Regarding the Ace-Ace plays on your third post Blade:
Are these Allan Eastman's plays?
Thanks, 8)
YES.
Vegas Joey
TOP Miami
REG NY Giants
REG Arizona/Over
REG Houston
Oppinion Houston/Baltimore Over
ADVANTAGE SPORTS
All TOP Plays
Jacksonville/Over
New England
San Diego
Baltimore
Frank Patron
30K
Jacksonville
Kelso
50 unit pick for Sunday
50 Units Saints (+1) over Falcons
Strike Point Sports
4 Units Tennessee -3
3 Units Baltimore pk
3 Units Seattle/Miami Under 43
Bob Balfe
Jaguars/Lions Under 43.5
The Lions come into this game with a new QB starting in Dante Culpepper. The problem for Culpepper is he doesn't have the slightest clue on the playbook and to make matters worst the Lions will have a new Center starting. This offense will have trouble just getting the ball off. The Jaguars have a lot of size on offense, but are not used to playing in domes and the Lions defense has more experienced in every matchup. Look for both teams to struggle to score. Take the Under.
Chargers -15 over Chiefs
San Diego has more talent in every position and are looking to pound on someone after a slow start to the season. Kansas City will not have a running game today with Johnson out. Look for San Diego to score early and often and to never look back. Kansas City is a young struggling defense and might be without some key starters today. San Diego should win in a landslide.
Giants/Eagles Over 43
This will be a great Sunday Night Game. This could decide who will end up taking the NFC East. The Giants have a physical mismatch on offense and should score a lot tonight. Philly has a healthy McNabb who would love nothing more than to get revenge from last years game in New York where he was sacked almost ten times. The Eagles are getting all of their pieces back on offense and should score a lot themselves. Look for both teams to score enough to take this over the total.
Houston +1 over Baltimore
The Ravens are banged up bigtime in their secondary. Houston has a ton of weapons on offense at home today. The Ravens have a young QB who will struggle on the road with not too many offensive weapons. McGahee is still a bit banged up for the Ravens and I do not see this unit scoring much today. Look for Houston to get a big home win.
NBA Basketball
Pistons -2 over Celtics
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive- Sunday
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -3
The City of Brotherly Love will be the site of Sunday nights featured NFL game on NBC. The Philadelphia Eagles will host their Conference rival the New York Giants. Both Teams enter this contest off a win as the Eagles dismantled the Seahawks in Seattle last week and the Giants did the same to the Dallas Cowboys at home.
Philadelphia checks in with a 5-3 SU record on the season while the Giants lead the way with a 7-1 SU record.
A road win over a surging Eagles squad on Sunday night would further eliminate any doubt that the Giants go into the second half of the season as the favorites to get back to the Super Bowl.
Many already consider New York to be the favorite, being the defending champion and having the best record in the NFC. However, the Giants have played a relatively easy schedule - the eight teams they've faced have a 27-40 combined record.
Granted, New York dominated Dallas last Sunday in a 35-14 home win, but that came against a slumping Cowboys team missing star quarterback Tony Romo. Starting with this matchup against the NFC East rival Eagles, who have won three straight, not one of the Giants' final eight opponents currently has a sub-.500 record.
For the Giants to be successful on Sunday night they will need a big game out of QB Eli Manning. He has been struggling of late and reverting back to his old habits that at one time questioned his future as a Giant.
The Eagles are second in the NFC with 27 sacks and will look to keep the pressure on Manning after he succumbed to it last week. The Super Bowl MVP lost two fumbles, was sacked four times, had an interception returned for a touchdown and threw for a season-low 147 yards against Dallas.
Manning has a 78.5 quarterback rating over the past four weeks, failing to throw for 200 yards once. He was averaging 258.0 through the first four games while posting a 102.2 rating.
This is a tough spot for the Giants as they are coming off that emotional but satisfying win over Dallas last Sunday and the week before they had a tough game against the Steelers
The Eagles on the other hand had their bye three weeks ago then faced Atlanta at home and then won big at Seattle last week. This game sets up well for the Eagles on Sunday night.
Eagles QB Donovan McNabb has his full arsenal of weapons with Brian Westbrook and wide-outs Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown who will be joining rookie sensation DeSean Jackson. McNabb is having an outstanding season, he is on pace to throw for over 4300 yards this season.
The Eagles have quietly won eight of their last eleven games and are traditionally strongest during the months of November and December under HC Andy Reid. In fact the Eagles are 48-20 during those two months dating back to 2001, which is the second best winning percentage in the NFL during that span.
The Eagles need this win to keep pace with the Giants in the toughest division in football.
The Eagles defense is in the Top Ten in the league and has only allowed two opponents to rush for more than 90 yards in a game. This is a key factor in this contest as the Giants rely on their rushing attack to make up for Eli’s struggles at the QB position. This will be the difference in tonight’s game.
We have three technical systems that are active for tonight’s contest. The first one tells us to Play AGAINST NFL Teams with an OHPA that is higher than their opponents and a Pass Defense Rating >=0 in their last three games. This system is 282-159 ATS and 20-6 ATS the last 26 times it was active. We should also Play AGAINST NFL Favs (or Dogs of =1 point higher than their season to date PDE and that have a season Turn-Over Differential of >0.5. This tech system is 60-15 ATS since 2004.
Finally we have two Power Systems that are also active for tonight’s game. From Game 9 on, Play AGAINST a 1-loss road underdog of 3-11½ points with a TOTAL of 32½-46 points not off a SU win of 32+ points in its last game, 13-0-1 ATS since 1987 and averages covering the spread by 12.4 points per game. In Weeks 2-12, play AGAINST a non-Monday team (not an underdog of more than 7 points) off a division SU win against a .500%+ foe last week vs. an opponent before a +.500% opponent next week, 17-0-1 ATS since 2004 and averages covering the spread by 12.7 points per game.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Philadelphia Eagles -3
Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders
Prediction: 4* Carolina Panthers -9.5
The Carolina Panthers head west to face the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers are coming off their bye week and the Raiders are just “showing up” again on Sunday afternoon.
Carolina (6-2) headed into last week's bye after posting consecutive home victories, most recently rallying from a two-touchdown deficit for a 27-23 win over Arizona on Oct. 26.
The NFC South-leading Panthers return from their week off with the second-best record in the conference behind the New York Giants, who are 7-1.
Fox's team has held opponents to 15.9 points per game, but opens the second half following one of its worst defensive performances. The Panthers have allowed an average of 305.6 yards per game, but gave up a season-high 425 to Arizona. They also allowed 375 passing yards - their most since surrendering 396 versus the Cardinals on Oct. 9, 2005.
But Carolina overcame those inefficiencies behind quarterback Jake Delhomme, who went 20-for-28 for 248 yards and two touchdowns - including the go-ahead 65-yard pass to Steve Smith with 2 seconds left in the third quarter.
Carolina and Delhomme will face an Oakland defense which allows 373.9 yards per game to rank 28th in the NFL.
The Raider offense has been no better, with a league-low 13.4 points per contest and an average of 282.6 yards.
Oakland gave up a season-worst 453 yards, and managed just 77 of their own - its fewest in 37 years - in a 24-0 loss to visiting Atlanta on Sunday.
Quarterback JaMarcus Russell went 6-for-19 for 31 yards with an interception and was sacked four times - the worst start of his young career.
The Raiders fall into the category of “Towel Tossers”; these are teams that have given up on the season. They recently fired their head coach, their owner lost his mind years ago and they let a high priced player go this past week in DeAngelo Hall. A team in turmoil would be the kind way to reference this Raiders team.
NFL Teams are 55-29 ATS as a favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 10-0 ATS as a road favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 0-10 ATS as a home dog when their opponent is off their bye. The Raiders are 0-19-1 ATS when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Raiders are 1-12 ATS at home when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Raiders are 0-11 ATS as a dog when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS as a dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points at home.
Finally we have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s match up. Play ON a road favorite with a TOTAL of 34+ points off a BYE and a favorite SU win of 4+ points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 25+ points in its last game, 19-0 ATS since 1999 and has averaged covering the spread by 14.2 points per game. In Games 2-14, play AGAINST a home team off gaining less than 122 yards in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 25+ points or a Monday division home favorite SU loss in its last game, 20-0 ATS since 1992 and averages covering the spread by 10.6 points per game.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Panthers in a positive situation that states to Play ON teams after Week 6 with a SU Win % >=0.500, coming off a bye week, preceded by a game in which they were favored and their current opponent has a below average ROF/POF in their last three games, 56-14 ATS since 1994 and a perfect 2-0 ATS this year!
We will back the visitor here as the “Towel Tossing” Raiders just show up and the Panthers are fighting for a conference championship.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Carolina Panthers -9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Prediction: 4* Detroit Lions +6.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars take to the road again this week as they travel to the Motor City to face the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. The Jags were also on the road last week facing a winless Cincinnati team and came away with a loss.
The Lions are hoping to repeat that performance on Sunday as they attempt to capture their first win of the season against the struggling Jaguars. It’s possible we may see newly acquired Daunte Culpepper at quarterback for the Lions as their current starter Dan Orlovsky sprained his right thumb in last week’s loss to Chicago.
It was another heartbreaking loss for the Lions, as they've had opportunities to win their last four games after getting blown out in their first four. The four most recent defeats have come by an average of 5.3 points after they dropped their first four by an average of 27.0.
The Jaguars have also been involved in close contests, as they're the only team in the league that has had all of its games decided by seven points or fewer this season.
Jags QB David Garrard has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He has thrown for 1771 yards and averages 202.6 yards per game with a 64.6 completion percentage this year.
Jacksonville failed to get its ground game going Sunday, as Jones-Drew was limited to 33 yards on 10 carries against Cincinnati. The running game has been key for the Jaguars, as they are averaging 176.7 rushing yards in their wins, but 70.0 rushing yards in their losses.
Detroit even though they are winless has continued to put forth the effort over their last four games and we see this game being no different. The Jags are struggling and the Lions are searching for their first win of the season and could possibly get that win today.
Our Technical Situational Report shows Detroit in a positive situation on Sunday. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a Rush Yardage Advantage of >20, facing an opponent with a Rushing Situation Rating <0.5, 95-32 ATS since 1994 and 9-2 ATS this season. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a Season Spread Average that is higher than their current spread and had 20 or more Total Plays For versus Against in their last game, 141-69 ATS since 1994 and 5-1 ATS this season. Play ON NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU losses with a Season Starting Field Position FOR average <29, 128-63 ATS since 1994 and 10-4 ATS this season.
With strong technical and situational support for the host we will back the Detroit Lions over the Jacksonville Jaguars as a 4* NFL Best Bet on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Detroit Lions +6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
Prediction: 4* Jacksonville / Detroit Over 43
The Jacksonville Jaguars take to the road again this week as they travel to the Motor City to face the winless Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon. The Jags were also on the road last week facing a winless Cincinnati team and came away with a loss.
The Lions are hoping to repeat that performance on Sunday as they attempt to capture their first win of the season against the struggling Jaguars. It’s possible we may see newly acquired Daunte Culpepper at quarterback for the Lions as their current starter Dan Orlovsky sprained his right thumb in last week’s loss to Chicago.
Culpepper had career highs in passing yards (4,717), touchdowns (39) and passer rating (110.9) in 2004 with Minnesota, but a knee injury the following year ended his career with the Vikings. The 6-foot-4, 265-pound Culpepper started 10 games over the 2006-07 seasons with Oakland and Miami, throwing seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Culpepper threw for 235 yards; one touchdown and one interception in his only career start against Jacksonville on Nov. 28, 2004, a 27-16 Minnesota victory.
Jags QB David Garrard has thrown 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He has thrown for 1771 yards and averages 202.6 yards per game with a 64.6 completion percentage this year. The Lions pass defense ranks 29th in the league allowing 247.1 yards passing per game.
Jacksonville failed to get its ground game going Sunday, as Jones-Drew was limited to 33 yards on 10 carries against Cincinnati. The running game has been key for the Jaguars, as they are averaging 176.7 rushing yards in their wins, but 70.0 rushing yards in their losses.
Their rushing problem should disappear today as they face a Lions defense that ranks 31st in the league against the run, allowing 161.8 yards per game. This should translate into scores for the Jaguars on Sunday.
The Jacksonville defense is not what it used to be as they are allowing 21.5 points per game which ranks 14th in the league. In fact they allow more yards per game, 335.2 (ranks 23rd) than their own offense averages with just 312 yards per game.
The Jags defense ranks 21st in the league in passing yards allowed with 220.9 and ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game with 114.4 yards per game. These stats may well be their demise not only on Sunday but for the season as they are struggling to make the playoffs.
The Lions defense is the worst overall in the league allowing over 400 yards of total offense per game this season and they are also the worst scoring defense in the league allowing an unbelievable 30 points per game on the year.
Two defenses that combine to allow over 51 points per game and currently seeing 44 and 44.5 across the board means we are getting solid line value on the Total in this game.
Technical support for our selection on the “Over” in this contest comes from both teams. The Jaguars are 12-1 Over as a favorite after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 17-3 Over after playing on the road. The League is 10-4 Over on the road the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 15-4-1 Over since October 28, 2007. The Jaguars are 9-0 Over as a favorite versus any team with fewer wins after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 10-2 Over as a road favorite before playing at home in each of the next two weeks.
The Lions are 10-2-1 Over at home the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 8-1-1 Over at home the week after on the road in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 12-4 Over after a straight up loss as a dog.
Data base research has uncovered several strong technical systems that are active for today’ game. NFL Teams are 26-9 Over on the road when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. NFL Teams are 40-23-2 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. NFL Teams are 15-4-1 Over since October 28, 2007 versus the Jaguars.
NFL Teams are 66-38-5 Over at home after playing as a dog. NFL Teams are 42-35-2 Over at home between away games. NFL Teams are 20-4 Over as a home dog after a loss as a TD+ dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (Detroit). NFL Teams are 18-4 Over as a home dog after a loss on the road as a TD+ dog in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (Detroit). NFL Teams are 21-8-1 Over at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL Teams are 9-1 Over as a home dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.
The combination of strong technical support including both angles and systems and the strong fundamentals makes this our 4* NFL Total Game of the Week for Week 10 of the NFL season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Jacksonville / Detroit OVER 43
Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: 3* New Orleans / Atlanta Over 50
The Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their surprising play when they face-off against NFC South division rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday in the Georgia Dome. Although the Falcons are 5-3 SU on the year they have played a soft schedule to this point with wins over the likes of Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland, teams that are a combined 3-21 halfway through the season and now the games get a little tougher down the stretch.
New Orleans is 4-4 so far this year and entered the season expecting to compete for the division title, but a series of injuries at the skill positions contributed to the Saints' slow start and their fall to last place in the South.
Top receiver Marques Colston missed five games with a thumb injury, tight end Jeremy Shockey missed three following sports hernia surgery and still isn't 100 percent and running back Deuce McAllister was slowed early in the season while recovering from knee surgery.
Each of those players is expected to be on the field Sunday, but the Saints will still be without star running back Reggie Bush, who had arthroscopic surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee in October. They'll also likely be missing No. 2 receiver David Patten, out since September with a groin injury.
The Saints struggled defensively in their last outing, but the NFL's most prolific offense with 403.1 total yards per game compiled 409 in a 37-32 win over San Diego in London on Oct. 26. Brees was 30-for-41 for 339 yards and three TDs.
Today’s game features the Number 1 team in Total Offense with 403.1 yards per game by the Saints. The Saints led by QB Drew Brees is also the Number 1 team in Passing Yards per game with 314.4. The Falcons offense ranks 7th in the league in Total Offense per game and 1st in the league with 163.7 yards rushing per game.
Two of the league’s top offenses square-off against two of the league’s worst defensive units. The Falcons rank 16th in total yards allowed which includes 205 yards per game passing and 22nd in the league with 119.9 yards rushing per game allowed.
The Saints check in with a defense that is ranked 24th in the league allowing 346.4 yards per game of total offense. This includes 237.2 yards passing per game and 109.1 yards rushing per contest. Not good news for “Under” players in this game.
Technical support for this game comes from both squads. The Falcons are 6-0 Over as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Falcons are 8-1 Over at home after playing as a favorite. The Falcons are 11-3 Over at home when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Falcons are 5-0 Over within 3 of pick at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.
The Saints are 40-19-2 Over their last 61 games versus a team with a winning record. The Saints are 10-2-1 Over their last 13 games overall. The Saints are 6-1-1 Over their last 8 games after scoring 30+ points in their last game. The Saints are 8-1 Over off a SU win. The Saints are 8-1-1 Over their last 10 versus the NFC. The Saints are 9-1-1 Over their last 11 games on field turf. The Saints are 25-9-2 Over their last 36 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Data base research has uncovered several active technical systems for today’s match up between the Saints and Falcons. NFL Teams are 35-17 Over as a dog when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL Teams are 13-5 Over within 3 of pick on the road when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL Teams are 35-23 Over on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
NFL Teams are 28-8 Over as a home favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. NFL Teams are 30-10 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. NFL Teams are 17-3-1 Over the week after on the road when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The League is 13-4 Over within 3 of pick at home when they covered by 10+ points last week. NFL Teams are 19-4 Over at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road as a favorite.
With strong technical, fundamental and situational support for our selection on the “Over” in this contest we will make it our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day for Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* New Orleans / Atlanta Over 50
igz1 sports
NFL
4* Over 42 (-110) Baltimore vs Houston
4* Tennessee -3 (+100)
3* Under 37.5 (-110) Carolina vs Oakland
3* New Orleans +1.5 (-110)
3* Over 43.5 (-110) St Louis vs New York-A
SIXTH SENSE
Jacksonville –6.5 DETROIT 44
Jacksonville’s season continued to take another step in the wrong direction last week losing at winless Cincinnati. They were out gained 5.0yppl to 4.5yppl, including allowing Cincinnati to rush for 159 yards at 5.5ypr. Detroit jumped out to a lead on Chicago but couldn’t hold on, losing by four points, 23-27. They were out gained 5.0yppl to 4.4yppl, including rushing for just 2.0ypr and allowing 5.1ypr. They did throw for 5.7yps, which is an improvement for them. Dan Orlovsky will not start and it’s very possible newcomer Duante Culpepper will start. Jacksonville averages 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl and is allowing 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. Detroit is averaging just 5.3yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Their defense is even worse than Jacksonville’s, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.9yps against 6.3yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Jacksonville by just one point and predict about 44 points. I think the game will be higher scoring than that but the numbers don’t show that and with Culpepper possibly starting it’s hard to tell what we will get out of Detroit. JACKSONVILLE 27 DETROIT 24
Tennessee –3 CHICAGO 38.5
Tennessee managed another win last week but were out gained again. GB out gained the Titans 5.7yppl to 4.6yppl and out passed them 6.4yps to 4.3yps. They did out rush GB 4.9ypr to 4.3ypr and 178 to 102. Chicago defeated the Lions 27-23 and out gained the Lions 5.0yppl 4.4yppl. The Bears managed only 4.9yps against a horrible Lions secondary. Kyle Orton was hurt and replaced by Rex Grossman who will start this game. The Bears did rush for 5.0ypr and held the Lions to 2.1ypr. Tennessee averages just 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 5.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl. The Bears average just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Chicago allows just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 45 points. If Orton were starting I would lean a little heavier to Chicago but I still like Chicago here against an overrated Titans team. Tennessee has played just one decent team on the road and won by three (with a late touchdown) at Baltimore. Chicago has won all their home games, including defeating a good Philadelphia team. CHICAGO 23 TENNESSEE 20
NEW ENGLAND –4 Buffalo 41.5
I won by going against Buffalo last week as they lost at home to the Jets, 26-21. They were out gained in that game 5.6yppl to 5.1yppl, including getting out rushed 3.8ypr to 1.8ypr. I stayed away from NE last week, unfortunately, but they covered in their loss to Indy. They were out gained in that game 6.0yppl to 5.1yppl, including being out passed 8.8yps to 5.8yps but they did out rush Indy 4.4ypr to 2.2ypr. Buffalo averages just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. NE has played one of the easiest schedules in the league but their numbers from the line of scrimmage are horrible. They average just 5.5yps against 6.7yps and 4.9yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense they are allowing 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. With injuries in the secondary, Buffalo should be able to take advantage of their weak secondary. Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table, which is 388-247-18. Numbers favor Buffalo by one point and predict about 34 points. The NE pass offense is well below average as is their pass defense. Buffalo brings the better offense, defense, has the solid situation in their favor and is getting plenty of value. That makes for a solid dog bet. BUFFALO 20 NEW ENGLAND 16
ATLANTA –1.5 New Orleans 50
The Falcons dominated Oakland last week in their 24-0 win. They out gained Oakland 5.5yppl to 2.3yppl, including allowing Oakland just 0.4yps. They did allow 6.1ypr on the 11 rushing attempts by Oakland. Atlanta gained 4.4ypr and 8.0yps. NO comes off their bye after defeating SD in London the week before. Atlanta averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr and 6.6yps against 6.1yps for 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. NO averages just 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr but 8.1yps against 6.2yps for a total of 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. Atlanta qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 207-123-15. Numbers favor Atlanta by six points and predict about 49 points. NO is the better team from the line of scrimmage but I’ll side with the value and situation. The Saints haven’t won a road game yet this year (SD win was a neutral site) and Atlanta hasn’t lost at home yet although the Bears are the only solid team they have played at home. ATLANTA 27 NEW ORLEANS 24
NY JETS –9 St Louis 44
The Jets did enough last week in defeating Buffalo 26-17 and out gained the Bills 5.6yppl to 5.1yppl. They out rushed Buffalo 3.8ypr to 1.8ypr and out passed them 7.2yps to 6.6yps. The Rams were destroyed by Arizona last week, 34-13. They were out gained 7.5yppl to 4.2yppl, including being out rushed by a poor Arizona rushing offense, 5.4ypr to 3.1ypr. They were also out passed 9.5yps to 4.9yps and when you consider that included a bit of a fluky 80 yard touchdown pass, they really only averaged 2.6yps and 2.8yppl. The Rams have played better since Haslett took over by going 2-2 (or at least it seems that way) but they were badly out gained in the Redskins game, faced an anemic Dallas offense without Romo and weren’t as good against NE as the final score appears. The Rams average 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.6yps against 6.4yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The Jets average 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but average just 6.0yps against 6.7yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. The Rams will also be without Jackson this week. The Jets qualify in a letdown situation, which is 123-60-5 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor the Jets by 14 points and predict about 49 points. I would consider the over in this game but for the same reasons I lost the over last week, the Rams have only scored 20 or more once this year and they can’t be counted on to put enough points on the board, I will avoid the over. NY JETS 30 ST LOUIS 19
MIAMI –8.5 Seattle 43
Miami defeated a banged up Denver team last week 26-17 but were out gained 5.4yppl to 4.7yppl. They did hold Denver to just 1.2ypr but averaged just 2.6ypr against a poor Denver rush defense. Seattle was destroyed by a good Philadelphia team, 26-7 and out gained 5.8yppl to 4.2yppl. They were out passed 7.9yps to 4.5yps. Seattle averages 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr but just 4.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 7.0yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. The Dolphins offense has been surprisingly good averaging 7.4yps against 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Miami qualifies in a let down situation, which is 123-60-5 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Miami by eight points and predict about 37 points. Seattle has lost every game this year by 10 or more except their games against SF and the Rams. This is a lot of points for Miami to be laying so I will lean to Seattle but it is a weak lean. MIAMI 23 SEATTLE 16
MINNESOTA –2.5 Green Bay 44.5
GB lost at Tennessee last week but played a good game in their loss. They out gained the Titans 5.7yppl to 4.6yppl, including out passing the Titans 6.4yps to 4.3yps but they were out rushed 178-102 and 4.9ypr to 4.3ypr. Minnesota jumped out on Houston and never looked back in their 28-21 victory. They out gained the Texans 6.2yps to 5.9yps, including 8.0yps to 5.5yps and 5.1ypr to 3.9ypr. The yards per play were only close because Houston threw the ball 50 times to just 18 for Minnesota to skew the final numbers. GB averages just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr but 6.6yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.2yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. The Vikings rush offense has not been as good as it was last year. They average just 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl but they should get healthy against a porous Packer rush defense. The Vikings allow just 3.0ypr against 3.8ypr and 6.4yps against 6.6yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The Vikings qualify in a scheduling situation, which is 65-25-2. They also qualify in rushing situations, which are 657-528-42, including a subset, which is 527-399-30. They also qualify in another rushing situation, which is 282-193-21. Numbers favor Minnesota by 3.5 points and predict about 49 points. I’ll trust the numbers to lean towards the over but both teams bring pretty good defenses and the last three played here between these two have totaled 43 or less. Good value on Minnesota with supporting situations at a short price make this worth a shot. MINNESOTA 27 GREEN BAY 20
Carolina –9.5 OAKLAND 37.5
Carolina comes off their bye week after defeating Arizona with a come from behind win before the bye. Oakland was destroyed by Atlanta last week. They were out gained 5.5yppl to 2.3yppl, including passing for just 0.4yps and allowing Atlanta to throw for 8.0yps. They did rush for 6.1ypr but on just 11 attempts. Carolina averages just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.1yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.5yps against 6.6yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. Oakland averages just 4.9yps against 6.3yps and 4.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They are allowing 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Carolina by 7.5 points and predict about 27 points. It appears Russell won’t start this game for Oakland, which probably means Walter will start. I can’t see their passing game getting any better with Walter at quarterback. CAROLINA 20 OAKLAND 7
SAN DIEGO –15.5 Kansas City 47.5
SD comes off their bye week after losing to NO (London) the week before the bye week. KC comes off a tough home loss to TB last week after leading for the majority of that game. KC and TB both gained 6.1yppl last week. While KC allowed TB to average 7.8yps what was most impressive is they rushed for 5.1ypr and held TB to just 3.2ypr and even more importantly passed for 7.4yps. This comes a week after averaging 6.4yps at the Jets. Their passing game may be finally improving. KC averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 4.7yps against 6.1yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Their offense does seem to be improving so those numbers may be better than that. On defense they have struggled. They allow 5.4ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.4yps against 6.1yps and 6.4yppl against 5.3yppl. SD averages 8.1yps against 6.5yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. SD qualifies in a negative situation, which is 83-39-4 and plays against them here. Numbers favor SD by just 11 points and predict about 55 points. KC hasn’t lost by more than 11 points in the last 10 trips to SD. I will lean towards KC and the over in this game. SAN DIEGO 34 KANSAS CITY 21
PITTSBURGH NL Indianapolis
I took Pittsburgh two weeks ago against the Giants and lost. Last week I went against the Steelers and lost. I will try it again this week but looking to bet on them. They defeated the Redskins last week 23-6 and were pretty impressive in doing so. They out gained Washington 3.8yppl to 3.4yppl, out passing Washington 5.3yps to 3.2yps. Their offense didn’t do much and if it weren’t for a couple of long passing plays, their numbers would have been much worse. But, their defense was spectacular. This week they get Indy who defeated NE 18-15 and out gained NE 6.0yppl to 5.1yppl. Indy was out rushed 4.4ypr to 2.2ypr but out passed NE 8.8yps to 5.8yps. Indy is overrated as they average just 3.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl so their defense is better than most think and they are healthier than they have been. Pittsburgh has been below average on offense gaining just 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl but their defense has been solid. They allow just 2.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.2yps against 5.9yps and 3.7yppl against 5.1yppl. Pittsburgh qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 657-528-42, including a subset, which is 527-399-30. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by six points and predict about 36 points. There isn’t a line on this game yet but I am expecting something around three points. The Steelers are just too physical for Indy and should be able to run the ball. With Indy unable to rush the ball, Pittsburgh should be able to stop their passing game as well. Indy has struggled against the 3-4 defenses, especially when they can get physical and put pressure on Peyton Manning. Value, situations and fundamentals at a short price make Pittsburgh attractive. Indy has played four road games this year. They came from behind to defeat Minnesota after being behind by 15 points. Minnesota couldn’t put the ball in the endzone and settled for field goals. They came from way behind against Houston and were blown out by Green Bay and lost by ten at Tennessee. PITTSBURGH 24 INDIANAPOLIS 13
PHILADELPHIA –3 NY Giants 43
The Giants dominated a hapless Cowboy team last week in their 35-14 win. They out gained Dallas 4.9yppl to 3.3yppl, including rushing for 5.9ypr. They only passed for 3.8ypr against an average Dallas pass defense. Philly dominated Seattle on the road in their 26-7 win. They out gained the Seahawks 5.8yppl to 4.2yppl, including passing for 7.9yps to just 4.5yps for Seattle. When you consider Seattle hit on a 90 yard pass early in the game, their numbers are just 2.6yppl and 1.8yps. The Giants average 5.2ypr against 4.0ypr and 6.4yps against 6.1yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 4.6yppl against 4.9yppl. Philly averages 3.9ypr against 3.9ypr (which is an improvement over earlier in the year), 7.0yps against 5.9yps and 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Their defense allows just 3.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Philly qualifies in a couple of momentum situations, which are 32-11-4 and 79-34-6. Numbers only favor Philly by one point before the situation and predict about 48 points. Short number for Philly with some good situations in their favor. I don’t expect this game to be easy but this is a good spot for them. PHILADELPHIA 30 NY GIANTS 20
Baltimore –1 HOUSTON 42
Ravens are starting to get on a roll as they have won three in a row. They defeated Cleveland last week 37-27 and out gained Cleveland 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl, including out rushing them 193-64 and 4.7ypr to 2.8ypr and out passing them 7.6yps to 6.2yps. When Baltimore is out passing Cleveland that tells you Cleveland either has a terrible defense and/or Baltimore is starting to play better on offense. I think it’s a little of both. Houston lost at Minnesota, 21-28 and were out gained 6.2yppl to 5.9yppl. They were out passed 8.0yps to 6.5yps and out rushed 5.1ypr to 3.9ypr. Those numbers are a little skewed because Houston passed 50 times to just 18 times for Minnesota. Interesting back in week two when these teams were supposed to play Houston was originally listed as a five point favorite. Baltimore averages 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl and is allowing just 2.8ypr against 3.8ypr and 4.4yppl against 4.6yppl. Houston is averaging 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. Unfortunately they allow 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Baltimore has lost only one game by more than three points this year so they figure to stay in this game. With their ability to run the ball and a much better defense, they stand a good chance to win this game. I have situations going both ways in this game. Numbers favor Baltimore by three points and predict about 53 points. The total is fairly low in this game and knowing Houston has scored at least 27 points in every home game this year and Baltimore has allowed at least 27 points in their two road games against good passing teams gives this game a good chance to go over the total. But Baltimore has also scored at least 27 points in all their games against poor defenses. BALTIMORE 30 HOUSTON 23
ARIZONA –9.5 San Francisco 46
Arizona dominated St. Louis last week in their 34-13 win. They out gained the Rams 7.5yppl to 4.2yppl. Those numbers include out passing the Rams 9.5yps to 4.9yps and when you take away the 80 yard fluky touchdown pass for the Rams their passing numbers are just 2.6yps. SF is off their bye week after losing at home to Seattle. They out gained Seattle in that game and Shaun Hill came in to play quarterback and looked pretty decent and will get the start here. SF averages 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr but just 6.0yps against 6.6yps although I expect those numbers to get better with Hill. Overall they average 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Arizona rushed for 177 yards at 5.4ypr last week, which is great considering they have not rushed the ball well this year. Do this against the Rams isn’t quite as impressive as it might be against the Ravens but it was still a nice improvement. Part of that reason is they have gone to Tim Hightower to rush the ball for them, replacing E. James. Arizona averages 7.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. SF qualifies in my turnover table, which is 388-247-18. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 657-528-42, including a subset, which is 527-399-30. Numbers favor Arizona by 10.5 points and predict about 56 points. SF hasn’t lost by more than seven points here over the last six years. They won last years game here 37-31. In fact they have totaled at least 59 points in each of the last three games played here. In 2005 they played the game in Mexico. SF has totaled at least 46 points in each of their road games this year and allowed 29 or more in all but two of their games. Arizona has scored at least 30 points in each of their three home games this year. They defeated the 49ers by 10 in the first game of the season but were out gained in that game 6.8yppl to 4.3yppl. Five 49er turnovers did them in. I will only lean towards the 49ers in this game but I do like the over based on value and past history not only in both teams games this year but in this series history played here. ARIZONA 34 SAN FRANCISCO 26
BEST BETS
YTD 32-15-1 +46.50%
3% DENVER +3
3% BUFFALO +4
3% MINNESOTA –2.5
3% PITTSBURGH NL
3% PHILADELPHIA –3
3% ARIZONA/SAN FRANICSCO OVER 46
Oscarxena Sports
New Orleans +1 (3 Unit Play)
Carolina/Oakland Over 37 1/2 (3 Unit Play)
Seabass
300 Eagles
Dave Malinsky
5* Pittsburgh
4* St Lou/NYJ Under
4* Seat/Miami Under
4* NYG/Phily Under
Wunderdog
5* GB (NFL GOY)
4* Buf
4* Hou
4* Oak
3* Under Atl
3* Under SD