Al Demarco
10 Dimes Steelers
Steve Budin
25 Dimes Steelers
SIXTH SENSE
NY GIANTS –4 Philadelphia 39
Another line that is very interesting considering their first meeting at this site. In that game the Giants were seven point favorites although they lost the game 20-14. They were out gained in that game 4.6yppl to 4.1yppl. Philly was coming off their dominating Thursday night win over Arizona so they had 10 days to prepare for this game. It was also the second game the Giants were without Plaxico Burress (from a suspension) although they were also without Burress two games before that in Arizona as well.
Philly controlled their game last week at Minnesota as they out gained the Vikings 5.8yppl to 4.3yppl. But, if you remove a 71 yard screen pass to Westbrook that went for a touchdown, they only averaged 4.7yppl. Westbrook is certainly good enough to do that again but I have to believe the Giants go into this game looking to take away Westbrook as much as they can because the rest of the team probably can’t beat the Giants. They were out rushed in the game against Minnesota, 148 yards to 67 yards and 4.4ypr to 2.9ypr. It was a completely ineffective Minnesota passing game that kept the Vikings from winning. Philly averages 6.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. The Giants average 5.0ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.0yppl. Those numbers also include Burress games but the Giants offense is better than the Philly offense. On defense, Philly allows 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. The Giants allow 5.7yps against 5.9yps and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. The Philly defense is better than the Giants defense. The Giants qualify in playoff situations, which are 40-8-0 and 43-12-3. Philly qualifies in negative situations, which are 41-15-4 and 60-22-4. Numbers favor the Giants by four points and predict about 49 points. When I run a profile match up of each opponent, I get the Giants by a final score of 26-24 before accounting for the positive situations they are in. I would consider the over in this game but it appears there will be high winds on Sunday. Philly is a very good team but the Giants are in some very strong situations and the line is fair in this game and that’s enough for me to make the Giants a Best Bet. NY GIANTS 30 PHILADELPHIA 17
PITTSBURGH –6 San Diego 38
This is the most normal line of the four weekend games when compared to their first match-up. The Steelers were five point favorites in that game they won 11-10. The Steelers dominated that game from the line of scrimmage, out gaining SD 5.6yppl to 4.3yppl, including out rushing them 4.4ypr to 3.0ypr and out passing them 6.4yps to 5.2yps. Pittsburgh won that game by just one point but they were stopped on fourth and goal from inside the SD one yard line. They eventually got a safety so if they could have scored a touchdown on that drive they would have won the game 16-10, assuming everything else played out the same, which we know it wouldn’t. SD also got their lone touchdown after a 19 yard pass interference penalty put them at the Pittsburgh three yard line. Had that not happened and they settled for a field goal the final difference could have been even larger. The point here being Pittsburgh dominated that game and had a few opportunities that went against them that kept this score from being much higher.
SD was out gained last week 5.6yppl to 4.9yppl but if you take away the 72 yard touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne that caught the Chargers by surprise, Indy would have averaged just 4.6yppl. SD averages just 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr but 7.7yps against 6.2yps for a total of 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh averages just 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. The SD offense is definitely better than Pittsburgh. On defense, SD allows 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. Pittsburgh allows just 3.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.3yps against 5.9yps and 3.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Pittsburgh clearly has a much better defense than SD, although the SD defense has improved as of late. Pittsburgh qualifies in a playoff situation, which is 40-8-0. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 3.5 points before accounting for the situation and predict about 43 points. When I do a profile match-up of each teams opponent, I get a final predicted score of 18-18. SD is 0.8yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage, while Pittsburgh is 1.0yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage. And, we know SD is playing better as of late. Add to that Pittsburgh has played seven games against playoff teams this year and failed to win any of those game by more than four points. SD has lost just two games by more than six points. All of that makes it tough for me to make Pittsburgh a best bet in this game. I will just lean their way based on the situation in their favor. PITTSBURGH 26 SAN DIEGO 17
3% NY GIANTS -4
Opposite Action Plays
NY Giants
Mike Lineback
Philadelphia Eagles
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Pittsburgh Steelers
AntonWins
3 units Philadelphia +4
igz1 sports
NHL
3* St Louis vs Edmonton Over 5.5
NBA
3* Boston -4.5
3* Dallas -4
NFL
5* San Diego +6.5
4* Philadelphia +4
CBB
4* Iowa +7.5
3* Penn State +7
3* Siena -6
LPW Sports Forecast
50 Unit Confidential Access: Pittsburgh
Kelso
5 units Minnesota -6.5
3 units Rider -5.5
3 units Spurs -3
10 units Eagles
5 units Chargers
3 units UNDER on both games
Seabass
300* Steelers
30* Philly
Xavier - 20*
LSU - 20*
Atl - 20*
Phoenix - 30*
San Antonio - 50*
Chris Rizzo
NY GIANTS -4
PITTSBURGH -6
Wunderdog
4 units Eagles
Jim Feist
5* Pitt