Sports Wise Guys
Seattle +5 over NY Jets
New Orleans -7 over Detroit
New England -8 over Arizona
NY Giants/Carolina Over 37.5
Denver/Buffalo Under 44.5
Troy -4 over Southern Miss
RJ Robbins
New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions
Pick: Over 50.5
This will be a SHOOT-0UT!! These two teams are a combined 19-8 OVER this year. Detroit will try and pull out all the stops trying for their 1st win, while NO doesn't want to be their only victim. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) vs bad rushing teams - averaging less than 90ypg over the last 3 seasons,and also 6-0 OVER vs NFC North and they are 7-0 OVER in December games the last 2 years. DETROIT is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) vs. good passing teams over the last 2 seasons. NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR OVER 50.5
RON RAYMOND
5* NFL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions +7
5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK
Cardinals / Patriots Under 43.5
4-GAME NFL PROLINE PICK PACK
New England Patriots -9
Detroit Lions +7
Oakland Raiders +7
Denver Broncos -6
Dave Malinsky
5* New York Giants -3 4* -3.5 to 4
4* Troy -4
PICKENS PICK
500 unit- NFL Total of the Year NY Giants / Carolina Panthers "under"
This will be a very difficult game to pass the football. The Giants defense will be more than ready to slow down the running game of the Panthers. Also, the Giants offense will continue it's slow pace even with the return of Jacobs. It's a 20-17 kinda game.....looking at the current weather pattern, this Sunday's NE snow storm is moving slow than expected and this will have a major effect on the Sunday night game. Game Start Weather: 33 degrees ice cold rain. Second half weather: snow showers 27 degrees 20+ mph winds.
200 unit NFL GAME OF THE MONTH - New England Patriots.
100 unit- NFL Divisional Game of the Week- Philadelphia Eagles
75 unit- Houston Texas
75 unit NFL Beating of the Day- Minnesota Vikings (this game will be a double digit win)
50 unit- NY Jets (buy the 1/2 point lay 3)
50 unit- Bengals / Browns "over" the total ...this line is simply way too low and it's off by more than a touchdown
IndianCowboy
Troy Trojans @ So Mississippi
3 units Under 55
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
3 units New York Giants -3 (-125)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennesse Titans
3 units Tennesse Titans +2
Brand X Sports
Troy Trojans versus Southern Miss Golden Eagles
This game is a tough one to handicap.
Southern Miss finished the season with four straight wins AND covers. Troy Also closed out well with two straight wins and three straight covers. Southern Miss does struggle getting points, as the Eagles have just one cover in their last Four games as underdogs.
Both teams are undefeated in the New Orleans Bowl, Troy winning last year And Sothern Miss the two years before that.
While Southern Miss is hot, Troy was consistent all season long.
I feel the long layoff will hurt the hotter team the most.
5* Troy Trojans -4
LARRY NESS
Larry's 7* New Orleans Bowl
TROY
Larry's Las Vegas Insider-CBB
MIAMI-FLA
Larry's 20* Total of the Month- NFL
NEW ORLEANS/ DETROIT OVER
Larry's 15* Sunday Night Game of the Month
NY GIANTS
Las Vegas Insider- NFL
Tampa Bay
ATS Financial
4 units NY Jets -3 1/2 over Seattle
4 units Tampa -3 over San Diego
Brandon Lang
30-Dime Steelers - If the line is -3 you are to buy the 1/2-point and make sure to lay 2-1/2. If the line moves to -3-1/2, buy the 1/2-point and lay -3.)
10-Dime 6-Point Teaser Eagles/Buccaneers
Gold Medal Club
NFL
114 Washington
116 St.Louis
123 NYJets (HUGE)
126 Oakland
CBB
514 Miami-Florida (HUGE)
Matt Fargo
5* NFL 81.2% Dark Horse Dandy
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
This time of year, the linesmakers over adjust lines more than usual based on must wins situations and playoff pushes. That is no doubt the case here with the Dolphins who are in a fight with the Jets and Patriots for the AFC East title and the possible only playoff spot between the three teams. Thus, the Dolphins have been shaded as the public loves to bet on these must win games. That is shaping up here as over 80 percent of the action has been on Miami in what is perceived a small line and thus an easy victory
The Chiefs continue to battle and if not for a fumbled onsides kick, they would have come out with a victory against the Chargers last week. They blew a 21-3 lead against San Diego but I don?t expect a hangover or a letdown from that as this is the final home game of the season and why not try and play spoiler. Kansas City is the best one-win team we have seen in a while as it has been competitive in all but one of its last eight games. This team has not quit and is actually picking up steam as the season ends.
After scoring more than 14 points once in their first six games, the Chiefs have scored 20 points or more in six of their last eight games, averaging 22.4 ppg over this span. While the offense is clicking behind the resurgent Tyler Thigpen, the Dolphins offense has been pretty stagnate. Miami has scored 16 points or fewer in its last three games and has scored 17 points or fewer in eight of its 15 games. Kansas City is no potent defense but neither was San Francisco, Buffalo, St. Louis or Oakland.
The Dolphins have won seven of their last eight games which is pretty miraculous considering they had just one win all of last season. The turnaround will be one of the biggest in NFL history but it has been pretty close to not being a turnaround at all. Of those seven wins, only one has been by double digits, four have been by five points or fewer and six have come against teams that will not be in the playoffs. Six of the last nine games have been at home while one roadie, at Buffalo, actually took place in Toronto.
Miami is winning but not covering so we should expect yet another tight game and Kansas City falls into a great situation based on this. Play against teams after failing to cover the spread in four out of their last five games that have won between 60 and 75 percent of their games and playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential covering the numbers by close to six ppg. The Dolphins may be looking ahead to the Jets next week as well. 5* Kansas City Chiefs
SIXTH SENSE
Pittsburgh –2 TENNESSEE 34.5
The Steelers got a little lucky last week but they controlled the game from the line of scrimmage, out gaining Baltimore 4.4yppl to 3.3yppl, including out passing them 5.1yps to 3.0yps. The Titans struggled at Houston, losing the game and getting out gained 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl, including being out passed 6.4yps to 5.5yps. They will also be without Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch as well this week. For the season, Pittsburgh averages just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They continue to play great defense, allowing just 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 4.3yps against 5.9yps and 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They have struggled most against teams with good offenses this year like Dallas and the Giants. Tennessee doesn’t fit that bill. Their offense averages 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.2yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is also very good allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr and 4.9yps against 5.9yps for a total of 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They will be hurt without their two strong defensive lineman but Pittsburgh doesn’t challenge you with a great offense. Pittsburgh qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 75-32-7 and plays against them here. They qualified in the same situation last week and overcame it. Tennessee qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 206-120-15, 72-25-3 and 288-199-21. Numbers favor Tennessee by 6.5 points and predict about 33 points. This game should decide who gets home field advantage in the AFC for the playoffs barring an upset in the last week of the season. Pittsburgh is the healthier team right now but I have to lean Tennessee’s way because of the line value. The Titans can still play great pass defense against Pittsburgh, even with the injuries, and Pittsburgh doesn’t possess a great offense to take advantage of the missing players. Line value and strong situations line up here for Tennessee. TENNESSEE 21 PITTSBURGH 13
Miami –4 KANSAS CITY 39.5
Miami failed to cover against SF last week has they allowed SF to control the ball for 38 minutes of the game. Miami did out gain SF 5.9yppl to 4.0yppl, including out passing them 7.5yps to 4.0yps. If you take away the early 61 yard touchdown pass to David Martin, Miami averaged only 4.6yps and yppl for the game. You can’t take that pass away but it was a pass where Martin out reached the defender and then basically was able to sprint to the end zone. KC led SD most of the game before losing in OT. They were out gained 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl in the game. Miami averages 7.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yps against 5.3yps. KC averages 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Miami by five points and predict about 39 points. Miami is the better team and doesn’t make mistakes but they don’t blow anybody away either. They have just two wins by double digits this year. KC has played nine games against .500 or better teams this year and won only one and came within three points just once. That means in seven of those nine games (some of which were on the road), they have lost by four or more points. MIAMI 24 KANSAS CITY 17
NEW ENGLAND –7.5 Arizona 45
NE rolled over Oakland last week in a rainstorm 49-26. They out gained Oakland 6.9yppl to 5.4yppl, including out rushing them 7.1ypr to 4.3ypr and out passing them 6.6yps to 6.2yps. People will look at the stats and say NE allowed Oakland 26 points and allowed them to gain 5.4yppl, which isn’t good against a bad Oakland offense. But, NE was ahead in that game 21-0 before Oakland scored. Up to that point, Oakland had gained 10 yards on nine plays. Oakland also got a kick off return for a touchdown and scored a meaningless touchdown near the end of the game. NE scored touchdowns on their first four possessions. Arizona was spanked at home against Minnesota. They were beaten 35-14 and out gained 6.2yppl to 5.2yppl, including being out passed 7.9yps to 5.1yps. Arizona rushed the ball for 6.1ypr but only rushed the ball seven times in the game with a few of those late on draw plays. Arizona averages just 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr but 7.2yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.4yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. NE averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 6.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. NE qualifies in a late season situation based on the poor defensive play of Arizona last week, which is 100-55-2. Arizona qualifies in a late season scheduling situation, which is 119-62-0 and plays against them here. Numbers, however, make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 58 points. This line is inflated because NE needs this game, Arizona is 0-4 SU and ATS on the road against .500 or better teams, losing by an average score of 39-24. Add to that Arizona can’t really improve their playoff position unless they win their last two games and Minnesota loses their games. And, improving to the #3 spot doesn’t do them a lot of good anyway. With that chance being somewhat remote and not necessarily helping them, they are willing to rest some of their players in this game. The weather is potentially going to be very bad for this game as well with significant snow and wind possible. That won’t help an Arizona team, who doesn’t need this game, could probably care less about playing in the snow and will probably rest their better players. NEW ENGLAND 37 ARIZONA 17
CLEVELAND –3 Cincinnati 32.5
Cleveland was dominated badly last Monday by Philadelphia. They were out gained 5.7yppl to 3.8yppl, including being out rushed 4.1ypr to 2.9ypr and out passed 7.1yps to 4.5yps. Cincinnati got a big win over Washington, 20-13 and out gained the Redskins 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl. They also passed for 6.6yps, which was great, considering they have been terrible throwing the ball and they did it against the Redskins. Credit Marvin Lewis for his team still playing hard. Cleveland averages only 5.0yps against 5.7yps and 4.5yppl against 4.9yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. Cincinnati averages just 4.2yps against 5.5yps and 3.9yppl against 4.8yppl. They allow 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl overall. Numbers favor Cleveland by eight points but those numbers include some of the injured Browns when they were playing earlier in the year, like quarterbacks Anderson and Quinn and Kellen Winslow. I don’t have any situations on this game. Total points predicted are 37 points. No big opinion on this game. I will lean towards Cleveland but it is a weak lean at best. CLEVELAND 21 CINCINNATI 16
Philadelphia –5 WASHINGTON 39
Philly made easy work of Cleveland last week in their 30-10 win. They out gained the Browns 5.7yppl to 3.8yppl, including out passing them 7.1yps to 4.5yps and out rushing them 4.1ypr to 2.9ypr. Washington struggled in their loss at Cincinnati as they allowed a bad Cincinnati offense to gain 6.6yps. Overall they were out gained 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl. Philly averages 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.2yps against 5.9yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl. Washington averages 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl, which is better than average but those numbers were much better earlier in the year. Washington seems to have packed it in for the year. They have scored more than 13 points just once in their last six games. Washington qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 206-120-15, 72-25-3 and 288-199-21. Numbers favor Philly by four points and predict about 39 points. Philly has won seven of the last eight meetings here. Three of those seven wins were by three points or less and the other four wins were by eight or more points. Against the two better teams they have faced most recently at home, Pittsburgh and the Giants, Washington has lost those games by 17 and 16 points. Not sure they get back up on their feet in this game. PHILADELPHIA 24 WASHINGTON 16
San Francisco –5.5 ST LOUIS 43.5
SF controlled the clock for 38 minutes last week at Miami, losing the game by five points but covering the spread. They were out gained 5.9yppl to 4.0yppl, including being out passed 7.1yps to 4.5yps. They allowed an early 61 yard touchdown pass to David Martin, which helped build those Miami numbers. Without that play, Miami averaged just 4.6 yards per pass and per play in the game. The Rams jumped out to a lead against Seattle before losing in OT. They were out gained 6.1yppl to 5.3yppl, including being out passed 7.4yps to 6.2yps and out rushed 4.6ypr to 4.2ypr. SF averages 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl and allows just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The Rams average just 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.5yps against 6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by just 2.5 points and predict about 41 points. If I took just their stats since Mike Singletary took over for the 49ers, I’m sure those numbers would be much better. Since Mike took over the 49ers have covered five of six games with Shaun Hill at quarterback. SF matches up well against the Rams because they like to control the clock and that suits them very well against a poor defense like St. Louis. But, they haven’t won here by more than four points in the last nine years so I can’t get too excited about them covering this spread. SAN FRANCISCO 24 ST LOUIS 17
MINNESOTA –3 Atlanta 43
The Vikings came out storming last week in Arizona and controlled that game from the get go in their easy 35-14 win. They out gained Arizona 6.2yppl to 5.2yppl, including out passing them 7.9yps to 5.1yps. They also averaged 5.4ypr against a decent Arizona rush defense. Arizona rushed for 6.1ypr themselves but they only rushed the ball seven times, with most of them late in the game, coming from inside draws, etc. Atlanta jumped out to a lead against TB, only to see TB come back and force OT before finally winning the game. They out gained TB 5.6yppl to 4.9yppl, including out passing them 8.3yps to 5.5yps. Atlanta doesn’t throw the ball much but when they do they are very efficient, especially at home. Atlanta averages just 4.2ypr against 4.3ypr but 149 yards per game against teams allowing just 123 yards per game. That is a direct result of them running the ball about 55% of the time. They average 7.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Atlanta allows 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. The Vikings average 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Minnesota will be without Pat Williams this week but the rest of their defense is still very good at stopping the rush. And, Williams takes plenty of breaks during the course of the game and this defense still stands up when he is out. Minnesota qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. Atlanta also qualifies in a negative late season scheduling situation, which is 119-62-0 and plays against them here. The Vikings also qualify in numerous fundamental rushing situations, which are 91-52-8, 677-532-42, including a subset, which is 535-402-30. They also qualify in rushing situations, which are 206-120-15, 288-199-21 and 453-309-27. Numbers favor Minnesota by four points and predict about 41 points. Atlanta has played three road games against teams above .500 this year who all happen to have good defenses. They have lost all three of those games, failing to come closer than 13 points in those games. They were out scored by an average of 25-11. Minnesota has won four games in a row and five home games in a row. They should put plenty of pressure on Matt Ryan, who has done a great job this year, and that should force some turnovers. Add to that Minnesota can obviously run the ball and Atlanta has had trouble stopping the run all year long. MINNESOTA 30 ATLANTA 17
New Orleans –7 DETROIT 50.5
Saints were eliminated with their loss at Chicago last week. They out gained the Bears 4.5yppl to 3.6yppl, including out rushing them 3.7ypr to 2.8ypr and out passing them 5.1yps to 4.1yps. Detroit played hard in their loss at Indy. They were out gained 6.3yppl to 5.8yppl and out passed 8.3yps to 6.9yps. The Saints average just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr but 7.6yps against 6.1yps for a total of 6.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit averages just 5.3yps against 5.9yps but those numbers have gotten better over the last few weeks. They average 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl overall. Defensively they have been terrible. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.7yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit qualifies in the same winless situation that have qualified in so many weeks this year. That situation is 76-30-6. Numbers favor NO by eight points and predict about 58 points. Prior to their allowing 20 points at home to Minnesota, Detroit had allowed at least 25 points in each home game and at least 34 in all but two of their home games. NO has averaged 27 points per game on the road against poor defensive teams. I would look to the over in this game but the number has been set high, I can’t count on Detroit to do their part and it’s hard to tell what the mentality of NO will be knowing they are eliminated from the playoffs. NEW ORLEANS 31 DETROIT 24
NY GIANTS –3 Carolina 38
Carolina beat up Denver last week in their 30-10 win. They out gained Denver 7.1yppl to 4.7yppl, including out passing them 9.7yps to 4.4yps. The Giants were stuffed at Dallas last week. They were out gained 5.8yppl to 3.6yppl, out passed 6.5yps to 3.4yps and out rushed 4.8ypr to 4.2ypr. Eight sacks for 45 yards hurt the overall numbers for NY. Carolina has really improved their offensive numbers the last few weeks. They now average 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, throw for 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl overall. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl overall. The Giants average 4.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.1yps against 5.9yps and 5.5yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow just 5.5yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Carolina qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is 75-32-7 and plays against them here. The Giants qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 91-52-8, 206-120-15 and 288-199-21. Numbers favor the Giants by four points and predict about 45 points. Carolina has played three games on the road against above .500 teams and lost all three games. They lost those games by 10, 17 and 24 points. This number is short because of the recent success at home for Carolina and the lack of success for the Giants. It’s still a short number for the better team, getting value and with solid situations in their favor. NY GIANTS 31 CAROLINA 17
NY Jets –3.5 SEATTLE 44.5
The Jets struggled to get by Buffalo last week but they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. NY averaged 6.9yppl to 4.1yppl, 6.9yps to 2.8yps and 6.9ypr to 5.8ypr. The biggest problem for the Jets was Buffalo controlled the clock for over 35 minutes. Seattle fell behind early to the Rams but stormed back to win 23-20. They out gained the Rams 6.1yppl to 5.3yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 6.2yps and out rushed them 4.6ypr to 4.2ypr. The Jets average 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr but just 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr but 6.1yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Seattle averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 6.9yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Seattle qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 38-10-1. The Jets qualify in a late season negative situation, which is 119-62-0. Numbers favor the Jets by 6.5 points before accounting for the situations. They also predict about 50 points. Seattle has played well as of late at home, losing by 3, 3 and 6 points. The Jets have struggled on the west coast, losing all three games they have played at San Diego, Oakland and San Francisco. SEATTLE 27 NY JETS 23
Houston –7 OAKLAND 44
Houston got a big win over Tennessee last week 13-12. They out gained the Titans 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl, including out passing them 6.4yps to 5.5yps. Oakland was beaten badly at home against NE. They were out gained 6.9yppl to 5.4yppl, out passed 6.6yps to 6.2yps and out rushed 7.1ypr to 4.3ypr. Houston averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 5.9yps and 6.0yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.9yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. Oakland averages just 4.8yps against 6.3yps and 4.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Houston by five points and predict about 44 points. HOUSTON 27 OAKLAND 17
DENVER –7 Buffalo 44.5
Denver was throttled at Carolina last week 30-10. They were out gained 7.1yppl to 4.7yppl, including being out passed 9.7yps to 4.4yps. Buffalo made a game of it at the Jets but they were out played from the line of scrimmage. They were out gained 6.9yppl to 4.1yppl, including being out passed 6.9yps to 2.8yps and out rushed 6.9ypr to 5.8ypr. Buffalo averages just 5.9yps against 6.5yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Denver averages 7.1yps against 6.4yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. But, they allow 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.9yps against 6.1yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Denver qualifies in a late season situation, which is 100-55-2. Numbers only favor Denver by four points and predict about 49 points. Denver has won just two games by more than seven points this year. It’s pretty tough to lay this many points with such a poor defense. DENVER 26 BUFFALO 23
TAMPA BAY –3.5 San Diego 42.5
SD fell behind early last week but managed a terrific comeback win over KC. They out gained the Chiefs 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl, including out passing them 6.4yps to 6.0yps. TB lost at Atlanta and were out gained in that game as well. They were out gained 5.6yppl to 4.9yppl, including being out passed 8.3yps to 5.5yps. SD has really struggled to run the ball this year, averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.4ypr but they are averaging 7.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. TB has been well below average on offense, averaging just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.0ypr against 6.2ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.7yps against 6.6yps and 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl so this is a good match up against SD for their defense. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor TB by just a ½ point and predict about 40 points. SD is 0-3 SU on the road against .500 or better teams while TB is undefeated at home, including 2-0 SU against below .500 teams with each win by at least nine points. The TB pass defense matches up well with the SD pass offense. TAMPA BAY 24 SAN DIEGO 17
CHICAGO –4 Green Bay 41
The Bears got by with a win in OT last week against NO but they were out gained in that game. NO out gained Chicago 4.5yppl to 3.6yppl, including 5.1yps to 4.1yps and 3.7ypr to 2.8ypr. GB settled for field goals instead of touchdowns in their loss at Jacksonville. They were out gained 6.0yppl to 5.4yppl and out rushed GB 4.9ypr to 3.0ypr. GB out passed Jacksonville 7.3yps to 6.5yps. GB averages 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Chicago has been terrible on offense gaining just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. That makes the Packers slightly better from the line of scrimmage. Chicago qualifies in a very strong letdown situation, which is 103-35-3 as long as they are favored by four or more points. But, Chicago qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 677-532-42, including a subset, which is 525-402-30. Numbers favor Chicago by 4.5 points and predict about 49 points. GB is 0-4 SU on the road against .500 or better teams this year. Chicago is 2-0 SU at home against below .500 teams this year. If this line would move to less than four points I would consider the Bears as a Best Bet but at –4 or higher the strong situation applies against them so I can just lean their way right now. If this line goes to –3.5 or lower make Chicago a Best Bet for 3%. CHICAGO 30 GREEN BAY 20
3% TENNESSEE +2
3% MINNESOTA –3
3% NY GIANTS –3
3% SEATTLE +3.5
Frank Patron
30000 Unit Lock #38
Minnesota Vikings -3