Sunday Service Picks:

Dr. Bob

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DALLAS (-12.5) 28 St. Louis 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Rams’ offensive line is horrible and that has caused problems with both the rushing attack (3.6 ypr) and the passing attack (5.2 yards per pass play) and I just don’t see them keeping up with a potent Dallas attack that has averaged 6.9 yards per play and just ripped up the Bears’ stout defense on Monday night. My ratings favor Dallas by 14 points in this game and using only games from this season would result in a projection of Dallas by 21 points. The Cowboys apply to a negative 45-108 ATS statistical profile indicator but I just can’t back the Rams.

MINNESOTA 17 Green Bay (-1.5) 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Packers have started the season at 3-0, but they’ve only out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 5.1 yppl in those 3 games. All 3 teams that the Packers have beaten are 1-2 on the season, but I do rate their schedule as considerably tougher than average given that Philadelphia and San Diego are presumably better than their records. I do rate Green Bay as a solidly better than average team because their young defense has gone from promising to very good this season, but the offense is actually just barely better than average thanks to the absence of a rushing attack (just 58 yards per game at 3.1 ypr). Brett Favre has played well in the Packers’ last two games, but he’s averaging a mediocre 6.2 yards per pass play for the season and I rate Favre at only 0.3 yppp better than average after compensating for opposing pass defenses. Favre and company will have trouble scoring in this game against a dominating Vikings defense that’s allowed just 4.5 yppl. Minnesota’s offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average with Kelly Holcomb at quarterback (based on his lifetime yppp numbers) but I rate the Vikings as a bit better than average overall thanks to their strong defense and better than average special teams. My ratings favor Minnesota by 1 point in this game and I like the Vikings even more thanks to a negative 20-63-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation that applies to Green Bay after last week’s upset home win. Minnesota, meanwhile, applies to a 107-44-3 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Vikings have the characteristics of a good home underdog. Unfortunately, Minnesota also applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. That week 4 angle is not nearly as strong as the angles favoring the Vikings, but its enough to keep me off Minnesota as a Best Bet at the current price. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of +3 or more (at -115 odds or better).

Chicago (-2.5) 23 DETROIT 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Lovie Smith has finally made the decision to bench ineffective quarterback Rex Grossman for veteran Brian Griese, whose career 6.1 yards per pass play average and 3.4% interception rate is better than Grossman’s career averages of 5.8 yppp and 4.2% interceptions (4.3 yppp and 6.7% int this season). The Bears’ offense should go from horrible to just a little below average and their defense should bounce back from their bad outing last Monday night against an explosive Dallas attack. Detroit’s offense will certainly present a good challenge, as the Lions are averaging a robust 6.1 yards per play this season against 3 solid defensive teams (Oakland, Minnesota, and Philly). However, throwing the ball over 50 times per game has led to 2 interceptions thrown per contest for quarterback Jon Kitna and the Lions’ defense isn’t good enough to keep opponents from taking advantage of turnovers. In fact, the Lions’ defense has been horrible in allowing 6.4 yppl and that’s more than just a product of last week’s 9.5 yppl allowed to the Eagles. Detroit also gave up 5.1 yppl to the bad offensive units of Oakland and Minnesota, who would combine to average about 4.7 yppl against an average defensive team. My ratings favor Chicago by 6 points with Griese at the controls (would have favored the Bears by 3 points with Grossman), but the Bears apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS week 4 situation. I’ll call for a 3 point Chicago victory.

ATLANTA 20 Houston (-2.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Super Bowl champion Colts last week. Atlanta has started the season with 3 straight losses by an average score of 10-21. While is seems obvious to take Houston, you should note that Atlanta has only been out-gained by 9 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play to 5.8 yppl, which is far from being horrible. Houston has gained and allowed 5.4 yppl but the Texans are a below average offensive team with star WR Andre Johnson out of action for a second straight week, as Matt Schaub simply has no other legitimate downfield targets. After averaging over 8 yards per pass play in each of the first two games with Johnson in the lineup the Texans averaged a mediocre 5.9 yppp last week against the Colts and Houston is now without top running back Ahman Green, who has averaged a solid 4.3 ypr. The rest of the running backs are all at 3.0 ypr or less, so the Texans offense isn’t looking very good in its current state. My ratings favor Houston by only 1 point in this game and Atlanta applies to a very good 83-38-3 ATS situation while Houston applies to a negative 123-184-18 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that the Texans have the characteristics of a bad road favorite. Unfortunately, the Falcons also apply to a negative 24-49-5 ATS game 4 situation but the technical analysis is still in favor of Atlanta overall. I like Atlanta plus the points and I’d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Baltimore (-4.0) 23 CLEVELAND 19
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Baltimore 23 Cleveland 17 if no TE Winslow for Cleveland
The Browns are a pretty decent team with Derek Anderson at quarterback, which has made up for a bad defense. Anderson has averaged a healthy 7.2 yards per pass play on 100 pass plays this season and his lifetime average of 6.4 yppp (on 225 pass plays) is enough evidence to suggest that he could be the real deal – although his interception rate continues to be far too high (4 in 98 attempts this year). Cleveland’s defense is not good but the Ravens have been struggling offensively (just 5.0 yards per play) and quarterback Steve McNair is not 100% healthy (he’s had to be replaced in all 3 games this season by less effective backup Kyle Boller. My ratings favor Baltimore by 4 ½ points is McNair plays the entire game at his normal effectiveness, which isn’t likely. I’ll pass on this one, although I’d lean with Baltimore if Cleveland TE Kellen Winslow is downgraded from questionable to doubtful or out with his injured shoulder.

MIAMI (-4.0) 19 Oakland 18
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Oakland finally broke their long losing streak by blocking the game winning field goal against Cleveland last week and that win should have the Raiders emotionally up this week as they prepare for the Dolphins. In fact, the Raiders apply to a very good 40-11-1 ATS situation that is based on that victory while Miami applies to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 angle. While the situational analysis is strongly in favor the Oakland the line value is not. Miami may be 0-3, but the Dolphins have gained 5.7 yards per play and allowed 5.2 yppl against a tougher than average schedule (Washington, Dallas and the Jets). Oakland, meanwhile, has been out-gained 5.4 yppl to 6.2 yppl by an average schedule (Detroit, Denver, and Cleveland). The Raiders have also been bad on special teams and my ratings favor Miami by 7 points in this game. Daunte Culpepper takes over at quarterback for the Raiders, but he’s averaged only 5.5 yards per pass play in 2-plus seasons without being able to throw to Randy Moss, so he’s not necessarily an upgrade over Josh McCown. The situations are strong enough to get me leaning with the Raiders plus the points.

NY Jets (-3.5) 23 BUFFALO 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bills may have caught a break with the injury to starting quarterback J.P. Losman, as Losman had averaged a pathetic 3.5 yards per pass play in the first 2 games and one play (he was injured on his first pass attempt). Rookie backup Trent Edwards averaged only 4.2 yppp on his 21 pass play, but that’s not all that bad for being thrown into the game without first team reps in practice and facing a tough Patriots’ defense on the road. Buffalo has a pretty good rushing attack and the Jets’ pass defense is so bad (8.0 yppp allowed) that Edwards could have pretty decent success in his first start. The Bills defense isn’t good either, but the 6.8 yards per play that they allowed came against 3 good offensive teams in Denver, Pittsburgh, and New England that have averaged a combined 6.5 yppl on offense this season. My ratings favor New York by only 1 ½ points and I’ll lean with Buffalo plus the points.

CAROLINA (-3.0) 23 Tampa Bay 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
David Carr will get the start at quarterback for injured starter Jake Delhomme and that is a downgrade for the Panthers, as Carr has been a below average quarterback in all but one season during his 5 seasons as a starter in Houston. Carolina has a good rushing attack, so their offense is still about average even with Carr, but Tampa Bay has a solid defense (4.8 yards per play allowed). Tampa’s offense has been the story, however, as Jeff Garcia has averaged 8.3 yards per pass play without throwing an interception this season. Carolina has been a bit worse than average defensively through 3 games and my ratings make this game a pick. Sadly, I cannot take the points with the underrated Bucs because Tampa applies to a negative 47-92-4 ATS road letdown situation. I’ll pass on this one.

SAN FRANCISCO 21 Seattle (-2.0) 20
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The 49ers beat the Seahawks in both games last season and I’ll lean with them to do so again. I was actually a bit surprised that Seattle was favored in this game, as I still don’t consider them anything more than an average team. In fact, the Seahawks have averaged 5.8 yards per play this season and they’ve allowed 5.8 yppl to a schedule of average strength. San Francisco has been worse than average so far this season, producing just 4.2 yppl while allowing 5.3 yppl, but the Niners’ offense is surely better than what they’ve shown so far after being a slightly better than average attack in 2006. My ratings favor San Francisco by 1 point and I’d consider the 49ers a Strong Opinion if the line goes to +3 points (at -115 odds or better).

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) 27 Denver 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
The Broncos barely beat bad teams Buffalo and Oakland and then were beaten 14-23 by a good Jacksonville team in Denver. What’s odd about Denver is that they’ve been out-scored 17.3 points to 19.0 points per game despite out-gaining their opponents 6.4 yards per play to 4.5 yppl. There has certainly been bad special teams play, but Denver should certainly be scoring more than they have been given how well they move the ball. The Colts look like a better overall team than last year’s Super Bowl champs, as their great offense (6.5 yppl) is being complimented by a good defensive unit that’s allowed just 4.7 yppl. My ratings favor Indy by 8 ½ points, so the line looks a bit too high.

SAN DIEGO (-11.5) 21 Kansas City 14
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
What is going on the with Chargers? Could it be the Norv Turner affect? Turner has a way of ruining teams when he takes over as a head coach, but I just don’t see how Turner is to blame for LaDainian Tomlinson averaging 2.3 ypr. Afterall, Turner helped put this offense together when he worked for the Chargers a few years ago and they’re running the same scheme that they ran so successfully last season. Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a sub-par year so far too, averaging just 5.8 yards per pass play (6.7 yppp last season). The San Diego defense is also not playing as well, as that unit has yielded 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I do expect the Chargers to start playing better, but so do the oddsmakers given the line on this game. Kansas City is struggling offensively as expected (4.3 yppl, but against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team) but the Chiefs’ defense has given up just 4.5 yppl this season and is clearly better than average even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. That defense should keep this game relatively close and my ratings favor San Diego by only 9 points - and the math would favor the Chargers by only 11 points if I used last year’s offensive and defensive numbers for San Diego. San Diego does apply to a negative 25-58-1 ATS week 4 situation and I’ll consider Kansas City a Strong Opinion at +11 points or more.

Pittsburgh (-5.5) 23 ARIZONA 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Matt Leinart was horrible last week before getting relieved by veteran Kurt Warner, who brought the Cardinals back from a huge deficit to tie the game against the Ravens before losing on a late field goal. Leinart will be back as the starter this week and the Cardinals have a below average offense with the second year quarterback at the controls. Arizona’s defense has been pretty good (5.1 yppl allowed) but they’ll have a tough time stopping a Pittsburgh attack that has averaged 6.2 yppl this season and has rushed for 199 yards per game at 5.8 ypr. The Steelers’ first two games were against bad defensive teams Cleveland and Buffalo, but Pittsburgh racked up 6.5 yppl last week against a solid 49ers defense. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 4.3 yppl to 3 below average offensive teams (Cleveland with Frye at quarterback, Buffalo, and SF) but they’re an above average unit even after compensating for strength of opposing offenses faced. My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 6 points and there are situations going against each team.

Philadelphia (-2.5) 27 NY GIANTS 26
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Sep-30 - Stats Matchup
Both of these teams got their first win last week and both teams will be fighting to avoid a 1-3 start. I rated the Eagles as the best team in the NFC heading into this season and I still think that is the case (only Dallas is even in the discussion). The Eagles busted out offensively last week and McNabb and company should enjoy more success tonight against a Giants defense that’s allowed 6.1 yards per play this season. New York has actually played at a decent level the last two weeks on defense after getting overwhelmed in Dallas in their opener, but I still rate New York’s stop unit as slightly worse than average. New York’s offense has looked very good, as the rushing attack has been effective (4.7 ypr) and Eli Manning is showing signs of being a better than average quarterback (6.1 yards per pass play against a tough trio of defensive teams). Philadelphia has a better than average defense and they should be able to contain Manning and company in this game. My ratings favor Philly by 5 ½ points in this game, but New York applies to a solid 84-42-4 ATS momentum situation and that angle will get me leaning with the Giants.

New England (-7.5) 28 CINCINNATI 19
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-01 - Stats Matchup
It seems pretty obvious that New England’s unbelievably good offense (6.8 yards per play and 38 points in all 3 games) will score at will against a soft Cincy defense that’s allowed 6.4 yppl and 32 points per game. However, Cincinnati’s numbers have been skewed by one really bad game against Cleveland (9.0 yppl) and the Bengals actually allowed just 5.1 yppl combined in games against Baltimore and Seattle, so their defense really isn’t as bad as their season to date numbers would suggest. Cincinnati’s offense is once again one of the league’s best units, but the Patriots are playing great defense this season and have allowed just 3.9 yppl (although to teams that have combine to average just 4.3 yppl combined this season), so they ought to slow down the Bengals attack and win this game rather handily. My ratings favor New England by 9 points and using this year’s stats only would in a projection of Pats by 14 points. New England has won and covered all 3 of their games so far but teams that are 3-0 SU and ATS are only 13-23-2 ATS on the road in game 4, including 6-18-1 ATS in non-divisional games. I doubt that the Patriots will suffer a letdown but they’re unlikely to keep playing as well as they have. My ratings are based on realistic levels of play for the Patriots and I’ll call for a 9 point win.

ace-ace / allan eastman +57.55u ytd nfl

21 OAKLAND +4 1/2
20 KC UNDER 39
8 NYJ-3 1/2
5 HOU-3
4 PIT-6

3TEAM TEASER
3 KC +21 1/2 / OAK +14 1/2 / KC UNDER 49

chuck luck:

minn +1'
sea -2
okl +4'
rams +12'
den +9'
philly -3

Burns Total of Week **EARLY** (61% this millenium)
It's no secret that Ben Burns has a GRAND-MASTER RATING with his over/under picks. In fact, Monday's winner on the Saints/Titans "under" the the number, brought The Man to an ABSOLUTELY EPIC 177-115 his L292 NFL Totals. That's BETTER THAN 60% over almost 300 plays! This week's #1 TOTAL kicks-off EARLY.

Miami/Oakland UNDER (40 or better)

Burns #1 Non-Conference Game of the Week*21-11 L32
Despite settling for a split in Week 3 (3-3-1) Ben Burns remains an OUTSTANDING 21-11-1 his L33 NFL selections. Sure, that 64% STREAK is PRETTY SWEET. However, it's nothing when compared to Ben's MAGNIFICENT 513-398-27 MARK this millennium.

AZ (+4 or better)

Ben Burns' Divisional GAME OF THE YEAR (18-5!)
INCREDIBLE NFL STATS are one of the reasons why Ben Burns has been able to establish himself as one of the BEST HANDICAPPERS of the modern era. However, his "BIG GAME DOMINANCE" also played a MAJOR role! This Documented Champion enters the weekend with an REMARKABLE 18-5 RECORD with his L23 "GOY" releases.

San Fran

Ben Burns' 3-Game EXECUTIVE Report *EARLY KICK-OFF
Ben Burns went 2-1 with last week's "Executive Report" including EASY WINNERS with the Eagles and the Giants. Ben also had to "settle" for a 2-1 card with the previous Sunday's Executive Report, including a pair of EASY over/under WINNERS. This week's card, which contains TWO TERRIFIC TOTALS and one SWEET SIDE kicks-off EARLY.

Philly/NYG UNDER

KC/SD UNDER (37 or better)

Atl

PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB PLAYS FROM MARC LAWRENCE:

9/30/07 - NFL GOING DOWN
PLAY AGAINST any 3-0 ATS NFL team in Game Four of the season if they
won their first game of the season by 15 > points and are facing an
opponent that scored > 10 points in its previous game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 0-12
Play Against: Pittsburgh and New England

Rationale: NFL teams who open the year 3-0 ATS are quite popular
with the oddsmaker and the betting public. If they won their opening
game of the season in overwhleming fashion their following grows.
Put them up against a formidable opponent and they dissapoint, going
just 2-10 SU in this role as well.

VICTOR KING'S NFL O/U PAID for PICKS CONFIRMED

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These Come From His "TOTALS" TIPSHEET

3* Rams @ Cowboys Play over The Total

2* Texan's @ Falcons Play over The Total

2* Raiders @ Dolphins Play over The Total

MARC LAWRENCE NFL PAID for PICKS CONFIRMED

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4* Arizona +6
3* Atlanta +3
3* Minnesota +1.5
3* Cincinnati +7.5

MTI TEASERS

TEASER:
Oakland, Atlanta
Oakland, Detroit
Baltimore, San Diego, Carolina
Baltimore, Philadelphia, Carolina
San Diego, Philadelphia, Carolina

Valley 7-0 last week for about 25 units

5* TB +3
4* AZ +6
3* CLEV+4'
3* DEN +9'
3* STL o45'
3* NYG u48
2* SEA -2

North Coast Power Sweep:
2*...Falcons
2*...Browns
4*...Seattle
Pro Angles..Rated 3 of 4 Highest...Steelers...Denver
3*...New England
Oak/Mia...3* Under
Chi/Det...3* Under
St.L/Dal...2* Under
Pitt/Ari...3* Over
KC/SD...2* Over

NORM HITZGES NFL PLAYS

Regular season: NFL: 17-13

NFL

Double Play--SD - vs KC
Double Play--Arizona + vs Pittsburgh
Detroit + vs Chicago
Miami - vs Oakland
Cleveland + vs Baltimore
Minnesota + vs Green Bay
Dallas - vs St. Louis
San Diego/KC Under
Arizona/Pittsburgh Over
New England - vs Cincinnati
New England/Cincinnati Over

Jim Feist-Sunday
(207) HOU Texans vs (208) ATL Falcons Game Starts at September 30 2007 10:00 EST Take (208) ATL Falcons Inter-Conference Game of the Year (Falcons) :
Houston (2-1 SU/3-0 ATS) is an up-and-coming young team under second-year coach head coach Gary Kubiak. Assistant head coach and new offensive coordinator Mike Sherman has put in a plan for more balance to the offense for this fall and it has worked. They beat the Chiefs, 20-3, won at Carolina, 31-14, then had a rally fall short in a 30-24 loss (and cover) to the Colts. New QB Matt Schaub has been strong, and completed 27-of-33 against the Colts Sunday. But they are hurting, as new RB 30-year old Ahman Green left Sunday's game with a knee injury, and backup Ron Dayne was inactive because of bruised ribs, so the Texans had to rely on third-stringer Samkon Gado for the rest of the game. Also, ace WR Andre Johnson (left knee) didn't play. Rookie Jacoby Jones, who started for Johnson, left in the third quarter with a separated shoulder, and center Steve McKinney left with a knee sprain in the fourth quarter. Those are key pieces of this offense. Ball control will be key: in games in which Houston has kept possession for 32 minutes or more, they are 15-6. Atlanta (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) lost opening week 24-3 at Minnesota, followed by a 13-7 loss at Jacksonville and 27-20 loss at home to Carolina last Sunday. QB Joey Harrington has been inconsistent, though he is off a strong game: 31-of-44 for 361 yards, 2 TDs, no picks. Atlanta is 5-4 ATS its last 9 as a dog. The Falcons could have easily beaten Carolina last week and now that Harrington has some confidence and the Texans are banged up - we expect the Falcons to get their first win of the season. (215) STL Rams vs (216) DAL Cowboys Game Starts at September 30 2007 10:00 EST Take (216) DAL Cowboys Bonus NFL Personal Service Winner (Cowboys) :
Second straight road game for the Rams, who have had a disastrous start. It's also a bad match-up, as the Cowboys are an attacking, blitzing defense this season under new coach Wade Phillips and the Rams offensive line has been decimated. The Rams (0-3 SU/ATS) are without All-Pro left tackle Orlando Pace, out for the season with a serious shoulder injury. The injury has caused the Rams to scramble, since back-up tackle Todd Steussie is sidelined for at least half this season with a broken foot. Right tackle Alex Barron has moved to the left side in Pace’s place. QB Marc Bulger was sacked six times in Week 2. The Rams have two touchdowns in three games, and none in the second half. In Sunday's 24-3 loss at Tampa, Rams RB Steven Jackson will miss at least one week with a partial tear of his left groin. Rookie Brian Leonard, a second-round pick from Rutgers, will get his first start Sunday at Dallas. Dallas (3-0 SU/ATS) has a talented and balanced offense, with a 45-35 win over the rival NY Giants, a 37-20 rout at Miami and a 34-10 win at Chicago. New coach Wade Phillips wants to blitz a lot (which he did in 2006 as Chargers DC) and has the personnel to do it. Dallas was No. 4 in total defense last year, so he has a lot of talent to work with. Mobile young QB Tony Romo has 8 TDs and 2 picks. They outgained Chicago 431-239! There is excellent balance with RBs Marion Barber and Julius Jones and good targets in WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. Can't see the Rams offense mustering much offense here with an offensive line in shambles and their best weapon (Jackson) sidelined. The Cowboys will romp on Sunday.

NCAAF Chicks following = -24.50 units (10-16)
NCAAF Chicks Fade = +15.20 units (16-10)

NFL Chicks following = -1.90 units (32-29)
NFL Chicks Fade = -15.10 units (29-32)

Sunday card:
NFL Game of the Month 9 units - 222 San Fran +2
7 units - 210 Cleveland +4
7 units - 214 Minnesota Under 38
4 units - 226 San Diego Under 39
3 units - 214 Minnesota +1.5
2 units - 207 Houston -3
1 unit - 222 San Fran ML +110
1 unit - 210 Cleveland ML +180

Purelock

5* Carolina Panthers
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