Gamebreaker's (Kevin Kavitch)
10-5-1 YTD 2-0 on 5* Top Play
Jacksonville/Indianapolis
Too many points to give a solid 0-2 Jags teams. I've bet against Jacksonville the past 2 weeks but that was due to the value their opponents were getting(Bills & Titans). Both the Bills and Titans are much improved this year and the Jags lost 2 tight games. The Jags are a good team, they'll be hungry and they've proven they can hang with Indy. The Colts have their own issues, especially their run defence right now. With safety Sanders now out, the Jags 0-2 start to ensure focus, and +5 points, this is a Top. Take Jacksonville for a 5* Top Play.
Matty O'Shea
Triple-Dime Bet
PHI / PIT Under 45.0
We saw a big contrast in the way each of these teams played last week, as the Steelers earned a 10-6 victory at Cleveland while the Eagles lost a tough 41-37 decision at Dallas on Monday night. The public knows both are capable of putting up a lot of points, proven in Week 1 when each scored 38 in easy wins. However, I believe this will be a much lower-scoring game due to the fact that Pittsburgh's defense will limit Philly's passing game and pressure Eagles QB Donovan McNabb a lot more than he had to deal with on Monday night. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will be ready for McNabb, and I also think that his QB Ben Roethlisberger will be somewhat limited by a shoulder injury. I see both teams running the ball and the clock in a defensive struggle. That's why I'm betting the UNDER as my Triple Dime NFL Total Play O' the Month
RON RAYMOND
5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH!
Baltimore Ravens -3.0
Joyce Sterling
10* GOW
Cincinnati +13.5
King Creole
triple-dime bet
BUF / OAK Over 36.5
3*BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Optimum OU line is 36.5 or less
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
3*BEST BET: OVER THE TOTAL
Optimum OU line is 42.5 or less
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Optimum OU line is 37 or less
TIME ZONE alert! With two qualifying games on the Sunday week three schedule, it's time to dust off one of King's FAVORITE "Over" Systems. It's already gone 1-0 so far this season. And when this scheduling situation arises, I'm "ALL IN".
NFL WESTERN time zone teams who are ROAD UNDERDOGS versus NFL EASTERN time zone teams are 20-4-1 O/U in the first half of the season over the last 4 years. This System only applies when we have a legit 3-time zone crossover... and the game MUST kick off at 1:00pm ET (the early kicks). Our only other qualifier so far in 2008 was Seattle @ Buffalo in week one (a King 3** Play). That game EASILY went OVER the total (final score 34-10). We also note that within this 20-4-1 O/U System, games involving teams from the SAME Conference are a very impressive 12-1 O/U. Both of our Best Bets are active this week (RAIDERS and CARDINALS).
Both the Raiders and the Bills are off big road UNDERDOG wins last week (vs the Jags and Chiefs respectively). That's another GREAT sign for an OVER in this week of the season.
GAME THREE teams playing off a road UNDERDOG win (Raiders) are 7-1 O/U in the last 3 years... and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U when their opponent is ALSO off an UNDERDOG win (Bills).
Non-division games have a very high OVER tendency during this particular week, as well. And all THREE of our plays are of the non-divisional variety.
In the last 3 years, GAME THREE non-division home teams are 23-11-2 O/U... and 12-4 O/U if our host is taking on an opponent that's off a SU win. Our FOUR qualifiers on Sunday are: BILLS... REDSKINS... VIKINGS... and BEARS. We also note that in the last 2 years, the results are an almost=PERFECT 9-1 O/U.
The Vikings lost a game last week at home (vs the Colts) in which they STATISTICALLY should have won with ease. They held the Colts to only 25 yards rushing... and ran the ball for over 170 yards at HOME. There's only been 17 such cases in the last 20 years. And these teams have gone 13-4 O/U in their next game.... and 6-1 O/U in the last 6 years. The official query is: ANY teams (regardless of game #) playing off a SU home loss with 170+ rushing yards. **FLIP-SIDE "Freebie": On the other hand, NFL teams that are off a SU win in which they rushed for 30 or less yards (Colts) are 1-9 O/U as favorites in their next game.
The Redskins come in off a Game One road loss to the Giants (16-7) and a Game Two home win against the Saints (29-24). I queried previous teams in the same situation, and came up with this:7-1 O/U last 3 years: GAME THREE teams off a SUATS home favorite win... and a SUATS road loss in the game before that (Redskins).
The OU line ranges that we have chosen to play our OVERS with are pretty favorable during this week, as well. These are based on the closing OU lines in a week three game
Last 10 years: 12-3 O/U with an OU line range of 37.5 to 38 (Vikings?)
Last 8 years: 6-1 O/U with an OU linen range of 43 to 43.5 for home favs of < 10 points (Redskins?)
Last 6 years: 10-2 O/U with an OU line range of 35.5 to 36.5 points (Bills?).
When both teams come into week three feeling good about themselves (as in a SUATS win), the results are TOP-HEAVY with high scoring results. Since 1999, GAME THREE road dogs are 7-1 O/U when BOTH teams pare playing off a game two SU and ATS win. In the last 5 years, these teams are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U. And our two qualifiers are the BILLS-RAIDERS game and REDSKINS-CARDINALS game.
Gamebreaker's (Kevin Kavitch)
10-5-1 YTD 2-0 on 5* Top Play
Jacksonville/Indianapolis
Too many points to give a solid 0-2 Jags teams. I've bet against Jacksonville the past 2 weeks but that was due to the value their opponents were getting(Bills & Titans). Both the Bills and Titans are much improved this year and the Jags lost 2 tight games. The Jags are a good team, they'll be hungry and they've proven they can hang with Indy. The Colts have their own issues, especially their run defence right now. With safety Sanders now out, the Jags 0-2 start to ensure focus, and +5 points, this is a Top. Take Jacksonville for a 5* Top Play.
ADDING
Yeah, Chargers were robbed and are much better than their 0-2 record. But the Jets aren't slouches and came closer to beating the Pats last week than 19-10 suggests. Jets can defend the pass and generate a rush, they can play solid D, and Favre now has 2 full games under his belt with the Jets. Maybe even more important, the Jets coaches may have learned something from their dumb playcalling. One final thought. The thinking by the public will be San Diego is mad and will hammer the Jets. But the Jets aren't punching bags and often teams that are screwed the previous week spend too much time whining and dwelling on what happened to be sharp. Teams that blew it themselves have better motivation which isn't the case here. Weird dynamic but every season these screwed teams disappoint ATS more often than not. I'll back the Jets to hang within the big number. Take the NY Jets +9 for a 3* Regular Play.
Public perception has made the Cowboys 3 pt favorites. Green Bay is too solid of a team to be 3 point dogs and Rodgers has silenced the critics with his play and leadership. I like the Packer D better than the Cowboy D and Dallas is off a divisional barnburner which could have them less than 100% here. Solid angle supporting this play with the home dog having the ability to put up points. Take the Packers +3 for a 4* Regular play.
Dr. Bob NFL
I was really looking forward to handicapping this week's NFL card after going 2-0 on my Best Bets and 5-0 on my Strong Opinions last week. However, there isn't anything this week that I liked enough to bet, so I'm passing. I do have two strong opinions (Washington and SF). The number of Best Bets is always low in the first few weeks of the season but it picks up when my math model kicks in in week 5.
Strong Opinion
WASHINGTON (-3.0) 23 Arizona 14
Arizona is 2-0, but the Cardinals were fortunate to beat the 49ers in week 1 (out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.8 yppl, but +5 in turnovers) and beating up on Miami isn’t that impressive. Washington , meanwhile, lost their opener to a very good New York Giants team and then bounced back to beat a pretty good New Orleans squad in a performance that was more impressive than the 29-24 score indicates (the Redskins averaged 6.8 yppl and held the Saints’ explosive attack to 4.7 yppl). Washington has out-gained their opponents by 0.6 yppl (5.6 yppl to 5.0 yppl) while Arizona has out-gained their foes by 0.7 yppl (5.9 yppl to 5.2 yppl), but the Redskins have faced a better than average schedule (NYG and NO) while Arizona has faced a mediocre San Francisco team and a bad Dolphins squad. My ratings favor Washington by 6 ½ points and the Cardinals apply to a negative 123-190-6 ATS statistical profile indicator. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at -3 or less (-120 or less) and I’d take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ or less (-115 odds or better). I’ll also lean under on the basis of a 55-19-2 Under situation.
Strong Opinion
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.0) 28 Detroit 19
The 49ers are an underrated team that has combined a resurgent offense with an improved defense to become a better than average team. San Francisco dominated Arizona 6.8 yards per play to 4.3 yppl in their opener, but lost that game due to a -5 in turnover margin (4 lost fumbles) and then they bounced back with an upset win at Seattle in which they out-gained the Seahawks 5.8 yppl to 4.9 yppl. The Niners’ offense can run the ball with Frank Gore (4.8 ypr) and they can now throw it with J.T. O’Sullivan running new offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ system with aplomb. O’Sullivan has averaged 9.9 yards per pass attempt and he’s averaged 7.1 yards per pass play despite taking too many sacks (12 so far). The Niners’ defense has allowed only 4.6 yppl and have been especially good against the pass (5.1 yppp allowed), which should serve them well in this game against a pass-heavy Lions’ attack. The Lions continue to throw the ball often (42.5 pass plays per game), but Kitna was just average last season on a yards per pass play basis and he’s averaged 6.0 yppp in two games this season while continuing to throw too many interceptions (42 in two previous seasons with Detroit and 4 picks in 2 games this season). Detroit ’s rushing attack has managed just 3.4 ypr so far and their offense is about average overall from a yards per play perspective (although worse than average when you factor in the interceptions). Detroit ’s defense is what is making them a bad team, as the Lions gave up 9.2 yards per play to Atlanta and then gave up 6.7 yppl in a 25-48 home loss to Green Bay . Using this year’s stats only would favor San Francisco by 18 points and my ratings favor the Niners by 13 points in this game. Unfortunately, San Francisco applies to a negative 21-58-2 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win last week, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at -5 points or less.
The King Maker
Double-Dime Bet
Carolina Panthers +3.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Double-Dime Bet
WAS / ARI Under 43.0
Last week the Redskins gave up 24 points to the Saints but that is a bit deceiving! Washington only allowed New Orleans 16 first downs and they held them to a total of 250 yards of offense. In fact, Washington?s defensive stats are quite respectable so far this season even though they?ve allowed an average of twenty points per game. Now we get a solid match-up this week that favors the under. Washington?s game went over the total last week as did Arizona?s. However, like the Redskins, the Cardinals were actually quite respectable on defense. The Cards only allowed 10 points and 236 yards of offense to the Dolphins. The only reason the game got over is because Arizona?s offense erupted for 31 points. However, that was against a suspect Dolphins defense and now, the Cardinals will be dealing with a much more respectable defense. At the same time, Washington will be facing an Arizona defense that has been very strong this season particularly against the run. Overall, the Cardinals have allowed just 23 points and they?ve employed a bend but don?t break defense that has frustrated the opposition. Keep in mind that when these teams last met the Redskins scored 19 points but a lot of that was due to two interceptions. Washington only had ten first downs and only 160 yards against the Cards in that game. Coming into this game, the Redskins offense is still trying to adjust to their new schemes under a new coaching staff. Yes, they were able to put up solid numbers against the Saints last week but that defense has struggled badly so far this season. Also, New Orleans was without three starters on defense last week! The Saints also struggled in the heat and humidity last week as they?re a dome team. In other words look for the Redskins to find the yardage much tougher to come by this week. Also, the Cardinals blitz a lot and run a lot schemes on defense that will be tough on Redskins QB Campbell. While we respect the Skins defense, we also know the Cardinals defense will be heard from in this game too. That?s why the play here is the UNDER
Tony George
NYG -13.0 vs CIN
NY Giants -13
The whole world thinks Cincy will cover here. They have played as bad as any AFC team this season to date and their defense against this offense of NY with Manning on fire, and RB Jacobs is a total mis-match unless NY simply does not show up. The Bengals defense is giving uop almost 5 yards per carry which id a long and slow death ofr any team in the NFL. Cincy is scoring 8 ppg, they have no running game and contant pressure on QB Palmer has resulted in bad timing with receivers and turnovers and many 3 and outs this season.
NY Giants defense will not give up points with ease, and with their multiple blitz packages should fluster Palmer all day long. New York should put up at least 28 here and doubt Cincy gets 10..I am laying the wood in this one. In the last 8 games NY is 8-0 ATS, and they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 and though they played average at best against a bad team last week on the road, they hammered the Rams 41-13, which is scary .
Play the Giants for 1 Unit
2 Team 6 Point Teaser....tease Houston up to +10.5 and tease the Packers up to +9 and play it for 1 Unit.....Thanks and good luck..Tony George
JAC +5.0 vs IND
Jacksonville +5
The Jags ALWAYS play the Colts tough and Indy overrated with OL line issues, the offense is not clicking and Bob Sanders is out. Jax playing with double revenge and in a foul mood after 2 straight losses. Jax looks to get running game going after only puttting up 65 yards a game so far, and Colts run D giving up 4.9 yards per game. This takes pressure off of QB Garrard having to throw as much. Losses to Tennessee and Buffalo, both teams have better defense's that the Colts....like the Jags to keep it close, 3 points one way or the other here in a tight game. Jags are due to a win both in the regular season and in this series. Key injury to Colts Center a big concern here as well,.
Play 1 Unit on Jacksonville
CAR +3.5 vs MIN
Carolina +3.5
An injued Adrian Petersen at RB who will not be 100%, the return od WR Steve Smith for Carolina who is rolling right now and gaining confidence. Gus Freotte starts at QB for an inept passing attack for Minny who is off the heels of a loss against a overrated Colts team at home. Carolina 8-3 ATS on the road their last 11. I think Carolina is vastly under rated and Minny overrated and very thin at WR. With RB Petersen not 100% nursing a hamstring, and QB Freotte a career backup for the most part, Carolina has more offense and WR Smith can make big plays.
Play 1 Unit on Carolina
JB Sports
Double-Dime Bet
NOS +6.0 vs DEN
Double-Dime Bet
HOU +4.5 vs TEN
BEN BURNS
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
The defending champs are off to an impressive 2-0 SU/ATS start while the Bengals have struggled out of the gate, going 0-2 SU/ATS. As you probably know, the lines on defending Super Bowl champions are typically quite high to begin with. The fact that the Giants now also come in as the hotter team has caused this line to be extremely high. I believe that it's too high. Note that the last time that the Giants were laying a number in this range was way back in 2006 when they were -13 point home favorites vs. Houston. (The Giants won by only four points.) Keep in mind that this is a team which has won by playing strong defense, not by blowing teams away. That's great for winning games but doesn't necessarily help when trying to cover two touchdown pointspreads. In fact, prior to last week's blowout win over the Rams (which was close for much of the way) the Giants had seen seven straight games decided by 10 points or less. Even including the victory over the Rams, the Giants have still only won two of their past 15 games by double-digits. It's true that Cincinnati's off-field problems have been well-documented. Those "issues" have further helped to keep this line generously high. The Bengals' still has plenty of talent though. They entered the season with fairly lofty expectations and they know that falling to 0-3 will be a very tough hole to climb out of. As a result, I expect them to play with a real sense of desperation. As QB Palmer had to say: "It seems like it's the end of the world to a lot of people. This team has a lot of hope left. We have a lot to play for, a lot of pride. The Giants started 0-2 (last season). A lot can be done from 0-2." The Bengals have only been underdogs in this range once since back in 2000. That came in 2002, when they were +13.5 dogs at Indianapolis. The Bengals covered the spread in that game (lost by 7) and are a highly profitable 9-3 ATS the last 12 times they were underdogs of greater than eight points overall. Look for them to improve on those numbers, giving the defending champs a much tougher game than most are expecting. *Non-Conference GOM
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Under
It's true that the Lions have a ton of points through the first two games and also that the 49'ers are coming off a high-scoring game vs. the 49'ers. Those results have caused this number to be very high and it's also been bet up from its opening number, providing us with excellent value. The earlier results have come against vastly different opponents and in the Lions' case, they've been forced to abandon the running game early due to falling behind each game. Make no mistake though - the Lions want to run the ball. They also want to control the clock. Last week's game got out of hand. However, the final score appears a lot worse than it really was, as the Packers ran back two interceptions for touchdowns in the final three minutes. The score also doesn't show that the Lions' defenders were actually playing quite well to begin the game. They got pressure on Aaron Rodgers twice on third and long and both times they nearly had the sack. If they had gotten him on either of those plays, that game likely would have been much lower-scoring. In both cases, Rodgers barely escaped and was able to complete a big play. Afterwards, things snowballed. However, my point is that I watched the game closely (a few times now) and there were positive signs evident on the defensive side of the ball, which aren't seen in the boxscore. While San Francisco J.T. O'Sullivan has been playing well, it's still a little too early to be calling him the next great 49'ers QB. Additionally, with offensive coordinator Martz leaving Detroit for San Francisco, both teams are still quite new to their offensive systems. While Martz has the 49'ers throwing the ball more this year, running back Frank Gore still remains a focal point of the offense and one game doesn't prove that Martz is quite as pass-happy as he was several years ago. Note that the 49'ers have seen the UNDER go 10-3 since 2006 when playing a game with an over/under line in the 42.5 to 49 range. As for the Lions, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 15-5-1 their last 21 road games with an over/under line ranging from 45.5 to 49. These teams last met in 2006 and combined for just 32 points. Look for the final score to be much lower-scoring than expected once again. *Annihilator
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Under
Last week's results have helped cause tonight's over/under line to be extremely high - the highest on the Week 3 board. I believe that it's too high. It's important not to over-react to one week. Yes, these teams have shown they can score. They aren't going to score the type of points they did last week every time out though. Additionally, we've seen that both defenses are capable of being excellent. Prior to Monday's shootout, the Cowboys had gone into Cleveland and limited the Browns to 10 points and 205 total yards. As for the Packers, they held the Vikings to just three first half points in Week 1 and repeated that performance by limiting the Lions to just three first half points last week. A quick look at the Packers' last 20 home games shows that NONE of them had an over/under line greater than 46.5 points. Seventeen of those 20 games produced 48 combined points or less. As for the Cowboys, they've only seen one of their past 20 road games have an over/under line above 50 - a December game at Detroit last year which had an over/under line of 50.5. Fourteen of those 20 games produced 51 combined points or less. The last three all finished UNDER the total with scores of 20-13, 27-6 and 28-10. Look for this evening's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again as the final combined score stays beneath the inflated number. *Main Event
Brandon Lang
20 Dime Patriots
5 Dime Packers
FREE - Cowboys/Packers OVER
DAVE MALINSKY
5* Steelers/Eagles Under
4* Jaguars
4* Browns/Ravens Under
Monday
4* Jets
BIG AL
52-13 NFL B-L-O-W-O-U-T OF THE MONTH
At 8:15 PM, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers plus the points over the Dallas Cowboys. Although I've been critical of the Green Bay management for not taking back Brett Favre, I must tip my cap to Aaron Rodgers, who has played extremely well in his two starts vs. Minnesota and Detroit. And perhaps it isn't all that big of a surprise, given that Rodgers played very well last season against these Cowboys after Favre went down with an injury. In last year's game, Rodgers was 18 for 26 for 201 yards and a TD, without any turnovers. And this season, he's completed 70% of his passes, without any interceptions. Off that win at Detroit, the Packers fall into 82-27 and 52-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home teams off road wins. Also, Green Bay has won 10 of its last 11 regular season home games, and the Cowboys are 0-5 in their franchise's history at Lambeau Field, with four of those five losses coming by 18+ points. NFL Blowout of the Month on Green Bay.