Jeff Benton
30 dimer NE Patriots
10 dimer Bears
10 dimer NY Giants
Lenny Del Genio
25* Non Conference GOY - Patriots
Tony Smith
100* VIP WINNER INDIANAPOLIS -13'
100* VIP WINNER NEW ENGLAND -6'
100* VIP WINNER BALTIMORE -5
CKO
FIRST 11* RATED NFL GAME THIS YEAR
11* ARIZONA over St. Louis
*ARIZONA 38 - St. Louis 13
CKO scouts do not expect the Cardinals to be derailed a third straight game as they try to lock up their first
divisional title in 33 years! With Arizona superior to the Rams at nearly every position, look for the best the
Cardinals have after back-to-back losses vs. the NYG and at Philly on Thanksgiving. Insiders report the Arizona
players are determined to keep on winning after this week until they have secured a home playoff game at their
noisy new University of Phoenix Stadium.
Allen Eastman
$600.00 -107 Oakland (+9.5) over San Diego
$3000.00 +101 Pittsburgh (-3) over Dallas
$3000.00 -110 ‘Under’ 42.0 Cincinnati at Indianapolis
$300.00-110 48.5 Kansas City at Denver
$400.00 3-TEAM SWEETHEART TEASER:Oakland (+19.5) AND ‘Under’ 52.0 Cincinnati at Indianapolis AND ‘Over’ 38.5 Kansas City at Denver
Brian Edwards
Matchup: Atlanta at New Orleans
Play: Atlanta (ML +155)
I know New Orleans has been tough at home but other than Tampa Bay, who have the Saints beaten at home that's on the Falcons' level? Nobody. This Atlanta team is gaining confidence every week and might have the best team chemistry in the league one year after having the worst. I think Matt Ryan torches New Orleans' defense all day just like he did when these teams met in Atlanta a few weeks ago. Let's go the money-line route for the generous payout. Falcons win outright!
New York-A at San Fran.
Play: Over (44.0 -110)
The 'over' is on a 5-0-1 run for the Jets and a 6-2 surge for the 49ers, who return to California weather this week after the 'under' cashed in San Francisco's cold-weather win at Buffalo. We know the Jets can put up points and that their pass defense is very vulnerable. Shaun Hill doesn't always look smooth, but he gets the job done, as evidenced by his 8/3 TD-INT ratio. I like the 'over' here. More picks to follow, should have 4-5 up by late Friday or early Saturday.
Washington at Baltimore
Play: Over (35.0 -110)
The 'over' is on a 6-0-1 tear in Baltimore's last seven games. During that stretch, the Ravens have scored 27 points or more in six of the games with the lone exception coming at the Giants, and I grant mulligans when it comes to what the rest of the league does against the G-Men, who I say have the best team in the NFL. This is a low total that goes 'over.'
Matchup: Phila. at New York-N
Play: New York-N (-6.5 -110)
The Giants look like the best team in the NFL to me. They are nasty at home, posting a 6-0 straight-up record and a 5-1 against-the-spread mark. Even with the Plax Distrax, this team hasn't lost its focus one bit. Philly did look better in its Thanksgiving night drubbing of the Cardinals, but the Eagles are just 2-3-1 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this year. Give me the G-Men! Also, not sure if I'll back the Bears laying the 6 1/2, but I do think they are a good team to wrap up in a teaser with the Giants. In that teaser, all you need is for Chicago and New York to win outright at home.
Dallas at Pittsburgh
Play: Over (38 -110)
With Tony Romo back to 100 percent, Dallas has its offense back on track, scoring 35 and 34 points in its last two games. The 'over' is 7-5 overall for both squads, 4-2 in Pittsburgh home games. Anytime you have a number in the 30s, you're tempted to look 'over,' especially in a game in which both offenses have weapons galore like T.O., Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, etc. Let's go with the 'over.'
Bill Marzano
New England at Seattle
Play: New England (-4.5-110)
I really like the NE Patriots in this game vs the Seattle Seahawks...NE was destroyed in their last game vs Pittsburgh and I expect them to turn things around in this game...NE has not lost back to back games all year...they are still in the hunt for the Division crown and will need to beat teams like Seattle if they are going to have any chance...NE gets it done here...NE is the play
Kansas City at Denver
Play: Denver (-8.0-110)
I really like the Denver Broncos in this game even though this team has been very hard to predict...first of all I like Denver because they are @ home and KC already beat Denver in their earlier meeting this season...KC has not beat Denver in back to back games in 7 years...KC got their rare road win last week vs Oakland...Denver is riding sky high after crushing the NY Jets...look for the Broncos to pad their lead with a dominating performance offensively...Denver is the play here
Jimmy Boyd
New England at Seattle
Play: New England (-4.0-110)
Patriots -4
I love the Pats in a bounce back spot against 2-10 Seattle . New England is as resilient a team as there is in the NFL because it is not used to losing. The Pats have followed every loss with a win this season SU and ATS and I will ride this trend this week. Seattle has lost 5 in a row and is just 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS at home this season. Mike Holmgren’s Seattle teams are just 2-12 ATS vs. AFC East foes while Bill Belichick boasts a 10-1 ATS mark vs. the NFC West while with New England . Every game down the home stretch is a must-win for the Pats who trail in the division and the wild card by a game. We also have two strong system plays in favor of our side. Plays on road favorites ( NEW ENGLAND ) - good rushing team (125-150 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G) after 8+ games are 24-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plays on road teams ( NEW ENGLAND ) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 29-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, New England is 17-6 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. Pound the Pats.
Matt Fargo
83% NFL Anti-Public Shocker of the Day
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: St. Louis Rams
The Rams were competitive again last week against the Dolphins which was the first time we have seen that in five weeks. St. Louis seems to have an on/off switch as it looks really good at times and then at other times, stinks up the joint. A lot of it is focus but at the same time, a lot of it is the health of their team. Steven Jackson returned to the lineup last week and just his presence alone makes St. Louis a better team. St. Louis has been more competitive on the road of late after a dreadful 0-2 start and getting outscored 75-16.
The Cardinals have dropped two straight games and they are still getting a lot credit for being a very average 7-5 team. Those two losses came against the Giants and Eagles, both out of the NFC East so playing once again it their own division should be a cure all right? Well, not so fast as the two games prior to those two setbacks were division games against the Seahawks and 49ers and both were won by a combined 11 points. It took a last second goal line stand to take out San Francisco
With Jackson being able to run the ball, it will set Marc Bulger up to be able to pass. Arizonas uncertainty at the cornerback position has been exposed in recent weeks, as quarterbacks Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb have torched he Cardinals? secondary for a combined seven touchdowns in the last two games. Arizona?s lack of a pass rush has amplified the team?s challenges as after collecting 17 sacks in their first 12 games, the Cardinals have been held to just a pair of sacks in their last two outings.
St. Louis has two very good things on its side. First, the public is in love with this two-touchdown favorite and the Rams fall into two very powerful situations. The revenge factor is huge. Play on road teams that are revenging a loss where they scored less than 14 points and are coming off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being just -2.7 ppg against an average line of +8.7 ppg. We are catching five extra points in this line as well.
The Rams also fall into a great contrarian situation. Play on road teams after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and have won 25 percent or less of their games in the second half of the season. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -1.4 ppg on spreads that average +8.8 ppg. This game should be a lot closer than expected as Arizona is overvalued tremendously and we will take the generous number. 5* St. Louis Rams
SIXTH SENSE
INDIANAPOLIS –13.5 Cincinnati 42
Indy struggled to defeat Cleveland last week and needed a fumble recovery for a touchdown late in the game to win. They averaged just 4.3yppl but allowed Cleveland just 3.0yppl. Indy threw for 6.0yps and held Cleveland to just 2.9yps. Neither team rushed the ball well. Cincinnati was blown out at home against Baltimore, losing 36-7 and getting out gained 6.0yppl to 2.9yppl. They were out passed 9.5yps to just 2.6yps. Their passing numbers under Fitzpatrick has been a problem all year long. For the season, Cincinnati averages 3.4ypr against 3.8ypr, just 4.1yps against 5.5yps and 3.8yppl against 4.8yppl. They allow 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. Indy has been just average on offense gaining just 3.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Cincinnati qualifies in a late season negative situation because of their poor performance last week, which is 97-51-2 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Indy by 14.5 points and predict about 38 points. This is a lot of points to be laying. Cincinnati has struggled as of late but Indy has won just one game by more than six points this year. And with Bob Sanders out and center Jeff Saturday out, I don’t expect the Colts to do more than they have to. With that said, the numbers and the situation favor Indy so I will call it a 14 point win in a weak lean. INDIANAPOLIS 27 CINCINNATI 13
CHICAGO –6.5 Jacksonville 40
The Bears were hit in the mouth pretty good last week against Minnesota. They had a 7-3 lead and were stopped on four straight plays inside the five yard line. Minnesota took the very next play and completed a 99 yard touchdown pass. Had the Bears gone up 14-3, that may have changed the night but they didn’t and they never recovered from that. They were out gained 5.7yppl to just 3.9yppl. They were out passed 7.4yps to 3.9yps and out rushed 4.6ypr to 4.0ypr. Their 4.0ypr isn’t bad against a good Viking rush defense. Minnesota would have averaged just 4.3yppl and just 3.9yps without the 99 yard touchdown pass. So their domination wasn’t quite as much as the numbers looked but Chicago didn’t do a very good job throwing the ball. Jacksonville got behind early on Monday night and also never recovered. They were out gained 6.4yppl to 6.1yppl and out passed 8.0yps to 6.9yps. Both team rushed for 4.8ypr. Jacksonville averages just 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl and allows 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.8yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They will also be without Rashean Mathis at cornerback for the rest of the season. Chicago averages just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.6yps against 6.1yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl. Jacksonville qualifies in a league wide general situation, which is 50-21-1 but they also qualify in a late season negative situation based on their play last week, which is 97-51-2 and plays against them here. Numbers support Chicago by 9.5 points and predict about 42 points. Jacksonville has struggled as of late, losing their last three games by at least 10 points. Chicago has won just one home game this year by more than seven points. Numbers are supporting Chicago pretty favorably and I don’t like the looks of Jacksonville right now. Their offense has really struggled and could continue to struggle against a Bears defense that can shut them down. Jacksonville has scored just 10 points against the one good defense they faced on the road this year and they have allowed an average of about 17 points against the below average offenses they have faced on the road. Chicago has scored 27 points at home against the only below average defense they have faced this year but allowed 28 points to the below average offenses they have faced this year at home. That analysis would suggest a final of around 22-19. I will lean a little more in Chicago’s favor. CHICAGO 24 JACKSONVILLE 17
GREEN BAY –6 Houston 47.5
Green Bay fought hard last week at home against Carolina but came up short. They allowed 6.5yppl and gained just 5.8yppl themselves. They were out passed 8.9yps to 6.2yps but did out rush Carolina 5.0ypr to 4.8ypr. The overall yppl numbers are a little deceiving because GB threw the ball 47 times to just 19 for Carolina. Houston jumped on Jacksonville early and often last Monday night. They out gained Jacksonville 6.4yppl to 6.1yppl, including put passing them 8.0yps to 6.9yps. Both teams rushed for 4.8ypr. Houston averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 6.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They will get Matt Schaub back at quarterback this week. Their defense is as bad as their offense is good, allowing 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.7yppl against 5.0yppl. GB averages just 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr but their rush game, especially at home, has gotten much better as of late. They also average 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.7yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl, making them average on defense. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor GB by just 4.5 points and predict about 60 points. I would consider the over in this game but the weather will not be favorable and that is enough to keep me off the over. Houston hasn’t come closer than seven points on the road against above .500 teams and defeated Cleveland by 10 points and lost to Jacksonville by three points. GB falls somewhere in between the above .500 teams and Cleveland and Jacksonville. GB has only played two teams below .500 this year and won both of those games on the road by 10 and 17 points. Houston can move the ball and GB doesn’t play great defense but they are a decent team and should be able to stuff the ball down Houston’s throat and stop the Houston attack in less than desirable conditions. GREEN BAY 34 HOUSTON 27
TENNESSEE –14 Cleveland 37
Tennessee bounced back in fine fashion last week against lowly Detroit. They out gained the Lions 6.9yppl to 3.3yppl, out rushing them 6.3ypr to 1.6ypr and out passing them 8.2yps to 4.1yps. Cleveland was leading late against Indy but lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown in their 10-6 loss. They held Indy to just 4.3yppl but gained just 3.0yppl and 2.9yps themselves. They also lost Derek Anderson to go along with the loss of Brady Quinn the week before and will now be forced to go with Ken Dorsey this week. Cleveland averages just 5.2yps against 5.8yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. They also allow 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. While the Tennessee offense isn’t great they should move the ball against a poor Cleveland defense. Tennessee averages 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense is solid and should stop a poor Cleveland offense. They allow just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.9yps against 5.8yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game but numbers favor Tennessee by 12.5 points and predict about 34 points. Cleveland has averaged just 10 points per game on the road against good defenses and allowed around 21 points on the road against below average offenses they have faced this year. Tennessee has averaged about 24 points at home against below average defenses this year and allowed about 13 points at home against below average offenses. Those numbers suggest a final of about 23-11. I think Cleveland will struggle with Ken Dorsey so I will lean slightly to Tennessee even though this is a large number. TENNESSEE 23 CLEVELAND 7
Minnesota –9.5 DETROIT 46.5
The Vikings stopped the Bears on four straight plays inside the Vikings five yard line last week and then tossed a 99 yard touchdown play on the first play after their goal line stop. That was a big stop that could have put them down 14-3 and they may have never recovered from that if they hadn’t stopped the Bears. As it turns out the Bears never recovered from the 99 yard touchdown pass. The Vikings out gained Chicago 5.7yppl to 3.9yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 3.9yps. Without the 99 yard touchdown pass, Minnesota would have gained just 4.3yppl and 3.9yps. Detroit was destroyed again, this time at the hands of Tennessee. They were out gained 6.9yppl to 3.3yppl, out passed 8.2yps to 4.1yps and out rushed 6.3ypr to 1.6ypr. Minnesota will have Pat and Kevin Williams this week, which won’t help Detroit. The Minnesota offense and defense are somewhat like Tennessee so this could be just as ugly. They average 4.4ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. But they allow just 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit averages just 5.1yps against 5.9yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 5.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.7yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Detroit qualifies in a winless situation that they have qualified in numerous times this season. They are about .500 in that situation this year. The situation is 76-30-6. Numbers favor Minnesota by 9.5 points and predict about 49 points. Detroit has allowed at least 34 points in all but one home game this year and at least 25 points in all games. They have averaged just 13.5 points at home against better than average defenses. The Vikings have only played one defense on the road that is well below average and that was Jacksonville and they scored 30 points. Minnesota has allowed a decent amount of points on the road but mostly because they were playing good defenses that put points on the board or because of special teams mistakes. That’s not to say they won’t allow that again but it’s hard to believe Detroit can take advantage of that. It’s also hard to believe, knowing Minnesota probably gets to at least 30 points in this game, that Detroit can get to 21. MINNESOTA 33 DETROIT 16
BALTIMORE –5.5 Washington 35.5
Baltimore rolled over Cincinnati last week, 36-7 and out gained the Bungles 6.0yppl to 2.9yppl. They out passed them 9.5yps to 2.6yps. Washington lost at home to the Giants and were never really in the game. They lost 23-7 and were out gained 5.7yppl to 5.2yppl, including being out passed 8.2yps to 5.3yps. They did out rush the Giants 5.1ypr to 3.1ypr. Baltimore averages 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr but are now averaging 6.0yps against 6.0yps, which is a huge improvement over prior years in the passing game. Overall they average 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.1yps against 5.7yps and 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. Washington averages 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.3yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game but numbers greatly favor Baltimore by 10 points and predict about 32 points. Baltimore seems to be on a roll and Washington is currently struggling against physical defenses. BALTIMORE 20 WASHINGTON 10
NY GIANTS –7 Philadelphia 43
The Giants rolled again last week at Washington, 23-7. They out gained Washington 5.7yppl to 5.2yppl, including out passing them 8.2yps to 5.3yps. Philly jumped on Arizona in a good spot to win 48-20 and out gained the Cardinals 5.5yppl to 5.3yppl. They out rushed Arizona 4.6ypr to 2.5ypr but out passed them just 6.3yps to 6.0yps. The big difference in that game was four Arizona turnovers. Philly averages 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.3yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl. The Giants are on a roll and they average 4.9ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow just 5.4yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.0yppl. The Giants qualify in a home scheduling situation, which is 48-13-1. Numbers favor NY by eight points and predict about 52 points. Philly has only faced two good teams on the road this year and allowed 41 and 36 points and lost by four and 29 points. The Giants have faced three good teams at home this year, winning by nine against Washington, 21 against Dallas (without Romo) and by 29 points against Baltimore. I’m convinced the more and more I watch Philly that they are very capable against bad teams and teams that don’t play well in certain situations (see Arizona on the road against a decent team like Philly) but when they match up in games they need to win against good teams that seem to fail. The Giants have been taking care of business this year and this game should be no different even with the current distractions. NY GIANTS 30 PHILADELPHIA 17
NEW ORLEANS –3 Atlanta 51.5
NO played well in their 23-20 loss at TB last week. They out gained the Bucs 5.0yppl to 4.2yppl. They out passed TB 6.0yps to 3.9yps but were out rushed 4.4ypr to 2.4ypr. Atlanta went to SD and took the Chargers out of the game almost immediately. They out gained SD 5.3yppl to 3.9yppl, including out passing them 9.0yps to 4.0yps. Everybody thinks Atlanta can run the ball well and they do a good job of that, averaging 151 yards per game against teams allowing only 126 yards a game. They average just 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr. It’s their passing game, which has been great, averaging 7.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.3yppl overall. The defense has struggled against the run allowing 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr and the passing game has been decent, allowing just 6.1yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.6ypr against 5.4ypr. The Saints don’t run the ball well at just 3.6ypr against 4.3ypr but they throw it terrifically at 7.9yps against 6.1yps and a total of 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 5.4yppl against 5.3yppl so the defense is about average. The Saints qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 116-48-8 and plays against NO here. Numbers favor NO by just one point and predict about 52 points. Atlanta has averaged and allowed about 24 to 25 points per game on the road against respective offenses and defenses like NO (above average offense and roughly average defenses). The Saints have averaged around 33 points at home against below average defenses and allowing about 29 points against above average offenses. That makes this score about 29-27 in favor of NO. Numbers point towards the over but that number is set too high to risk playing the over. The situation on Atlanta is solid and there is slight value to them as well. ATLANTA 28 NEW ORLEANS 23
NY Jets –4 SAN FRANCISCO 44.5
The Jets evidently were still thinking about their win over the Titans as Denver took it to them handily last week. They were out gained 7.1yps to 6.0yps, getting out passed 8.3yps to 5.4yps. They did out rush the Broncos 7.5ypr to 5.1ypr. Take away the 59 yard touchdown run by Thomas Jones and they averaged just 4.6ypr. SF won at Buffalo 10-3 but they were badly out gained in that game 5.3yppl to 3.5yppl. They were out rushed 6.2ypr to 2.lypr. The Jets average 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr but 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.2yppl. SF averages 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl and allows 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The 49ers qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 143-78-8 and 286-199-21. Numbers favor the Jets by 5.5 points and predict about 50 points. I would like to take SF but their four wins have come against Seattle, St. Louis, Detroit and Buffalo last week. Of their eight losses the closest they have come is within five points. That logic along with the Jets coming off a poor game makes it hard for me to take SF in this game. NY JETS 30 SAN FRANCISCO 20
Buffalo PK Miami 42 Toronto
Buffalo lost at home to SF last week but won the game from the line of scrimmage, out gaining SF 5.3yppl to 3.5yppl. They out rushed SF 6.2ypr to 2.1ypr. Miami went to St. Louis and won 16-12 and out gained the Rams 5.3yppl to 4.5yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 4.3yps. Buffalo averages 5.4yppl against 5.6yppl and allows 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers make them average. Miami averages 7.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. Playing in the Toronto dome should greatly help Miami and their passing game. The Dolphins allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but 6.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Trent Edwards most likely will not play in this game, which means JP Losman will play. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Miami by 2.5 points and predict about 41 points. Other than their win over San Diego, Buffalo hasn’t defeated a team with more than three wins this year. That doesn’t bode well for them. And, with Miami playing in a dome last week, they should be better prepared to play in a dome this week and avoid the cold weather they would have experienced in Buffalo. MIAMI 21 BUFFALO 20
DENVER –8.5 Kansas City 48.5
Denver came out of nowhere last week and stuck it to the Jets in their easy 34-17 win. They out gained the Jets 7.1yppl to 6.0yppl and out passed NY 8.3yps to 5.4yps. They were out rushed 7.5ypr to 5.1ypr but without a 59 yard touchdown run by Thomas Jones the Jets would have averaged just 4.6ypr. KC won at Oakland 20-13 and out gained the Raiders 5.0yppl to 4.8yppl. They out passed Oakland 6.8yps to 4.7yps. They were out rushed 4.8ypr to 3.9ypr. Denver averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.3yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Their defense allows 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.0yppl against 5.3yppl. The KC offense has struggled this year but is getting better as of late with Tyler Thigpen. They average 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow, much like Denver, 5.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.4yps against 6.5yps and 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Denver by eight points and predict about 54 points. Throw out last weeks 14 point victory and week one’s 27 point victory over Oakland and Denver hasn’t defeated a team by more than four points this year. KC has played better. I’m certainly not recommending a team like Denver with such a poor defense to be laying this many points. KC has lost seven straight years here in Denver and six of those seven losses were by at least seven points and five of the seven were by 10 points or more. DENVER 29 KANSAS CITY 24
ARIZONA –14 St. Louis 48.5
Arizona lost badly at Philadelphia last week, 20-48 but they were only out gained 5.5yppl to 5.3yppl. They were out passed just 6.3yps to 6.0yps but out rushed 4.6ypr to 2.5ypr. The biggest issue last week for Arizona was four Cardinal turnovers. The Rams lost at home to Miami 16-12 and were out gained 5.5yppl to 4.3yppl, including being out passed 7.4yps to 4.3yps. They both rushed for 4.3ypr. The Rams average just 5.0yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Arizona has struggled to run the ball this year at just 3.3ypr against 4.0ypr but should have some success this week. They throw the ball for 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. The Cardinals allow 3.8ypr against 4.3ypr and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. Arizona qualifies in a couple of negative situations based on their poor play of last week, which are 83-39-4 and 75-28-2. The Rams also qualify in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. Arizona also qualifies in a negative rushing situation, which is 116-48-8 and plays against Arizona here. Numbers favor Arizona by 13.5 points and predict about 50 points. Since 1983 the Cardinals have been favored by 10 or more points at home four times and they are 0-4 ats. This year they were favored by 9.5 points over SF and failed to cover. Two of those four spread point losses were last year. The situations favoring St. Louis are extremely strong and the numbers suggest some value to the Rams but they have lost four of their six games on the road this year by at least 19 points. I simply can’t make a play on a team like the Rams or Lions but I will lean their way because of the situations and past history of the Cardinals laying this many points.
PITTSBURGH –3 Dallas 38.5
Dallas had no problem in crushing Seattle last week, 34-9 as they out gained the Seahawks 7.7yppl to 4.7yppl, including out passing them 9.7yps to 5.4yps and out rushing them 4.8ypr to 3.5ypr. Pittsburgh won the turnover battle against NE last week 5-1 and out gained NE 4.9yppl to 4.2yppl, including out passing them 5.1yps to 3.3yps. They were out rushed 6.1ypr to 4.7ypr. The Steelers qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 75-32-7. Dallas also qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 79-34-6 and plays against them here. The Steelers also qualify in a rushing situation, which is 88-52-7. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by three points and predict about 41 points. I’ve spoken about how successful Pittsburgh has been at home in the Roethlisberger era when favored by five or more points. I’ve lost on Pittsburgh twice this year when they were laying four or less points. Counting those losses, they are now 1-14 ats when laying four or less points at home in their last fifteen tries, dating back to 2002. They seem to be the type of team that can destroy the teams they are supposed to defeat but struggle against the teams they are probably comparable to when they are favored by four or less points. That concerns me a little with Pittsburgh although I think the Cowboys are overrated and it doesn’t appear Marion Barber will play this week either. I’ll consider giving Pittsburgh one more chance laying a short number at home. PITTSBURGH 27 DALLAS 17
New England –6 SEATTLE 43
Seattle was beaten badly last week at Dallas, getting out gained 7.7yppl to 4.7yppl, including being out passed 9.7yps to 5.4yps and out rushed 4.8ypr to 3.5ypr. They will also probably be without Matt Hasselbeck as well. NE was out gained by Pittsburgh 4.9yppl to 4.2yppl, including being out passed 5.1yps to 3.3yps. They did out rush Pittsburgh 6.1ypr to 4.7ypr. NE lost the turnover battle 5-1 which also didn’t help them stay competitive in the game. NE averages 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 6.7yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Seattle averages 4.3ypr against 4.0ypr but just 4.7yps against 6.0yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Those poor passing numbers could be closer to reality if Wallace plays at quarterback this week for Seattle. Seattle qualifies in a rushing situation, which is 88-52-7. Numbers favor Seattle by 1.5 points and predict about 41 points. I have a hard time taking Seattle in a game where Hasselbeck won’t play and NE is in an ugly mood coming off a loss. NEW ENGLAND 23 SEATTLE 17
CAROLINA –3 Tampa Bay 38
Carolina comes off a nice outing at GB with a 35-31 win. They out gained the Packers 6.5yppl to 5.8yppl, including out passing GB 8.9yps to 6.2yps. They were out rushed 5.0ypr to 4.8ypr. Those yards per play numbers could have been worse knowing Carolina threw the ball only 19 times and GB threw the ball 47 times to skew the overall YPPL numbers. TB won at home against NO but they were out gained 5.0yppl to 4.2yppl, including being out passed 6.0yps to 3.9yps. They did out rush NO 4.4ypr to 2.4ypr. TB has struggled on offense this year, gaining just 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.9yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense has been solid allowing just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl. Carolina averages 6.6yps against 6.3yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Their defense has played just as well against the pass allowing 5.5yps against 6.4yps. They aren’t quite as good against the run allowing 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl overall. Carolina qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 27-8-2. They also qualify in a rushing situation, which is 206-120-15. Numbers favor Carolina by 4.5 points and predict about 32 points. Carolina is 6-0 at home this year. TB has played three teams on the road this year that are above .500 and they have lost all three of those games although the losses have been by 4, 3 and 4 points. Better offense, equally good defense, solid situations and a short number make this a good situation to play Carolina. CAROLINA 20 TAMPA BAY 10
Just one best bet so far this week. I will come back by Saturday at 6 pm central time with any additional best bets for week 14. I want to spend a little more time looking at some of these games.
YTD 46-28-1 +42.60%
3% NY GIANTS -7
3% CAROLINA -3
Pickens Pick
New Orleans Saints
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia / NY under 42
Washington Redskins
Detroit Lions
Adam Meyer
5* Packers -5.5
5* Patriots -4.5
Kiki Sports
2 units Pittsburgh -3
1 unit Atlanta +3
1 unit New England -7
Kelso
Clubs
10 units Denver -9
5 units Baltimore -5.5
4 units Indy -13.5
3 units Pats -7