Gameday
4* NY Giants
2* Pitt
2* NY Jets
Wunderdog
New Orleans at Detroit
4 units UNDER 50.5
The Lions are running out of time as they enter this one with a 0-14 record. They stand to become the only team that will forever be entrenched in the NFL record books for absolute futility. It certainly won't be easy to avoid this fate. They have not been able to find stability all season on offense. How can you when you have had three different QBs starting games? None of them ever had a chance to stay long behind center to get in any kind of rhythm. Orlovsky had five starts, Kitna four starts, and Culpepper five starts. Consequently, the Lions have not produced more than 23 points in a game all season long. They have had their QBs sacked 49 times, and have converted just 28% of their third-down attempts. The Saints, without Reggie Bush, carry one surprise into this game. They are considered to be a soft defense, but no running back has gotten 100 yards on them all season! They are the top-ranked offense in the NFL overall, but the numbers on the road haven't been as glossy. Over their last five road games, the Saints have produced just 20.2 points per game. They are dead at 7-7 in terms of finding the playoffs. There are five teams ahead of them in the wildcard standings, and another tied with them, so how much energy will they bring to a game against an 0-14 team? The offense hasn't produced, and attention and motivation here should be low. The Lions haven't produced all season. I like this one to go UNDER the total.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee
4 units Tennessee +2
This may be a first. The Tennessee Titans, who sport the best record in the NFL at 12-2, are a slight dog at home. While I haven't been a big proponent of the Tiants this season, feeling they have been the beneficiary of a soft schedule and a great turnover ratio, they continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, not getting any respect. Their loss at Houston last week plays into this. And, Pittsburgh's five-game winning streak, capped by a win over Baltimore last week also plays a factor. But, should the Titans really be a home dog? I think not! The fact that their opponent is off a win and they are off a loss makes me like them even more. Most got a chance to see Pittsburgh's big defense and win last week, while all that stands out from the Titans game is that they lost. Here is why there is value here. The end of the Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore game last week ended with a controversial Pittsburgh TD. If it was ruled the other way and the Steelers lost, what would this line be? The Titans out-gained the Texans last week by 100 yards and lost by a point. If those two games switched, what would change? The teams wouldn't, but the perception would and that is what drives the line. There is value here because if those changes occurred, Tennessee would be a -3 in this game instead of a +1. The Steelers have now had to bring it three consecutive weeks. First they played the Patriots, then the Cowboys and finally the Ravens. Their most emotional and physical game was last week. They now have to bring it a fourth-straight week, this time against the Titans who will be loaded for bear at home with the playoff-like atmosphere and drive after laying low for a couple weeks. I see a lot of value on the Titans who are 6-1 at home and will be ready to bring it in this one.
San Francisco at St. Louis
3 units San Francisco -5
4 units UNDER 43.5
The Rams have had a dreadful season and have played themselves to a 2-12 record. The actuality is that their season has been even worse than that. They have managed to lose nine of the twelve games by 19 points or more, so even if this team was given 17 points a game in every contest, their record would be 5-9! That is pretty eye-opening, so to back this terrible team hoping for a close game certainly is questionable. The Niners have played with renewed vigor under Mike Singletary. He has this team playing with intensity and purpose. This is a team that isn't playing out the string, but rather playing inspired football, giving it their all week after week. The results have them at 5-1 ATS over the past six weeks. The defense has really picked it up as they have allowed just 31 points in their last three games, or 10.3 ppg, to teams that have averaged 23 ppg. So how do the Rams find the end zone here? They have managed just 93 points in their last eight games, or 11.6 ppg. What is more amazing is 48 of those 93 have come on FGs - or more than half! One of those 19+ point losses came at the hands of the Niners, which are playing at a much higher level now every week. I like San Francisco and the UNDER in this one.
Arizona at New England
4 units Arizona +8
Last week was Arizona's worst game of the year. They got down 14-0 early to the Vikings on a punt return and long TD pass and they never recovered. Combine that with the fact that the Pats are off their best game of the season against Oakland, and the oddsmakers have been fored to inflate this one to offer value on the Cards. These teams are just about a dead-heat statistically on defense and at the same time the Cards have an offensive advantage. Sure, New England has been the "hotter" team of late. But is not too often that you see a line posted at this lofty level when the team getting the points is, at the worst, the just as good on both sides of the ball. Arizona has the QB advantage as Kurt Warner has a rating 10 points higher than Cassel. The Cards get a pass last week as they are a premier team. They clinched the division and had no interest against the Vikings and it showed. They took the week off. They were blitzed by the media, and you can bet they have something to play for here. It is the Patriots and a measuring-stick game for this team, and their ability to go on the road and play a tough team. The weather could become a factor here with rain, snow, and wind in the forecast offering further value in the already inflated line. I'll back the Cards, and fade the Pats here in a buy-low, sell-high situation.
Buffalo at Denver
5 units Buffalo +7
These teams started out the season getting a lot of ink and even Super Bowl talk. But that talk certainly faded from the Bills camp as a 5-1 start became a 1-7 disaster. The Bills have walked a fine line with a small margin of error. Early on, they found ways to win but lately they have found themselves in situations where they find ways to lose. The Bills have been in just about every game they play. During this 1-7 streak, they have lost six of the seven games by 10 points or less, and their largest loss has been 13 points. They are hanging around every game, so the points are enticing here. After a 38 ppg start in the first three games, the Denver offense has been greatly reduced and inconsistent. They have not even reached that 38 point mark once since then. And in eight of their eleven games, they have scored less than 20. The odds-makers have consistently made them a bigger favorite, especially at home, than they should be and it has resulted in them not covering a single game all season at home. They have not covered a game all season, home or away as a favorite of more than three points where they are 0-7 ATS. As I mentioned in my recent blog on lucky NFL teams, Denver could very well be 6-8 right now instead of 8-6. I like the Bills who have been in every game they have played, against a continually overrated Denver team.
Houston at Oakland
5 units Oakland +7
The Houston Texans are mirroring their 2007-08 performance where they recovered from a slow start to reach the .500 mark for the first time. They have now won four straight to lift them to the .500 mark for the first time this year. After their big upset win last week over the Titans, everyone seems to have taken notice. The question is, have the odds-makers now gotten too frisky with this team, placing them as a TD favorite on the road? The answer to that in my opinion is yes. This is an improved team for sure, but one that has been flexing their muscle at home, not on the road. Over the last four seasons the Texans are just 6-25 SU on the road. I don't recall ever seeing a team that has won just 19% of their road games over four seasons, with a similar mark this season at 22%, asked to cover a number this size. They have managed to cover this number in just three of their last 31 road games, and you can be sure they have played teams similar to Oakland in the process. The Raiders may be off their worst game of the year which certainly has something to do with this line. It's painful to back this Raiders team but it is the right side of this game. Let's not forget that the Raiders went to New Orleans and lost 34-3 to the Saints and then beat the playoff-bound division-leading Jets outright. They went to Miami and lost by just two to the Dolphins on a last minute FG. Then came back and beat another division leader, the Broncos, on the road 31-10. They have had their moments while the moments for the Texans on the road winning has not come easy. Winning by this large a number has been a rarity. I'll back the Raiders in this one.
Score
500 Pitt
400 Hou
400 TB
400 NYG
Sports Unlimited
7* Miami -3
4* Detroit/N Orleans over 50'
4* Jets-3'
Underdog Hotline
Lions
JEFFERSONSPORTS
KC CHIEFS +3.5
BUFFALO +4.5
PITT -2.5
MINNESOTA -3
NY GIANTS -3 (im buying to 2.5 even if i lay -150)
SportsBoss
Model Plays 17-6 on season
5* Tennessee (Model Play of Year)
3* Buffalo
Star Plays 25-17-5 on season
4* NY Giants
4* Washington
4* Minnesota
3* Tampa Bay
3* Cleveland
I want to thank everyone today for taking it easy with the refreshing today which kept the site up all morning.
😉
LPW SPORTS FORECASTING
35* PERFECT SITUATION CLUB 16-2 YTD
STL/SF OVER 42 5-0 o/u's
BUFFALO +6
Scott Rickenbach
GAME OF THE YEAR 4-0 100%
2* (Top Play) Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Washington
The two bottom paragraphs below were written early this week. At that time, we did not know that this would end up being our big play this Sunday. However, the value here has been retained in the line this week thanks to the injuries at wide receiver that the Eagles have. That’s right, we can actually view those injuries as a positive. That’s because, without those, this line would likely get out of hand. Instead we’re able to keep the Eagles in a very favorable range here as a road favorite. As we type this up on Saturday afternoon there are some books that have the Eagles as low as a -4. This is a tremendous value. The key here is that, even with injuries to Baskett and Curtis, the Eagles still have plenty of capable wide receivers. Jackson has become the go-to receiver for the Eagles but Avant has also stepped up. Now, due to the injuries this week, Brown will again be called upon and he had one of his best games of the season against the Redskins earlier this year. One note before moving into the “keys” here is that, with regards to the weather, it will be cold in Washington but the rain/freezing rain will be confined to the morning hours Sunday and is not expected to effect this game at all. Chilly conditions for this game but no precipitation expected which means the better offense (the Eagles!) can impose their will in this one!
Perhaps the biggest keys this week are that running back Brian Westbrook is healthy and QB Donavan McNabb is confident again. Ever since he got benched, McNabb has done a fantastic job. Also, Westbrook suffered an injury in the Redskins game earlier this season and he’s back and running at full speed and will give the Redskins trouble all game long in this one. Additionally, Correll Buckhalter has come up with big plays recently and both he and Westbrook are receiving threats out of the backfield. The Eagles backfield is much better shape than that of the Redskins where Portis continues to be bothered with an injury and just isn’t running like he was earlier this season when he faced the Eagles. Also, Philly jumped out 14 to 0 in that game versus Washington but then got dominated the rest of the way. Trust us, they haven’t forgotten. Additionally, Eagles are currently enjoying one of their typical late season surges and in the last three weeks of the season the last two seasons they were a perfect 3-0 ATS. With last week’s dominating win over the Browns on Monday night, that means the Eagles are now a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last three weeks of the season the last 2+ seasons. The ATS late season ride continues here!
From a situational standpoint, this may not seem like a good spot for the Eagles. However, Philadelphia is simply playing on an entirely differently level than the Redskins are right now. That means we are happy to lay a very manageable number on the road in this match-up. Yes, the Eagles are on a short week and yes, they are coming off of three straight big wins. However, they’re offense is running like a well-oiled machine right now and they won’t be stopped by a Redskins team that is now ready to end the season. The Skins basically can’t wait for the season to be over after yet another loss last week at (of all places!) Cincinnati! The Bengals beat the Redskins by a TD even though it was Washington that was favored by a TD in that match-up. Sure Washington would love to “step up” and score an upset win here to put an end to the Eagles playoff hopes but they just don’t have the team to do that right now!
The Redskins have continued to sputter on offense as they try to adjust to a new head coach. Also, at this late point in the season, you have to have a solid offense to compete. The defenses are starting to wear down and that’s why a team like the Redskins, still with a respectable defense, is finding it hard to win any late season football games! Their defense is getting worn down and they don’t have the offense to keep up with the opposition. Sadly, for them, that even is the case when the opposition is a pathetic Bengals team! The Eagles roll continues as they are playing some of the best football in the league right now while the Redskins continue to play some of the worst! The Eagles pass rush has another big day and disrupts an already stumbling Washington offense! At the same time, the Eagles offense will not be slowed down, not with a healthy Brian Westbrook dominating defenses! We feel all of the above factors help lead to a solid road win here. Play Philadelphia minus the points as a Top Play selection.
Randy Radke
Minnesota -3
Giants -3.5
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
ST. JOHN’S (-1) over Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech was supposed to be an improved team with 4 returning starters, but that simply hasn’t been the case. The Hokies have actually been a bit worse than last season and their rating using this year’s games is only 1 point higher than that of St. John’s. With the Red Storm hosting this tournament, they should be a bigger favorite than 1 point even with Justin Burrell out. The Johnnies also apply to a 131-45-4 ATS home momentum situation and a 77-29-5 ATS home tournament final angle. I’ll take St. John’s in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less.2-Stars at -2 or less.