GREEN BAY (4 - 2) at MINNESOTA (1 - 5) - 10/27/2013, 8:30 PM
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GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Green Bay at Minnesota
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS versus division opponents
Minnesota: 55-34 OVER in weeks 5 through 9
Green Bay @ Minnesota
The Packers come in 19-11 ATS Versus NFC opponents, 12-2 ATS versus divisional opponents, 9-3 ATS in October, 15-8 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins and 5-0 ATS the week before playing on Monday night. The Packers, hiwever are 0-6 ATS as road favorites of 6 points or more. Minnesota is 7-0 ATS versus opponents off a straight up win. Note the home team in Green Bay games is 12-1 ATS the last 13 and the home team in this series is 5-0 the last 5 meetings.
NFL Week 8
Packers (4-2) @ Vikings (1-5) — Newly acquired QB Freeman apparently got a concussion during Monday’s hideous (20-53 passing) loss in Swamp, so Ponder gets nod here, Vikings’ third different starting QB in last three games, 4th in last seven. How does team with Peterson at RB throw 53 passes and run only 14 times? Minnesota lost six of seven games to rival Packers, losing two of last three played here- they were -3 in turnovers in 24-10 playoff loss at Lambeau last January, game that Vikes outrushed Pack 167-76, but they completed only 11-30 passes as backup/current WR Webb QB’d that game. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both its losses, at SF/Cincy; they’re 3-0 since their bye, holding teams to 13 ppg (four TDs on 32 drives). Pack’s only road win in three tries was 19-17 (-3) at Baltimore when GB ran ball for 140 yards but kicked FG on both red zone drives. Minnesota had run ball for 126.8 ypg in 1-3 start, but to play so poorly in post-bye game and now to change QBs again, you have to wonder if anyone in Metrodome knows what they’re doing. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.
Armadillosports.com
Sunday Night Football Betting: Packers at Vikings
Covers.com
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5, 47)
Christian Ponder is expected back at quarterback when the Minnesota Vikings try to stun the visiting Green Bay Packers in Sunday night’s nationally televised contest. Recently acquired Josh Freeman bombed in his Minnesota debut and then was diagnosed with concussion-type symptoms, which is resulting in Ponder’s first start since Sept. 22. Green Bay has no such issues with Aaron Rodgers behind center, winning three consecutive games to lead the NFC North by a half-game over Chicago and Detroit.
Vikings receiver Greg Jennings, who played seven seasons with the Packers, sharply criticized Rodgers in the offseason but is taking a different approach leading up to his first game against his former team. “I can’t live in the past of what was said – I have to move on,” Jennings said in a conference call. “I know and you guys know that he’s a great quarterback.” Green Bay will be without several key players, including linebackers Clay Matthews (broken thumb) and Nick Perry (foot), tight end Jermichael Finley (neck) and receiver Randall Cobb (leg).
LINE: The Packers opened as 10-point road faves and are now -7.5. The total opened at 46.5 and is up to 47.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-2): Injuries to Cobb and James Jones (knee) opened the door for second-year receiver Jarrett Boykin, who had eight receptions for 103 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland last Sunday in his first NFL start. Rodgers has passed for 13 touchdowns against just four interceptions and the running game has been sparked by second-round pick Eddie Lacy, who has 301 rushing yards over the past three games and leads all NFL rookies with 352. Outside linebacker A.J. Hawk has been sensational with 54 tackles and three sacks but the Packers have forced just seven turnovers thus far.
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-5): The return of Ponder (five interceptions and only two touchdowns) makes three different starting quarterbacks in three games after Matt Cassel two weeks ago and Freeman in last Monday night’s loss to the previously winless New York Giants. Reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson, who is seventh in the NFL with 511 rushing yards despite an ailing hamstring, had a season-low 28 yards against the Giants while Jennings has struggled to make an impact with 24 receptions for 327 yards. Defensive end Jared Allen has four sacks but the defense is ranked just 27th by allowing 391.2 yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in Minnesota.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Vikings last four home games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Minnesota recorded a 37-34 victory last Dec. 30 behind 199 rushing yards by Peterson to snap a five-game regular-season skid against Green Bay.
2. The Packers have allowed less than 85 rushing yards in each of their last four games and rank third in the NFL in rushing defense (79 per game).
3. Peterson rushed for 409 yards in two regular-season games against Green Bay last season but was limited to 99 in Minnesota’s playoff loss to the Packers.
SNF - Packers at Vikings
By Sportsbook.ag
GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Green Bay -9.5 & 47.5
Opening Line & Total: Packers -6.5 & 46.5
The Vikings play their second straight primetime game when they host the injury-riddled Packers on Sunday night.
Minnesota played the Giants in what was a sloppy Monday night affair, losing 23-7 after turning the ball over three times and putting up just 206 total yards of offense. QB Josh Freeman's awful performance coupled with an apparent concussion has the Vikings turning the offense back over to QB Christian Ponder, their Week 1 starter. Green Bay has a whole slew of injuries to top receivers, with WR Randall Cobb (fibula), TE Jermichael Finley (neck) and WR James Jones (knee) all out, but the team has still won three straight contests and will get back its top CB in Casey Hayward (hamstring) on Sunday night as well.
The Packers improved to 3-2-1 ATS on the season with last week's 31-13 rout of the Browns, but are 0-2-1 ATS on the road. They are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in this series since 2010, but the lone SU loss was a 37-34 defeat at Minnesota in Week 17 last year, which allowed the Vikings to make the playoffs, where they lost 24-10 in Green Bay a week later. The Packers are 18-8 ATS (69%) after the first month of the season over the last three years and they are 13-2 ATS (87%) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games since 1992. But Minnesota is 6-0 ATS versus poor kickoff coverage teams (24+ yards per return) in the past two seasons, and benefits from the fact that favorites coming off a win by 14+ points against an opponent with two straight double-digit losses are just 10-32 ATS (24%) over the past 10 seasons.
The Packers have now won three straight games despite battling through a number of injuries. QB Aaron Rodgers was on his game against Cleveland on Sunday as he threw for 260 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. That gives Rodgers 1,906 passing yards this season with 13 TD and just 4 INT. He has always played well in this series too, with a 71% completion rate, 2,823 passing yards, 24 TD and just 4 INT in 10 career starts versus Green Bay. Rodgers will be without many of his favorite targets against the Vikings, but WR Jarrett Boykin seems to be more than ready to step in and make up the loss. Last week, the undrafted second-year pro caught eight passes for 103 yards and a touchdown, and will start Sunday's game alongside top WR Jordy Nelson, who is enjoying a fine season with 32 catches for 526 yards (16.4 avg.) and 5 TD.
A big reason the Packers have been able to win despite the receiver injuries is the emergence of rookie RB Eddie Lacy, who has rushed for an NFL-best 301 yards over the past three games on a solid 4.4 YPC. Last week he also caught five passes for 26 yards, showing he can help Rodgers through the air with their receivers down. Green Bay's rushing defense will have the tough task of stopping Adrian Peterson, but it appears they are ready for the challenge as they have allowed just 79.0 rushing YPG and 3.4 yards per carry, which both rank 3rd in the NFL.
Green Bay's struggling secondary has allowed 267 passing YPG (24th in NFL), but the return of CB Casey Hayward will give his team a significant boost, especially in the red zone where the Packers rank last in the NFL with a 71% efficiency rate on defense. Although Green Bay's best pass rusher, OLB Clay Matthews (thumb) remains out, the team has still be able to rack up 17 sacks in the past four games. That has helped compensate for a defense that has forced one turnover or less in five of six contests in 2013.
The Vikings turned to QB Josh Freeman as their starting quarterback against the Giants and he came away with a memorable performance. Unfortunately for Minnesota, that performance will remembered as one of the worst of all time as Freeman went 20-for-53 for 190 yards and an interception. Freeman's 37.7% completion rate was the worst in the NFL for a passer who attempted over 40 attempts in six years.
But having suffered a concussion in the game, the team will turn back to QB Christian Ponder, who is 0-3 as a starter this year with a 59% completion rate, 6.9 YPA, 2 TD and 5 INT. He has also been wildly inaccurate versus the Packers in four career starts (47.9% completion rate), but had a huge game against them in Week 17 of last year with 234 passing yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. RB Adrian Peterson has also run all over Green Bay in a dozen career games, piling up 1,442 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. But last week Peterson struggled (28 yards on 13 carries) as the Giants loaded up the box, which is likely going to happen again.
Vikings WR Greg Jennings, a long-time Packers player, was targeted 10 times in the last game and should maintain a large workload with Ponder, as the duo has connected on 11 of the 17 passes for a strong 14.6 yards per reception. Although Minnesota's defense has allowed the sixth-most yards in the NFL (391 YPG), and fourth-most points (30.2 PPG), a big part of that is a terrible offense that has put the defense on the field for a league-high 34:10 this season. One positive for this Vikings team is that they have defended the run well all season. Minnesota is allowing just 102.3 yards per game on the ground (14th in NFL), and just 3.6 yards per carry (7th in league). Stopping the red-hot Eddie Lacy is going to be crucial on Monday, as will pressuring Aaron Rodgers, who the Vikings have compiled 35 sacks over the past nine times they have faced him.