ATS Lock Club
6 units Denver -3
5 units Ariz -3
4 units Indy -6
Seabass
100* "Steam Play" Dallas.
Seabass
100* "Steam Play" Dallas.
50 C FLA
50 SEA
50 NYJ
50 OAK
50T AZ/AZ over
50T MIN over/JAX over
50T MIA/MIA over
Kelso
50 units Jax
10 units Colts -6
10 units Colts/Pats UNDER 44
10 units Parlay both above
5 units Browns -1.5
4 units Tampa Bay -9
3 units Eagles -6.5
Pure Lock
Tampa Bay
charlies sports
nfl. ravens @ browns under 36' & tampa bay @ kansas city under 37 (500* )
Is the above play a parlay? 8)
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive-Sunday
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: 5* Buffalo Bills -5
The Bills return home after losing a tough game to the Dolphins in Miami last Sunday and will host their divisional rivals the New York Jets on Sunday. The Jets come in off a very tough win against the Kansas City Chiefs, a game in which they gave up 24 points to a third-string QB and a backup running back last Sunday.
The Buffalo Bills have lost sole possession of first place in the AFC East and look to at least keep pace when they host Favre and the Jets in a key divisional matchup Sunday.Buffalo has dropped two of its last three games to fall into a tie with New England for first place, with New York only one game behind.After overcoming fourth quarter deficits three times this season, the Bills collapsed late against Miami by turning the ball over on each of their final four possessions, including a safety.Edwards struggled for the most part all day versus the Dolphins but really struggled when it counted. His fourth quarter interception led to the Dolphins scoring a go-ahead field goal and he fumbled while attempting to convert a third-and-1 at the Miami 33-yard line with Buffalo trailing by four points.Later in the quarter, Edwards was caught in the end zone for a safety, and Miami put the game away with a field goal on its ensuing drive.It was an uncharacteristic game for Edwards, who had not committed a turnover in the fourth quarter this season. This bureau believes lightning will not strike twice where Edwards is concerned; returning home and facing a key divisional opponent we will get his best effort and a win on Sunday.New York, meanwhile, got a big play from receiver Laveranues Coles and Favre in a 28 to 24 win over Kansas City. Favre had a mistake filled game, but threw a 15-yard pass that Coles snatched with one arm in front of the end zone for the go ahead score with a minute left in the fourth to secure their win over the Chiefs.Favre struggled for the third straight game, throwing three interceptions in a contest for the first time since 2006. The third one was returned 91 yards for a touchdown by Chiefs rookie Brandon Flowers to put Kansas City ahead.Favre has thrown seven interceptions in his last three games and is tied for the NFL lead with 11. Favre has been sacked 16 times, one more than all of last season with Green Bay, and has been knocked around in recent games.For the Jets to have any chance they must establish the running game and Favre can ill-afford to throw any INT’s in this contest as this Bills team is much more talented than the Kansas City Chiefs.The team that wins the turnover battle will have a huge edge at not just winning the game but covering the spread. Its well documented teams with the turnover edge win and cover the number at a very high rate in the NFL.In the last 8 years when any team has a +3 or more net turnover advantage they have covered the spread 93% of the time going 425-31 ATS, including 50-4 ATS in 2007. The Bills have the edge right now with only a -2 in turnover margin while the Jets check in with a -6 on the season.We expect the Bills will be prepared for Favre on the defensive side of the ball and we should get a much better effort out of Trent Edwards against the Jets “D”. Special teams, turnovers and the home field will be just what the doctor ordered for the Bills to keep pace with the Patriots for the lead in the East on Sunday.
Technical support for our selection comes from both teams today. The Bills are 109-86-4 ATS at home, 80-57-2 ATS as Home Favorite, 40-27-2 ATS as Home Favorite (3 -> 6.5), 54-34-5 ATS after 1 Losses (3 -> 6.5), 93-69-6 ATS after 1 ATS Loss, 97-75-5 ATS after 1 away and 54-29-5 ATS after 1 ATS Loss (3 -> 6.5). Bills are 35-19-3 ATS All Games (3 -> 6.5), 14-6-1 ATS as Favorite (3 -> 6.5) and 13-4-2 ATS after 1 ATS Loss (3 -> 6.5). Jets are 10-20-3 ATS as Dog (3 -> 6.5), 5-12-2 ATS as Away Dog (3 -> 6.5) and 9-17-2 ATS After 1 Wins (3 -> 6.5).
The Jets are 4-20-1 ATS when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Jets are 0-8 ATS as a dog the week after in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Jets are 0-9 ATS the week after in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Jets are 4-13 ATS as a dog when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Jets are 4-11-1 ATS on the road when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Bills are 12-3 ATS at home the week after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers. The Bills are 12-4 ATS since November 05, 2006 at home. The Bills are 5-0 ATS as a home favorite when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road and the line was within 3 of pick'em.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that tells us In Games 7-15, play ON a home team with a TOTAL over 36 points off an ATS loss at Miami last week vs. an opponent not off a non-division home favorite SU & ATS win in its last game, 10-0 ATS since 1998 and averages covering the spread by 11.2 points per game.
With strong fundamental, situational and technical support we will make the Bills our NFL AFC Game of the Week for Week 9 of the NFL Season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Buffalo Bills -5
Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: 4* Minnesota Vikings -4.5
The Minnesota Vikings are coming in off of their bye week after losing a shoot-out against the Chicago Bears 48 to 41 before their break. The Texans enter today’s contest off a blow-out win over the hapless Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday 35 to 6.
The Texans were an 8-8 team in 2007 and came into the season with playoff aspirations but it took them five games to win one, now they're riding the longest winning streak in franchise history. Houston's win over Cincinnati last week made it three in a row all at Reliant Stadium where its 11-3 since December of '06.
We must note that the wins that the Houston Texans have amassed the last three weeks have come against teams with a combined record of 3-17 SU. Prior to the Cincinnati game the Texans “D” had allowed 31 points per game in the eight previous contests.
Minnesota’s offense that piled up 439 yards against the Chicago Bears in their last outing should find the going easy against this Texans defense. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson has not put up the numbers like he did last season but he has four 100 yard games this season and has averaged 98 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. He will now face a defense that allows over 120 yards rushing per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
The Houston offense has faced the number 17, 20, 32 and 22nd ranked defenses in the league it will be facing a much stiffer challenge here today as the Vikings field the number 8 ranked “D” in the league. Texans QB Matt Schaub has played well of late but he will now be in a very noisy venue with the number twelve ranked pass rush which will make for a long afternoon for he and the Texans.
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS off their bye week facing an opponent off a SU win in their last game. The Vikings are a perfect 8-0 ATS in November when playing off a SU loss and they do not have a winning record on the year. The Vikings are 22-6-1 ATS at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Vikings are 10-3-1 ATS when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The Vikings are 11-2 ATS at home when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Texans are 2-12 ATS as a dog after a straight up win at home. The Texans are 2-11 ATS on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week at home. The Texans are 3-12 ATS after playing as a favorite. The Texans are 2-10 ATS as a road dog when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week at home. The Texans are 0-6 ATS as a dog when one game under 500. The Texans are 3-28 SU when playing on the road if they played at home previously. That record is 1-11 both SU and ATS their last 12 in that role.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play ON a team (not a favorite of 9+ points or underdog of 11+ points) off a road SU loss scoring 36+ points, 15-0 ATS since 1995 and averages covering the spread by 11.1 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Minnesota Vikings -4.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Prediction: 4* New York Giants -8.5
The New York Giants will play host to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. The Giants enter today’s contest off a huge road win at the Pittsburgh Steelers while Dallas was able to handle Tampa at home last week.
Even though the Giants are off that huge win over the Steelers they know how important today’s game is for them in the division. They will not take the Cowboys for granted even without Romo at QB because they lost twice to Dallas last season during the regular season and certainly don’t want to take a loss when they feel the have the upper hand.
With QB Brad Johnson as the starter the Cowboys have only managed 439 yards of offense in its last twenty-two drives and 90 of those yards came at the end of the Rams game. Johnson has limitations and they will be exposed by this Giants “D” on Sunday.
The Giants pass rush has been nothing short of awesome of late with 11 sacks in the last two games. Unless Dallas is able to establish some sort of rushing attack it is going to be a long afternoon for one Brad Johnson.
On offense the Giants should be able to cause match up problems in the Dallas secondary as they are suffering from the injury bug and one is serving another suspension (pacman). With Burress, Toomer and slot receiver Steve Smith the Giants have a huge edge in this aspect of the game.
The Giants rushing attack has been slowed from its early season success but we expect to see not only starter Brandon Jacobs but also Derrick Ward who caught five passes last week and has proven he can get tough yards after first contact.
Technical support for our selection comes from both teams. The Giants are 11-1 ATS when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Giants are 27-13-0 ATS as Home (7 -> 9.5), 22-10-0 ATS as Home Favorite (7 -> 9.5), 69-51-3 ATS after 2 Wins, 24-11-0 ATS after 1 Away (7 -> 9.5), and 20-9-0 ATS after 2 Wins (7 -> 9.5). The Cowboys are 79-102-6 ATS after 1 Home and 08-13-02 ATS facing the Giants on the road. The Cowboys are 4-14-1 ATS on the road the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers. The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Cowboys are 3-12 ATS on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home. The Cowboys are 4-13-1 ATS when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as a road 7+ dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as a dog the week after a straight up win in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS on the road after playing at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em.
Data base research has uncovered key technical systems that are active for today’s match up. NFL Teams are 17-25-1 ATS as a 7+ dog after playing at home. NFL Teams are 16-27-2 ATS as a road dog versus any team with more wins after playing at home. NFL Teams are 9-21-1 ATS as a road 7+ dog the week after a win in which they were outgained. NFL Teams are 30-12-1 ATS as a 7+ favorite the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays when the line was within 3 of pick'em. NFL Teams are 12-4 ATS as a home 7+ favorite the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays when the line was within 3 of pick'em. NFL Teams are 24-16-2 ATS as a home favorite between away games.
The Giants have been solid at home this season going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS outscoring their opponents by 15.5 points per game. They are also 15-3 ATS their last 18 games when facing teams that average 350+ yards per game on offense. The Giants and Cowboys dislike each other and it comes down to who has the better team, that’s easy, the Giants!
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New York Giants -8.5
Arizona Cardinals vs. St. Louis Rams
Prediction: 6* Arizona / St. Louis Over 48
The 4-3 Arizona Cardinals travel to St. Louis to face the 2-5 Rams on Sunday afternoon. Both teams enter this contest off of SU losses but games they felt they should have won.
The Cardinals lost 27 to 23 in Carolina last week but were leading 17-3 early in the third quarter before giving up 24 of the game’s final 30 points in the loss.
Cardinals QB Kurt Warner was 35 of 49 for 381 yards passing, two touchdowns and one INT in last Sunday’s loss. Warner leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.2) and ranks second in completions (184) and passing yards (2,089). Only Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo have a better quarterback rating than Warner's 102.1 his personal best since he compiled a 109.2 rating in his Super Bowl winning 1999 campaign.
Warner makes his third visit to St. Louis since the Rams cut him before the 2004 season. He's won both of his return trips, completing 41 of 67 passes for 475 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.
The Cardinals swept their two games against the Rams last season, including a 34-31 win in St. Louis on Oct. 7. Warner didn't start that game, but went 14-for-28 for 190 yards, a touchdown and an interception in relief of Matt Leinart. He was 23-for-39 with 300 yards, three TDs and two picks in the second meeting, a 48-19 Arizona victory on Dec. 30.
The Rams are hoping their team can turn things around like Warner has with the Cardinals and under new Head Coach Jim Haslett they have certainly shown improvement.
St. Louis finished last in the NFC West with a 3-13 record last season, and then lost its first four games of 2008 by a combined 147-43 before firing Scott Linehan and promoting Haslett, previously the defensive coordinator.
The Rams responded with back-to-back victories over NFC East contenders Washington and Dallas before a 23-16 loss at New England last Sunday. After taking a 16-13 lead early in the fourth quarter, they gave up 10 unanswered points.
St. Louis QB Marc Bulger, benched by Linehan before regaining his starting job in Haslett's debut, was 18-for-34 for a season-high 301 yards last week. He connected six times with rookie Donnie Avery, who totaled 163 yards including a 69-yard touchdown reception.
Our Team Performance Ratings Index projects both teams scoring over 27.5 points in this contest. Our Math Ratings Index shows this game going “Over” the posted total by 7.9 points. Both are solid indicators and both have this game going “Over” rather easily when combined with strong technical and fundamental projections.
We also know that the Cardinals have struggled on the road going 1-3 SU this season and over their last seven road trips that are allowing 31.4 points per game. This may not have been a problem a few weeks ago but with a new HC and Marc Bulger throwing for 300+ yards against the Patriots last week gives this offense a ton of confidence which will likely translate into points against a suspect Cards “D”.
You have to go back to September of 2006 to find an “Under” in this series and that game was played in Arizona the last two here in St. Louis have seen 54 and 65 points scored respectively. Even the last game in the series which was played in the desert saw a total of 67 points scored, scoring in bunches is very common between these two teams. In fact the Cards are 5-1 Over their last 6 trips to the Ed Jones Dome with an average total scored of 53.3 points per game.
Dome teams have also seen their “totals” play to the high side with a record of 27-8-1 Over the last three seasons. If the posted total in the dome is more than 40 points that record improves to a money-making 19-4 Over. Our “dome” teams in this situation went 10-2 Over last year.
A look at the Cardinals current O/U record and it shows they are a perfect 4-0 Over their last four games. Any NFL Road Team that has gone “Over” in their last four games has posted a record of 33-13 Over and if they are facing a division opponent that record improves to a blistering 14-1 Over.
Over the last three seasons we see that when these two teams are involved in a game where both teams score at least 20 points they have gone “Over” the posted total at a combined rate of 24-2 (12-1 Over each team).
The Cardinals are 12-1 Over when their completion percentage decreased in each of their last two games. The Cardinals are 13-1 Over on the road when they lost their last two road games. The Cardinals are 15-2 Over on the road after playing as a dog. The Cardinals are 22-5 Over when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Cardinals are 12-1 Over on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Cardinals are 9-0 Over on the road the week after an away game. The Cardinals are 6-0 Over on the road when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Cardinals are 8-0 Over on the road after a straight up loss on the road.
The Rams are 14-2-1 Over at home between away games. The Rams are 20-5-2 Over at home after playing as a dog. The Rams are 13-4 Over at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Rams are 15-5 Over as a dog versus a divisional opponent when they faced non-divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. The Rams are 6-0 Over at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game. The Rams are 11-3 Over in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 24-9 Over versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt since 1992.
Data base research has uncovered several technical systems that are active for today’s contest. NFL Teams are 11-1-1 Over as a road favorite when they are one game above 500 after playing on the road. NFL Teams are 74-42-4 Over after a straight up loss as a dog. NFL Teams are 18-4 Over as a road favorite after a loss on the road as a dog in which they were winning at the half. NFL Teams are 22-4 Over on the road the week after on the road as a dog in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 11-1 Over within 3 of pick on the road the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL Teams are 13-1 Over within 3 of pick on the road the week after on the road in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average.
NFL Teams are 12-1 Over within 3 of pick on the road the week after a straight up loss on the road in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 13-3 Over as a road favorite after a loss in which they were winning at the half. NFL Teams are 6-0 Over on the road when they are one game above 500 after a straight up loss on the road. NFL Teams are 19-6-1 Over at home when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. NFL Teams are 22-5 Over as a home dog after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks.
With overwhelming technical support and very strong fundamental support we will make the “Over” in today’s contest our NFL 6* Total Game of the Year!
GRADED PREDICTION: 6* Arizona / St. Louis OVER 48
Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Prediction: 3* Houston / Minnesota Over 47
The Vikings will play host to the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon in the Twin Cities. Minnesota is coming in off their bye week while the Texans are riding high after a 3-1 home-stand which included last week’s blow-out win over the hapless Cincinnati Bengals.
The Vikings defense had its worst performance of the season the week before their bye, losing to the Bears 48 to 41. The Vikings rush defense held up its end of the bargain as they only allowed the Bears 53 yards on 22 carries. Stopping the run is overrated if the rest of your defense and special teams are horrible as is the case with the Vikings.
The Vikings pass defense gave up 274 yards on 21 of 32 passing while their offense and special teams turned the ball over five times. The Vikings are plagued by horrible special team’s play that has resulted in a blocked punt and 3 punt returns for touchdowns against them.
Another set of bad news for the Vikings is they could be without two Pro Bowl defensive linemen because of alleged violations of the NFL's policy on anabolic steroids and related substances.
Citing unidentified sources, Fox Sports reported last week that Vikings tackles Pat Williams and Kevin Williams have tested positive for a weight-loss diuretic the NFL considers a masking agent for steroids. First-time violations can bring four-game suspensions.
Pat Williams, a 12-year veteran, twice declined to take questions from reporters while the locker room was open after practice Monday. Kevin Williams, who's started 85 of a possible 87 games since he was drafted in the first round in 2003, did not appear.
Whether these two play on Sunday or not they still have problems in their pass defense and on special teams which will in turn help our case for the “Over’ in this contest.
Houston is one of the league’s better teams at special teams play. That is a huge problem for the turnover prone Vikings.
Houston is also playing well on offense averaging 5.8 yards per play on the season. This Texans team could very well be on a 5-0 run if not for an OT loss to the Jaguars and blowing a twenty-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Colts.
The success the Texans have enjoyed on the offensive side of the ball has not translated to their defense. The Texans defensive unit is allowing 5.9 yards per play this season. This also supports our selection on the “Over” in today’s match up.
Texans defensive end Mario Williams helped the Houston defense put together its best performance of the season last week. The Texans held an opponent to a single-digit point total for the first time since last season's opener and allowing a season-low 253 yards.
The defense will again be put to the test against the Vikings, who totaled a season-high 439 yards in the loss to the Bears. Though he threw four interceptions, Gus Frerotte was 25-for-40 for 298 yards and two touchdowns. Adrian Peterson, second in the league with 684 rushing yards, ran 22 times for 121 yards and two TDs.
The Houston offense is averaging 25 points per game while their defense is giving up 33 points per game on the highway this season. The Vikings on the other hand are scoring 22 points per game and their defense is allowing 23.9 points per game overall. The Vikings home defensive average is only 12 points per game allowed but you must look at the offensive units they faced and when they faced them.
The Texans are 8-1 Over as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 Over as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons. The Vikings are 13-4 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons and 50-31 Over after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The Texans are 15-3 Over the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers. The Texans are 13-2 Over as a dog the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers. The Texans are 11-1 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Texans are 6-0 Over when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2. The Texans are 7-0 Over on the road between home games. The Texans are 8-1 Over as a dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Vikings are 15-6-1 Over since November 17, 2002 when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Vikings are 50-31 Over after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. The Vikings are 13-4 Over after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
We also note a key technical stat that could very well be active for today’s match up. It states that the Vikings are 87-8 Over when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992.
Data base research has uncovered a very strong set of technical systems that are active in this game. Teams that play in a “dome” and its Game Seven or more of the season and have a total that is forty or more points have gone 19-4 Over. We also find that teams off back-to-back division games and now face a non-division opponent at home fly “Over” the posted total at a rate of 24-6. If our team off the back-to-back games is also coming in off a SU and ATS loss in their last game that record soars to a money-making 12-0 Over!
NFL Teams are 30-13-1 Over when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. NFL Teams are 16-6 Over as a dog the week after a straight up win as a TD+ favorite in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Houston / Minnesota Over 47
Gus Marone
(parlay of the year)
Min/Sea
charlies sports
nfl. ravens @ browns under 36' & tampa bay @ kansas city under 37 (500* )
Is the above play a parlay? 8)
I believe it's two separate 500* plays
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - HOUSTON....20 DIMER - BUFFALO....10 DIMERS - NEW ENGLAND, & OAKLAND
50 DIMER - HOUSTON TEXANS
The G-Man is shocked the Vikings are favored by this many! Maybe, the Vikes are able to pull out the win, but a look at Minnesota's last 2 wins shows a 3-point win against New Orleans, and a 2-point win at home against lowly Detroit.
Bottom line, the Vikings will NOT cover this one!
Houston is coming on strong, winning 3 in a row, and they have been putting big numbers up on the board as well. The combination of Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson has been yielding big dividends, and pass defense has been one of Minnesota's weak spots this year.
Another Minnesota weak spot has been their special teams, as their punting coverage has been atrocious, and Housto has a good punt returner in Jacoby Jones who has already returned a pair for TDs this year.
Have to grab the points in this one, as this one has Houston cover written ALL OVER IT!
20 DIMER - BUFFALO BILLS
For those of you keeping track, Brett Favre has thrown picks in 6 straight games, and last week's 3 interception performance - including one returned over 90 yards for a score - has the G-Man raising the red flag on the Jets today!
New York has dropped the last 3 series meetings with the Bills, both straight up, and against the spread, and the Jets have also dropped their last pair of road games both straight up, and against the spread.
I expect a full bounce back from Buffalo after losing at Miami last Sunday, as the Bills are 3-0 at home, covering in 2 of 3 this season.
Overall, the Bills are on a 12-4 spread run at home their last 16.
Gotta lay the lumber with the Bills.
10 DIMER - OAKLAND RAIDERS
I must admit, I am impressed with the job 1st year coach Mike Smith, and first year quarterback Matt Ryan have done in turning around the Falcons so quickly, but today they are in a very bad spot.
Atlanta played their asses off at Philadelphia last week, only to get jobbed by the zebras on a muffed punt turnover late. Now the Falcons will have to travel west for a date with the Raiders in a game they think they should win.
Not so fast, as Oakland's last home game was an upset win against the Jets in overtime. The Falcons are playing as the road favorite first time since 2006, a role in which they have failed 2 of their last 3!
Very dicey spot for Atlanta, and they are just not ready yet to win a road game like this.
Take the Raiders.
10 DIMER - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Sure, Tom Brady is out for the year for New England, but Indianapolis is also dealing with a rash of injuries, and the fact remains Peyton Manning is certainly a notch off his usual machine-like self, as he has been picked off at will this season.
Indy is back home after dropping their last pair of games on the road, and they are just 1-3-1 against the spread as a favorite thus far this season.
New England has won their last pair of games, and 3 of 4 straight up, and this impost is just high enough where I can see the Pats sneaking inside the impost against an Indy team that will be happy with any win they can get right now.
I say take the points with the Pats who are 15-6 against the spread their last 21 as the visitor. Make that 16-6 after tonight's cover.
Trace Adams
1500* - Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was a little sluggish in Miami last week, as they lost for the 2nd time this season, but it is important to note; both of Buffalo's losses this season have come away from home. At home, the Bills are certainly a "go with", as they are 3-0 straight up this season, and they have gone 12-4 against the spread their last 16 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The Bills are on a 3 game series win, and cover streak against the Jets as well, and I love them to extend the winning numbers to 4 in a row with the win, and cover against the Flyboys today.
New York may be 3-3 straight up, but if you look close at this team you see an 0-1 spread mark when getting points, as they were clobbered on Monday night a few weeks back at San Diego. The Jets have dropped their last pair on the road, and QB Brett Favre is once again playing reckless football, as the aged #4 has thrown interceptions in 6 straight games, 3 of them last week against the Chiefs, with one of those picks going to the house!
I expect Buffalo to take care of business at home against the Jets in this spot.
Go right ahead, and lay the "chalk", as the Bills come through with my 3rd straight 1500♦ Chalk Eater Special.
1500♦ - Buffalo Bills
500♦ - Cleveland Browns
Baltimore has a little run going, as the come to Cleveland winners of 2 in a row, and they did dump the Browns 28-10 back on Week 3 of the campaign. That having been said, I am going with Cleveland in this one.
This is a tricky scheduling spot, as the Ravens do have their bye up next, but this is their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks, while Cleveland is back at home for just the 2nd time since September 21st. The Browns last home game was their eye-opening rout of the New York Giants. I think you can see that Cleveland is a team that is pretty dangerous right now, winning 3 of their last 4.
This is the first time this year the Brownies have been favored, a role in which they went 5-0 at home last season, and 8-1 overall ATS when laying points last year.
Cleveland's defense has tightened things up, allowing 12, 14, 14, and 17 points over the last 4 weeks, and today they get to ruffle rookie Joe Flacco's feathers. Flacco has shown improvement, but his road starts this year have been a little shaky.
In this near pick spot, I am going with Cleveland to get some in-season revenge. Oh, did I mention the Browns have gone 3-1 straight up, and 4-0 against the spread the last 4 series meetings at home with Baltimore?
500♦ - Cleveland Browns
LENNY STEVENS
20* GAME OF MONTH CLEVELAND
10* Detroit
10* Jets
10* Oakland
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
$500K NFC CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR
Philadelphia -6.5
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Vikings -4.5 over Texans
Minnesota matches up extremely well against this Texans team. On offense the Vikings should have no problems scoring and on defense will be able to stop the run with both the Williams in the middle of the defensive line. Minnesota is a tough place to play and they should get a big home win today.
Oakland +3 over Atlanta
I like what Matt Ryan is doing for Atlanta, but this is a young football team going against an improving Raiders team with a ton of experience. Atlanta needs to mature some more before they start consistently winning road games in hostile environments. Take the Raiders as the home dog.
Seattle +7 over Philly
The Seahawks had a ton of WR injuries this year which allowed other guys to step up. Philly has played decent, but they really are just getting by in some of their wins. Seattle always plays Philly tough and this could be a tough spot for the Eagles as they travel to the west coast with some key offensive injuries. Look for a tight game. Take the Seahawks.
Jets +5 over Bills
This is a big AFC East game and again I am not completely sold on the Bills. Buffalo QB Edwards is banged up and they will be without their top receiver today. Brett Favre knows how to win in these spots, but I look for the defense to take over today. This should be a low scoring smash mouth type game. This spread is too high. Take New York.
College Football
No plays today.
NBA Basketball
No plays today.