NFL cheat sheet: Week 17
By SHAWN HARTLEN
New England at Buffalo (+6 1/2)
Why Patriots cover: Have won last ten meetings. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Buffalo. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Bills could be without Marshawn Lynch who has a shoulder injury.
Why Bills cover: With TDs in two straight games, running back Fred Jackson has played well in Lynch's absence. Held Matt Cassel to 234 yards and no touchdowns in their last meeting.
Total (42): Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Buffalo.
Kansas City at Cincinnati (-3)
Why Chiefs cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Tyler Thigpen has completed 62 percent of his passes for 895 yards and six TDs and one interception in his last four road games. Bengals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.
Why Bengals cover: Defense has held Washington and Cleveland to a total of 462 yards over the last two weeks. Cedric Benson is coming off a 171-yard game and goes against K.C.'s 30th ranked rush defense.
Total (37 1/2): Under is 7-2-1 in Bengals' last 10 home games and 4-1 in Chiefs' last five road games.
Detroit at Green Bay (-9 1/2)
Why Lions cover: Packers have lost five straight games. Calvin Johnson had 129 yards and two TDs in their last meeting and gets to test a banged up Green Bay secondary. Kevin Smith (884 yards, seven TDs) faces the Packers' 26th ranked rush defense.
Why Packers cover: Have won eight of last nine meetings. Detroit allows the most points per game (32.1) in the NFL. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Home team is 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 meetings. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Green Bay.
Total (43): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Chicago at Houston (-1)
Why Bears cover: Need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. Special teams play is dominating recent games. Matt Forte could have a big day against a suspect Houston defense.
Why Texans cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and 9-2 straight up in their last 11 home games. Andre Johnson is averaging 134.4 receiving yards per game at home this season. Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games.
Total (46 1/2): Under is 7-1 in Bears' last eight road games and 5-0 in Texans' last five games overall
Tennessee at Indianapolis (+3)
Why Titans cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Are expected to play most of their regulars while the Colts are expected to rest some of theirs.
Why Colts cover: Are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC. Titans are likely to be without Albert Haynesworth, Kevin Mawae and Kyle Vanden Bosch.
Total (38): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-6 1/2)
Why Giants cover: Have won three straight at Minnesota. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. The Vikings had seven fumbles last week and Adrian Peterson alone has fumbled five times in the last three games.
Why Vikings cover: Can clinch NFC North with victory. New York could rest some of its regulars including DE Justin Tuck and DT Fred Robbins who are dealing with injuries. Eli Manning has eight interceptions in his last two games against Minnesota.
Total (42): Under is 7-2 in Giants' last nine games as a road underdog.
Carolina at New Orleans (+3)
Why Panthers cover: Have won five of the last six meetings. Are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in New Orleans. Can clinch the NFC South with win. Road team is 14-2 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Stellar rushing attack could dominate Saints' defense that has allowed 33 offensive touchdowns.
Why Saints cover: Have only one loss at home this season. Are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games and 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. Drew Brees is trying to break Dan Marino's record for most passing yards in a season.
Total (53): Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-11)
Why Browns cover: Are 14-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Steelers could rest some starters for the playoffs. In Week 2 held Pittsburgh to 10 points as 6-point underdogs in an ATS win.
Why Steelers cover: Have won 15 of the past 16 meetings. Favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Cleveland has only scored a total of 31 points in its last five games. Recently signed Bruce Gradkowski is likely to start at QB for Cleveland.
Total (32): Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Pittsburgh.
Oakland at Tampa Bay (-13)
Why Raiders cover: Have won five of six regular season meetings. Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. With three straight losses, Tampa Bay is reeling and struggling to stay in the playoff picture.
Why Buccaneers cover: Need to win to keep playoff hopes alive. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Should have no problem moving the ball against Oakland's 27th ranked defense.
Total (38 1/2): Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers' last five home games and 6-1-1 in Raiders' last eight games overall.
St. Louis at Atlanta (-14)
Why Rams cover: Have won eight of last 10 meetings. Are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Steven Jackson should be healthy for this matchup and could exploit a Falcons defense that is allowing 121.6 rushing yards per game.
Why Falcons cover: Can still clinch NFC South title. Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Falcons are 9-1 at home this season.
Total (44): Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings and 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Atlanta
Jacksonville at Baltimore (-13)
Why Jaguars cover: Ravens can clinch a playoff spot if Patriots lose in the afternoon game. If that happens Baltimore could opt to rest its regulars. Defense playing well, could stuff Ravens' running game. Underdog is 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Why Ravens cover: Have won six of last seven meetings. Have not allowed more than 13 points in any game at home this season. Can guarantee a playoff spot with win. Are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
Total (35 1/2): Over is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings and 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Baltimore.
Washington at San Francisco (-3)
Why Redskins cover: Have won three of last four meetings and three straight at San Francisco. League's fourth-best defense could shut down Niners' inconsistent offense. Niners are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC.
Why 49ers cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Could get Frank Gore back from an ankle injury. Redskins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games. Jim Zorn's once-heralded offense has been sputtering in recent weeks.
Total (37): Under is 4-0-1 in Redskins' last five road games and 4-0 in 49ers' last four games overall.
Seattle at Arizona (-6)
Why Seahawks cover: Have won five of last seven meetings. Will want to play hard for coach Mike Holmgren who is retiring after this game. Are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC West and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Seneca Wallace (9 TDs, 1 INT) has filled in admirably for injured Matt Hasselbeck.
Why Cardinals cover: Coach Ken Whisenhunt expects to play his regulars for most of the game in hopes to get the struggling offense back on track in time for the playoffs. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Total (45): Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Arizona.
Miami at N.Y. Jets (-1)
Why Dolphins cover: Can clinch a playoff birth with win. Brett Favre (58.2 QB rating) has struggled the last four games. Chad Pennington would love to beat out the team that cut him in the offseason. Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Jets cover: Have won eight of last nine meetings. Miami's defense could be without starters Channing Crowder and Will Allen who are injured. Dolphins are 4-20-2 ATS in their last 26 meetings and 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in New York.
Total (41 1/2): Over is 4-0 in Jets' last four home games.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-1)
Why Cowboys cover: Need to win to secure a playoff spot. With Marion Barber banged up, Tashard Choice has racked up 424 yards and two TDs in the last three games. DeMarcus Ware has a chance to break Michael Strahan's single-season sack record. Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Why Eagles cover: Need a win to keep playoff hopes alive. Are averaging close to 30 points per game at home this season. Tony Romo has been struggling with turnovers that have cost Dallas a couple of games in recent weeks. Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
Total (42 1/2): Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.
Denver at San Diego (-9)
Why Broncos cover: Held LaDainian Tomlinson to 26 rushing yards in their last meeting. Will be inspired not to commit one of the biggest collapses in NFL history. Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
Why Chargers cover: Have won five of last eight meetings. Have outscored Denver 71-23 in the last two meetings at San Diego. Favorite is 5-2-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Denver's Matt Prater has struggled in recent weeks, missing eight of his last 20 field goals. Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Total (50): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.