Northcoast
4* Falcons
3* Bucs
3* Titans
Phil Steele
4* Atlanta
3* Pittsburgh
3* Tampa Bay
Howie Feiner
100 DIME Rivalry Game of the Week
GREEN BAY (-3') 100 Dimes
100 DIME AFC Game of the Week
SAN DIEGO (+5) 100 Dimes
GOLD SHEET
TOP - TAMPA
Denver
GB/Chicago over
San Francisco
Advantage Sports
Oakland Raiders +10.5 or more
Jacksonville Jaguars +3
Cincinnati Bengals +10
Detroit Lions +14.5 or more
Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 42
I will offer a general paragraph with regard to these large dog plays with a few things that apply to each game. Let me begin with the fact that double digit underdogs are cashing at a rate of 12-1-1 or 13-1 to the number this year depending on the line, with several straight up wins among them. The NFL has little margin between the best and worst so these huge numbers can be covered or even beaten outright when the breaks go the way of the big dog. The pressure weighs heavy on large favorites, particularly when faced with a soft spot in the schedule (in between division games or look-ahead situations) or when on the road facing a desperate squad at home. We learned that first hand with the Chargers last week and most of you know what happened when we took the Rams against the Redskins on the road. In the case of our first game listed, the Dolphins nearly lost at home laying doubles to Seattle last week and now do it again against the Raiders... this being the same Dolphins that won a single game last season and now have division-rival New England on deck. We know what is going on with Al Davis and his puppeteer raiders, but this is a bad scheduling spot for Miami and even with a two score lead, th backdoor is always open when getting doubles. I realize that teams going west to east for early games have been a losing proposition this year, but Miami will struggle to gain enough of a margin that insures a cover. Darren McFadden is expected to play and I look for a low scoring game, which helps a double digit dog. Miami has been favored twice this year and lost both games. Oakland actually beat Miami on this field last year as a four point dog and now gets an additional touchdown margin. The Dolphins are 2-17 ATS as a home favorite of more han a TD off a straight up win, and the dog in Miami games is on a 7-0 run by 99 points. Oakland made a better QB look bad last week and should hang in here.Dolphins 17, Raiders 12.
I will take Jacksonville here as a home dog. Jack del Rio has made a huge statement by downgrading and deactivating his best linebacker and defensive captain for insubordination, particularly painful in a contract year for Mike Peterson. The Jags have underachieved this year, but I expected that due to defections on the defensive and offensive lines to free agency and injury. Tennessee is undefeated, has a win already over the Jags and is beginning to leak oil in the game stats and injury department. If Kyle Vanden Bosch can not go, that is a more painful loss than many may think. The Jags are playing for their post season lives here, and coach del Rio is a lifetime 7-0 as a underdog with revenge. While a trend, it speaks to his ability to gameplan and motivate in a tough spot. Last time these teams met (Week One), Vince Young and his dual threat ability forced the Jags to look at several schemes. Now they face a stationary QB whose numbers have been underwhelming, to say the least and did not have a 200 yard passing game until facing the soft Bears secondary last week. Having two months between games, the Jacksonville offensive and defensive lines have had a little time to gel, gain some understanding of playing together and now they can come with a huge effort. The Jags gathered seven sacks last game, and now can tee off on a statue at quarterback who will make bad decisions under pressure, especially on the road. The Jags extend their 15-6-1 ATS record as an underdog today, and the dog is 7-1 in all Jag games this year. The past three tough games for the Titans finally catch up to them here.Jaguars 23, Titans 16.
Sometimes, you have to look deeper into the game than just the players on the field. here we have just such a scenario with the Bengals, as their first year defensive coordinator is none other than Mike Zimmer, former twelve year employee of the Dallas Cowboys. With Zimmer at the helm of the defense, Cincy has played very tough against the NFC East teams they have on this year's schedule. The Bungles took the G-Men to OT in the Meadowlands and nearly beat Dallas as a 16.5 point dog in Texas. Now they get Philly, at home, off a tough division loss for the Eagles and now playing a non-conference game away from Lincoln Financial. Bengal QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has shown some steady improvement in the offense and should do enough to keep his defense off the field. I suspect that Philly is looking kore toward Baltimore next week and the balance of the division schedule than this roadie against a team they perceive as a pushover. They will reveal nothing and keep the starters from risking serious injury. Zimmer will tune up his defense to attack the Eagles weaknesses that he has learned with 12 years in that division, and this game comes down to the end. Philly has only this game against a team with a negative win percentage over the recent five week stretch, so a flat spot is certainly to be expected. Motivation off a home win over Jacksonville may fuel the upset, especially coming off a bye week to rest and look forward with some hope. The Eagles have shown some cracks defensively, allowing over 400 yards to the Giants in an important division game last time out. Philly has been poor in this spot, only two of twelve as a favorite against an AFC team that comes off a win. Mike Zimmer and his NFC experience bring home the bacon.Eagles 20, Bengals 15.
I know, another stinker team in a "hold your nose" game. maybe our luck runs out with these huge dogs soon, but until I see some more consistency from a terrible home favorite like Carolina, I can not back them to cover doubles against anyone, even the Lions. Last time out, Jake delhomme was completing almost as many passes to the Raiders as he did to his own team. Now they lay doubles to the Lions, who have not covered at home but do much better away from the stench of Detroit. Daunte Culpepper has had another week to get comfortable with the Lion offense and should show a little improvement, but I have little expectation that he will do much other than manage a game against a tough defense. The thing is that Carolina can be beaten with the pass, and Calvin johnson has huge advantages against the Panther secondary. Culpepper looked for him deep several times last week, and we should expect more of the same. Detroit has been on a visitor run of 6-0 to the number, meaning that they do better away from the home faithless. The Lions, as bad as they are and with a QB situation that you wouldn't want, still have succeeded in the large dog role all year, meaning that public perception of them may be a bit skewed. Can they win this? Doubtful, but taking doubles from one of the worst favorites in the NFL in the John Fox regime is still worth a shot. Carolina is still missing personnel on the OL with Ryan kalil out at center and other dings. The Lions are 6-0 as a double digit dog, believe it or not... but will the Panthers overlook a winless team with tougher games on deck at Atlanta and Green Bay? Some may say that the panther offense and Jake delhomme will recover against a bad Lion defense, but is what Oakland did to them a blueprint? He was only 7 of 27 for 57 yards and four INT's... so it is a stretch to expect a reversal that huge.Carolina has been outgained in the last four games straight, a sign of a "abandon ship" mentality... just can't trust double digit favorites with some serious weaknesses. Another "clothespin" game, attach it to your beak before wagering.Panthers 26, Lions 23.
Chargers walk into a Steelers team that will torch their soft secondary and poor pass rush, plus the loss of Merriman means that they have less to contend with in coverage, whether run support or pass defense. If you have been with me for ANY amount of time, you know that Steelers OVER totals at heinz Field are a near certain play for us, going 44-15-1 OVER the past 60 games! Add to that the defensive weaknesses of San Diego, who are 16-7 OVER the last 23 away (goes to soft secondary and strong offense, plus turnovers and special teams) and you have a recipe for a high scoring game. We don't just play on trends, and the weather calls for snow showers likely... but it isn't so horrible that the field will be covered and any slippery traction helps the offense anyway. Pittsburgh lost their top two corners for this game and they may be able to corral Tomlinson, but the passing game of San Diego will give them fits. The Chargers average 27 points and over 250 passing yards a game. Willie Parker will likely return for the Steelers and that means balance to give Ben R. time to look downfield for some open wideouts. The Chargers have allowed six TD passes in the past two weeks. Against Kansas City? Please. Pitt will torch them. The fact that Pitt has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this year means that more footballs fill the air, the clock stops and we cash another OVER ticket in Pittsburgh, where three previous GAMES OF THE YEAR have been Steelers totals at home. The Steelers are also 13-3 OVER at home vs. the conference. Pittsburgh came into the season facing the most difficult schedule against last year's winning percentage teams of any group in the NFL, and they must win this before facing a road trip that could bury them, so no pages of the deep playbook will be held back. This is a "must-win" game with the team being tied for the AFC North lead. San diego is the perfect tonic for a home recovery, and points will be scored regardless of elements. Our strong history of Steeler totals continues. Footballs fill the air!Steelers 33, Chargers 29.
Smart Betting Systems
Top Plays: TB and Miami and Cincinnati
NCAA Hoops:
Long Beach St
Georgia State
NASCAR: From Game day Pulse who have won money 34 out of 45 racing events since 2005.
Nascar Ford 400
reg 10* Tony Stewart +115 over Kyle Busch
reg 10* Denny Hamlin -160 over Jeff Gordon
reg 10* Ryan Newman -160 over Bobby Labonte
Bestsportspicks
KC
WASH
Matt Fargo
NFC GOW
Tampa Bay
SIXTH SENSE
ATLANTA –6.5 Denver 51
Denver won at Cleveland last week, out gaining the Browns 7.9yppl to 6.2yppl. They passed for 10.3yps and rushed the ball for 4.4ypr but allowed Cleveland 5.5ypr and 6.8yps. Atlanta won pretty easily over NO but were out gained 6.9yppl to 6.1yppl. Those numbers are a little misleading. The Saints passed the ball 59 times and averaged 7.1yps. Obviously passing yards earn more than rushing yards so the high number of passes inflated their yards per play numbers. They did out rush Atlanta 6.2ypr to 3.1ypr but were out passed by Atlanta 10.8yps to 7.1yps. Denver averages 7.3yps against 6.6yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl. The Broncos defense has been terrible allowing 5.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Atlanta averages 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl. They are allowing 4.8ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. Atlanta qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 103-35-3 and plays against them here. That is a very strong situation. But, Atlanta also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 88-49-7. Numbers favor Atlanta by 5.5 points and predict 51 points. I find it hard to take Denver with such a terrible defense although I’m not a huge fan of laying a bunch of points against them. This should be a high scoring game but they have set the total high so I don’t see any value there. ATLANTA 30 DENVER 23
MIAMI –10.5 Oakland 38.5
Miami defeated Seattle last week 21-19 but out gained the Seahawks 5.6yppl to 4.7yppl. They averaged 5.7ypr but allowed Seattle 5.5ypr. Oakland fell behind Carolina and was never really in the game but they were only out gained 3.8yppl to 3.5yppl. They allowed Carolina 5.9ypr and passed for only 2.9yps but did hold Carolina to 2.0yps. Oakland averages just 4.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.5yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr but just 6.2yps against 6.7yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. Miami averages 7.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. Both defenses are just about equal but the Miami offense is much better. Oakland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. They also qualify in my turnover table, which is 390-249-18. Numbers favor Miami by 12 points and predict just 29 points. Miami is 0-5 ATS the last five plus years they have been favored at home by eight or more points. I’m not sure I have enough confidence to bet Oakland but I will lean their way. MIAMI 20 OAKLAND 13
NY GIANTS –7 Baltimore 40.5
Baltimore won at Houston last week 41-13 but they out scored Houston 22-0 in the 4th quarter to break open a close game. Baltimore was out gained in that game pretty badly, 6.3yppl to 5.0yppl, including being out passed 7.0yps to 6.3yps and out rushed 4.7ypr to 4.1ypr. Baltimore won the turnover battle 4-0 to also greatly help them. The Giants went to Philly and won 36-31 in a game they seemed to control just about from the start. The final numbers were close as they were out gained 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl. They rushed for 4.9ypr, which was good considering they were facing a good Philly rush defense but allowed 5.0ypr against a Philly offense that doesn’t rush the ball that well. They did hold Philly to just 5.4yps, which is well below their season average. Baltimore averages just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. so their offense, although improved is still below average. Their defense allows just 3.0ypr against 3.9ypr and 4.6yppl against 5.0yppl. That defense is about the same as the Giants, who allow 5.2yps against 5.7yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. The offense is much better, averaging 5.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. Baltimore qualifies in a let down situation, which is 75-32-7 and plays against them here. Numbers favor the Giants by eight points and predict about 47 points. It should be very tough for Joe Flacco to move the ball against a good Giants defense and there is plenty of offense on the Giants side of the ball to score enough to cover this game. Barring turnovers, the Giants should be able to cover this game. NY GIANTS 27 BALTIMORE 14
INDIANAPOLIS –8 Houston 50.5
Indy has now won a couple of games in a row to give them hope for the playoffs. They out gained the Steelers last week 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl but were out passed 6.2yps to 5.4yps. They did out rush Pittsburgh 3.3ypr to 2.1ypr, which was surprising. Houston lost bad to Baltimore, 13-41 but were out scored 22-0 in the 4th quarter to break open a close game. They out gained the Ravens 6.3yppl to 5.0yppl, including out passing them 7.0yps to 6.3yps and out rushing them 4.7ypr to 4.1ypr. Four costly turnovers did them in against the Ravens. Houston lost to the Colts earlier this year after blowing a big lead in the last five minutes of the game because of three turnovers. Houston averages 4.3ypr against 3.9ypr and 6.8yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. Indy averages just 3.3ypr against 3.8ypr but 6.3yps against 5.8yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl. The defense has been pretty good, especially seeing they have played without Bob Sanders for a few games. Sanders may miss this game as well. They allow just 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. The Colts qualify in a let down situation, which is 123-60-5 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Houston qualifies in my turnover table, which is 390-249-18. The Colts also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 113-47-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Indy by nine points before accounting for the situations. They predict about 52 points. Houston has struggled here over the years, never coming closer than nine points. The last five years has seen every game total at least 48 points as well. The number is set high, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for error. I worry about a poor defense going on the road as they haven’t come closer than 19 points against the two best teams they have faced. But, the 19 point loss at Tennessee was actually only a 12 point game before about a 100 yard interception was returned for a touchdown in the last minutes of the game. Situations are too strong to ignore and the value is fair, making it worth taking a shot with Houston. INDIANAPOLIS 27 HOUSTON 26
Tennessee –3 JACKSONVILLE 39.5
The Titans played well last week considering they rushed for just 20 yards at 0.7ypr. They passed the ball for 284 yards at 6.8yps on their way to out gaining the Bears, 4.3yppl to 3.9yppl. They also held the Bears to 3.3ypr and just 4.2yps. Granted it was Rex Grossman, which probably helped the Titans a little. Jack Del Rio pushed Jacksonville through a tough week of practice and it paid off against the hapless Lions in their 38-14 easy win. They out gained the Lions 6.3yppl to 4.9yppl, including out passing them 8.1yps to 6.1yps and out rushing them 4.8ypr to 3.8ypr.Tennessee averages just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. Jacksonville averages just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Tennessee by 6.5 points and predict about 35 points. Never a big fan of laying points on the road and I don’t believe Tennessee is as good as their record but they can rush the ball and are facing a below average defense and an offense that has struggled all year because of injuries on the offensive line. TENNESSEE 23 JACKSONVILLE 16
GREEN BAY –3.5 Chicago 43.5
The Packers covered last week, which was unfortunate as I played against them. They had no business being in that game as they were out gained 5.1yppl to 3.8yppl, including being out rushed 5.4ypr to 4.1ypr and out passed 4.7yps to 3.7yps. They won the turnover battle 3-0 and returned their second punt for a touchdown this year against the Vikings. The Bears lost at home to Tennessee and were out gained in that game 4.3yppl to 3.9yppl, including allowing Tennessee to throw for 6.8yps and 284 yards. The Bears have rushed the ball better this year but still only rush for 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr. They average just 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl but should get Kyle Orton back this week. The defense allows just 3.1ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.8yps against 6.1yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The Packers offense averages just 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Although they average 6.3yps against 6.1yps and I would expect them to play well on offense this week, finally returning home after two straight road games along with a bye week before those road games. The defense has been great against the pass, allowing just 5.2yps against 5.9yps, but terrible against the rush, allowing 5.0ypr against 4.3ypr for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Chicago qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 659-540-42, including a subset, which is 529-401-30. Numbers favor Chicago by a ½ point and predict about 54 points. Chicago has won four straight games at Lambeau Field. Numbers favor the over but they also include the Packers defensive and special teams returns for touchdowns, which can’t be expected. I will lean towards the over but the Bears are a solid running dog with a good defense in this game. CHICAGO 28 GREEN BAY 24
Philadelphia –9 CINCINNATI 41
Cincinnati comes in off their bye week, which saw them get their first win of the season. Philly comes in off a home loss to the Giants. They were playing from behind in that game just about from the get-go. They did manage to out gain the Giants 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl but I never got the feeling they were going to win that game. Cincinnati has really struggled on offense this year, averaging just 4.1yps against 5.8yps and 4.0yppl against 5.0yppl. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl so they have been average on defense. Philly has started running the ball better and now averages 4.0ypr against 3.9ypr and 6.8yps against 5.9yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.5yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Philly by 11.5 points and predict about 43 points. Philly destroys teams like this and I see the same thing happening here. PHILADELPHIA 28 CINCINNATI 13
New Orleans –5.5 KANSAS CITY 50
The Saints were beaten pretty solidly last week at Atlanta. They out gained the Falcons 6.9yppl to 6.1yppl but they passed the ball 59 times to inflate those yards per play numbers. They were actually out passed 10.8yps to 7.1yps. They did manage to out rush Atlanta 6.2ypr to 3.1ypr. KC played a pretty good game at SD in their loss. They were out gained 6.3yppl to 5.7yppl and out passed 8.1yps to 6.3yps. They managed to out rush SD 4.2ypr to 3.5ypr. The Saints average 7.9yps against 6.1yps and 6.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. KC averages 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 4.9yps against 6.0yps for a total of 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. Although the passing numbers are horrible overall they have averaged at least 6.3yps in each of their last three games. Tyler Thigpen has all of a sudden turned into a passing machine, which has greatly helped the Chiefs offense. The defense is really hurting, allowing 5.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl. And, they have numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t have any situations on this game and the numbers favor NO by just 1.5 points and predict about 51 points. I’ll lean with the Chiefs because of the value but with all the injuries, it’s a weak lean. Again, this should be a high scoring game but the total has been set high removing all of the value. NEW ORLEANS 27 KANSAS CITY 24
CAROLINA –14 Detroit 40
Carolina struggled through a victory at Oakland last week. They out gained Oakland 3.8yppl to 3.5yppl. Allowing just 3.5yppl is very impressive but they averaged just 2.0yps although they did rush for 5.8ypr. Detroit was smoked by Jacksonville, 38-14 and out gained 6.3yppl to 4.9yppl, including being out passed 8.1yps to 6.1yps and being out rushed 4.8ypr to 3.8ypr. Detroit averages just 5.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense is terrible allowing 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 8.0yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Carolina averages 6.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.2yps against 6.4yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t see the Lions passing for many yards in this game and knowing they will probably be behind, that spells trouble. Detroit does qualify in a winless situation, which is 76-30-6. Numbers favor Carolina by 16 points and predict about 35 points. CAROLINA 24 DETROIT 13
TAMPA BAY –4 Minnesota 38.5
TB was off last week with their bye week after needing a late rally to win at KC the week before. Minnesota defeated GB by one point but they dominated the Packers in that game. Three Vikings turnovers and a punt return for a touchdown kept the game close. Minnesota out gained the Packers 5.1yppl to 3.8yppl, including out rushing them 5.4ypr to 4.1ypr and out passing them 4.7yps to 3.7yps. Minnesota averages 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl for the season. The defense allows just 3.1ypr against 3.8ypr and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They face a TB offense that has been below average for the season, gaining just 4.2ypr against 4.ypr, 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been very good allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.7yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. TB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 282-194-21. Numbers favor TB by three points before accounting for the situation and predict about 37 points. The Vikings have lost by at least five points in three of their four road games this year. The other road game they won at NO but were out gained badly in that game. They won the game because of turnovers from the Saints. TB has won each of their home games by at least nine points. TAMPA BAY 24 MINNESOTA 13
SAN FRANCISCO –6.5 St. Louis 43.5
Rams were destroyed at the Jets last week 47-3 getting out gained 6.0yppl to 4.3yppl, including being out rushed 4.8ypr to 3.8ypr and out passed 8.8yps to 4.8yps. The 49ers were out gained 6.1yppl to 4.9yppl, including being out passed 7.8yps to 5.4yps. They did out rush Arizona 4.3ypr to 2.4ypr. The Rams averages just 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They will be without Stephen Jackson this week. The defense is brutal, allowing 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.7yps against 6.3yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The 49ers have been a little better since going to Shaun Hill at quarterback. They average 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.5yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. SF qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 659-540-42, including a subset, which is 529-401-30. Numbers favor SF by 6.5 points and predict about 48 points. This is a good spot for the 49ers, who run the ball well and want to run it more with Singletary as the head coach, to take advantage of a bad Rams rush defense. The Rams have only played one road game where they came within seven points of their opponent. Perfect opportunity for the 49ers to get a big win. SAN FRANCISCO 31 ST LOUIS 17
Arizona –3 SEATTLE 47.5
Arizona came from behind to defeat the 49ers last week. They out gained the 49ers 6.1yppl to 4.9yppl, including out passing them 7.8yps to 5.4yps. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 2.4ypr. Seattle lost at Miami and were out gained 5.6yppl to 4.7yppl. The Seahawks get Matt Hasslebeck back this week and will also have Deon Branch at receiver. Arizona averages just 3.5ypr against 3.8ypr but 7.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. Seattle averages 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr but just 4.6yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Those offensive numbers figure to improve this week with Hasslebeck back this week. Seattle allows 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl and Arizona should be able to take advantage of their poor pass defense. Seattle qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 124-61-5. Numbers favor Arizona by just one point and predict about 51 points. Seattle has won five straight at home against Arizona with most of those games not close. Obviously this is a different team for both, Arizona and Seattle this year. I would normally consider Seattle in this spot but I need to see them play with some of their offensive players back before I can wager on them. ARIZONA 26 SEATTLE 24
PITTSBURGH –5.5 San Diego 42
SD struggled to defeat KC by one point last week, 20-19. They did out gain KC 6.3yppl to 5.7yppl, including out passing them 8.1yps to 6.3yps. Pittsburgh lost at home to Indy and were out gained 4.8yppl to 4.7yppl. They did hold Indy to just 5.4yps and averaged 6.2yps themselves but were held to just 2.1ypr. SD averages 8.1yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh has struggled on offense this year, averaging just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 3.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.4yps against 6.0yps and 3.8yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by 3.5 points and predict about 47 points. Number seems a little high although the Steelers do face a favorable match up to be able to pound the ball. PITTSBURGH 26 SAN DIEGO 21
Dallas –2 WASHINGTON 42
Cowboys come off their bye week after being blown out at the Giants the week before. Tony Romo will start in this game although it remains to be seen how effective he will be. The Redskins also come off their bye week after losing at home to Pittsburgh the week before. Dallas averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.6yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Washington averages 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.5yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Dallas qualifies in my turnover table, which is 390-249-18. Washington qualifies in rushing situations, which are 88-49-6, 206-120-15 and 282-194-21. Numbers favor Washington by one point and predict about 40 points. Washington has won three in a row at home over Dallas although last years game came against a Dallas team that had nothing to play for. Lean here towards Washington. WASHINGTON 21 DALLAS 20
BUFFALO –5 Cleveland 42
Browns lost a close game at home to Denver last week but their defense was dominated by Denver. They allowed Denver to gain 4.4ypr, 10.3 yps and 7.9yps. The Browns did gain 5.5ypr, 6.8yps and 6.2yppl against a bad Denver defense but those numbers are about average when you consider how bad Denver’s defense is. Buffalo lost at New England and were never really in the game. They were out gained 4.7yppl to 3.9yppl, including getting out passed 6.5yps against 4.3yps. Cleveland averages 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allows 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Buffalo averages just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Buffalo qualifies in my turnover table, which is 390-249-18. Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. Numbers favor Buffalo by six points and predict about 40 points. I was a little surprised to see such a low predicted score. This would seem like a good opportunity for Buffalo to get their offense going. If they can’t get it going here it will be a bad sign for the rest of the season for the Bills. BUFFALO 23 CLEVELAND 17
BEST BETS
YTD 34-19-1 +39.30%
3% NY GIANTS –7
3% HOUSTON +8
3% CHICAGO +3.5
3% TAMPA BAY –4
3% SAN FRANCISCO –6.5
EZ Winners
3* Jax
2* Hou
1* Atl, Phil, Sea
NBA 3* Phoenix
Lenny Del Genio
AFC South GOY
Jacksonville
Root
Chairman- Rams
Millionaire- Redskins
Money Maker- Bengals
No Limit- Jaguars
Insiders Circle- Texans
Billionaire- Chargers
Dave Malinsky
5* New Orleans
4* Cincy
Steve Merill
New Orleans
Houston
Arizona