SUNDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

DR BOB

4 Star Selection San Francisco (+6.5) 24 BUFFALO 21*

The 49ers were more competitive against the Cowboys last week than the 22-35 score indicates, as San Francisco averaged 5.9 yards per play while allowing 6.2 yppl. The problem was an inability to cash in on a couple of scoring opportunities early in the game, when the Niners twice settled for field goals after having the ball 1st down and goal from the 4 yard line both times. The 49ers have been out-scored by 5.3 points per game despite out-gaining their opponents 5.5 yppl to 5.4 yppl because of a -13 in turnover margin. However, new quarterback Shaun Hill is much less likely to turn the ball over (4 turnovers in 3 ½ games) than former starter J.T. O’Sullivan was (17 turnovers in 7 ½ games) was and the Niners are a better than average team if they can be even in turnovers. Not only does Hill not turn the ball over, but he also doesn’t take sacks at the rate O’Sullivan did (Hill sacked just 6.5% of pass plays while O’Sullivan was sacked on 12.7% of his pass plays), which enables Hill to keep more drives going. Hill has averaged 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback, and I rate the Niners’ attack at 0.5 yppl better than average with Hill combining with Frank Gore (4.5 ypr) in a balanced attack. The 49ers’ defense is 0.1 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and the Niners are better on both sides of the ball than a Buffalo squad that is 0.1 yppl worse than average on offense (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). Buffalo’s defense has been even worse without top DL Aaron Schobel, nickel back Ashton Youboty and more recently star SS Donte Whitner and CB Jabari Greer. Schobel and Youboty have been out since week 7 and Whitner and Greer missed last week’s game and are both listed as questionable this week. The Bills allowed Kansas City to rack up 8.1 yppl last week without those 4 key players and the Bills defense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively since week 7. Buffalo does have an edge in special teams, especially if Niners’ kick and punt return man Allen Rossum does not play (he’s questionable with a sprained ankle), but my math model favors San Francisco by ½ a point in this game even if I assume Rossum will not play. San Franicsco’s problems in the red-zone last week were certainly not an isolated incident, as scoring touchdowns when they get close to the goal line has been a problem all season. My other math model takes scoring efficiency into account and that model favors Buffalo by 3 ½ points – so there is still a lot of line value on the side of the Niners in this game even if they continue to have problems in the red zone (although it’s likely they won’t be as bad as they’ve been in that area). In addition to the line value, Buffalo applies to a negative 29-72-2 ATS letdown situation and a 40-93-1 ATS statistical indicator that plays against favorites that have been struggling defensively (that makes sense). If the true line on this game is Bills by 3 ½ points (that’s a worst case scenario) then San Francisco would have a 58% chance of covering at +6 ½ points without factoring in the positive situations, which give the 49ers a 63% chance of covering when factored in. I’ll take San Francisco in a 4-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 3-Stars from +5 ½ to +4 points (2-Stars at +3 ½ or +3).

2 Star Selection TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 30 New Orleans 19*

New Orleans sure looked unstoppable offensively in Monday Night’s 51-29 win over Green Bay, but what goes up must come down and it’s tough to play at such a high level in consecutive weeks – especially when playing on the road. Drew Brees and company have scored more than 35 points on 3 other occasions in 3 years and the Saints are 0-3 straight up and 0-3 ATS in their next game after their offensive outburst while averaging just 19.7 points in those games. The average line on those games was -6 ½ points and the average spread loss was by 16 points. I’m not basing this bet on those 3 games, but I thought I’d start by convincing you that the ease at which the Saints scored last week has no bearing on this game. In general, road teams are just 69-104-6 ATS when not getting more than 4 points against a winning team the week after scoring 35 points or more in a victory, so high scoring wins are usually followed by poor outings when visiting a good team and not getting too many points. The Saints also apply to a 28-75-2 ATS road letdown situation while Tampa Bay applies to a 79-32-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. My math model favors the Buccaneers by 5 ½ points with Reggie Bush expected back for the Saints. I mentioned last week that Bush makes no difference offensively, but he has returned 3 punts for touchdowns this season in just 6 ½ games. If Bush doesn’t play, or doesn’t return punts, then I’d favor the Bucs by even more. Of course, Tampa Bay now has their own special teams weapon in rookie Clifton Smith, who in just 4 games has already returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns. I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less (at -1.15 odds or better).

3 Star Selection Carolina (+3) 25 GREEN BAY 19*

Carolina was whipped 28-45 at Atlanta last week, but the Panthers have played well following their other two losses this season – winning 24-9 at home against the Falcons and beating New Orleans 30-7 – and they qualify in a very strong 40-7 ATS subset of a 70-21-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. The Panthers are also a better team than Green Bay. Carolina’s offense has averaged 5.7 yards per play in 9 games with star WR Steve Smith available to play (he was suspended the first two weeks) and they rate at 0.2 yppl better than average after compensating for their easier than normal opposing defenses faced. Green Bay is just average defensively, as their ability to defend the pass is balanced out by their inability to stop the run (5.0 ypr allowed). Carolina’s edge is even greater when the Packers have the ball, as the Panthers have been 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) while the Packers are only 0.1 yppl better than average on offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl). Green Bay does have a 1.3 points advantage in projected turnovers and a 0.7 points edge in special teams, but my math model picks this game even while my other model favors Green Bay by 1 ½ points. Either way, we have value to go along with a very good situation and I’ll take Carolina in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better) and for 2-Stars down to +1.

2 Star Selection WASHINGTON (+3.5) 21 NY Giants 17*

New York is now 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games away from home, but that team trend is not more significant than the negative 27-77-3 ATS general situation that applies to the Giants in this game. Washington, meanwhile, applies to a solid 201-120-6 ATS situation, a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator and a 78-33-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Washington also has what it takes to stage an upset, as the Redskins have a very good rushing attack, a quarterback that takes care of the ball (just 3 interceptions this season) and a defense that ranks among the best in the NFL – especially with CB Shawn Springs returning last week. Springs looked good last week against the Seahawks, breaking up 2 passes, and his presence makes it very tough on opponents to throw against the Redskins. Washington has allowed just 5.5 yards per pass play this season to a schedule of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defense and they have been even better defending the pass in the 5 games that Springs has played. In those 5 games (weeks 2, 3, 4, 6, and 12) the Redskins have yielded 5.4 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.1 yppp against an average defense (that includes games against Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Kurt Warner). Washington also defends the run well (4.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.3 ypr against an average team) and the Redskins are 1.0 yppl better than average defensively, giving them a 0.3 yppl edge over the Giants’ offense (which is 0.7 yppl better than average). The Giants’ defense is only 0.3 yppl better than average for the season, but they had one horrendous game at Cleveland that has skewed their stats and I rate them at 0.6 yppl better than average using a median rating rather than their average rating. Washington is 0.1 yppl better than average offensively thanks to their strong rushing attack, so New York has a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Redskins’ offense – which is just 0.2 yppl more than Washington’s edge over the Giants’ attack. These teams are very close from the line of scrimmage and my math model favors New York by just 1 ½ points. The strong technical analysis favoring Washington is worthy of a 3-Star Best Bet, but New York’s recent history away from home will cause me to downgrade this game. I’ll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (at -1.15 odds or better).

Spylock

3 units Atlanta
3 units Pittsburgh
1 unit Baltimore
1 unit Giants
1 unit Jets

Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections

ANOTHER NFL POWER PLAY CRUSHER
San Francisco +7

Wunderdog

Indianapolis at Cleveland
5 units Cleveland +4.5

Everyone is beginning to sing the praises of the Colts again as they have won four straight games and Peyton Manning and company are back in business. I'm not as sold yet. Jeff Saturday won't be on the field again this week and we have seen the Colts struggle without him (Peyton Manning himself said Saturday is the single player he most misses). The Colts are winning games, but they have had just one big win all season. They blasted the Ravens at home 31-10. The Colts' six other wins on the season were nailbiters. They beat New England at home by 3, Houston at home by 6, Minnesota on the road by 3 in a miralce finish, Houston on the road by 4 in another miracle finish, Pittsburgh by 4, and last week on the road at San Diego by 4. They have recorded exactly one win by more than 6 points, and five of their seven wins have come by 4 points or less. This team is a few plays away from a 1-10 record. That is how tight their games have been, except the losses. Three of the four Colts losses have been by double digits (10, 16 and 20 points). They sit as a 7-4 team that has only outscored the opponent by a total of 3 points the entire season. And here they enter a potential letdown game. Their confidence is likely (mistakenly) quite high and after games vs. New England, Pittsburgh, Houston and San Diego, how can they get up for the Browns? Most think of the Browns as a deficient team. But, this is a Browns team that has already defeated Pittsburgh and the Giants at home this season, and although they look ugly at times on defense, they seem to step up against the bigger teams at home. Their game against the Ravens showed them with a lead of 27-13 in the 3rd quarter before coughing it up. Only a pick-6 kept that one from ending in a 3 point loss. The Browns have shown enough to play big here in this spot, while the Colts margin of error is very small. Nine of the eleven Colts games have had them failing to cover this margin. I like the Brownies here.

Carolina at Green Bay
3 units Carolina +3
3 units OVER 42

The Green Bay Packers are a seductive team. Aaron Rodgers has had a Brett Favre type season, the WR core is talented, Ryan Grant is running the ball better now that he is healthy, but somehow this team keeps losing. They are now 5-6 on the season, and their playoff hopes are on life support. This is a team that won their opening two games of the season, but has gone 3-6 since. Tha Panthers come in as the least talked about 8-3 team in the league. They don't have the glamorous running back, or the high profile QB, but they keep getting it done week after week. Coming off a loss is the perfect spot for them now. This team is big-time because they have found a top flite running back in DeAngelo Williams who is pounding out over 5 ypc. He should find plenty of room running on the Packer front seven as they are allowing 4.8 ypc and 143 yards per game. Steve Smith should find a lot of room to roam in the Packer secondary that was torched time after time last week in New Orleans. The Packers have been able to move the ball well enough and score, but other than the Bears game where they played well, they have allowed 25 or more points in over half their games on defense this season. Good offense, with an exploitable defense equals losses in the NFL, and that is why the Packers find themselves at 5-6. The Packers should get their points here, but not enough to overcome their defensive deficiencies. I like the Panthers here to seal the Packers playoff fate, and for this one to go OVER the total as well.

San Francisco at Buffalo
5 units San Francisco +6.5

I think by now everyone saw the meltdown by Mike Singletary after his first game taking over this team. The fact is his team was playing heartless and soft, and he called some players out, and the Niners are now playing hard for him. Buffalo is off of a big win in Kansas City, at least in the eyes of the public. But how quickly people forget. This is a team that dropped four straight before their win in Kansas City last week. What they did last week was beat a team that has been 1-19 in their last 20 regular season games, so using that game as a marker for a team to have turned things around would be a big mistake. They gave up 31 points to a team that only surpassed that mark in a game against Denver, one of the worst defensive teams in the league. The win doesn't make up for the fact that this once 5-1 team that was allowing 19.6 ppg, has now gone 1-4 allowing 26.2 ppg. They have defensive issues, and have only gotten to the QB 18 times all season. Just remember Oakland got 23 on this team, Kansas City just got 31, and Cleveland posted 29. The Niners have hung tough on the road at Arizona, who has been blowing everyone out at home. They crushed St. Louis on the road, and matched Dallas first down for first down, with 16 apiece. Buffalo should not be a hefty chalk here, and I'll back the Niners with the points.

Denver at New York Jets
4 units UNDER 47.5

The Broncos have been thought of all season long as an offensive giant, but the reality is they only started that way, and that image has lasted all the way past Thanksgiving. The offense was excellent, averaging 38 ppg offense in the first three weeks of the season. But, it has been replaced by one that has averaged 18 ppg in the last eight weeks! The fact is, for half a seson now, the Denver offense has been below the NFL average in points per game! The Jets defense is much better than advertised. Some of the numbers, especially points allowed, are deceiving. They allowed 35 to Arizona, but led the game 34-0 and basically played soft the rest of the game. Since that game, five of seven opponents have scored 17 or less. The Jets may be all about Favre in the press, but what has gone unnoticed is that Thomas Jones has rushed for 950 yards already. And Leon Washington is an emerging star with his speed, having contributed 322 yards on 5.5 ypc. The Jets are toning down Brett Favre, and the Broncos can't stop the run. It is likely to see the Jets pound the ball all game long, and shorten the game. The Broncos offense is struggling, and the Jets defense has been big, and I expect this one to go UNDER the total.

Atlanta at San Diego
4 units UNDER 49

The Chargers are still thought of and hearalded as a great offensive team. Their is a solid QB, big name running back and tight end, and a cast of recievers that rank right up their as one of the NFL's best. It just isn't translating on the field. The Chargers have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games, averaging just 19.4 ppg in the most recent seven. Suddenly, this team has become defensive. They have held five of the last eight opponents to under 20 points a gam. Atlanta has had a lot of success pounding the ball this season. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,000 yards already and he is complimented by Jarius Norwood who has contributed almost 400 more. While the Falcons have been highly explosive at home where they have averaged 32.2 ppg, their offense on the road has been more like a cap gun, averaging just 16.6ppg. On the surface, this game looks like one that could light up the scoreboard. But the statistical reality is, those are false signs and this number is attractively inflated.

RON RAYMOND

5* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Washington Redskins +3.5

Pointwise Phone Plays

3* Baltimore
3* Kansas City
3* Denver
2* Miami
2* NY Giants
2* Jacksonville

Brandon Lang

25 Dime Giants
(if your man has 4-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 4. If your man has 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 3)

5 Dime 6-Point Teaser - Bills and Over

Free – Steelers

Larry Ness

9* NFL Total G.O.M (16-6 s/'03)

Pittsburgh/New England OVER

NFL Divisional 9* (11-4 in Nov)

TB Bucs

Primetime Sports Advisors

10 units New England -1
10 units Indianapolis -4.5
10 units NY Giants -3 (-120)

DOC

4 Unit Play.Take New England Patriots -1 over Pittsburgh Steelers

3 Unit Play.Take Denver Broncos +7½ over New York Jets

3 Unit Play.Take Over 48 in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texas

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NHL:

1* Rangers -1.5 +130

NBA:

2* Pistons -3

NFL:

2* Tampa Bay Bucs -4
2* Steelers +1
2* Chiefs/Raiders over 41
2* Broncos/Jets over 47
3* Packers -3
3* Steelers/Patriots over 39

Brian Edwards's Pick Pack
NFL Season Package

Vegasinsider.com

Premium Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Over (35.0 -110)
Posted on: November 28, 2008 @ 3:00:15 AM EST
The 'over' is 5-0-1 in Baltimore's last six games. The 'over' is 4-1-1 for the Ravens in their six home games. Cincy moved the ball fairly well against Pittsburgh last week, but only came up with 10 points. Getting Chad Johnson back into the lineup after serving a one-game suspension should give the offense a lift. Low total here so it's not like we need to see a shoot-out. If the weather.com forecast on Thursday proves accurate, we should be ok on weather. It'll be cold and might snow later in the game, but little wind is expected and that's the only thing I worry about weather-wise when it comes to backing an 'over.'

Matchup: Carolina at Green Bay
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Green Bay (-3.0 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: November 29, 2008 @ 6:53:05 AM EST
Green Bay has won its last two home games in blowout fashion over the Bears (37-3) and Colts (34-14). I don't know that the Pack are going to run away and hide from the Panthers early and often, but I'm confident they'll cover this short number at Lambeau Field. The Panthers have lost three straight road games as underdogs, including last week's 45-28 pounding from the Falcons in Atlanta. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme struggling all of a sudden and I could see Charles Woodson getting a pick this week. Give me Green Bay.

Matchup: Atlanta at San Diego
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Atlanta (+5 -110)
Line Source: PALMS
Posted on: November 29, 2008 @ 2:39:09 AM EST
San Diego has won by more than five points just three times in 11 games this season. The Chargers haven't won by more than one point in five consecutive outings. The Falcons, meanwhile, have been beaten by more than four points just once in their last seven games. They dealt out woodshed treatment to Oakland in their last trip to the West coast. Matt Ryan continues to steadily improve and there's no reason to think he's not poised for another big outing here. Remember, he has 220 passing yards or more in six straight games. Atlanta RB Michael Turner, fresh off a four-TD performance against Carolina last week, will be hyped to play well against his former team. I think the Falcons, who are 7-4, have a great shot to win outright against the Chargers, who are 4-7. Therefore, I'll gladly take the points and the underdog in this matchup.

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: San Fran. at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)

Play: Over (42.0 -110)
Posted on: November 28, 2008 @ 3:09:09 AM EST
The 'over' is on a 6-1-1 run in San Francisco's last eight games. The 49ers have seen the 'over' go 3-1-1 in their road games, while Buffalo has also seen the 'over' go 3-1-1 in its home outings. San Francisco's defense has given up at least 29 points in seven of its last eight games. Buffalo has seen the 'over' cash in back-to-back games thanks to scoring ouputs of 54 and 27 by the Bills alone.

BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. I successfully played on the Giants when they hosted the Redskins way back on opening night. The champs won that game and have been on an impressive run ever since. I believe that this will prove to be an extremely tough spot for them though, as they played at Arizona last week and this marks the only time all season that they will play the second of back to back road games. Making matters tougher, the Giants' offense will be without one of its stars, as Plaxico Burress is out. The Redskins desperately need a victory here and they'll be extremely motivated to get one. In addition to the fact the Giants defeated them earlier and are a hated division rival (not to mention SB champs) the Redskins will also be motivated by the fact that this is the anniversary of Sean Taylor's death. I'll take the points but I look for an inspired effort by the revenge-minded Skins and for them to hand the Giants just their second loss of the season.

I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND. I successfully played against the Browns last week, feeling that they were in a difficult spot to be laying points. They've been significantly better when playing "good" teams and getting points though. Getting more than a field goal to work with, I feel that they're now providing us with strong line value. Keep in mind that the Browns were the only team to defeat Eli Manning the Giants this season. Including that victory and they're recent win at Buffalo, the Browns are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range and 12-6-1 ATS their last 19 in that role. They're also 12-3 ATS their last 15 against teams with a winning record. Conversely, the Colts, who will be missing a couple of important offensive linemen, are just 4-9 ATS the last 13 times that they faced a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS the last six times they were laying points. Note that the Colts, who played on the West Coast last week, lost by double-digits the last time that they played the second of back to back road games. Look for Anderson's return to provide a spark as the Browns continue their strong play against winning teams.

I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. What a difference a few months makes. These teams faced each other at Baltimore back in September. Despite playing on the road, the Bengals were actually favored by a couple of points for that game. Now, they're playing at home, yet getting a touchdown to work with. I feel that provides us with excellent line value. Yes, the Bengals were beaten badly by Pittsburgh last time out. That's been happening for years though. Prior to that, they had played two of their better games all season, tying Philadelphia and winning outright at Jacksonville. Note that the Pittsburgh game came on a Thursday, giving the Bengals, who are still 3-1 their last four vs. the Ravens, a couple of extra days of preparation time. While the Bengals are a divisional rival, the Ravens could easily overlook them here. That's because they're coming off back to back games against top tier teams (Giants, Eagles) from the NFC East and because they've got a big primetime on deck. The Ravens are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were road favorites on -3.5 to -7 points. Looking back further and we find them at just 3-9 ATS the last 12 times they were in that role. Expect them to have their hands full with the revenge-minded Bengals here.

I'm playing on Chicago and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. These teams played a very high-scoring game against each other at Chicago six weeks ago. I expect a significantly lower-scoring contest this evening. The Vikings had previously been throwing the ball a lot but have gotten back to running the ball more frequently in recent weeks. In fact, in their last four games the Vikings have averaged just 21.5 pass attempts while running the ball an average of 34 times per game during that stretch. Of course, with rookie Matt Forte in the fold, the Bears also like to feature a heavy dose of the ground game. As you know, frequent run plays help to keep the clock moving. Both defenses are excellent against the run though and both are stout overall. The Vikings are allowing just 17.2 points and 262 total yards per game at home. Averaging only 20.6 points themselves, they've seen three of five games here dip below the number. As for the Bears, they're allowing an average of only 17 points and 282.8 total yards per game on the road. Averaging 21.7 points per game on the road, they've seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 away from Chicago. These teams also played a high-scoring game at Chicago last season. However, when they faced each other here at the Metrodome, they combined for only 33 points. When the teams faced each other here in 2006, they combined for 35 points. Look for tonight's game to be lower-scoring than most are expecting once again. *blue chip

igz1 sports

NFL
5* Over 42.5 (-110) San Francisco vs Buffalo (Totals GOY !)
4* N.Y. Giants -3.5 (-110)
4* Over 41 (-110) Chicago vs Minnesota
3* Denver +9 (-110)
3* Pittsburgh +1 (-110)
3* Over 44.5 (-110) Indianapolis vs Cleveland
3* Over 41.5 (-110) Carolina vs Green Bay