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(@jasper)
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Sports Wise Guys

5 Star Picks (Week 9):

Houston +4.5 over Minnesota
Green Bay +5 over Tennessee
Philadelphia -6.5 over Seattle
Buffalo/NY Jets over 42
Chicago/Detroit over 43.5

5-Star NFL Picks Season Total: 21-18-1 (53.8%)

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:10 pm
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Allen Eastman

$3000.00 -101 New England (+6) over Indianapolis (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
By all statistics that I use to handicap games, the Patriots have a clear edge. And when I made my own lines for this one I actually had the Patriots as healthy favorites. The Colts are not that team that they have been over the last five years. They are coming off a crushing loss on Monday Night Football in a game in which they played about as well as they could and still lost by 17 points. With the exception of the Baltimore win, the Colts have really been lucky to score any victories. They were trailing against Minnesota and Houston and had to use last comebacks to eke out those victories. Matt Cassel has looked much more comfortable recently in the Pats’ system and I think he is good enough to lead the Patriots to a win here. The Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Indy and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games. The underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two rivals.

$2000.00 +112 Miami (+3) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
The Dolphins are coming off a nice win at home against Buffalo and I think that they are going to beat a Denver team that is not nearly as good as people thought earlier in the year. The line on this game has sunk like a stone, dropping from an open of -6 to -3. I think that tells us where the sharp early money is. The Dolphins will be able to move the ball against a weak Denver defense, and should be able to either win or cover against a team that has lost six straight ATS.

$500.00 -110 ‘Under’ 40 Jacksonville at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
The Jaguars have played under the total in five of their last eight games and the Bengals have failed to top the total in seven of their last 10 games. The Bengals have scored over two touchdowns in just two of their games this year as their offense continues to be one of the worst in the league. Jacksonville isn’t explosive offensively either, and I think we’ll see a lackluster effort from both teams.

$800.00 -107 "Over" 41 New York Giants at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 1)
The Giants are going to show no mercy against the rival Cowboys this weekend. Dallas is again without Tony Romo, and the last time they were on the road without him they were routed by weak St. Louis. Now Dallas is even talking about going to third-string quarterback Brooks Bollinger. With a bye week coming up, and knowing that they are going to get Romo back during that time I can see Dallas giving its top effort. The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS on the road and 0-6 ATS in divisional games. The Giants are 7-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and are 10-4-1 ATS in divisional games. Giants will score 31 of the points by themself.

3 TEAM TEASER

NE +16
NYG OVER 31
JAX UNDER 50.....................$480 TO WIN $400

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:11 pm
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RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL O/U GAME OF THE WEEK!
Pick # 1 Philadelphia Eagles / Seattle Seahawks Under 42.5

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:11 pm
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BIG AL

3* Green Bay Packers+5
3* Oakland Raiders+3
3* St. Louis/Arizona 'under' 48
3* Indianapolis Colts-5
1* Cincinnati Bengals+8
1* Minnesota Vikings-4

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:12 pm
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Dominic Brando Sports Sunday/Monday NFL Week Nine High Volume Report:

NFL 150 Unit Executive Max Out (Dominic Brando's NFL Underdog Shocker Game of the Year):
150 Units #413 GREEN BAY PACKERS +5/-120 over Tennessee Titans (1:05 PM ET)

NFL 150 Unit Executive Max Out (Dominic Brando's Monday Night Inter-Conference Game of the Year)
150 Units #428 WASHINGTON REDSKINS MONEY LINE -125 OR -1/-130 over Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL 150 Unit Executive Max Out (Dominic Brando's NFL October Game of the Month):
150 Units #400 MINNESOTA VIKINGS -4/-115 over Houston Texans (1:05 PM ET)

NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #409 ARIZONA CARDINALS -2/-125 over St Louis Rams
NFL Top 100 Unit Golden Star Lock: #411 DETROIT LIONS +14/-130 over Chicago Bears

Sunday NFL Week Nine Money Line Isolations:

NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #413 GREEN BAY PACKERS +180 over Tennessee
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #400 MINNESOTA VIKINGS -200 over Houston
NFL Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #428 WASHINGTON REDSKINS -125 over Pittsburgh

Dominic Brando Sports

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:15 pm
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Chip Chirimbes

Private Players Club Goy- Seahawks

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:15 pm
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Sunday: INDIAN COWBOY

(POD). Take Over 42.5 between the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:15pm Eastern). If you didn't notice, the Seahawks might be making a run at it with an impressive win over division foe in the 49ers. Not only did the Seahawks win in San Fran but won convincingly as they put up over 30+ points in the Bay area. Something that has gone under the radar is the fact that the Eagles have played overs when on the road facing competitive teams. Make no mistake about it, that Vegas knows what's up with more than 72% of the public riding the road favorite here in the Eagles which is a likely indicator that the Seahawks will be an active dog. In short, the Seahawks will be very competitive this game. They will push the Eagles to the limit. Consequently, the total will go over as this is likely the case when the public is all over a road favorite heavily and likely gets burned. I look for the Seahawks to cover, but more importantly, I look for this game to go over.

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:16 pm
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Malinsky

4* Philly -6.5

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:17 pm
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Joyce Sterling‏

Sunday NFL 11/2

New York Giants -9.5

10 STAR Game of the Week

The Giants have won every game at home and their defense is improvingDallas has a banged up secondary that is not very goodand their QB Johnson has not shown that he can make big plays.The Cowboys miss Romo and Parcells.Lay the points

New England +6 NBC 8:15

Indy 2-7-1 L/10 at home in this series. They have scored over 21 points only 2 times this season and their ground attack has been outrushed 922 to 420.They have lost 4 of their 5 home games this season.

Total Play of the Week

Philadelphia vs Seattle UNDER 42.5

Seattle defense has definitely improved their last 3 games.Seahawks are expected to be without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck for a fourth straight game.Both teams play ball control.

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 8:18 pm
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Al Demarco
10 Dimer

NY Giants

 
Posted : November 1, 2008 10:27 pm
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JEFFERSONSPORTS
EARLY RELEASE 3-2-1 yest
NFL EARLY RELEASE

BUFFALO-5

 
Posted : November 2, 2008 12:06 am
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Fatjack

Green Bay +5.5
Baltimore/Cleveland Over 36.5

 
Posted : November 2, 2008 2:30 am
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Rocketman

Baltimore / Cleveland
Play: 3* Cleveland -1 1/2

Cleveland is 22-9 ATS last 3 years when playing on grass. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS last 3 years when playing in November. Cleveland is 11-2 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Cleveland is 10-3 SU and ATS last 3 years as a favorite. Ravens are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games. Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Browns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Browns are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Browns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC. Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 9. Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Browns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. Browns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North. Browns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win. Home team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cleveland. We'll play Cleveland for 3 units today!

Green Bay / Tennessee
Play: 3* Green Bay +4

Green Bay is 14-5 ATS on the road the past 3 years. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS last 3 years in a road game when the total is between 38 1/2 and 42 points. Green Bay is scoring 27.7 points per game overall this year and 32 points per game on the road this season. Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Packers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Packers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win. Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Packers are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall. Packers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. We'll play Green Bay for 3 units today!

Atlanta / Oakland
Play: 3* Oakland +3

Atlanta is scoring only 14.7 points per game on the road this year while allowing 24.7 points per game on the road this season. Oakland is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Atlanta since 1992. Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November. Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. We'll play Oakland for 3 units today!

 
Posted : November 2, 2008 2:33 am
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DOC

4 Unit Play.Take Cleveland Browns over Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been feasting on cupcakes the last two weeks and all four of their victories have come against teams with losing records. The Browns picked up an impressive victory last week in Jacksonville and now have a chance to even up their record at 4-4 with a home victory. Baltimore struggles against good teams and this is their third road game in their last four. QB Flacco is start to get figured out as the season progresses and we will collect with easy with this homer. Cleveland 24, Baltimore 13.

 
Posted : November 2, 2008 2:33 am
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BEN BURNS

NON CONFERENCE TOTAL OF YEAR

I'm playing on Tennessee and Green Bay to finish UNDER the number. These teams both saw their last game finish above the total. Those results have helped provide us with a very generous number for this afternoon's game. While Green Bay's defense has only been "average" (allowing 22.7 points per game and 321 yards per game) I believe that the Packers are better defensively than is indicated by their stats. Note that their numbers are improving as they allowed 17 points two games ago and then held the Colts to just 14 last time out. The Packers have now held 10 straight opponents to 30 points or less and that includes games against the likes of last year's Giants and Cowboys. Note that the Packers are coming off a bye and that extra week of rest should allow them to get cornerback Al Harris and/or safety Atari Bigby back from injury. Meanwhile, Tennessee comes in allowing a mere 12.4 points per game. That's the best mark in the entire league. The Titans are coming off a Monday night victory over the Colts. That's worth noting as they've seen the UNDER go 2-0 the previous two seasons when coming off a Monday night game. At 33.7 per game, the Titans have the second most rushing attempts in the entire league. As you know, frequent rushing attempts help to keep the clock moving. Look for a heavy dose of the run from both teams as this well-played defensive affairs proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Non Conference TOY

AFC EAST GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with the NEW YORK JETS. I successfully played against the Bills last week and feel that they're over-valued again this week. The Bills lost 25-16 at Miami last week. They did earn a solid win vs. a good San Diego team in their previous game. However, it should be noted that they were coming off a bye while catching the West Coast based Chargers off a big game vs. New England and playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. The loss to the Dolphins was a tough one as the Bills made some key mistakes and blew a big lead. Even coach Dick Jauron admitted that it's tough not to dwell on that type of loss. He was quoted as saying: "It's hard when you lose to leave it and let it go regardless of what's coming up." In addition to having to overcome a difficult loss, the Bills are dealing with some key injuries. Defensive end Aaron Schobel (foot) and right guard Brad Butler (knee) are both out. More importantly, star receiver Josh Reed will be out. Reed, second on the team in receiving, is a favorite target on 3rd down and will definitely be missed. Entering this week, Reed was tied for 16th in the AFC with eight catches for 116 yards on third down. The Jets are 3-1 their last four games and the lone loss came by just a field goal. They lost by just three points here last season while winning by eight here in 2006. While many are beginning to get down on Brett Favre due to some recent interceptions, the future hall-of- famer is still completing 68.5 percent of his passes and has 15 touchdown passes. Both those marks are the second best in the entire league. The Jets are running the ball well recently, with 377 rushing yards the past two games. They've also been great all season at stopping the run, allowing an average of only 82.6 rushing yards per game. That's the fifth best mark in the league and third best in the AFC. Look for the Jets to earn at least the cover and don't be surprised if there's a 3-way tie on top of the AFC East by the end of the day. *AFC East GOY

NON CONFERECE GAME OF MONTH

I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. The Falcons have exceeded expectations, as few expected them to have a winning record (4-3) through the first eight weeks of the regular season. Give them credit for that. That being said, I don't feel that they're ready to be laying points on the road. A closer look shows that they're 3-0 at home (two of the wins came against Detroit and KC and the other was by 2 points) while just 1-3 on the road. Note that the lone road win came by just three points. In their four road games, they've been outscored by a 24.7 to 14.7 margin, while being outgained by an average of 388 total yards to 301. They're coming off a hard-fought physical loss vs. the Eagles and are now flying across the country to play their second consecutive road game. While the bettors are beginning to embrace the Falcons, the betting public is really down on the Raiders. That's just fine, as that perception is providing us with excellent line value. It's true that the Raiders have struggled on the road. Like the Falcons, they're 1-3 on the road. Road trips are often difficult for the Raiders though, as they had to cross time zones for all four of those games. They've actually been quite good at home though. Their three home games all came against teams which are better than the Falcons, in my opinion. They did struggle in their opening game against Denver. However, they followed that up by nearly knocking off San Diego. While they did lose that game in the end, they dominated much of the way. Then, in their most recent game here, they knocked off Brett Favre and the Jets. With the possible exception of a Week 13 game vs. the Chiefs, who will be playing with "revenge," this represents the Raiders most winnable game on the rest of the schedule. The Raiders know they've been listed as home underdogs and I expect them to take that personally. While I'll gladly take the points, I look for the Raiders to deliver a highly motivated effort and look for them to score the outright victory. *Non-Conf GOM.

NFC GAME OF WEEK

I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. Seneca Wallace is expected to get his third straight start for the Seahawks. In my opinion, that's not as big a negative as the majority of the betting public believes. While they were admittedly somewhat fortunate to cover at Tampa Bay two weeks ago, the Seahawks were terrific with Wallace leading the show at San Francisco last week. Wallace didn't turn the ball over and he was 15-of-25 for 222 yards with a pair of touchdowns. The Seahawks were listed as underdogs, yet won by a score of 34-15. Coach Holmgren had this to say: "I told Seneca, I told our receivers, 'Hey, look it, instead of being so careful about everything and almost calling the game defensively, we are going to kind of let it go a little bit. Everyone's getting paid in the room. So you have a responsibility, too. And let's play' and they responded to that. I suspect we will keep doing that." Yes, the Eagles are playing well and yes they are off back to back SU and ATS victories. However, those who watched those games know that the Eagles didn't cover until the final couple of minutes in each of those games and that both games were much closer than indicated by the final scores. Prior to that, the Eagles had gone 0-2 SU/ATS. I believe that this will prove to be a very difficult scheduling spot. Not only will the Eagles be returning to the West Coast for the second time in three games but they've also got a huge divisional Sunday Night showdown vs. the defending Super Bowl champion Giants on deck. The Seahawks, 4-1 their last five against teams from the NFC East, are still 15-6 their last 21 home games and two of those losses came by just a field goal. The Seahawks are also 11-6 ATS the last 17 times they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Look for the Seahawks to build momentum from last week's victory as they give the Eagles all they can handle and earn at least the cover. *NFC GOW

SUNDAY NIGHT COLLEGE GAME OF YEAR

I'm taking the points with CENTRAL FLORIDA. Everyone saw the Knights get blown out on National TV last Sunday. That result has provided us with some additional line value for tonight's game. It should also provide plenty of motivation for the Knights, as they were embarrassed and don't want to same thing to happen on National TV for the second straight week. Last week's game came on the road vs. an explosive Tulsa team. It should be noted that UCF actually led at halftime and held the Golden Hurricane well below their season average in total yards and points. Tonight's game comes at home where the Knights are 2-1 on the season. The lone loss came vs. South Florida and the Knights covered in that game, losing by seven as 14 point underdogs. Looking back further and we find the Knights at an impressive 8-1 their last nine home games. While the Knights are outscoring opponents by a 24-16 margin here at home, the Pirates are being outscored by a 30 to 24 margin on the road. They're already 0-3 ATS when listed as road favorites this season and are 1-5 ATS since 2006 as favorites of six points or less. While the Pirates do have the advantage of having had a bye last week, it's worth noting that they're just 11-18 ATS their last 29 lined games after a bye week. In addition to being motivated to avoid another embarrassing loss on National TV, the Knights will be desperately trying to get back in the Conference USA East race. A loss here and they are done but a win and they're right back in the thick of things. Additionally, the Knights have payback on their minds after suffering a tough loss at East Carolina last season. A closer look at the stats from that game shows that the Knights ran 90 plays to the Pirates 64. The Knights also had a significant edge in first downs (29-16) and time of possession, while outgaining the Pirates by a whopping 495 to 370 margin in total yards. That game was at East Carolina, yet UCF was favored by four. Now, the Knights are playing a "must win" game at home and getting points. I feel that provides us with excellent value and I'm backing the revenge-minded home dog. *NCAA Sunday Night GOY

 
Posted : November 2, 2008 2:35 am
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