Larry Ness
25* Club Play (4-0 this season!)
Giants and Eagles are very familiar with each other. Since Coughlin has taken over in New York they've met 11 times, with the Giants owning a 6-5 edge. However, Philly has won THREE of the five meetings in the Meadowlands (including a 20-14 win TY in Week 14), as well as the lone postseason meeting during that span (23-20 at Philly in the '06 playoffs). The Eagles are clearly the team with the most momentum, as after benching McNabb during their embarrassing 36-7 loss at Baltimore in Week 12, the Eagles have gone 5-1 SU and ATS. McNabb, who wound up with a career-high 3,916 passing yards TY (60.4 percent / 23-11 ratio / 86.4 QB rating), threw nine TDs and just one INT in Philly's last five regular season games and then was 24-of-34 for 300 yards (2nd-ever 300-yard playoff game) with one TD and one INT vs the Vikings last week. The Giants got off to an 11-1 start (10-2 ATS) but then struggled down the stretch, losing THREE of their last four games. However, Eli had his best season as a pro, completing 60.3 percent (1st four years completed 54.5 with a 21-10 ratio). His QB rating was 86.4, after posting a 55.4 rating in his rookie season and ratings in the mid-70s over the last three years. Jacobs (1,089 YR / 5.0 YPC / 15 TDs), and Ward (1,025 YR / 5.6 YPC) gave the Giants a duo of 1,000 yard rushers (very rare), while Bradshaw (355 YR / 5.3 YPC) rounded out the league's top rushing attack (157.4 YPC / 5.0 YPC). There's little argument that the Giants will miss Burress but six players caught at least 33 passes TY and Smith (57), Toomer (48), Hixon (43) and even TE Boss (27 catches over his last 10 games with five of his six TDs) are all capable of "making plays." The Eagles did beat the Giants in the Meadowlands in Week 14, holding them to just 211 yards (lone offensive TD by NY came very late) but that was the first game after the "Burress distraction." The Giants are "long past" that now and after a week off, I expect them to be poised for an excellent effort. Philly's receivers are very mediocre and while Westbrook broke off a 71-yard TD catch last Sunday, he was held to just 38 yards rushing on 20 carries (1.9 YPC) vs the Vikings. The Giants may not be quite as good at stopping the run as Minnesota but they ain't bad, allowing 95.8 YPG. Let's also note that Westbrook is hardly 100% and in his final three regular season games, averaged just 49.3 YPG and 3.6 YPC. The Eagles were hardly dominant last week in Minnesota, despite Jackson (15-of-35) being terrible. There is no reason to think Manning won't play well after a solid regular season, following his "breakout performance" in LY's playoffs. The Eagles are on the road for the THIRD time in four weeks and face a Giants team which went 7-1 at home during the regular season. The Giants needed OT in two of those winss but won the other five by margins of nine, 38, 12, 21 and 20 points. Let's not forget this. The Giants won the Super Bowl last year after going 10-6 in the regular season. Despite the team's late slump, New York's 12-4 record was a two-game improvement over its regular season mark of a year ago. Just THREE times in the last 20 years have Super Bowls champs improved on their regular season record the following year and TWICE, those teams went on to win back-to-back Super Bowl titles. I'm not ready to predict a second straight Super Bowl win by the Giants but I am ready to predict a convincing win over the Eagles on Sunday, who were lucky to be playing the Vikings and Tarvaris Jackson last week.
25-Club play on the NY Giants
9* Division Round Total
The Steelers led the NFL in the following defensive categories, PPG (13.9), total YPG (237.2), passing YPG (156.9) and third down conversions (31 percent). Pittsburgh finished second in rushing yards (80.2 YPG / 3.3 YPC) and its pass D allowed just 12 TD passes with 20 INTs and 51 sacks (2nd-best). As for the Chargers, they became the first team to make the playoffs after a 4-8 start and then, after being 0-5 vs playoff-bound teams during the regular season, beat the Colts (who entered LW's game on a nine-game winning streak) 23-17 in 0T last Saturday. When these teams met at Pittsburgh in Week 11, the Steelers edged the Chargers 11-10, so based on the above, I guess this game is a 'dead under.' Not at all! First to that game in Week 11. The Steelers played a very sloppy game with 13 penalties for 115 yards. They were stopped on downs and settled for two FGs on three trips inside San Diego's red zone. Big Ben completed 31-of-41 passes in that game for 308 yards, one of just THREE games he topped 300 yards in a game this year. As for San Diego, the Chargers penetrated the Pittsburgh red zone three times as well, scoring one TD and a FG but also suffered an interception. Philip Rivers had his worst outing of the season that game (164 YP / zero TDs and two INTs / 44.4 QB rating) but let's review his full season. He finished the regular season with the league's best QB rating (105.5), the league's best YPA (8.92), the most passing TDs in the league (36) and ended with the fifth-most passing yards (4,009). With LT still less than 100%, I expect Rivers to be the focus of the offense (I don't expect Sproles to be the kind of factor he was against the Colts, do you?). Rivers has "spread the wealth around" this year, with six players catching 27 passes or more and three getting 50 or more. Getting back to Pittsburgh, Parker ran for 115 vs the Chargers in that first game and finished the regular season with 116 yards in Week 17 vs the Browns. This is the healthiest he's been all year and Big Ben should again have excellent success vs a San Diego pass D which allowed 67.9 percent completions this regular season, ranked 31st in yards passing (247.4 YPG) and allowed 25 TDs while intercepting only 15. The Chargers played seven road games this season plus a game in London with the Saints. Five of the eight games went 'over' and the avergae contest totaled a combined 48.1 PPG. Now to the Steelers and their history in Heinz Field. It opened in 2001 and even though the Steelers have always been known for their defense and running game, they are 40-23-1 to the over in their 64 regular season games (that's 62.5 percent). Since Big Ben arrived in 2004, the 'over' is 26-13-1 (66.7 percent). Now here's the 'clincher.' The Steelers have hosted six playoff games in Heinz Field with all SIX going 'over the total,' averaging 52.0 PPG.
9* Division Round Total on SD/Pit Over.
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinions
NY GIANTS (-4.0) 24 Philadelphia 14
The Eagles are every bit as good as the Giants, but New York has had an extra week off and that has proven to be a significant factor in the playoffs. The oddsmakers started to adjust for the fact that home teams in this round performed better than expected and the road teams have actually covered more often in recent years. However, that has not been the case for teams that qualify in the 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Philadelphia and New York split their two games this season, with the Eagles winning here in New Jersey in week 14, but teams with revenge are 15-0 ATS in that 36-6 ATS situation, so New York should be prepared to play well. Also, when division rivals meet in the playoffs the team that lost the most recent game is 23-8-1 ATS if the opponent has a win percentage of less than .700, which is the case here. These teams are even and my math model favors New York by 5 ½ points with the addition home field advantage for this round of the playoffs and the line has come down from -5 points to -4 points, so there is a little bit of line value on the side of New York in addition to the good situation. My only issue with this game is that the Eagles are 43-22-2 ATS as an underdog or pick under coach Andy Reid, including 5-1 ATS in the post-season. Philly is only 3-5 ATS as a dog or pick against a division rival with revenge, so that trend isn't enough to keep me away from favoring New York. It will, however, keep me from making the Giants at Best Bet at this price. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Giants in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.15 odds or better.
PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 24 San Diego 13
These teams played the only 11-10 game in NFL history in week 11 here in Pittsburgh, but that game should not have been that close. Pittsburgh dominated with 410 total yards at 5.7 yards per play to 213 yards at 4.3 yppl and I think they can do it again. The Steelers defense is the single most dominating unit in this game, allowing just 3.9 yppl for the season against a schedule of teams that would combine to averaged 5.3 yppl against an average defense. San Diego's offense was 0.6 yppl better than average for the season and I rate them at 1.1 yppl better than average with Darren Sproles at running back in place of the injured and washed up LaDainian Tomlinson. As good as the San Diego offense is with Sproles getting more touches, the Steelers' defense allowed more 4.8 yppl or more just one time all season (5.3 yppl at Tennessee) and should contain that attack. Pittsburgh isn't much offensively, averaging 5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack and the Chargers are average defensively, but my math model favors Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for siding with the Steelers is a 36-6 ATS playoff situation that applies to the Steelers in this game and a negative 4-21-1 ATS negative situation that applies to San Diego. The Chargers were able to win as a home underdog last week, but teams that win as a playoff home underdog are just 1-8 ATS on the road in their next playoff game. The reason I'm passing on this game as a Best Bet is because the Chargers are 19-3-2 ATS as an underdog the last 5 seasons, including 3-0 ATS this season. My research shows that teams trends are not nearly as predictive as general situations, so the technical analysis still favors the Steelers and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 ½ or less.
Allen Eastman
$500.00 First Half: Take San Diego (+3.5) over Pittsburgh
San Diego is on a roll and we’re going to continue to bet on the hot team. Pittsburgh is going to try to come out and establish a physical tone with its defense, but they have had a tough time putting points on the board against equally strong defenses. I think that San Diego will throw caution to the wind and play with nothing to lose, just as it has over the last four weeks. They are lose and they are ready and I think that they jump out to an early lead on the heavily favored Steelers, who were more of a fourth quarter team this season.
$400.00 ‘Over’ 38.0 San Diego at Pittsburgh
Just like with the Ravens and Titans we’re going to go against the general thinking on this one. Everyone expect the Steelers defense to dominate, as it was the No. 1 unit in the league this year. But considering that the Chargers have already faced this team once this season I think they’ll be able to find some ways to exploit it. LT is out, but Darren Sproles is quite a game breaker and I think he will be able to bust one open. The ‘over’ is 16-6-2 in San Diego’s last 24 road games and the ‘over’ is 44-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 65 home games. Those two trends are too strong to ignore.
Kevin Kavitch
I'm backing Philly. They've been in must win games for almost 2 months now and are playing their best football of the season. They've gotten healthier and will have confidence as a result of their win in NY back in early December. They dominated that game and getting more than a FG here is a big advantage. Two big things I like is Philly's recent success stopping the run and the fact they'll be the hungrier team. The Giants won it all last year while then Eagles have gotten a sniff in recent years but couldn't finish the job. It's hard to have a motivational edge at this time of year but I see the Eagles being hungrier and digging deeper. I smell a potential upset and I'll grab the points. Take Philadelphia +4 for a 4* Regular Play.
PICKENS
50 UNIT- NFC DIVISIONAL GAME EAGLES @ GIANTS
The Philadelphia Eagles are my choice in this matchup. Without the presence of Burress the Giants have quickly become a one trick pony. You know what is coming, but can you stop it? With Jim Johnson on the other side of the field, and an Eagles defense that looks as good as any in the McNabb era, I think Philadelphia matches up very well against the Gmen. Little has changed since the last meeting between these 2 teams....a meeting where the Eagles flat out DOMINATED the game from beginning to end. If anything the only thing that has changed is a healthy Brandon Jacobs (which is big) but the Eagles also have a massive amount of momentum. Come the end of this game I expect the Eagles defense to force many 3 and outs with 8 men in the box and let the best secondary in the NFL shut down Eli's passing game to his now very average WR corp minus Burress. The Eagles did a great job against AP last week against the Vikings and no matter what anyone says- AP is better than all 3 of the Giants backs any day of the week. I would prefer to matchup against 3 larger slower backs than 1 AP any day of the week. The Giants on the other hand have no momentum coming into this game. They were not playing good football since the Plaxico mess. This is NOT the same Giants team that won the Super Bowl last year. They've lost Manning's #1 safety valve in Burress, they lost the NFC's best DE early in the year, and now their others are still banged up. Philadelphia wins this game straight up and McNabb and Reid visit their record 5th NFC conference game.
PLAY ON PHILADELPHIA +4
50 unit- AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND REVENGE GAME CHARGERS @ STEELERS
Our selection is on the San Diego Chargers over the Steelers. I am the biggest believer in momentum...I thought it coming into this playoff season- the winner of the Colts / Chargers game is going to the Super Bowl. Yes I know, the Chargers have 8 losses...but they've also gotten the short end of the stick in a few games and could have EASILY been a 12 win team. I know close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades, but trust me the Steelers want nothing to do with this Charger team. I expect San Diego to give Pittsburgh all they can handle- even without LT in the lineup. Rivers is playing fantastic right now, and I would take him any day of the week over Big Ben. The Steelers defense is everything impressive, but their offense will let them down in this game and it may not be enough for the win. Pittsburgh has found a way to win all year long in close games, but I'm afraid this time around the line does not come into play yet again.
PLAY ON SAN DIEGO +6
NFL PLAYOFF TOTALS OF THE WEEK
200 unit- Steelers / Chargers UNDER
100 unit- Giants / Eagles UNDER
JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY RELEASE
PITTSBURGH -5.5 -125
ASA
3* Eagles / Giants Under 40
Ron Raymond
Philadelphia Eagles +4
Nelly
2* San Diego Chargers + over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers caught some breaks last week but delivered the victory to move on despite long odds of even making the playoffs a few weeks ago. The Chargers have now won five straight games and even with LT possibly on the shelf the offense behind efficient QB Rivers is capable of finding ways to win. Pittsburgh’s defense gets far more acclaim but San Diego’s defense allowed just 18 points per game since returning from London mid-season. Pittsburgh allowed just 14 points per game on the year but against teams that made the playoffs Pittsburgh allowed nearly 19 points per game. In recent years the Chargers have been a great road team and underdog and despite the long travel and cold weather the Chargers are capable of keeping this game close, as they did when these teams met in the regular season. Aside from the great Super Bowl run, the Steelers have not had great recent playoff results and recall that run came mainly as a road underdog. The Steelers went 0-4 ATS this season at home against playoff teams and the week 17 concussion to QB Roethlisberger and nagging hip issues of LB Harrison can not be positives. San Diego did not deserve to make the playoffs but they have a team that belongs. The Chargers lost several close games this year, including six losses by six points or less and no losses by more than nine points so expecting a Pittsburgh blowout would be a mistake.
1* San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers 'UNDER'
These teams have met three of the past four years with all three meetings playing 'under' the total. In the regular season these teams played an exciting game that finished officially 11-10, although it should have finished 18-10, and was an 8-7 game heading into the fourth quarter. Eight of the last 13 San Diego games have played 'under' the total and the Charger point production is a bit overvalued based on a few late season high scores. The San Diego defense has now allowed more than 24 points in any of the last nine games. Three of the last four home games for the Steelers have played 'under', and in six of the final seven games Pittsburgh held opponents to ten points or fewer.
THE BOOOJ
25 unit Eagles +4
15 unit Pittsburgh -6
5 unit Pittsburgh Under 38
5 unit parlay Pitt & Under
Brandon Lang
25 Dime Philadelphia Eagles
10 Dime San Diego Chargers
John Fina
Steelers GOY
Lenny Stevens
20* Eagles
10* San Diego
John Ryan
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Over 38
Ai Simulator 15* graded play OVER San Diego/Pittsburgh scheduled to start on Sunday at 4:30 EST. Also, a 5* play on San Diego. Also an optional play to parlay SD with the money line and the OVER. AiS shows an 87% probability that 40 or more points will be scored in this game. Granted the following angles are self fulfilling prophesies to a degree, but not all of the games played were lined above 40 points either. With the line UNDER 40 the following projection takes on significant meaning. AiS shows an 84% probability that both teams will score 20 or more points. San Diego is 7-1 OVER this season, 17-3 OVER the past 3 seasons and 81-8 OVER since 1992 in a game where they and their opponent score 20 or more points. Steelers are 3-0 this season, 14-0 the last 3 seasons and 80-3 OVER since 1992 when they and their opponents score 20 or more points. SD is in a solid OVER role as well noting they are 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Pittsburgh is 14-5 OVER (+8.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Needless to say Sproles will be the key offensive player the Steelers will want to focus on. The Steelers rank first in run defense, 1st in kick coverage and 4th in punt coverage. Yet, they have not had to face nor the time to prepare for a player as unique as Sproles. Rivers has developed into a complete QB and the most impressive part of his game is his pocket presence and that will certainly be a positive factor in keeping drives consistent and not predictable. SD does not have to run the ball extremely well to win this game. All that is needed is for Pittsburgh to respect the run (sproles). Note that Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt and SD is 6-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons in that role.
Erin Rynning
20* Pittsburgh