Teddy Sevransky
6 units Giants +3
3 units Falcons +3.5
3 units Troy -4 (CFB)
Kelso
50 Units Eagles (-5) over Redskins
Two Minute Warning
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Investor
Cleveland -3
Detroit +7
San Francisco -5
Tennessee +2 1/2
Buffalo +7
Seattle +4
Minnesota -3
Washington +5
Green Bay +4
Larry Ness
20* Total of the Month- NFL
The Lions' best chance to get their first win of 2008 will come in their home finale on Sunday against the Saints. Detroit is desperately hoping to avoid becoming the first NFL team to ever get to 0-15 in a season. If the Lions lose on Sunday, they'll play their season finale next Sunday at Green Bay, where they haven't won since 1991, which means a loss here and the team is facing the very likely possibility of becoming the NFL's first team to finish a 16-game season without a win. Sounds like pretty good motivation to me. Some good news for Detroit fans is that QB Dan Orlovsky returned last week at Indy and completed 23-of-34 for 233 yards with a TD and no INTs. That bodes well against a New Orleans' D which is hardly anything special when NOT injury-depleted (four defensive starters, including DE Charles Grant and CB Mike McKenzie, are out for the season). As for the Saints, they know a lot about losing and don't want to be the team that lets the Lions "off the hook." In fact, while the Saints will not be playoff-bound this year, Drew Brees still has a chance to surpass Dan Marino's single-season record of 5,083 passing yards. Brees was "ahead of pace" a few weeks back but has been held to 230 and 232 yards the last two weeks. He'll need to "step up the pace" if he wasts the record, as he'll need 751 yards in the Saints' last two games. With the Panthers up next in week 17, Brees will need a HUGE game vs the Lions to give him a 'fighting chance' next Sunday. Why won't he accomplish just that? The Lions rank 31st in YPG (389.6) and dead-last in scoring, allowing 31.7 PPG (have allowed 31 points or more, nine times). New Orleans ranks first in total offense (401.6 PPG) and first in scoring (27.9). Brees will take on a Detroit pass D which has the fewest INTs on the year (four!), while allowing 20 TDs. In the team's seven home games, the Lions are allowing 70 percent completions with a 11 TDs and two INTs, as opposing QBs have posted a QB rating of 115.5. Reggie Bush is out for the Saints this week and that just means Brees will throw even more. The Lions don't get much pressure on the QB and I see no reason whatsoever for Brees NOT to have a big game. The Lions can only win by outscoring the Saints and will sure be motivated to do so, looking to avoid that winless season. The Lions ended last year with FIVE straight 'overs' and are 6-1 or 5-1-1 to the over in their last seven games TY. As for the Saints, they have gone over at the rate of 22-10-1 their last 33. The perfect conditions of Ford Field give both teams a chance to "light it up." This total is high but it's not "high enough!"
NFL December Total of the Month 20* NO/Det Over.
Sunday Night Showdown
What a great game. Both teams come in 11-3 and the winner clinches home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. While their records may be identical, the Giants come in off two straight losses, while the Panthers have won three straight and SEVEN of their last eight. The Panthers lost to the Pats in the Super Bowl (2003 season) and in 2005, lost the NFC championship game in Seattle to the Seahawks. The 2006 season saw Carolina disappoint at 8-8 and then fall to 7-9 in '07, with QB Jake Delhomme missing most of the year and undergoing "Tommy John surgery." Needless to say, the Panthers had some question marks entering the '08 season. As for the Giants, they were coming off a superlative postseason in which Eli matured and led by an incredible defensive effort, prevented the Patriots from completing the NFL's first-ever 19-0 season. The Giants were defending Super Bowl champs but still weren't the NFC favorites (the Cowboys were). However, the Giants opened 11-1 through 13 weeks and were considered to be the NFL's best team (Titans were a close 2nd). However, the last two weeks they have lost at home to the Eagles and then at Dallas. The losses were 'ugly,' as the Giants gained just 211 yards vs the Eagles and scored their only offensive TD with 15 second left in a 20-14 loss. Last Sunday night in Dallas, the offense was just as inept, totaling just 218 yards and not scoring a single TD in a 20-8 loss to the Cowboys. Manning, who is having the best statistical season of his career (60.3 / 2,938 YP / 20-10 ratio / 86.4 rating), is just 31-of-62 the last two weeks, with 314 yards (one TD / two INTs). Moving to the Panthers, Delhomme has been a pleasant surprise at QB. He has not been great but coming off Tommy John surgery, he's been everything and more, than the Panthers could have hoped for. He's completing 58.9 percent with 14 TDs and 12 INTs (2,853 YP) and has a QB rating of 82.0. WR Steve Smith sat out the first two games, but still has 70 catches and his average of 103.3 YPG receiving, tops the league. Mushin Muhammad returned to Carolina from Chicago and has been an outstanding compliment to Smith, with 54 catches (14.1 YPC / 4 TDs). The Giants still lead the NFL in rushing (148.7 YPG) but the Panthers are "closing in," averaging 146.1 YPG (4.8 YPC). Carolina also has 25 rushing TDs, the most in the NFL (Giants have 16). DeAngelo Williams has blossomed into one of the NFL's top RBs with 1,229 yards on the year (5.5 YPC / 14 TDs). He's topped 100 yards in FIVE of his last seven games, scoring at least oneTD in each game (12 in all, including one TD catch). Rookie Jonathan Stewart has 751 YR (4.8 YPC) and nine TDs. Both teams have solid defenses (Giants allow 17.6 PPG and the Panthers allow 18.9) and this game will have a true "playoff atmosphere." Jacobs (1,002 YR / 5.1 YPC / 12 TDs) is expected to play (knee) and Ward (733 YR / 4.8 YPC) is also set to go (ankle), meaning the Giants will have "all hands on deck," with Bradshaw (327 YR / 5.7 YPC) being just fine. The key to the Giants running game is Jacobs pounding the middle, Ward being the "change of pace back" and Bradshaw coming in will 'fresh legs' and explosive speed in the 4th quarter. The Giants were "on top of the NFL world" just three weeks ago and now, if they lose Sunday while Minnesota wins, the NFC East champs would need to beat the Vikings in Week 17 just to get a first-round bye. Wow! The Panthers have been quite a story this year but let's take a close look at their road games. They've won at San Diego in Week 1 on the game's final play to the league's biggest underachievers, they've won at Oakland (3-11 and minus-143 in point differential on the year) and they've won at Green Bay, which has 'imploded,' losing four straight while allowing 32.5 PPG. The Panthers have lost at three 9-5 teams, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Aren't the Giants better than the the Vikes, Bucs and Falcons by a WIDE margin?
Sunday Night Showdown 15* NY Giants.
Las Vegas Insider-CBB
The Clemson Tigers have opened 11-0. So what else is new? The Tigers got off to a 10-0 start the year before that, a 17-0 start the year before that one and an 11-0 start the year before that one. You can't make this up. However, while the Tigers are known for their fast starts these last four years, Clemson has not typically finished very well these past three seasons, so I'm not all that convinced this year will be any different. The Tigers won their first 10 games but went 14-10 thereafter last season. Clemson opened 17-0 in 2006-07 before finishing 8-11 and that year was almost an 'instant replay' of 2005-06, when its 11-0 start preceded an 8-13 finish Clemson did get to the ACC tourney finals last season for just the just the second time in school history (only other appearance came in 1962) but then promptly lost in the opening round of the school's first NCAA appearance since 1998. Speaking of NCAA opening round games, the Miami Hurricanes won their first round game last year, before giving Texas a 'scare' in the second round. In head coach Frank Haith's fourth season in South Florida, the 'Canes bounced back from an 'ugly' 12-win season the year before to go 23-11. This will the ACC opener for both teams. Clemson is without the outstanding all-around play of guard Hammonds (11.4-4.1-4.9) this year, as well as the inside play of center Mays (10.7-6.8). However, last year's two excellent freshman guards, Oglesby (12.5) and Stitt (9.2-2.5-3.7) are a year older and a season better. Senior swingman Rivers (13.5-6.5) joins the starting lineup with the 6-7 Booker (15.1-9.0) and the 6-9 Sykes (9.3-5.4) starting up front. Depth comes from the 6-6 Potter (5.5), the 6-8 Grant (4.7) and two freshman guards (sound familiar to LY?), Young (4.2) and Smith (3.5). That's a talented group but the 'Canes won't back down, especially here at home. Haith goes with a three-guard lineup, led by seniors McClinton (16.7-2.4-2.6) and Hurdle (9.3) plus junior Dews (8.9). The 6-8 Collins (11.1-8.2) and the 6-9 McGowan (7.0-6.0) start up front, as Haith likes the idea of bringing both the 6-7 Asbury (7.3-4.7) and the 6-8 Graham (5.2-6.6) off the bench. Clemson has beaten its first 11 opponents by an average of 20.5 PPG but has played only one school from a major conference. In that one, the Tigers needed to overcome an eight-point halftime deficit to win 76-74 at Illinois on Dec 2 in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. Meanwhile, the 7-2 Hurricanes have already faced three major opponents. The team's two losses came vs U Conn and Ohio St (currently ranked No. 2 and No. 17, respectively) while winning 73-67 at Kentucky on Dec 6. Miami has fared well vs Clemson since joining the ACC, winning FIVE of the seven meetings, including going a perfect 3-0 here at home plus beating the Tigers in the schools lone meeting in the ACC tourney. Clemson's fast start gets derailed again here.
Las Vegas Insider on Miami-Florida.
7* New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss got rid of Jeff Bower who had led the football team for 17 years, going to bowl games in 10 of the last 11. In fact, Southern Miss owned 14 straight winning seasons entering this year, joining only Fla, FlaSst, Michigan and Va Tech with at least that many. Larry Fedora, the OC at Okla St from 2005-07 and at Fla in '04 got the job and the Golden Eagles stumbled to a 2-6 start, which included five straight losses (also 0-5 ATS). During the slide (through the end of October), the Southern Miss D allowed 35.8 PPG. But the Eagles beat UAB 70-14 in a home game on Nov 1 and went 4-0 SU and ATS to end the year at 6-6 and get this bowl bid. Remember that 35.8 PPG average its D allowed in that five-game losing streak? Well, Southern Miss allowed a total of just 35 points in its four-game winning streak (8.8 PPG), while scoring 34.0 per. Southern Miss improved steadily on offense with redshirt freshman QB Austin Davis getting better game-by-game. He's thrown for 2,852 yards and 21 touchdowns (just eight INTs) with more than a third of his passing yards (1,108) and more than half of his TDs (12) going to 6-foot-6 freshman DeAndre Brown. Let's also not forget about RB Damion Fletcher, who topped the 1,000-yard mark (1,235 YR / 6.0 YPC / 9 TDs) for the third straight year. He leads a rushing game which averages 196.3 YPG (4.8 YPC). While the Southern Miss program has much more bowl experience and has the motivation of 'saving' its season after a poor start (FYI...a Southern Miss win extends the school's streak to 15 consecutive winning seasons, while a loss ends it!), I believe Troy has just as much to play for and at least as much to prove. Larry Blakeney is in his 18th year at Troy, which is long before the school moved up to Division I-A (in 2001). "Anybody, anywhere, anytime, that's something we've lived by for a while," the Trojans' coach said this week as his team prepared for the New Orleans Bowl. The man is right. I won't take up too much space but the Trojans opened with Alabama St in 2006 and then played at Fla St, at Ga Tech and at Nebraska. In 2007, the Trojans opened with road games at Arkansas and Florida, before hosting Okla St. The Trojans were scheduled to play at LSU this year in early September but Hurricane Ike postponed that game. Troy did hang tough at Ohio St on 9/20 and the following week, traveled to Stillwater, to get blasted by Okla St, 55-24. However, when the LSU game was finally played (on Nov 15), the Trojans actually led the Tigers by the score of 31-10 at the end of the third quarter in Baton Rogue. Yes, the Tigers outscored the Trojans 30-0 in the 4th to win 41-30, but one couldn't help but be impressed by this program. In 2007's final regular season game, the Trojans lost at home 38-32 to FAU (as a 16-point favorite) and that defeat cost them LY's Sun Belt title (lost tie-breaker to FAU) and at 8-4, the Trojans went bowl-less (most wins by any school to not get a bowl invite that year). Blakeney was determined for that NOT to happen again this year and led by QB Levi Brown (a Richmond transfer), it didn't! Brown replaced injured start Jamie Hampton in late October, passing for 1,775 yards and 14 TDs with just three INTs. The team went 5-2 down the stretch, losing only a one-point game at La-Monroe and that game at Baton Rogue to LSU. RB Harris has 1,025 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 11 TDs), leading a team which runs for 175.4 YPG (5.1 YPC). I really like this team and particularly this coach. On Dec 6, Troy was in a similar setting as last year, needing a win at home to clinch the Sun Belt title and garner a spot in the New Orleans Bowl. Unlike LY, the Trojans easily won this time around, crushing Arkansas St, 35-9. Blakeney's team is used to playing top-notch programs, so a bowl game like this will be nothing new. I believe Troy still has a "chip on its shoulder" for LY's bowl 'snub' and I look for Southern Miss' streak of winning seasons to end here, as Troy wins rather comfortably.
15* Troy.
Las Vegas Insider- NFL
I think one could argue fairly effectively that the Chargers are 2008's most disappointing team. San Diego went an NFL-best 14-2 in 2006 but after losing their first playoff game that year to the Pats, Marty was through (although it took a while). Norv Turner, with no previous success as a head coach, was the late replacement and San Diego got off to a 1-3 start in '07. However, the Chargers finished strong, winning 10 of 12 to go 11-5 on the year. They then did what they couldn't do under Marty and that was win in the playoffs. They beat the Titans at home, won at Indy and then battled the Pats in New England, despite serious injuries to LT, Gates and Rivers. Many felt as if the Chargers were this year's favorites in the AFC. However, it's been a 'nightmare' season of close losses and blown calls. The Chargers enter this game 6-8 and a loss here or a win by Denver (Broncos are home to the Bills), ends San Diego's season. Meanwhile, the Bucs are still very much alive for a wild card spot in the NFC, at 9-5. It hasn't exactly been 'clear sailing' for Tampa Bay though, as Garcia has missed games at QB (he should start here), the team's best runner (Earnest Graham) was lost for the season back in Week 11 (severely hurting the team's red zone offense) plus the team's longtime "go-to" WR (Joey Galloway) has been MIA all season (either hurt or ineffective when available). Through all that and playing in the NFC South, one of the NFL's top-two divisions (only the NFC East has been as good or better TY), the Bucs are still "right there." They are coming off back-to-back division losses, a MNF affair at Carolina (got 'run over' in the 4th quarter) and a heartbreaking three-point OT loss last Sunday in Atlanta. For the record, let's note that the Panthers and Falcons are a combined 14-1 SU at home this year, so Tampa Bay is not alone in losing at those two venues. Rivers has played well for the Chargers (64.6 percent / 28-11 ratio / 101.4 QB rating) but as for LT, it's been a lost year (39 yards for 2.6 YPC last week, giving him 924 YR this season on 3.6 YPC). While Tampa has had some trouble stopping the run on the road, that hasn't been the case at home, where the Bucs have allowed only 60 YPG. The pass defense has been strong all year, allowing only 57.0 percent completions and the third-fewest passing YPG in the NFL (183.7). Tampa also has 21 INTs and a league-high 29 takeaways. It's likely that Garcia will play and that's my preference. He's completed 66.7 percent with a10-3 ratio and owns a QB rating of 94.4. However, Griese won three of four start early TY and while the Bucs lost LW in Atlanta with Griese filling in for Garcia (sat out with calf injury), he did complete 70.3 percent of his 37 attempts for 269 yards. Either QB will face a San Diego pass 'D' which ranks 31st in yards allowed (243.6), allows a league-worst 68.5 percent completions and has allowed 23 TD passes with just 11 INTs. It would be great to have a healthy Graham but "prodigal son" Dunn has 729 YR (4.4 YPC) plus 41 catches this season and Cadillac Williams had his best game LW since his return from an injury (14 carries for 59 yards). While Galloway's done nothing, WR Antonio Bryant has put up Galloway-like numbers (74 catches / 14.1 YPC / 6 TDs) and TEs Stevens and Smith have combined for 53 catches. Let's remember the Bucs are 6-0 SU at home this year, allowing an average of 12.7 PPG, while the Chargers join a group of five "West Coast" teams this year (Arizona, Oakland, San Francisco and Seattle are the others), which are a collective 1-16 SU in games played in the Eastern time zone.
Las Vegas Insider TB Bucs.
JEFF BENTON
15 DIME TEXANS
5 DIME CARDINALS
5 DIME DETROIT
5 DIME BILLS
HalfBets
San Diego v. Tampa Bay
Buccaneers -3.5 Game (8*) GAME OF THE WEEK
Youngstown St v. NC Charlotte m
PICK: NC Charlotte -8.5 1H (6*)
Pittsburgh v. Florida St
PICK: Pittsburgh -4 Game (5*)
Clemson v. Miami (FL)
PICK: Clemson +3 Game (4*)
The Booooj
NFL game of the week
25 units on Philadelphia -5 over Washington
Washington was one of the NFL’s early pleasant surprises, but they have come crashing down recently. Conversely, the Eagles were one of the league’s early disappointments, but look like one of the best teams in the league of late. The Eagles are still in the playoff hunt, and will play like a desperate team. Look for Donovan McNabb to throw the Eagles to the lead early and Bryant Westbrook to finish the Skins off.Philadelphia by 17-21.
3 units on Southern Mississippi +4.5 over Troy
Troy comes in with one of the nation’s most exciting offenses, but will be facing a Southern Miss defense that has been incredible of late. Troy hasn’t missed a beat on offense after losing starting QB Jamie Hampton in October. Expect Troy to score some points early before the Southern Miss defense settles in. The Southern Miss offense is highlighted by a pair of Freshmen, QB Austin Davis and WR DeAndre Brown. The tandem should be enough to keep the Eagles in the game. This is a tough game that could go either way, so tread lightly, but we’ll take the points with Southern Miss. Troy by 3.
PAUL BOVI
FALCONS at VIKINGS
FALCONS +3.5
The Falcons are a team with few weaknesses and come into this one with a few pronounced edges. First off, one should not overrate the Vikings by virtue of their one sided victory over the lethargic Cardinals who had clinched the division the prior week and decided to take last Sunday off. Minny has an average to below average QB, a shaky offensive line, a mediocre secondary and an outstanding running back. The Falcons have an outstanding QB, a great running game, a solid DL, and will win this one as they remain in the hunt. 26-17 Falcons.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Tennessee (NFL) - AiS shows an 82% probability that Tennessee will win this game. Tennessee has a 90% probability that they will not allow 21 or more points in this game. Tennessee is 8-1 ATS last 3 seasons when they allow 15 to 21 points in a game. Tennessee also has a 90% probability of allowing 5.5 or less net passing yards per attempt. note that Tennessee is a perfect 6-0 ATS in that role. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 29-10 ATS for 74% since 2002. Play on any team that is a good team outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game and after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points. Tennessee is also in a solid role as they are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) vs. good passing defenses allowing 175 or less passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
Eddie Mush
Client Picks
4* Vikes -3
4* Steelers -2.5
6* SD +3.5
6* Dolphins -3.5
6* Pats -8
8* NYG -3
25* Skins +5 GOY, 8-0 all time on his GOY
ATS Lock Club
6 units Eagles -4.5
5 units NY Giants -3
4 units Vikings -3
Hoops
3 units Mia Fla -3.5
ATS Financial Package
Hoops
3 units Fla St. +7.5
PSYCHIC
2 units Washington +5
2 units Atlanta +3
3 units Buffalo +7
3 units San Diego +3.5
5 units Kansas City +3.5
WISEGUY
DA STICK
5 units St. Louis +5
5 units over 50 NO-Det
10 units Pittsburgh -2
10 units New England -9
10 units Cleveland -3
10 units Detroit +7
15 units Carolina +3.5
Dr Bob
2 NFL best bets
Seattle - 3* +3.5 or more, 2* +3.
Wash - 2* +3 or more
Northcoast
Total POW
Wash/Phi Under38
Rocketman
Carolina @ NY Giants
Play: 4* NY Giants -3
NY Giants are 26-11 ATS last 3 years and 8-2 ATS this year against conference opponents. NY Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS last 3 years against NFC South division opponents. Carolina is allowing 25.5 points per game on the road this year. NY Giants are scoring 26.7 points per game overall this year and 27.7 points per game at home this season while allowing only 13.9 points per game at home this year. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Giants are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Giants are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games on grass. Giants are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. Giants are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. NFC. We'll play NY Giants for 4 units tonight!
San Diego @ Tampa Bay
Play: 3* Tampa Bay -3
Tampa Bay is 6-0 SU at home this year allowing only 12.7 points per game. Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Buccaneers are 24-9-3 ATS in their last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. We'll play Tampa Bay for 3 units today!