San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills
Oddsmakers currently have the Bills listed as 6½-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total is sitting at 43½.
The 49ers lost to Dallas 35-22 as a 9.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (45.5).
Shaun Hill threw for 303 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for San Francisco and Isaac Bruce caught eight passes for 125 yards with a TD.
The Bills defeated Kansas City 54-31 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Trent Edwards passed for 273 yards with a pair of touchdown passes and two TD runs for Buffalo, while Marshawn Lynch rushed for 79 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries in the win.
Team records:
San Francisco: 3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS
Buffalo: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS
San Francisco most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 3-7
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing outside the division are 3-7
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games at home
Buffalo is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games at home
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
San Francisco home to NY Jets, Sunday, December 7
Buffalo home to Miami, Sunday, December 7
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Oddsmakers currently have the Ravens listed as 7-point favorites versus the Bengals, while the game's total is sitting at 36.
The Ravens defeated Philadelphia 36-7 as a 1.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (39.5).
Joe Flacco passed for 183 yards with a pair of touchdowns for Baltimore and Le'Ron McClain rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.
The Bengals fell 27-10 to the Steelers in Week 12, as 12-point road underdogs. The combined 37 points made it OVER the posted total of 35.
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 20-of-37 for 168 yards and a touchdown in the loss.
Team records:
Baltimore: 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS
Cincinnati: 1-9-1 SU, 4-7 ATS
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 4-6
Cincinnati most recently:
When playing in November are 6-3-1
When playing on turf are 2-7-1
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing within the division are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home
Next up:
Baltimore home to Washington, Sunday, December 7
Cincinnati at Indianapolis, Sunday, December 7
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns
Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 5½-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
The Colts defeated San Diego 23-20 as a 2.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (49).
Peyton Manning passed for 255 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Indianapolis, while Anthony Gonzalez caught six passes for 95 yards and a TD.
The Browns lost to Houston 16-6 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (50.5).
Brady Quinn threw for 94 yards with a pair of interceptions for Cleveland and Jamal Lewis rushed for 58 yards on 10 carries.
Current streak:
Indianapolis has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Indianapolis: 7-4 SU, 4-7 ATS
Cleveland: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS
Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 7-3
Cleveland most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 4-6
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Indianapolis is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland's last 17 games
Cleveland is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Cleveland is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
Next up:
Indianapolis home to Cincinnati, Sunday, December 7
Cleveland at Tennessee, Sunday, December 7
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Panthers, while the game's total is sitting at 42½.
The Panthers lost to Atlanta 45-28 as a 2.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42).
Jake Delhomme passed for 295 yards with a touchdown pass and a TD run for Carolina and DeAngelo Williams rushed for 101 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.
Aaron Rodgers went 23-of-41 for 248 yards with two TD tosses and three interceptions for Green Bay in its 51-29 loss to New Orleans on Monday night.
New Orleans cashed as 2.5-point home favorites as the teams played over the 53.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Team records:
Carolina: 8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
Green Bay: 5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
Carolina most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 7-3
Green Bay most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games when playing Green Bay
Carolina is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 10 games at home
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Green Bay is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
Next up:
Carolina home to Tampa Bay, Monday, December 8
Green Bay home to Houston, Sunday, December 7
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Oddsmakers currently have the Buccaneers listed as 4-point favorites versus the Saints, while the game's total is sitting at 47.
Drew Brees was 20-of-26 for 323 yards with four touchdowns, as the Saints ripped the Packers 51-29 on Monday night.
New Orleans cashed as 2.5-point home favorites as the teams played over the 53.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
The Buccaneers defeated Detroit 38-20 as an 8-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42).
Jeff Garcia passed for 165 yards with two touchdowns for Tampa Bay and Warrick Dunn rushed for 90 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in the win.
Current streak:
New Orleans has won 2 straight games.
Tampa Bay has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
New Orleans: 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS
Tampa Bay: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 4-6
Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
Next up:
New Orleans home to Atlanta, Sunday, December 7
Tampa Bay at Carolina, Monday, December 8
New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as 4-point favorites versus the Redskins, while the game's total is sitting at 41½.
The Giants defeated Arizona 37-29 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48.5).
Eli Manning passed for 240 yards with three touchdown passes for New York and Derrick Ward rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries in the win.
The Redskins defeated Seattle 20-17 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (40).
Clinton Portis rushed for 143 yards on 29 carries for Washington, while Jason Campbell passed for 206 yards with a touchdown in the win.
Current streak:
New York has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS
Washington: 7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 9-1
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 7-3
Washington most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games on the road
NY Giants are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Next up:
NY Giants home to Philadelphia, Sunday, December 7
Washington at Baltimore, Sunday, December 7
Miami Dolphins vs. St. Louis Rams
Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Dolphins lost to New England 48-28 as a 1-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Chad Pennington threw for 341 yards with three touchdowns and an interception and he also ran in for a score for Miami in the loss.
The Rams lost to Chicago 27-3 as a 7.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (44).
Trent Green threw for 219 yards with four interceptions for St. Louis, while Torry Holt caught four passes for 84 yards.
Current streak:
St. Louis has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS
St. Louis: 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 5-5
St. Louis most recently:
When playing in November are 3-7
When playing on turf are 1-9
After being outgained are 1-9
When playing outside the division are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Miami
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Next up:
Miami at Buffalo, Sunday, December 7
St. Louis at Arizona, Sunday, December 7
Atlanta Falcons vs. San Diego Chargers
Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 5-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game's total is sitting at 49.
The Falcons defeated Carolina 45-28 as a 2.5-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42).
Michael Turner rushed for 117 yards and four touchdowns on 24 carries for Atlanta, while Matt Ryan completed 17-of-27 passes for 259 yards in the win.
The Chargers lost to Indianapolis 23-20 as a 2.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (49).
Philip Rivers threw for 288 yards with two touchdowns for San Diego and LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 84 yards on 21 carries.
Current streak:
San Diego has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS
San Diego: 4-7 SU, 4-6-1 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4
San Diego most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games
San Diego is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
San Diego is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Next up:
Atlanta at New Orleans, Sunday, December 7
San Diego home to Oakland, Thursday, December 4
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
Oddsmakers currently have the Jets listed as 8-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 48.
The Broncos lost to Oakland 31-10 as an 8.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Jay Cutler passed for 204 yards with an interception for Denver, while Peyton Hillis rushed for 74 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries.
The Jets defeated Tennessee 34-13 as a 5.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (40.5).
Brett Favre passed for 224 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for the Jets, while Leon Washington rushed for 82 yards and a pair of touchdowns on eight carries in the win.
Current streak:
New York has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
Denver: 6-5 SU, 3-7-1 ATS
New York: 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS
Denver most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 5-5
New York most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games on the road
Denver is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
Next up:
Denver home to Kansas City, Sunday, December 7
NY Jets at San Francisco, Sunday, December 7
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 1-point favorites versus the Steelers, while the game's total is sitting at 40.
Ben Roethlisberger threw for 243 yards as the Steelers ran over the struggling Bengals 27-10 in Week 12. The Steelers covered the 12-point spread at home, and the 37 points made it OVER the posted total of 35.
Roethlisberger finished 17-of-30 with a touchdown, while rushing for 13 yards and a TD in the win.
The Patriots defeated Miami 48-28 as a 1-point favorite last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Matt Cassel passed for 415 yards with three touchdown passes and a TD run for New England, while Randy Moss caught eight passes for 125 yards with three touchdowns in the win.
Current streak:
Pittsburgh has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Pittsburgh: 8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS
New England: 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 5-5
New England most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing New England
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 15 games
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
New England is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Next up:
Pittsburgh home to Dallas, Sunday, December 7
New England at Seattle, Sunday, December 7
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
Oddsmakers currently have the Raiders listed as 3-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 41½.
The Chiefs lost to Buffalo 54-31 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Tyler Thigpen threw for 240 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for Kansas City and Tony Gonzalez caught 10 passes for 113 yards and a TD.
The Raiders defeated Denver 31-10 as an 8.5-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42.5).
JaMarcus Russell completed 10-of-11 passes for 152 yards with a touchdown, while Darren McFadden rushed for 38 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 10 carries in the win.
Current streak:
Kansas City has lost 7 straight games.
Team records:
Kansas City: 1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS
Oakland: 3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS
Kansas City most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on grass are 1-9
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 4-6
Oakland most recently:
When playing in November are 2-8
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing within the division are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Kansas City at Denver, Sunday, December 7
Oakland at San Diego, Thursday, December 4
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Oddsmakers currently have the Vikings listed as 3-point favorites versus the Bears, while the game's total is sitting at 41½.
The Bears defeated St. Louis 27-3 as a 7.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (44).
Matt Forte rushed for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20 carries for Chicago and Kyle Orton passed for 139 yards with a touchdown in the win.
The Vikings defeated Jacksonville 30-12 as a 2.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).
Adrian Peterson rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries for Minnesota, while Gus Frerotte threw for 120 yards with an interception in the win.
Team records:
Chicago: 6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
Minnesota: 6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS
Chicago most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the division are 5-5
Minnesota most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on turf are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Next up:
Chicago home to Jacksonville, Sunday, December 7
Minnesota at Detroit, Sunday, December 7
DENVER (6 - 5) at NY JETS (8 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 8) at BUFFALO (6 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NEW ORLEANS (5 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 3)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA (8 - 3) at GREEN BAY (5 - 5)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS (10 - 1) at WASHINGTON (7 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI (6 - 5) at ST LOUIS (2 - 9)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BALTIMORE (7 - 4) at CINCINNATI (1 - 9 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 4) at CLEVELAND (4 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
ATLANTA (7 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
PITTSBURGH (8 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (7 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 71-49 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY (1 - 10) at OAKLAND (3 - 8)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 26-51 ATS (-30.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 23-49 ATS (-30.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO (6 - 5) at MINNESOTA (6 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Denver at NY Jets
Denver: 6-0 Over off home loss
NY Jets: 6-0 ATS off BB SU underdog wins
San Francisco at Buffalo
San Francisco: 7-16 ATS as an underdog
Buffalo: 17-5 ATS vs. NFC West
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
New Orleans:
Tampa Bay: 5-1 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Carolina at Green Bay
Carolina: 15-5 ATS off road division loss
Green Bay:
NY Giants at Washington
NY Giants: 4-1 ATS vs. Washington
Washington: 6-0 Under L6 games
Miami at St. Louis
Miami: 7-2 Over after after allowing 30+ points
St. Louis: 0-6 ATS after scoring 6 points or less
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS as road favorite
Cincinnati: 1-7 ATS vs. conference
Indianapolis at Cleveland
Indianapolis: 5-0 ATS vs. AFC North
Cleveland: 1-8 ATS off DD loss as favorite
Atlanta at San Diego
Atlanta: 3-12 ATS off SU win as dog
San Diego: 8-2 Over vs. NFC
Pittsburgh at New England
Pittsburgh: 3-11 ATS off SU win
New England: 4-0 Over off division game
Kansas City at Oakland
Kansas City: 20-7 ATS Away off DD loss
Oakland: 0-6 ATS as home favorite
Chicago at Minnesota
Chicago: 6-0 Under in road games
Minnesota: 3-13 ATS at home after game with +3 TO margin
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
CAROLINA vs. GREEN BAY
Carolina is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Carolina is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CLEVELAND
Indianapolis is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
MIAMI vs. ST. LOUIS
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
St. Louis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Washington
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
SAN FRANCISCO vs. BUFFALO
San Francisco is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
ATLANTA vs. SAN DIEGO
Atlanta is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
DENVER vs. NY JETS
Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing Denver
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Denver
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New England
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
New England is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home
New England is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games at home
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
Chicago is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago
Minnesota is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Chicago
Tips and Trends
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Giants (-4, O/U 41.5): New York has won its last six games, with the last five coming against teams battling for the playoffs. This game will be no different, as the Redskins remain in the hunt for one of the NFC's wild-card spots. “Well, we have known that we have had a tough schedule,” Giants QB Eli Manning said. “We knew that five weeks ago - that it was going to be a tough road ahead of us and we were going to be playing a lot of good teams. And it is going to continue.”
Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record.
Giants are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Key Injuries - RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) is questionable.
WR Plaxico Burress (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Redskins: It will be an emotional day in Washington, as safety Sean Taylor will be inducted into the Ring of Fame in a pregame ceremony. Taylor was shot during a robbery at his home in Florida nearly a year ago and died the very next day. “I think this is a great organization and I think Sean did a lot for this organization and I think Mr. Snyder (owner Dan Snyder) is doing the right thing in honoring Sean for everything that Sean brought to this organization and the effect that he has had around the world,” said Redskins running back Clinton Portis.
Redskins are 1-4 SU & ATS in the last 5 meetings.
The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Washington's last 7 games overall.
Key Injuries - DE Jason Taylor (calf) is day-to-day.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (Side Play of the Day)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Steelers: Defense could very well be the difference in this game, and Pittsburgh would seem to have a big advantage there. The Steelers have not allowed an opponent to total over 300 yards this season and held the Bengals to just 208 yards and 11 first downs in a 27-10 victory last Thursday. “It is a huge challenge,” Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said of the Pittsburgh D. “Obviously, there aren’t a lot of weaknesses. There really aren’t any.”
Steelers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Key Injuries - RB Willie Parker (knee) is questionable.
CB Deshea Townsend (hamstring) is day-to-day.
CB Bryant McFadden (forearm) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
Patriots (-1, O/U 39.5): New England QB Matt Cassel has silenced his critics over the last couple weeks after becoming the fifth player in NFL history to throw for 400 yards in consecutive games. Cassel has completed 30 passes and thrown three touchdowns in each of those games as well, and he has certainly gotten the attention of Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin. “I think that it is obvious that they have a lot of confidence with what this young man is doing for them,” Mike Tomlin said. “I think that his numbers speak for themselves; he has a 90-plus passer rating. He is showing that he is a player in this league at that position.”
Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The UNDER is 8-2-2 in New England's last 12 home games.
Key Injuries - RB LaMont Jordan (calf) is questionable.
LB Adalius Thomas (forearm) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Bears: Chicago QB Kyle Orton has not thrown an interception in his last 186 pass attempts and will be facing a secondary that has just eight interceptions in 11 games. Orton lit up the Vikings in the last meeting, completing 21-of-32 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns, and he has not thrown for more than 139 in three starts since then. Defensively, the Bears need to focus on limiting Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson, who has averaged 141 yards in three games against them.
Bears are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The OVER is 26-11-1 in Chicago's last 38 games vs. NFC.
Key Injuries - S Mike Brown (leg) is day-to-day.
TE Desmond Clark (knee) is day-to-day.
CB Nathan Vashar (thumb) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Vikings (-3, O/U 42): Minnesota has focused more on the running game since the last meeting with the Bears, and rightfully so. The Vikings simply couldn't keep up with Chicago through the air, as QB Gus Frerotte attempted 40 passes and threw four interceptions. They have cut down Frerotte's passing attempts to 21.5 over the last four games while running the ball an average of 34 times. That has resulted in a 3-1 mark and given the team hope of winning the division. “Right now we’re in a position, and so are the Bears, to kind of control where we want to go,” said Vikings defensive end Jared Allen.
Vikings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Key Injuries - TE Garrett Mills (ankle) is day-to-day.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23
Broncos (6-5) @ Jets (8-3)-- Gang Green won last five games, covering last four- they scored 47-34-34 points in last three games, running ball for average of 179.3 ypg. Jets are 4-3 as favorite this year- they won last four home games by 21-12-4-44 points. Broncos won last road games, are 3-1 vs spread as underdog- they're -12 in turnovers in last eight tilts. AFC East home faves are 6-8 vs spread in non-division tilts. AFC West road dogs are 7-6. Over is 7-1-1 in Jets' last nine games, 2-5 in Denver's last seven. Broncos allowed 139+ rushing yds in six of last eight games.
49ers (3-8) @ Bills (6-5)-- Buffalo snapped 4-game skid by crushing KC in Arrowhead last week; they're 3-2 at home (2-3 as home favorite) with home wins by 24-1-9 points- they lost last two at home. 49ers are 1-7 in last eight games, with only win vs woeful Rams- they're 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 14-12-5-13 pts. AFC East home favorites are 6-8 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 4-9. Over is 6-1 in 49ers' last seven games. 49ers are 1-8 when they allow more than 16 points. Bills scored 27-54 points in last two games (seven TDs on last 25 drives).
Saints (6-5) @ Buccaneers (8-3)-- Home teams are 6-1 vs spread in NFC South games this season; Bucs lost 24-20 at Superdome in season opener (+3) as Brees was 23-32/337 passing (10.2 yds/attempt). Bucs won last three games, are 5-0 at home, winning by 15-9-24-10-6 points. Four of their five home games stayed under total. Saints won three of last four, but are travelling on short week after Monday night win- they're 2-4 on road, winning on neutral field in London and at 1-10 Kansas City. Bucs covered just three of last 10 in series, have nine sacks in last two games.
Panthers (8-3) @ Packers (5-6)-- Green Bay lost three of four since bye, getting riddled for 416 yards, 51 points on Bourbon Street Monday nite. Carolina had 4-game win streak snapped in Atlanta last week, giving up 45 points. 9.3 ypa; they are 2-3 on road, 1-3 vs spread as dog. Packers scored 27-37-29 points in last three games, still lost two of three- they're 3-1 as favorite, but are favored for just second time in last seven games. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Pack games. Carolina ran ball for 163.2 ypg over its last five games. NFC South road dogs are 6-3 against the spread.
Giants (10-1) @ Redskins (7-4)-- Burress was declared out for this game Friday, rematch of 16-7 Giants win in season opener, when Skins were held to 11 first downs, 209 total yards. Big Blue won, covered six games in row- they're 4-1 on road, with wins by 28-7-5-8 points. Redskins lost three of last four road games, scoring total of 47 points (five TDs on 45 drives). Under is 6-0-1 in Washington's last seven games. Skins are 2-2 as a dog this year. Giants are +11 in turnovers their last six games- they scored 35-36-30-37 points in last four games (three of four went over).
Dolphins (6-5) @ Rams (2-9)-- Rams were outscored 123-13 in first half of last four games; their OL can't protect their immobile QBs, so season is a nightmare, though Jackson might return here. Miami won four of last five games- they've only got one win by more than nine points. Four of last five Dolphin games stayed under total. Fish are 6-0 when they allow less than 20 points, 0-5 when they allow 20+. Rams scored total of 51 points during hideous five-game losing streak. Bad teams don't have any home field edge; Rams are 1-4 at home, with losses by 28-17-21-24 pts.
Ravens (7-4) @ Bengals (1-9-1)-- Baltimore (+2) won first meeting back in Week 1, 17-10, running ball for 229 yards, holding Bengals to total of 154 yards. Ravens are 3-3 on road, with wins by 14-10-28 points, and losses at Steelers-Colts-Giants. Lowly Bengals covered last two home games, tying Eagles, beating Jaguars, but in their two games since bye, they've run ball 50 times for 99 yards. Ravens were held to 10-3-10 pts in last three losses. Three of last four Baltimore games went over the total. Underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in AFC North games, 2-1 at home.
Colts (7-4) @ Browns (4-7)-- Quinn is out for year, so Browns go back to deposed Anderson as QB, not best situation, especially since they've already said Quinn is starter next year. Colts won last four games, all in close games (3-4-6-3 points); they're 4-2 on road, losing at Tennessee, Green Bay. Browns lost three of last four games- they're 1-5 at home, with only win vs 10-1 Giants. Over is 6-3 in last nine Indy games, 3-1 in last four Brown games. AFC South road favorites are 5-2 vs spread our of division. AFC North underdogs are 12-7 vs spread, 3-2 at home.
Falcons (7-4) @ Chargers (4-7)-- Atlanta RB Turner faces his old team, as surging Falcons (won five of last seven games) hit road for first time in month- they're 2-3 on road, with four of those five games going under total. Disappointing Chargers lost four of last five games- their last four games were all decided by five or less points. Bolts are 3-6 as favorites this season; Falcons are 3-3 as dog. AFC West home favorites are 2-6 in non-divisional games; NFC South road dogs are 6-3. Falcons ran ball for average of 204 ypg in last four weeks, but no takeaways last two games.
Steelers (8-3) @ Patriots (7-4)-- Pittsburgh is 4-1 on road, losing only at Philly- they've allowed one TD on 24 drives in last two road contests, but this is their first road game in four weeks. In last two games, Patriots passed ball for 386-408 yards, as Cassel earns himself big contract next spring. Pats are 4-2 at home, losing to division rivals Miami-Jets- they gave up 34-28 points in last two games. Opponents are 26 for last 49 on third down against them in last four games. AFC North road teams have covered nine of 14 out of division; AFC East home favorites are 6-8.
Chiefs (1-10) @ Raiders (3-8)-- Oakland won first meeting 23-8 back in Week 2 (+3.5), running ball for 300 yards, holding Chiefs to 190 yards, sacking KC QBs five times. Raiders looked good in easy 31-10 win last week in Denver- they averaged 13.3 ypa, ran ball for 158 yards. Chiefs lost last seven games, allowing 32.9 ppg- they gave up 30-54 points in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season. Last seven Oakland games stayed under the total; over is 4-1-1 in last six Chief games. Raiders were 8-13 on third down last week, after being 7-50 in previous four games.
Bears (6-5) @ Vikings (6-5)-- Chicago scored two special teams TDs in wild 48-41 home win vs Vikings in Week 7 (-3), first time in history of Bears they won while allowing 40+ points. Bears were +4 in turnovers, offsetting 28 Viking firat downs and 155-53 rushing edge. Chicago is on road for third week in a row- they're 3-3 on foreign soil, 0-4 when they score 20 points or less. Vikings allowed 20+ points in six of last eight games. Winner here leads NFC North with four games left. Favorites are 6-3 vs the spread in NFC North divisional games. Over is 6-2 in Bears' last eight games, 2-5 in Vikings' last seven.
NFL Early Action
By Josh Jacobs
Minus the three games that will have come on gone on Turkey Day, NFL Sunday will offer up some great opportunities to bank early holiday cash. Three teams playing at one o’clock have a combined 3-12-1 straight up and 5-11 against the spread records at home.
Are we looking at some bonafide home cooking fade plays and what else can we exhume from the early card?
NFC East Collision
The Giants (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) have done just about everything right. Take away a slap around loss in Cleveland during Week 6 (34-14) and New York would be looking at a perfect record.
Jumping right into the foxhole has Washington (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) in a revenge spot after opening the season at the Meadowlands in a 16-7 defeat. The bad news for backers is that the Redskins are a deplorable 2-4 ATS at home this season. Jim Zorn’s crew has fallen flat on its face in FedExField, scoring an inept 16.7 PPG. Running back Clinton Portis has helped to pad the 135.2 YPG on the ground at home but QB Jason Campbell has gone against the grain with five TDs, three interceptions and 19 sacks on home turf.
If there’s an angle to play here it’s that Washington is 5-1 on the ‘under’ at home. Those low scoring contests are credited to the offensive woes but a defense holding opponents to 18 PPG lends itself a helping hand. More specifically, the ‘Skins have allowed a third best 272 total YPG this season.
Trend wise, the Giants have been crushing books as chalk with just two ATS losses this year. Eli Manning is coming off a 26-for-33 effort with 240 passing yards and three TDs in New York’s win over the Cardinals, 37-29 last week. This was a game played without bruising RB Brandon Jacobs and WR Plaxico Burress (who was taken out of the game early in the first quarter).
Again, total players strap up because the Giants have been a cash cow with a 4-1 record on the ‘over’ when traveling. The only hurdle to clear is that most books have set a 41 ½-point total in this contest. New York is 2-2-1 on the ‘over’ when the total is between 38 ½ to 42 and 1-0 on the ‘under’ on the road.
Coming into a revenge game against the Giants, the Redskins are 3-2 SU and ATS in the last five.
Top vs. Bottom
Drew Brees may lead the NFL in passing yards (3,574) but his New Orleans (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) team is at the bottom of the barrel in the NFC South. Installed as 3 ½-point visiting underdogs this week, the Saints will need to figure out how to hold Tampa Bay (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) back on defense.
And that’s the problem. The Saints may excel with the ball but are 22nd worst on defense, allowing 345.9 YPG. Couple the yards allowed with 25.3 PPG sacrificed and we get an ‘over’ at 7-3-1 on the season. Things aren’t getting any better as New Orleans has continued to allow teams to rack up 33.7 PPG in the last three.
The Buccaneers have covered and won their last two straight games as nine and 4 ½-point favorites. Tampa Bay has been a bread earner in the totals department at home with a 4-1 record on the ‘over’. Thanks to Jeff Garcia and company, the Bucs have taken the initiative by scoring 7.8 PPG in the second quarter and 6.6 PPG in the fourth. That’s accounted for 60 percent of the teams total scoring production per contest (24 PPG).
While only playing two games on turf this season (possessing a 1-1 ATS record), Tampa has truly rocketed in the financial department with a 6-3 ATS record on natural grass accompanied by a 6-3 record on the ‘under’ (mainly due to a defense ranked fourth best).
Sportsbetting.com has posted a total of 47 ½ in this contest.
North vs. South
While Carolina (8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) has worked its way into a tie with Tampa Bay for first in the NFC South, it’s done so in unexciting fashion. The Panthers are 4-1 in their last five but are coming off a damaging 45-28 loss against the young and talented Falcons. Meeting with Green Bay (5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) this week, Bodog.com has installed Carolina as three-point visiting ‘dogs with a total at 43.
The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six games. Overall, Carolina is 0-2 ATS this season when the spread has been set as three-point underdogs. This club has prided itself on the defensive end of the ball. Surprisingly, the Panthers have only snatched away a low nine interceptions this season.
Green Bay returns home in a tough situation after getting bombed out of New Orleans last Monday night (51-29). It’s been tough for the Cheese Heads in the last three road tilts, losing in Tennessee and Minnesota by no more then a field goal. But bettors have prospered with a 5-1 ATS performance in the last six. Four of these games witnessed the Packers sitting on the board as underdogs, ranging anywhere from 3 ½ to just one-point.
The ‘dog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head meetings, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five.
Minus the debacle in Oakland during Week 10 (getting picked four times in that contest), Carolina’s QB Jake Delhomme has maintained a 106.8 QB rating in his last four outings.
Low Spread?
Cleveland (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS) will be getting back QB Derek Anderson after Brady Quinn’s broken finger will have him out for the rest of the season. The million dollar question is can Indianapolis (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) cover what appears to be an easy 4 ½-point spread?
The Colts have had problems this season returning money to backers. They’ve gone 2-4 ATS in the last six and are coming off a tight win over San Diego last week (23-20) that many thought was dictated by the refs. But Indy is a surprising 4-1 ATS in road games.
Involved right back in the playoff race, the Colts will face off against five teams that own a combined record at 9-34-1. Tennessee is the lone quality opponent Indy will meet with a 10-1 record.
What could be the saving grace for Cleveland backers is the Colts 0-4 ATS record as road favorites off a SU underdog win. Mix in the outdoor conditions in Ohio at the end of November and the ingredients are there for the underdog to take the ATS win.
The Browns are in despair. The club has been outyarded in five of its last six games by an average of 126.2 YPG, while the defense has been pitiful against the run at home allowing a gaping 148.8 YPG.
Take a look at the total in this one (sitting at 45 point at most spots) as Cleveland is 3-1 on the ‘over’ in the last four. Indy is 6-3 on the ‘over’ in its last nine. The Brownies are also a hot 4-1 on the ‘over’ at home this season.
The Colts are 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS in their last four meetings against Cleveland.
vegasinsider.com.
Four at Four
By B Edwards
**Atlanta at San Diego**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened San Diego (4-7 straight up, 4-6-1 against the spread) as a four-point favorite with a total of 48. As of early Saturday morning, the Chargers were 4½ at most books with the total adjusted to 49. Bettors can back the Falcons to win outright for a plus-180 payout (risk $100 to win $180).
--Atlanta (7-4 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) is off one of its best performances of the season, spanking division-leading Carolina 45-28 to stay in the NFC South race. The Falcons easily took the cash as one-point home favorites, while the 73 combined points obliterated the 41-point total. Michael Turner ran for 117 yards and four touchdowns, including a pair of fourth-quarter TD scampers on fourth-down attempts.
--Atlanta rookie wide receiver Harry Douglas scored the first two touchdowns of his career against the Panthers. The Louisville product found the end zone on a seven-yard TD run and a 59-yard punt return. Douglas also had four receptions for 92 yards.
--Turner has escaped the shadow of LaDainian Tomlinson after signing with the Falcons as a free agent in the off-season. The former Charger has rushed for 1,088 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. As for Tomlinson, his production is down this year. The TCU product has 770 rushing yards and five TDs, averaging just 3.8 YPC. That’s Tomlinson’s lowest yard-per-carry average since his rookie season (3.6 YPC in 2001).
--San Diego has lost back-to-back games and four of its last five. Nevertheless, the Chargers still have plenty of hope as they trail the AFC West-leading Broncos by just two games. They will meet in San Diego in the regular-season finale for both squads.
--Norv Turner’s team is coming off yet another gut-wrenching defeat in the final minute. The Chargers have lost their last two games by four combined points, dropping an 11-10 decision at Pittsburgh before last week’s 23-20 home loss to the Colts. One year after he missed a similar game-winning attempt at San Diego, Indy’s Adam Vinatieri was true from 51 yards out as time expired to lift Tony Dungy’s squad to a stirring victory.
--Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan appears to be on his way to earning Rookie of the Year honors. The Boston College product has demonstrated steady improvement on a weekly basis, prompting some to suggest he might be the best rookie QB in NFL history. Ryan has an 11/6 touchdown-interception ratio for the season, but he has only been picked off once in the last four games. He has 220 passing yards or more in each of the last six games.
--San Diego QB Philip Rivers has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,801 yards with a 23/10 TD-INT ratio.
--San Diego is 3-2 SU but just 2-3 ATS at home this year. Dating back to last season, however, the Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
--Atlanta is 2-3 both SU and ATS on the road. The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for the Falcons, 4-1 in their road games.
--The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for the Chargers, 3-2 in their home assignments. The ‘under’ has cashed in six of San Diego’s last seven outings.
--Dating back to 1994, the Chargers have covered the spread in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams. Atlanta won 21-20 in the last encounter in 2004, but San Diego hooked up its backers as 5½-point underdogs.
**Broncos at Jets**
--As of early Saturday morning, most betting shops were listing New York (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) as an eight-point favorite with a total of 47½. The Broncos are plus-280 to win outright (risk $100 to win $280).
--Denver (6-5 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) has lost four of its last six games, including last week’s embarrassing 31-10 loss to Oakland as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ Jay Cutler completed just 16-of-37 passes for 204 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception.
--Eric Mangini’s team is on fire with five consecutive wins since losing 16-13 at Oakland in overtime back on Oct. 19. The Jets are 4-1 ATS during their winning streak, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-190 payout in last week’s 34-13 win at Tennessee as 5 ½-point underdogs. Brett Favre threw for 224 yards and a pair of TDs, while Leon Washington ran for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Thomas Jones also produced a workmanlike effort, rushing for 96 yards on 27 carries.
--New York has won four of its five home games at Giants Stadium in the Meadowlands, posting a 3-2 spread record. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road.
--Cutler has 3,036 passing yards in 2008. He was looking like an MVP back in September, but a recent penchant for making mistakes has ruined that possibility. Cutler has a 19/12 TD-INT ratio for the season.
--Favre is completing a career-best 70.6 percent of his throws. He has 2,461 passing yards with a 20/13 TD-INT ratio. The interceptions have been less prevalent lately, as Favre has been picked off just twice in the Jets’ last four games.
--New York owns a one-game lead over the Patriots in the AFC East. The Dolphins and Bills are both two games off the pace.
--The Jets are 7-4-1 ATS as home favorites during Mangini’s three-year tenure.
--The ‘over’ is 3-1-1 in Denver’s five road games.
--The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Jets, 3-2 in their home outings.
**Steelers at Patriots**
--LVSC opened New England (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) as a one-point favorite with a total of 41. As of Saturday morning, the Patriots were still one-point favorites with the total reduced to 40.
--Pittsburgh (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) has won back-to-back games to maintain a one-game cushion on Baltimore in the NFC North standings. The Steelers are off a 27-10 win over Cincinnati last Thursday as 11½-point home favorites. The 37 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 34½-point total.
--Ben Roethlisberger had an excellent game against the Bengals despite playing in cold, rainy weather conditions. Roethlisberger completed 17-of-30 passes for 243 yards and one touchdown without an interception. Nevertheless, Big Ben still has a mediocre 11/11 TD-INT ratio so far this year.
--The Patriots bounced back from a home loss to the Jets by thumping Miami 48-28 last week. They covered the number as one-point road favorites thanks to the brilliant play of Matt Cassel, who threw for more than 400 yards for a second straight week. The career back-up who was making just his 10 career start threw for 415 yards, three TDs and one interception. Cassel completed 30-of-43 attempts, finding Randy Moss for all three of his scoring strikes.
--Bill Belichick’s team has won four of its six home games this year, but it has just a 2-4 spread record to show for it. Dating back to 2007, the Pats are an abysmal 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in Foxboro.
--Mike Tomlin’s squad is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in five road games in 2008. The ‘under’ is 3-2 for the Steelers on the road.
--New England has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings between these teams. The Pats are 7-1 ATS during that stretch.
**Chiefs at Raiders**
--Can you say scrub game? On the bright side, you can wager on this miserable matchup. Most books are listing Oakland (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 41½. The Chiefs are plus-140 on the money line.
--When these teams met at Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 2, Oakland captured a 23-8 victory as a 3½-point underdog.
--The Raiders slammed Denver 31-10 last week, avenging a blowout loss from Week 1. JaMarcus Russell didn’t throw an incompletion until late in the third quarter. Russell connected on 10-of-11 throws against the Broncos for 152 yards, one TD and no interceptions. Johnnie Lee Higgins returned his second punt for a score in as many weeks, while Darren McFadden ran for a pair of TDs.
--Kansas City (1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS) is winless in five road games, but don’t tell that to its backers who have cashed at a 3-2 ATS clip.
--Herm Edwards could be on his way out the door in just his third season in Kansas City. The Chiefs have lost seven in a row, including last week’s 54-31 home loss to Buffalo as three-point underdogs.
--When listed as an underdog of nine points or less in 2008, the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS.
--The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for the Raiders, 3-2 in their home games. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight Oakland games and six of its last seven.
--KC has watched the ‘over’ go 6-5 overall, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in their road assignments.
--The ‘under’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these AFC West adversaries.
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Chicago at Minnesota
By Brad Young
Sunday Night Football features a battle atop the NFC North standings between a pair of 6-5 teams. The ‘Black and Blue’ division has been beating up on itself this season, with Chicago and Minnesota the only teams currently over .500.
Green Bay is also in the mix for a guaranteed playoff spot for the division winner at 5-6. Detroit, still winless on the season, already has its sights set on April’s NFL Draft after enduring another Thanksgiving drubbing.
Chicago wraps up a three-game road trip with this contest, trying to improve on its 3-3 straight up and 3-2 against the spread ledger away from home. The Bears have won three of their four NFC North games, and have outscored opponents 267-234 this season.
Minnesota maintains a 4-1 SU home ledger while going just 2-3 ATS. The Vikings’ strength this season has been its run-stopping unit, yielding an average of just 70.4 yards per contest. However, defensive tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams might be playing their last game before a league-mandated four-game suspension due to a banned substance of diet pills.
Caesars Palace installed Minnesota as a three-point (-120) home ‘chalk’ over Chicago, with the total set at 42. The line originally opened with the Vikings as a 3½-point favorite, with the total listed at 41½. NBC Sports will provide coverage of Sunday Night Football beginning at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Chicago (6-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) got back on the winning track by pummeling St. Louis last weekend as a seven-point road ‘chalk,’ 27-3. The combined 30 points failed to eclipse the 44-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest. The Bears had dropped two games in a row SU and three consecutive ATS before upending the Rams.
Chicago jumped out to a 24-3 halftime advantage and never looked back. The Bears finished the contest with advantages in first downs (18-13), rushing yards (208-14) and turnovers forced (4-2).
Quarterback Kyle Orton completed 17-of-28 passes for 132 yards with a touchdown, while connecting with wideout Devin Hester five times for 57 yards. Running back Matt Forte contributed with 21 carries for 139 yards and two scores in the victory.
Minnesota (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) knocked off Jacksonville last weekend as a two-point road underdog, 30-12. The combined 42 points slithered ‘over’ the 41-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to improve to 4-1 the previous five outings.
The Vikings prevailed by finishing the game with sizeable advantages in rushing yards (122-35) and turnovers forced (5-1). Quarterback Gus Frerotte was 12-of-20 passing for 120 yards with an interception, while running back Adrian Peterson had 17 carries for 80 yards and a score.
Chicago outlasted Minnesota back on October 19 as a three-point home favorite, 48-41, while the combined 89 points soared ‘over’ the 38-point closing total. The Bears are 3-1 ATS the last four games in this series, with the ‘over’ also going 3-1.
Chicago tight end Desmond Clark (knee), cornerback Nathan Vasher (wrist), wide receiver Marty Booker (knee) and safety Mike Brown (leg) are ‘questionable’ versus the Vikings.
Minnesota offensive tackle Artis Hicks (arm), linebacker Vinny Ciurciu (hand) and tight end Garrett Mills (ankle) are ‘questionable’ against the Bears.
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Total Talk - Week 13
By Chris David
Week 12 Recap
Scoreboard operators were paid overtime last weekend as a total of 837 points were scored in the 16 games played, shattering the previous record of 788 points set back in the final week of the 2007 campaign. The combined scoring average this year is 45 points per game, which is the highest number dating all the way back to 1983, when the NFL first went to a 16-game schedule. What does it mean for gamblers, more importantly total players? If you’re riding the ‘over’, then you’re ahead of the game at least you should be. The ‘over’ went 10-6 last week and for the most part, most players knew their fate at halftime.
Of course you had a couple aberrations, like 24 points in the fourth quarter of the Eagles-Ravens (36-7) game, which barely skipped ‘over’ the closing number of 39. And who could forget the slugfest between the Jets and Titans that wasn’t. New York led 10-3 after 30 minutes but decided to make a statement, adding 24 points in the final two stanzas for the 34-13 victory. Hence another ‘over’ winner.
On the season, the ‘over’ now stands at 89-81 (52%).
Monday Night Football
In the 13 games played in the primetime slot this year on ESPN, the ‘over’ has produced an eye opening 12-1 ledger. It’s kind of mind boggling watching the numbers creep up each week too, considering most bettors favor the ‘over’ as well. Last week, the Saints and Packers saw the total close as high as 52 ½ points and it was 21-14 midway through the 2nd quarter. New Orleans posted a 51-29 victory and the combined 80 points was the fifth highest MNF game in its history. Books took it on the chin as gamblers hammered the ‘over’ in the first half, second half and for the game.
This week the MNF crew heads to the Lone Star State for a meaningless game between a pair of 4-7 clubs, Houston and Jacksonville. Last we jinxed the Texans by talking about how their ‘over’ run (9-1 at the time) was crazy. Sure enough, Houston defeats Cleveland 16-6 in a battle that featured key turnovers, untimely penalties and five field goals all under 40 yards too. I’ll say it again and again -- the biggest ‘over’ killer in football is short FGs.
Oddsmakers have put the total on this matchup at 48, which is the highest number in the last nine meetings between the two AFC South clubs. If this game plays out like recent meetings between the Jaguars and Texans, then be prepared for more fireworks. The ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in the head-to-head series, watching a combined 54, 70 and 57 points scored during this stretch.
Divisional Matchups – Round Two
When divisional opponents meet for the second time in the regular season, play the opposite result of the total if the two teams exceeded or fell below the closing ‘over/under’ by 10 ore more points in the first meeting.
The above system produced a 1-2 mark (33%) last week, with the Denver/Oakland ‘under’ being the lone winner. If you stick to the above, you will come out on top. Sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way and sometimes it does. Put it behind you and you’ll see positive results going forward.
In Week 12, you have a quartet of games that meet the criteria of the system:
Baltimore at Cincinnati: In Week 1, the Ravens defeated the Benglals 17-10 and the score probably should’ve been a lot less. Baltimore put up scores on a reverse and a busted bootleg, while the Bengals returned a fumble for their points. The number is down to 36 ½ points for this week and it could go lower. Baltimore’s defense might get a couple touchdowns itself, or at least set up some short tracks. Play – OVER
N.Y. Giants at Washington: The Redskins will be looking to avenge a 16-7 loss to the Giants in their 2008 opener. The 23 points fell way short of the 41-point total. Most books have kept a close line to the first meeting and something has to give here. New York has seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 and Washington has watched the ‘under’ go 8-2. Play - OVER
Chicago at Minnesota: The Bears dropped the Vikings 48-41, easily surpassing the closing number of 38 ½ points. This week, the total has jumped to 42 points and they meet on the fast track from the Metrodome, where the ‘under’ has cashed in the last two head-to-head battles at this venue. Play - UNDER
Jacksonville at Houston: Just above we gave you every reason why you should play the ‘over’ on this matchup, but the system says opposite. Fifty-seven points in the first meeting, going 14 points ‘over’ the total of 43. Again, public perception has this total almost a touchdown higher. It’s a gutsy bet, but just don’t watch it. Play - UNDER
Stock Up or Down
Jets – UP: The New York Bretts (Thanks Skip Bayless) have averaged 33.8 the last five weeks, helping the team go 5-0 and the ‘over’ 5-0 as well. Denver travels East after giving up a 31-spot to the hapless Raiders. It would be very surprising to see New York held under 24 points in this contest.
49ers – UP: The ‘over’ is 6-0-1 in the last seven games. The 49ers have surrendered 30, 31, 29, 29 and 35 on the road this year. Most would expect another shootout on Sunday when the team visits Buffalo, who has seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in its first three meetings against NFC West clubs.
Chargers – DOWN: After starting the season on a 4-0 ‘over’ run, the ‘under’ has gone 6-1. The Falcons enter Qualcomm Stadium and while their offense has been hot in Atlanta, a different story outside the Georgia Dome.
Raiders – DOWN: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven. The offense blew up for a season-high 31 points last week so duplicating that effort will be next to impossible. Then again, didn’t the Chiefs just give up 54 points last week?
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Where the action is: NFL line moves
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line/Total: Opened Bucs -4 and 48. No movement on the line, but the total has seen some sharp action on the under. We’re currently dealing 46.5 but the public is on the over and could push this total back up. I could see us closing 47.5.
Matchup of the Game: QB Drew Brees and his record-setting season vs. the Bucs' famous Cover 2 and their No. 2 ranked passing defense. Brees is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record.
Key Injuries: Saints – CB Aaron Glenn IR. RB Reggie Bush Probable. DE Jeff Charleston Questionable. FB Mark Karney Doubtful.
Bucs – TE Alex Smith & S Jermaine Phillips both Probable.
Weather: Game time temperature in the mid 70’s, but possible scattered thunder showers.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
Line/Total: We opened Giants -3.5 and 41.5. There’s been very little movement to the line or total. We’re currently dealing -3.5 (-115) on the Giants and so far the majority of the action is on New York and we’ll probably close -4.
Matchup of the Game: Giants fifth ranked defense vs. a Redskins offense that was God awful against New York in Week 1. Redskins had only 11 first downs and a total of 209 yards in that game.
Key Injuries: Giants – WR Plaxico Burress out indefinitely due to a gun shot wound. RB Brandon Jacobs missed last game, listed Probable. DE Jerome McDougle & DE Justin Tuck both listed Probable. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, LB Jonathan Goff, S Sammy Knight, and LB Gerris Wilkinson all listed Questionable.
Redskins – RB Clinton Portis, DL Cornelius Griffin , OT Chris Samuels, and DT Anthony Montgomery all listed Probable. DT Kedric Golston, DE Andre Carter and LB London Fletcher all listed Questionable.
Weather: Game time temperature 40 degrees and windy. 50 percent chance of rain.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Line/Total: Patriots -1.5 and 40. We moved the Pats -1, zero movement on the total. Strong even action on this game, don’t think we’ll see much movement to either the line or total.
Matchup of the Game: Steelers No. 1 ranked defense and their defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau’s famous zone blitzes vs. QB Matt Cassell. Cassell has steadily improved with each game, but he’s never seen a defense this difficult to prepare for. It will be interesting to see how he handles all the different looks the Steelers will present.
Key Injuries: Steelers – RB Willie Parker Questionable. CB Bryant McFadden Doubtful. WR Santonio Holmes Probable. OT Marvel Smith & Deshea Townsend both expected to Miss.
Patriots – DT Richard Seymour & Michael Richardson both listed Probable. DT Ty Warren, LB Tedy Bruschi and CB Ellis Hobbs all listed Questionable.
Weather: Game time temperatures in the low 40's, good chance of rain.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Line/Total: We opened Vikings -3.5 and 42. Slight move toward the dog and under. We’re currently dealing Vikings -3.5 +100 and 41.5.
Matchup of the Game: Both teams love rushing the ball to help set up their passing games, but are going to struggle with their rushing attack because these two defenses rank in the Top 5 versus the run. The team that can establish the run will win the game.
Key Injuries: Bears – CB Nathan Vasher is out Indefinitely. TE Desmond Clark, WR Marty Booker and S Mike Brown all list Questionable.
Vikings – OT Artis Hicks, LB Vinny Ciurciu and TE Garrett Mills all listed Questionable.
Weather: Played inside the Metro Dome.
NFL cheat sheet: Week 13
By SHAWN HARTLEN
San Francisco at Buffalo (-6.5)
Why 49ers cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on turf. Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Shaun Hill has completed 68.4 percent of his passes with five TDs and one interception since becoming the starting QB.
Why Bills cover: Have won two of last three matchups. Trent Edwards gets to face the league’s 29th-ranked pass defense. 49ers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Total (42.5): Over is 7-1-1 in Bills’ last nine home games and 4-0 in 49ers’ last four games overall.
Baltimore at Cincinnati (+7)
Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Cincinnati. Should have no problem shutting down Bengals’ poor rushing attack.
Why Bengals cover: Have won three of last four meetings and three straight against Baltimore at home. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Held the Ravens to 17 points in their first meeting this season, a 7-point loss.
Total (36.5): Over is 4-1-1 in Ravens’ last six road games and 5-0-1 in their last six games overall.
Indianapolis at Cleveland (+4.5)
Why Colts cover: Have won six of last seven meetings. With Brady Quinn out for the season, Cleveland will turn to Derek Anderson (66.0 QB rating) to lead team. Joseph Addai has been great the last two weeks (254 combined yards) and looks to be fully recovered from his hamstring injury.
Why Browns cover: Are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Jamal Lewis has rushed for 253 yards (4.4 average) and two TDs in three games against Indianapolis.
Total (45): Over is 4-1 in Colts’ last five road games.
Carolina at Green Bay (-3)
Why Panthers cover: Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Green Bay gave up 51 points to the Saints on Monday. Julius Peppers has six sacks in his last five games and could dominate a Packers’ line that has trouble with the pass rush. Packers’ secondary is banged up with multiple players dealing with injuries.
Why Packers cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Jonathan Stewart, who has battled foot injuries all season, was wearing a protective boot after last Sunday’s game.
Total (43): Over is 8-2 in Packers’ last 10 home games.
Denver at N.Y. Jets (-9)
Why Broncos cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Jets could be over-confident after knocking of the then undefeated Titans last week. Expected to get cornerback Champ Bailey and running back Selvin Young back for this game.
Why Jets cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Brett Favre has become more of a game manager and less of a gunslinger after meeting with coach Eric Mangini and has only two interceptions in his last four games after throwing 11 in his first seven. Denver has the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense.
Total (47.5): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Miami at St. Louis (NA)
Why Dolphins cover: Have won seven of the last eight meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. St. Louis has the league’s 30th-ranked rush defense.
Why Rams cover: Could get running back Steven Jackson and blind-side tackle Orlando pace back for this game. Marc Bulger threw for 295 yards and two TDs (one rushing) in his only game against the Dolphins.
Total (NA): Under is 4-1 in Dolphins’ last five games.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Why Saints cover: Beat the Bucs 24-20 in Week 1 as 3-point favorites. Exceptional passing attack put up 51 points on Green Bay last week. Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Could get Reggie Bush back this week.
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Jeff Garcia's two best passer-rating games have come against New Orleans. Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Total (47.5): Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Tampa Bay.
N.Y. Giants at Washington (+3.5)
Why Giants cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Get Brandon Jacobs back from knee injury. Jacobs has rushed for 246 yards in two games against Washington.
Why Redskins cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC East. Wide receiver Antwaan Randle El has thrown two touchdown passes in his career against the Giants. Clinton Portis, the league’s leading rusher, continues to rack up yards on the ground despite battling numerous injuries.
Total (41.5): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
Atlanta at San Diego (-5)
Why Falcons cover: Have won four straight against San Diego. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Michael Turner leads the league in TDs and goes against his former team for the first time.
Why Chargers cover: Are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Philip Rivers almost unbeatable at home, going 18-3 as a starter with 29 touchdowns and a 94.3 QB rating.
Total (49): Under is 6-1 in Chargers’ last seven games.
Pittsburgh at New England (-1)
Why Steelers cover: Lead the AFC in sacks. Underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Are protecting banged up QB Ben Roethlisberger better and giving him more time to throw. Mewelde Moore has averaged 90 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry in four starts in place of injured Willie Parker, who is questionable.
Why Patriots cover: Have won six of the last seven meetings. Matt Cassel has six TDs and thrown for 815 yards in the last two weeks. Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Total (40): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Kansas City at Oakland (-3)
Why Chiefs cover: Have won nine of last 11 meetings. Are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Oakland. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Road team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Tyler Thigpen leads the NFL (tied) with nine touchdowns in November.
Why Raiders cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC. Coming off huge 31-10 upset win over Denver as 9-point underdogs. Torched the Chiefs for 300 yards on the ground in Week 2.
Total (41.5): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oakland.
Chicago at Minnesota (-3.5)
Why Bears cover: Are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Beat Vikings 48-41 in Week 7 as 3-point faves. Can control the ground game and the clock with standout rookie Matt Forte who needs 91 yards rushing for 1000 on the season.
Why Vikings cover: Adrian Peterson has 423 yards rushing and seven touchdowns in three games against the Bears. Home team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Kyle Orton is only averaging 136 yards passing in two games since returning from injury.
Total (42.5): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Jacksonville at Houston (-3)
Why Jaguars cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Are 7-4 on Monday nights. Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Why Texans cover: Are making their first Monday Night Football appearance. Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Houston. Jacksonville is out of playoff contention and playing sloppy football as a result.
Total (48): Over is 9-2-2 in Jaguars’ last 13 road games, 5-1 in Texans’ last six home games and 13-3 in Texans’ last 16 games overall.
Week 13: Five Stats You Need to Know
by: Scott Rickenbach
Heading into Week 13 of the NFL please note these stats (all are ATS – against the spread, unless otherwise noted) are definitely items to consider as you look at the deep NFL card. However, this does not mean these are “plays” in the true sense of the word. That said, the hope is that the ATS information below helps you as you “traverse” this week’s NFL card! As always, best of luck in all your sports gaming from Scott Rickenbach
1) Buffalo is 6-2 when facing an opponent from the NFC. You might think that would be a ‘let-up spot’ or a ‘let-down’ spot but as evidenced by this stat, the Bills generally have no problem putting away non-conference opposition. Helping them this time around is who that opponent is! The Bills are hosting the 49’ers on Sunday and, like many teams from the West Coast, San Francisco struggles when playing in the Eastern Time zone as they’ve gotten the cash just 8 times in their last 33 games in the East! Also, the 49’ers can’t seem to get motivated on the road unless they’re playing a team from the NFC West! The Niners have failed to cover the spread eight straight times when on the road against non-divisional opposition!
2) Carolina is 2-5 as a “small dog”. In this case we use “small dog” to be +3.5 or less. This is significant because, overall, the Panthers have a reputation as a good road team. However, they are about a field goal underdog at Green Bay this week and the Packers have lost the money just five times in their last 17 games as a favorite! Carolina has covered just twice in their five road games this season and these stats favor another ATS loss for the Panthers this week.
3) San Diego is 8-3 as a home favorite. This week they’re laying a fairly sizable number to the Falcons. However, to ease your mind about laying the points, note that Atlanta is just 2-5 as a road dog. So we’ve got the Falcons, who don’t travel well, going all the way to the West Coast for this one and facing a Chargers team likely to be fired up after losing at home to the Colts in a tight game on Sunday Night Football. Indeed, laying the points may very well be the way to go in this match-up!
4) Tampa Bay is on a 10-3 run at home. The Bucs are laying a handful of points here – about 4 – but note that the Saints are just 3-7 in their last ten divisional games. Also, New Orleans is coming off of that big win on Monday Night Football over the Packers. So the Saints are on a short week and facing a Buccaneers team that has performed very well in this role in the past. The Bucs have lost the money just once in their last eight games a home favorite in a divisional match-up!
5) New England is on a 2-9 run at home. This includes their home playoff games but, even so, you get the point! The Patriots have been a money burner at home for quite awhile now! This won’t be helped by the fact that this week they must deal with the #1 defense in the league. New England is coming off of a big divisional win at Miami and they threw all over the Dolphins but Miami is quickly dropping in the rankings and is now becoming one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to defending the pass. Now the Patriots will have to deal with the defense that is ranked #1 both against the pass and against the run! This will be a much bigger challenge for the Pats this week and Miami did throw for 330 yards against them last week. Pittsburgh also brings some momentum into this game from dominating the Bengals last week. Sure it was “only” Cincinnati but the offense was able to develop a nice rhythm in the game and we know all about this Steelers defense! The odds makers tight line here could very well be justified as the road team looks quite inviting in this match-up!
NFL Previews
By Andre Gomes
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After an huge win on National TV against the Packers, New Orleans has an even harder test this week at Tampa Bay, in an huge divisional game for both teams. The NFC South is up for grabs and all four teams of the division have already shown quality enough to be competitive on a postseason game. Tampa Bay and Carolina lead the division with a 8-3 record, then Atlanta is one game behind and New Orleans is two games behind. But with both Carolina and Atlanta being road underdogs this week and New Orleans facing Tampa Bay, this is a crucial weekend for the Saints, in order to get closer to the division lead. For Tampa Bay, the following three games (vs New Orleans; @Carolina; @Atlanta) will decide their fate this season.
Drew Brees had another magical game last Monday against Green Bay, but he may have a letdown this weekend. Brees is yet to be capable this season of playing a good game on the road after a great performance at home the week before. On week 1, he had a great performance at home against the Buccaneers, but on the following week he struggled at Washington by getting intercepted twice. And on week 6, he had another very good performance at home against Oakland, but he struggled again at Carolina in the following week by not throwing a single TD pass and getting intercepted once. Brees is averaging just 1.0 TD pass and 1.4 interceptions per road game this season and he will face a tough test this week against the good pass defense of the Bucs and also the weather, as there is a 80% chance of raining during the game. However, we should never underrate Brees, who is capable of pull out some amazing plays out of nowhere and change the game completely with just one pass.
However, New Orleans will not be as dependent from Drew Brees this week as they were in the past few weeks. Reggie Bush is probable for this game and together with Deuce McCallister, the Saints should be able to run the football better this weekend. Even though Bush hasn't been having a good season, Tampa Bay will be so concerned in trying to cause pressure to Drew Brees that the Saints may have some good rushing numbers today. New Orleans has been rushing the football better and they have rushed for 98 yards or better in 5 of their last 6 games, well above their season average of 92.4 rushing yards per game.
On the other side, Tampa Bay doesn't appear a lot of times in the highlights at the end of the day, but they have a great 8-3 record, based on a very good defense. They are 5-0 at home this season, winning those games by an average of 12.8 points, while allowing just 11.2 points per game to their opponents. The Bucs are a very smart team, which is capable of changing their tactics, considering the opponent they are facing. For example, last week Jeff Garcia attempted just 18 passes, while the team rushed the football 32 times against Detroit, which was quite logical, considering Detroit's horrible run defense. However, when the Bucs faced Minnesota (one of the best run defenses of the league), Jeff Garcia attempted 30 passes, with the team having a 50/50 ratio of rushing/passing. Speaking of Jeff Garcia, the QB of the Bucs is having an amazing season, with 68.2% completions (2nd on the league behind Favre) and just 3 interceptions in the 248 passes he has already thrown this season (1.2% - 2nd on the league behind Jason Campbell). Now with TE Alex Smith back in the field and against an horrible pass defense of the Saints, Jeff Garcia has all the conditions he needs to have a great game this weekend. RB Warrick Dunn seems to be better from his back injury and he has averaged 6.2 yards per rush last weekend against the terrible run defense of Detroit. The run defense of the Saints is better, but not much better and Tampa Bay should be capable of producing some good offense this weekend. On their defensive side, SS Jermaine Phillips should be back this week after an absence of 3 weeks due to a forearm injury and he is going to be a crucial element in trying to stop the almost unstoppable offense of New Orleans today.
This is a crucial game for both teams, but maybe it is a little bit more crucial for the Saints. The level of performance of Drew Brees today will define the winner. Tampa Bay is a better team than New Orleans, as they are most consistent, have a better defense and their offense is more balanced than the offense of the Saints. However, if Drew Brees starts throwing long passes after long passes, the offense of the Buccaneers isn't good enough to outscore the Saints. They need to play good defense and they have the weapons to do so. But the Packers had them too last Monday, but Drew Brees on a good day is simply unstoppable.
Trend of the Game: New Orleans is 8-1 Over after scoring 30 points or more in a game in the past 2 seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Great game in perspective, especially considering how important this game is for both teams. All eyes are on Matt Cassel, who after having more than 400 yards in the last two games of the team will now face the best pass defense of the NFL. The Patriots are one game behind the Jets in their division and one game in front of Miami and Buffalo. They are also tied with Baltimore and Indianapolis for the wildcard race and they will give a giant step onto the postseason if they defeat the Steelers this weekend, considering Pittsburgh is just one game in front of them in the standings and they may be a direct opponent of the Patriots in the race for one of the two wildcards available in the AFC.
One of the most interesting things in the Patriots this season is how well they have been running the football. They have run the football for over 98 yards in all but one game this season, even though they have had a lot of injury problems in the RB position. Laurence Maroney is in the injury reserve. LaMont Jordan has missed the last 7 games of the team and also Sammy Morris has missed 3 games of the team. However, players like BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk were always able to keep the Patriots running well the football, even when the team was missing their best running backs. But their task today will be very tough, as Pittsburgh is also the best run defense team in the league and they have only allowed their opponents to run the football over 85 yards once this season.
As I've said, all eyes will be on Matt Cassel who has been on-fire in the past two weeks, however he will now face the best pass defense of the league, in a possible letdown scenario for him. Pittsburgh has just allowed one team to pass over 200 yards against them this season and it was Indianapolis. Now Cassel will have his definitive test to see if he is capable of filling up the boots of Tom Brady and lead the team to the postseason or if those two games were just a fairytale and Cassel will return to the average numbers he was having until the game against the Jets.
At the same time the offense of the Patriots have skyrocketed in the past two weeks, their defense has pulled out some shocking performances by allowing the Jets to have 375 yards and Miami 392 yards against them. This exactly coincided with the injury of Adalius Thomas, who was being the leader of the defense of the Pats. For this weekend, New England has basically half of their defense injured and there is the certainty that at least one of them will be able to play. Besides LB Adalius Thomas, who is out for today, the Pats have LB Tedy Bruschi, CB Ellis Hobbs, DT Richard Seymour and DT Ty Warren all questionable for today. New England has already several defensive players in the IR, so if all of these players miss today's game, the Pats may be into another terrible defensive performance today.
On the other side, the Steelers are clearly under pressure. They are just one game ahead of Baltimore in their division and they have probably the hardest schedule of the league until the end of the regular season: @New England; vs Dallas; @Baltimore; @Tennessee; vs Cleveland. So, with Baltimore just one game behind them and with a much easier schedule, the Steelers are clearly under pressure in here. After a major struggle in the offense, the Steelers have comeback to their good offensive numbers in their last three games, with 326 yards against the Colts, 410 yards against San Diego and 364 yards against Cincinnati. The problem is that all these three games were at home and now Pittsburgh is back on the road, where they have struggled in the offense while facing teams with winning records.
After struggling five weeks with a shoulder injury, Ben Roethlisberger looked much better on the past three games of the Steelers by averaging 6.8, 7.5 and 8.1 Y/A and 278 passing yards per game. Now against a defense who is struggling with injuries, Big Ben should have the time he likes to have to throw the ball well and have his fourth good performance in a row. This improvement of Big Ben is happening at the same time RB Willie Parker is back on the lineup and already doing some damage. He is still struggling with some knee and shoulder pain, but just the fact he is on the field gives more space for Big Ben to throw the football in better conditions. The Steelers are really picking up their level and they have actually a better record on the road (4-1) than at home (4-2)!
If matchup wise, the edge goes to the Steelers, this is a must win game for the Patriots, in order to give them confidence for their two game road trip in the West, where they will face Seattle and Oakland in back to back weeks. The Patriots are a very tough team to beat at home and even though the Steelers may look like the favorites to win in here, I would never count out the Patriots to win today, especially as this game has ballgame written all over it.
Trend of the Game: Bill Belichick is 22-7 ATS against good defensive teams (allowing 17ppg or less) as the coach of New England.
NFL RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy
Miami vs. St. Louis
You know the funny thing about this game is that over 41% are actually favoring St. Louis here with the 9 points. What is more interesting is that the line opened up at -8 and in some books went down to -7.5 and in others, went up to -9. Note, though Miami will be fired up after losing by 20 points to division rival the Pats at home as they look for a bounce-back. St. Louis just lost 3-27 to the Bears and this team has lost four straight covers. Heck, I would roll with the Dolphins on the bounce-back as my lean here and the public is not pounding the Dolphins or anything so it is not a huge public play. Bulger is listed probable for this game, Pace and Jackson are questionable for the Rams.
Giants vs. Washington
Note, that this is going to be a great game and Portis will play hurt. Burress is out for this game but Jacobs is probable. And, when it comes to the Giants, I don't think it really matters who is on this field as there is a reason why this team is 10-1 this year and they are the defending champs - they are good and extremely well coached - plus, their defense is significantly better than Dallas - Yes, I said it. The only thing is, over 71% are on the Redskins, but I would never bet against the Giants, esp. considering they already beat this team 16-7 at home, covered the last 6 games, and Wash has lost back to back games at home including against Dallas and Pitt.
San Fran vs. Buffalo
Over 72% are favoring the Buffs here at home. You knew they would especially after putting up 54 points at KC and this team easily covered their 3 point road chalk. San Fran comes off a 13 point loss at Dallas - and that is actually pretty impressive considering how bad the Seahawks were at Dallas. Not, that I'm playing anything in this game, but call me nuts, I think San Fran hangs tough. I don't necessarily lean on them, but I do think this game likely goes over if you believe in the Niners being an active dog.
Baltimore vs. Cincy
Man, the public loves them some Ravens. And, why not? Shoot, this team continues to rock and roll and prove many, many people wrong as they are not a fluke. As I look across the board, I don't think I've seen a week in the NFL with so many 72% public favorites, should be very interesting to see how these games pan out. As per this game, Cincy is not bad at all folks with Fitzpatrick - look, they were competitive at Pitt, they beat Jacksonville at home, they tied the Eagles and this is a rivalry game. Remember, this game is this team's playoff game, there is inclement weather and Johnson is probable. I lean on the over here if anything. After all, Baltimore is 7-3-1 to the over this year and is 6-0-1 to the over of late.
Colts vs. Cleveland
This will be my comp play. Very rarely do you see something like this in the NFL. Usually it comes around I'd say twice a year. Over 80% of the public are on the Colts. But, the line continues to not budge here. Why? Are the Browns going to step up and defeat the Colts? Is there some incredible incentive going on here for this team that is not headed to the playoffs? In fact, the line here opened up at -5.5 and has actually gone down to -4.5 despite the heavy Colts action. Colts have also been very "public" over the last few weeks as well - or maybe Derek Anderson decides he will rock and roll with Peyton Manning to make a claim on this team once again. Indy has won 4 in a row and Cleveland comes off the 6-13 loss to Houston. I know this sounds nuts, but I think Cleveland likely loses this game by a field goal, as you just don't see too often such a big public play and the line either remaining steady or in fact, even going the other way from an off-shore opening. Now, am I going to bet this play - no. I am confident about my only NFL Play today, but I am going to place it as my comp pick to highlight that something is obviously up with this game. Give me Derek Anderson back in the saddle and the Browns on the bounce-back in this game. This is the closes the Browns will get to a playoff game this year. .
Atlanta vs. San Diego
Man, I love me some Falcons. This is my team and I am so thrilled for the fan base to have a good guy in Matt Ryan heading the team and a good coach in Smith. Let me tell you something, Michael Vick was a thug and half the Falcons including DeAngelo Hall were thugs. I missed the days of good guys like Jesse Tuggle and Terrence Mathis and the Falcons have recommitted to getting no nonsense good athletes once again such as Turner, Norwood, Ryan and re-signing Finneran. Michael Turner faces his old team here but here is the deal, the Chargers I think have come to terms that they are not going to the playoffs. After all, this team is 4-7 and even if they go undefeated here on out, they will be 9-7. But, Chargers come off that loss to Indy at home so they will be fired up but the Falcons are playing great football. If anything, a lean on the over here.
Pittsburgh vs. New England
This is going to be another great game. I mean look, you have to give credit where credit is due. New England despite all their injuries just went to Miami and routed the Dolphins. This team is 7-4 and faces a Pitt team that is 8-3. Pitt has not beat this team since 05'. Pitt comes off a nice cover at the Bengals and remember, they are 3-0 ATS on the road of late winning nicely outright at Jacksonville, at Washington outright and routing the Bengals. This game can go either way if you ask me. no thanks, just a fan here.
KC vs. Oakland
Don't look now, but Oakland has actually won 3 games. This is a big rivalry game of course. Oakland beat this team 23-8 last year, comes off back to back covers at Miami and a huge outright win at Denver which I was on. In my speadsheets I had Oakland by a field goal, but I can see them winning by 21-17 but this isn't the game with the most value I would say by any means.
Denver vs. Jets
The difference one player makes is remarkable. I bet the Packers are feeling pretty silly right now. And, they should. Denver comes off the outright loss to the Raiders in which they were favored by 9 and puts them in a precarious 6-5 position as compared to 7-4. The Jets have covered 4 straight including winning at New England, winning at Tennessee which is really a testament to their character, winning at Buffalo and blowing out the Rams at home. The Jets have covered 4 in a row. But, let's face it, Denver comes off a fairly embarrassing loss and they likely get up for this game, but I have a standard rule, I don't bet against Favre.
Chicago vs. Minnesota
Chicago comes off the nice win at St. Louis 27-3, they face a Vikings team that sits at 6-5 as well and of course, this has MASSIVE playoff implication. The good news for the Falcons is that they will have one of these teams go to 6-6 regardless. And note, the Falcons really control their own destiny and winning at San Diego today goes a long way as they will be 8-5. As per these teams, 7-5 sounds a lot better than 6-6 for a wild card. Chicago beat this team by a touchdown earlier this year, so this is a revenge game for Minny and remember, Chicago got blown out at Green Bay in a conference game so I can see them getting hammered here in a Vikings revenge game.