Dr. Bob
Houston 27 CLEVELAND (-3.0) 26
These two teams are equally bad defensively, but Houston is likely to out-gain the Browns in this game, as their attack averages 6.0 yards per play and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses. Cleveland, meanwhile, has averaged just 5.0 yppl and rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average. Cleveland’s offense has performed better in Brady Quinn’s two starts (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl), but that has more to do with the rushing number (actually one 72 yard run by backup RB Harrison) than it does with Quinn, who has actually been a bit worse than former starter Derek Anderson from a compensated yards per pass play perspective. Quinn, however, has not thrown an interception in two starts and that will be a key in this game, as Houston’s Sage Rosenfels has thrown 7 interceptions in 3 ½ games this season and has a career interception rate of 5.1%. Cleveland is likely to make up for the difference in total yards with a turnover advantage, but my math model favors the Browns by only 1 point even with a 1.3 projected turnover advantage. Cleveland applies to a negative 36-99-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense (bad defensive teams are bad as favorites) and that angle applies as long as the Browns are favored by 3 points or more. Houston should cover the spread in this game if they -2 in turnover margin or better and that is likely to be the case.Average Team
KANSAS CITY 24 Buffalo (-3.0) 23
Kansas City is still a horrible defensive team (6.4 yppl allowed), but the Chiefs have hit their stride offensively since implementing a spread offense in week 8. Rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen was horrible in the standard pro set offense early in the season, but Thigpen ran the spread effectively in college and his numbers have vastly improved running the spread offense the last 4 weeks. Kansas City has averaged 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and the Chiefs should move the ball pretty well against a mediocre Buffalo defense. The Bills appear to have a decent offense, averaging 5.3 yppl, but they’ve faced a slate of mostly bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Buffalo will post good numbers against Kansas City’s porous stop unit and my math model favors the Bills by 2 ½ points in this game – so the line is fair. However, Kansas City applies to a 94-43-3 ATS contrary situation that plays on teams on a losing streak, so I like the Chiefs plus the points.
MIAMI (-1.0) 23 New England 20
The Patriots are still being priced partially on past success and reputation, as this year’s team continues to be overrated. New England may be 6-4 but the Pats have been out-gained 5.2 yards per play to 5.5 yppl despite facing a pretty easy schedule of teams. Miami’s schedule has been only slightly better, but the Dolphins have out-gained their foes 5.9 yppl to 5.4 yppl. Miami is clearly a better team from the line of scrimmage, but the Dolphins have had major problems with their special teams and has only out-scored their opponents by 1.2 points per game. My math model favors Miami by 4 ½ points in this game, but the Patriots apply to a 73-37-6 ATS situation that is a combination of revenge (Miami won in Foxboro 38-13 in week 3) and motivation from the Patriots’ loss last week. I’d still prefer to lean with Miami despite that angle.
Chicago (-7.5) 26 ST. LOUIS 17
The Rams are a horrible team, but Chicago rates as just average on both sides of the ball and my math model favors the Bears by only 7 ½ points, which is right on the number. There are situations favoring both sides, but the stronger angle favors the Bears, so I’ll lean slightly with Chicago.
Tampa Bay (-7.5) 25 DETROIT 18
Daunte Culpepper may be an upgrade at quarterback for the Lions, but my math model still favors Tampa Bay by 10 ½ points in this game. Detroit, however, applies to a 97-48-5 ATS contrary angle that plays on horrible teams. Detroit covered in that situation at Minnesota, at Chicago, and at Carolina last week and I’ll lean with the Lions plus the points today.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) 20 Minnesota 19
Minnesota is a better team than Jacksonville from the line of scrimmage, as the Jaguars have been out-gained 5.1 yppl to 5.8 yppl against a mediocre schedule while the Vikings are average offensively and 0.4 yppl better than average defensively after adjusting for their tough schedule. Minnesota’s problems this season have been on special teams, which have allowed 4 punt return TD’s in addition to making other mistakes on a weekly basis. My math model favors Jacksonville by 1 ½ points, so I’ll lean with Minnesota plus the points.
Philadelphia 19 BALTIMORE (-1.0) 17
The Eagles haven’t been as good as their stats, as they are just 5-4-1 straight up despite out-scoring opponents by an average of 7.1 points per game and out-gaining foes 5.7 yards per play to 4.6 yppl. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 6-4 while averaging 4.9 yppl and allowing 4.9 yppl for the season. My math model favors Philadelphia by 1 ½ points and I’ll lean slightly with Philly
Dallas27 vs San Fran 20
Tony Romo returned last week after missing 3 games and the Cowboys’ offense returned with him after averaging just 4.0 yards per play in the 3 games he missed. Romo’s numbers this season have been incredible, as he’s averaged 7.9 yards per pass play against mostly good defensive teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Romo was about as good as usual in his first game back, averaging 7.3 yppp against a good Redskins’ secondary that would allow just 5.3 yppp at home to an average quarterback. The Cowboys’ rushing attack also benefits from Romo being under center, as the Cowboys have been 0.7 ypr better than average in 7 games with Romo and 0.4 ypr worse than average in 3 games without Romo (they were 0.9 ypr better than average last week). San Francisco is also better offensively now than they’ve been for the season, as the Niners Shaun Hill has averaged 6.7 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) while committing just 3 turnovers in 2 ½ games. Former starter J.T. O’Sullivan has a higher yards per pass attempt average (7.6 ypa to 7.3 ypa for Hill), but he held the ball too long and was sacked 32 times in 7 ½ games while also throwing 11 interceptions and losing 6 fumbles. Hill has been about 4 ½ points better than O’Sullivan so far when you incorporate the sacks and turnovers and the 49ers are a pretty good team if they don’t turn the ball over. San Francisco has averaged 5.5 yards per play and allowed 5.3 yppl this season, so they should be a competitive team going forward with Hill at quarterback. My math model favors Dallas by just 7 ½ points in this game and I’ll lean with the Niners plus the points
ATLANTA (-1.0) 23 Carolina 20
Carolina is one of the very best teams in the NFL, rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively. The Falcons are good offensively behind rookie quarterback Matt Ryan (5.8 yards per play), but they’re allowing 5.7 yppl and are just an average team overall. My math model favors the Panthers by 1 point, but the Falcons apply to a 76-33-3 ATS statistical indicator and I’ll lean with Atlanta based on that
ARIZONA 23 NY Giants (-3.0) 21
The Giants are the best team in the NFL, but Arizona is not that much worse and can certainly pull of the upset here. Arizona’s offense has averaged 6.1 yards per play and they rate at 1.0 yppl better than average if I only include the 8 games in which star WR Anquan Boldin played. The Giants’ defense is 0.4 yppl better than average for the season, but I rate that unit as 0.6 yppl better than average after dampening the affect of their one horrible game against Cleveland (they gave up 8.1 yppl in that game), which skewed their average. Arizona has a solid 0.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. The Giants’ offense has averaged 5.9 yppl against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team, but Arizona’s defense is better than their mediocre season numbers, as they were horrible in two games without star S Adrian Wilson. The Cardinals are 0.4 yppl better than average in 8 games with Wilson, so New York has only a 0.3 yppl advantage over Arizona’s underrated defense. While Arizona has a slightly overall advantage from the line of scrimmage my math model still favors New York by ½ a point after factoring in other elements. However, the line value is on the side of the Cardinals and the technical analysis favors Arizona a bit. I’ll call for the mini-upset.
Washington (-3.5) 21 SEATTLE 18
Washington has out-gained their opponents 5.4 yppl to 4.9 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would out-gain an average team 5.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl. Washington is an all-around solid team, but the Seahawks are getting better offensively and now have starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck back at the controls. My math model, however, still favors Washington by 6 ½ points, but Seattle applies to a solid 86-42-3 ATS home underdog situation. I’ll lean slightly with the Seahawks plus the points.
NBA - JOHN MORRISON (SPORTS BETTING CHAMP)
GOLDEN STATE
VEGAS JOEY
TOP - San Diego
TOP - St.Louis OVER
REG - Tennessee
REG - San Fran
REG - Houston UNDER
Matt Fargo
Portland U at UC Davis
Prediction: UC Davis
UC-Davis is expected to be one of the most improved teams in the Big West Conference this season. While the Aggies are not thinking championship, they are thinking about improving their win totals from last season that were nine overall and two in the conference. They are 1-3 to start the season but all three losses came on the road and two of those were rather close against Iowa St. and Wisconsin-Milwaukee. UC-Davis won its lone game against Loyola-Marymount where it shot 51.3 percent and 82.4 percent from the line.
Portland is 2-1 to start the season including a big win over Washington and then most recently a victory over Yale. Both of those wins came at home with its lone road game resulting in a loss at rival Portland St. The Pilots struggled last season as well, going 9-22 overall including 3-11 in the West Coast Conference. They were hurt by road struggles, going 2-14 away from the Chiles Center. The Pilots are a year older but being able to win on the road has yet to be proven and with this line, that is what they are expected to do. They wont however. 3* UC-Davis Aggies
Joe Gaffney
Houston Texans +3
Pick: Money Line: -108 New England Patriots
Money Line: -122 Baltimore Ravens
Money Line: -162 New York Giants
Frank Patron
30000 Unit Lock #30
Denver Broncos -8.5
Ron Raymond
5* Montreal Alouettes -2
Youngstown Connection
NFL 3 Pack
New England PK
San Francisco +9.5
Atlanta -1
WUNDERDOG
Houston at Cleveland
Pick: 3 units Houston +3
Pick: 3 units UNDER 50.5
The playoff chase for these teams has become a long shot at best. Each have had disappointing seasons to date, and will be fighting for a win here to keep some hope alive. Houston has struggled to be the same offense from last year. They produced 30+ points four times last season, but just once this season. While the offense has been productive at home, where they average 26.3 ppg, they have managed to be an ordinary offensive team on the road, where they are scoring just 20.8 ppg. It has always been a problem for this team, as they have now managed just 18.6 ppg on the road in their last 12. This is the reason the Browns are laying a field goal in this game. But, do the Browns really deserve to be favored? They won a nailbiter vs. Buffalo on Monday Night but despite a 4-0 turnover advantage, they nearly lost the game. This team seems to find ways to lose this year (a total reverse from last year). The Browns are 1-4 at home and have the kind of defense that will allow Sage Rosenfels to get comfortable. I like the points in a game that can easily go either way. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns have produced high scoring games of late, but the numbers may be a bit misleading. It took late game flourishes in their last two to produce high finals as 27 and 28 points were scored in the 4th quarter. These teams played in Cleveland last year to a similar total over 50, and played to a 44-point finish. I look for a similar game here. I'll back the Texans and the UNDER here.
New England at Miami
Pick: 3 units Miami -1
How things have changed in the AFC East. Last year Miami was 1-15 and New England was 16-0. This season, the teams are tied at 6-4 and Miami is going for the season sweep. New England was a 12-point favorite in the first game and lost 38-13. Now Miami is favored and I like their chances. Throw out the prior stats and perceptions. Right now Miami is at least as good as New England. And, at home, they have a big advantage. Bill Belichick has a tough task in this one - how much should he prepare for the Wildcat offense? In their first meeting, he had no answer for it, leading to Miami's convincing win. He'll be more prepared here, but that means less prep time for Miami's standard offense. The Pats are still smarting on defense as Adalius Thomas Rodney Harrison are out and Ty Warren, Eric Alexander, Terrence Wheatley and Lewis Sanders are all day-to-day. This is the biggest game in Dolphin Stadium in years. I expect the atmosphere to be electric and for the Dolphins to make a statement.
New York Giants at Arizona
Pick: 3 units UNDER 48
Everyone is waiting for the Giants to expose a weakness, but none has yet appeared. They grind down defenses with a punishing 3-headed running game and when needed, Eli Manning makes a play. The defense has allowed 14 points or less in six of their ten games, having recorded 31 sacks already. Arizona has not seen too many top defenses. The Cards pour it on vs. weak defenses, but against very good ones, it's a different story. In the games vs. the top two they have played (Washington #4 and Carolina #8), Arizona scored the fewest points of the season (23 and 17). The Giants defense is better than both Washington and Carolina. While the offense gets all the press, the defense is underated in that it ranks 11th overall. The Giants are going to run as much as possible to extend drives, and keep the high-powered Zona offense off the field.The Giants are one of the top teams in time of possession, as they play defense for just an average of 26:52 a game. The Cards will not be running up and down the field here vs. the Giants, and their drives will take time. New York is 11-1 UNDER in their last twelve road games played to a total over 45. I like this one to go UNDER the total.
San Francisco at Dallas
Pick: 3 units San Francisco +10
Tony Romo is back and so are the Cowboys. Or so the story goes. When Romo went down, Dallas lost two of three, scoring 14 ppg in the process. Upon his return they won. But, the Cowboys continued to struggle offensively, scoring 14 again. The fact remains that after their 5-1 start in which they averaged 29.4 ppg, the Cowboys have averaged just 15.8 per game while allowing 23.6. It's not yet clear to me that Dallas is out of the woods, even with Romo back. Without Felix Jones who is done for the season, and with TO completely stalled, this Dallas offense has looked more mediocre than great. The Boys are just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. San Francisco's offense has produced more points per game on the season than Dallas. They should be able to score against this Cowboys defense - at least enough to keep this game close. This is just too many points to lay for a team with this many question marks.
Game: Oakland at Denver
Pick: 3 units Oakland +9
Denver is laying near double-digits? Hmmmm. Denver is 6-4 but this is not a 6-4 team. They were handed a win by Ed Hoculi in September and recorded close wins vs. New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Cleveland - all three of which could have easily been losses. They have given up 30+ points four times already and on the season and have scored fewer points (248) than they have allowed (271). I'm not saying Denver is a horrible team. They are simply a .500 team that has gotten a bit lucky, and laying this many points in a division game is out of whack. Their upset win vs. Atlanta last week sets this game up nicely as it gives Broncos-backers reason to believe. And, no one wants to be on Oakland right now. The Raiders certainly have their issues, but they have usually played Denver close, even at Mile High, even when the talent difference is bigger than it is this year. In the earlier meeting, Denver won in a blowout which means the Broncos could be a little overconfident and Oakland will be motivated to atone. While they lost, I was impressed by Oakland's showing vs. Miami last week. I think their offense will have success against this porous Denver defense. Denver has lost 67% of their home games ATS the past decade vs. losing teams and dating back to last year, they are 3-12 ATS as a favorite. I like Oakland to keep this close.
Washington at Seattle
Pick: 3 units Seattle +3.5
What has happened to the Skins? They opened the season looking great, winning four of their first five with the only loss coming to the Giants. Since then they have gone just 2-3 however with wins coming over Cleveland and Detroit. In their last five games they have averaged just 14.4 points per game. Last week, despite Clinton Portis playing, they managed just 10 points against a weak Dallas defense. I was on Seattle last week, assuming with Hasselbeck, Branch and Engram back, the Seattle offense would again be clicking. That prediction was at least a week too early but this could be the week for the Seahawks. I do expect the offense to perform better here. The Skins are just 2-10 ATS the past three seasons vs. losing teams. In their last 15 games as a road favorite of a field goal or more, they are just 3-12 ATS. I just don't think a team that is struggling offensively as much as Washington should be favored on the road and I'll back the home dog here.
Carolina at Atlanta
Pick: 3 units Atlanta -1
Atlanta dropped a tough game at home vs. Denver last week. One thing this team has been able to do is shake off a loss and come storming back the next week. The Falcons are 3-0 SU and ATS after a loss with a margin of winning of 17 ppg. I expect the Falcons to bring it here, especially given that this game is a huge measuring stick against the 8-2 Panthers. Yes, the Panthers are 8-2, but they have not beaten anyone of significance on the road all season. In their last game against Oakland on the road they were lucky to come away with a win, as they turned the ball over continuously. Atlanta is not Oakland and a similar performance will get the Panthers blown out of the building. Carolina scored just 30 points in their last three road games at Minnesota, Oakland and Tampa Bay. The three-game offensive output is not pretty as the Panthers totalled 705 yards, or just 235 yards per game. The Carolina defense has been stiff, but allows nearly 4 yards per carry on the ground. The Falcons should be able to move the chains, as their running game at home has been unstoppable, producing 160.4 ypg. This is a statement game for the Falcons, and the Panthers have shown vulnerability on the road. I'll grab the Falcons to get it done here.
Game: Indianapolis at San Diego
Pick: 3 units UNDER 49.5
This total reflects reputation and perception more than current reality. When you think of Indianapolis and San Diego, you think of offense. The Colts offense has been a machine over the last five years. They have not finished lower than 5th best in each of the past five years. The Chargers, after three straight years with a top 10 offense, slipped out last year. But this year is different! This year the Colts are in the bottom half of the league and the Chargers are ranked 14th in total offense. Totals in this range in the NFL are reserved for top offenses, not the perception of top offenses. The Chargers have had their moments but five of their last six games have gone UNDER. They have managed to score 20 or less in four of them, and just 15 ppg in their last two. The defense has also allowed only 15 ppg in the last two as well. The Colts have scored 24 or less in seven of their ten games. Last year they scored 24 or more in 10 games, a mark they can't achieve this year even with six games remaining. This total is way too high, and isn't based on what these teams are doing this year. I'll back the UNDER
Rick Zuber
Lock of the Year
Falcons - 1
Larry Ness
Massive Mismatch- CBB
Xavier
Weekend Wipeout Winner- NBA
Detroit Pistons
Las Vegas Insider- CBB
UCONN
EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
WILLIE "D"
Elite HOUSTON/CLEVELAND OVER
Blue Chip MIAMI
Opposite Action SEATTLE
"LEGS" DIAMOND (Bookie Massacre Plays 11-3 Last 14)
SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR INDIANAPOLIS
BOOKIE MASSACRE SEATTLE
TOTAL BOOKIE NIGHTMARE NEW JERSEY GIANTS UNDER
OPPOSITE ACTION MIAMI
RANDY MITCHEL
Double Platinum ATLANTA
Diamond BUFFALO/KANSAS CITY OVER
Bryan Leonard
NFL Game of the Year!
New England at Miami
Revenge is sweet or payback is a bitch. Choose whatever cliche you prefer but the Patriots want this game badly. In the first meeting the Dolphins put in the Wildcat offense and it took the Pats completely by surprise in a 38-13 Miami victory. That was the Patriot's worst loss since 2005 and started all the talk about New England being past their prime. Since that game New England has improved on a week to week basis and they are in much better shape to take on the Dolphins this time around. QB Cassel was starting for the just his second game the last time these two tangled. Now he is becoming a solid option behind center for New England. The defense which was taken back by the inovative Miami play calling has had plenty of time to prepare for a team they overlooked in the first meeting. After all, the Pats had just played in the Super Bowl while Miami was coming in off a 1-15 season. Bill Belichick is a master motivator and he has been absolutely terrific off a loss posting a 13-1 spread mark in the following game. Also because the Pats played last Thursday they have three extra days to prepare for this divisional rival. That loss last week was to the rival NY Jets and the Patriots are 15-2 ATS off a divisional loss. New England knows that this is a must win game as they can't afford to lose to Miami twice in one season because of the divisional tiebreakers. New England who hasn't lost back to back games the past two years is a focused team in need playing with embarrassing revenge.Miami has been a pleasant surprise this season but they are a much better team in the underdog role. As a favorite or in the pick 'em range this isn't a team to be trusted. They have not looked good as of late despite playing nothing but creampuffs the likes of Seattle and Oakland the past two weeks. They will really be stepping up in class and we certainly feel they will be out of their element.
PLAY NEW ENGLAND
BIG AL
Sunday
1* South Florida -3
NFL
4* Arizona +3
3* Minnesota +2.5
3* Chicago -8
3* Tennessee -5
3* San Diego -2.5
3* Atlanta -1
1* Tampa -8.5
1* Oakland +10
IndianCowboy
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Pick: 3 units Detroit Lions +9 (-130) (POD)
Game: Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Pick: 3 units Oakland Raiders +10 (-125)