Executive
600 Steelers
300 Eagles
Oscarxena Sports
Arizona +4 -1.15 (5 Unit Play)
Arizona +1.72 Money Line (2.5 Unit Play)
Arizona +3 -1.24 1st Half (3 Unit Play)
Philadelphia/Arizona Over 47 +1.02 (4 Unit Play)
I am not a proponent of laying big money on games as you all know and it is rare for me to release 5* plays but I have to tell you that this will be my largest play today in some time. Win or lose, I have to go with what I feel is right and I firmly believe that the Cardinals are the play here in this game. Just to put this into some perspective and just how linesmakers come up with the numbers they use, let's travel back to Thanksgiving when the Eagles were slumping back home after a beating they suffered to Baltimore the Sunday before. People were talking about how McNabb was done and that Kolb would start and everyone was on the Cardinal side for that game and what happened, the Eagles trounced the Cardinals as only 3 point favorites. Now today's story is not the exact same but everyone is high now on the Eagles and McNabb and while no one is discounting what the Cardinals have done to get here the credit is firmly placed higher on the Eagles than the Cardinals, and guess what, the Eagles are now on the road laying 4 points. Huh, they were only three at home in a cold weather game! I looked back at the Eagles opponents since the Arizona game and they played the NY Giants twice, Washington, Dallas, Minnesota & Cleveland. The things about those teams taking nothing away from them as beside Cleveland the talent level was there but in my mind they were all fundamentally flawed at offense. The NY Giants were never the same after they lost Burress, Dallas was a mess, Washington (enough said), Cleveland (what offense) and Minnesota had Tavaris Jackson at QB. The Eagles will be facing a team today that is clicking on all cylinders right now and have already beaten two teams from the NFC South to earn this game today and the NFC South could have been the best conference in the NFC this year. Again, I am not taking anything away from the Eagles but we must remember this point. The Cardinals have been reenergized with the emergence of James at RB and they are likely to have Boldin back at WR for this game which is huge in my opinion. I think the key to this game will be not how effective James is but that the Cardinals stay with the ground game some so that the Eagles can't unleash their vaunted blitz attack because Warner is prone to fumble the ball. The Cardinals have to remember that they are home and keep the home crowd which should be frenzied in it. Speaking of the home fans, they had 20,000 tickets available for this game and sold them out in 6 minutes at nearly $400-$500 a pop so the fans will be in this. This is Philly's fourth away game in five weeks and they come in with Westbrook banged up again although he will play. On the defensive side of the ball Arizona needs to continue to try and capitalize on mistakes but Philly really does not have that home run WR like Carolina did last week. Neither team allows a lot of sacks so pressure on the QB will more than likely decide this one as well as turnovers and special teams. The line value is clearly on the Cardinals side and while this may be an unpopular pick I will have large wagers on the Cardinals here and I think this game will go Over the total as well.
Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under 34 -1.05 (4 Unit Play)
Baltimore/Pittsburgh Under 17 1st Half -1.08 (3 Unit Play)
I am completely baffled on the side in this game and I am not even going to attempt to pick one as I could make cases for both squads here but I am going to make a play on the Under here. My concern with the Under was the Steelers impressive showing last week and the key injuries to both teams defensive units as Baltimore will be without CB Rolle here and it would me a miracle if Suggs plays and even if he does he will be far less than 100% so he may be doing a disservice to the Ravens if he does. The Steelers meanwhile have Polamalu hurting although he is likely to play as well. With all that said, I have to look at what these teams did overall all season and that points me to a play on the Under here. The first issue is obviously the field conditions which we all know are not the greatest in Pittsburgh. Although I think these two teams must take more chances, especially Baltimore if they expect to win I still think they will play this game close to the vest and try to extend the wills of their defenses to try and get an advantage in the game. Pittsburgh looked extremely good last week running the ball with Willie Parker and using ball control offense but that was against the Chargers and I am not sure that recipe will work today against Baltimore. I think they will have to throw the ball more today and that means that Big Ben will be getting hit like he did all season. Am I afraid of them throwing the ball more, well of course because Roethlisberger is very capable of connecting on some long throws but I still believe in the Baltimore defense as well. I mentioned last week that the Steelers offensive line is very good at run blocking but not so good at pass blocking in my opinion and that could be a key in this game. If the Ravens are unable to get to Big Ben they will be done but the Steelers big guys have to show me they can. On to Baltimore and what they must do and I think that is they must take the training pants off Flacco and allow him to throw a little bit downfield as well. If they play conservative and not to lose they will lose. So why am I so high on the Under than if this is my feelings for both offenses, it is simply because these defenses are better than the offenses. They are not #1 and #2 in the league because they got lucky, they are ranked that because they are good. Allowing yards downfield is fine, my wager will be determined by points scored and quite frankly I don't see these teams reaching 34 so the Under is my bet. Whenever you make a play on a low total like this you are depending on clock churning drives that result in FG's rather than TD's and you are hoping that no defensive scores occur. If that happens you will more than likely win and that is what I feel will happen here. For those looking for a side play I always take the points when I am undecided and I would make Baltimore a 1* play +6 but will not count it towards my record win or lose.
Dr. Canada
Flames/Avalanche Over 5.5
Oilers -140
The Pres
Arizona
AntonWins
Philadelphia on the ML -170 for 3 units
Philadelphia -3.5 for 2 units.
Teddy Covers
20* Arizona
10* Pittsburgh
The Booooj
20 units on Philadelphia -3.5
20 units on Under 47 in Philadelphia/Arizona
10 unit parlay of Philadelphia -4 and Under 47
25 units on Baltimore +6
DR BOB
Opinions
Philadelphia (-4.0) 23 ARIZONA 19
The side on this game is tough to pick, but the under looks like a decent play. Arizona’s strength is an offense that has averaged 5.9 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and that unit rates at 0.7 yppl better than average in the 13 games that WR Anquan Boldin has played. Boldin has missed 5 games this season, including last week’s win at Carolina, but he’s been upgraded to probable for this game, which makes the Cardinals’ pass attack tough to defend. Kurt Warner averaged 7.4 yards per pass play when both of his All-Pro receivers (Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald) were playing (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback), but I rate Philadelphia’s defense at 1.4 yppp better than average defending the pass and project a modest 6.0 yppp for the Cardinals in this game, which is what they averaged in their 20-48 loss at Philly in week 13. Arizona, averaging a porous 3.7 ypr for the season, isn’t going to have any success running against an Eagles’ defensive front that has yielded just 3.7 ypr this season to teams that would combine to average 4.6 ypr against an average defensive team. The Cardinals ran just 10 times for 25 yards in their first meeting with the Eagles and gained just 260 total yards at a mediocre 5.3 yards per play. While Arizona’s offense is a very good 0.7 yppl better than average, the Eagles’ defense is 1.1 yppl better than average and has been even better over the second half of the season. My math model projects just 5.0 yppl for the Cardinals in this game, but Arizona’s underrated defense should keep them close.Arizona has allowed a mediocre 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but Arizona is good defending the run (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and their pass defense is 0.2 yards per pass play better than average if you exclude the 2 games (week 4 and 5) when both top pass rusher Bertrand Berry and star safety Adrian Wilson were both out. Arizona is actually 0.3 yppl better than average defensively while Philadelphia’s offense is only 0.2 yppl better than average with Donovan McNabb at quarterback (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack). Don’t be fooled by the 48 points that Philadelphia scored against the Cardinals at home in week 13, as they averaged a modest 5.7 yppl in that game (compared to Arizona’s 5.3 yppl).
I have two math models and one favors the Eagles by 2½ points while the other favors Philly by 5 points, so a line of Philadelphia by 4 points is about right and I can certainly see this game going either way as far as the side is concerned. Arizona certainly played better at home this season, going 6-3 ATS on this field, but Philadelphia has been a very good road team under coach Andy Reid, posting a very profitable 56-31 ATS record away from home – including 6-1 ATS in the post-season. Home underdogs or picks have been a solid 19-9 ATS in the playoffs since 1980, but only 4-5 ATS in the conference championship games (1-5 ATS since 1988). I have no opinion on the side in this game.
This game should be a lot less scoring than the first meeting between these teams, as both defenses have an advantage over their opponent’s offense and both math models project a lower scoring game than expected. One model predicts 41 points and the other predicts 42 ½ total points and I’ll call for 42 total points scored. I’ll lean with Under (currently 47 points) and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 48 points or higher.
PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 20 Baltimore 13
Pittsburgh beat Baltimore by 3 points at home in overtime in week 4 and by 4 points at Baltimore in week 15 and it looks like the Steelers will make it a 3 game sweep on their way to the Super Bowl. I would have called for a closer game if the Ravens’ defense was fully healthy, but CB Samari Rolle has been downgraded to doubtful with a groin injury and top pass rusher Terrell Suggs is questionable with a shoulder injury, although I suspect he’ll try to play. Rolle is much more important to the Ravens’ defense than he’s given credit for, as Baltimore was great defending the pass in the 11 ¾ games he played and worse than average against the pass in the 6 ¼ games that he missed this season. For the season the Ravens have allowed 5.2 yards per pass play against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defense. However, Baltimore was even better in the 11 ¾ games in which Rolle played, allowing just 4.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Rolle missed weeks 4 through 9 this season and also missed that last quarter or so of last week’s win at Tennessee and Baltimore allowed 6.4 yppp in those 6 ¼ games to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp. That’s not a fluke either, as the Ravens were also much better against the pass last season in 6 games with Rolle in the lineup, allowing just 5.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average team, compared to 7.5 yppp allowed in 10 games without Rolle (versus quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp). The Ravens are still very good defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed), but Ben Roethlisberger should be able to find some open receivers without Rolle manning one of the corners. I rate the Steelers’ offense at 0.2 yppl worse than average and Baltimore’s defense was just 0.2 yppl better than average without Rolle, so Pittsburgh is only at a 0.4 yppl disadvantage when they have the ball.
Baltimore’s offense, which also 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), is at a 1.6 yppl disadvantage against a dominting Steelers’ stop unit that has yielded just 4.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. That unit held
Baltimore to just 3.5 yppl in two games this season and my math model projects just 3.8 yppl for the Ravens in this game. The Ravens do have a slight advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams, but my math model favors the Steelers by 7 ½ points with Rolle out and I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at -6 ½ points or less and I have no opinion on the Over/Under.
KBHOOPS
NFL
5* Philadelphia Eagles -3.5
5* Pittsburgh Steelers -6
NBA
10* NBA GOM Oklahoma City PK **POD**
Underdog
Arizona
PHYSIC SPORTS
2 Units- over 47 Philly/Az
2 units- over 34 Pitt/Balt
4 Units (major)- Pitt -5.5
5 Units (Wiseguy)- AZ +3.5
Gilberg Dataman
20* top play on Arz/Philly Over 48
10* regular play on Arz+4
10* regular play on Balt+6
Tom Stryker
5* Pitt/Balt Over
3* Pitt -6
Indiancowboy
4 Unit Play (CBB: POD) #824. Take Southern Illinois -4.5 over Bradley
For our POD today let's hit up the Missouri Valley Conference and take Southern Illinois. For starters S. Illinois has revenge against Bradley from an earlier season loss on the road 63-79. From that 16 point loss, Southern Illinois has then gone on to beat Wichita State on the road and Evansville at home. In many ways, that was a wake up call for this team as they nearly defeated Creighton on the road who is a top 90 team on the road in overtime. Now, they come back home to face a Bradley team that is very good but who has yet to face a top 125 team on the road and of course, Southern Illinois has revenge here. The public is split on this game. This game could go many ways, but for me, I will take the Southern Illinois team coming off the road conference loss in OT as they return home to play Bradley on a Sunday night game to a sold out Saluki crowd. I was very close to taking SE Missouri State on the road at Illinois State but laid off simply b/c I will take the home team here in relatively small chalk, with revenge, to a sold out crowd in a night game in the MVC. Southern Illinois is showing improvement and they have some strong basics. After all, this team is 4th in the nation in 3 point shooting at 41.5% and 45th in the nation at 73.3% in free throw shooting percentage. Make no mistake about it that the Bradley Braves are good. But, having said that, I am not sure how competent this team will be in facing a staunch Saluki defense on the road as they shoot just 31.8% from 3 point land. I think when all is said and done, you are likely to see a Saluki cover as they start off this game strong and hang in there. The home team is 7-2ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams and the Braves are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Southern Illinois.
4 Unit Play. Take Over 195 between the Miami Heat @ OKC Thunder
There is no reason why this game shouldn't go over today. After all, you have a team in OKC that is playing great at home and who has covered their last 9 of 10 games. Combine that with the fact the Heat played terrible at Miami and look to bounce-back here. Beasley and Cook had horrible games and I do not expect them to shoot that horribly nor do I expect the Thunder's defense to be anywhere as good as the Rockets defense. Keep in mind that I think the Thunder win this game outright. Consequently, I will take the over in what I believe will lead us to the "active dog" = over theory. Why? Well, I suspect the Thunder to be very game for this contest considering they nearly defeated the Heat the first time around back on December 6th. That was the game in a series of many that the Thunder started covering. After all, why would you not think the Thunder can't get revenge in this game? This team is playing dynamic basketball, comes off the heels of getting revenge against the Pistons, defeating Utah at home, defeating the Bulls in OT on the road and losing to the Nets barely in OT. Furthermore, this team has not played back to back Unders in over 2 weeks and they come off an under contest with the Pistons. Tack on the fact that the Heat have played 5 of 6 overs on their west coast road trip with the exception being their last game vs. the Rockets, you have yourself a sound over on hand. In short, if we get this over to cash today, we have indeed won 4 straight weeks in the NBA and we tack that on with a strong effort in college ball. Let's rock and roll as we have a team that is favored by 70% of the public here in the Heat that is in for a dog fight in OKC with the Thunder having revenge and the Heat come off a terrible scoring effort of their own. Look for both teams to surpass 100 a piece today. The over is 4-0 when the Thunder face winning teams at home meaning they are game against sound teams at home as they show up against them and the over is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups between these 2 teams.
Randy Radke
Steelers