Dr. Guru
12* New England -9
Allan Eastman
$600.00 #117 Atlanta (+3) over Minnesota
I am not a big believer in Tarvaris Jackson and after four straight wins I think that the Vikings are going to fall. Atlanta has been a very strong underdog this year – especially against NFC North teams. They are 3-0 ATS against the North and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Vikings.
$600.00 ‘Over’ 44.0 Arizona at New England
Arizona’s defense has sprung a leak. The Cardinals have given up 35 or more points in three of their last four games and have held just two of their last nine opponents below 20 points. New England’s defense hasn’t been much better, allowing less than 26 points just once in the last five weeks. Both teams throw the ball a lot and can score points in a hurry.
$2000.00 #107 Miami (-4) over Kansas City
I don’t know how the Chiefs rebound from their collapse last week against the Chargers. The only teams that the Chiefs have played well against are those within their division. They are 0-8 SU against nondivisional teams and have lost those games by an average of 15.8 points. Miami missed my GOTY last week by an inch. They start to earn it back for me today!
Dr. Bob
NEW ENGLAND (-8.0) 26 Arizona 20
I know Arizona is pretty much locked into their playoff seed, but the only player of consequence that probably won’t play in this game is WR Anquan Boldin and the Cardinals are a better team than Arizona even without Boldin. Boldin missed two games earlier in the season (week 5 and 6) and the Arizona’s compensated passing stats were 0.8 yards per pass play worse in those two games than they are for the season. But, even if quarterback Kurt Warner is 0.8 yppp worse than normal he will still be 0.2 yppp better than average (he averaged 6.6 yppp in those 2 games without Boldin, against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) and the Cardinals would still be 0.1 yards per play better than average (rather than their +0.6 yppl season rating). New England’s defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team, and the Patriots are particularly bad defending the pass (6.7 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppp against an average team). Warner and the Cardinals should move the ball well even without Boldin and my math model favors New England by just 2 ½ points in this game. The pointspread in this game is just stupid and assumes that Arizona simply won’t play hard, which is unlikely the case. I’d love to bet the Cardinals here based on the line value but they apply to a negative 29-74-2 ATS late season angle. I’ll still lean with Arizona even with the negative situation.
Miami (-3.5) 22 KANSAS CITY 21
Miami probably needs to win here to given themselves a good shot at making the playoffs, but needing to play well and playing well are two completely different things. Kansas City is only 2-12 but the Chiefs are no longer a pushover since switching to a spread offense in week 8 to better suit the skills of rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen. Kansas City has averaged a healthy 5.7 yards per play and 22.4 points in 8 games running the spread offense and they’re 6-2 ATS in those games. My math model favors Miami by only 2 ½ points using the Chiefs’ offensive stats since week 8 and Kansas City applies to a solid 203-124-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. It’s also supposed to be nasty weather in Kansas City this weekend and Miami quarterback Chad Pennington doesn’t have the arm strength to perform well in bad conditions, which is why he struggled so much late in the season during his years with the Jets in cold and windy New Jersey. Pennington has enjoyed mostly very good weather this season plaing down in Miami, but he’ll be tested in this game by the conditions. I’ll lean with Kansas City plus the points.
San Francisco (-5.5) 23 ST. LOUIS 19
The 49ers have been an underrated team since Shaun Hill took over for turnover prone J.T. O’Sullivan at quarterback in week 10, going 5-1 ATS in Hill’s 6 starts, but my math model favors the Niners by 5 ½ points if RB Frank Gore misses this game (he’s a game time decision) and without star kick and punt return man Allen Rossum (he’s missed the last 3 games and is questionable this week), so it looks like the line has finally caught up to their improved play and there is no longer value on their side. With that being the case, I’ll lean with the Rams on the basis of a solid 98-44-2 ATS situation that applies to St. Louis and a negative 25-64-2 ATS last road game angle that applies to the Niners. San Francisco does apply to an 84-37 ATS statistical indicator, but the technical analysis still favors the Rams.
New Orleans (-7.0) 28 DETROIT 21
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
CLEVELAND (-2.5) 19 Cincinnati 14
Cincinnati is coming off a rare win last week (just their 2nd of the season) and Cleveland is down to Ken Dorsey at quarterback, but the Browns are still a better overall team and the Bengals and my math model calls for a 5 point win by the home team.
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 24 San Diego 18
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
Houston (-7.0) 26 OAKLAND 19
Houston’s upset win over Tennessee last week gives the Texans 4 consecutive wins to even their record at 7-7 after starting the year with 4 consecutive losses. That upset win, however, sets up the Texans in a negative 22-50-2 ATS road letdown situation and they also apply to a negative 25-64-2 ATS last road game angle. Oakland was blown out for a second consecutive game last week and underdogs of less than 14 points are just 2-21 ATS if they’ve lost consecutive games by 20 points or more and are facing a team that has won their last two games. The Raiders have potential to play this game close, as they have proven to be decent offensively against bad defensive teams (Houston is bad on defense) and they have a good enough secondary to keep the Texans’ potent aerial attack in check. My math model, based on projected stats, favors Houston by only 4 points, but a model the incorporates scoring efficiencies favors the Texans by 11 points. I’ll call it 7 points and will pass this game.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) 26 Atlanta 19
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
NY GIANTS (-3.0) 24 Carolina 17
Carolina has looked very good in recent weeks and the Giants have lost consecutive games to divisional foes Philadelphia and Dallas. So, instead of being a 6 point favorite in this game the Giants are now a 3 point favorite due to an overreaction to recent performance. New York is a still one of the best teams in the league despite losing those two games and too much is being made of the Giants’ offense suffering without suspended WR Plaxico Burress. Burress wasn’t having a very good season, averaging a sub-par 6.9 yards per pass thrown to him, which compares negatively with the 7.3 ypa average of the rest of the Giants’ wide receivers. Eli Manning has also been 0.7 yards per pass play better than average in 5 games without Burress this season, which is better than his overall rating of +0.3 yppp. Carolina’s offense has been racking up some big rushing numbers lately against mostly teams with very bad run defenses, but the Giants are good defensively against both the run and the pass and New York’s ground attack, which rates at 0.6 ypr better than Carolina’s after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses, should run the ball easily against a sub-par Panthers’ run defense (4.2 ypr allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.1 ypr against an average team). My math model favors New York by 6 points and, while I have situations favoring both sides, the Giants apply to a decent 173-108-8 ATS statistical profile indicator that plays on teams that are projected to be able to run the ball well. I’d consider New York a Strong Opinion at -3 and odds of -1.15 or less.
CHICAGO (-4.0) 23 Green Bay 20
Check back Friday night or Saturday for analysis of this game.
Kevin Kavitch
Tennessee strikes me as a vulnerable team right now. Injuries have played a significant role and I think opposing coaches have seen enough film now to figure out some of the things that made Tennessee successful early on. The Titans are 2-2 recently with losses to the Jets and Texans, giving up 375+ yards on defense during each of those games. Pittsburgh on the other hand has just finished beating 3 very motivated and solid opponents (Baltimore, Dallas, New England). They just keep finding ways to win. The D has been exceptional and that's their edge in this game. They shut down the opposing team's rushing attack (which is especially important to Tennessee's offense) and only once all year have they allowed more than 200 yards passing (228 vs Indy). With the #1 seed on this line I'll lay less than 3 with the better team who also has a stronger D and is healthier. Take Pittsburgh -1 for a 5* Top Play. I'd still lay up to -2.5 as a Top Play if the line moves. Play it now to get the best possible number.
Detroit and Orlovsky delivered on the road for us last week at 0-13 and I expect them to deliver at home this week at 0-14. Forget the numbers, here's what I think this really boils down to. Detroit showed last week they're still willing to fight. Orlovsky is a leader and he looked good last week in spite of the layoff. He gives them a chance with the weapons he has like WR Calvin Johnson. Facing a road trip tom frozen Green Bay after this one, the Lions know they're staring infamy in the face. I expect their very best effort here. The Saints know they pissed away their season last week and even 9-7 won't do it this season. It wouldn't be a shock if that a bit of their intensity away. Big away favorites with bad defenses are a bad bet vs the spread and the Saints qualify. Losing Bush also doesn't help given his impact on special teams and opponent game plans. I expect the Lions will give the Saints everthing they can handle and at least cover the big number. Take Detroit +7 for a 4* Regular Play.
Sports Wise Guys
Seattle +5 over NY Jets
New Orleans -7 over Detroit
New England -8 over Arizona
NY Giants/Carolina Over 37.5
Denver/Buffalo Under 44.5
Joyce Sterling
Cleveland -3
10* Game of the Week
Cincinnati with more injuries and they can not score on the road.In their last 4 road games they have scored 3, 10, 6 and 14.Cincy has scored 2 TDs in the last 15 quarters averaging 9.8 in their last 5 games.Cincy has covered only 1 of their last 10 AFC Matchups The Browns have played better at home and we feel that makes all the difference in this game.
Philadelphia vs Washington OVER 38.5
10* Game of the Week
Redskins both offensive tackles are out.Philadelphia plays focused with revenge after blowing a 14-0 lead in the loss.Phila looks to continue their run to the playoffs.
Spylock
Tampa Bay 1 unit
Northcoast Private Play Hotline
AFC GOW Titans
NFC GOW Seahawks
The Lockline
NFL GOY Eagles
Dave Malinsky
4* Troy -4
Sixth Sense
1% TROY –4.5
LPW Confidential Access
10-5 Ytd
TAMPA BAY
Maddux Sports
5 units on NY Giants -3 (NFC Game of the Year)
3 units on Minnesota -3
3 units on Seattle +3.5
3 units on Buffalo +6
3 units on (2 team teaser) Tennessee +8 & New England -2
Youngstown Connection
Pittsburgh -2
KBHoops
8* NFL Game of the Week NY Giants -3.5 **POD**
7* NFL Game of the Week Tampa Bay -3.5
5* Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
5* Detroit Lions +7
5* Tennessee Titans +2