Sunday Night Football Week 12

NFL Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

SAN DIEGO at INDIANAPOLIS...Chargers have been a tough nut for Peyton Manning to crack, as Bolts are 4-2 SU and 5-1 vs. line against Indy since 2004. SD has also covered last three trips to Indy, though Colts 7-2 vs. line last 9 as host. Norv "over" 20-10 since late 2008. Bolts 13-5 as dog since 2005 for Marty and Norv. Tech edge-Chargers and "over," based on series and Norv "totals" trends.

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
By Vince Akins

Chargers at Colts - The Chargers are 7-0-2 ATS (8.1 ppg) since November 09, 2003 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Colts are 7-0-2 ATS (8.9 ppg) since September 26, 1999 within 3 of pick after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Colts are 6-0 ATS (5.3 ppg) since November 02, 2003 within 3 of pick when they get a team off a Monday Night game. The Chargers are 6-0-1 OU (6.3 ppg) since December 03, 1995 the week after playing on Monday Night Football against a divisional opponent. The Colts are 0-7-1 OU (-12.9 ppg) since December 09, 1990 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent.

Sunday Night Football: Chargers at Colts

There has been plenty of praise for Peyton Manning's ability to carry an Indianapolis Colts offense that has been decimated by injuries.

Blasphemous as it may sound, there's another NFL quarterback who is doing a bit more with a bit less than Manning this season.

A marquee quarterback matchup will be on tap when Philip Rivers leads the resurgent San Diego Chargers into Indianapolis on Sunday night to face Manning and the Colts.

Odds

Oddsmakers opened the line for Sunday Night Football with the Colts as 3-point home favorites. However, sharp action dropped the spread below the key field-goal number to 2.5. About 61 percent of action has been on Indianapolis as of Saturday afternoon.

The total opened at 51.5 and has remained steady heading into Sunday.

New kid in town

While much attention has been focus on Manning's ability to keep the Colts (6-4, 6-3-1 ATS) in contention despite injuries that have ravaged his receiving corps and backfield, the four-time Most Valuable Player has nothing on Rivers.

After the Chargers came out of the gate with a typical slow start to the season, stumbling to a 2-5 record, Rivers has guided San Diego (5-5, 5-5 ATS) to three straight victories and back in the mix in the AFC West.

Injuries and holdouts have also crippled the Chargers' offense. Their two leading receivers, Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee, have been sidelined multiple games by hamstring injuries.

Tight end Antonio Gates, who was off to a superb start to the season with nine touchdown passes in eight games, is likely to miss his third consecutive contest Sunday with a torn plantar fascia.

And rookie running back Ryan Mathews, the team's first-round draft choice, also has been hindered by injuries, missing two games and earning double-digit carries in just three contests.

Despite it all, Rivers leads the league in yards passing (3,177) and touchdowns (23) and is second to Michael Vick in passer rating (105.0). He already had five 300-yard passing games on the season.

During the three-game winning streak, Rivers has been magnificent with 10 scoring passes against three interceptions, including back-to-back games of four touchdown passes in his last two outings.

He carved up Denver in a 35-14 rout on Monday night to get San Diego back to the .500 mark.

The Chargers’ vaunted passing game will get a major boost Sunday with the return of Pro Bowler Vincent Jackson, who will make his season debut after sitting out the first 10 games due to a contract squabble and suspension.

Jackson has recorded consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to go with 16 touchdown receptions over the past two seasons, and hr gives Rivers a big target with his imposing 6-5, 245-pound frame.

Colts collapse?

Manning is No. 2 in the league in passing yards (3,059) despite having to go without two of his favorite targets in tight end Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. Clark is done for the season while Collie has been in and out of the lineup. He will sit out Sunday with concussion-like symptoms.

Running back Joseph Addai has missed the last four games with a neck injury and likely will sit out again Sunday. His backups also have been hurting, forcing Manning to go to the air at least 43 times in seven games this season.

The Colts have lost two of their last three, come up short in shootouts with the Philadelphia Eagles (26-24) three weeks ago and New England Patriots (31-28) last week.

The Chargers have won four of the past five meetings between the clubs.

Trends

- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Indianapolis.
- Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
- Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
- Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Tips and Trends

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

CHARGERS: San Diego has won a season best 3 consecutive games, as they work themselves back into the playoff chase after yet another poor start to the season. The Chargers are 5-5 both SU and ATS this season, with the exact same result in each game played this season. San Diego has really struggled on the road, going just 1-4 both SU and ATS. Tonight will mark the 1st time this season that San Diego is the listed underdog. QB Phillip Rivers is having one of the best seasons any QB has ever had in he NFL. Rivers has thrown for nearly 3,200 YDS while completing better than 65% of his passes. Rivers has also thrown 23 TD's this season, and has a QB Rating of 105 this year. RB Mike Tolbert has really come on of late, giving the Chargers a smashmouth RB that can pick up key short yardage. San Diego is scoring 27.4 PPG, 3rd most in the NFL. The Chargers defense has been fantastic in their own right, allowing an NFL low 270.7 YPG this season. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 17-6-3 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. The Chargers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. San Diego is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Chargers are 6-0 ATS last 6 games played in November.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - WR Vincent Jackson (suspension) is probable.

Projected Score: 20

COLTS: (-3, O/U 51.5) Indianapolis is coming off a heartbreaking road loss to New England, in which Peyton Manning threw an INT in the final minute. The Colts are no doubt excited to be back at home, where they are a perfect 4-0 SU. Indianapolis is 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS overall this season. The Colts have really struggled when playing the Chargers of late, losing 4 of their past 5 meetings SU. In all but one of those cases, Indianapolis was the listed favorite. Manning has thrown for more than 3,000 YDS this season with 20 TD's. The Colts are averaging 26.8 PPG this year, 4th most in the NFL. Manning will have to have another big game if the Colts are to beat what is widely considered to be their arch nemesis. Indianapolis has been rather inconsistent defensively this season. The Colts are allowing 21.6 PPG and 345 YPG this year. The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in November. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. The Colts are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games as the listed favorite. Indianapolis is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the AFC.

Colts are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games as the home favorite.

Key Injuries - RB Joseph Addai (shoulder) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)

SNF - Chargers at Colts
By Chris David

Sunday’s pro football slate finishes strong in Week 12 as Indianapolis (6-4 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) squares off against San Diego (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) from Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts opened as three-point home favorites but this line has dropped down to one at a few offshore books that cater to sharp action.

What’s the reason for the move? For starters, San Diego is putting together its annual second-half surge after getting out of the gates slow. Norv Turner and the Chargers opened the season 2-3 but have since won and covered three straight contests. The club still trails Kansas City (6-4) by one game in the AFC West and they’re just 1-2 in the division.

Quarterback Philip Rivers is putting up monster numbers (3,177 yards, 23 TDs) this season, which includes a 10-2 touchdown-interception ratio during the team’s three-game winning streak. And the former N.C. State standout is doing it without any serious weapons. All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates (foot) is listed as ‘questionable’ while receiver Patrick Crayton (wrist) is ‘out’ and running back Ryan Mathews (ankle) is ‘doubtful.’ Rivers will have WR Vincent Jackson in the lineup after a holdout and three-game suspension. It will be surprising to see if he’s ready but he has scored 16 touchdowns in the last two seasons with San Diego.

Another factor in the line move could be the head-to-head history between these AFC contenders.

San Diego vs. Indianapolis (2004-2009)
Date Matchup ATS Result Total Result
Jan. 3, 2009 Indianapolis 17 at San Diego 23 (OT) Chargers +1.5 UNDER (49)
Nov. 23, 2008 Indianapolis 23 at San Diego 20 Colts +3 UNDER (48.5)
Jan. 13, 2008 San Diego 28 at Indianapolis 24 Chargers +10.5 OVER (46)
Nov. 11, 2007 Indianapolis 21 at San Diego 23 Chargers +3.5 UNDER (47)
Dec. 18, 2005 San Diego 26 at Indianapolis 17 Chargers +7 UNDER (53)
Dec. 26, 2004 San Diego 31 at Indianapolis 34 (OT) Chargers +7 OVER (56)

As you can see above, San Diego has won four of the past six meetings and they covered five of those. Drew Brees was the QB for the Bolts in the 2004 and 2005 encounters, which makes Rivers 3-1 as a starter against Colts QB Peyton Manning.

Historically, the Chargers defense has done well against Manning, who has a 77.5 career passer rating against San Diego. Some point to the 3-4 scheme and different looks, but gamblers should make a note that the Bolts’ defense doesn’t have the same faces on their roster. A couple big names that gave Manning fits in the past were DB Antonio Cromartie and defensive linemen Shawn Merriman and Jamal Williams.

Manning is arguably the best signal caller in the league and he’s not even playing with a loaded roster this season either. However, he still makes some silly mistakes and it was evident in last week’s loss to the Patriots (28-31). It’s hard to knock Manning for tossing four touchdowns and 396 yards, but he had three interceptions and the last one was costly. Indy had a great chance to at least force overtime and perhaps win outright after trailing by 17 late in the fourth.

Gamblers now ask themselves if Manning and the Colts lose two in a row when San Diego visits tonight. VegasInsider.com handicapper Matt Fargo helps you answer that question. Fargo explained, “You would think the Colts would be strong coming off a close loss but in fact is it just the opposite as they are 5-16 against the spread in their last 21 games following a loss of six points or less. The Chargers meanwhile are good at keeping the momentum rolling as they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after two or more consecutive wins.”

This year, Indy hasn’t lost straight up after its first three losses and it does own a 2-1 record against the spread, so Fargo’s numbers are obviously from previous seasons. And it could be 3-0 ATS but the Colts failed to cover the number (-7) in a 23-17 win over the Bengals a couple weeks ago. The line for tonight is much shorter and it is hard to ignore that San Diego is 1-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the lone win came at Houston (29-23) and those watching that game know the Bolts were fortunate.

Another constant factor for Indy off a loss this season has been its defense, which has surrendered 14, 9 and 17. Holding the Chargers in this range would be a great feat but the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout here, with the total hovering between 50 and 51. The Colts have watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 at home, yet the Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 away from home. In the previous six head-to-head battles, the ‘under’ has produced a 4-2 record.

Bettors who fancy future action might want to gander at the adjusted odds at Sportsbook.com. Deservingly, the Jets (5/2) and Patriots (5/2) are the co-favorites to win the AFC while the Ravens (7/2) and Steelers (7/2) are right behind. And then there are the Colts and Chargers, who are both listed at 7/1. If both of these teams earn a spot into the postseason, it will likely be as division which means they’ll earn a home game in the first round. If they get in and past those opening affairs, anything is possible.

Tonight’s contest kicks off at 8:20 p.m. EST, with NBC providing national coverage. Some trends that have stuck out this season in this primetime slot are listed below:

# The home team has gone 8-4 both SU and ATS
# Favorites have gone 6-5-1 ATS
# Total players have watched the ‘over’ go 7-5
# Indy has gone 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS on SNF this season

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