Football Jesus
Cleveland Browns-1
Eddie Roman
Once a Year 30,000 Unit Personal Game of the Year
Denver Broncos -3.5 over Miami
NELLY
Nfl
5 buffalo
4 dallas
3 miami
2 minn
1 oak
system:tenn over
Kiki Sports
2 units Buffalo -5
1 unit Arizona/ St.Louis OVER 48.5
1 unit Miami +3.5
1 unit NY Giants -9
1 unit New England +6
John Fina
3 units St. Louis Rams +3.5
2 units Cincinnati Bengals +8.5
2 units Minnesota Vikings -5
2 units Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9
Steve Merril
Atlanta Falcons vs. Oakland Raiders
Play RAIDERS (+) as a 1½ unit play.
Youngstown Connection
Cleve -1.5
Minn -4.5
Oak +3
Computer Crushers
Date: Sunday, November 02, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: The STRONGEST PLAY in the NFL is now 12-3 on the year! Everyone knows about the COLLEGE CRUSHERS but did you know that our NFL CRUSHERS were 22-8 last season! Today you can get our $500K NFC CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR for just $35 and you will pay only after you win - GUARANTEED!! 11/2/2008
$500K NFC CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR
421 Philadelphia -6.5 4:15 EST
TRACE ADAMS
Oakland Raiders
(no rating)
igz1 sports
NFL
5* Houston +5 (-110)
4* Over 48.5 (-110) Arizona vs St. Louis
3* Tampa Bay -9 (-110)
3* Cleveland -1 (-115)
3* Over 41.5 (-110) New York-A vs Buffalo
3* Over 40.5 (-110) Greenbay vs Tennessee
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - HOUSTON
20 DIMER - BUFFALO
10 DIMERS - NEW ENGLAND, & OAKLAND
Does anybody have Steve Buden's teaser today?
charlies sports
nfl. ravens @ browns under 36' & tampa bay @ kansas city under 37 (500* )
nfl. green bay+4' (30*)
nfl. falcons @ raiders under 41' (20*)
nfl. dallas+8' (20*)
nfl. jets+5' (10*). .
nfl. detroit+13 (10*) free play
SIXTH SENSE
MINNESOTA –4.5 Houston 47
Vikings come off their bye week after losing at Chicago 48-41. Minnesota out gained the Bears in that game, 5.9yppl to 5.8yppl but five Minnesota turnovers to just one for Chicago did them in. Houston comes off their drubbing of Cincinnati last week, 35-6, out gaining Cincinnati 6.4yppl to 4.5yppl, including throwing for 9.5yps and allowing hapless Cincinnati to throw for just 4.4yps. Minnesota averages just 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr and is throwing for just 5.7yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense allows just 2.9ypr against 3.8ypr and 6.3yps against 6.6yps for a total of 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Houston comes off four straight home games and is averaging 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense hasn’t been nearly as good allowing 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Minnesota qualifies in a negative situation based on their poor defensive effort at Chicago, which is 83-39-4 and plays against them here. Minnesota qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 654-527-42 but they don’t qualify in the best subset of that situation. Numbers favor Minnesota by four points and predict about 54 points. This would appear to be a great set up for Minnesota, laying a short number against a poor defensive team that hasn’t seen the road in over a month. If it weren’t for the situation playing against them I would consider playing Minnesota. Minnesota also played a similar type poor defense in Detroit and could muster just 12 points in a 12-10 win, which is also enough to keep me off of them here. Slight lean towards Minnesota. MINNESOTA 30 HOUSTON 24
Jacksonville –7.5 CINCINNATI 39.5
I wanted to play against Jacksonville last week but I didn’t have any situations to back my instincts. I also considered playing Cincinnati and thankfully didn’t. Jacksonville lost at home to Cleveland, 17-23 and were out gained 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl, including 8.4yps to 5.9yps. Cincinnati was blown out at Houston, 35-6 and out gained 6.4yppl to 4.5yppl. They allowed Houston 9.5yps and passed for just 4.4yps themselves. Since Carson Palmer went down a recurring theme as been low yards per pass numbers with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That makes it hard to score points and thus win games. Jacksonville averages 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Cincinnati averages just 3.4ypr against 3.7ypr, 4.1yps against 5.6yps and 3.8yppl against 4.8yppl. The defense has been good but is showing a few cracks in the armor, now allowing 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl, which makes them average. They had been slightly above average in prior weeks. Cincinnati qualifies in a winless situation, which is 78-34-6 and they also qualify in my turnover table, which is 385-244-18. Numbers only favor Jacksonville by 3.5 points and predict about 40 points. Jacksonville has yet to defeat a team by more than seven points. Unfortunately, Cincinnati has only stayed within less than seven points in one game this year. I’ll respect the situations and the numbers to lean towards Cincinnati but it’s very hard to support them with a Best Bet until I see some improvement. JACKSONVILLE 23 CINCINNATI 17
Tampa Bay –9 KANSAS CITY 37
TB failed to put away Dallas early last week and it ended up costing them a victory. They out gained Dallas 4.0yppl to 2.8yppl. The 4.0yppl isn’t that great but allowing just 2.8yppl is great and a team shouldn’t lose when doing that. KC lost at NY in a close game by four points but they were out gained 6.4yppl to 5.5yppl. They were out rushed 5.6ypr to 4.0ypr and out passed 6.8yps to 6.3yps. The 6.3yps was a definite improvement over what they had done in prior weeks with Tyler Thigpen. It was three Brett Favre interceptions that kept KC in the game. TB averages just 5.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against 6.8yps and 4.7yppl against 5.6yppl. Those solid defensive numbers should make it difficult for KC to move the ball considering they average just 4.4yps against 6.1yps and 4.4yppl against 5.3yppl. And KC allows 5.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.2yps and 6.4yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations in this game and numbers favor TB by five points and predict about 31 points. TB has yet to win a road game by more than three points this year but they have played much tougher competition than KC on the road. TAMPA BAY 21 KANSAS CITY 10
CLEVELAND –1.5 Baltimore 36.5
Cleveland looked solid last week winning at Jacksonville 23-17. They out gained Jacksonville 6.3yppl to 5.1yppl and out passed Jacksonville 8.4yps to 5.9yps. Baltimore won easily against Oakland, 29-10 and out gained them 5.3yppl to 4.2yppl. The Baltimore offensive numbers could have been greater but they ran the ball 46 times to dilute the overall numbers. Baltimore averages 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl and they allow just 2.8ypr against 3.9ypr and 4.4yppl against 4.9yppl. Cleveland averages just 4.6yppl against 4.9yppl and is allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 5.9yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Those numbers would suggest Baltimore is better from the line of scrimmage although playing on the road is always an obstacle for Baltimore. The Ravens did win 27-13 two weeks ago at Miami. Other than their blowout loss at Indy a few weeks ago Baltimore hasn’t lost a game by more than three points this year. Baltimore qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 654-527-42, including a subset, which is 525-399-30. Numbers favor Baltimore by three points and predict about 33 points. I am always leery about taking a team like the Ravens on the road with a poor quarterback but they are facing a defense that can be moved on. Cleveland hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in any one game over the last four weeks. I’ll take my chances with the better defense and running game. BALTIMORE 20 CLEVELAND 14
BUFFALO –5.5 NY Jets 41.5
Buffalo lost at Miami last week 25-16 and were out gained in that game 6.2yppl to 5.3yppl. They did out rush Miami 4.4ypr to 1.9ypr but were out passed 9.9yps to just 5.9yps. The Jets won at home over KC, 28-24, in a close game but out gained KC 6.4yppl to 5.5yppl. It was three Brett Favre turnovers that kept KC in the game. The Jets average 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.8yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl. Favre isn’t what he used to be but I am still surprised their passing numbers aren’t better. The defense has played well allowing just 3.2ypr against 3.9ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Buffalo averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.7yppl overall. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 654-527-42, including a subset, which is 525-399-30. Numbers favor Buffalo by just one point and predict about 48 points. The Jets have only lost three of the past ten seasons in Buffalo by more than five points. Buffalo has been pretty good at home but this is a lot of points in a divisional match up and I am willing to take a shot with the Jets. NY JETS 26 BUFFALO 24
Arizona –3 ST LOUIS 48
Arizona looked pretty impressive last week despite losing at Carolina by four points. They out gained Carolina 6.3yppl to 6.1yppl. They passed for 7.1yps but allowed Carolina to throw for 8.2yps. The Rams lost at NE but out gained NE 5.6yppl to 5.4yppl. It was the Rams first loss with Jim Haslett coaching them. Arizona averages 7.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.0yppl overall. They allow 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl, including 6.9yps against 6.7yps to place them slightly below average against the pass. The Rams average just 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. But, since Haslett took over they have averaged 7.1yps last week and 6.0yps the week before against Dallas. They weren’t as good the week before that at Washington (4.4yps) but this also isn’t the Redskins pass defense they will face. The Rams allow 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.3yps against 6.4yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. Arizona qualifies in my turnover table, which is 385-244-18. Numbers favor Arizona by 5.5 points and predict about 53 points. I’ll take a shot with Arizona because they are the better team but the Rams have played well in their last few games and have put up decent numbers at home in their last few games. The Rams have totaled at least 50 points combined in five of the last six games played here between these two and this figures to be a high scoring game again. ARIZONA 37 ST LOUIS 24
CHICAGO –12.5 Detroit 43
Detroit has played better as of late but not good enough to win. They lost to Washington last week by eight and were out gained 6.9yppl to 5.4yppl. They allowed Washington to pass for 9.8yps. The Bears come off their bye week after defeating Minnesota 48-41 the week prior to the bye week. They benefited from five Minnesota turnovers in that game. Detroit averages just 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Since Dan Orlovsky has started he hasn’t thrown any interceptions, which has helped Detroit stay a little more competitive in their games. The defense is still well below average allowing 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 8.4yps against 6.4yps and 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl overall. Chicago averages 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow just 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The Bears qualify in a negative situation based on their poor defensive effort vs Minnesota, which is 83-39-4 and plays against them here. Detroit qualifies in a winless situation, which is which is 78-34-6 and they also qualify in my turnover table, which is 385-244-18. Numbers favor Chicago by 15.5 points and predict 49 points. Chicago hasn’t won a home game by more than seven points this year although they have faced much better competition than the Lions. Detroit has lost only one road game by more than 13 points and that was by 18 points at SF. Both teams have totaled at least 41 points combined in their games this year with the exception of one game for each. Lean is towards Detroit and the over. CHICAGO 30 DETROIT 20
TENNESSEE –4.5 Green Bay 41
The Titans covered for me on Monday night but they didn’t get the job done the way I imagined they would. I expected Tennessee to run the ball down Indy’s throat but instead they passed the ball 37 times to attempt to open up the running game. That never really happened as they averaged just 2.8ypr while allowing Indy to average 4.3ypr. Tennessee did average 5.2yps to Indy’s 5.4yps but for the game they were out gained 5.0yppl to 4.1yppl but benefited from two Indy turnovers. GB comes off their bye week and is much healthier after getting back Al Harris and Atari Bigby. GB defeated Indy in much easier fashion the week before their bye week, 34-14, returning two interceptions for touchdowns. GB averages 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl to make them average on offense. The defense allows 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl to make them about average on defense. That makes them an average team all the way around. Tennessee averages 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl on offense making them below average on offense. The defense has been stellar allowing just 4.9yps against 5.5yps and 4.4yppl against 4.8yppl overall. Tennessee qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 88-48-7 and 654-527-42 (subset, which is 525-399-30. Numbers favor Tennessee by eight points and predict about 46 points. GB really struggled in their lone road game against a physical defense, which was TB, where they lost 30-21. I expect more of the same here as Tennessee should be able to rush the ball, throw when they have to and play very physical defense against GB to disrupt their offensive schemes. TENNESSEE 30 GREEN BAY 17
DENVER –3 Miami 50
Miami comes in after a nice outing against Buffalo in their 25-16 win. The Dolphins out gained Buffalo 6.2yppl to 5.3yppl, including throwing for 9.9yps to 5.9yps for Buffalo. They only rushed for 1.9ypr and allowed Buffalo 4.4ypr. Denver comes in off their bye week after getting crushed in New England, 41-7. They were out rushed 6.8ypr to 4.1ypr and out gained for the game 5.9yppl to 4.7yppl and lost the turnover battle 0-5. Miami averages a very surprising 7.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Their offense, however, is only averaging 21 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game so despite the positive offensive numbers, it’s not turning into the same amount of points. On defense, they are allowing 7.2yps against 6.6yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They also only allow 21 points per game against teams averaging 25 points per game. Denver averages 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr and 7.0yps against 6.5yps for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.6yppl. Unfortunately, their defense, which is banged up, allows 5.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Since week one Denver hasn’t defeated anybody by more than three points. Denver qualifies in a negative situation, which is 83-39-4 and plays against them here. Denver also qualifies in my turnover table, which is 385-244-18. Numbers favor Denver by just one point and predict 49 points. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 42-12-1. I think the only natural side here is Miami based on Denver’s poor defensive numbers. This should be a high scoring game but I will respect my numbers and the under situation as well. MIAMI 24 DENVER 23
Atlanta –3 OAKLAND 41.5
Atlanta is off their loss at Philly, 14-27, in which they were out gained 6.4yppl to 4.8yppl, getting out rushed 6.0ypr to 3.2ypr and out passed 6.7yps to 5.6yps. Oakland was in a bad situation at Baltimore and facing a tough defense with their anemic offense. The Raiders were out gained 5.3yppl to 4.2yppl, getting out passed 7.3yps to 5.1yps and out rushed 4.2ypr to 2.5ypr. Atlanta averages 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is allowing 4.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Oakland averages just 5.3yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl so they are well below average on offense, especially throwing the ball. On defense they allow 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game. Numbers favor Atlanta by three points and predict about 37 points. Tough call for me. I will call this a three point game and let the spread determine which way I lean. ATLANTA 20 OAKLAND 17
NY GIANTS –8.5 Dallas 41.5
Giants were able to take advantage of four Pittsburgh turnovers last week in their 21-14 win. They held Pittsburgh to just 4.5yps while gaining 6.2yps themselves. The Steelers did hold down a very good Giants rushing offense to 2.4ypr and gained 4.3ypr. Dallas managed a win at home against TB but it was less than spectacular. They held TB to just 4.0yppl, including 2.4ypr, which is impressive. But, their offense managed just 2.8yppl, 2.8yps and 2.7ypr, which won’t get it done on most Sundays. The Giants average 5.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.7yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.8yppl against 4.8yppl. Dallas has not been good since Brad Johnson took over for Tony Romo. They may also be without Jason Witten this week. The Cowboys are already hurting on defense with injuries and suspensions to the secondary. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by 8.5 points and predict about 50 points. Those numbers also include Dallas games with Tony Romo. I’m not sure the game will be that high scoring seeing Dallas is struggling so badly on offense. NY GIANTS 27 DALLAS 17
Philadelphia –7 SEATTLE 42.5
Philly was impressive against Atlanta last week, defeating the Falcons 27-14 and out gaining them 6.4yppl to 4.8yppl, including averaging 6.0ypr and holding a good Atlanta rushing attack to just 3.2ypr. Seattle defeated SF 34-13 but were out gained 5.3yppl to 4.8yppl. Seattle rushed the ball for just 1.4ypr while allowing 5.2ypr to SF. They did gain 8.5yps but had two screen passes ultimately go for 105 yards and two touchdowns. Without those plays, they averaged just 3.0yppl and 4.9yps. Philly averages 6.8yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Seattle averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr but just 4.7yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense is allowing 6.9yps against 6.1yps and 6.1yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Philly by 6.5 points and predict about 48 points. Philly is simply the much better team in this game and I will lean that way. PHILADELPHIA 30 SEATTLE 17
INDIANAPOLIS –6 New England 43.5
NE got by the Rams last week 23-16 but were out gained in the game 5.6yppl to 5.4yppl. The Rams average just 5.3yps and 4.7yppl for the season. If you take away a 69 yard touchdown pass to Donnie Avery, their numbers on Sunday are pretty close to those seasonal numbers. Indy was defeated at Tennessee on Monday night but they out gained the Titans 5.0yppl to 4.1yppl but two costly turnovers did them in. NE averages just 5.5yps against 6.8yps and 4.9yppl against 5.7yppl overall. They allow 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. Indy averages just 3.4ypr against 3.9ypr but 6.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense allows 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl and that’s not bad knowing they have been missing Bob Sanders who they get back this week. Indy qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 111-47-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Indy by 5.5 points and predict about 36 points. The situation playing against Indy is very strong but I don’t think I can play NE in this spot. They have numerous injuries on offense and defense. That makes them vulnerable in the secondary and the Colts can still throw the ball although Reggie Wayne is questionable this week. They definitely need Wayne to be effective this week. I will just lean with NE and pass on making them a Best Bet. INDIANAPOLIS 20 NEW ENGLAND 17
WASHINGTON –2 Pittsburgh 36.5
Washington defeated the Lions last week 25-17 and out gained the Lions 6.9yppl to 5.4yppl, including 9.8yps. Pittsburgh lost at home to the Giants, 14-21 and out gained the Giants 4.4yppl to 4.2yppl but were sacked five times and Roethlisberger threw four interceptions. They did hold the Giants to just 2.4ypr, which is impressive and rushed for 4.3ypr against a good Giants rush defense but they allowed 6.2yps and were held to just 4.5yps. If they can’t throw the ball better than that they will struggle against the better teams. Pittsburgh averages just 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl on offense so they are below average. The defense is allowing just 2.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.4yps against 5.9yps and 3.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Washington averages 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 5.5yps against 6.5yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. The Redskins qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6 as well as another momentum situation, which is 28-8-2. They also qualify in the same 27-8-2 Monday night situation Tennessee qualified in last week. From the fundamental side, they qualify in two rushing situations, which are 207-122-15 and 282-192-20. Numbers favor Washington by three points and predict about 33 points. Much like Tennessee and Pittsburgh (which I lost) last week, we have a good defensive team that runs the ball well playing at home laying a short number. That’s worth a look for me. WASHINGTON 21 PITTSBURGH 13
BEST BETS
YTD 29-12-1 +47.40%
3% BALTIMORE +1.5
3% NY JETS +5.5
3% ARIZONA –3
3% TENNESSEE –4.5
3% WASHINGTON –2
3% ARIZONA/ST LOUIS OVER 48