SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

RON RAYMOND

5* Patriots / BillsUnder 40

DAVE MALINSKY

5* Greenbay -10

Kevin Kavitch

I don't take many favorites and double-digit favs are extremely rare for me. Here's why I'm recommending the Ravens. To me, they are a playoff quality team and they will be highly motivated knowing if they win, they're in. Personally, I think this could be the dark-horse of the 2008 playoffs with a killer D and capable offense. Baltimore is 8-2 SU & ATS their last 10 and Flacco getting more experience is a big reason following their 2-3 start. I think they cover the big number because their D can be dominant at home and the atmosphere will be nuts. Offensively they've scored 30+ in 3 of their last 5 and have won by 14+ in 6 of their last 10. The Jags D has been well below average and have allowed 30+ in 3 of their last 5. The potential is there for a lopsided win. Take Baltimore -11 for a 3* Regular Play.

I'm backing Detroit to put up a fight and cover. Last week we lost with them in a game that got out of control and snowballed. I'll give them credit for not making excuses but info came out Sunday that quite a few players including Orlovsky were hammered by a nasty flu bug. I wonder if that played a role once they fell behind considering they had fought hard and covered vs Minesota and Indy the 2 previous weeks. It could also mean a better effort this week. I do expect their best effort Sunday facing the infamous 0-16. If they were a fractured team with no talent I wouldn't touch them. But this isn't a divided team, just a losing one. They've shown they have some talent when they have their heads screwed on straight (especially on offense and their kicking game) and I expect Orlovsky to play well. They talk about the team not winning in Green Bay since 1991 or whatever it is. Who cares? Anyone that thinks what happened between around 1991-2004 is clueless. Actually, sportsbooks LOVE these types of deep thinkers because they tend to lose alot of cash. Let's not worry about the fact not a single player or coach was on either roster from those 90's teams. Actually, there's your quality control check. If you see any handicapper say that's part of their rationale for picking a winner in this game, you know they're a joke. Guaranteed some will and also charge a pretty penny for this rocket-scientist-like insight. Green Bay has lost some close ones and they're better than they're 5-10 record. They definitely won't want to lose this one. But let's keep in mind this is a team that has lost 5 straight and 7 of their last 8. You want to lay double-digits with them vs a truly desperate opponnent? Will the Lions win? I don't know and part of me wants to see a 0-16 train wreck. But I do think the Lions going to fight hard and they're not playing a dominant opponent by any stretch of the imagination. That will be good enough to cover. Take Detroit +10.5 for a 3* Regular Play

Lee Kostroski

9* NFL Game of the Month - Houston (-) vs. Chicago
PICK: Houston Texans -2.5

We see great value here on the Texans, who are playing for a second straight .500 record season and hoping the crush the Bears playoff hopes. Everyone will be on Chicago because they need to win to have any chance at the post-season. Problem is, those teams that "have to win" don't always do so. This will be one of those games.

Houston is 4-1 in their last 5 games with a hiccup coming last week against the Raiders. The Texans are 5-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming against the Colts and the Ravens. The Bears are playing on a short weeks rest after getting beat up in a very emotional win vs. their bitter rival Packers on Monday Night last week in -5 degree temperature. The Bears are also coming off three straight home games including back-to-back overtime wins needed just to stay in the playoff race.

The Bears offense was anemic in the first 3 ½ quarters of the Packer game on Monday night before finally turning it on in the final minutes. Chicago has failed to reach 300 total yards in each of their past 4 games. If the Bears hope to stay in this game vs. the Texans they will need a better offensive performance. Houston is 3rd in the league in total offense and 4th in passing offense with Andre Johnson leading the NFL with 1427 yards receiving. That's not good news for the Bears, who give up the 3rd most passing yards per game, allowing 235 yards passing per game.

Rookie running back Steve Slaton is averaging over 100 yards rushing per game in the past 6 games and that is a big reason the Texans are 4-2 in that stretch; if Slaton can have that type of productivity vs. the Bears on Sunday, expect a big offensive day from the Texans. The Bears are just 3-4 on the road this season with the wins coming against relatively weak opponents: the Lions, Rams and the week 1 Colts (Indy started the season 3-4 before winning 8 straight). Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games and we expect that trend to continue against the Bears on Sunday.

Smart money is all over Houston here as the line opened pick-em and now the Texans are -3. That's despite a majority of the bets actually coming in on Chicago as expected. Take the Texans.

5* San Francisco (-) vs. Washington
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -3

The Niners just signed Head Coach Mike Singletary, agreeing to bring him back for the 2009 NFL season. It’s no question that San Francisco has been playing much more inspired football since the defensive minded Singletary took over. They are 4-2 in their past 6 games (4 away games, 2 home games) and allowing just 16 points per game in that span. Expect Singletary to have the 49ers ready to play and finish out the season on a good note heading into the 2009 season.

Washington started the season 6-2, but since then they have gone just 2-5. The Redskins just got a much-needed win against Philadelphia to stop a three game losing skid. They now have to travel to the west coast for an ultimately meaningless game vs. the suddenly inspired 49ers. Washington will likely have the mentality of a ‘good team’ that is going to miss the playoffs; therefore “what is there left to play for?” Expect the Redskins to be flat and for the Niners to take advantage of that and get the big win on Sunday.

Washington’s offense has turned off in the second half of the season. After averaging 21 points per game in their first 8 games, the Redskins have put up an average of just 10.8 points per game in their last 7 games (including 10 points or less in 5 of 7). Jason Campbell was supposed to have a breakout season under quarterback friendly Head Coach Jim Zorn, but he has failed to meet expectations. Campbell has thrown for just over 3000 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions (with just 4 touchdowns and all 6 interceptions coming in the 2nd half of the season).

Washington is just 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a losing record and just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and we expect these trends to continue into Sunday. Look for the more inspired 49ers to get the win over the team with nothing to play for. Go with the Niners.

4* Arizona (-) vs. Seattle
PICK: Arizona Cardinals -7

Last week Seattle had a very emotional home win vs. the Jets. Mike Holmgren coached his last game in Seattle and they sent him out in style with a 13-3 win. Players and coaches both mentioned that this was the biggest game for them because they wanted to send Holmgren out a winner. Now they have to travel to Arizona, a team in desperate need of a win to get back on track for the playoffs. Arizona has lost two straight games by a combined score of 82-21. The Cardinals are just 1-4 in their last 5 games and they will need (and get) a much-needed win to prepare for the playoffs.

Arizona is 5-2 at home this season; and they will be happy to return home after their snowy 47-7 loss @New England. The Cardinals were also without Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin. Boldin will be back this Sunday and we expect Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin to all get back on the same page heading into the playoffs. Warner averages 288 yards passing per game on an offense that ranks 5th in total yards per game and 5th in scoring offense. This isn’t good news for the Seahawks, who have injuries all over their defense and rank dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game.

Arizona and Seattle last met on November 16 in Seattle. The Cardinals had no problems moving the football, amassing 458 total yards and 24 first downs, but settled for 4 field goals instead of touchdowns. They won 26-20 but it should’ve been a bigger margin of victory. Also in that game, Arizona allowed only 196 total yards to the Seahawks. We expect Arizona to dominate the stats again on Sunday and for the Cardinals to come out with another win. Seattle has lost the last two @Arizona and we expect that streak to continue. Go with the Cardinals.

Tim Trushel

20* Jets

Tom Stryker

Houston

Jets

LARRY NESS

25-Club Play (3-0 TY in NFL!)

The Mike Hologren era is officially ending in Seattle with this Week 17 game in Phoenix against the Cards. Holmgren took over as Seattle's GM and head coach prior to the 1999 season and promptly guided the Seahawks to an AFC West title and their first playoff appearance since 1988. Entering this year, the Seahawks had been to five straight postseasons (including a Super Bowl appearance vs the Steelers at the end of the 2005 season), which was tied with the Pats for the second-longest active playoff streak. However, 2008 has not been the type of 'farewell tour' Holmgren had hoped for. The Seahawks have a mediocre running game (112.1 YPG with just nine rushing TDs), All-pro QB Hasselbeck has been hurt for the better part of the season and the team's receiving corps is sadly pathetic. Seattle ranks 26th in PPG (18.2) and 28th in YPG (270.3). Seattle was 2-11 before back-to-back wins over the Rams and Jets plus last week's 13-3 win over the Jets is hardly typical of the team's defensive effort, as Seattle enters the final game of the season ranked 30th in YPG (372.7). Beating the Jets in Holmgren's final home game was a nice "send-off" but let's remember that the Jets are in a 'free-fall' (have lost THREE of four and are in danger of missing the playoffs), while Seattle's other three wins this year have come by beating the Rams twice (St Louis is arguably the NFL's worst team at 2-13 with the NFL's worst point-differential at minus-229) and the 49ers in Mike Singletary's head coaching debut (San Fran is a different team now). As for the Cards, they've ended the NFL's longest active playoff-drought this year (last postseason for Arizona was in 1998) and are division-winners for the first time since the franchise won the NFC East while in St Louis in back in 1975. However, the Cards have lost 35-14 at home to Minnesota (were down 28-0 at then half) and 47-7 at New England (were down 31-0 at the half) the last two weeks (since clinching that division title). It's a weird situation for the Cards, as the results of the last two games make them the first team since the 1961 Raiders to trail 28-0 or worse at half in consecutive games. They're also the first team in NFL history to trail by 30-plus points at halftime twice and still make playoffs in that season (the Cards also trailed the Jets 34-0 at the half in a 56-35 Week 4 loss). So what are we to make of the Cards this week? Their playoff seeding is locked up and the Cards won't want to risk injury to QB Kurt Warner, RB Tim Hightower plus WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. However, reports indicate that the Cardinals are going to take this as a serious game, despite the fact that it means nothing in regards to the playoffs. We've already seen the line move quite a bit towards them. Kurt Warner is off his worst game of the season last week in New England, completing 6-of-18 passes for 30 yards with no TDs and no INTs (42.4 rating). Still, it's been quite a "comeback year" for the two-time MVP, who has completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,320 yards with 26 TDs and 13 OINTs (95,5 rating). Fitzgerald (91 catches / 10 TDs) and Boldin (89 catches / 11 TDs) are both over 1,000 yards receiving and look for Breaston (72 catches / 915 yards) to join them this week. The running game is a mess (71.3 YPG ranks 32nd) but let's look at what the Cards have accomplished this year. They've been obliterated on the East Coast, going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, getting outscored 202-102. However, they are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their other 10 games. All reports are that head coach Whisenhunt feels his team can't head into the playoffs (and have any chance at being successful), playing the way it has the last two weeks. I agree with that logic and the conventional wisdom of "giving up in Week 17 games" with nothing on the line may have been "shown up" last year, when Tom Coughlin's Giants went "all out" against the Pats in their Week 17 (also with no playoff implications on the line) and then made that historic playoff run which ended with a Super Bowl win. There is no Super Bowl in the future for Phoenix but an easy win over Seattle, a team which played its 'game' last week at home vs the Jets, is in the 'CARDS!'

Las Vegas Insider

Remember when everyone was 'singing' the praises of first-year head coach Jim Zorn? Well that was then and this is now? Remember when Mike Singletary "went off" after his first game as San Francisco's interim coach and everyone wondered if "Mike ready for the big time?" Well, that was then and this is now! I don't need any real in-depth analysis in this one. The Redskins opened 6-2 with Jason Campbell 'disguised' as a real NFL QB. That was then and this is now. After throwing eight TDs and no INTs in the team's 6-2 start, the Redskins are 2-5 since, averaging a pathetic 10.9 PPG (topping 13 points just once, in a 20-17 Week 12 win at Seattle). Campbell looks 'lost' in the offense, with four INTs and six INTs in the seven games with his highest QB rating in any of the seven games being 64.7. However, it's not just his fault. Zorn, never a head coach anywhere before TY (never even a coordinator, either!), seems more lost than Campbell and his handling of the Portis "situation" was brutal. Portis topped 100 yards in five of his first eight games but has done that just once since, in Week 12. The next two games he carried just 11 times in each game (for a total of just 54 yards!) and then after "open warfare" with his head coach, carried 47 times the last two games, gaining only 147 yards. That's a 2.9 YPC average the last four games. As for Singletary, his tirade (and his coaching) have turned the tide in San Francisco. Shaun Hill is 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS as starting QB (coincides with Singletary taking over), as he's completed 62.0 percent with 12 TDs and seven INTs for a QB rating of 87.1. JT O'Sullivan was 2-6 as a starter (off five straight losses when replaced), completing 58.2 percent with eight TDs and 11 INTs (73.6 rating). Gore (978 YR / 4.1 YPC / 6 Tds / 42 catches) is expected to play and he'll get his 1,000-yard season. Veteran WR Isaac Bruce has been a"new man" under Singletary, with 33 catches (6.6 per) over his last five games, after nabbing just 26 catches through his first 11 (just over two per game). The defense has allowed just 47 points over its last four (11.8 PPG) and and allowed average of just 14 FDs per game and 257.7 YPG over its last three. That theme of "that was then and this is now" just keeps 'ringing' in my ears. Washington is traveling for the third time in four games and must go all the way to San Francisco for this totally meaningless game.

Las Vegas Insider on the SF 49ers

Spylock

New Orleans 5 units
Buffalo 1 unit

N. Illinois 1 unit

SIXTH SENSE

TAMPA BAY –13 Oakland 39

I was very surprised with the way TB played last week, at home, against a below average SD team. They were out gained 6.4yppl to 5.3yppl and allowed 8.8yps to only 6.2yps for themselves. Oakland showed up in great fashion at home against a poor defensive Houston team. They out gained Houston 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl, including passing for an unheard of 8.8yps against Houston and allowed a good throwing Texan passing attack to gain just 6.0yps. For the season Oakland averages just 5.1yps against 6.4yps and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 6.3yps against 6.7yps for a total of205.5yppl against 5.6yppl. TB averages just 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4ypp. They allow 5.9yps against 6.6yps and 5.1yppl against 5.6yppl. TB qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor performance last week, which is 83-39-4 and plays against them here. Numbers favor TB by only nine points and predict about 30 points. TB needs to win and hope for a Dallas loss to get in the playoffs. I will lean towards Oakland because of the strong situation and value in their favor. But I can’t make them a Best Bet because they have shown plenty of past history this year where they have been blown out on the road, with the latest example at SD who had lost three in a row just like TB has. TAMPA BAY 21 OAKLAND 9

GREEN BAY –9.5 Detroit 43

GB lost another close game last week at Chicago but dominated that game from the line of scrimmage. They out passed Chicago 6.7yps to 4.5yps and 4.8yppl to 3.8yppl. Detroit forgot to show up against New Orleans as NO never punted in the game and scored touchdowns on their first six possessions. They were out gained 6.0ypr to 4.8ypr, 8.8yps to 4.5yps and 7.6yppl to 4.6yppl. Packers average 6.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit averages just 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow a horrible 5.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 0A7.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit qualifies in the same winless situation they have qualified in most of this season. That situation is 76-30-6. Numbers favor GB by 14 points and predict about 53 points. Detroit hasn’t won in GB since 1991 and GB is 12-3-1 during that time. The Packers certainly don’t want to be the team that allows Detroit to win a game. And, after a 13-3 record last season, GB would like to finish this season with a big win. GB has lost a lot of games by a few points and they should be able to finish strongly this week. GREEN BAY 35 DETROIT 17

PHILADELPHIA –1.5 Dallas 42.5

The Eagles may blown their playoff chance last week with their loss at Washington. They didn’t do much to move the ball in that game but they out played Washington from the line of scrimmage. A fumble helped set up Washington with their only touchdown of the game. Philadelphia out gained Washington 4.3yppl to 3.7yppl, including holding Washington to just 3.5yps. Dallas lost at home to Baltimore and allowed the Ravens to rush for 265 yards at 7.4ypr although 150 of those yards basically came on two long rushes as Dallas was trying to stop Baltimore late in the game. If you take away those rushes, Baltimore would have averaged something closer to about 3.5ypr. These teams are about equal from the line of scrimmage. Philly qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 206-120-15. Numbers favor Philly by 4.5 points and predict about 49 points. Philly lost badly here last year to Dallas but they have had their way with the Cowboys in Philly, winning seven of the past nine games played here. Dallas has played three games on the road this year against playoff teams and lost all three of those games (one to the Giants without Romo). Philly has played four playoff teams at home this year and gone 3-1 SU against those teams. They are certainly capable of winning here. Ray Lewis said last week it was easy to prepare for the Dallas offense because they are very simple and that is why Philly prepares well for them. At home, with a lot of pressure on Tony Romo, Philly has a great chance to cover this game at such a short number. They need losses by Tampa Bay and either Chicago or Minnesota. They very well may know their fate by the time they start their game and it’s very likely they will not make the playoffs. No better way to face that reality than to ruin somebody else’s playoff hopes, which they can do to the Cowboys. PHILADELPHIA 30 DALLAS 21

MINNESOTA –6.5 NY Giants 42

The Vikings were beaten at home against Atlanta last week but they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. They out gained Atlanta 5.0yppl to 3.8yppl, including out passing them 5.0yps to 4.8yps and out rushing them 5.0ypr to 3.1ypr. It was four20Minnesota turnovers that did them in. The Giants came away with a miracle win and cover over Carolina. They out rushed Carolina 7.3ypr to 4.5ypr but only threw the ball for 5.3yps while allowing Carolina to pass for 9.7yps. Minnesota qualifies in some late season situations, which are 101-56-2 and 23-2-0. But, numbers favor the Giants by ½ point and predict about 47 points. Minnesota needs a win to make the playoffs (although they could make it with a Chicago loss), while the Giants have locked up the number one seed and have nothing to play for. Tom Coughlin played his starters in the last game of the season last year against NE but I think that was a different situation for this team. First, NE presented a good litmus test for where his team was and they needed to play better as they had been inconsistent leading up to that game. This year they have still been inconsistent as of late with injuries and suspensions but I think he feels better about his team this year. I can’t imagine the Giants playing their starters for long in this game but without knowing what the plan is it’s hard to make a call here. The value certainly is not in the Vikings favor although the situations definitely are. MINNESOTA 27 NY GIANTS 20

HOUSTON –3 Chicago 46.5

I guess I shouldn’t have been surprised with Houston laying an egg on the road last week laying seven points. With their defense one should never be surprised with an out right loss on the road. But, to have that come against a team like Oakland, who was minus most of their starting receivers was very surprising. Houston was out gained in the game 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl and out passed by a bad Oakland passing attack, 8.6yps to 6.0yps. Chicago got away with a victory over GB but they were dominated in that game, 4.8yppl to 3.8yppl and out passed 6.7yps to 4.5yps. The Bears offensive attack has been brutal this year, gaining just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.5yps against 6.2yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they have been just as good as they are bad on offense, allowing just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. Houston averages 7.1yps against 6.0yps and 6.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.0yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. The Bears qualify in a late season negative situation, which is 121-63-0 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Chicago by ½ point and predict about 47 points. Chicago needs a win and a Minnesota loss to make the playoffs. I like the way Houston is playing much more than the way Chicago is playing but Houston has faced two good defensive teams at home this year and scored just 13 points in each of those games. Meanwhile, Chicago has faced three bad defensive teams on the road this year and averaged 27 points per game, with at least 20 points in each of those games. Chicago has allowed 22 and 37 points on the road against the two good offensive teams they have played while Houston has allowed about 20 points per game at home to the below average offensive teams they have faced. That probably puts this game at about 24-21 in favor of Chicago. That makes it tough to lay points with Houston yet I don’t want any part of a Chicago team that can’t move the ball. HOUSTON 24 CHICAGO 23

Carolina –3 NEW ORLEANS 52.5

Carolina lost a game at NY last week they probably thought they had. It took a late Giants score plus a two point conversion and then a touchdown in OT to get the loss and, more importantly for me, the non-cover. Carolina was slightly out gained 6.5yppl to 6.4yppl but they allowed the Giants to rush for 301 yards at 7.3ypr and gained 4.5ypr themselves. They did out pass the Giants 9.7yps to 5.3yps. NO dominated Detroit from the start, scoring touchdowns on their first six possessions and never punting in the game. They out gained Detroit 6.0ypr to 4.8ypr, 8.8yps to 4.5yps and 7.6yppl to 4.6yppl. The Saints still can’t run the ball, averaging just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr but they have gotten better as of last with Pierre Thomas doing the running. They average 7.7yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Carolina has become very efficient on offense, gaining 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl overall. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Carolina by just one point and predict about 51 points. This should be a high scoring game but they have set the total too high for me to go over on. For years Carolina struggled here but they have now won the last six games played here. Historically they match up well but Carolina has now faced three teams that will probably make the playoffs and they are 0-3 SU against those teams. A fourth team, in SD, who will also probably make the playoffs, they won by just two points on the road back in the first game of the season (No Steve Smith in that game). Meanwhile, NO has gone 2-1 SU at home against playoff teams, with their only loss to Minnesota by three points, in a game they dominated but turnovers and blocked field goals sealed their fate in that game. Series history says Carolina, who with a loss, could fall from the #2 seed all the way down to the #4 seed but value and match up history from this year says NO. NEW ORLEANS 31 CAROLINA 28

ATLANTA –14 St. Louis 44

Atlanta escaped Minnesota with a win last week but they were dominated from the line of scrimmage. They were out gained by Minnesota 5.0ypr to 3.1ypr, 5.0yps to 4.8yps and=205.0yppl to 3.8yppl. It was four Minnesota turnovers and three additional fumbles by the Vikings that helped pave the way for Atlanta. Add to that the inability of Minnesota to recover an Atlanta fumble in the end zone as well. The Rams lost at home for the second straight game where they blew a large fourth quarter lead. Despite their lead they were out gained by SF 4.9ypr to 3.3ypr and 5.0yppl to 4.3yppl. Although a large part of those 49er yards came either on the running of quarterback Shaun Hill or some long pass plays late in the game. Other than that the Rams held SF pretty well in check for most of the day. The Rams qualify in a late season situation, which is 121-63-0 and plays against them here. But, Atlanta also qualifies in an extremely strong letdown situation, which is 103-35-3. Numbers favor Atlanta by 17 points and predict about 40 points. The Rams have allowed an average of 36 points on the road this year to the good offenses they have faced. Atlanta has averaged about 32 points per game at home against the poor defenses they have faced. That should put Atlanta at about 34 points for this game. The Rams have averaged about 13 points on the road against the poor defenses they have faced, of which Atlanta has. Meanwhile, Atlanta has allowed about 17 points per game at home to the poor offenses they have faced. That should put the Rams at about 13-17 points for this game. If I give them the benefit of the doubt and allow them 17 points that still favors Atlanta by 17 points. ATLANTA 34 ST LOUIS 17

CINCINNATI –3 Kansas City 38

KC lost at home last week to Miami but they out gained Miami 7.6yppl to 6.3yppl, including out rushing them 8.6ypr to 5.6ypr and out passing them 7.1yps to 6.9yps. Cincinnati shut out Cleveland 14-0 and out gained the hapless Browns 4.5yppl to 3.4yppl. Cincinnati threw the ball just nine times in the game and averaged 6.1yps in those throws. Cleveland averaged just 1.8yps for the game. This is simply a test of who wins when a bad offense faces a bad defense. Cincinnati averages just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr and 4.3yps against 5.7yps for a total of 3.9yppl against 4.9yppl. KC allows 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.6yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl. Cincinnati qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. They also qualify in a late season situation, which is 101-56-2. KC qualifies in negative late season situation, which is 121-63-0. Numbers, however, only favor Cincinnati by ½ point and predict about 42 points. Very hard for me to play either team in this game. CINCINNATI 24 KANSAS CITY 21

BALTIMORE –12.5 Jacksonville 35.5

Baltimore played a terrific game in Dallas last week and out gained the Cowboys 5.9yppl to 4.8yppl. They out rushed them 7.4ypr to 4.4ypr while getting out passed 5.0yps to 4.1yps. Those numbers are a little skewed seeing two long Baltimore rushes went for 159 yards and two touchdowns when Dallas stacked the line of scrimmage late in the game to try and stop Baltimore. When you remove those two runs Baltimore averaged just 3.1ypr and 3.6yppl. Dallas also gained some garbage yardage late in the game when Baltimore had their big lead. Jacksonville lost a heartbreaker to Indy, leading most of the game, but losing on an interception returned for a touchdown late in the game. It only got worse as they drove the field for an apparent game tying touchdown only to be sacked with no timeouts remaining as the came ended. They were badly out gained in the game, however, allowing 7.6yppl to just 5.8yppl and getting out passed 10.7yps to 6.9yps. They did out rush Indy 3.9ypr to 1.8ypr but everybody does that. If the Ravens win or NE losses (NE plays early – Balt. Late) the Ravens are in the playoffs. This line would seem to be a little high based on the need for the Ravens but I actually think it is just about right. Baltimore qualifies in a couple late season situations, which are 101-56-2 and 23-2-0. Jacksonville qualifies in a negative late season situation, which plays against them here and is 121-63-0. Numbers favor Baltimore by 11.5 points and predict about 43 points, which is why I say the number seems to be about right. Baltimore hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in a home game20this year. Jacksonville has played two good defensive teams on the road this year and scored 10 points in each game. You can probably mark them down for 10-13 points in this game. Jacksonville has allowed about 19 points per game on the road to below average offensive teams while Baltimore has averaged about 28 points per game at home against below average defensive teams. That means you can probably mark Baltimore down for about 24-28 points in this game. The line is a little too high for me to make this a Best Bet and if NE happens to lose the early game, Baltimore will be in the playoffs. BALTIMORE 27 JACKSONVILLE 10

Tennessee –3 INDIANAPOLIS 38

Neither team plans to play their starters much and this game is a meaningless game for both teams. Vince Young will get a good share of playing time for Tennessee and has plenty to prove. TENNESSEE 21 INDIANAPOLIS 17

PITTSBURGH –11 Cleveland 32
Pittsburgh has wrapped up the #2 seed and has nothing to play for in this game. The more important story might be Cleveland, who was shut out last week by Cincinnati and is now down to their fourth string quarterback this week. Cleveland has failed to score more than 10 points in any of their past five games. Pittsburgh has won seven of the past eight games played between these two here. Pittsburgh also has a strong history during the Roethlisberger era of winning and covering games at home when favored by five or more points. It’s doubtful Roethlisberger will play long in this game but Byron Leftwich is a very capable back up. Pittsburgh does qualify in a scheduling situation, which is 48-13-1. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 11 points and predict about 33 points. On the road this year Cleveland has scored 9, 10, 10 and 11 points against the better than average defensive teams they have faced. Hard to call here because of the lack of need for Pittsburgh but only one way to lean in my opinion. PITTSBURGH 23 CLEVELAND 10

NY JETS –2.5 Miami 42

The Jets were out played last week in Seattle, losing 13-3. They were out gained 4.8yppl to 4.4yppl and out passed 7.0yps to 4.3yps. They did out rush Seattle 4.6ypr to 3.3ypr. Miami won at KC but they were out gained badly in that game. KC out gained the Dolphins 7.6yppl to 6.3yppl, including out passing them 7.1yps to 6.9yps and out rushing them 8.6ypr to 5.6ypr. These teams are about even from the line of scrimmage. The Jets qualify in a late season situation, which is 23-2-0. They also qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 206-12-15, 144-72-10, 139-77-8, 452-308-27 and 677-534-42, including a subset, which is 535-404-30. Numbers favor the Jets by just one point and predict about 44 points. Plenty of strong situations in their favor in this game laying a short number at home. The Jets have won nine of the past ten games here against Miami. Many of those were three point wins but that would be good enough for a cover here. NY JETS 27 MIAMI 17

New England –6.5 BUFFALO 42

NE rolled again last week over Arizona 47-7. They out gained Arizona, in a snow storm, 6.3yppl to 3.7yppl, including out passing them 8.5yps to 4.1yps and 4.4ypr to 2.9ypr. Buffalo won at Denver last week but they were out gained 7.3yppl to 5.3yppl, including being out rushed 6.7ypr to 3.3ypr. Buffalo qualifies in a home dog momentum situation, which is 38-10-1. Numbers actually favor Buffalo by two points providing plenty of value with Buffalo. The line has been inflated because NE needs the win to make the playoffs. Projected points are 45. NE has a strong history here, winning seven of the past eight games with the last five wins by at least 14 points. NE has had its share of success on the road this year but Buffalo has lost just one home game by more than seven points this year and they figure to hang tough in this game based on my projected line and the situation in their favor. Simply too much value for a team that would love to make life miserable for the second straight week. BUFFALO 24 NEW ENGLAND 21

ARIZONA –6 Seattle 45.5

The Cardinals have been terrible as of late. They were blown out again last week in New England, 47-7. They were badly out gained 6.3yppl to 3.7yppl, including being out passed 8.5yps to 4.1yps and out rushed 4.4ypr to 2.9ypr. Seattle defeated the Jets at home 13-3 and out gained NY 4.8yppl to 4.4yppl. They out passed NY 7.0yps to 4.3yps but were out rushed 4.6ypr to 3.3ypr. Seattle’s defense has not been good this year and their whole starting offensive line from the start of the season is now injured. Arizona qualifies in a letdown situation based on their poor play from last week, which is 83-39-4. Arizona also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 116-50-8. They also qualify in a late season negative situation, which is 46-17-1. Numbers favor Arizona by five points. Arizona has only defeated Seattle by more than six points once in the past six seasons at that one win was only by eight points. Granted the two teams are drastically different than past seasons but the line, situations and past history are all in Seattle’s favor here. But, Arizona appears to be ready to play hard this week for a while to overcome their poor performances from the past few weeks. That combined with Seattle’s poor defense is enough to keep me from playing Seattle in this game. ARIZONA 28 SEATTLE 24

SAN FRANCISCO –3 Washington 37

The 49ers struggled for nearly 3 ½ quarters last week before finally waking up to defeat the Rams 17-16. They out gained the Rams 5.0yppl to 4.3yppl, including out rushing them 4.9ypr to 3.3ypr although the majority of=2
0those rushing yards came from Shaun Hill. Washington won at home against Philadelphia but they were out gained and the only touchdown they scored was set up on a fumble. Washington was out gained 4.3yppl to 3.7yppl, including being out passed 4.4yps to 3.5yps. San Francisco qualifies in a late season situation, which is 121-63-0. Numbers only favor SF by ½ point and predict about 33 points. Washington has really struggled on offense as of late. They have gone four games and six of seven games where they have scored 13 or less points. Since Mike Singletary took over SF has covered 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS. At home they have defeated the Rams by 19 points and the Jets by 10 points. No reason they can’t win and cover this game as well. Washington figures to be happy to have defeated a divisional rival last week against Philadelphia and with their season finished after this game, they are probably less than thrilled to travel cross country to play this game. For SF, they see a bright future ahead of them and would love to finish this season with another win, going 5-3 SU in their last eight games. SAN FRANCISCO 23 WASHINGTON 13

SAN DIEGO –8 Denver 50

Well, well, well. Ed Hochuli has to love this game after seeing SD win at TB last week and Buffalo knock off Denver, giving SD a chance to atone for his bad call in the second week of the season, which took away a win from SD. The Chargers played well last week at TB, out gaining TB 6.4yppl to 5.3yppl, including out passing them 8.8yps to 6.2yps. Denver lost at home but they out gained Buffalo 7.3yppl to 5.3yppl, including out rushing them 6.7ypr to 3.3ypr and out passing Buffalo 7.6yps to 7.2yps. It was two turnovers that helped Buffalo win that game. Both teams offenses are about equal but the SD defense is much better than Denver. Denver allows 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl, while SD allows 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. Numbers only favor SD by five points and predict about 52 points. SD qualifies in a negative 52-26-1 letdown situation after their upset win last week. That situation isn’t quite strong enough for me to make Denver a best bet but it’s enough, along with some line value, to get me leaning their way. SAN DIEGO 30 DENVER 23

3% PHILADELPHIA –1.5
3% NY JETS –2.5
3% BUFFALO +6.5
3% SAN FRANCISCO -3

AL DEMARCO

15 Dime - Cardinals
8-0-1 With 15 Dime Releases

If ever there was a team that needed to right its ship immediately with the playoffs just a week away, it's an Arizona squad that's lost four of five since punching its ticket to the postseason, including consecutive blowouts at the hands of Minnesota at home and New England in the snow on the road last Sunday. But coming to Glendale is just what the doctor ordered, a visit from a Seattle team that's coming off a huge upset of the Jets last weekend in coach Mike Holmgren's final home game.

Forget about this game being anti-climatic for the Seahawks following Holmgren's Seattle swan song. Where a fast-fading Brett Favre was unable to seriously challenge the NFL's worst pass defense last week in the snow, Kurt Warner, who is coming off a miserable 30-yard effort in the snow versus the Patriots, will come out firing against a porous secondary that's allowed 65% completions and 21 touchdown passes in 15 games versus just eight interceptions. And Warner will have the added luxury of playing inside a dome.

In the season's first meeting, in week 11, Warner had a magnificent game, completing 32-of-44 passes for 395 yards as Arizona carried a 26-7 lead into the fourth quarter before giving up a couple of garbage scores that allowed Seattle to make it a respectable - from a scoreboard perspective, at least - final of 26-20.

The Cardinals have failed to compete against top notch foes this season, getting crunched by the likes of the Patriots, Eagles, Jets and Giants. But against weaker competition, they've excelled, going 6-1 ATS versus clubs with a losing record such as Seattle. In any case the addition of S. Mingee back to the Cardinals secondary will provide a defensive edge. Mingee was injured during the Thanksgiving game against the Eagles.

There is no love lost between these two squads; Arizona felt the Seahwawks ran up the score in last December's 42-21 division-clincher in Seattle. The Cardinals relished the opportunity to earn a measure of revenge when they earned their first road win in the series in five years in the season's first meeting; another chance awaits them today with more at stake as it's imperative that their offense gets back on track prior to next weekend's playoff opener.

FYI - I've released this play early because so many other teams have their playoff fates ultimately in the hands of other clubs and I believe this game is underpriced and will become more attactive as the weekend progresses, meaning the public will jump on the Cardinals and push this price upward.

Speaking of the line.... As I post this play late Friday afternoon, Arizona is -6 to -6 1/2. If this line moves to -7, I would suggest you buy down the 1/2 point to 6 1/2 so you win if Arizona wins only by a touchdown.

If this line moves to -7 1/2 - even after shopping around - definitely buy down the 1/2 point to -7 so you get a push if Arizona only wins by a touchdown.

ASA

NFL

6*Houston
4*San Fransciso
3* Arizona

3* Louisina Tech

Alatex

Super Play Lou Tech

Kelso

100 Units Miami Dolphins +3

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