GameBreaker
Baltimore / Washington
5* Pick Washington +5
Huge game for Washington and I have no doubt they'll be the stronger motivated team. Washington has shown alot of character down the stretch in recent seasons and this is another gut check. They have enough D to be competitive and Portis is expected to play. On the other side, Baltimore is in a more comfortable position and have the biggest game of the season on deck vs the Steelers. Coouldn't blame them if they have less than 100% focus on the 'Skins. Projected weather looks less than ideal and that helps even things out for the dog, especially getting more than 4. Take Washington +5 for a 5* Top Play.
NY Giants / Philadelphia
Pick 3* Philadelphia +6.5
Philadelphia is definitely a motivated team and a live dog. McNabb and Westbrook are coming on and the team has it's confidence back. This is a group that knows what big games are all about and have a playmaking D. Quite a line move from -9 to -6.5 in spite of the fact almost 70% of all bets are on the Giants. Big/smart money is definitely on Philly and I agree. The weather could also make it tougher for the Giants to cover the generous points. Take Philadelphia +6.5 for a 3* play.
Ron Raymond
5* Miami Dolphins +1
5* Eagles / Giants Under 42.5
NFL Blowout Game of the Week
Green Bay Packers -6
Spylock
1 unit each
Green Bay
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Smart Betting Systems
Top Play Dallas
Pointwise Phone Plays
4* New England
3* Green Bay
3* New Orleans
3* NY Jets
3* Arizona
3* NY Giants
2* Carolina(Mon)
Tom Stryker
11-0 ATS NFL Blowout of the Week
NEW ENGLAND (-) over Seattle
Pro Sports Plays
10* Buffalo
5* Giants
5* Ravens
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. The Ravens (8-4) have been playing well and have a better record than the Redskins, who are 7-5. However, lets not forget that the Raven play in a division which includes Cincinnati and Cleveland and that they've gone 4-0 against those teams. On the other hand, the Redskins have no "easy" opponents in their division. As a result, one could easily argue that their 7-5 record is every bit as good as Baltimore's 8-4 one, particularly when noting that Baltimore is just 2-4 against teams with winning records. The Redskins have been at their best away from home this season. Indeed, they've won four of their five road games with the lone loss coming when they visited the defending Super Bowl champion Giants. The Redskins have also long excelled as road underdogs in this range. In fact, they're a highly profitable 29-12 the last 41 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to seven range. This is a critical game for the Redskins, as they absolutely cannot afford another loss. As Clinton Portis had to say: We're not out of the playoffs. Back two weeks ago, everybody was crucifying the Cowboys. Now they're back to America's greatest team. Now we're in the same situation." Look for the Skins to deliver a huge effort as the Ravens` struggles with winning teams continue. *Main Event
UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR
I'm taking the points with the DETROIT LIONS. While not always the "popular" choice, often the best value can be found with the worst teams. Everyone saw how dismal Detroit looked on Thanksgiving Day while many saw the Vikings beat up on Chicago on Sunday night. Those results have helped provide exceptional line value with the Lions this week, as very few people are willing to play on them after that debacle. I expect Detroit, which was embarrassed by that performance and which has had an extra couple of days to prepare, to bounce back with a MUCH better effort this week. Kicker Jason Hanson spoke for the entire team when he said: "I know everybody in here feels embarrassed that we did that on national TV." The Lions played the Vikings tough at the Metrodome earlier in the season. Detroit took a lead into the fourth quarter and eventually lost by only two points, 12-10. In fact, the Lions very likely would have won that game if they hadn't been victimized by some questionable calls by the refs. After the game, Lions' cornerback Leigh Bodden was quoted as saying: "I hope we get an apology, but that's not going to get us a win. And that really took us away from getting the 'W' today." That figures to give the Lions even further motivation - not that they should need any. Even including last week's win, the Vikings are still just 1-5 ATS their last six games against divisional opponents, 1-4 ATS this season. That doesn't include a 20-17 loss the last time that they traveled to Detroit, which was early last season. Look for last week's embarrassing loss and also the earlier loss at the Metrodome to motivate the Lions, as they play their best game and give the Vikings all they can handle for the second time this season. *Underdog GOY
TOTAL OF THE MONTH
I'm playing on the Eagles and Giants to finish UNDER the total. These games were involved in a high-scoring game against each other at Philadelphia last month. That doesn't mean that this one will automatically be high-scoring though. In fact, quite often the opposite is true. We've already seen an example in an NFC East 'rematch' this season. Dallas and Washington went 'over' the total in the first meeting, combining for 50 points. However, the rematch saw the same teams combine for just 24 points. The Giants have been terrific on defense again this season, particularly here at home. In six games here, they're allowing an average of just 12.8 points and only 242 total yards. The champs have also admittedly been very strong on offense. However, not having Burress in the lineup is a big loss and this Philly defense is also more than capable. The Eagles are allowing 20.7 points per game and a mere 286.2 total yards. Last week, they limited a very high-scoring Arizona team to just 20 points. Prior to that, not including the game vs. the Giants, the Eagles had held three of four opponents to 14 points or less. Note that the Eagles have shown a tendency to play low-scoring games at this time of year in recent years. In fact, they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 in the final four weeks of the regular season the last two seasons. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 11-5 their last 16 road games played in the month of December. Including last month's result, the 'over' is now 7-3-1 the last 11 times that these teams faced each other at Philadelphia. However, the games at New York have been an entirely different matter. Last year's meeting produced only 19 points, as the Giants earned a 16-3 victory. That game was expected to be high-scoring, too, as it had an over/under line in the high 40s. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 11-3 the last 14 times that these teams faced each other at New York. On a chilly New York afternoon, look for this afternoon's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again. *Total of the Month
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm laying the points with NEW ORLEANS. The Falcons have enjoyed a great season and are arguably the best story in the NFL. That being said, this is an extremely tough spot for them. For starters, they'll be facing a talented and angry Saints team which comes in with something to prove. Not only do the Saints absolutely need a win if they want to keep their fading playoff hopes alive but they're also looking to avenge an earlier loss at Atlanta. Additionally, the Falcons are playing their second straight road game after winning on the West Coast vs. San Diego last week. Last week's victory marked the third time this season that the Falcons have won two in a row. They've gone 0-2 when trying to win their third straight though. That brings them to an awful 0-6 (SU and ATS) the last six times that they were coming off consecutive victories. They haven't won three straight since 2005. The Saints have had some trouble on the road and came up just short at Tampa last week. They're an excellent 4-1 at home though and the lone loss came in a game (Vikings on MNF) in which they dominated but beat themselves with turnovers. It's also worth noting that the Saints are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS the last eight times that they were coming off a loss vs. a division opponent. The Saints got Bush back last week and the NFL has temporarily blocked the suspensions against Deuce McAllister and the other players which the NFL had previously suspended for the use of a banned diuretic. Prior to the earlier loss at Atlanta, the Saints had won four straight against the Falcons. They won those games by an average of 16 points with all four victories coming by a minimum of a field goal. With their season hanging in the balance, look for the desperate and revenge-minded Saints to bounce back and resume their dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. Its true that the Jets have enjoyed a great season. However, they didn't look too great last week though, as they lost by double-digits vs. a banged-up Broncos team, giving up nearly 500 combined yards in the process. Now, they have to travel to the West Coast to take on a 49ers team playing with a renewed confidence. Yes, the 49ers did get outgained yardage-wise last week. However, the defense stiffened when it counted and they limited another AFC East contender (Buffalo) to a single field goal in four trips inside the red zone. That type of motivation has come along with the coaching change from Nolan to Singletary. Defensive back Donald Strickland had this to say of his new coach: "He's a great motivator, but that's just one of his strengths. Everybody in this locker room has great respect for him, and the coaching staff has kept us in position to win games. Making a coaching change in the middle of the season could have been a distraction, but everybody here has kept working hard, and (Singletary) just increased our confidence all around." This will be the third time that the Jets, who have a big divisional clash vs. Buffalo on deck, have traveled to the West Coast this season. The first time they were out here, they got crushed by the Chargers. They followed that up by losing outright at Oakland. Expect them to have their hands full once again.
I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Patriots are getting to the point where every game is a 'must win,' if they want to make the playoffs. Many can't imagine the Pats missing the playoffs and, as a result, they'll surely be a popular pick here. However, lets keep in mind that six of seven teams this millennium have missed the playoffs after losing in the Super Bowl the previous year. As you know, this year's Pats, who were blown out in the second half last week, have had to play without Tom Brady. They're also dealing with several other injuries at the moment too, though. Of course, they won't get any sympathy from the Seahawks, who have been dealing with injuries all year. Seattle is expected to be without Hasselbeck this afternoon. That's given us a couple of extra points on the line, as most bettors don't respect Seneca Wallace. However, the fact is that Hasselbeck hadn't been that good anyway and that the Seahawks actually had been playing pretty well when Wallace was previously under center. Yes, the Seahawks got blown out last week. However, that was at Dallas and there's no real shame in that. Note that their previous three losses had come by an average of only four points with none of them coming by more than six. The Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were coming off two or more consecutive losses, 11-7 ATS the last 18 times that they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to seven range and 6-4 ATS their last 10 games in December. Meanwhile, the Pats are 4-6 ATS their last 10 December games and just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they faced a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. Look for an inspired effort from the Seahawks as they step up and thrive in the spoiler role.
DOC
3 Unit Play.Take Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs
Will the Broncos be able to follow-up their impressive victory in New York with another strong showing in Denver against the Chiefs. Denver is in complete control of the AFC West with a three game lead and could wrapped it up with a victory this Sunday. The Broncos will not be looking past the Chiefs since KC got one of their two victories against them. The difference in this game is the Denver offense as they simply can outscore their way to a victory behind Cutler and company. KC cannot wait for this season to end and will likely make numerous changes in the offseason. Denver 35, Kansas City 21.
Larry Ness
NFL 25-Club (2-0 in NFL '08!)
New Orleans
Las Vegas Insider (10-2 TY)
Green Bay Packers
Larry Ness
NFL 25-Club (2-0 in NFL '08!)
New Orleans
Las Vegas Insider (10-2 TY)
Green Bay Packers
Total of the Week
15* NYJ/SF Over
Weekend Wipeout Winner
NE Pats
Prime Time Delight
15* Bal Ravens
Steve Budin
50 Dimes New Orleans
Tony Masters Guaranteed Selections
Grade A+ play on Dallas-Pittsburgh Under 39
Brian Graves Guaranteed Selections
Jets/49er's Over 44.5
The Jets defense has has struggled recently and the 49er's are a better team with Hill at QB. Favre should have a good game as the 49'er defense has struggled against the better teams, but there offense has scored points. Look at there results against Arizona, Philadelphia, New England, Dallas and the Giants. Frank Gore should have a good game for the 49'ers and Isaac Bruce has come on over the past few weeks with the insertion of Hill. It would not shock me if San Fran pulls off an uspet today but they'll need to score 30 to do it. I don't know who wins but the final here is 34-27! Good weather is expected.
Teddy Covers
20* Baltimore -5
Regular
Chiefs +9.5
Cowboys +3
Cardinals -14