Colts at Redskins: What Bettors Need to Know
The surprising Redskins will look to remain atop the NFC East when they host Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night.
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
The Washington Redskins managed to slow one of the league's best offenses last week. They will be hard pressed to do it again.
Washington (3-2) has faced a slew of potent offenses this season in the Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers, which is among the reasons the Redskins have surrendered more yards than any team in the league.
Most troubling for Washington is a pass defense that ranks 30th out of 32 teams, an ominous sign with Manning coming to town.
Still, the Colts respect the one stat Washington’s defense excels at – points allowed. The Skins are giving up an average of just 18 points per game, good for the ninth best mark in the NFL.
"I'm pretty sure any coach would tell you that points are all that matters," Manning Redskin beat reporters. "It's the same thing on the offensive side.
"If you're moving the ball and have a ton of yards, but not scoring touchdowns in the red zone, it doesn't really matter. So, that's the bottom line. They're not giving up points, keeping teams out of the end zone, holding some good offenses, too. They held Green Bay and held Philadelphia to 12. That's good defense."
GIDDY UP
The Colts (3-2) are the league's second-highest scoring team with 136 points, although they struggled in a 19-9 home victory over the Kansas City Chiefs last week.
Manning failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season and finished 26 of 44 for 244 yards and an interception.
Despite playing with a running game that has been abysmal, Manning already has a pair of 300-yard games and a 400-yard performance this season.
A lack of offensive balance has forced Manning to attempt over 40 passes in each of the last three games. He is third in the league with 1,609 yards and has thrown 11 touchdown passes against only two interceptions.
POINT OF ATTACK
Indianapolis’ defense, which had been mauled in road losses to AFC South rivals Houston and the Jacksonville Jaguars, held the Chiefs to three field goals and 261 total yards.
The biggest problem for Indy has been an inability to stop the run, which the Redskins will likely try to exploit to keep Manning off the field.
Running back Ryan Torain struggled in his first start in place of an injured Clinton Portis, rushing for just 40 yards on 16 carries in last week’s 16-13 overtime victory over Green Bay.
Donovan McNabb threw for 357 yards on 26-of-49 passing last week, including a 48-yard scoring strike to Anthony Armstrong in the fourth quarter to get the Redskins back in the game. Santana Moss added seven receptions for 188 yards.
In his first season with Washington, McNabb’s numbers have not been great. He’s completing just 56.5 percent of his passes and has thrown four touchdown passes and three interceptions. But he supplies a big-play threat that has been lacking with the Redskins in recent seasons.
INJURY REPORT
The Colts hope to have starting running back Joseph Addai back on the field Sunday night. The versatile back left last week’s game with a shoulder injury after Chiefs lineman Glenn Dorsey pancaked him into the turf.
"It's just a little sore," Addai told the Indianapolis Star on Thursday. "I practiced (Wednesday) and felt good. Sunday's a long time from now, so I should be good."
Washington is expected to have both of its starting offensive tackles in the lineup against the Colts. Rookie left tackle Trent Williams missed two games because of a knee injury while right tackle Jamaal Brown didn’t play in the second half last week against Green Bay due to a pain in his knee.
Both players practiced and are expected to go, which is great news for a Washington offensive line that will have its hands full against Colts defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
"It's nerve-wracking," Williams told the Washington Examiner about trying to block Freeney. "You definitely think about it before you go to sleep at night. He's that dominant of a player. What I've seen so far, I haven't seen anybody like him."
WEATHER REPORT
There’s a zero percent chance of rain and the game-time temperature should be in the mid 60s. The wind isn’t expected to be a major factor either.
SNF - Colts at Redskins
By Kevin Rogers
The home underdog has turned into an extremely profitable play this season in the NFL, as another live 'dog takes the field on Sunday night when the surprising Redskins host the Colts. Indianapolis is stuck in a logjam inside the AFC South, as the Colts try to avoid its third road loss of the season. Washington, meanwhile, continues to cash when receiving points fresh off last week's comeback victory over Green Bay.
Mike Shanahan's Redskins have been listed as a favorite only once through the first five weeks, falling by two touchdowns at St. Louis in Week 3. However, when Washington is getting points, the Redskins are 3-0-1 ATS, including close wins over Dallas, Philadelphia, and Green Bay. The overtime triumph against the Packers was the most memorable victory, as Washington held Green Bay to three points in the final 44 minutes after falling behind 10-0. Donovan McNabb threw for 357 yards, but the big play was LaRon Landry's interception of Aaron Rodgers to help set up the game-winning field goal to come out on top, 16-13.
The Colts struggled offensively last week against the Chiefs, but Indianapolis handed Kansas City its first loss of the season with a 19-9 home win. Jim Caldwell's club covered as seven-point favorites thanks to Mike Hart's touchdown run with four minutes remaining. The Colts' defense held the Chiefs out of the end zone, a nice change from the 31 points that Indianapolis allowed in the Week 4 setback at Jacksonville.
Indianapolis has seen its share of issues away from Lucas Oil Stadium, dropping two of three road games. The Colts gave up a ton of yards rushing in losses at Houston (257 yards) and Jacksonville (174 yards), despite averaging 26.3 ppg on the road. The only away victory for Indianapolis came against the pass-happy Broncos, while limiting Denver to just 47 yards on the ground. The Colts' defense did allow the NFL's leading passer Kyle Orton to dice up Indianapolis with 476 yards through the air, but Indy came through with a 27-13 win as 5 ½-point favorites.
The concern with backing the Redskins is to make sure this team can put up the necessary points to beat the explosive Colts. Washington has scored 17 points or less in four games, but has managed to win three times, all as an underdog. The only game in which the Redskins' offense busted out was the Week 2 overtime loss to the Texans, as Washington blew a 17-point lead in a 30-27 setback.
Home 'dogs have been fantastic for bettors this season, owning a 19-10-1 ATS mark (65%), including a 3-1 ATS record last week with Washington, Oakland, and Arizona all winning outright. In a league where not every result can be explained, the Raiders and Cardinals picked up wins via special teams and defensive touchdowns, which are extremely difficult to handicap.
The Colts were money in the bank last season when laying points on the road, compiling a 6-1 ATS record. It hasn't been the same result this season, with Indianapolis failing to cover two of three road games, while the 'under' has hit in the two defeats.
With Washington catching points again this week, VI's Chris David wonders if the Redskins can keep up their winning ways as an underdog, "Washington is 3-2 and you could make a case that they should be 4-1 or 0-5. That's how the NFL works sometimes. In terms of defensive yardage (410 YPG), the Redskins are the worst and the offense has trouble moving the chains too. Yet, coach Shanahan has the team at 3-2 and with a win here, the 'Skins will be in first place or at least tied for the lead."
On the flip side, David believes the Colts have to step up their suspect defense to succeed in the Nation's Capital, "I understand Indianapolis has Peyton Manning, but laying points on the road with a team that has gone 1-2 both SU and ATS is never a sound investment. And if you look at the win at Denver (27-13), it was totally misleading. The Broncos racked up 500-plus yards and they failed to get points on five trips inside the red zone. And even though Manning is the best, you don't bet on one player. You bet on a team and while it may not sound logical, Indianapolis can actually afford to lose this game since it's a non-conference affair and a loss would only set them back two in the AFC South, if that."
The Colts are listed as a three-point favorite in most spots, as you'll have to lay some extra juice unless the line gets bumped up to 3½. The total is set at 44 across the board after opening at 44½ to start the week. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on NBC.
vegasinsider.com
Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall
INDIANAPOLIS at WASHINGTON... Colts 1-2 vs. line as road chalk TY after 6-2 mark in role a year ago. Indy also "over" 7-2 last 9 reg.-season games. Shan 2-1 vs. line at home TY but his Broncos and Skin teams just 14-24 vs. spread last 38 as host. Tech edge-Colts and slight to "over," based on team and Shan and "totals" trends.
NFL Week 6 Analysis
Colts (3-2) @ Redskins (3-2) - Washington allowed 7-12-13 points in its three wins, 30-30 in losses; two of their three home games went OT, with underdog 2-0-1 vs. spread in those games. Skins had been outscored 52-13 in second half of games this year before rallying from down 13-3 in 4th quarter last week to steal win from Packers. Indy allowed 257-174 rushing yards in its two losses, average of 93.3 in its wins- offense didn’t score TD vs. Chiefs last week until final 5:00. Home team won six of last seven games in what used to be regional rivalry; Colts lost last five visits here last here in ’02), with last win by Johnny U’s ’67 Baltimore Colt team that was unbeaten going to season’s final week. Indy is 5-1 in last six pre-bye games, with four of five wins by 18+ points. AFC South teams are 6-1 vs. spread in non-divisional road games; NFC East home teams are 3-5.
Tips and Trends
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins
COLTS: (-3, O/U 43.5) Whenever you play Indianapolis, you must be ready to deal with QB Peyton Manning and his passing attack. This year is no exception, as Manning is tied for the NFL in passing TD's and 3rd in passing YPG. Manning has 11 TD's and has thrown for more than 1,600 YDS. Manning's main target has been WR Reggie Wayne, who has 531 YDS receiving, 2nd most in the NFL. Wayne isn't the only receiving threat, as there are numerous others including TE Dallas Clark. Despite an elite passing attack, Indianapolis has one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL. The Colts are averaging 79.8 rushing YPG this season, 4st worst in the NFL. Defensively, the Colts will have to play better on the road as they've allowed 2 of their 3 opponents to score more than 30 PTS. Indianapolis has struggled playing in Washington, as they haven't won SU in their past 5 games playing in Washington D.C., dating back to 1969. The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. The Colts are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win.
Colts are 7-2 ATS last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-2 last 7 games in October.
Key Injuries - WR Austin Collie (foot) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)
REDSKINS: Washington is at the top of the competitive NFC East division standings with an overall record of 3-2 both SU and ATS this year. The Redskins have had some improbable wins this season, thanks to twice as many takeaways than giveaways. This Redskins team has a winning record despite have the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. Washington is allowing opponents to average 410 YPG, one of only 2 teams allowing more than 400 YPG. Thanks to their takeaways, Washington is allowing 18.4 PPG, 9th best in the NFL. The Redskins have played a brutal schedule this year, as they will be playing their 5th game this season as the listed underdog. QB Donovan McNabb has done a great job leading this Redskins team, as they finally have the leader they've desperately needed. McNabb has thrown for more than 1,300 YDS this season, including 4 TD's. Washington is averaging 249 YPG through the air, 7th best in the NFL. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win. Washington is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games.
Redskins are 7-15 ATS last 22 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 13-5 last 18 home games.
Key Injuries - DT Albert Haynesworth (personal) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 2) at WASHINGTON (3 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
INDIANAPOLIS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 18 games at home
INDIANAPOLIS at WASHINGTON
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 ATS Away if total is 42.5 to 45
WASHINGTON: 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards
Special K
Colts
Street Rosenthal
*200 Indianapolis Colts -3
Wildcat
5* Wash
Joseph D'Amico
Indianapolis Colts -3
Bobby Maxwell
500-Unit Indianapolis Colts
DOUBLE DRAGON
REDSKINS +3
Jack Jones
Indianapolis Colts -3
Brandon Lang
Indianapolis Colts
KIKI SPORTS
1 Unit Washington +3
Wayne Root
No Limit GOM - Washington Redskins
Rocketman
3* Indianapolis Colts -3
KELSO
15 Units Indy -3
The Prez
5* Colts
Rainman
3* Indy
Northcoast
Marquee: Indy
PPP
3% Indy
Larry Ness
10* Colts
Al DeMarco
5 Units Colts