CHICAGO (7 - 7) at GREEN BAY (13 - 1)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY
CHICAGO: 1-7 ATS off SU loss by 14+ as home favorite
GREEN BAY: 6-0 Under vs. Chicago
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 16 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
Chicago at Green Bay (-13)
Why Bears cover: Coach Lovie Smith will give fans a gift on Christmas Day by benching ineffective backup Caleb Hanie in favor of third-stringer Josh McCown. It can’t hurt, with Bears having lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) since Jay Cutler’s thumb injury. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this NFC North rivalry.
Why Packers cover: After dismal performance at Kansas City, where they suffered their first loss in more than a year, the Packers should be plenty motivated to get back on track and secure home field throughout playoffs. Green Bay’s a solid bounce-back bet, with ATS runs of 8-0 off a non-cover and 4-0 off a SU loss.
Total (44.5): Bears have mixed bag of over and under trends, while Packers are on over surges of 6-2 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, and 6-1 at Lambeau. But in this rivalry, the under has cashed eight straight times overall and four of the last five on Frozen Tundra.
NFL Week 16
Bears (7-7) @ Packers (13-1) - Now that Packers have a loss and already clinched home field thru NFC playoffs, not sure how much regulars play here; they won 27-17 at Chicago (-3.5) in Week 3, holding Bears to 13 rushing yards while forcing six 3/outs on 13 drives. Green Bay is 5-1 as home favorite this year, winning by 8-26-21-38-9-30 points. Punchless Bears lost last four games, by 5-7-3-24 points; they were held under 100 passing yards (88-86-89) in last three. Chicago is 2-3 as road dog this season, losing on foreign soil by 17-11-5-3 points- they scored total of 21 points in losing last three visits here by 34-6-7 points. Home favorites are 3-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games; over is 5-3 in NFC North games this year. Over is 5-2 in last seven Chicago games, 6-2 in Packers’ last eight games.
SNF - Bears at Packers
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Coming off its first loss of the season, Green Bay (13-1 straight up, 9-5 against the spread) will be in bounce-back mode for the first time since last December when it hosts arch-rival Chicago on Christmas night at Lambeau Field.
As of Sunday afternoon, most books were listing the Packers as 11½-point favorites with a total of 42. Gamblers can take Chicago (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) on the money line for a lucrative plus-425 return (risk $100 to win $425).
Mike McCarthy’s squad saw its 19-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 19-14 loss at Kansas City as an 11-point road ‘chalk.’ The 33 combined points easily stayed ‘under’ the 46-point total, as Green Bay was held to its lowest scoring output of the year (24 was the previous low).
Lovie Smith’s team has unfortunately seen its season unravel due to injuries. The Bears were in the process of improving to 7-3 in the fourth quarter of a 31-20 home win over San Diego on Nov. 20. However, when Jay Cutler threw an interception, he broke his thumb trying to make a tackle.
Since then, Chicago has been anemic offensively while losing four in a row both SU and ATS, including last week’s 38-14 home loss to Seattle. With back-up QB Caleb Hanie throwing nine interceptions compared to just three touchdown passes, Smith will turn to veteran journeyman Josh McCown to make his first start for the organization.
McCown, who is playing for his seventh different team, has a 35/39 career touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is making his first start since 2007.
Injuries have impacted Chicago’s offense at running back as well. Matt Forte, who was enjoying a monster campaign, went down with an MCL sprain in a Week 13 loss to Kansas City. Forte had already rushed for 997 yards and three TDs, in addition to making 52 catches for 490 yards and one score.
His replacement Mario Barber made costly mistakes in a loss at Denver, but he’s still a very capable back with loads of experience. However, a calf injury will keep him ‘out’ at Green Bay. Furthermore, two of the Bears’ best players, WR Devin Hester and LB Lance Briggs, are dealing with sprained ankles. Hester is going to play but Briggs is going to be a game-time decision (as of late Sunday afternoon).
The Packers are also dealing with injuries, as three offensive tackles are ‘out’ vs. the Bears. Derek Sherrod was lost for the season with a broken leg last week, while Chad Clifton (hamstring) and Bryan Bulaga (knee) have been ruled ‘out’ Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers is also going to be without his favorite target in WR Greg Jennings, who has nine TD catches. Jennings will most likely miss the rest of the regular season, but he’s expected to return for the playoffs.
Speaking of the postseason, Green Bay will clinch homefield throughout the playoffs with a win or a San Francisco loss a Seattle.
For the season, Rodgers has put up MVP-like numbers, throwing 40 TD passes compared to only six interceptions. He has 4,360 passing yards.
Green Bay is unbeaten in six home games, compiling a 5-1 spread record. In eight games as double-digit favorites (home and away), the Packers are 4-4 versus the number.
As for the Bears, they have gone 3-4 in seven games as underdogs. This is their first spot as double-digit puppies.
When these teams met at Soldier Field on Sept. 25, Green Bay captured a 27-17 win as a four-point road favorite. Rodgers threw for 297 yards and three TDs, as the Packers improved to 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Bears.
The ‘over’ is 9-5 overall for the Packers, 5-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, the Bears have watched the ‘over’ go 8-6 overall, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in their six road assignments. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight consecutive head-to-head meetings between these bitter division rivals.
NBC will have the telecast at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
Bears at Packers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)
THE STORY: With their dreams of a perfect season snuffed out, it's no secret what the Green Bay Packers want for Christmas – home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Packers can achieve that goal by snuffing out the reeling Chicago Bears on Sunday night – or it already may be settled by the time they wake up Christmas morning if the Seattle Seahawks can knock off the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday.
Should the Niners lose, Green Bay will secure the No. 1 overall seed and Packers coach Mike McCarthy will have the luxury of resting some of his key players. That's an option McCarthy would love to have after watching top wide receiver Greg Jennings and starting RT Bryan Bulaga sidelined the past two weeks with knee injuries.
LINE: The Packers opened at -13.5 and have been bet down to -11. The total has also fallen, coming down from 44.5 to 43 points.
WEATHER: Those bettors dreaming of a white Christmas won’t find it at Lambeau Field. While temperatures will be in the high 20s, there’s just a 14 percent chance of snow.
ABOUT THE BEARS (7-7, 7-7 ATS): Chicago has gone belly up since QB Jay Cutler suffered a broken thumb, absorbing four consecutive losses to put its postseason hopes on life support. The Bears finally pulled the plug on Caleb Hanie, who looked overmatched in his four-game stint. He had two interceptions returned for TDs last week as Seattle scored 31 unanswered points in a 38-14 win.
In a desperate measure, the Bears will start Josh McCown, who was coaching at the high school level last month and last started in the United Football League last year. McCown hasn’t started an NFL game since 2007, and his task won’t be any easier with RB Matt Forte sitting out a third straight game.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (13-1, 9-5 ATS): With Jennings out of the lineup, Aaron Rodgers had his roughest game of the season in Sunday’s 19-14 loss at Kansas City. He failed to throw multiple TD passes for the first time this season, completed fewer than half his passes and his 235 passing yards were a season low. It also represented the fewest points scored by Green Bay since a 10-3 victory over Chicago in the 2010 regular-season finale.
The running game should get a boost with the expected turn of James Starks, who has sat out the last two games with an ankle injury. Ryan Grant rushed for 151 yards while Starks was out, but he had a total of only 22 carries in the two games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Packers have beaten the Bears three straight, including a 21-14 win in last season’s NFC title game and a 27-17 victory earlier this season. The last two have been in Chicago.
2. McCown has appeared in 48 games with five different teams. He has thrown 35 TD passes and 41 interceptions in his career.
3. Rodgers broke the franchise record with his 40th TD pass last week, becoming the fifth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.
TRENDS:
* Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay.
* Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
PREDICTION: Packers 27, Bears 13. Green Bay sews up the No. 1 seed by beating Chicago at home for the fourth straight time.