Mark Morgan
20* Patriots
10* 49ers
Winning Angle
Play San Francisco (+6.5) over Miami*
(NFL Game of the Year Winner)
Miami has lost 4 of the last 5 games against the spread and they have also lost 7 consecutive games against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami has lost 11 of the last 14 home games against the spread and they have lost 8 of the last 11 games when playing in the month of December.
Play Tampa Bay (+3) over Atlanta*
(Bonus NFL Play)
Tampa Bay has won 4 of the last 5 games and they have also won 3 consecutive games vs. Atlanta. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 8 of the last 11 games when playing in the month of December and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 home games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Play Baltimore (-2) over Pittsburgh*
(Bonus NFL Play)
Baltimore has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games when the line is between +3 and -3 and they have also covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games vs. AFC Conference Opponents. Baltimore has covered the spread in 12 of the last 15 home games coming off a win by 14 points or more and their defense is only allowing an average of 10 points a game on defense this season.
Play NY Giants (+3) over Dallas*
Pro Sports Plays
Take Baltimore (-2) over Pittsburgh
(10* Top Play)
Baltimore has won and covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games and they have also won and covered the spread in 2 consecutive games vs. Pittsburgh at home.
Extra Premium Plays for Sunday
Take San Francisco (+6.5) over Miami (5* NFL Play)
Take NY Giants (+3) over Dallas (5* NFL Play)
CKO
11* WASHINGTON over Cincinnati
WASHINGTON 27 - *Cincinnati 10
Fundamentally-sound, strong-in-the-pits Washington eager to be facing one of the NFL’s struggling teams after having to play seven games so far vs. powerful NFC East rivals NYG, Dallas & Philly, plus Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Things promise to go much better vs. the 1-11-1 Bengals and their backup QB, shuffled OL, and injury-thinned defense. Even if Clinton Portis is sidelined for the Skins, LaDell Betts (1154 YR in 2006) is an excellent backup. Every win crucial for Skins’ fading playoff chances.
10* BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh
*BALTIMORE 23 - Pittsburgh 10
It was just about this time of the year in 2007 that the Ravens nearly defeated the then-undefeated New England Patriots in Baltimore, losing only after a series of controversial late calls on a cold and windy night. This year, the Raven defense is healthier, and the offense is vastly improved, thanks to rookie QB Joe Flacco and poised, clever, rookie HC John Harbaugh. Rough-tough Baltimore is 4-2 SU last 6 meetings vs. Pittsburgh.
11* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO over Georgia Tech
Beware of UIC, which has proven it can take its act on the road with recent 19-point thumping of Vandy in Nashville. And Jimmy Collins’ Flames are unique among Horizon entries because of legit post presence provided by 7-0 sr. VanderMeer (12.7 ppg & 9.3 rpg), who provides half of potent inside-outside combo along with explosive sr. G Mayo (21 ppg). Tech due to welcome back SG Clinch (academic suspension first semester), but HC Hewitt still trying to get Jackets’ gears meshing on offense. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO 67 - *Georgia Tech 61 RATING - 11
Brandon Lang
25 Dime Baltimore Ravens
(if your line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2-1/2 and if your line is 3-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3)
10 dime 6-point teaser - Jets / Broncos
FREE: NY Giants
Two Minute Warning
Best Bets
Investor
Jacksonville +2 1/2
Detroit +17
San Francisco +6 1/2
Houston +3
Baltimore -2
Denver +7 1/2
Kansas City +5 1/2
Minnesota +3
Oakland + 7
N.Y.Giants +3
Jeff Benton
25 Dime: COWBOYS (minus the points vs. Giants) ... NOTE: I highly doubt that this number will climb to 3 1/2, but if for some reason it does, buy the half-point with Dallas and only lay 3. Do NOT get beat on the hook in this game!
15 Dime: TEXANS (plus the points vs. Titans)
5 Dime: 49ERS (plus the points vs. Dolphins) ... NOTE: If this line jumps to 6 1/2, play it smart and protect yourself by buying the half point and grabbing seven, which is obviously a key number in the NFL.
Cowboys
Forget about the latest saga involving Mr. Me, Terrell Owens, and the supposedly fractured Cowboys locker room. And forget about any lingering hangover from Dallas’ blown four-quarter lead at Pittsburgh last week. It means nothing. All that matters is this is THE biggest game of the year for the Cowboys, and I’m fully confident that they’ll be ready to play football tonight. And if they do indeed bring their A game, then we’ve got ourselves tremendous value with the home team.
First off, don’t forget that Dallas is 5-1 at home this season, with the last two victories – both with Romo back under center – being by a combined score of 69-31. Yes, the opponents were the 49ers and Seahawks, I get that. But have you seen what San Francisco has done the last two weeks, winning at Buffalo and knocking off the Jets last Sunday? And did you see Seattle, with its backup quarterback, take New England to the wire a week ago? No, I’m not suggesting that the 49ers or Seahawks – two teams that the Giants also crushed at home earlier this season – are in the same league as the defending champions. I am saying those were pretty thorough whippings by the Cowboys, who outgained the Niners and Seahawks by 229 total yards And even though they gave away that game against the Steelers last week, we can all agree that Dallas outplayed a Super Bowl contender on the road in frigid conditions. And had they pulled out the win, the Cowboys would be riding a four-game winning streak right now and we’d probably be laying more than 5 points tonight. So indeed there is line value with Dallas tonight. Meanwhile, hours before Dallas outplayed the Steelers last Sunday, the Giants got completely run over at home by the Eagles. Some are willing to chalk up the loss to the distractions caused by the Plaxico Burress incident. Not me. When you get outgained by 120 total yards (331-211), when you’re the league’s #1 rushing team and you get outrushed 144-88, when you managed just 14 first downs (and allow 24), and when your quarterback – playing his second game without his favorite, most reliable 6-foot-7 target – goes 13-for-27 for 123 yards, well, you can’t blame that all on distractions. And don’t be fooled by the 20-14 final score, either. The Giants got one touchdown on a blocked field goal return on the final play of the first half, then got a garbage TD with 20 seconds left to make the score more respectable. Honestly, guys, I think the Giants got exposed a bit in that Eagles loss, especially offensively. With Brandon Jacobs hurt (and he’s been ruled out for this game), New York’s vaunted ground game did nothing. And with no Burress on the field, Philadelphia’s defense didn’t have to mask coverages with a double team, meaning Eli Manning had fewer open options in the passing game. Now, without Burress and without Jacobs – both of whom made big contributions in the Giants’ 35-14 win over Dallas five weeks ago when the Cowboys didn’t have Romo – New York must try and solve a Cowboys defense that has been outstanding recently. Since the Giants’ debacle, that D has given up 15.3 points per game, and that includes the Steelers’ INT return for a touchdown last week that obviously wasn’t the fault of the Dallas defense.In the last three games alone, the Cowboys have given up just 288 total yards per game, including a scant 58.7 rushing yards per game. During that same span, the Dallas offense has produced 27.3 points and 381.3 yards per game, including 286.3 passing ypg from Romo. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been torched by the pass the last three weeks, allowing an average of 254.3 ypg to Kurt Warner, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb. The point: I see Romo bouncing back from last week’s disaster at Pittsburgh, and I don’t care what WR or TE he’s throwing to.
Bottom line: While the Giants are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that’s important, the Cowboys are playing to save their season. They’re at home, where all five of their wins have come by four points or more, while the Giants are playing their fourth road game in the last six weeks, with three of those being against divisional foes. If the Cowboys come ready to play from the start, I not only see them winning, I see them winning handily.
Texans
At this late point in the season, it’s important to identify the attitudes and motivations of teams as much as it is to break down the actual matchups. When it comes to teams that are out of the playoff hunt, like the Texans, it’s critical to determine which are still giving an honest effort on every play and which are going through the motions. Clearly, after three consecutive victories and four straight spread-covers (three of which came on the road), Houston falls into the category of a squad that’s still giving its all.
At the same time, Tennessee wrapped up a division title and a first-round bye last week and is a virtual lock for home-field advantage, making this a major flat spot for Jeff Fisher’s team. Frankly, I just can’t envision the Titans, who are hitting the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, having that mental edge today. Simply put, it’s only natural in a grueling 16-week season for teams – even great ones like the Titans – to have an off week, and this would seem to be the perfect storm for such an occurrence: Fourth road game in six weeks, coming off clinching a division title for the first time in years, facing a gritty and improving divisional opponent and missing one Pro Bowl-caliber defensive lineman (Kyle Vanden Bosch is out for the Titans) and another who is banged up (Albert Haynesworth is questionable).
Also, when these squads met back in Week 3 in Nashville, the final score read Titans 31, Texans 12, but it was a misleading final for two reasons: 1) the Texans were playing their first game after dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Ike, not to mention coming off an unscheduled bye week filled with non-football-related distractions; and 2) the Texans marched inside the Tennessee 11-yard line five different times but only managed 13 points (1 TD, 2 FGs), while being stopped on downs twice and having an interception returned 99 yards for a score. In fact, from a yardage perspective, Houston was every bit as good as Tennessee that day, finishing with 317 yards (146 rushing, 5.2 yards per carry) and giving up 343 yards (154 rushing, 4.3 ypc).
This time around, the Titans are catching Houston fully focused and playing great football. With last week’s 24-21 win at Lambeau Field – they outgained the Packers by 162 yards! – Houston won for the third straight week and the sixth time in the last nine weeks. In those nine contests, the Texans’ offense has put up 24 points or more six times. More impressively, though, over the last three weeks, the defense has really stepped up, giving up just 44 total points – or 30 points if you take away two garbage-time touchdowns to Jacksonville two Mondays ago.Texans QB Matt Schaub returned from injury last week and lit up the Packers for 414 passing yards, and his presence makes rookie RB Steve Slaton that much more dangerous (Slaton gashed a really good Titans defense for 116 yards on just 18 carries in the first meeting). Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six games in December. Also, despite the Week 3 result, the ‘dog has dominated this rivalry of late, cashing in seven of the last 10 meetings, with five outright upsets.Take the points, though I’ve got a strong feeling we’re not even going to need them, as I think the surging Texans (4-2 at home this year) will catch Tennessee napping.
49ers
Along with the Falcons, the Miami Dolphins are in the midst of one of the most remarkable seasons I’ve ever witnessed in the NFL. For them to go 1-15 last year – with that lone victory coming in overtime – to 8-5 and atop the AFC East standings in 12 months is beyond stunning. But if there’s one legitimate criticism that can be charged against the Dolphins it’s their inability to handle the role of favorite. Miami has been a chalk six times this season and has covered the spread only once, and that was a 25-16 come-from-behind home win over the Bills as a scant one-point favorite (and in some spots, that game closed as a pick-em). On the other hand, since losing their first two games to the Jets and Cardinals, the Dolphins have cashed five straight times as an underdog.
Well, today, they’re laying almost a touchdown against the 49ers, who fall into the same category as the aforementioned Houston Texans: a team that’s going all out on both sides of the ball despite having nothing but pride for which to play. San Francisco has won back-to-back games for the first time this year, and it was against two teams from Miami’s division (10-3 road win at Buffalo; 24-14 home win over the Jets). Over their last five games, the 49ers are 4-1 ATS, with three outright wins. The most impressive had to have been last week’s 10-point beat-down of the first-place Jets. San Francisco finished with 375 total yards (100 rushing) and held New York to just 182 yards (59 rushing), and Niners QB Shaun Hill (275 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) clearly outplayed Brett Favre (137 passing yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT).
Now, I admit that this is a difficult travel spot for the 49ers, as they’re making their third trip to the East Coast since Oct. 19. They’re also on the road for the third time in the last four weeks, having previously trekked to Dallas and Buffalo in consecutive weeks at the end of November. That said, San Francisco is the ONLY team from the West Coast to win a game in the Eastern Time Zone this season (that seven-point win at the Bills). They’re playing with a lot of heart and a ton of confidence, and new coach Mike Singletary clearly has pushed the right motivational buttons. And even if RB Frank Gore is a no-go, I still think San Fran can hang in this game against Miami, which has struggled to beat the likes of the Seahawks (21-19) and Raiders (17-15) at home, as well as the lowly Rams (16-12) on the road. Take the points.
DOC
NFL Game of the Year
5 Unit Play. Take Kansas City Chiefs +5 over San Diego Chargers
Pro Game of the Year. The Chargers are overrated, enough said! They are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL and there is not a chance they warrant to be laying points on the road. The Chiefs play Denver tough last week on the road and lost to the Chargers earlier this season by just one point, 20-19, despite being a 14 ½ point underdog. Kansas City has finally settler on a quarterback in Tyler Thigpen and he does have some receiving weapons to work with in Bowe and Gonzalez. The Chargers have never recovered for the botched call earlier this season and they cannot wait for this season to end. The Chiefs are playing for their coaches and the players are playing for their jobs next season. They win this game straight-up and getting points in a bonus. Kansas City 27, San Diego 24.
Lee Kostroski
10* NFL Total of the Month - 83% run!
Cleveland vs. Philadelphia Under the total
Cleveland’s offensive struggles are the main reason we are taking the UNDER on this game. With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both sidelined with injuries, the Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback for the second straight week. Last week in a 9-28 loss to the Titans, Dorsey was a mere 22/43 for 150 yards and 1 interception. We don’t see his production improving this week vs. a stingy Eagles defense. Even before Dorsey was handed the starting job, the Browns were struggling to score points. They have totaled just 21 points in the past three weeks (just 7 points per game). Their total yardage numbers the last three games are 240, 192 and 178. The Cleveland offense has been horrendous and now they face off against the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. The Eagles stop unit has completely shutdown two of the best offenses in the NFL the last two weeks. They held Arizona to just 20 points and 260 total yards two weeks ago. Last Sunday they topped the Giants 20-14. New York put together only 211 yards of total offense against this red hot defense. Not only that, their 14 points were even a bit deceiving as they scored one TD on a 71-yard blocked field goal return and the other TD came with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
Back to the Browns and their defense which has actually been playing fairly well. Before giving up 28 points last week to the Titans, the Browns held Houston to just 16 points and Indianapolis to just 10 in back to back weeks. Cleveland is actually 3rd in the entire NFL in defensive efficiency allowing just one point for every 17 yards gained by their opponent. They have allowed 17 points or less in six of their last ten games. This team is decent on defense and really bad on offense. That combination leads to low scoring games.
The Eagles were in shambles after their 29 point loss to the Ravens, but as we mentioned, they bounced back nicely with big wins against the Cardinals and the Giants the last two weeks. Philly has been riding on the back of Brian Westbrook for the last two weeks as he has totaled 240 yards rushing. Eagle coach Andy Reid has really decided to lean on the run down the stretch and that has amounted to 81 rushes in the last two games. Don’t expect him to change his philosophy which has led to two straight wins. With the Browns ability to stop the pass (Cleveland has allowed an average of 185 yards passing the past three weeks, allowing just 3 touchdowns and forcing 6 interceptions), we will get an over abundance of the Philly ground game here.
Philly doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps to begin with, and they will have to use Westbrook a lot to consistently move the ball in this game. Running the ball will speed the game up and keep the score low. Last week, the Titans ran the ball 43 times for 235 yards in their 28-9 win. Both teams are a combined 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games in December and we see that trend continuing on Monday night. Look for Philly to grab a lead and just sit on it using their running game. Go with the UNDER.
Bob Akmens
10* CAROLINA -7.5
10* NY GIANTS +3
10* ARIZONA -3
Indian Cowboy
Denver +9 (POD)
S.F +6.5
Titans/Texans under 45
K.C +5.5
Cincy +7
LPW SPORTS FORECASTING
35* Perfect Situation Play
SAN FRANCISCO
Trace Adams
2500* - NY Jets, 1000* - Tennessee Titans 2 weeks ago, after the Jets had routed Tennessee at Tennessee, Brett Favre and company looked like a lock to win the AFC. My how things have changed, as New York has suffered back-to-back losses to Denver, and at San Francisco to come back to the pack. But, and this is a big BUT...the Jets still control their own destiny!
A win and cover today against the fading, and faded Bills is way in order, as Buffalo has just 1 win and cover in their last 7 games, and their offense has been held to just a field goal in each of their last pair of losses.
Injuries have taken their toll on Buffalo, and it is doubtful to me that after losing their big division showdown with Miami last week, the Bills are going to be too inspired on the road today once they get behind.
This one will turn into a rout before long. New York won a 26-17 decision at Buffalo as the 5-point dog back on November 2nd, as the Jets forced some timely turnovers en route to the upset win.
Expect New York to use the same formula they used in that win Sunday afternoon. Pounding the running game with Jones, and Washington against the banged up Bills defense, and Favre mixing in some safe play-action to open this game up.
The line may seem a little "steep", but with Buffalo's offense showing just 17-points or less in 5 of their last 7 games (including the loss to the Flyboys), the Bills just aren't in the hunt come the end of this one.
Lay it, lay it, lay it!
2500♦ One-and-Only AFC Game of the Year on the New York Jets!
2500♦ - New York Jets
I am still scratching my head over the line in today's Titans-Texans game!?!?!?!?
Either this is the biggest sucker play, or NOBODY believes in this 12-1 Tennessee team?
Well, I am sold on the Titans, as not only are they 12-1 straight up, but they are 11-2 against the spread this season. Included is a 31-12 rout of Houston as the 4 1/2-point home favorite back on September 21st, the Titans 5th straight win, and cover against Houston.
Houston appears to be coming on strong, and lots of folks are intrigued by their "upset" win at Lambeau Field last week, but Matt Schaub did turn it over a few times, and Houston's recent uptick comes against some bad teams - see Jacksonville, and Cleveland!
The Titans are a perfect 6-0 against the spread on the road this year, and a win today secures home-field advantage through the playoffs! With games against the Steelers, and the Colts on-deck, you can bet that Jeff Fisher WANTS this to be the clincher.
Lay the small road wood.
1000♦ - Tennessee Titans
Street Rosenthal
Baltimore
Cobra Sports
NFL
TAM/ATL OVER
WAS/CIN UNDER
TEN/HOU OVER
MIN
NYG
NBA
MIN/LAL OVER