Charlies
500* Kansas City +7
30* Pittsburgh +3½
20* Buffalo -9½
20* Houston +5½
10* Carolina +3½
10* Indianapolis -4
Northcoast Full Service Line
Pro Play Of Week Ariz Cards
AFC Play Of Week Colts
ADVANTAGE SPORTS
Saints/Broncos Over 51
Steelers/Eagles Under 45
Cardinals/Redskins Over 42
Forty Niners
PSYCHIC
2 units Miami +13
2 units Seattle -9
5 units Cleveland +3
DA STICK
5 units Oakland +9.5
10 units Minnesota -3
10 units Detroit +4.5
10 units Denver -5.5
15 units Dallas -3
DA STICK NFL TEASER OF THE WEEKEND
10 units Oakland +19.5, Detroit +14.5, Dallas +7
DA STICK UNDERDOG OF THE DAY
10 units Detroit +4.5
Tom Freese
10* Dog
Carolina
Special K
SUPER K
20* DALLAS/GB OVER
C-Stars Sports
1000 Units NFL Division Total Game Of The Year! Jacksonville/Indianapolis over the total
When INDIANAPOLIS COLTS team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a non conference game - Scored 17 points or more FOR in their last game - Coming off a Road win 7-3 O/U in this spot. When INDIANAPOLIS COLTS team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite - Before a division game - Coming off 1 ATS win 9-1 O/U in this spot. Over is 7-1-1 in Jaguars last 9 road games. Over is 7-3 in Colts last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Over is 8-2-2 in Jaguars last 12 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
1000 Units NFC Lock Of The Month! Washington Minus the points Over Arizona
When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - Playing on grass surface 38-7 SU in this spot. When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as a pk to -3.0 home Favorite - With 6 day off - After a conference game 8-2 ATS in this spot. When WASHINGTON REDSKINS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Conference Opponent - Before a division game 35-6 SU in this spot. When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as Road team as a Underdog - With 6 day off - Last 5 years 5-25 SU in this spot.
1000 Units NFL Underdog Shocker Of The Month! Cleveland Plus the points Over Baltimore
Browns are 11-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Browns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 3. Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
1000 Units NFL Total Lock Game Of The Year! Tampa Bay/Chicago under the total
When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Non Division Opponent - During Week 1 to 4 2-12 O/U in this spot. When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - During the month of September - Before a non division game 4-17 O/U in this spot. When TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - During the month of September 0-10 O/U in this spot.
1000 Units Top Play Detroit Plus the points San Francisco
50 Units Houston Plus the points Over Tennessee
50 Units Buffalo Minus the points Over Oakland
50 Units New Orleans plus the points Over Denver
Sixth Sense
3% TENNESSEE –4.5
3% WASHINGTON –3
3% SAN FRANCISCO –4
3% JACKSONVILLE +5
3% BALTIMORE –2.5
3% GREEN BAY +3
Kelso
Chairman
10 units Packers +3
10 units Pack/Cowboys Under 51.5
5 units Parlay Both
Best Bets
5 units Carolina +3
4 units Arizona +3
3 units Oak/Bills Under 36.5
EZWINNERS MLB
1 STAR: (958) ATLANTA (+$111) over NY Mets
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $111)
1 STAR: (976) KANSAS CITY (+$130) over Chicago
(Action) (Risking $100 to win $130)
Sixth Sense
3% TENNESSEE –4.5
3% WASHINGTON –3
3% SAN FRANCISCO –4
3% JACKSONVILLE +5
3% BALTIMORE –2.5
3% GREEN BAY +3
Thanks
EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
WILLIE "D"
Elite WASHINGTON
Blue Chip OAKLAND/BUFFALO UNDER
Opposite Action HOUSTON
"LEGS" DIAMOND
Bookie Nightmare Play MINNESOTA
Bookie Nightmare Play KANSAS CITY
Bookie Ball Buster play DETROIT
Bookie Ball Buster play DALLAS
RANDY MITCHEL
Diamond MINNESOTA
Platinum DETROIT/SAN FRANCISCO UNDER
PPP
4% Tennessee Titans
4% Denver Broncos
4% San Francisco 49ers
3% Baltimore Ravens
3% Atlanta Falcons
Wildcat
Chicago Bears
Sixth Sense
3% TENNESSEE –4.5
3% WASHINGTON –3
3% SAN FRANCISCO –4
3% JACKSONVILLE +5
3% BALTIMORE –2.5
3% GREEN BAY +3
ATLANTA –5.5 Kansas City 36.5
KC was beaten badly last week by Oakland getting out gained 5.5yppl to 3.1yppl, including allowing Oakland 300 yards rushing at 6.4ypr. They get Atlanta this week who came back to earth last week at Tampa Bay, losing 9-24. They were out gained in that game 5.1yppl to 3.6yppl. Atlanta averages just 5.9yppl against 6.4yppl but 6.0ypr against 5.1ypr. They allow 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl so they are just above average on the defensive side of the ball. KC averages just 3.4ypr against 4.0ypr and 4.1yps against 5.9yps for a total of 3.8yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense they allow 5.7ypr against 4.9ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Atlanta qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 117-59-10 and plays against them this week. That situation went 5-1 last week. Atlanta qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Early season numbers, which aren’t terribly reliable favor Atlanta by six and predict about 29 points. KC starts Tyler Thigpen this week and with a week of preparation he might fare better. Hard to take points here with a KC team that can’t move the ball, doesn’t play great defense and is weak against the strengths of Atlanta. ATLANTA 17 KANSAS CITY 10
BUFFALO –9 Oakland 36.5
Both teams stepped up for me in Best Bets last week. Oakland rushed for 300 yards at 6.4ypr but only 55 yards passing at 3.2yps. They held an anemic KC offense to just 3.1yppl. Buffalo went to Jacksonville and out played the Jags, gaining 5.3yppl to just 4.3yppl, including a nice 7.5yps. Oakland averages 5.8ypr against 5.3ypr but just 4.9yps against 7.4yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 6.3yppl. The defense is about average, allowing 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. Buffalo averages 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl and allows 4.0yppl against 4.1yppl. Oakland qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42, including a subset, which is 510-393-30. I can’t make Oakland a best bet because they just aren’t throwing the ball well enough to come back if they get behind. Numbers favor Buffalo by 15 and predict about 35 points. I will lean the way of Buffalo because of the value but it’s a weak lean at best. BUFFALO 24 OAKLAND 13
TENNESSEE –4.5 Houston 39
Tennessee dominated a bad Cincinnati team last week, rushing for 177 yards at 4.3ypr and averaging 4.7yppl to just 3.8yppl for Cincinnati. Weather conditions weren’t good with strong winds, which probably helped Tennessee, who doesn’t throw the ball well anyway. Houston was off because of Hurricane Ike. Houston averages 4.0yppl against 3.8yppl and allows 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl. Tennessee averages 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl and their defense allows 3.5yppl against 3.6yppl. The Titans have won three in a row here against Houston and five out of six played here. Houston is just 5-24 SU in their history on the road against a .500 or better team with their average loss by 14 points, not including week one games. Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42, including a subset, which is 510-393-30. Numbers favor Tennessee by 21 points and predict about 58 points. Those numbers aren’t very reliable, especially when you consider Houston has played just one game this year. Better defense, better running game, value and at home make it worth a shot on Tennessee. TENNESSEE 36 HOUSTON 21
NY GIANTS –13.5 Cincinnati 41.5
Giants beat a bad Rams team easily last week, gaining 200 yards rushing at 6.5ypr and passed for another 241 yards at 7.8yps for a total of 7.1yppl. They held the Rams to just 3.7yppl. Cincinnati was beaten badly at home against Tennessee, being out gained in windy conditions 4.7yppl to 3.8yppl. Cincinnati averages 3.5yppl against 3.4yppl and allows 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl, which makes them about average from the line of scrimmage. The Giants have been average on offense, gaining 6.1yppl against 6.1yppl but allowing just 3.9yppl against 4.7yppl on defense. I don’t have any situations on this game but numbers favor NY by 17.5 points and predict about 37 points. Not in favor of laying a bunch of points in an NFL game but Cincinnati is a bad team and it’s only a matter of time before Marvin Lewis is gone. NY GIANTS 24 CINCINNATI 13
WASHINGTON –3 Arizona 42
Arizona dominated a bad Miami team last week, gaining 7.5yppl against 4.1yppl, including throwing for 13.0yps and 364 yards. In their first game they were dominated by SF but won the game because of five SF turnovers. Last week, at home, they beat a bad team. Washington struggled to beat NO but out played them, gaining 6.6yppl against 4.6yppl, including throwing for 8.1yps and running for 4.8ypr. NO scored 14 of their 24 points last week on special teams or drives of 27 yards or less. Arizona throws the ball well, with last weeks numbers probably skewing the numbers. They average 8.9yps against 7.3yps but they rush for just 2.7ypr against 3.5ypr. Overall they average 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they allow 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. Washington averages 6.5yps against 5.2yps and allows just 4.9yppl against 6.1yppl, including a very solid 5.5yps against 7.2yps. Washington qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42, including a subset, which is 510-393-30. This game qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 62-23-2. Numbers favor Washington by 3.5 points and predict about 32 points. No rushing game for Arizona and the strength of their game – passing – plays right into the strength of the Redskins. WASHINGTON 24 ARIZONA 10
NEW ENGLAND –12.5 Miami 36
Miami was throttled last week at Arizona, losing 10-31 and allowing Arizona to throw for 13.0yps and 7.5yppl while gaining just 4.1yppl themselves. NE was out played at NY from the line of scrimmage, 5.2yppl to 4.4yppl but won the game 19-10. For NE, 13 of their 19 points were scored on drives of 31 yards or less. Miami averages just 4.2yppl against 4.7yppl and allows 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. NE averages 5.1yppl against 5.0yppl but they are allowing 4.9yppl against 4.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game and the numbers favor NE by 13 points and predict about 43 points. NEW ENGLAND 27 MIAMI 13
CHICAGO –3 Tampa Bay 35.5
Bears lost a tough game at Carolina last week, 17-20. They out gained Carolina 4.1yppl to 3.9yppl but scored 14 of their 17 points on special teams or very short drives. TB dominated Atlanta at home, winning 24-9, gaining 5.9ypr and 5.1yppl to 3.6yppl overall. Tampa Bay averages 6.5ypr against 5.2ypr, but just 4.6yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.3yppl against 5.7yppl. Their defense has been good, allowing just 3.7ypr against 5.0ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.9yppl. Chicago averages 4.6yppl against 4.9yppl, including just 4.9yps against 5.5yps. The Bears defense has been good this year allowing just 4.6yps against 5.5yps and 4.2yppl against 4.8yppl. Chicago qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 117-59-10 and plays against them this week. That situation went 5-1 last week. TB qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 65-25-2, including 40-11-2 for away teams in that situation, and 22-7 during week three of a season. Numbers favor Chicago by seven points and predict about 32 points. Situations favor TB and value favors Chicago without the situations and TB with the situations. No Joey Galloway for TB in this game and their inability to throw the ball so far this year worries me enough to stay off this game but I will lean towards TB. TAMPA BAY 17 CHICAGO 13
MINNESOTA –3.5 Carolina 37.5
Vikings are really struggling and will replace Tarvaris Jackson with Gus Freotte at quarterback, supposedly for the rest of the season. While Freotte should help their passing game with his ability to throw better, I’m not convinced it will be a better move for the Vikings. They still lack quality receivers, which is at least half of their problems. Freotte is also much less mobile and he will take more sacks than Jackson because of that. The Vikings were out gained 5.1yppl to 4.8yppl and they threw for just 4.4yps, while rushing for 5.1ypr last week against Indy. Their passing game is non-existent and because of that they can’t come from behind. Last week it forced them to kick five field goals because they can’t score when they get close to the goal line. They also allowed 6.7yps to Indianapolis. Carolina defeated Chicago 20-17 and were out gained 4.1yppl to 3.9yppl but 14 of Chicago’s 17 points came on a blocked punt and a short drive. Carolina averages 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl but they will get Steve Smith back at receiver this week, which should help the offense. They allow just 4.9yppl against 5.8yppl, including just 5.8yps against 7.3yps. Minnesota is an average team, gaining 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl and they allow 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game and the numbers favor Minnesota by 3.5 points and predict about 24 points. Very hard for me to take a Minnesota team that can’t move the ball through the air and allows 7.2yps against 6.7yps on defense. CAROLINA 16 MINNESOTA 10
SEATTLE –9.5 St Louis 43.5
Seattle isn’t very good this year but St. Louis is really bad. The Seahawks were out gained last week at home against SF 5.8yppl to 4.9yppl. They allowed SF to throw for 6.8yps and that includes the eight sacks they had on SF, which means SF did a very good job of moving the ball through the air. The Rams were smoked at home against the Giants, allowing 6.5ypr, 7.8yps and 7.1yppl, while gaining just 3.7yppl, including just 3.5yps. St. Louis averages just 3.9yps against 5.6yps and 3.7yppl against 4.7yppl. They allow a whopping 9.4yps against 7.5yps and 7.2yppl against 6.2yppl. Seattle hasn’t been very good, as they average just 4.4yppl against 4.2yppl and allow 5.7yppl against 5.8yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game and the numbers favor Seattle by 11.5 and predict about 50 points. Hard to take a team on the road who doesn’t throw the ball well and plays bad defense. Seattle has been decimated at the receiver position this year but did pick up a couple of veterans this week through the pick up wire and a trade. SEATTLE 30 ST LOUIS 20
SAN FRANCISCO –4 Detroit 46.5
I wonder if Tom Jackson of ESPN still thinks Detroit will win their division. They were throttled last week by GB, getting out gained 6.5yppl to 5.0yppl, including allowing 8.3yps. SF fell behind 0-14 at Seattle but came back and won the game in OT, 33-30. They deserved the win as they out played Seattle from the line of scrimmage, 5.8yppl to 4.9yppl. SF lost their first game of the season to Arizona but badly out played Arizona from the line of scrimmage but committed five turnovers. I like the 49ers this year. They have a pretty good defense, can run the ball and now have a quarterback that can throw the ball with the help of Mike Martz. The quarterback still gets sacked too many times in a Martz offense, which included eight times last week. Detroit averages just 3.4ypr against 4.9ypr but 5.9yps against 5.3yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl, which makes their offense average. On defense, they are getting smoked, allowing 6.1ypr against 5.4ypr, 9.1yps against 7.0yps and 7.4yppl against 6.2yppl. The 49ers average 4.7ypr against 3.9ypr, 7.1yps against 6.5yps for a total of 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 5.1yps against 6.2yps and a total of 4.4yppl against 5.0yppl. SF qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42, including a subset, which is 510-393-30. Numbers favor SF by 12 points and predict about 58 points. SF runs the ball well, Detroit doesn’t stop the rush or the pass, and will bring their passing game up against a very good 49er secondary, making it tough to win this game. Value and situations greatly favor SF, who is still underrated. Add in some motivation for Mike Martz to defeat the team who just fired him. SAN FRANCISCO 34 DETROIT 20
DENVER –5 New Orleans 51
Really like what the Broncos are doing this year (at least on offense) although they were out played last week against SD, 6.5yppl to 8.8yppl. SD had some big plays in the passing game that led them to an 11.1yps average. NO lost a close game at Washington, 24-29, but were out played in that game, 6.6yppl to 4.6yppl. NO averages 7.8yps against 6.1yps and 6.0yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 5.8ypr against 5.3ypr, 6.3yps against 5.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. Denver averages 4.9ypr against 4.6ypr, 8.4yps against 6.3yps and 6.9yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 8.8yps against 7.6yps and 7.0yppl against 6.3yppl. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. This game also qualifies in an early season under situation, which is 62-23-2. Numbers favor Denver by 9.5 points and predict about 65 points. I will lean Denver’s way and to the over but the situation on the under and the high total are enough to keep me off of the over as a best bet. DENVER 37 NEW ORLEANS 28
PHILADELPHIA –3 Pittsburgh 44.5
Philly made the game close against Dallas last week but they were out played at the line of scrimmage, 7.0yppl to 5.3yppl. They allowed Dallas 10.4yps but did hold Dallas to just 2.8ypr. Pittsburgh played at Cleveland and dominated that game, 5.3yppl to 3.5yppl in very windy conditions. The Steelers averaged 7.4yps and held Cleveland to just 2.1ypr and 4.6yps. Philadelphia qualifies in a negative early season situation, which is 117-59-10 and plays against them this week. That situation went 5-1 last week. Philly averages just 3.4ypr against 4.6ypr but 8.4yps against 7.6yps for a total of 6.4yppl against 6.3yppl. They allow just 2.7ypr against 3.9ypr and 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl. Pittsburgh has struggled throwing the ball, averaging just 6.8yps against 8.2yps and just 5.2yppl against 6.1yppl. The defense has been good against the rush, allowing just 2.8ypr against 3.5ypr and 3.8yppl against 4.0yppl. Numbers favor Philadelphia by just two points and predict about 49 points. Roethlisberger has a bad shoulder and that’s enough for me to sit on the sideline and not make them a best bet. PHILADELPHIA 23 PITTSBURGH 21
INDIANAPOLIS –5 Jacksonville 41.5
Both of these teams have been decimated with injuries, especially to the offensive line this year. Add Bob Sanders on defense to that list and that will really hurt Indy. Indy struggled through a little more than a half last week before finally getting their offense going at Minnesota. They averaged 5.1yppl to 4.8yppl for Minnesota but rushed for just 1.3ypr. Jacksonville was dominated pretty badly against Buffalo, getting out gained 5.3yppl to 4.3yppl, including allowing 7.5yps. They held Buffalo to just 2.9ypr but gained just 3.6ypr themselves. These teams have disappointed this year but are pretty similar. Jacksonville averages just 3.7yppl against 3.8yppl and allows 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. Indy averages just 4.8yppl against 4.9yppl, including just 2.3ypr against 3.6ypr. They allow 5.0yppl against 4.8yppl. Indy qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 107-45-8 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Indy by 9.5 points before the situation and predict about 37 points. Jacksonville lost by three points here last year but have only had one game over the past six years where they lost by more than seven points. A seven point loss here wouldn’t get them the cover but they have played competitive games here. The situation is too strong to ignore and I will give the dog a shot. JACKSONVILLE 20 INDIANAPOLIS 17
BALTIMORE –2.5 Cleveland 38.5
Cleveland looked bad in the preseason on defense and they haven’t shown anything different during their first two games this year. They also lost Robaire Smith on defense this week as well. The offense, which was supposed to be the strength of this team has also been below average this year. Cleveland was out gained last week against Pittsburgh, 5.3yppl to 3.5yppl, including allowing Pittsburgh 7.5yps in windy conditions. Baltimore was off because of Hurricane Ike. Cleveland averages just 4.0yppl against 4.4yppl. They allow 6.6yppl against 6.3yppl. Baltimore is averaging 4.8yppl against 4.7yppl and allowing just 3.1yppl against 3.5yppl, including just 3.3yps against 3.9yps. The Ravens qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42, including a subset, which is 510-393-30. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 42-12-1. Numbers favor Baltimore by 14.5 points and predict about 21 points. Baltimore lost here last year to Cleveland in OT but they had dominated Cleveland here the four years previous to that. Cleveland doesn’t fare well against big, physical teams and Baltimore struggles against good defenses but this game is a good match up for Baltimore. Better rushing game and better defense along with value and situations. BALTIMORE 17 CLEVELAND 7
Dallas –3 GREEN BAY 51
Packers nearly blew a big lead last week to Detroit before bouncing back with the games final 24 points in the fourth quarter, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Packers out gained Detroit 6.5yppl to 5.0yppl, including 8.3yps. Dallas won a tight game against Philly but out gained Philly 7.0yppl to 5.3yppl, including passing for 10.4yps. Dallas has looked extremely good this year, gaining 4.3ypr against 3.8ypr, 10.2yps against 8.1yps and 7.4yppl against 6.1yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 3.4ypr but just 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl, including just 5.7yps against 6.8yps. Green Bay has scored the second most points in the league but they average just 6.5yppl against 6.6yppl while allowing 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. They are throwing for 8.2yps but against teams allowing 8.0yps. GB qualifies in a very strong fundamental rushing situation, which is 61-18-3. Numbers favor GB by seven points and predict about 64 points. The total is a little too high for me but they shouldn’t have any problems topping this number. Nice value with Green Bay and a strong situation in their favor. GB is worth a shot at this price. GREEN BAY 37 DALLAS 27
SAN DIEGO –8.5 NY Jets 44.5
SD lost in the last 30 seconds of the game last week for the second time in two weeks. To add insult to injury, they lost because of the wrong call on a fumble as well as having a call go against them early in the game because of a faulty review machine. They out gained Denver from the line of scrimmage, 8.8yppl to 6.5yppl, including 11.1yps. They did allow Denver 6.0ypr and 6.5yps. The Jets lost at home to NE 19-10 but out gained NE 5.2yppl to 4.4yppl. NE scored 13 of their 19 points on drives of 31 yards or less. The Jets average 4.2ypr against 3.6ypr but just 6.3yps against 7.6yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow just 4.4yppl against 4.6ypr so they have played good defense this year. SD has looked very good on offense, averaging 9.5yps against 7.3yps and 7.2yppl against 5.9yppl. They are allowing 5.4ypr against 4.8ypr but just 6.3yps against 7.0yps on defense for a total of 6.0yppl against 5.9yppl. SD qualifies in a negative situation based on their play from last week, which is 76-28-2 and plays against SD here. The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 636-517-42, including a subset, which is 510-393-30. Numbers only favor SD by a half point and predict about 48 points. The Jets defense is good enough to stay in this game and Brett Favre should be able to do enough to move their offense to be able to stay within the generous points here. SAN DIEGO 24 NY JETS 23