Dr. Bob
CLEVELAND (-3.0) 27 Denver 24
The Brady Quinn era begins for the Browns tonight, which makes this game a bit tough to forecast. The timing of the move was a bit odd considering that former starter Derek Anderson was actually playing very well over the previous 4 games after a horrible start to the season. Anderson averaged 6.9 yards per pass play over the Browns’ last 4 games, so switching to Quinn may not be a wise move. Quinn performed at decent level in the pre-season, completing 66% of mostly short passes for 6.8 yppp, but he faced a lot of reserve defensive personnel. I’ll assume that Brady will play at Cleveland’s season pass rating of 0.2 yppp worse than average and he should perform well against a porous Denver defense that has allowed 6.2 yards per play this season – although they played well in allowing just 4.9 yppl to Miami last week). Denver’s offense should also move the ball well, as the Broncos are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively while the Browns are 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. The Broncos are suffering some attrition at the running back spot, as Michael Pittman and Andre Hall were both put on IR while top back Selvin Young has missed the last few games with a tender groin and is listed as questionable for this game. The lack of running backs will probably lead to more passing and that will probably work in Denver’s favor given how poor the Browns’ pass defense is. My math model actually favors the Browns by 6 ½ points in this game if Quinn plays at the same level as Anderson, but Cleveland applies to a negative 7373-132-6 ATS situation and I’ll pass on the side in this game. But, I will lean over the 46 point total.
ATLANTA (-1.0) 28 New Orleans 23
Atlanta’s only 3 losses have been at 6-3 Tampa Bay, at 6-2 Carolina, and at 5-3 Philadelphia and the surprising Falcons have defeated solid teams Green Bay (on the road) and Chicago. Atlanta doesn’t appear to be a fluke as rookie signal caller Matt Ryan continues to play well in a balanced attack that has averaged 5.7 yppl this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). I actually rate that offense at 0.3 yppl better than average since the 9.2 yppl they averaged in their opener against Detroit has skewed their average a bit. The Falcons’ better than average attack should perform well against a sub-par Saints’ defense that has surrendered 5.7 yppl and rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average. That unit misses top cornerback Tracy Porter and now top defensive linemen Charles Grant is out for the rest of the season too – so expect the Saints to be even worse defensively the rest of the season. The Saints make up for their defense with an offense that has averaged 6.4 yppl and rates at 1.1 yppl better than average. The Falcons turned in a good defensive performance last week in Oakland, but they are still 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively and don’t figure to stop Drew Brees and company today. While the Saints have the overall advantage from the line of scrimmage the Falcons rate a significant edge in special teams with Reggie Bush (and his 3 punt return touchdowns) still out with a knee injury and my math model favors the Falcons by 4 points in this game. Atlanta would apply to a very good 76-27-2 ATS home underdog situation if they become the underdog in this game, and I’d take Atlanta in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.
CHICAGO 17 Tennessee (-3.0) 16
Chicago would have been a very good bet here if Kyle Orton were not injured, but I still like the Bears even with Rex Grossman at the controls. Orton is having a very good season, averaging 6.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) with just 4 interceptions in 7 ½ games and zero picks in 6 games this season. Orton was injured last week and former starter Rex Grossman stepped in to guide the Bears’ comeback win over the Lions. The Bears in spite of Grossman, who completed just 8 of 18 passes for 3.2 yards per pass play with an interception. Grossman’s 54.1% career completion percentage and 3.7% interception rate calculate to a little more than 4 points per game worse than Orton’s numbers and I rate the Bears’ attack at 0.5 yards per play worse than average with Grossman at quarterback. Tennessee’s defense is 0.7 yppl better than average, so I don’t expect much from the Bears’ attack in this game. However, Tennessee doesn’t figure to light up the scoreboard either, as the Titans are 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while the Bears are 0.3 yppl better than average defensively. Tennessee’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is almost made up for Chicago’s home field advantage and the Bears have better special teams. Grossman’s projected interceptions hurt the cause a bit, but my math model picks this game even. Chicago applies to a decent 55-25 ATS situation and the Bears are certainly the side to be on, but I just don’t trust Grossman enough to play the Bears as a Best Bet and I have another set of ratings that favor Tennessee by 5 points with Grossman at quarterback. I’ll lean with Chicago plus the points.
MINNESOTA (-2.5) 23 Green Bay 20
The Vikings’ Adrian Peterson hasn’t been nearly as good this season (4.7 ypr) as he was in his rookie campaign (5.6 ypr), but he’s hit his stride in recent games (371 yards at 5.2 ypr in his last 3 games) and Peterson should have another big day against a soft Packers’ defensive front that has allowed 5.1 ypr this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.3 ypr against an average team). The Packers will counter with Aaron Rodgers throwing into a mediocre secondary with time to throw the ball without having to worry about pass rushing star DE Jared Allen, who is listed as doubtful with an injured shoulder. I still give the edge to Minnesota from the line of scrimmage even after adjusting for Allen being out, but the Vikings continue to have the league’s worst special teams and my this game is a toss-up mathematically. The Vikings do apply to a 67-26-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator, so I’ll lean slightly with Minnesota at -2 ½ or less.
NY JETS (-8.5) 25 St. Louis 17
The Rams have covered the spread in 3 of 4 games under new coach Jim Haslett, but they really aren’t any better. St. Louis was out-gained 3.8 yards per play to 6.0 yppl in their misleading 19-17 win over Washington, they beat a Dallas team without Tony Romo, played pretty well against an overrated Patriots team, and were out-gained 4.2 yppl to 7.8 yppl by Arizona last week. The Rams have been out-gained 4.9 yppl to 6.3 yppl in those 4 games and their fortuitous +4 in turnover margin makes them appear like they’re getting better. The Jets are an average team and an average team should have no trouble beating up on a banged up Rams team at home. However, New York nearly lost as a big favorite against Kansas City a couple of weeks ago and the Jets apply to a very negative 69-141-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation today in addition to a 13-47-1 ATS letdown situation. The Rams are without star back Steven Jackson, along with the #2 and #3 backs, and my math model favors the Jets by 14 ½ points in this game after adjusting close to a point for Jackson’s absence (he’s not worth as much as most people think). The situations and the line value cancel each other out and I suggest passing on this game.
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) 22 Buffalo 19
New England is overrated and the Bills are fading, so I really don’t want to back either team here. The Patriots are still perceived as a pretty good team even though they’ve been out-gained by an average of 5.1 yards per play to 5.8 yppl despite facing a weak schedule of teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl and allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Buffalo has played a pretty easy schedule too, but at least the Bills have out-gained their opponents 5.5 yppl to 5.2 yppl. The Bills are starting to show cracks in their defense and the loss of S Donte Whitner will hurt that unit. My math model still only favors the Patriots by ½ a point even after adjusting nearly a point for Whitner’s absence, but the Bills apply to a negative 9-40-2 ATS situation that plays against teams coming off consecutive upset losses (not a good omen). That situation has a 59% chance of working at a fair line, but crossing over 3 points takes away all the value from that angle since 10% of games with a spread around 3 points land on the favorite wining by 3 points. I would rather have Buffalo at a line of 3 ½ points even with the negative situation – although I suggest passing this game.
Indianapolis 0 PITTSBURGH (pick) 0
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-09 - Stats Matchup
No line on this game yet, but I'll be favoring Pittsburgh to cover if the price is reasonable.
SAN DIEGO (-15.5) 33 Kansas City 19
My math model favors San Diego by 18 points in this game but the Chargers apply to a negative 36-92-1 ATS situation that plays against bad defensive teams as favorites (that makes sense). I’ll lean with Kansas City plus the points.
ARIZONA (-9.5) 27 San Francisco 17
Arizona is one of the better teams in the NFL this season, as the Cardinals have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yards per play to 5.5 yppl and their defensive rating is actually better than average if you only include the 6 games in which star S Adrian Wilson has played. The 49ers are switching to Shaun Hill at quarterback in place of the reckless J.T. O’Sullivan, who threw 11 interceptions in 7 ½ points before getting pulled against Seattle. Hill played at a decent level at the end of last season and he figures to settle for shorter passes while taking less sacks and throwing fewer interceptions. The Niners have a decent offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and a pretty good defense that’s yielded just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl to an average attack. San Francisco hasn’t reached their potential as a better than average team because of their -10 turnover margin. With O’Sullivan less likely to turn the ball over from the bench I expect the 49ers to become more competitive. Even with that being the case my math favors Arizona by 9 ½ points in this game, so I’ll pass.
Seattle (+8 1/2) 3-Stars at +7 1/2 or more, 2-Stars at +7.
Philadelphia (-2 1/2 at -120) 3-Stars at -3 (-1.15 or better) or less, 2-Stars up to -4 points.
Houston (+1) 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or better.
Oakland (+9 1/2) Strong Opinion at +7 1/2 or more.
Detroit (+6 1/2) Strong Opinion at +5 or more.
Fairway Jay
20* Minn / GB Over
Joyce Sterling
10 STAR Game of the Week
Buffalo +3.5
They have lost to New England 9 straight times. That streakshould end Sunday. Buffalo has the talent with their strong running backs and superior special teams.NE is 1-7 ATS their last 9 at home.Buff plays with revenge and urgency coming off 2 losses. We think they will be the Victor here.
Total Play of the Week
Over 43.5 Jacksonville vs Detroit
Over is 5-0-1 in Lions last 6 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-0-2 in Jaguars last 6 games in November.No defense here.The Lions are second-worst in the league in run defense, allowing 161.8 yards per game.Culpepper should start for Detroit and he has trouble controlling the ball
NBC New York Giants vs Philadelphia
Philadelphia -3
The Philadelphia Eagles, now healthy, will show they are true contenders in the conference.On a 3-0 run, they traditionally have played their best in November and December.McNabb is in top form.They are playing with revenge as NYG knocked them out of post season.The Giants have played a relatively easy schedule.
ACE-ACE
3000.00 ‘Under’ 44.5 Jacksonville at Detroit
The Lions don't have a quarterback and the Jaguars don't have a consistent offense. The Jags have been a great 'over' team over the last couple years but this line is way out of whack. Jacksonville is 0-2-1 against the total over the last three weeks and Detroit is actually 2-3-1 against the total over the last six weeks. Dante Culpepper was taking snaps with the Lions and their first-team offense this week. If there's a chance that we see him in this game then there is a chance that the Lions aren't going to score more than 14 points. These two offenses have combined to average just 37 points per game.
$2400.00 #218 Atlanta (-1) over New Orleans
People continue to doubt this Falcons team but there is no doubt that they are for real. They are physical on both sides of the ball and they are building momentum. The Saints had a lot of trouble with both Carolina and Tampa Bay, two teams that play similarly to the Falcons. I expect more of the same. This is just Atlanta's second home game in two months and I think they will be charged up for a meaningful game in front of their home crowd. Atlanta is 3-0 at home and New Orleans is 0-3 on the road. New Orleans has won four straight in this series, so revenge is on the side of the Falcons. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and the Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their last seen against the NFC.
$300.00 #227 Kansas City (+15.5) over San Diego
Betting on double-digit underdogs in the NFL is always a solid betting strategy, especially with divisional rivals. The Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and even though they aren't very good they have been playing hard. The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in this series and I don't think the Chargers are a steady favorite.
$400.00 #231 New York Giants (+3) over Philadelphia
I think that the Giants have done more to prove that they are an elite team than the Eagles have. The Giants have won five of six in this series and are 8-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Giants have also been great on the road (19-7 ATS) and are a stellar 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Catching points is just a bonus. The Giants are going to win this one outright.
3 TEAM TEASER
DET UN 54.5
NYG+3
KC+25.5 $480/$400
Sports Wise Guys
New England -4 over Buffalo
NY Giants +3 over Philadelphia
Baltimore PK over Houston
Miami/Seattle Over 43.5
Pittsburgh/Indianapolis Over 40.5
Ron Raymond
5* Minnesota Vikings -1
Bills / Patriots Under 41.5
Kevin Kavitch
San Diego needs this win and are better than their record but laying -15 with a 3-5 team? The Chiefs have battled hard the past 2 games vs the Jets and Bucs and had chances to win them both. No coincidence QB Thigpen was behind center for both. That makes their weapons like WR Bowe and TE Gonzales relevant and Jamaal Charles has looked good running the football. San Diego has only been average defensively and while I don't expect KC to win, I do expect them to hang within the big spread. A good system also lines up in our favor regarding large NFL dogs. Take Kansas City +15 for a 3* Regular Play
Jacksonville is now 1-5 S/U and 0-6 ATS as favorites and they're laying almost a TD on the road here. They've been below average on offense but surprisingly they've been below average vs both the pass & run (combined allowing 5.9 yards/play vs opponents who typically average 5.3). Not good and that includes big plays. But who wants to put their hard earned money on a winless team right? Vegas counts on this and these winless "anti-public" teams are very profitable catching significant points. The question is whether or not we can trust the Lions. What I see is a team that hasn't quit. They've played Minnesota, Houston, Washington, and Chicago tough this past month and had a chance to win all 4. I'll back them in front of the home crowd to further increase our chances of a highly motivated effort. Culpepper is the wildcard but he has Johnson to throw to deep and an improving running game. Culpepper has been throwing strong in practice. But this play is about the team and I expect them to rally around their new veteran QB. Very close to making this a Top Play but I can't in Culpepper's 1st game back. Take Detroit +6.5 for a 4* Regular Play.
DOC
3 Unit Play.Take Chicago Bears +3 over Tennessee Titans
The NFL’s lone unbeaten team will enter the Windy City on Sunday in a match-up against the first place Bears. The Bears will likely be without QB Orton but I really do not believe that is a big loss for them since QB Grossman has lead this team numerous times before. If he does not lose the game with turnovers, the Bears defense should be able to shutdown the Titans running attack. For the most part the Tennessee passing attack has been non-existent. Chicago takes down the last unbeaten team and we collect in the process as well. Chicago 21, Tennessee 17
5 Unit Play.Take Philadelphia Eagles -3 over New York Giants
The game of the week takes place in prime time as this NFC East battle is renewed. This game means much more to the Eagles since they currently sit in third place and a loss here would all but knock them out of the divisional race. Philadelphia has won three straight and all them of them have been by double digits. The Giants are coming off a dominating performance against the Cowboys, a team with no passing game but will be in for a sudden change facing Philadelphia. In the NFL when good teams play, the team that needs it more usually gets it and the Eagles definitely need this one more. Philadelphia 27, New York 20
3 Unit Play.Take San Francisco 49ers +9 ½ over Arizona Cardinals
Just too many points to be laying in a divisional match-up that has been very competitive in recent years. The visitor has covered five times in the last seven meetings (1 tie) and Arizona will be looking ahead to Seattle, a team they face next weekend. The Cardinals put forth a workman’s like effort that is good enough for the victory but not the cover. Arizona 27, San Francisco 21
Erin Rynning
Playmaker Falcons
Regular Texans
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NFL EARLY RELEASE
PHILADELPHIA-2.5
Spylock
5 units Bears
BEN BURNS
NON CONFERENCE PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. The Titans have certainly been on an impressive run. However, they finally failed to cover (pushed vs. closing line) last week and this week I expect them to finally suffer their first loss. Last week's game was very physically exhausting and not just because it went to overtime. It was hard-hitting the entire way and both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Keith Bulluck left the game due to injury. Both players are very important to this team. Both missed practice on Friday and both are currently questionable. Regardless of whether Vanden Bosch and/or Bulluck in the lineup and regardless of who starts at QB for the Bears, I expect a huge effort from Chicago. This team has quietly been playing at a very high level, particularly here at home. The Bears have averaged greater than 30 points at home on the season. They've won three straight here and five of their last six here, dating back to last season. (The lone loss during that stretch came by a field goal.) While much of the Bears' success has had to do with Orton, should Grossman start, I expect him to play with a real chip on his shoulder and to effectively lead the offense. Note that Grossman came off the bench last week and helped lead the Bears to a comeback win over the Lions. Look for the Bears, 11-3 the last 14 times they were coming off a divisional game, to carry positive momentum from that comeback into this afternoon's game, handing the Titans their first loss of the season. *Non Conference Personal Favorite
AFC GAME OF THE MONTH
I'm playing on HOUSTON. The Texans opened as a small favorite but are now a small underdog. While I understand that's got a lot to do with Schaub being out, I believe that move is a mistake. Rosenfels is fully capable. Other than his couple of memorable fumbles, Rosenfels was great in his last start against Indianapolis. Houston receiver Kevin Walter had this to say of Rosenfels: "He played a great game against Indy, except the last three minutes we didn't execute and we turned the ball over. He played a great game and we know he's capable of playing great games. We're going to rally around him." It should also be noted that Rosenfels was 4-1 as a starter last season. Additionally, note that Rosenfels was 21-for-29 with a pair of touchdowns in relief last week. While the Texans are playing in the comforts of their own stadium, the Ravens are in the middle of a very difficult scheduling spot. This is their second straight road game and fourth in the past five games. Additionally, they've got a date with the defending Super Bowl Champs on deck. The Texans are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times they were listed as a home underdog of three points or less. They're also 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times they played a home game with an over/under line in the 38.5 to 42 range. During the same stretch, the Ravens were 0-6 ATS when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Look for the Texans to "rally around Rosenfels" and come away with the victory. *AFC GOM
NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH
I'm playing on the Vikings and Packers to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Packers to finish UNDER the total last week and they were involved in a defensive battle with the Titans. While the Minnesota defense admittedly isn't as good as the Tennessee defense, I do feel that the Vikings are better on that side of the ball than most think and I expect them to deliver a solid effort on that side of the ball this week. Note that while the Vikings have struggled defensively on the road, they've been great at shutting down opponents at home. In four games here, they've limited opponents to an average of only 14.7 points and 287.5 yards. While last week's game did finish above the total, the UNDER is still 3-1 in the four games here. The Packers come in allowing 22.2 points per game and 22.7 on the road. Opponents are managingly only 290 yards in those road games. Note that the Packers are allowing only 16.3 points their past three games. These teams played back in September and the total was 37.5. This week's number is much higher, giving us excellent value. That game, which finished with 43 combined points, marked the seventh straight meeting in this series which produced 43 points or less. Those seven games averaged only 36 points. With the Vikings listed as small favorites, it's also worth noting that the UNDER is a highly profitable 16-3 the last 19 times that the Vikings were listed as home favorites of three points or less. Look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than most are expecting once again. *NFC TOM
NFL SHOCKER OF THE MONTH
I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. Not many people are going to want to back the Raiders here, as they were shutout by Atlanta last week. I believe that there has been an over- reaction to that result though and that the Raiders now offer us plenty of value. Keep in mind that prior to the Atlanta loss, the Raiders had played quite well in each of their previous two home games. In those games, they defeated the Jets outright and nearly beat San Diego, blowing that victory in the final minutes. Back to my point about line-value, the Chargers were laying 7.5 points for that game. Carolina is a solid team which has played well. Yet, the Panthers are still arguably not as powerful or explosive (at least on offense) as the Chargers. Additionally, the Panthers are also traveling from the East Coast, something the Chargers didn't have to do. Yet, Carolina is laying a bigger number than San Diego (or any other opponent) has laid here yet. While the Panthers do have the advantage of a bye week (note that they're just 6-9 SU the last 15 off a bye) they've really struggled on the road. They've gone 1-2 in three road games with the lone victory coming by just two points. Overall, they were outscored an average score of 23.7 to 13 in those games. It's also worth noting that the Panthers are just 1-4-2 ATS (2-5 SU) the last seven times they were coming off consecutive victories. They've been in that situation twice this season and they went 0-2 SU/ATS in the third game, getting outscored by a combined 47-13 margin. Look for the Raiders to bounce back with a much better effort, improving to 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs of greater than eight points. *SHOCKER
Larry Ness
25* Patriots
Two Minute Warning
Best Bets
Investor
Baltimore -1
Detroit +6 1/2
Seattle +9
Minnesota -2 1/2
Oakland +9 1/2
Kansas City +15
Philadelphia -3
Coach Ron Meyer
NFC GOY Falcons