DAVE MALINSKY
4* Miami -3.5
4* Cincy +3
5* Nyg -3 4* Nyg -3.5 or higher
CHARLIE
500* Dolphins @ Chiefs Over 37'
30* Jets -3'
20* Redskins +5
20* Titans +2'
10* Panthers @ Giants Over 37.
Vikings -3 free play
Bestsportspicks
NBA
Clev
NFL
N.O.
MINN.
PITT
PHIL
Jim Feist
Dog Game of the Year
Event: Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Condition: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo (6-8 SU/ATS) has had all kinds of bad luck since their 5-1 start. Despite a heartbreaking loss last week to the Jets, the Bills finished the game with a season-high 187 yards rushing, something they might have success here against this awful Denver rush defense. Second-year QB Trent Edwards (10 TDs, 0 INTs) has a groin injury but is probable to return here on Sunday. With weapons like RB Marshawn Lynch, WRs Lee Evans and slot WR Roscoe Parrish, the Bills gladly look forward to the return of Edwards. The NFC has been on the rise over the last year, and the Broncos got an up-close look Sunday as the Panthers destroyed them, 30-10. Denver (8-6 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) is in first-place in the lousy AFC West. The offense (No. 2 in the NFL) is normally very good behind QB Jay Cutler (24 TDs, 15 INTs) and WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. The Broncos lost their sixth tailback when bulldozing rookie Peyton Hillis went down with a torn hamstring two weeks ago, so they don?t have the offensive balance Mike Shanahan normally likes. RB Tatum Bell, who was selling cell phones last month, started at tailback Sunday (43 yards on seven carries) while RB P.J. Pope rushed for 51 yards. The main problem with this team is that they have holes on defense, especially against the run, giving up 383 yards (142 rushing) to the Jets and 400 yards (147 rushing) Sunday at Carolina. The Broncos started with a unique 4-4 defensive alignment, or four defensive linemen and four linebackers, with Wesley Woodyard officially listed as a strong safety. The idea was to halt Carolina's formidable running back duo, but it left the Broncos with only three defensive backs. The Panthers quickly made the Broncos' strategy look like a silly gimmick as WR Steve Smith went wild. The Broncos allow 26 points per game and are vulnerable to the run, allowing 140 yards per game (27th). The Broncos are still without star cornerback Champ Bailey and all three of their projected starters at linebacker. The last six games the defense has allowed 257, 75, 160, 114, 158, 142, 88 and 147 yards rushing. Denver is 4-3 SU/0-7 ATS at home and 5-19 ATS its last 24 at home. Too many points here for a team that has yet to cover a game at home. The Bills should be able to run at will in this game and with Edwards back, he will keep the Bills close and might even pull out the straight up win.
Scott Spreitzer
TAILOR-MADE BEATDOWN GAME OF THE MONTH! *2-0, 100%!
Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants
Condition: New York Giants
I'm laying the points with the Giants on Sunday night. The defending champs had to take on two incredibly miffed and desperate football teams the last two weeks. They faced the Eagles the week after Philly hit rock bottom in the McNabb benching. They faced the NFL's talented yet disfunctional Cowboys last week. This week, it's the NY Giants who are in a state of desperation, relatively speaking. New York has been dealing with the Plaxcio mess and its "butterfly effect" while facing the last two opponents. Now, after watching the offense stumble for most of the last eight quarters, they need a shot of confidence, themselves. Carolina should provide the sweet elixir. The Panthers have been less than impressive outside of North Carolina. They barely escaped with a 26-24 win at mediocre San Diego. They were thumped at Minnesota and Tampa Bay, getting out-scored 47-13. Carolina won an uninspiring 17-6 game at Oakland, lost 45-28 at Atlanta, and escaped with a last-second win at mediocre Green Bay. Jake Delhomme is the poster-boy for home/road dichomtomy. He owns a 100.8 rating at home and a horrible 63.3 rating on the road! Defensively, Carolina's weakness is matched up against NY's new strength. The Giants don't have a consistent deep threat without Burress. So, they are back to a quick & decisive, underneath passing game. That's exactly the type of offense Carolina struggles against the most. As far as the techs are concerned, Carolina is on a 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS slide against the tough NFC East, while the physical Giants are on a 5-1 SU/ATS run against the NFC South. And, last year's Super Bowl champs are 8-2 SU/ATS in conference play this season, including 26-11 ATS the last three years. I'm laying the points with the Giants, my Tailor-Made Beatdown.
3-PLAY TRIPLE DOG TRIFECTA! **8-1, 89% in '08!
New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks
Condition: Seattle Seahawks
I'm taking the points with Seattle. The Seahawks "brought it" last week on the road and picked up an outright win in St. Louis. I expect another spirited effort in what is supposed to be Mike Holgren's home finale as HC. There's been a little secrecy in practice this week, leading many to think Seattle will pull out all stops to get their popular coach a win. One of the best things they have going for them is that New York has been horrible in west coast games, going 0-3 SU/ATS. As of the time of this typing, it looks as though Seneca Wallace will get the start with Hasselbeck likely only playing in an emergency situation. That suits me just fine. Wallace has been a part of this organiztion for half a dozen years, and gives the Seahawk receivers extra time to get open, thanks to his ability to extend plays with his legs. Wallace also doesn't make costly mistakes. He owns eight TDs in '08 with just one interception in 174 attempts. Brett Favre, meanwhile, has been mistake-prone in those west coast trips mentioned above, throwing six INTs and just one TD. Look for Seattle to add in more blitz packages against the Jets' inconsistent aerial assault. Offensively, I expect the Seahawks to develop the running game right off the bat, then utilize Wallace's strength...play action! The Jets enter this contest 1-4 ATS against losing teams outside of the AFC East. Look for that trend to continue on Sunday. With the Jets stressing for a win and Seattle playing loose, but spirited for Holmgren, I expect an upset in the Emerald City. I'm taking the points with the Seahawks.
Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Condition: Buffalo Bills
I'm taking the points with the Bills. I have been picking my spots in Bronco games this season and have fared quite well. It's never a bad idea to buck the Broncos when laying points at home. They're now on a 2-15 ATS slide as home chalk. They're 0-6-1 ATS at home this season and the offense has been the culprit. The Broncos scored 73 points combined in winning their first two home games of the season. But since then, they have scored 16, 17, 17, 10, and 24. Denver has lost three of their last four home games outright. Buffalo backers received good news on Thursday and Friday when it was announced that QB Trent Edwards practiced both days. In fact, he took most of the snaps on Friday and he's expected to start. Look for Edwards to get RB Lynch involved early and often in this one. Lynch has been slamming the ball right at opposing defenses and I expect a big game from him against Denver's smallish defensive line. Buffalo owns a huge offensive line and the duo of Lynch and Fred Jackson will be tough to stop. Denver is allowing 140 rypg at 4.9 yards per pop. And, they're giving up a hefty 7.3 pypa! The Bills currently own a big advantage at RB and an edge on defense. Having Edwards at QB, just cut into Denver's advantage under center. Denver is stressing the 6-8 Chargers right now in the AFC West, which shows just how average this team truly is. I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs
Condition: Kansas City Chiefs
I'm taking the points with the Chiefs on Sunday. The Dolphins are coming off a non-covering, fortunate win over San Francisco. I say fortunate because they were dominated statistically by the Niners. SFO finished the game with a 24-11 FD advantage and outgained Miami by 70 yards, but couldn't get out of their own way in the redzone. Now, with a 1-5 ATS record as a favorite, the Fins must travel to chilly Arrowhead Stadium. In fact, the temp may be in single digits when this game is being played. Not exactly comfortable weather for the Dolphins. But the Chiefs, not the weather, is the reason I'm backing the underdog. KC has been in six of their last seven games well into the fourth quarter, and they're 5-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. Herm Edwards has his team playing to build momentum for next season. They have been a better team with Tyler Thigpen at QB, and own the type of offense that should fare well against this Dolphin defense. Offensively, Miami has bogged down when it comes to scoring points, averaging just 17.2 ppg in their last five games. In fact, take away the one "outburst" of 28 in a loss to New England, and that average drops to 15.75. The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS this season and 0-8 the last three seasons when laying points in a range that includes Sunday's spread. Finally, it must be noted that Edwards knows Pennington's tendencies, having coached the Miami signal-caller in New York. Look for the Chiefs to pull the upset. I'm taking the points with Kansas City on Sunday.
LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
CINCINNATI BENGALS vs CLEVELAND BROWNS
Play: CLEVELAND BROWNS -3
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Play: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3
NY JETS vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Play: NY JETS -3
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES vs WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Play: EAGLES / REDSKINS OVER 37
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS vs DETROIT LIONS
Play: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7
BUFFALO BILLS vs DENVER BRONCOS
Play: BUFFALO BILLS +7
Opposite Action Plays
NEW YORK GIANTS
JB Sports
NEW YORK GIANTS
Ron Raymond
DETROIT LIONS
Lenny Del Genio
PITT PANTHERS
Tony George
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Nick Parsons
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Kelso
Clubs
10 units Bengals +3
5 units Seahawks +3.5
4 units Carol/Giants UNDER 37
3 units Eagles/Skins UNDER 37
3 units Bengals /Browns UNDER 31.5
BEN BURNS
AFC GOY - Oakland
Divisional GOY - St Louis
Main Event - S Miss
Regular
Seattle
Minn Under
Washington
Bob Balfe
Steelers/Titans Over 34
Both teams are fighting for the number one seed in the AFC. Defense has gotten both squads to the top this year, but today both offenses matchup well against the opposing defense. The Steelers should be able to run the ball well without Vanden Bosch and Haynesworth on the Titans defensive line. Big Ben should also have time to throw to his receivers against smaller Titans cornerbacks. When Tennessee has the ball they should flat out just out muscle the Steelers. The Titans are huge up front and have monster receivers. Both defenses do have the ability to score which should help. Both teams should score enough just on offense to push this over the total. Take the Over.
Redskins +5 over Eagles
All of a sudden the red hot Eagles are hurting on offense. Curtis is not in the lineup and two offensive guards are out. The Eagles have a shot at making the playoffs but they need to win out and need a little help. The Redskins probably will not make the playoffs and would need a miracle to do so, but they are still alive and will at the very least want to send their hated rivals packing. Washington went into Philadelphia earlier this year and won outright so they are perfectly capable of winning at home. The Eagles have played some teams in the last week that were just not prepared due to injuries or drama such as the Giants and I do not think because they beat these teams that they have fixed their problems. The Eagles may squeak out a win, but their is great value in this line. Take the Skins.
Jets -3.5 over Seahawks
The Jets need a big win on the west coast to keep their playoff hopes alive. New York out played Buffalo last week, but special teams and big plays almost cost them the game. New York responded well and their defense made a big play to win the game. This team is confident and with Brett Favre under center they can play with anyone. Seattle is coming off a come from behind win in St. Louis, but I saw a Rams team that just gave up and doesn't really care about the rest of this season. I just do not see Wallace producing as much offense as Favre. Look for the big Jets Defensive Line to bully the Seahawks young and banged up offensive line. Take the Jets.
Chargers +3.5 over Bucs
The Chargers need a win and a Broncos loss to stay alive. Last week San Diego looked down and out only to make a huge 4th quarter run to beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. I know it was the Chiefs they played, but Arrowhead is one of the toughest stadiums to play in. We all know the NFC South has a great home record, but something happened to this Tampa team. Their defense is so banged up and just cannot stop the run. L.T should have a decent day on the ground and the Chargers defense should step up to the task. The loser of this game is out, but I just cant get over how the Bucs lost two games in a row. Momentum is everything in the NFL. Take the Chargers.
Falcons +3 over Vikings
The Vikings are so good at stopping the run however without Pat Williams in the lineup that defensive line just got a whole lot smaller. Matt Ryan has been playing great football and already proved he can win on the road. Last weeks big win in Arizona might give this Vikings team false confidence. The truth is Arizona is in the worst division in football. Tavaris Jackson looked good, but I do not think he is ready to lead this team to the playoffs. Look for a complete team effort from Atlanta. Take the Falcons.
Lions +7 over Saints
Both teams will be home for the playoffs, but the Lions have everything to play for. Next week they will be in the cold in Green Bay and could possibly go 0-16. I am a big believer that this team needs to win today. With the economy being so bad especially in the Detroit area this team will need to be competitive to sell tickets. If this team does not win this year a lot of ticket holders will not be back. This may seem like a far out statement, but this is a big business and you need to sell tickets. The Saints stink on defense anyway and the past couple of weeks there has been tremendous improvement from the Lions. This spread is too high. Take Detroit.
College Football
Southern Miss +4.5 over Troy
Both teams had early season injuries to the starting QB's this season and have handled it well. Southern Miss has not lost a football game since October after starting 2-6 on the year. This team is red hot and playing great defense. Troy was great in the Sun Belt, but it is the worst conference in College Football and I do not think they will stop senior RB Damion Fletcher. Southern Miss has the better defense and should make Troy uncomfortable all night long. The betting public is all over Troy. Take Southern Miss.
NBA Basketball
Wizard +6 over Magic
NCAA Basketball
Clemson +3.5 over Miami