Sunday Night Football Week 10

Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall

NEW ENGLAND at PITTSBURGH... Dating back to ‘01 AFC title game, these two "over" in 6 of last 7 meetings. Steel "over" 51-28 last 79 at Heinz Field though trend not as pronounced for Tomlin (16-14). Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
By Vince Akins

Patriots at Steelers - The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since October 22, 2000 on the road when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0-1 ATS (5.2 ppg) since October 25, 1992 as a dog after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since September 11, 2000 as a road dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since November 11, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (12.9 ppg) since November 12, 1995 as a dog when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.

Patriots (6-2) @ Steelers (6-2)

No team has run ball for more than 75 yards vs. Steelers this year, will be up to Brady to move ball thru air here, but only once in last five games have Pats averaged more than 5.7 yards/pass attempt, which isn’t very good- they miss deep threat Moss provided. You think of Pittsburgh as running team, but in last five games, they haven’t run ball for more than 121 yards; they hung on for dear life vs. Bengals Monday night when they couldn’t run out clock on ground. NE won four of last five visits here, but this is first time here since ’05. Pitt is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; this is just second home game this year for Big Ben. Pats scored 14 points in both their losses. Over is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 6-2 in Patriot games.

Power Play Wins

Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5

Wunderdog

New England +4.5

Don Wallace Sports

4* New England +4.5

Matt Fargo

GOM - New England

National Sports Service

3* Pittsburgh -4½

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 Units Pats +5

KELSO

50 Units Steelers -4.5

Brett Atkins

Patriots

Jim Feist

10* New England

PPP

2% Pittsburgh

Blazer

4* New England

Joe D

20* New England

Lenny Stevens

10* Pittsburgh

Mike Neri

3* New England

Larry Ness

8* Pittsburgh

Joseph D'Amico

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: New England Patriots +4½

Three teams are tied for the best record in the AFC. The Jets are one of them. The other two are facing eachother here. This is a game that very well may decide home field in the AFC title game. New England was riding a 5 game win streak until last weeks meltdown in Cleveland. The Patriots are #1 in the NFL in scoring at 27.4 PPG. Tom Brady is playing as good as ever. The QB has tallied 1826 YP and 14 TDs. He has 2 great receivers in Welker and Hernandez (791 YR and 5 TDs combined). The running game is solid with Green Ellis and Woodhead. They also are most-likely getting back Fred Taylor. Outside of LWs loss, the “D” hasn’t given up more than 20 in their L4 previous games. They face a Pittsburgh team that has really been lackluster over their L3 games despite being 2-1 in those contests. The Steelers “D” is ranked #1 in the NFL but has given up 63 points their L3 outings. At times the offense looks stagnant. Since his return, Ben Rothlisberger has tossed 6 TDs and 3 INTs. He is surely missing traded WR Santonio Holmes. The squad has a slew injured players listed as questionable. New England HC Bill Bellichik will be ready for Pitts zone blitz, leaving it up to the sputtering Steelers offense. The ‘dog in this series is 8-2 ATS their L10 meetings. The Pats are 7-2 ATS their L9 vs. the Steelers while Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS their L6 as a home favorite. Take New England.

Sixth Sense

3% PITTSBURGH -4.5

PITTSBURGH -4.5 New England 45

NE was caught off guard in Cleveland, losing 34-14. They were out gained 5.2ypr to 3.4ypr, out passed 9.2yps to 5.5yps and out gained overall, 6.4yppl to 4.8yppl, despite throwing the ball 20 more times than Cleveland and running the ball 24 times less. Pittsburgh jumped on Cincinnati early and never let them back in the game. They out rushed Cincinnati, 3.8ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed Cincinnati 6.7yps to 5.5yps and out gained them overall, 5.1yppl to 4.7yppl. New England averages 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, passes for 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 4.2ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh averages 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 2.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Pittsburgh qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 387-245-18 and 156-80-8. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by nine points and predict about 48 points. Very hard for me to respect NE and I believe this is a bad match up for the Patriots. Since last year NE hasn't performed nearly as well on the road against good teams, losing at the Jets, Denver (who was a good team at the time), Indianapolis (they should have won that game), New Orleans and Houston. This year they have followed that up with losses at the Jets and although they won at SD, they were badly out gained in that game 5.1yppl to 3.1yppl but survived because of SD turnovers. Tom Brady is averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt on the road and Brady's numbers are much worse since letting Randy Moss go. Steelers offense is better and the defense is significantly better than NE. Because of the poor pass defense of the Patriots I would expect the Steelers to be able to run the ball and hit some big plays up top as well or vice versa, meaning they start up top and then run the ball. If Pittsburgh wasn't banged up on the offensive line, I would make this play stronger. PITTSBURGH 31 NEW ENGLAND 17