Seabass
100* 7pt teaser cin +14 with car/den under 55
100* Jets -7
50* KC
50* Mia/SF under
50* NYG/Dal under
NHL
300* Van/FL under 5.5
Ted Sevransky
6* Top Atlanta Falcons -3
Mike Rose
5* Best Arizona Cardinals -3
Ben Lewis
5* Best Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Lenny Stevens
20* GOY MIAMI
10* STL
10* TB
10* Minn
3G
10* Game of the Month: SD CHARGERS
10* STL RAMS
5* Atlanta
5* Denver Broncos
4* NY Jets
10* Underdog Shocker: TORONTO RAPTORS +2.5
Opposite Action Plays
Giants/Cowboys Under 46
JB Sports
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -5.5
Mike Lineback
Seahawks/Rams Over 42
Lenny Del Genio
GREEN BAY PACKERS -2
Rocketman
BALTIMORE RAVENS -2.5
Nick Parsons
ST. LOUIS RAMS +2.5
BIG AL
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver/Carolina game. The Carolina Panthers have played four straight high-scoring games: a 31-22 win vs. Detroit; a 45-28 loss at Atlanta; a 35-31 victory at Green Bay; and last Monday's 38-23 triumph over Tampa Bay. Off these four high-scoring games (each went over the total), we'll look for a much lower scoring game here, as teams which play in four straight 'overs' have gone 'under' the total 60.2% of the time (132-87) if the line is 38 or more points, and their foe went 'under' in its previous game. Also, the Panthers have always been a team that has won games with defense, and a strong rushing attack. These are two qualities that generally result in lower scoring games. When the Panthers have been favored by 6 or more points, their games have, not surprisingly, gone 'under' the total 26 of 37 times, as Carolina usually gets out to a lead, and then can "take the air out of the ball" with their rushing attack. This year, the Panthers have been favored by six points in four games: at home vs. Atlanta (a 24-9 win); at home vs. KC (a 34-0 win); on the road vs. Oakland (a 17-6 win); and the aforementioned game vs. Detroit (a 31-22 win). So, three of those four games went 'under' the total. We'll look for another low-scoring game here. Non-Conference Total of the Year on the 'under' in Carolina/Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big winners on Sunday, including my NFL Roadkill play (13-4 this football season).
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the NY Jets, as Dick Jauron's men fall into an awesome 22-0 ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play on any .450 (or better) team off a loss of more than 10 points to a division rival, if it was favored in that loss, and is now an underdog against another division rival. Last week, Buffalo fell 16-3 to an AFC East rival -- the Miami Dolphins -- and the Bills were a small favorite in that contest, so Buffalo falls squarely within our 22-0 ATS system. Even though Buffy's offense has been out of sync, its defense has been solid the past two weeks, and has only given up a total of 26 points (two TDs and four FGs). Meanwhile, the Jets are also floundering, and have lost their last two ballgames -- both as big favorites -- 34-17 at home to Denver, and 24-14 on the road vs. San Francisco. And .454 (or better) NFL home favorites of less than 15 points, off back-to-back double digit losses, are an awful 2-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss. Look for Buffalo to rebound big in this divisional contest, and cover the large number. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year or my NFL Roadkill Winner.
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh. Earlier this season, in September, we won our Monday Night Game of the Month on Baltimore +6 over Pittsburgh. The Steelers won that game, 23-20, but Baltimore covered the spread. At the time, the Ravens' rookie QB, Joe Flacco, was still pretty green, but his early-season struggles are behind him. After losing 31-3 to Indy in Week 5 (the Ravens had five turnovers in that game), Baltimore and Flacco have been virtually perfect. The Ravens are 7-1 SU and ATS with their only loss on the road to the NY Giants, and Flacco has thrown just three interceptions in those eight games, while the Ravens have lost just three fumbles. In contrast, Baltimore has forced 18 turnovers over this 8-game stretch. Pittsburgh's defense has been just as strong, but the Steelers have been turning the ball over a lot more than Baltimore (11 turnovers their last seven games). Another big difference is in the rushing attacks of the two teams. Baltimore's ground game is operating in high gear, with 1212 yards on 310 carries (3.9 ypr) over its last eight games, while Pitt's running game has been sluggish (674 yards on 202 carries (3.33 ypr) over its last seven games. In this series, the home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings straight-up, and is 24-14 ATS since 1990. Finally, unrested teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are an awful 54-98 ATS on the road vs. winning foes. With the Steelers in off four straight wins, and three straight covers, we'll fade Mike Tomlin's men here. NFL Roadkill on Baltimore. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year on Sunday.
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Wright State. Wake Forest is 8-0 on the season, and 3-2 ATS, including a perfect 2-0 ATS at home. One of those wins was against NC Wilmington -- a 120-88 blowout -- and we were on Wake Forest in that game. This will be a difficult game for Wright State since it will be without its top scorer, junior guard Vaughn Duggins, as well as two other players (Kyle Pressley and Troy Tabler). Though Wright State likes to control the tempo, that will be tough once the Raiders fall behind, and Wake Forest is one of the nation's leaders in scoring at 85.5 ppg. Moreover, the Demon Deacons are also among the top college teams in rebounding (45 rpg) and defense FG pct (34%). Indeed, according to Ken Pomeroy's Basketball rankings, Wake Forest ranks 3rd in his raw defensive efficiency category behind only Louisville and Ohio State, and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Pomeroy's rankings are important because they assess teams based on 100 possessions, so they take into account pace of play. Thus, teams that play at a faster pace, like Wake Forest, aren't penalized for giving up more points, and teams that play at a slower pace, like Air Force, aren't rewarded. To illustrate just how far Wake Forest has come this season, last year it ranked 66th in raw defensive efficiency. Look for Dino Gaudio's Deacons to hammer Wright State. Lay the points.
Cajun-Sports NFL Executive
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: 5* Baltimore Ravens -2.5
M&T Bank Stadium will be the site of today’s AFC clash between the host Baltimore Ravens and the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh enters today’s contest with a 10-3 SU record while the Ravens are 9-4 SU on the season.
Pittsburgh won the first meeting between these two teams this season although it took overtime to decide the game. The Steelers won 23 to 20 but failed to cover as a 6 point home favorite on Monday Night Football.
That game was Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco’s first road game as the starter for Baltimore. A very tough place to play for veteran QB’s much less a rookie in the first road game of his career and on Monday Night Football. Flacco played well with 192 yards passing with one touchdown and no interceptions. Although his fumble late in the third quarter which was returned for a touchdown was the game changing moment. He rebounded though and led his team on a 76 yard scoring drive to send the game to overtime.
Baltimore is 4-1 SU and ATS at home this year with a 308 to 195 yardage advantage holding opponents to 64 yards rushing on 3.2 yards per carry with an average score of 24 to 10.
Pittsburgh has won and covered their last four on the highway with a 337 to 228 total yards advantage and has allowed only 3.92 yards per play. It’s always tough to win on the road but we must look at the opponents the Steelers faced to get that 4-0 record. They faced a New England team that is not at full strength but they defeated them 33 to 10. The other three opponents were Washington, Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Not an elite group of NFL teams but they did win and cover each contest.
The Achilles heel for the Steelers this season has been the performance of their offensive line which ranks 29th in the league and gave up another five sacks of Roethlisberger last week to Dallas. Flacco has been sacked 18 fewer times and has thrown two fewer interceptions than Roethlisberger this season.
Baltimore is averaging 24.0 points per game versus teams that allow only 20.6 points per game. Their defense is giving up 10.0 points per game at home this season to teams that normally score 19.8 points per game. Pittsburgh is averaging 22.7 points per game on the road versus teams that allow 21.4 points per game. The Pitt “D” is allowing 11.3 points per game to teams that usually score 21.0 points per game.
The Steelers are 2-10-1 ATS on the road after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Steelers are 0-6-1 ATS within 3 of pick on the road after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Steelers are 0-7-1 ATS when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date. The Steelers are 6-14-1 ATS within 3 of pick after playing as a favorite. The Steelers are 0-6 ATS within 3 of pick after a win against a non-divisional opponent in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter.
The Ravens are 10-0 ATS as a home favorite versus a divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Ravens are 11-1 ATS at home when their dps was positive in their last three games. The Ravens are 9-0-2 ATS within 3 of pick when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Ravens are 8-1 ATS as a favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS as a favorite versus any team with more wins. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Ravens are 21-7 ATS as a home favorite after playing as a favorite. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite versus any team with more wins..
NFL teams are 25-6-2 ATS within 3 of pick when on a 3 game SU and ATS winning streak. NFL teams are 51-39 ATS as a home favorite when they won their last two home games.
We have an NFL Power System that tells us to Play ON a non-Thursday home team (not a favorite of more than 7 points) before a Saturday contest in its next game and off a home contest in its last game (not an ATS loss of 7+ points) vs. an opponent not before a Monday home contest in its next game, 12-0 ATS since 1990.
Our technical situational report has the Ravens in a positive situation in today’s matchup. Play ON teams with a Rushing Play Percentage FOR > than their opponents RP%F and the season fumble differential is not >0.5. This situations record is 71-15 ATS since 1994.
With strong fundamental, technical and situational support our selection on the Ravens is our 5* NFL Game of the Week!
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: 4* Atlanta Falcons -3
The Georgia Dome will be the site of today’s NFC South matchup between the host Atlanta Falcons and the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams enter today’s contest off of losses last week on the road.
Tampa Bay is in a tough scheduling situation after having played on the conference road on Monday Night in Carolina and now having to travel again to a division opponent.
Tampa was blown out by the Panthers on Monday Night Football losing 38 to 23 and the score doesn’t do the game justice. Tampa much like Atlanta is solid at home but they struggle on the road with a 3-4 record. Their defense has allowed 299 yards rushing to the Panthers, 108 yards rushing to Detroit and 183 yards rushing to Kansas City all on the road.
The Buccaneers defeated Atlanta 24 to 9 as a 7 point home favorite in the Falcons rookie QB Ryan’s first NFL road game. This was of course Ryan’s worst game of the season to date with 158 yards passing, 39% completion rate with a 0-2 TD/INT ratio and was sacked a season high four times in that game. The Buccaneers converted those two INT’s into ten points.
Atlanta is coming off a close loss at New Orleans last Sunday losing 29 to 25. In that game QB Ryan was the first QB to outperform Drew Brees in the Dome he had 315 yards passing with 73% completions and 1-1 TD/INT ratio while Brees threw for 230 yards with 56% completions and a 2-0 TD/INT ratio.
Ryan has raised his completion percentage each month of the season from 52.4% in September to 61% in October and 68% in November. He has led his team to a 5-1 SU and ATS record at home this season. Over the last five games his OL has only allowed him to be sacked one time. This is very important as the Bucs defense is predicated on getting pressure on the QB.
Tampa’s defense in four road games that they had 1 sack or less has seen them give up 464 yards and 38 points to Carolina, 438 yards and 24 points to New Orleans, 333 yards and 16 points to Denver and 384 yards and 27 points to Kansas City. This Bucs “D” is coming in off a very physical game against the Panthers on Monday Night and have not had the full recovery time for this game.
Home teams in the NFC South have posted a record of 22-2 SU and 18-7 ATS this season. A very tough hill to climb for the road weary Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers are 0-9-1 ATS as a road dog after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a divisional opponent. The Buccaneers are 4-14 ATS on the road after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Buccaneers are 1-9 ATS as a road dog when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS on the road after playing on the road as a dog.
We have two NFL Power Systems that are active for today’s contest. From Week 5 on, play AGAINST a division road underdog off a non-Thursday division road SU loss of 5+ points, allowing 149+ rushing yards in its last game, 9-0 ATS since 1995 and averages covering the spread by 17.3 points per game!
In Weeks 10-17, play ON a home favorite of 8 points or less with a TOTAL of 34-54½ points seeking revenge for a road SU loss, allowing 150+ rushing yards in the first matchup, 12-0-1 ATS since 1998.
Our technical situational report for this game has one positive system that is active. It tells us to Play ON teams with an above average Offense Rating and a SU win% >=.600 and a Kick-off Return Yardage For average >22. This situation’s record is 146-51 ATS since 1994.
Key Stat: Atlanta off their four previous losses have rebounded with wins and covered the spread in those games by 18, 8, 21 and 16 points.
With strong support on the fundamental, technical and situational set we will lay the short price here as the Falcons continue their winning ways at home.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Atlanta Falcons -3
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: 4* Arizona Cardinals -3
The University of Phoenix Stadium will be the site of today’s clash between the host Arizona Cardinals and the visiting Vikings from Minnesota. The Cards clinched the NFC West crown last week and are playing for the #3 seed in the NFC. The Vikings are playing for their playoff lives but have been distracted by the possible suspensions of the Williams brothers.
This is the second road game in a back-to-back for the Vikings in fact this is their fourth road game in the last five weeks. A very tough scheduling situation for them when you play a road back-to-back come home for a game and then play another road back-to-back, that last game is where they are and they may be suffering from fatigue at this point.
Vikings QB situation is in question but it appears they will go with Tavaris Jackson on Sunday. His inconsistency in the passing game is why he was benched earlier this season and they will have to rely on their rushing attack against the Cards on Sunday. The Cards are not known for their defense but they are seventh in the league against the rush in yards per attempt with a 3.7 average.
Last week versus the Detroit Lions the Vikings only had a 31 yard edge in total offense. They will certainly need huge performances out of RB Adrian Peterson and QB Tavaris Jackson to have a chance here on Sunday.
Arizona is playing their third home game in four weeks and they have gone 5-1 SU at home this season only loss came at the hands of the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants.
Arizona is led by QB Kurt Warner who throws to the trio of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston who have combined for 233 catches for 3,015 yards and 22 touchdowns. Opposing defenses have found that trio to be very difficult to contain much less stop.
Warner has passed for 301 yards per game with 73% completions and a 12-3 TD/INT ratio at home this season. The lack of a consistent rushing attack may eventually lead to the playoff demise of this Cardinals team but they should have enough to get the home win over the Vikings on Sunday.
The Vikings are 5-18 ATS versus any team with the same record. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS on the road after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Vikings are 5-16-2 ATS within 3 of pick on the road. The Vikings are 2-13 ATS within 3 of pick versus any team with the same record. The Vikings are 4-17-1 ATS as a road dog after a straight up win. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS as a road dog after playing as a TD+ favorite. Minnesota is 4-22 ATS playing in their final road game of the season.
The Cardinals are 11-3 ATS within 3 of pick at home versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS within 3 of pick at home when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Cardinals are 12-5 ATS within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS as a favorite when their rushing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. Arizona is 6-0 ATS when installed as a 3 point or less home favorite.
NFL teams are 70-45-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL teams are 7-21-3 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week on the road as a favorite.
Data base research has uncovered an NFL Power System that is active for today’s game. Play ON a non-division home favorite of 3 points or less with a TOTAL of 34-46 points off a SU & ATS win as a home favorite of more than 3 points last week, 17-0-1 ATS since 1990 and averages covering the spread by 10.5 points per game.
With strong technical, situational and fundamental support for our selection we will back the host here as the Cards get the SU win and cover on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Arizona Cardinals -3
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Prediction: 4* Tennessee / Houston OVER 44.5
The Houston Texans host their divisional-rival the Tennessee Titans on Sunday afternoon at Reliant Stadium. The Texans are out of the playoffs but the Titans are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They currently hold a two-game lead over second place Pittsburgh.
The Titans have a pair of running backs Chris Johnson and LenDale White who make up one of the league’s best tandems. The talented duo is coming off another fine performance on the ground, and rookie Chris Johnson eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark against the Browns last week.
Tennessee leads the all-time series with Houston, 11-2, and has won seven straight against its AFC South rival including a 31 to 12 home victory in Week 3. Last season, the Titans won a wild 38 to 36 affair at Reliant Stadium in Week 7, and prevailed by a 28 to 20 count when the clubs met at LP Field in Week 13.
Houston is riding high with nothing to lose, and would enjoy nothing more than to spoil Tennessee's hopes for home-field advantage at least for this week. The Texans have won three in a row and are shooting for the first four-game winning streak in franchise history.
Starting quarterback Matt Schaub returned under center in last week's 24 to 21 win at Green Bay after missing four games with a knee injury, passing for a career-best 414 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
Schaub leads a passing offense that is averaging 264.4 yards through the air this season (4th overall). Houston's offense has also averaged a league-leading 422.7 yards per game over the last three weeks.
Top wide-out Andre Johnson has 92 receptions, 1,201 yards and 5 TD’s. He had four catches for 55 yards and a score at Green Bay and is averaging 122.3 receiving yards per game at home this season. Kevin Walter has 55 receptions, 851 yards, and leads the Texans with eight scoring catches. He only needs one more scoring grab to establish a new team season record.
Houston rookie running back Steve Slaton has rushed for 100 yards in back-to-back games and three times over the past four weeks to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the season.
Titans QB Kerry Collins has thrown for 2,280 yards, 11 TD’s, and only 6 INT’s. He has done a remarkable job of making the plays when needed and managing the game. Collins has eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions over the last eight weeks. Collins was not sacked last week and has been taken down just four times over the previous five games.
Tennessee tight end Bo Scaife with 50 receptions and 2 TD’s is the top receiver on the team, while Justin Gage has 26 receptions and leads the Titans with five touchdown catches. Gage is averaging 18.1 yards per catch this season.
Houston's pass defense is rated 18th in the league this season, allowing 215 yards through the air per game and their rush defense is allowing 127 yards per game this season. The Titans should be able to take advantage of the Houston defense both on the ground and through the air.
Houston is averaging 23.5 points per game while their defense is allowing 25.5 points per game. Tennessee is averaging 27.2 points per game on the highway this season while their defense is giving up 14.2 points per game.
The Titans are 13-2 Over the week after in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 6-1 Over on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week at home. The Titans are 7-0 Over the week after at home in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 13-5 Over on the road when they won and covered their last two games. The Titans are 10-2 Over versus a divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Titans are 5-1 Over on the road when facing a divisional opponent that has a worse record.
The Texans are 14-2 Over at home after playing on the road as a dog. The Texans are 12-1 Over when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Texans are 11-0 Over as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Texans are 8-1 Over at home versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Texans are 9-1 Over as a dog after a straight up win as a dog. The Texans are 13-3 Over versus a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Texans are 14-3 Over at home after playing on the road. The Texans are 12-1 Over versus a divisional opponent. The Texans are 6-0 Over as a home dog after a straight up win as a dog.
Data base research has uncovered these systems that are active for today’s matchup. NFL teams are 21-9 Over as a favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak. NFL teams are 51-29-2 Over as a favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. NFL teams are 52-35-5 Over at home versus any team with more wins. after playing on the road. NFL teams are 40-29 Over as a dog when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. NFL teams are 13-4 Over as a home dog when they passed for at least 100 more yards last week than their season-to-date average.
With strong fundamental, situational and technical support for the “Over” in this contest we will make this our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tennessee / Houston OVER 44.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: 3* Green Bay / Jacksonville Over 45
As the NFL regular season winds down you get teams fighting for playoff spots and others looking to be spoilers or just tossing in the towel for this year. Today we have two teams that had high expectations coming into the season but neither will make a playoff appearance this season.
The Packers are coming in off a loss last week at home to the Houston Texans 24 to 21. In that game the Packers rushed for 108 yards and passed for 279 yards. Not a bad day offensively but on defense they allowed 141 yards rushing and 408 yards passing. The Pack has given up 416 and 361 total yards their last two games on the road.
The Jags and Pack rank near the bottom of their respective conferences in defensive yards per point. We expect both offenses who can throw the football to take full advantage of this weakness.
The Jacksonville passing game with the exception of when they played Chicago and Tennessee’s defense has thrown for 262, 286, 227, 221 and 267 yards respectively. They should find the going much easier against this weak Packers pass defense and that should translate into easy touchdowns.
Green Bay’s passing attack ranks number 1 in the NFC in yards per point and this Jags defense ranks near the bottom in yards per pass. Both solid indications of what we believe will be a shootout in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon.
The Packers are 12-3 Over as a favorite when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Packers are 10-1-1 Over as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Packers are 16-4-1 Over as a road favorite. The Packers are 6-0 Over the week after a game in which they benefited from at least four turnovers. The Packers are 12-2 Over on the road the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. GREEN BAY is 21-8 Over in all games over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 12-4 Over as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 16-5 Over when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. GREEN BAY is 6-0 Over in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. GREEN BAY is 11-1 Over after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1992. GREEN BAY is 6-0 Over in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
The Jaguars are 11-2 Over at home after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 18-5 Over after playing on the road. The Jaguars are 11-1-1 Over after playing as a dog. The Jaguars are 17-7-1 Over since October 28, 2007. The Jaguars are 9-1 Over after playing on the road as a dog. The Jaguars are 10-3 Over at home after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks. The Jaguars are 14-3 Over within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent. The Jaguars are 12-4-1 Over versus a non-divisional opponent. The Jaguars are 5-0 Over within 3 of pick when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. JACKSONVILLE is 8-1 Over in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 11-3 Over in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 18-5 Over when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 6-0 Over off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
Our technical report for this game includes a situation that tells us to Play OVER NFL teams after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, with a team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season, 27-7 Over the last five seasons.
Data base research has uncovered several systems that are active for today’s contest. NFL teams are 17-2 Over as a favorite the week after a straight up loss at home as a favorite in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 20-2 Over as a road favorite after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. NFL teams are 54-34-3 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. NFL teams are 20-9-2 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. NFL teams are 45-18-2 Over within 3 of pick versus a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. NFL teams are 22-8-1 Over at home when they lost by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks.
With strong technical, fundamental and situational support we will make the “Over” in today’s matchup our NFL 3* Total Play of the Day!
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Green Bay / Jacksonville Over 45