beat Miami 20-14 (+3) in season opener. Jets lost three of last four games; vultures are out, call for head of Mangini if Jets lose here. Gang Green makes playoffs if they win and either Ravens/Patriots lose- good luck. AFC East home favorites are 1-7 against the spread. Seven of last nine Miami games stayed under total.

Patriots (10-5) @ Bills (7-8)-- New England needs win, lot of help to get in playoffs; they won last three games, scoring average of 40 ppg (they scored 13 TDs on last 31 drives). Pats beat Buffalo 20-10 (-3.5) in first meeting, outrushing Bills 144-60, converting 11-18 on third down, and voercoming 9-yard deficit in starting field position. Bills lost seven of last nine games- they lost last three games in Buffalo, by 9-2-7 points. Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in AFC East games, 1-1 at home. Last six New England games all went over the total. Patriots ran ball for 277-183 yards in their last two games, drubbing Raiders, Cardinals.

Seahawks (4-11) @ Cardinals (8-7)-- Arizona has first home playoff tilt in desert next week, but they've lost four of last five games, and lost big in last two, trailing 28-0/31-0 at half, so they need sharp effort to ready for next week's game, against either Carolina/Atlanta. Seattle won its last two games- they lost 26-20 at home in first meeting vs Arizona, a game Redbirds outgained Seattle 458-196. Four of Seattle's last five losses are by six points or less- they're 3-3 as road dog, with road losses by 24-38- 10-2-25 points (won at 49ers, Rams). Over is 9-3 in last 12 Card games.

Redskins (8-7) @ 49ers (6-9)-- Niners are 4-3 under Singletary, but lets face it; they trailed Rams 16-3 with 5:00 left last week, before St Louis snatched defeat from jaws of victory; one thing for sure, 49er defense is much better lately, allowing average of 11.8 ppg in last four games (five TDs allowed on opponents' last 40 drives). Washington lost five of last seven games, snapping its three-game skid by upsetting Philly last week. Redskins are 4-3 on road, losing 24-10/20-13 on last couple road trips. Under is 10-0-1 in Washington's last 11 games, 3-1 in 49ers' last four.

Broncos (8-7) @ Chargers (7-8)
-- Winner here gets AFC West title, as Denver lost last two games, are 5-7 since 3-0 start- they gave up 30-30 points to Panthers/Bills last two games- they've lost field position battle in seven of last nine games. Chargers won last three games to rise from dead, scoring 34-22-41 points (10 TDs on last 34 drives). First meeting was the game when Denver got inadvertant whistle that kept clinching sack/fumble from counting, allowing Broncos to escape with 39-38 win. Rivers averaged 11.7 yards/pass attempt in first meeting, as they rallied from 31-17 halftime deficit to take lead, before Broncos won it late.

 
Posted : December 27, 2008 9:59 pm
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Early Action - Week 17
By Josh Jacobs

Six games waiting to fire off at 1:00 p.m. EST have playoff indications. While some teams need the win to extend life into the postseason, others will look to work for a victory with the hopes of improving its seed positioning.

We’ll begin in the NFC South where Atlanta (10-5 straight up, 9-6 against the spread) and Carolina (11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) are still at odds for the division title. The Falcons will welcome St. Louis (2-13 SU, 5-10 ATS) into their building with the hopes of securing the ‘W’ and improving its playoff arrangement. Combine a victory followed by a Panthers loss against the Saints this week and by virtue of a better record in the NFC, Atlanta would trump its division rival.

The Rams will have plenty on their plate as the Falcons are 6-1 at home this season and have covered five of those seven games. Atlanta’s defense ranks within the top-10 in PPG allowed (19.9) despite giving up 221.3 YPG through the air and 122.5 YPG on the ground.

The Falcons have been installed as underdogs at home just twice this season (covering both times). Most books have installed Atlanta as a heavy, 14-point home favorite with a total resting at 44 ½. This is the first time this season that the Falcons have been listed as double-digit faves.

St. Louis has been in a funk all season long. The Rams are currently involved in a nine-game losing streak, have covered two games in the last seven and have found the end zone for only 13.7 PPG this season. Although the defense is allowing opponents to rack up 28.9 PPG, the ‘under’ has been money with a 7-3-1 record in the last 11.

A 2-5 ATS stint on the road assisted by scoring 11.4 PPG has tagged the Rams as fade central this year. With QB Marc Bulger behind center, St. Louis has thrown for an underachieving 188.6 YPG on the road and 216 YPG in the last three. This has also helped translate into the total going 'under' four times in the last five.

And then there’s the Rams’ 0-6 SU record in the division and 2-9 SU record in the conference. Bettors may want to think extra hard in this spot as St. Louis is 1-5 ATS against divisional opposition and 3-8 ATS when faced against NFC teams.

The last time Atlanta made the playoffs and took the division was back in 2004. The Falcons clinched the wild card last week after defeating Minnesota, 24-17. QB Matt Ryan’s numbers haven’t been explosive, throwing for 340 yards with one TD and two interceptions in the last two wins, but the team continues to impress.

Carolina (-3, 52) at New Orleans

The Panthers (11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) have been untouchable at home this year (8-0) but road trips have been a struggle. Coming off a tough 34-28 overtime loss in New York last Sunday, Carolina is looking to seal up the No. 2 seed in the NFC. A defeat in this spot could result in the Panthers becoming a wild card team.

It hasn’t been the offense causing concern in New Orleans, it’s the defense sacrificing 214 PPG, 332.2 YPG allowed through the air and 110.1 YPG given up on the ground. The good news for gamblers is that the Saints are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 and 5-0-1 ATS in the last six.

Talking about home field numbers, the Saints have been a hot 5-1 SU and ATS inside the Superdome. Scoring 32.7 PPG, working for 425.2 total YPG and passing for 314.5 YPG are all key components to wiping out the opposition at home. All of this airing the ball out has also done wonders for total players with the ‘over’ at 4-1 in New Orleans home games. Books aren’t taking any chances and have gone on to install the total at 52 points.

The road team is a hot 14-2 ATS in head-to-head play, while the ‘under’ is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. By scoring 25.4 PPG and rushing through opposing teams for 146.8 YPG, the Panthers are 5-1 on the ‘over’ in their last six. Surprisingly, Carolina has been outyarded six times in the last 10 games.

Oakland at Tampa Bay (-13, 39)

There’s a third player hailing from the NFC South. This team not only needs a win but is also banking on some outside help. The Buccaneers (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) will need to garner a big win against the Raiders (4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS) this week. But in order to secure a spot in the playoffs, Tampa is hoping that Dallas (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS) botches up its shot to extend life when it takes on Philadelphia on the road.

Due to most books installing the Buccaneers as 13-point home favorites, general perception is slamming Oakland to cover the spread (76% of the betting population is taking Oakland in this one). In its nine wins on the season, Tampa has won by a double-digit margins four times and has been outscored by double-digit points only twice.

The Bucs are coming of their first home loss last week. San Diego (7-8 SU, 6-8-1 ATS) waltzed onto the West Coast of Florida, dismantled Tampa Bay 41-24 and is now a factor for a playoff birth when it takes on Denver. But getting back to the Bucs, we’re looking at a team who’s been outyarded in four straight games. And dropping three of those four contests correlates to the problem of moving the ball on offense. Tampa has scored 19 PPG in the last three defeats while being stampeded on for 30.7 PPG allowed.

The Raiders are coming off a 27-16 win over the Texans last week. Second year slinger JaMarcus Russell was able to pick apart Houston’s secondary for 236 passing yards with two scores as RBs Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden combined for 139 rushing yards. The ‘W’ also snapped a three-game ATS slide. Oakland is 2-4-1 ATS on the road this season and 2-3 ATS in its last five.

The home team is 0-4 ATS in the last four head-to-head games.

N.Y. Giants (+7, 42) at Minnesota

Just because the Giants (12-3 SU, 11-4 ATS) have the No. 1 seed locked and loaded, don’t expect them to lie down in the middle of the road for Minnesota (9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS). For the Vikings, a win outright or a Chicago loss would mean clinching the NFC North.

The Vikings have covered three of their last five, are 7-3 in their last 10 but took a tough 24-17 loss against the Falcons as a slap in the face. If there’s one thing to be certain of it’s that New York is sure to limit QB Eli Manning’s playing time. Giants’ RB Brandon Jacobs is expected to get some much needed rest as well.

Minnesota is a weak 4-7 ATS versus NFC teams this season. This will be only the third time that the Vikings have been installed as favorites of seven points or higher. Heed Minnesota’s 5-2 record at home and 7-2 record on turf this season. However, the team’s ability to cover on turf is only standing at a 4-5 ATS record.

This game will involve the best rushing team (Giants are averaging 158.9 YPG on the ground) versus the sternest running defense (Vikings are allowing 73 YPG on the ground).

Chicago (-3, 46½) at Houston

The final showdown at 1:00 p.m. ET for an NFC playoff shot will have the Bears (7-8 SU, 6-7-2 ATS) traveling to the “Lone Star State” to square off against the Texans (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS). Even if Chicago scores the ‘W’ it must rely on the Giants to down Minnesota for a playoff spot.

After scoring just 14½-PPG from Week 10 to 13, the Bears have put the peddle to the metal. Chicago has upped the ante in its last three wins by finding the end zone for 23.3 PPG. The increase in offense production has actually led to a 2-1 record on the ‘under’.

Total bettors have been blessed as Houston has nailed the ‘under’ in five straight games. And a 5-1 ATS streak in the last six isn’t anything to sneeze at. A 27-16 loss in Oakland ended what was five straight ATS wins.

The Texans have been installed as home favorites five times this season with a 2-3 ATS record indication of uneasiness from backers.

The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Chicago is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss.

OT Tip Sheet

-- The Patriots (10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS) have two scenarios which could net them extended life for a playoff push. First, New England must defeat a Buffalo (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) team coming off a 30-23 win in Denver last week. Then Miami must lose to the Jets in order for the Pats to grab the AFC East title. The other option is for Baltimore to falter against Jacksonville this week for a shot at the wild card spot (this would be the second scenario if Miami leaves New York with the ‘W’).

-- New England has covered its last two games as a nine (against Arizona last week) and 6 ½-point favorite (in Oakland during Week 15). While a 3-5 ATS record hasn’t sparked the interests of backers this season a 5-2 ATS stint on the road has been plenty sufficient.

-- Books have been slow to act on adjusting totals as New England has gone ‘over’ in six straight games. During this run, the Pats have averaged 34.8 PPG. The highest total set in a Patriots’ game in the last 10 was 48 points back on Week 7 in Denver (the total was a push).

-- Buffalo never recovered from a Week 8 meltdown in Miami (losing 25-16). Since then the Bills are 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. QB Trent Edwards threw for 120 yards with one score and two interceptions in his last meeting against New England in Week 10. The Pats rolled into the win column by the final of 20-10.

-- New England is a perfect 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings against Buffalo. The Pats are 7-2 in their last nine games played on turf.

-- The Bills are 2-7 in their last nine versus a team with a winning record. The ‘under’ is 16-5 in the last 21 head-to-head meetings.

-- Most books have installed New England as a six-point visiting favorite with a total set at anywhere from 39½-to-42½-points.

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Posted : December 27, 2008 10:02 pm
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Three at Four
By B Edwards

Three of the four o'clock Eastern games have playoff implications Sunday. Tensions will be running high in the City of Brotherly Love, as the losing coach is most likely looking at a pink slip. Might it also be Donovan McNabb's last game in an Eagles uniform?

Chad Pennington was shipped out of Gotham when Brett Favre was brought to town. However, Pennington returns to the Meadowlands with a chance to lead his team to a division title and simultaneously jettison the Jets out of the playoff picture. Let's take a closer look at Sunday's late action.

**Cowboys at Eagles**

--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Philadelphia (8-6-1 straight up, 9-6 against the spread) as a one-point favorite with a total of 43 1/2. As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the Eagles at 1 1/2 with the total down to 42 1/2.

--Dallas (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS) has endured a tumultous season typical of a team composed of low-character, me-first players like Terrell Owens and Pacman Jones. Nevertheless, the Cowboys can clinch a playoff berth by beating division-rival Philadelphia. They failed to qualify for the postseason last Saturday when Baltimore went into Texas Stadium and turned the lights out in a 33-24 win as a five-point road underdog.

--Dallas quarterback Tony Romo threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns, but a pair of costly interceptions stole the headlines. Romo's shaky late-season play is coming to the surface once again. Owens certainly isn't helping Romo's cause, constantly complaining that the ball goes to tight end Jason Witten more often (even though the stats clearly show that to not be the case). T.O.'s pissin' and moanin' has Romo pressing to get him the ball rather than properly going through his progressions. The result is a QB that's thinking too much and therefore not playing to the best of his ability. He also missed practice time early this week due to flu-like symptoms. For the year, Romo has a 26/13 touchdown-interception ratio.

--Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb has probably been amused by everything going on in Dallas, but he and Andy Reid have their own issues in Philadelphia. Could either or both be on their way out if the Eagles don't win this game and get to the playoffs? They need to win and hope that Tampa Bay, Chicago and Minnesota lose.

--The Eagles are in the aforementioned predicament because they lost 10-3 last week at Washington as 4 1/2-point favorites. McNabb threw for 230 yards without an interception, but he couldn't orchestrate a touchdown drive. On the game's final play, he connected with Reggie Brown at the goal line, but Brown couldn't get ball across the plane.

--When these teams met on Monday Night Football back in Week 2, Dallas rallied to capture a 41-37 win as a 6 1/2-point home 'chalk.' Romo threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns, including a pair of scoring strikes to Owens. Philly's undoing was a crucial fourth-quarter fumble on a handoff exchange between McNabb and running back Brian Westbrook, who had 24 touches (18 rushes, six receptions) for 103 yards and three TDs.

--Whether Philadelphia fans know it or not, McNabb is still a top-five NFL quarterback in my opinion and undoubtedly one of the 10 best in the league. He has 3,741 passing yards this year with a 21/11 touchdown-interception ratio.

--The Eagles are 5-2 both SU and ATS at home in 2008, while the Cowboys are 3-4 both SU and ATS on the road.

--Dallas has seen the 'over' go 8-7 overall, but the 'under' is 4-3 in its road games. Philadelphia has watched the 'under' go 8-6-1 overall, 4-2-1 in its home outings.

**Dolphins at Jets**

--I've always liked Chad Pennington. He's just a winner -- always has been, always will be. He's a guy that'll play hurt and find a way to get the job done. His critics have been telling him to retire for years after surgeries on his elbow and shoulder took away a good chunk of his arm strength. It wasn't Pennington's fault the Jets couldn't make a field goal in that crushing overtime loss at Pittsburgh several years ago. It wasn't his fault that a major injury caused him to miss most of the 2005 campaign. When the Jets -- the team that drafted Pennington and made him the franchise QB -- traded for Brett Favre, they immediately cut Pennington loose. Therefore, it's fitting that Pennington makes his return to the Meadowlands this week for what could be his finest hour. If Miami wins, the 'Fins capture the AFC East title and send the Jets home for the offseason.

--LVSC opened New York (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 42. A lot of Las Vegas betting shops have moved the Jets to 2 1/2, while the total remains 42 at most spots.

--Miami (10-5 SU, 7-8) has won four in a row and eight of its last nine games. With that said, the Dolphins haven't been a lucrative team to support. They are just 4-5 ATS in their last nine games.

--Miami collected a 38-31 win at Kansas City last week, cashing tickets as a 3 1/2-point road favorite. Pennington completed 26-of-34 throws for 235 yards and three TDs.

--Since a five-game winning streak that capped by stirring road wins at New England and at Tennessee, the Jets have lost three of their last four games. They went down 10-3 at Seattle in snowy conditions last week. Therefore, New York has to beat Miami and hope that Buffalo knocks off New England in order to win the AFC East.

--Eric Mangini's job could be on the line in this game. During his three-year tenure, the Jets are 7-5-2 ATS as home favorites.

--Miami linebacker Channing Crowder (knee) and cornerback Will Allen (groin) missed practice Wednesday and were limited on Thursday. Both are "questionable" and will most likely be game-time decisions. Crowder, who has 105 tackles for the season, missed last week's win at KC.

--The 'Fins have played outstanding football on the road, posting a 5-2 record both SU and ATS. Likewise, the Jets are 5-2 both SU and ATS at home.

--The Jets have dominated this rivalry over the last decade and change, especially for our purposes. In fact, New York owns a 20-4-2 spread record against the 'Fins in the last 26 head-to-head meetings.

--When these clubs met in Week 1, the Jets captured a 20-14 win as three-point road favorites.

--The 'under' is 9-6 overall for Miami, but the 'over' is 4-3 in its road assignments. The Jets have watched the 'over' go 8-6-1 overall, 5-2 in their home games.

**Jags at Ravens**

--LVSC opened Baltimore (10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS) as a 12-point favorite with a total of 35 1/2. As of late Friday, the Ravens were still 12 with the total up to 37.

--Jacksonville (5-10 SU, 4-11 ATS) has had a dreadful season and its GM fell on the ax earlier this week. That means Jack Del Rio, who signed an extension after leading the Jags to a playoff victory at Pittsburgh last season, will return.

--Del Rio's squad has a 3-4 record both SU and ATS on the road.

--John Harbaugh's team can clinch a playoff berth with a win. Even if the Ravens lose, they will go to the postseason if New England loses at Buffalo.

--Baltimore is 5-2 both SU and ATS at home this year.

--The 'over' is 9-5-1 overall for the Ravens, but the 'under' is 4-3 in their home games.

--The 'under' is 8-6-1 overall for the Jags, 4-2-1 in their road assignments.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

--Dallas is an atrocious 1-8 ATS in its last nine games played in December.

--In 2008, Pennington has a 17/7 touchdown-interception ratio, while Favre has a 21/19 TD-INT ratio.

--With nothing to gain, Arizona will play host to Seattle as a 6 1/2-point home favorite. Bettors shouldn't expect Cardinals' WR Anquan Boldin to be in uniform (listed "doubtful"). Also, Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck isn't expected to play.

--ELIMINATED! The Texans let me down last week. I knew I was in trouble when I had to take my first road team of the season. My lone home option was the Bucs, who went down against San Diego. Obviously, I should've gone with the Saints, who spanked the Lions 42-7.

--Quote of the Week: "If only this one could be blamed on Terrell Owens. If only. Because that's an argument I would love to make. See, the more I think about it, the more I think I hate T.O. Not dislike him. Hate him. But this one wasn't Terrell Owens' fault. Not entirely." -- CBSSports.com's Gregg Doyel, commenting about the Cowboys' loss to Baltimore last week, particularly the poor play of Dallas safety Ken Hamlin.

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Posted : December 27, 2008 10:03 pm
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Total Talk - Week 17
By Chris David

We’ve reached the 17th installment of Total Talk and for your gambling pleasure I decided to delve into each of the 16 matchups and attempt to come up with an informative prediction.

Press, Pass or Fade…that’s up to you…all well wishes or hate mail can be sent to [email protected]

Remember it’s the holidays!

Early Action

Oakland at Tampa Bay (39): Seems simple enough – the Raiders have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 on the road and the Buccaneers have watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 at home. Tampa Bay has lost three straight (allowing 30.6 PPG) and needs the win to remain alive in the postseason. I don’t see the Bucs’ defense getting burned again nor do I expect the Raiders to post another 20-spot on the board.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 27 Oakland 10 – UNDER

Detroit at Green Bay (43): The Lions’ defense (32.4 PPG) is atrocious so anything is possible in this spot. Still it’s hard to see the two teams combine for 73 points again, which happened in Green Bay’s 48-25 win over Detroit in Week 2. I expect Detroit’s defense to play hard in its attempt to avoid imperfection in another game you probably shouldn't wager on.
Final Score: Green Bay 20 Detroit 13 – UNDER

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (42): New York has nothing to play for and could rest its starters. It’s tough to handicap these games from a side and total perspective, especially with backups. Minnesota needs a win for the division, so you would normally expect a good effort from the home squad. We’re calling for a conservative, clock running battle at the Metrodome.
Final Score: Minnesota 17 New York 16 – UNDER

Chicago at Houston (46.5): The Texans were an easy ‘over’ bet all year, but the last five games have gone ‘under’. The Bears need a win to have any chance of a postseason berth and this is their first road trip in four games. The last time that happened, Chicago put up three points. Houston’s offense has simmered and the defense has improved drastically down the stretch.
Final Score: Chicago 21 Houston 19 - UNDER

Carolina at New Orleans (52): This NFC South showdown could be fun to watch, especially with the Panthers needing the win to clinch the division. The Saints would love to get QB Drew Brees the passing mark (needs 402 yards), which would make you believe he’s going to chuck it all day. Carolina shut the gunslinger down on Oct. 19 (30-7) and seven of the last eight have gone ‘under’ the total in this series. New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ go 5-1-1 at home.
Final Score: Carolina 34 New Orleans 33 - OVER

Atlanta at St. Louis (44.5): Atlanta needs the win and a Panthers’ loss to secure the NFC South. The Rams have been playing out the string since the opening week. St. Louis has too many inconsistencies on offense, which is very surprising considering some of the talent. Atlanta likes to pound the clock and if it’s up on the scoreboard, look for Michael Turner to go left, right and up the middle all day long.
Final Score: Atlanta 28 St. Louis 15 - UNDER

Kansas City at Cincinnati (38): The odds on this one says a lot and both the side and total look like a big old trap to this writer. The public bets on offense, which the Chiefs have but you have to pick your spots. Kansas City left it all on the line last week in a 38-31 loss to Miami and it will be hard to duplicate that effort here. Twice, the Chiefs have posted 30-plus this season and the two games following – they scored 0 and 20 points. The Cincy defense has played well lately at home. Ugly game with some precipitation and wind helps a low-scoring affair.
Final Score: Cincinnati 16 Kansas City 13 - UNDER

Tennessee at Indianapolis (38): The Titans and Colts shouldn’t even line up for this matchup, since neither team can improve their playoff positioning. Normally I would expect a lot of handoffs in this game, but I still think the starters for both teams will combine for 20-24 points in the first half, which means you need two scores in the final 30 minutes. Something tells me the Vince Young (dare I say it) might actually show up and make a big play or two for the Titans. Low total indoors is always tempting and we’re on it.
Final Score: Tennessee 24 Indianapolis 16 - OVER

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (32): Lowest total on the board comes out of Western Pennsylvania on Sunday. The first meeting saw the Steelers win 10-6, which was the first ‘under’ in the previous seven battles. QB Byron Leftwich should see most of the snaps for Pittsburgh while Cleveland counters with Bruce Gradkowski, who can move the football. Whenever you see a total this low, it usually goes ‘under’ more often than not. We’ll probably be laughing at a 0-0 halftime score but still taking a shot on this number.
Final Score: Cleveland 24 Pittsburgh 20 - OVER

New England at Buffalo (42.5): The Patriots (48.5 PPG) and Bills (28.5 PPG) both enter this matchup with some stout offensive numbers but the weather in upstate New York should calm those efforts this weekend. The Bills team could’ve packed it in after losing to Miami two weeks ago yet the team has rallied for a pair of solid efforts. The betting public is looking at New England to win and cover on the road but we’re expecting a slugfest.
Final Score: New England 23 Buffalo 19 - UNDER

Afternoon Showdowns

Dallas at Philadelphia (42.5): The vice versa system play fits in this NFC East battle. First go ‘round, Dallas dropped Philadelphia 41-37 in a MNF affair from Texas Stadium. No shot of getting the same amount of fireworks in this crucial contest. The Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their last four and they could be perfect if it wasn’t for a 34-point fourth quarter barrage in last week’s 33-24 loss to Baltimore. Dallas should tighten up its defense and Philadelphia’s “D” always comes to play at home.
Final Score: Dallas 23 Philadelphia 17 - UNDER

Jacksonville at Baltimore (35.5): The Ravens need a win to make the playoffs and based on the point-spread, most would expect that to happen against the hapless Jaguars. Baltimore is only giving up 10.4 PPG at home this year. The problem with taking the ‘under’ in a Ravens’ affair is that their defense is very opportunistic. Provided the Ravens don’t go nuts, this should be a snooze-fest and easily go below the number.
Final Score: Baltimore 23 Jacksonville 6 - UNDER

Miami at N.Y. Jets (42): The Dolphins can clinch the AFC East with a road victory, which is saying a lot after a 1-15 campaign last year. The Miami offense put up 38 last week at the Chiefs and duplicating that number will be tough, especially with this being the fourth road trip in the last five weeks. QB Chad Pennington has been great but he never tosses the ball deep. It’s dink and dunk all day and New York might ground and pound the ball after hearing QB Brett Favre complain about his shoulder. If each team gets to 20, you have a winner but that’s not going to happen. We’re calling for an overtime affair here with Favre getting intercepted for a touchdown in the extra session, which would only be fitting.
Final Score: Miami 23 N.Y. Jets 17 - UNDER

Seattle at Arizona (45): Arizona hasn’t had anything to play for since it clinched the division on Dec. 7 and it’s shown on the field too. The Cards have been outscored 82-21 during this stretch (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) but something tells me the offense will come out firing early and often against the Seahawks on Sunday. Seattle has looked better offensively with Wallace behind center and he could easily get his club on the board in this spot. Look for Arizona backup QB Matt Leinart to get in on the action here as well.
Final Score: Arizona 34 Seattle 20 - OVER

Washington at San Francisco (37): Hard to make an ‘over’ wager on the Redskins, considering the ‘under’ has gone 12-2-1 on the year. The offense hasn’t scored 30-plus points all season but most would expect the unit to be looser under head coach Jim Zorn in this spot. Zorn knows SF, having played them twice a year when he was the QB coach in Seattle. The 49ers return home after two tough road games and the offense (23.3 PPG) has played better in the Bay Area. If you get 17-17, you’ll get at least a push with a 37-point total. I expect that to be the score at half-time in this free for all. Look for a shootout in San Francisco and keep an eye on these teams for next year.
Final Score: Washington 38 San Francisco 30 - OVER

Sunday’s Nightcap

Denver at San Diego (50.5): Right now the public is all over the Chargers in this preliminary playoff showdown but what wins games is defense and don’t be surprised to see both units play well in the finale. Seventy-seven points was scored in Denver’s controversial 39-38 win (revert to Ed Hochul) over San Diego in Week 2. The last three games between the Chargers and Broncos played in December all went ‘under’ the total. Even though the Chargers put up 41 last week against the Bucs, the offense has struggled at home. Expect a sweat shop on the total and side for the betting public.
Final Score: San Diego 28 Denver 21- UNDER

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Posted : December 27, 2008 10:04 pm
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Oakland (4-11, 6-9 ATS) at Tampa Bay (9-6, 8-7 ATS)

The Buccaneers, still in the NFC wild-card race but no longer in control of their own fate, look to at least do their part when they host the Raiders at Raymond James Stadium.

Tampa Bay got smacked by San Diego 41-24 last week as a 3½-point home chalk, suffering its third straight loss and falling to 1-3 ATS in its last four starts. QB Jeff Garcia (21 of 34, 232 yards, 1 TD) took a beating in a sub-par effort, throwing two INTs – with the second one returned for the Chargers’ final TD -- as the Bucs lost the turnover battle 3-0 and allowed San Diego QB Philip Rivers to throw for 287 yards and four TDs.

In order to reach the playoffs, Tampa now must beat the Raiders and have the Cowboys lose to the Eagles.

Oakland upended the surging Texans 27-16 to snap a three-game SU and ATS slide, giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Raiders’ last 12 games. QB JaMarcus Russell (18 of 25, 236 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) lost a fumble for Oakland’s lone turnover, but otherwise had one of his best outings of the season. He got some help from special teams, as Johnnie Lee Higgins returned a punt 80 yards for a TD.

These teams have met twice this decade, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, Oakland won 30-20 laying four points at home in 2004; two seasons earlier, Tampa ripped Oakland 48-21 in the Super Bowl giving 3½ points.

The Buccaneers are on ATS runs of 24-10-3 at home against teams with a losing road record and 4-1 as a home chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-6 on grass, 1-5 against losing teams, 1-4 in December and 1-4 in regular-season finales. The Raiders have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, including 0-5 in Week 17, 3-9 after a non-cover, 2-6 catching more than 10 points and 15-37 in December.

The under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 4-1 at home, 7-3 in Week 17 and 37-18 with the Bucs a home favorite, and the under for Oakland is on stretches of 6-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 with the Raiders a ‘dog and 38-14-2 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Detroit (0-15, 6-9 ATS) at Green Bay (5-10, 8-7 ATS)

The Lions hope to avoid becoming the first 0-16 team in NFL history when they travel to Lambeau Field for an NFC North clash with the Packers.

Detroit was blown out 42-7 by New Orleans as a seven-point home underdog, halting a two-game ATS uptick and moving the Lions to 1-22 SU and 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games. Detroit got 111 rushing yards and a TD out of Kevin Smith, but otherwise got steamrolled, allowing a whopping 532 totals yards while gaining just 255. QB Dan Orlovsky (10 of 23, 125 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INT) committed both his team’s turnovers.

Green Bay fell to Chicago 20-17 in overtime Monday night, losing for the fifth straight week but halting a four-game ATS skid by covering as a four-point road pup. QB Aaron Rodgers (24 of 39, 260 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent effort, and the Pack defense allowed just 210 total yards, but the Bears blocked Mason Crosby’s late 38-yard field-goal attempt, then won it on a field goal in overtime.

Green Bay is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including a 48-25 road victory giving three points in September, and Detroit hasn’t won SU at Lambeau since 1991. Furthermore, the home team is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, and the Lions are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 contests in Green Bay.

Despite their recent ATS woes, the Packers are on pointspread runs of 4-0-1 ATS in Week 17, 13-3 in division play and 14-6 against losing teams. The Lions, meanwhile, are on ATS slides of 1-11 as a dog of 3½-10 points and 5-12 against the NFC, but they have cashed in their last five road games.

The over for Green Bay is on tears of 17-6-1 overall, 8-2 as a home chalk, 12-3 overall as a favorite, 6-2 in division play and 9-3 at Lambeau, and the over for Detroit is on rolls of 7-2-1 overall, 18-6 on the highway and 8-2 in December. However, the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two in Green Bay.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY

Dallas (9-6, 7-8 ATS) at Philadelphia (8-6-1, 9-6 ATS)

The Cowboys, who are in a win-and-they’re-in playoff scenario, head to Lincoln Financial Field to face the NFC East rival Eagles, who need to win and get a lot of help to reach the postseason.

Dallas was bounced by Baltimore 33-24 at home last week as a five-point chalk and has now alternated SU wins and losses over its last four games. QB Tony Romo (24 of 45, 252 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) had both turnovers for the Cowboys, who forced just one turnover. And after Dallas twice climbed within two points during a huge fourth quarter, the defense shockingly gave up back-to-back TD runs of 77 yards by Willis McGahee and 82 yards by Le’Ron McClain.

Philadelphia is coming off a 10-3 loss at Washington as a 4½-point favorite, halting a three-game SU and ATS surge. With the exception of the Eagles’ tie with the Bengals in Week 11, the SU winner has cashed in Philly’s last 12 games. QB Donovan McNabb didn’t get much mileage out of 46 throws, completing 26 for just 230 yards, and in a defensive slugfest, McNabb’s fumble was the game’s lone turnover.

Philadelphia is on a 4-1 ATS run (3-2 SU) in this rivalry, losing 41-37 at Dallas in September but covering as a 6½-point pup. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS uptick, and the underdog has cashed in seven of the last eight clashes between these teams.

The Cowboys are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games after a SU loss, but they are on ATS skids of 0-4 getting points, 0-5 in Week 17, 1-8 in December, 1-4 in roadies and 2-7 inside the division. The Eagles have dropped four straight ATS decisions in regular-season finales, but they carry positive ATS trends of 5-2 at home, 5-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 in the NFC East.

The under for Dallas is on runs of 5-1 in December and 6-2 in Week 17, and the under for Philadelphia is on streaks of 5-1-1 December, 6-2-1 at home, 6-2 the last week of the season and 40-15-5 with the Eagles favored. However, the total has gone high in five of the last seven meetings between these two in Philly.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA

N.Y. Giants (12-3, 11-4 ATS) at Minnesota (9-6, 6-9 ATS)

The Vikings, who can claim the NFC North title with a win at the Metrodome, take on the defending Super Bowl champion Giants, who have already locked up home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs.

Minnesota fell to Arizona 24-17 as a 3½-point home favorite, ending a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS run. QB Tarvaris Jackson (22 of 36, 233 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a fair outing as the Vikes outgained the Cardinals 350-222, but he also gave away two of his three fumbles as Minnesota lost the turnover battle, 4-0. The Falcons got 10 points off turnovers, negating an otherwise solid defensive game by the Vikings.

New York rallied to knock off Carolina 34-28 in overtime as a 3½-point home chalk in a battle for home-field advantage, giving the SU winner a 14-1 ATS mark this season in Giants game (12-0 ATS in the last 12). QB Eli Manning (17 of 27, 181 yards, 1 TD) didn’t put up big numbers, but he led a turnover-free offense that racked up an eye-popping 301 rushing yards. RB Derrick Ward went off for 215 yards on 15 carries, and RB Brandon Jacobs (24 carries, 87 yards) scored three TDs, including the game winner.

With nothing to play for, the Giants will likely rest or at least limit several key players this week.

Minnesota is 2-0 SU and ATS in its last two meetings with the Giants, both in New York, including last year’s 41-27 thumping when the Vikings picked off Manning four times and returned three for TDs. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the road team is on a 5-0 ATS tear.

The Vikings are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½-10 points and 5-2 after a non-cover, but they are in pointspread funks of 1-7 in Week 17, 1-5 in December, 2-6 against the NFC and 3-7 as a favorite. The Giants, meanwhile, are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 20-6 overall, 8-1 getting points, 14-2 against winning teams and 20-6 on the highway.

The over has hit in New York’s last five Week 17 tilts and is 36-17-3 in Minnesota’s last 56 games after a SU loss, but the under is 7-2 in the Giants’ last nine games as a road ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Chicago (9-6, 6-7-2 ATS) at Houston (7-8 SU and ATS)

The Bears, who must win and get some help to keep their season going, roll into Reliant Stadium to take on the Texans.

Chicago won in overtime for the second straight week, this time edging Green Bay 20-17 on Monday night for its third consecutive SU win. However, the Bears failed to cash as a four-point home chalk. QB Kyle Orton (14 of 27, 142 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) had a mostly dismal day, but he led a late TD drive to tie the game, and Chicago forced OT when Alex Brown blocked Green Bay’s 38-yard game-winning field goal attempt in the final minute. Orton then led the Bears to the winning field goal on a seven-play drive to open the extra session.

Houston stumbled at Oakland 27-16 as a seven-point road favorite, ending a four-game SU and five-game ATS uptick and killing the Texans’ chance to post their first winning season. QB Matt Schaub (19 of 36, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) led just one first-quarter TD drive, and Houston gave up an 80-yard punt-return TD to Johnnie Lee Higgins in the fourth quarter.

These teams have met just once before, with Houston winning 24-5 as a 1½-point road underdog in 2004.

The Bears are in ATS ruts of 2-5-1 overall, 0-5-1 after a SU win and 1-5 in season finales, but they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six December starts and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a non-cover. The Texans are on ATS upticks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on grass, 4-1 in December and 13-4 at home against teams with a winning road record.

The under for Chicago is on tears of 5-2 overall, 7-1 in roadies and 4-0 against losing teams, and the under for Houston is on a 5-0 spree, but the over for the Texans is on surges of 10-1 after a SU loss, 10-1 after an ATS setback and 19-7 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON

Carolina (11-4, 8-5-2 ATS) at New Orleans (8-7, 10-4-1 ATS)

The Panthers head to the Superdome to face the division rival Saints with a lot to play for, needing a victory to lock up the NFC South title and No. 2 playoff seed.

Carolina, which was on a 7-1 SU surge, gave the Giants all they could handle Sunday night before falling 34-28 in overtime as a 3½-point road pup. QB Jake Delhomme (11 of 19, 185 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was rather average, though he led a turnover-free effort, and RB DeAngelo Williams (24 carries, 108 yards) was again sterling, running for all four of the Panthers’ TDs. The Panthers finished with 343 yards, but they gave up 459 and let New York hold the ball for 39 minutes.

Carolina clinches the NFC South with a win here, but would slip to a No. 5 wild-card seed with a loss and a Falcons home win over the Rams.

New Orleans dumped winless Detroit 42-7 as a seven-point road chalk, improving to 5-0-1 ATS in the last six weeks (4-2 SU). QB Drew Brees (30 of 40, 351 yards, 2 TDs) had another big passing day, and the Saints added 181 rushing yards to finish with a whopping 532 total yards, while allowing just 255 to the lowly Lions.

Carolina is on a 3-1 SU and ATS roll in this NFC South rivalry, including a 30-7 rout in October as a three-point home chalk, and the Panthers are on a 7-0 ATS tear at the Superdome. In fact, the road team has cashed in 14 of the last 16 clashes between these two.

The Panthers are on pointspread hot streaks of 7-0 after a SU loss, 6-1 after an ATS setback, 8-2-1 as a favorite, 4-0 as a road chalk, 5-1 in Week 17 and 5-1 in December. The Saints are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 regular-season finales and 2-5-1 ATS in their last seven after a SU win, but along with their current run, they are on ATS rolls of 4-0 at home, 4-0-1 against NFC foes and 4-1 on field turf.

The under is 7-1 in the last eight contests between these squads. However, the over for Carolina is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 6-0 against the NFC, 4-1 against winning teams and 10-4 in December, and the over for New Orleans is on runs of 14-5-1 overall, 10-1-1 at home, 8-1 in December and 11-2 after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

St. Louis (2-13, 5-10 ATS) at Atlanta (10-5, 9-6 ATS)

The Falcons, who wrapped up a playoff spot with last week’s upset win at Minnesota, cap their surprisingly successful regular season with a contest at the Georgia Dome against the lowly Rams.

Atlanta dropped Minnesota 24-17 as a 3½-point road underdog for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS), as the SU winner is now 22-2 ATS in the Falcons’ last 24 games, including 14-1 ATS this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (13 of 24, 134 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t do much for an offense that finished with just 222 yards, but Atlanta also had no turnovers while its defense recovered four Vikings fumbles, turning one into a TD and another into a field goal.

An Atlanta win and a Carolina loss would give the Falcons the NFC South title and the second seed in the NFC playoffs.

St. Louis fell to San Francisco 17-16 for its ninth consecutive loss, though the Rams cashed as a 3½-point home pup to halt a two-game ATS skid. The Rams failed to take advantage of a 343-273 edge in total yards, a 4-1 turnover advantage and a nearly 2-1 edge in time of possession (38:38-21:22), blowing a 16-3 fourth-quarter lead by giving up two touchdowns in the final five minutes.

St. Louis is 4-2 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Atlanta, including a 28-16 home win last season as a three-point home chalk. The favorite has cashed in the last six meetings, and the home team is on a 5-0 ATS run.

The Falcons sport ATS streaks of 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in regular-season finales, 6-2 at home and 5-2 as a favorite. The Rams have cashed in six of their last eight Week 17 contests, but are otherwise on a slew of negative ATS runs, including 2-6 overall, 1-5 against the NFC, 1-5 in December, 2-10 getting more than 10 points, 2-6 on the road and 8-20 against winning teams.

The over for Atlanta is on rolls of 9-3 on field turf, 6-2 in December and 8-3 at home, and the over for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1 in Week 17 and 9-4-1 in December. And in this rivalry, the total has gone high in seven of the last eight contests at the Georgia Dome and 12 of the last 16 clashes overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER

Kansas City (2-13, 8-7 ATS) at Cincinnati (3-11-1, 6-9 ATS)

Two teams playing for position in the 2009 NFL draft square off when the Chiefs travel to Paul Brown Stadium to face the Bengals.

Cincinnati shut out Cleveland 14-0 as a three-point home ‘dog to win and cover for the second straight week, and the SU winner has cashed in nine of the Bengals’ last 10 games, with the exception being Cincy’s tie and cover against the Eagles in Week 11. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went 5 of 9 passing for an extremely meager 55 yards, but he had one TD toss, and RB Cedric Benson rolled up 171 yards on 38 carries. The Bengals finished with a 4-1 edge in turnovers, returning one for a touchdown, and allowed just 182 yards.

Kansas City went back and forth with Miami before losing 38-31 as a 3½-point home pup, halting a three-game ATS uptick as the Chiefs lost SU for the third straight week. Kansas City outgained Miami 492-403, but lost the turnover battle 4-2, as QB Tyler Thigpen threw three INTs, including one on the Chiefs’ final possession.

In four meetings this decade, these teams have each gone 2-2 SU and ATS, with the SU winner cashing in all four games. Last year, Kansas City posted a 27-20 home win catching one point.

The Bengals are on a 4-1 ATS run in December, but they are still on pointspread backslides of 1-7 as a favorite, 0-4 as a home chalk, 2-9 against the AFC, 3-9 after a spread-cover and 4-9 against losing teams. The Chiefs, despite their ugly SU record, are on ATS upticks of 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 4-1 in Week 17, 4-1 in December and 5-2 against AFC foes.

The under for Cincinnati is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 8-1 in December, 5-1 after a SU win and 7-2-1 at home, and the under for Kansas City is on runs of 6-1 in Week 17, 5-1 against losing teams and 4-1 on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Jacksonville (5-10, 4-11 ATS) at Baltimore (10-5, 11-4 ATS)

The Ravens can lock up the AFC’s final wild-card spot with a win over the Jaguars at M&T Bank Stadium.

Baltimore stunned Dallas 33-24 as a five-point road chalk in a Saturday game, improving to 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games. QB Joe Flacco (17 of 25, 149 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t have a big day, but his fumble was the lone turnover for Baltimore and led to the Cowboys’ only first-half TD. The Ravens got fourth-quarter TD runs of 77 yards from Willis McGahee and 82 yards from Le’Ron McClain to stem a Cowboys comeback. McClain (22 carries, 139 yards) and McGahee (8 carries, 108 yards) helped Baltimore pile up 265 rushing yards.

Jacksonville lost to Indianapolis 31-24 getting 5½ points at home last Thursday, dropping the Jags to 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. QB David Garrard (28 of 41, 329 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, and in an otherwise very even contest, Garrard was sacked on second-and-goal from the 7-yard line on the last play of the game.

The SU winner is now 24-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 26 games (14-1 ATS this year), and the winner has cashed in the Jaguars’ last 11 games.

These former division rivals haven’t met since 2005, when Jacksonville rolled 30-3 as a 6½-point home favorite. However, the underdog is 10-4-3 ATS in the last 17 series clashes.

The Ravens are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 8-2 overall, 6-0 against losing teams, 5-1 as a chalk and 6-2 at home. On the flip side, the Jaguars are on ATS freefalls of 0-5 against the AFC, 3-13 on grass, 1-4 as a ‘dog, 1-4 in December and 1-4 against winning teams.

The over for Baltimore is on tears of 7-2-1 overall, 7-0 against losing teams and 5-1 versus AFC foes, and the over for Jacksonville is on rolls of 10-3 in December, 9-3-1 with the Jags a road pup and 12-4-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 8-1 in Baltimore and 12-4-1 overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

 
Posted : December 28, 2008 12:03 am
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Tennessee (13-2, 12-3 ATS) at Indianapolis (11-4, 7-8 ATS)

The scorching-hot Colts, locked in as a wild card and the No. 5 playoff seed in the AFC, close the regular season at Lucas Oil Stadium against the Titans, who have already clinched the AFC’s top seed.

Indianapolis rallied past Jacksonville 31-24 as a 5½-point road favorite last Thursday for its eighth straight victory (4-4 ATS). QB Peyton Manning (29 of 34, 364 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a huge day in carrying most of the load, completing his first 17 passes, and the Colts, who trailed 14-0 and 24-14, clinched the victory when Dwight Freeney sacked David Garrard on second-and-goal from the 7-yard line in the waning seconds.

Tennessee bounced back from a loss at Houston to upend Pittsburgh 31-14 getting one point at home, earning home-field playoff advantage in the process and moving the SU winner to 14-1 ATS this season in Titans games. QB Kerry Collins (20 of 29, 215 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and the Tennessee D forced four turnovers – all committed by Ben Roethlisberger, on two INTs and two lost fumbles. The Titans converted the turnovers into 21 points.

Tennessee is on a 5-0 ATS tear (3-2 SU) in this AFC South rivalry, including a 31-21 home win giving four points two months ago. The Titans won last year at Indy 16-10 as a four-point chalk, but they needed that game to reach the playoffs, while the Colts pulled QB Peyton Manning by the second quarter. Neither team has anything to play for today.

The Colts have failed to cash in their last six regular-season finales and are on further ATS declines of 1-8-1 after a spread-cover, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-7 at home and 4-11 inside the division, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts as a home ‘dog. The Titans, meanwhile, are 6-1 SU and ATS on the road this season and carry additional ATS streaks of 7-1 as a road chalk, 14-3 in the AFC South, 10-3 after a SU win, 8-3 after a spread-cover and 9-4 in December.

The under for Indianapolis is on runs of 8-2 in Week 17 and 4-1 with the Colts a home pup, and the under for Tennessee is on streaks of 7-2 in roadies, 8-3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 with the Titans a road chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last seven meetings overall and six of the last seven in Indy.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Cleveland (4-11, 7-8 ATS) at Pittsburgh (11-4, 8-7 ATS)

The Steelers, already set as the AFC’s No. 2 seed, conclude the regular season with a meaningless contest against the division rival Browns at Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh saw a five-game SU and four-game ATS surge come to an end in last week’s 31-14 loss at Tennessee as a one-point road chalk, losing a shot at home-field advantage in the process. QB Ben Roethlisberger (25 of 39, 329 yards, 2 TDs) had a decent statistical day entirely offset by committing all four Steelers turnovers – two fumbles and two INTs, with one INIT returned 83 yards for a score in the final minute. Roethlisberger’s miscues led to 21 Titans points.

Cleveland ran its losing streak to five in a row (1-4 ATS) with last week’s 14-0 home loss to Cincinnati as a three-point favorite, giving the SU winner an 11-1-1 ATS mark in the Browns’ last 13 contests. Cleveland gaining just 182 total yards in the defeat, lost the turnover battle 4-1, and the defense allowed Bengals RB Cedric Benson to run for a career-high 171 yards on 38 carries.

Pittsburgh is on a 10-game winning streak against the Browns, going 7-2-1 ATS, all from the favorite’s role. However, Cleveland has cashed in the last two meetings, including a 10-6 loss as a six-point home underdog back in Week 2.

The Steelers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 December games, but they are also 1-5 ATS in their last six as a double-digit chalk. The Browns have cashed in five of their last six season-finales and are on a 14-5-1 ATS run against winning teams, but they are on negative pointspread runs of 2-5 against the AFC, 1-4 in December and 2-5 after a SU loss.

The over for Pittsburgh is on a bevy of streaks, including 11-3 against the AFC, 7-2 in Week 17, 37-15-2 at home and 13-6-1 inside the division, and in this rivalry, the over is on stretches of 5-1-1 overall and 5-0-1 in Pittsburgh. But the under for Cleveland is on streaks of 14-6-1 overall, 5-0-1 in Week 17 and 8-1-1 in December.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Miami (10-5, 7-8 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (9-6, 7-8 ATS)

The Dolphins, who can win the AFC East title with a victory or fall out of the playoffs with a loss, travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Jets, who need a win and some help to reach the postseason.

Miami held off a game Kansas City squad 38-31 as a 3½-point road favorite for its fourth consecutive victory (2-2 ATS). In a game that went back-and-forth all day, QB Chad Pennington (26 of 34, 235 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) led a 13-play, 85-yard TD drive to chew up more than half the fourth quarter, hitting Anthony Fasano with a 14-yard TD pass for the only score of the final frame. The Dolphins also won the turnover battle 4-2, picking off Tyler Thigpen on the Chiefs’ final possession.

New York continued its late-season swoon, losing at Seattle 13-3 as a 3½-point chalk and falling to 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in its last four starts. QB Brett Favre (18 of 31, 187 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) was woefully ineffective in cold, snowy weather, with the Jets’ only score coming on a first-quarter field goal. The New York defense allowed RB Maurice Morris to rush for 116 yards on 29 carries in the snow.

While Miami wins the AFC East with a victory today, the Jets need a win and a Patriots loss at Buffalo to claim the division title.

New York has dominated this divisional rivalry, going 9-0-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in the last 10 clashes, including a 20-14 road win giving three points to open the 2008 campaign. The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests, but the Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings at the Meadowlands.

The Dolphins are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and are 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 AFC East contests, but they are on ATS surges of 5-1 on the highway, 4-0 as a road ‘dog and 6-2 against winning teams. The Jets are on ATS upticks of 4-1 against winning teams and 9-3 in Week 17, but are otherwise on pointspread slides of 0-4 in December, 0-4 as a favorite, 1-5 after a SU loss and 1-4 after an ATS setback.

The under for Miami is on stretches of 7-2 overall and 11-3 after a SU win, and the under is 6-1 in New York’s last seven December games, but the over for the Jets is on runs of 6-2-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0-1 against winning teams and 5-0-1 against the AFC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS

New England (10-5, 8-7 ATS) at Buffalo (7-8 SU and ATS)

The Patriots, needing a victory and some help to get into the postseason, travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take on the Bills.

New England razed Arizona 47-7 as a nine-point home chalk for its third straight win (2-1 ATS) and second straight double-digit blowout. QB Matt Cassel (20 of 36, 345 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had a huge day in the snow, leading a turnover-free offense that finished with a whopping 514 total yards, while the Pats defense yielded just 186 yards and forced two turnovers.

The Patriots clinch the AFC East with a victory and a Miami loss to the Jets, or could earn a wild-card berth with a victory and a Baltimore loss at home to Jacksonville.

Buffalo upended Denver 30-23 catching six points on the road to end a three-game SU skid and cash for the second straight week. The Bills rallied from 13-0 second-quarter deficit, and despite giving up an eye-popping 532 total yards – including 359 through the air – while gaining barely half that at 275, Buffalo got the win by outscoring the Broncos 14-3 in the final quarter. The Bills won the turnover battle 2-0, including a key fourth-quarter INT.

New England is on a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS run in this rivalry, including four straight wins and covers after a 20-10 home victory giving 3½ points earlier this season. The Pats are also on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in Buffalo (including last year’s 56-10 beatdown as a 16-point chalk), and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.

The Patriots are on ATS downfalls of 2-8 after a spread-cover, 2-7 against losing teams and 4-11 after a SU win, but they also sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 in Week 17, 16-5 as a road chalk, 35-16-1 overall on the highway and 35-16-1 in AFC East play. The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a home ‘dog, but they are on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 1-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 1-4 in division play and 2-7 against winning teams.

The over for New England is on rolls of 6-0 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-0 as a road favorite and 7-3 overall on the highway, and the over for Buffalo is on runs of 15-6 in December, 7-3-1 at home and 8-2-1 on turf. However, in this rivalry, the total has gone low in 16 of the last 21 contests, and the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings at Ralph Wilson.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND

Seattle (4-11, 7-7-1 ATS) at Arizona (8-7 SU and ATS)

The Cardinals, who have already clinched the NFC West but are coming off consecutive blowout losses, hope to regain some momentum at University of Phoenix Stadium, where they’ll face the Seahawks in Seattle’s last game under retiring coach Mike Holmgren.

One week after an ugly 35-14 home loss to Minnesota, Arizona went to snowy New England last week and got plastered 47-7 as an eight-point underdog, falling to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. QB Kurt Warner was an absolutely dismal 6 of 18 for 30 yards (0 TDs, 0 INTs) before getting yanked in the third quarter, and his backup wasn’t much better as Matt Leinart was 6 of 14 for 138 yards and a TD, with one INT and a lost fumble. The Cards finished with just 186 total yards while allowing 514, and they lost the time-of-possession battle by more than 17 minutes (38:35-21:25).

Seattle dealt a big blow to the Jets’ playoff hopes last Sunday, winning 13-3 as a 3½-point home pup for its second straight win and third straight cover. QB Seneca Wallace (18 of 25, 175 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady in the snow, and RB Maurice Morris (29 carries, 116 yards) also had a solid day. The Seahawks defense gave up only a first-quarter field goal and picked off a pair of Brett Favre passes.

Arizona is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four contests with Seattle, including a 26-20 road win giving three points last month. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the favorite is on a 5-2 ATS run.

Along with their current 1-4 ATS skid, the Cardinals are on pointspread plunges of 2-7 giving 3½-10 points and 2-5 in December, but they still carry positive ATS trends of 5-0 in season finales, 5-1 in division play and 13-6 after a SU loss. The Seahawks are on ATS dips of 1-6 after a SU win and 3-7 after a spread-cover, but they sport spread-covering streaks of 8-2 inside the division, 8-2 in December and 4-1 on the highway.

The over for Arizona is on a plethora of hot streaks, including 41-20 overall, 8-1 at home, 4-1 in the NFC West and 16-5 in December, and the over for Seattle is on stretches of 4-1-1 in division games, 26-11 on grass and 21-10 with the Seahawks a road pup. Furthermore, in this rivalry, the over has hit in four straight games at Arizona and is 7-2 in the last nine meetings overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Washington (8-7, 6-8-1 ATS) at San Francisco (6-9, 7-8 ATS)

Two teams playing out the string get together when the Redskins make the cross-country trek to Monster Park to face the 49ers.

San Francisco edged St. Louis 17-16, and though the Niners failed to cover as a 3½-point road favorite, they are still 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games. The 49ers had a dismal first three quarters, falling behind 16-3, and QB Shaun Hill (18 of 34, 216 yards, 2 TDs) threw three INTs as San Fran lost the turnover battle 4-1 and the time-of-possession battle by more than 17 minutes. However, Hill rebounded with two fourth-quarter TD passes in the final five minutes to give the Niners the win.

Washington got a too-little, too-late 10-3 victory over Philadelphia as a 4½-point home ‘dog, snapping a season-killing three-game SU and ATS slide, and the SU winner is now 20-1-1 ATS in the Redskins’ last 22 games (13-1-1 ATS this season). In a defensive struggle, Washington gained just 249 total yards, while allowing 275, but the Redskins won the turnover battle 1-0 and allowed only a third-quarter field goal.

These teams last met in 2005, with Washington steamrolling to a 52-17 victory as a 13½-point home favorite. A year earlier, Washington won 26-16 at San Francisco giving seven points.

The 49ers are on ATS surges of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 on grass. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December starts, but the pointspread trends drop off from there for Washington, including 1-5-1 overall, 0-4-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 3-12-2 against losing teams.

The under for San Francisco is on runs of 4-0 overall and 4-0 in December, but the over is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five at home and is on a 9-2 run with the Niners a home chalk. The under for Washington is on tears of 16-5-1 overall, 5-0 with the Redskins getting points, 4-0 in December, 4-0-1 on the road and 7-3 in regular-season finales.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO

Denver (8-7, 4-10-1 ATS) at San Diego (7-8, 6-8-1 ATS)

The top two teams in a rotten division square off at Qualcomm Stadium, where the surging Chargers will face the freefalling Broncos, with the winner claiming the AFC West crown.

San Diego knocked off Tampa Bay 41-24 as a 3½-point road underdog and has now followed a three-game SU skid with three consecutive victories (2-1 ATS). QB Philip Rivers (21 of 31, 287 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (21 carries, 90 yards) led a nearly flawless Chargers offense, and the defense helped San Diego forge a 3-0 turnover edge. Rookie CB Antoine Cason put the game away by returning an INT 59 yards for a TD late in the fourth quarter.

Denver, looking to avoid becoming the first team to ever blow a three-game division lead with three games to play, tumbled to Buffalo 30-23 for its second consecutive loss and third straight ATS setback. The Broncos outgained the Bills 532-275, getting 359 passing yards from QB Jay Cutler. But Cutler (two rushing TDs) had no TD passes, Denver lost the turnover battle 2-0, and Buffalo outscored the Broncos 14-3 in the fourth quarter.

San Diego is on a 4-0-1 ATS run (4-1 SU) in this rivalry, getting the push in an extremely controversial 39-38 loss at Denver back in Week 2. Prior to that, the Chargers had posted three straight blowout wins against the Broncos by a combined score of 112-26. This series has had several pushes recently, with the favorite on a 5-2-4 ATS run.

The Chargers boast several positive pointspread streaks, including 7-1 in December, 20-7-4 inside the AFC West, 11-4 after a SU win, 10-4 at home and 7-3-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the Broncos are on numerous ATS nosedives, including 10-28-1 overall, 1-5 in December, 3-13-1 in division play, 3-13-1 against losing teams and 6-13 on the highway.

The under for San Diego is on runs of 7-3-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home and 6-1-1 against the AFC, and the under is 7-3-1 in the Broncos’ last 11 starts, as well. But the over for Denver is on stretches of 13-3-2 after a SU loss, 9-3 in the AFC West, 9-3-2 a ‘dog and 9-4-1 on the road. Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO

 
Posted : December 28, 2008 12:03 am
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Motivation and consolation: Betting Week 17 of the NFL season
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Pity the oddsmakers in this the final week of the NFL regular season.

Teams with nothing to play for.
Teams with everything to play for.
Teams with nothing to play playing against teams with everything to play for.
Teams led by coaches with one foot on a banana peel.
Teams with players playing for 2009 contracts.
Teams with playoff spots on the line.
Teams with players who have Tuesday morning tee times.

The final week of the NFL season and it’s like no other.

A quick check of betjamaica.com and you’ll find five games with double-digit lines with the Rams front and center, deservedly getting 14 at Atlanta. Those old 1972 Tampa Bay Buccaneers who went 0-14 have waited 36 years for a team to join them in the winless club and the Lions (getting 10 points ) will accommodate them tomorrow in Green Bay.

Tampa Bay needs a victory to have a chance at a sniff of the playoffs and right on cue Oakland limps into town. The Raiders get 13 points.

And how would you like to be Romeo Crennel? Sunday is likely to be his final day as Browns head coach and he has to trot out fourth-string QB Bruce Gradkowski to lead a team that hasn’t scored an offensive touchdown in the last 314 minutes and 47 seconds of play. Nice. Cleveland gets 10 points at Pittsburgh in a game that has meaning only to friends and family.

Jacksonville, recently named the winner of the Bud Selig Underachievers of the Year Award, has its cover load lightened by 12.5 points when it takes on the Ravens in Baltimore.

So what does it all mean?

The guys who deal with NFL betting for a living don’t always agree on everything, but there is a consensus that on the final week it’s a pretty good idea to stay away from teams that have nothing to play for.

“I will only get involved in teams that are playing for a playoff spot or I know for certain that they have not given up on the season,” says Peter Childs, oddsmaker at belmont.com. “Games like the Broncos/Chargers and Jets/Dolphins.”

Childs has particular interest in the San Diego-Denver winner-take-all finale.

“I really like the Chargers blowing out the Broncos,” says Childs. “The Broncos are a bad team. To lose (last week) to Buffalo, which had lost seven of its last eight, is just not acceptable. Unlike the Chargers, I think the Broncos would just be happy to make the playoffs. But the Chargers are playing well and feel they can compete for a Super Bowl spot.”

Other oddsmakers seem to agree with Childs and have made San Diego a healthy 9-point favorite (The total is 50.5 points, which is not seen too often in the NFL.).

Peter Korner of the Las Vegas Club, who sets lines for many of the Vegas casinos, concedes that the final week of the season is pretty much a guessing game for linemakers as well as bettors.

“Let’s be honest,” says Korner, “I wouldn’t have 100 percent confidence in any game this weekend that doesn't have true meaning. We still have to wait for the Jets fate but the Denver/San Diego game looks like the one true game out there.

“Our thinking is this: When a playoff team says it’s going to rest starters, it means more to the offense. Defensive players usually play most of the game. You don't hear big announcements that defensive linemen may be sitting, but you already heard that Peyton Manning is out. Case in point, the Giants/Minnesota game. The Giants will probably play their defense straight up while their offensive stars rest.

“With that in mind, we lowered our expectations on what this total should be. On a regular week? Probably 45 or 46. But this week, 42. The spread is good on Minnesota because we know the public will be laying money on Minnesota, the team that needs it.

“It's a tough week every year to judge,” Korner says. “Sometimes just have to roll the dice and hope for the best.”

Handicapper Bryan Leonard, who knows more than a thing or two about sports wagering, is succinct in his advice to bettors on the final weekend of the regular season:

“Don’t bet any game unless you know how long the starters are playing. Read, read and read some more.”

--

The web site playoffstatus.com has some interesting pro football analysis. It claims that the Ravens have a 92 percent chance of winning the final AFC wild card spot, and that the odds of teams winning the AFC East are:

Dolphins – 48 percent
Patriots – 33 percent
Jets – 19 percent

The Chargers have a 58 percent chance of beating the Broncos and winning the West.

In the NFC, it gives the Falcons a 61 percent shot of winning a wild card spot, with the Buccaneers basically even money at 49 percent. Dallas is given a 3 percent chance at winning the 5th seed wild card, but 40 percent at earning the 6th seed.

 
Posted : December 28, 2008 8:06 am
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Cardinals will play starters against Seahawks
By ASSOCIATED PRESS

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) -In a perfect world, playoff-bound Arizona would rest its starters in the meaningless regular-season finale against Seattle on Sunday.

In the Cardinals' world, the starters will play as the NFC West champions try to pull out of a late-season tailspin.

Arizona is groping for answers after dropping four of its last five games, including blowouts against Minnesota and New England in the two weeks after it clinched its first division title in 33 seasons.

The lowly Seahawks (4-11) may be just what the Cardinals need to find themselves.

''I think the most important thing that we have to do is play well,'' coach Ken Whisenhunt said after a chilly morning practice on Friday. ''So that's what we're looking to do.''

Whisenhunt is the first Arizona coach to ponder a choice between resting his players for the playoffs or trying to keep them sharp and risk injury. The only other time the Arizona Cardinals made the playoffs, in 1998, they slipped in as a wild-card entry on the season's final Sunday.

The Cardinals (8-7) are locked into the fourth seed in the NFC playoffs. They'll play host to their first postseason game since 1947, when they nested in Chicago, but the date and opponent aren't known.

The game will be either Jan. 3 or 4, and Atlanta, Dallas and Carolina are the possible opponents.

At the moment, Whisenhunt is more concerned about his team than its potential playoff opponent. That's why Sunday's game against the Seahawks has taken on added significance.

''I think what we've learned from this team is that we need to stay sharp and play well,'' Whisenhunt said. ''So that's what our focus is this week, because we haven't played well the last two weeks because our focus hasn't been where it's needed to be. So in order to get ready for the playoffs, it's important that we play better.''

Still, Whisenhunt doesn't plan to push it with players nursing injuries.

The most notable is receiver Anquan Boldin, who missed the New England game with a shoulder injury and has sat out the last three days of practice. He's listed as questionable.

Boldin has 11 touchdown catches, tied with Randy Moss for most among NFL receivers, but he hasn't scored in his last three games.

Whisenhunt said he'd like for Boldin to play on Sunday, even if it's only briefly.

''We'll see Sunday,'' Whisenhunt said. ''He's gotten a lot better. We'll work him out and see.''

Running back J.J. Arrington (knee) and safety Adrian Wilson (toe) are also questionable.

Defensive end Travis LaBoy (ankle) and safety Matt Ware (calf) are doubtful.

A victory on Sunday would give the Cardinals a 9-7 record for only the second time since they moved to Arizona in 1998. They would also finish 6-0 against the NFC West, their first perfect division record.

But those encouraging numbers tell only part of the story.

The Cardinals are 3-7 outside the woeful NFC West, with their last non-division victory coming on Oct. 12 against Dallas, a possible playoff foe.

The Cardinals have been outscored 405-393 on the season. The only other teams that have conceded more than 400 points are Detroit (0-15), Kansas City (2-13) and St. Louis (2-13).

And Arizona is averaging 71.1 rushing yards per game, last in the NFL.

Whisenhunt said he was ''embarrassed'' by his team's rushing production ''because we feel like we're a better team than that.''

With Kurt Warner throwing to fellow Pro Bowl starters Larry Fitzgerald and Boldin, the Cardinals will live or die in the air. But Whisenhunt would like to see the Cardinals' running game gain a little traction heading into the postseason.

''It'd be nice to get into a game where we could have a chance to run it in the fourth quarter, or in the second half, where we're not having to play from behind like we have the last two weeks, even though we weren't making much ground doing that,'' Whisenhunt said. ''That's why I think it's important that we play better this week.''

 
Posted : December 28, 2008 8:09 am
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