poppopt check your messages please
Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
Oakland (+9.5) 20 DENVER 21
The Broncos are 6-4 after consecutive upset win at Atlanta and at Cleveland, but Denver is actually a below average team that is due for a letdown against a Raiders squad that is back to playing competitively thanks to a resurgent defense. The Raiders’ release of starting CB DeAngelo Hall a few weeks ago was primarily a move to save money, but the Raiders’ coaching staff also knew that Hall had been struggling in defensive coordinator Rob Ryan’s man-to-man coverage packages (Hall had always been a cover-2 corner). Hall was unmercifully picked on, as opposing quarterback steered clear of All-Pro CB Nhamdi Asomugha on the other side of the field. Asomugha routinely shuts down the opposing team’s #1 receiver, but Hall was victimized for 552 yards on 66 passes thrown to the receiver he was covering (8.4 ypa). New starting CB Chris Johnson is doing a better job opposite Asomugha and the Raiders have allowed just 4.1 yards per pass play and 17 points in each of the 2 games since Hall was released. Oakland still can’t stop the run, but the Raiders’ overall defense is a bit better than average. Denver’s offense is well above average, but that unit should be slowed a bit without Hall to pick on this time around (#2 WR Eddie Royal had 146 yards on 9 catches going mostly against Hall in week 1). Denver’s defense is also improved in recent weeks after injuries forced some changes in the starting lineup, but the Broncos are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL (6.1 yppl allowed) and the Raiders should be able to get their rushing attack going against a bad Denver run defense (5.1 ypr allowed), especially with Darrin McFadden finally healthy enough to contribute again after looking good early in the season (354 yards at 5.1 ypr). My math model favors Denver by just 6 ½ points in this game and the Broncos apply to a very negative 1-26-1 ATS subset of a 70-143-3 ATS letdown situation. Denver also applies to a negative 38-86-2 ATS big favorite letdown situation and the Broncos are now 7-28 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points the week after a victory, including 7 consecutive spread losses (0-3 ATS this season). Denver’s bad defense makes them a risky proposition as a favorite and the Broncos are 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite of more than 3 points. Denver is also just 3-15 ATS as a home favorite the last 3 seasons. I’ll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more and for 2-Stars at +7 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
SAN DIEGO (-2.5) 28 Indianapolis 18
The Chargers have been a disappointing team so far this season, but they should play well at home against a Colts team that is in a bad situation. Indianapolis applies to a negative 39-93-3 ATS situation and a completely independent 35-87-4 ATS situation (those angles have only intersected once). I went against Indianapolis last week for a winner with Houston plus the points and the Colts were out-gained 6.0 yards per play to 7.9 yppl by the Texans. Indy is just mediocre defensively this season and their offense has averaged a modest 5.2 yppl and is only 0.3 yppl better than average if I exclude their season opener at Chicago when Peyton Manning was obviously rusty. San Diego has out-gained their opponents 6.1 yppl to 5.7 yppl and the Chargers rate at 0.8 yppl better than average on offense and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively and they should out-play the Colts from the line of scrimmage in this game. My math model favors the Chargers by 4 points in this game and San Diego tends to play especially well at home, as they are 23-4-1 ATS in their last 28 regular season home games when not favored by more than 11 points (they tend to letdown against very bad teams). The Chargers beat the Colts twice last season and they should do so again given the favorable situation and strong home field advantage. I’ll take San Diego in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 points (up to -1.15 odds).
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
NFL POWER PLAY MONEY IN THE BANK WINNER
Atlanta "pick"
JEFFERSONSPORTS
NCAA HOOPS
PORTLAND +1
KBHOOPS
10* NFL Game of the Month SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -2.5
5* Oakland Raiders +9 -120
5* Jacksonville ML -120
5* Atlanta ML -110
NBA
5* Sacramento +17
Iceman
3* NJ Devils -110
any NSA late play ? Thanks 🙂
Dave Malinsky
4* UConn/SFlorida Under 49
Las Vegas Sport Picks
4* UCONN -4
5* Illinois State/SMU over 127
5* Wisconsin -5
5* Lakers/Kings over 208
6* Timberwolves/Pistons under 188