PSYCHIC
2 units Houston +3
2 units Denver -9
5 units Philadelphia +1
WISEGUY
DA STICK
5 units KC +3.5
5 units Jacksonville -2.5
10 units Carolina +1
10 units Denver -9
10 units Seattle +3.5
10 units Indianapolis +3
Cajun-Sports Executive
New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: 5* New York Giants -3
Glendale Arizona and the University of Phoenix will be the site of today’s NFC clash between the host Cardinals and the visiting Giants from New York.
The Cardinals are about to win a division title in the very weak NFC West for the first time since 1975. Today’s game is a huge step up in class compared to what they have been playing to attain this winning record.
In fact the teams they have faced have a combined record of 7-23 SU. Now they are facing possibly the best team in the league and that team is on a mission. The Giants division is much tougher and they can ill afford a day off, they know they need to win this game whereas the Cardinals have a four-game lead in their division.
The Giants are the best rushing team in football and that style of play keeps the pass-happy Cardinals offense on the sidelines. The Giants have rushed for 200+ yards in four games this season. They are coming off a 207 yard performance last week against the number one rush defense in the NFL.
New York may be without RB Brandon Jacobs but RB Derrick Ward and Jacobs are the top 2 in the NFL in yards per carry among players with at least 500+ yards rushing on the season. RB Derrick Ward has averaged 5.3 yards per carry this season and can carry the load on Sunday against the Cardinals.
This Giants team will be the toughest both mentally and physically that the Cardinals have faced to date. The Giants are 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS on the highway and 11-1 ATS when facing teams with a winning record.
The Giants have defeated Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Baltimore over the last four weeks while the Cards have only faced and defeated St. Louis, Seattle and San Francisco on MNF but they actually should have lost to the 49ers in that game. The level of competition is dramatically different and when the Cardinals faced two top 10 pass defenses in Carolina and Washington they lost both games SU and went 1-1 ATS.
Key Angles: The Giants are 22-3 ATS on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Giants are 18-1 ATS when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Giants are 11-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Giants are 13-1 ATS within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Giants are 10-0 ATS on the road when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Giants are 11-0 ATS within 3 of pick on the road. The Cardinals are 8-19 ATS the week after a win in which they benefited from at least four turnovers. The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS as a home dog versus a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 14-5 ATS as a road favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. NFL teams are 22-9-1 ATS within 3 of pick on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. NFL teams are 11-1 ATS as a road favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. NFL teams are 48-71-3 ATS as a dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. NFL teams are 5-17 ATS within 3 of pick at home versus any team with more wins after a straight up win. NFL teams are 9-20-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road as a favorite. NFL teams are 0-9 ATS as a home dog the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing.
In this contest we will back the better team laying a small number on the road as the Giants continue their quest for another World Championship and Arizona gets a reminder that they are Arizona.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* New York Giants-3
New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Prediction: 4* Tennessee Titans -5
The Tennessee Titans put their perfect record on the line against the New York Jets on Sunday in Nashville. It seems hard to believe, but Sunday’s showdown between the Jets & Titans could be a sneak preview of the AFC title game two months from now.
Both New York and Tennessee lead their respective divisions and if the regular season ended after Week 11, would have been the hosts of the divisional playoff games in the conference. Still, there is plenty of football left to be played, and both teams have obvious reasons to want to win here today.
The Titans are a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS at home in ’08, outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game. New York is 3-2 SU & ATS on the road, yielding a hefty 25.2 points per game.
The Titans were down by eleven points last week at Jacksonville and once again Kerry Collins pulled out the win. Collins led the Titans on three scoring drives of 55, 63 and 51 yards. The Tennessee defense held the Jags to three first downs and 85 yards of offense in the second half of the game with six straight punts.
New York had a few extra days to prepare for this contest but they are off an emotional win over a fierce rival in the New England Patriots. This will be the second week of travel for the Jets and could be very tough to get up even though they are facing an undefeated Titans team.
Favre will be facing a Titans defense which has given up the fewest points in the league, is tied for second with 15 interceptions and ranks third in the AFC with 28 sacks - 10 in the last three weeks. Star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth has seven sacks and keys a defense which has allowed one 100-yard rusher all season.
Tennessee's defense could be welcoming back two starters this week after defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) had missed the last three games and cornerback Nick Harper (ankle) sat out last week. All bad news for the Jets as this Titans defense is solid and will just get better with the return of these two players.
Key Angles: The Jets are 1-15 ATS as a dog when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Jets are 2-13-1 ATS as a dog the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Jets are 1-10 ATS as a road dog when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Titans are 8-0 ATS the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Titans are 14-4 ATS when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. The Titans are 6-0 ATS as a favorite when they swept a team last week.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 14-28-1 ATS as a dog the week after scoring 34+ points. NFL teams are 8-20-1 ATS the week after a straight up win on the road as a dog in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 62-38-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.
We will back the host here as they continue their perfect run for another week and also cash the winning ticket against the spread.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tennessee Titans -5
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Prediction: 4* New England Patriots +2
Little Cuba will be the site of Sunday’s AFC matchup between the host Dolphins and the visiting Patriots from New England.
The Patriots wrap up a crucial 3-game divisional stretch with this game in Miami, seeking payback for the 38-13 beating the Dolphins put on them back in Week 3. New England was a 12-point favorite in that game, the third straight time they were favored by double-digits in the series.
The Patriots are 25-10 ATS in their L35 games revenging a same season loss. New England is 14-5 ATS in division revenge games under HC Belichick and a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine in that role. Belichick’s team is 18-7 ATS in divisional road games during his tenure. We also note that the Patriots are 11-0 ATS as a pick or underdog off a SU loss in which they allowed 24 or more points.
The Dolphins have been worse at home vs. division foes, going 3-13 ATS in their L16. Miami is also 4-19-1 ATS versus AFC East rivals over the last four seasons. We note that NFL home favorites who won 1 or no games last season and are now facing an opponent off a SU loss in their last game are 3-12 ATS and the Dolphins are 0-3 ATS in that role this season!
Key Angles: The Patriots are 15-1 ATS after a straight up loss. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS on the road after a straight up loss. The Patriots are 12-1 ATS on the road versus a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Dolphins are 3-18-2 ATS versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Dolphins are 6-20-2 ATS versus a divisional opponent. The Dolphins are 3-21 ATS as a home favorite.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 18-4-1 ATS within 3 of pick the week after at home as a favorite in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. NFl teams are 21-9-5 ATS as a dog when facing a divisional opponent with the same record as theirs. NFL teams are 6-24-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home versus a divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL teams are 8-22-1 ATS within 3 of pick when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week at home.
The Dolphins have improved this season but we will back the visitor here as the better coach and overall team gets their revenge in Little Cuba on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* New England Patriots +2
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
Prediction: 4* Houston / Cleveland Over 50.5
Cleveland will play host to the visiting Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon. The Texans are coming in off a loss at Indy last Sunday 27 to 33 although they did cover the 7.5 point spread. Cleveland is working on a short week as they defeated the Bills in Buffalo on Monday Night Football 29 to 27 as a 5 point road underdog.
The Texans made it a game with Indy by running the football. Texans rookie RB Steve Slaton rushed for 156 yards on only 14 carries. They have limited Slaton’s carries in an effort to keep him fresh and it has worked.
The Texans defense allowed the worst rushing team in the NFL to rack up 154 yards on the ground last week. We are of course talking about the Colts as they are the worst team in the league rushing the ball with 77 yards per game average.
Houston is averaging 20.8 points per game on the road while their defense has allowed 32.0 points per game on the highway. Over their last three games they have averaged 20.3 points per game on offense and their defense has allowed a whopping 34.0 points per game. Teams are averaging 11.5 yards per point during the last three games which is terrible for the Texans defense.
Cleveland’s QB Brady Quinn has completed 37 of 71 passes (52.1%) for 424 yards with two touchdowns and no INT’s. The Browns are averaging 287 yards of total offense this season while their defense is giving up 368.3 yards of total offense per game on the year.
The Browns have averaged 28.7 points per game and 336.7 yards of offense over their last three contests while their defense has allowed 32.7 points per game and 442.3 yards of offense during that same time period.
Our Defensive Efficiency Ratings Index has the Browns ranked 23rd in the league with an average rating of 22.3. The Texans are ranked 27th in the league with a rating of 24.3. The top teams in the League in this Index have averages of 4.0, 5.0 and 5.3 which are the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers respectively. Needless to say both of these teams are not very good on the defensive side of the ball.
Key Angles: The Texans are 12-1 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Texans are 12-3 Over as a dog when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week as a dog. The Texans are 13-2 Over when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Texans are 12-1 Over after playing on the road as a dog. The Browns are 10-4 Over when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Browns are 11-3 Over off 1 or more straight overs the last 2 seasons. The Browns are 8-1 Over off 2 or more consecutive overs the last 2 seasons. The Browns are 8-1 Over after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 50-26-3 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. NFL teams are 20-4 Over the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 12-1 Over on the road the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 12-1-1 Over within 3 of pick the week after a win in which they benefited from at least four turnovers. NFL teams are 41-22-3 Over as a home favorite after playing on the road as a dog. NFL teams are 43-18-3 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak.
The combination of strong fundamental, situational and technical support makes the “Over” in this contest our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Houston / Cleveland Over 50.5
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: 3* Buffalo / Kansas City Over 42
The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are coming off a home loss to the Saints 30 to 20 as a 6 point home underdog. The Bills are playing on a short week as they hosted the Browns on Monday Night Football and lost SU as a 5-point home favorite 29 to 27.
Kansas City is a horrible defensive team allowing 6.4 yards per play but they have really begun to play well offensively since they implemented the spread offense in Week 8. The Chiefs QB woes have gotten much better with Rookie QB Tyler Thigpen since the change to the spread offense. He struggled trying to run the regular pro style offense but he ran the spread in college and has done extremely well with it the last four weeks. Kansas City has averaged 5.6 yards per play and should have no trouble moving the ball against a mediocre Bills defensive unit.
The Bills offense has done a decent job this season averaging 5.3 yards per play. QB Trent Edwards has struggled recently throwing eight INT’s and losing two fumbles over their last four games. He should gain some confidence today against a Chiefs defense that ranks 27th in the league in passing yards allowed and last in sacks with only six on the season.
Key Angles: The Bills are 11-1 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Bills are 6-0 Over on the road versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up loss at home. The Bills are 9-1 Over when they are 500. The Bills are 12-3 Over as a road favorite versus a non-divisional opponent. The Bills are 5-0 Over before playing the 49ers. The Chiefs are 16-6 Over after playing at home as a dog. The Chiefs are 7-0 Over as a home dog when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. The Chiefs are 12-2-1 Over as a dog when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Chiefs are 14-6-1 Over when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.
Key Systems: NFL teams are 47-27-2 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. NFL teams are 19-6-2 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. NFL teams are 43-18-3 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL teams are 20-5-1 Over on the road when they are 500 after game seven after a straight up loss at home. NFL teams are 40-25-2 Over as a dog after a straight up loss at home. NFL teams are 43-18-3 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL teams are 23-8 Over as a home dog after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. NFL teams are 12-4 Over within 3 of pick after a straight up loss as a home dog.
Strong technical factors and teams with stronger offensive units and average or below average defensive units gives us only one play here and that is the Over in today’s contest.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Buffalo / Kansas City Over 42
ATS Lock Club
5 Cowboys -9
5 Jets +5.5
4 Dolphins pk
4 Redskins -3
4 (Hoops) UConn -4
ATS Financial Package
4 Chargers -2.5
4 Over 47.5 Giants/Cards
3 (Hoops) U Cal. Davis Pk
Hanidcapping Prophets
3* Chattanooga +2.5
3* Portland +1
atslocks.com
New England +1.5 (15 unit play)
NY Jets @ Tennessee Over/Under 40.5 (15 unit play)
Detroit +7.5 (5 unit play)
UIC -3.5 (10 unit play)
Wizards @ NY Knicks Under 206 (15 unit play)
Two Minute Warning
Buffalo -3
Miami +1
San Francisco +10
Detroit +8 1/2
Baltimore -1
St. Louis +7 1/2
Carolina +1
Denver -9
Seattle +3 1/2
Iron Horse
10* NON CONFERENCE GOY
JACKSONVILLE
Sixth Sense
CLEVELAND –3 Houston 50
Cleveland escaped with a win last week at Buffalo and out gained the Bills 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl. But, they had a long run for a touchdown and without that run they would have averaged less than 4.0yppl. They also were +4 in turnover margin, which greatly helped them as well. Houston lost at Indy last week but led in the second half and out gained the Colts 7.9yppl to 5.9yppl, including out rushing them 7.1ypr to 4.5ypr and out passing them 9.0yps to 7.0yps. For the season, Houston averages 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.9yps against 6.0yps and 6.0yppl against 5.1yppl. That is much better than a Cleveland offense, which averages just 4.1ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.5yps against 5.8yps and 4.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Both teams are similar on defense, where Houston allows 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.1yps against 5.8yps and 5.8yppl against 5.0yppl. Cleveland allows 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.1yps against 6.0yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a 28-8-2 momentum situation but that situation isn’t that strong compared to the strong situations Houston qualifies in. The Texans qualify in my turnover table, which is 393-250-18. Cleveland also qualifies in a strong negative rushing situation, which is 114-47-8. Numbers favor Cleveland by four points before accounting for the situations. They also predict about 55 points. I’m not interested in going over such a high total even though there is value. Also, playing in Cleveland where it figures to be cold could have a negative impact on the scoring. But, I do like a good offense like Houston, getting points against a very weak defense in Cleveland. HOUSTON 30 CLEVELAND 24
Buffalo –3.5 KANSAS CITY 43.5
Buffalo lost at home last week to Cleveland and didn’t look good in doing so, especially when you consider it was against a bad Cleveland defense. The Bills gained 4.9ypr, which is about average against a Cleveland defense but passed for just 5.7yps, which is well below what a Cleveland defense typically allows teams to throw for. Overall they gained 5.2yppl. They allowed 6.0ypr but just 4.8yps and 5.3yppl overall. Actually if you take away a long run in the game by Cleveland they allowed the Browns under 4.0yppl for the game. KC lost at home to NO and were out gained 5.8yppl to 5.0yppl. They did rush for 5.2ypr but managed to only throw for 4.8yps. For the season Buffalo is averaging just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.7yps and 5.3yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. KC is averaging 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr but just 4.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.5yps against 6.6yps and 6.3yppl against 5.5yppl overall. Hard to ever assume a team like KC will all of a sudden play much better on defense but it’s also hard to believe Buffalo will perform much better on offense than they have when they couldn’t do it at home against a poor Cleveland defense. Buffalo does qualify in my turnover table, which is 393-250-18. Numbers favor Buffalo by just one point and predict about 36 points. I will call this a three point game and the let the line decide which way I lean. BUFFALO 20 KANSAS CITY 17
TENNESSEE –5.5 NY Jets 40.5
The Jets came out smoking last week against NE and then managed to win in OT 34–31. But they were badly out gained in that game by NE, 6.5yppl to 5.0yppl, including being out rushed 5.0ypr to 3.6ypr and out passed 7.1yps to 6.5yps. Tennessee spotted Jacksonville a 14-3 lead at halftime last week before storming back to an easy 24-14 win. Tennessee out gained Jacksonville 6.0yppl to 3.9yppl, including out passing them 9.6yps to 3.4yps. They were out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.5ypr. Although the Jets have won four in a row on the road they are still not throwing the ball well, averaging just 6.2ypr against 6.6yps and on offense overall they average just 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has been strong against the run allowing just 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr but they are allowing 6.2ypr against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl making them average on defense. Tennessee is nothing to write home about on offense, averaging just 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl but the defense has been good allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.9yps against 5.7yps and 4.4yppl against 5.0yppl overall. The Jets qualify in a letdown situation, which is 75-32-7 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Tennessee by 4.5 points and predict about 45 points. The Jets have played one good team outside their division this year and that was the Cardinals who they defeated by 21 points but that was largely because of a +6 in turnover margin. Tennessee has won every game this year and all but two of them by at least seven points. TENNESSEE 29 NY JETS 16
MIAMI PK New England 42
The final score in the Miami game last week was just 17-15 for a small two point victory for Miami but they dominated the stats in that game, out gained Oakland 6.4yppl to 3.9yppl, including out rushing them 6.3ypr to 3.5ypr, out passing them 6.4yps to 4.1yps. NE fell behind early against the Jets and then fought back to force OT before losing in OT to the Jets. But, they out gained the Jets 6.5yppl to 5.0yppl. Part of that was because they threw the ball 18 more times than the Jets and averaged a pretty good clip when doing so. They out rushed NY 5.0ypr to 3.6ypr, out passed them 7.lyps to 6.5yps. NE continues to be well below average throwing the ball, averaging just 5.9yps against 6.6yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl overall. The defense has gotten a little better as they now allow just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr but 6.8yps against 6.4yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Miami has done a great job on offense this year gaining 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. Numbers indicate Miami is 0.8yppl better than NE on offense and 0.2yppl better on defense. Remember Miami also throttled NE earlier in the year up in NE. Yet, this line is just a pick ‘em, which makes absolutely no sense. NE does qualify in my turnover table, which is 393-250-18. Miami qualifies in rushing situations, which are 206-12-15 and 282-195-21. Numbers favor Miami by a whopping nine points and predict about 33 points. I will lay off this game despite the line value because I do respect the turnover table, which favors NE but I lean towards Miami. MIAMI 20 NEW ENGLAND 17
DALLAS –10.5 San Francisco 46.5
Cowboys gutted one out last week at Washington in defeating the Redskins 14-10. They out gained Washington 5.7yppl to 4.1yppl, including out passing Washington 7.3yps to 3.6yps. They were out rushed by Washington 5.1ypr to 4.2ypr but did gain more rushing yards than Washington. SF defeated St. Louis 35-16 but led 35-3 at halftime before cruising to a second half victory. They out gained the Rams 5.7yppl to 5.1yppl, including out passing them 8.7yps to 4.9yps. They were out rushed 5.5ypr to 3.8ypr. Those yppl numbers are really much worse for the Rams when you consider they threw the ball 34 more times than SF and SF rushed the ball 13 more times than the Rams. Knowing passing yards are generally higher per attempt than rushing yards the numbers end up a little skewed for both teams when the Rams are only throwing in the second half and the 49ers are only running in the second half. SF is still a below average offense but with Mike Singletary now coaching the team he has added a level of focus and fundamentals that were not present before he became the coach. He wants to run the ball, which will reduce the sacks taken by his quarterback, which improves the overall passing and yards per play numbers and reduces turnovers. It also shortens the game, which ultimately improves their chances to cover as they continue to get a large number of points against slightly better than average teams. There is enough talent on the 49ers for Singletary to make a difference and Shaun Hill at quarterback helps the passing game as well. SF averages just 6.1yps against 6.6yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl overall. They do average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr. On defense they have been pretty good, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. If they are able to continue to rush the ball more and limit the sacks and turnovers, their defense should also continue to improve. The Cowboys average 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.7yps against 5.9yps and 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl overall. On defense they are allowing just 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 10.5 points and predict about 51 points. I would consider the over in this game but Singletary wants to run the ball when he can. Against a better team like Dallas I believe he will want to control the clock if possible. Also, with Tony Romo still healing with his injury I don’t believe they will ask him to pass more than he has to. If they do get a big lead I have to believe they will run the ball if they can. DALLAS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 23
Tampa Bay –8 DETROIT 42
TB defeated Minnesota last week and although the game was close they dominated the Vikings in the stats. They out gained Minnesota 5.7yppl to 4.0yppl, including out passing them 8.2yps to 4.3yps. Detroit lost at Carolina in a somewhat close game scoring wise, 31-22 (was 24-22 late in the game), but they were badly out gained in the stats. They were out gained 7.1yppl to 4.4yppl, including being out passed 5.2yps to 4.9yps and out rushed 8.3ypr to 3.8ypr. Those yppl numbers are even more staggering when you consider Detroit threw 19 more passes than Carolina. For the season TB averages 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl and allows just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. Detroit averages just 5.4yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow an atrocious 5.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit qualifies in their usual winless team situation, which is 76-30-6. The Lions are currently 3-2 in that situation this year. They also qualify in my turnover table, which is 393-250-18. If this line were –7 or less TB would qualify in a strong rushing situation. Numbers favor TB by 6.5 points and predict about 39 points. I will lean towards Detroit simply because of the situations but I can’t take a team that plays as bad of defense as Detroit especially when they are playing a tough physical defense like TB. TAMPA BAY 23 DETROIT 16
BALTIMORE –1 Philadelphia 39
Ravens were beaten up pretty badly by the Giants last week. They were out gained 6.3ypr to 4.7ypr, 6.1yps to 4.5yps and 6.2yppl against 4.6yppl. Philly dominated Cincinnati at the line of scrimmage but managed just a tie at the end of the day. They out rushed Cincinnati 3.8ypr to 1.9ypr, out passed them 5.4yps to 4.3yps and 5.0yppl to 3.4yppl overall. But, four Philly turnovers and a –3 in turnover margin did them in. Philly averages 6.6yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They allow just 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 5.7yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Baltimore averages just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They are allowing just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl overall. Baltimore qualifies in rushing situations, which are 206-12-15 and 282-195-21. Numbers favor Baltimore by ½ points and predict about 43 points. Philly has played two .500 or better teams on the road this year and lost both games by four points (Dallas and Chicago). Baltimore hasn’t been home since Oct. 26th. In their four home games this year, they have allowed 10 points three times and 13 points in the fourth game. None of those teams are the Philadelphia Eagles on offense but the Ravens defense is tough at home. I like the Ravens, coming back home, laying a short number in good rushing situations. BALTIMORE 24 PHILDELPHIA 16
Chicago –7.5 ST LOUIS 43.5
The Bears were destroyed in GB last week 37-3. They were out gained 6.3yppl to 4.3yppl, including being out rushed 5.3ypr to 4.2ypr and out passed 7.6yps to 4.4yps. The Rams were destroyed as well, in SF, losing 35-16 and they were down 35-3 at halftime. They were out gained 5.7yppl to 5.1yppl but those numbers are actually much worse when you consider the Rams threw the ball 34 more times than the 49ers. The 49ers out passed the Rams 8.7yps to 4.9yps. For the season the Bears are becoming more average on offense. They rush for just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr despite the nice season by rookie Matt Forte. Overall on offense they average 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they are allowing 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. The Rams are just brutal, averaging just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense is much worse, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.8yps against 6.3yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. St. Louis qualifies in my turnover table, which is 393-250-18. If this line –7 or less Chicago would qualify in a strong rushing situation. Numbers favor Chicago by 9.5 points and predict about 48 points. Much like Detroit I can’t bet on a team as bad as the Rams. In their case I can’t even lean with them. Other than the Dallas game (No Tony Romo) the Rams have allowed at least 31 points in every home game. Other than the Cowboy game, St. Louis has failed to score more than 19 points in a game. In their game against Washington where they scored 19 points they returned a fumble for a touchdown. I will lean towards the over but I can’t trust the Rams to do their part to get to the over, especially against a Bears defense, which is smarting after being blown out last week. CHICAGO 30 ST LOUIS 16
JACKSONVILLE –2.5 Minnesota 40.5
Both teams were beaten pretty badly last week although the scores were fairly close. Minnesota lost at TB but were out gained 5.7yppl to 4.0yppl, including being out passed 8.2yps to 4.3yps against a below average TB passing offense. Jacksonville jumped out to a 14-3 halftime lead but were out scored 21-0 in the second half and were out gained 6.0yppl to 3.9yppl, including being out passed 9.6yps to just 3.4yps. For the season, Minnesota is about average on offense. They rush for 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr but pass for just 5.7yps against 5.9yps. Total is 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense Minnesota allows 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Jacksonville averages 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 4.3ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. Minnesota brings a slightly better offense and a much better defense against a Jacksonville team that has been beaten up by injuries this year. Jacksonville’s four wins this year have come against three very poor defensive teams – Houston, Denver and Detroit. They also defeated Indy but when Indy had numerous injuries. Minnesota qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 660-531-42 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Minnesota by one points and predict about 42 points. The Vikings have struggled on the road winning just one game and they were out gained in that game against the Saints but turnovers helped them. They’ve also faced some pretty decent teams on the road, however, in GB, TB, Tennessee and New Orleans. Better running game, better run defense, value and a situation in their favor pave the way for a Minnesota cover. MINNESOTA 24 JACKSONVILLE 17
ATLANTA –1 Carolina 42.5
Atlanta lost at home to Denver last week 24-20 and were out gained by the Broncos 6.3yppl to 5.4yppl. They were out rushed 5.0ypr to 3.3ypr. It wasn’t surprising to see the Broncos gain 6.3yppl because their offense is good and the Atlanta defense is below average but for Atlanta to only average 5.4yppl against a bad Denver defense is a little surprising. Carolina won by nine over Detroit but was up by just two late in the game. I am a little surprised by the score although they smoked Detroit at the line of scrimmage, out gained the Lions 7.1yppl to 4.4yppl, including out rushing them 8.3ypr to 3.8ypr. Detroit also threw the ball 19 more times yet were out gained badly on the day. Carolina averages 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.4yps against 6.4yps for a overall total of 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 5.2yps against 6.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Atlanta is averaging 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Atlanta by two points and predict about 35 points. I will lean with the better defensive team here in Carolina but it’s a weak lean at best. CAROLINA 17 ATLANTA 16
DENVER –9 Oakland 42.5
Broncos were pretty impressive overall last week at Atlanta, winning 24-20 and out gaining the Falcons, 6.3yppl to 5.4yppl, including out rushing them 5.0ypr to 3.3ypr. Oakland lost a close game at Miami but were out gained badly in that game. Miami out gained Oakland 6.4yppl to 3.9yppl, including out rushing them 6.3ypr to 3.5ypr and out passing them 6.4yps to 4.1yps. Oakland averages 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr but just 4.5yps against 6.3yps and 4.4yppl against 5.4yppl overall. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.2yps against 6.7yps for a total of 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl. Denver averages just 4.5ypr against 4.4ypr so they have been pretty average rushing the ball. They do throw the ball well, averaging 7.3yps against 6.5yps but will go against the strength of the Oakland defense with their passing game. Overall they average 6.2yppl against5.6yppl. On defense, it’s another story as they allow 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. That poor defense should give an anemic Oakland passing offense at least a chance to succeed. Denver qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 104-35-3. That situation is extremely strong and won with Denver against Atlanta last week. I passed on the situation because Atlanta qualified in their own strong situations. Numbers favor Denver by 10 points and predict about 45 points. Oakland has lost by 10 or less (or won) in seven of the last nine games played here between these two. Denver is 6-4 but has won just one game by more than four points this year. Granted that was their opening week win over Oakland in Oakland. This is simply a play on a team who is getting a lot of points against a very bad defensive team who also happens to be in a very strong letdown situation. DENVER 24 OAKLAND 23
Washington –3.5 SEATTLE 40.5
Washington looked like they may put Dallas away early last week but failed to do so and really never moved the ball against the Cowboys. The score could have been much worse if it weren’t for a couple of Cowboy turnovers. Washington was out gained 5.7yppl to 4.1yppl, including being out passed 7.3yps to 3.6yps. They did out rush Dallas 5.1ypr to 4.2ypr but were actually out gained on the ground for rushing yards. Seattle never really had a chance against a strong Arizona offense. The Seahawks, despite getting Matt Hasslebeck and Deion Branch back together could average just 2.0ypr, 4.9yps and 3.7yppl. They allowed Arizona 3.2ypr, 8.3yps and 6.5yppl. For the season, Washington averages 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Washington allows just 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.6yps against 6.4yps and 4.9yppl against 5.5yppl. Seattle averages just 4.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl overall. Those numbers should improve with Hasslebeck back but there was no indication last week they would improve based on their results against an average Cardinal defense. Seattle has really struggled on defense this year allowing 7.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Seattle qualifies in my turnover table, which is 393-250-18. They also qualify in a rushing situation, which is 283-195-21. I still can’t take them this week until I see improvement with their offense. Numbers favor Washington by just 1.5 points and predict about 33 points. Lean towards Seattle simply because of the situations and value but Washington brings the better defense and running game. WASHINGTON 17 SEATTLE 14
NY Giants –3 ARIZONA 48
Both teams manhandled their opponent last week. The Giants defeated Baltimore 30-10 and out gained them 6.2yppl to 4.6yppl, including out rushing them 6.3ypr against 4.7ypr. They also out passed them 6.1yps to 4.5yps. Arizona smoked Seattle, out gaining them 6.5yppl to 3.7yppl, including out passing them 8.3yps to 4.9yps. For the season the Giants average 5.3ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 5.2yps against 5.6yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. Arizona averages just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but 7.5yps against 6.2yps and 6.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr and should get a good test from the Giants in this game. They also allow 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Arizona qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 38-10-1 and the Giants qualify in a letdown situation, which plays against them here and is 75-32-7. The Giants do, however, qualify in a strong fundamental rushing situation, which is 660-531-42, including a subset, which is 530-402-30. Numbers favor the Giants by 3.5 points and predict about 55 points. I don’t quite have enough to play this over and the number is a little higher than I like to play on an over play but I will lean that way as well as with the home team. NY GIANTS 28 ARIZONA 27
SAN DIEGO –3 Indianapolis 49.5
SD lost a close game at Pittsburgh last week, 11-10 but they were badly out gained in that game. The Chargers were out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed 6.4yps to 5.3yps and out gained 5.6yppl to 4.3yppl overall. I’m not sure how SD managed to stay this close in the game knowing they also were –2 in turnover margin. Indy defeated Houston but were also badly out gained in their game. They allowed to Houston to rush for 7.1ypr to just 4.5ypr for Indy. They were out passed 9.0yps to 7.0yps and 7.9yppl to 5.9yppl overall. Indy averages just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr but 6.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl overall. SD averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.8yps against 6.2yps and 6.1yppl against 5.3yppl overall. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. SD qualifies in my turnover table, which is 393-250-18. Numbers favor SD by four points and predict about 48 points. I don’t have a strong opinion on this game. The situation favors SD as does the value but I don’t think they are the better team in this game. I will call this where my line has it as a weak lean. SAN DIEGO 27 INDIANAPOLIS 23
NEW ORLEANS –2.5 Green Bay 51.5
Packers destroyed Chicago last week 37-3 and out gained the Bears 6.3yppl to 4.3yppl. Most surprising in that game was they rushed for 200 yards at 5.3ypr and held the Bears to just 4.3ypr. They also out passed Chicago 7.6yps to 4.4yps. The Saints went to KC and defeated the Chiefs 30-20, out gaining them 5.8yppl to 5.0yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 4.9yps. They were out rushed in the game 5.2ypr to 3.7ypr. For the season, the Packers are now average rushing the ball, averaging 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr. But, they average 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.1ypr but the Saints don’t rush the ball well, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr. GB allows just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and is getting better and healthier in the secondary. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall. The Saints average 7.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. On defense they allow 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. NO qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. Both teams actually qualify in a scheduling situation as long as this line is less than three points. If it is three points or higher, the Saints would not qualify. That situation is 65-25-2. The Saints also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 114-47-8. Numbers favor the Saints by just 1.5 points and predict about 57 points. The Saints are just 1-5 SU this year against .500 or better teams. The Packers are 3-5 SU in the same role but three of those five losses were by three points or less. The situations favoring GB are a little stronger as is the value. I have gone against GB three weeks in a row now and lost each of those weeks, although the Packers lost two of those three games but still managed to cover the spread. The Packers strength is their pass defense and throwing the ball. That matches up well against the Saints. Also, GB seems to have gained some momentum last week with their victory over the Bears and with their health getting better this is a good spot for them here. Total is a little too high for me to bite on the over. GREEN BAY 33 NEW ORLEANS 27
BEST BETS
YTD 38-20-1 +48.00%
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3% BALTIMORE –1
3% MINNESOTA +2.5
3% OAKLAND +9
3% GREEN BAY +2.5
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