Football Chicks released some early NFL in order for clients to take advantage before the line movements.
4 units - 416 Denver -3
3 units - 417 Cincinnati +3.5
Sunday Dr Bob
One Best Bet and 6 Strong Opinions.
Cincinnati (+3) 3-Star at +3 1/2, 2-Stars at +3.
Strong Opinions
Houston (+6)
Buffalo - New England UNDER (42)
Tampa Bay (-3 1/2)
Chicago (-3)
Dallas - Chicago UNDER (41 1/2)
Tennessee (+3 1/2)
3 Star Selection
***Cincinnati 26 SEATTLE (-3.5) 22
01:05 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
There aren’t too many people that are eager to jump on Cincinnati after they allowed an astounding 51 points at Cleveland last week. However, this is the perfect time to play the Bengals as the defense will no doubt be motivated by that embarrassing performance. Cincinnati applies to a very good 49-12-1 ATS bounce-back situation this week and that angle is 12-0 ATS if the team allowed 40 points or more in their previous game. The Bengals also apply to a solid 100-38-6 ATS situation that is based on their upset loss. Cincinnati’s offense certainly looks fine, as they did score 45 points in last week’s loss, and Seattle is a below average team that is having their own defensive issues after allowing 6.8 yards per play to Arizona last week. My ratings favor Seattle by 3 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points (-1.20 odds or better) or at +3 (+1.05 odds or better) and I’ll make the Bengals a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 (-1.10 to +1.05 odds) or at +3 ½ (-1.21 to -1.35 odds)
Strong Opinion
HOUSTON 23 Indianapolis (-6.0) 24
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Colts are now 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite after barely getting past the Titans last week and I look for that trend to continue. Houston is 2-0 with convincing wins over Kansas City and at Carolina last week and the Texans appear to be the real deal. It was assumed that quarterback Matt Schaub would upgrade a Houston offense with good talent at receiver and Schaub has not disappointed while averaging a robust 8.3 yards per pass play. Schaub is not going to maintain that blistering pace, but he is clearly a better than average quarterback. The problem for Schaub this week is the absence of star receiver Andre Johnson, who is about with a sprained knee. Johnson has averaged an incredible 13.1 yards per pass thrown to him this season and the rest of Schaub’s passes have averaged just 6.3 ypa (7.1 ypa to the other wideouts). What makes the Texans a better than average team is an improved defense that struggled with a young and inexperienced lineup last season. Those young players have blossomed and Houston has yielded just 3.9 ypr and 5.0 yards per pass play in two games. Last year’s #1 overall draft pick DE Mario Williams and rookie 1st round pick DT Amobi Okoye each have 2 sacks to their credit and there is star talent at linebacker (DeMeco Ryans) and in the secondary (CB Dunta Robinson). Peyton Manning leads another very good Colts’ offense and the defense has played well but my ratings would have only favored Indianapolis by 4 points with Johnson playing. Replacing Johnson’s great numbers with the average of the rest of the receiving corps makes a difference of 3 points, so I now favor Indy by 7 points. The reason for siding with Houston is a solid 66-24-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation and the Colts’ recent history as a road favorite. Houston, meanwhile, is 3-0 straight up in their last 3 games as a home underdog, including a 27-24 win over the Colts in week 16 last year, so they should have the confidence to win this game. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more and I’d make Houston a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 26 St. Louis 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Buccaneers bounced back from their opening day loss to Seattle with a resounding win over the Saints and I expect Tampa to win again this week over a struggling Rams team that has lost consecutive games as favorites to start the season. Teams that lose consecutive games as a favorite are only 42% ATS in their next game (since 1980) and St. Louis applies to a 43-86-2 ATS subset of that situation. I certainly don’t mind fading a Rams team with a banged up offensive line and my ratings favor Tampa Bay by 6 ½ points. The situation isn’t strong enough to make Tampa a Best Bet at -3 ½ points, but I’ll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I’d make the Bucs a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -1.15 odds or better)
Strong Opinion
CHICAGO (-3.0) 21 Dallas 14
05:15 PM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Cowboys have scored 82 points in two games, but it’s tough to maintain such a high level of performance in the NFL and teams that score 31 points or more in consecutive weeks are just 67-104-7 ATS the next week if they’re on the road. Dallas applies to a 2- 20-4 ATS subset of that situation and Chicago is certainly the team that can put an end to an offensive hot streak. The Bears have allowed just 4.0 yppl in their first two games and Dallas was held to just 5.3 yppl by Miami last week and only scored 37 points due to being +5 in turnover margin. Chicago’s offense has been horrible so far, averaging just 3.6 yppl, but quarterback Rex Grossman has a habit of following a bad game with a good game and I certainly don’t expect him to average 3.6 yards per pass play all season long (his career average is 5.9 yppp). Dallas has been below average defensively so far, allowing 6.0 yppl to the Giants and Dolphins, so the Bears certainly have a chance of breaking out of their offensive slump. My ratings only favor Chicago by ½ a point, but the situation against Dallas is strong enough for me to side with the Bears and this game also applies to a 55-17-2 UNDER angle. My ratings project 43 total points and the total opened at 43 points and has come down. I’m not going to give up the line value to make the UNDER a Best Bet, but I will consider UNDER 41 points or higher a Strong Opinion (2-Star Best Bet at 43 points or higher) and I will also consider Chicago a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Tennessee 24 NEW ORLEANS (-4.5) 23
05:30 PM Pacific, 24-Sep-07
The Saints have looked horrible so far this season, getting blown out by an average score of 12-36 by the Colts and Buccaneers. New Orleans isn’t as bad as they’ve shown the first two weeks, but a defense that’s allowed 11.5 yards per pass play is certainly a problem. Vince Young has not shown that he can beat a team through the air consistently, but he should have success when he needs to throw the ball in this game. The Titans are averaging 213 yards at 5.2 ypr, so they may not take full advantage of the Saints generous secondary. The most puzzling part of the Saints’ failure has been the play of Drew Brees, who was great last season and very good in the preseason but has averaged just 4.7 yards per pass play in the first 2 games. I expect Brees to return to being a good quarterback and my ratings do favor the Saints by 3 ½ points in this game, but Tennessee applies to a solid 52-20-2 ATS statistical profile indicator and the Titans have covered 9 consecutive times as an underdog, including a win over Jacksonville and a 2 point loss to the Colts last week. I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ points or more and I’d take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER - NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) 26 Buffalo 10
10:00 AM Pacific, 23-Sep-07
The Bills are struggling on both sides of the ball, as they’ve averaged just 3.7 yards per play while allowing 6.6 yppl in games against Denver and Pittsburgh. New England, meanwhile, has out-gained the Jets and Chargers by an average of 6.5 yppl to 3.7 yppl. This certainly looks like a blowout, but the Patriots could suffer a bit of a letdown after last week’s nationally televised romp over San Diego. My ratings favor New England by 16 points, so the line is pretty fair. This game applies to a very good 55-17-2 UNDER angle but my ratings forecast a total of 44 points and the negative line value is taking away some of the value of the situation. I’ll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 41 points or higher and I’d make the UNDER a 2-Star Best Bet at 44 points or higher.
Doc's nfl
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4 phil -6
4 N.o. -4.5
5 Cinc +3.5
Will Cover
Browns/Raiders UNDER the TOTAL. 4:05pm EST
COVER STORY: Well aware that both teams are 2-0 to the OVER so far this season, but we see a relatively low-scoring affair in this contest. The Browns and Bengals combined for 96 points last week and feel that the linesmaker has over-reacted to that result. This Raider defense is far superior to that of the Bengals and no way does Cleveland QB Anderson have another day like he did last week. Oakland may play QB Culpepper over McCown, but the Raider game plan is to run the ball with RB Jordan against a suspect Browns’ DL no matter who starts. The Browns also want to establish a ground attack behind RB Lewis, so the clock will be moving. Oakland has played to the UNDER 14 of 20 times off two SU losses and are 21-14 to the UNDER the last three years. Cleveland is 14-3 to the UNDER after allowing 21> points, 10-2 to the UNDER at this impost the last three seasons, and 21-13 to the UNDER the past three years!
Mike Rose
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks u50.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 23 '07 4:05p
Oh my god, I can’t believe it…the Cleveland Browns just scored another TD on the Bengals!!! Is the scoring ever going to stop?? Yeah, I know, the games been over for a week, but it just simply amazed me how a putrid Cleveland Browns offense was able to run roughshod all over a Marvin Lewis coached defense. Granted Cleveland will be better offensively this year, but come on!!! This guy might just be the most overrated defensive mind ever to grace an NFL sideline, or he just so happened to coach what was the second best defense ever to lace it up when he was Baltimore’s DC in their Super Bowl year.
Regardless, I expect Cincinnati to have done some major hitting and a number of defensive drills in practice this week, and they should be more than ready for what Seattle will bring to the table offensively.
The Seahawks had themselves a nice offense a couple years ago, but a few of the key cogs that helped that motor run are now gone, and I consider them to be more of a defensive team now. They improved themselves on that side of the ball this year in the off-season, but they got a bit of a wake up call last week when the Arizona Cardinals were able to move the ball up and down the field on them. HC Holmgren certainly ran practice by the book this week, and got it into his teams’ head that they won’t win any games if they allow teams to gain 430+ yards on them every week.
With both clubs getting embarrassed defensively last week, I expect both stop units to clamp down and stop the bleeding. Both coaches will also call for a more vanilla attack hoping to hold on to the ball longer knowing full well their defenses psyches took a blow last week.
Again, many will overreact this week and say that Cincy gave up 51 to Cleveland and the Seahawks gave up 23 to Arizona. How could this game not go ‘Over’?? That’s exactly what the man wants you to ask yourself. Don’t take the bait!!! Hit the ‘Under’ up and crack a cold one in victory when this ones all said and done.
Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears o41.0 (-110)
Sun Sep 23 '07 8:15p
All Eyes will be on the Windy City Sunday night as the (2-0) Dallas Cowboys take on the (1-1) Chicago Bears. Last week saw the Cowboys go into Miami and hand the Dolphins a 37-20 beat down in their own house. They put forth a brilliant second half that saw them turn a close game into a rout. They forced a number of turnovers, executed offensively, and cruised to the easy road win and cover. Chicago tripped and stumbled all over themselves en route to their first win of the season last week vs. KC, but the 10-point final spread made those that backed KC very happy.
It’s only the first quarter of the NFL season, but this is a very crucial game for both clubs since a post-season match-up is certainly within the realm of possibility. Many expect to see a defensive minded slugfest since the opening number of 43’ has been bought down to where it currently sits. I beg to differ however, and I’ll tell you why.
The Bears defense hasn’t been nearly as good as it was throughout most of 2006. Sure, they pretty much shut down LT in San Diego Week 1, but they allowed a very bad KC offense still trying to figure itself out to put 10 points on the board and churn out close to 300 yards of total offense. Dallas has been firing on all cylinders right out of the gates (41 PPG & 415 Total YPG), and this will no doubt be the Bears toughest test to date.
On the flipside, the Cowboys defense has stunk the joint up, and I foresee the Bears busting out of their offensive doldrums and putting a healthy tally on the board. Dallas’ secondary has given up six TD passes, and an average of 294 passing YPG. It’s allowed the Giants (Plaxico Burress) and Dolphins (Chris Chambers) main WR threats to absolutely torch them, and opposing QB’s Eli Manning and Trent Green completed 62 percent of their passes and posted an average passer rating of 83. As long as Chicago QB Rex Grossman avoids the errant throw, he should have his biggest game of the season.
Look for both clubs to find success on the offensive side of the ball, and for both clubs to combine to score a tad more than this number suggests. Slam the ‘Over’!!!!
New Orleans Saints -4.0 (-110)
Mon Sep 24 '07 8:30p
If you asked the average NFL fan what they thought the New Orleans Saints record would be heading into their Week 3 MNF match-up with the Tennessee Titans, they’d probably say 1-1. Figuring a loss at Indianapolis to open up the season, but bouncing back nicely in Week 2 at division rival Tampa. That however is not the case as the Saints did lose to Peyton and the Colts in an embarrassing fashion Week 1, but they came back and laid an absolute egg as 5-point road chalks to Tampa last week. I’m not sure what team took the field last week, but it certainly wasn’t the one that saw their season end in the NFC Championship game to Chicago last year.
This is where it gets interesting though. Now they’re back home for the first time this season taking on a Tennessee team that gave Indy all it could handle last week at home, and everyone and their mother seems to be enamored with the visitor. People just get too caught up with the here and now, and forget that this is a very long season. It’s all about what have you done for me lately, and this is when many a sports bettor gets killed.
I’m going to simply lay it all on the line here and state that there’s no way New Orleans loses this game, and I actually foresee them running away with this one. Now that they’re back in the comfy confines of the SuperDome with all their fans, the real New Orleans offense is going to explode. This group is pretty much back intact, if not better than a year ago, and this is the perfect setting for them to introduce themselves to the 2007-08 season. Don’t let last weeks defensive effort against Indianapolis fool you, the Titans are far from a dominating group, and playing on the fast track of the Superdome is going to expose them for what they truly are. A run of the mill stop unit that’s very young, and it will be taken advantage of by the likes of Brees, Bush, and Colston.
It’s quite possible that this line comes all the way down to a FG before kick-off. Let everyone expecting the Saints to roll over and die once again continue to buy it down, and then go for the kill and a solid winner in what should be a dominating effort from the home team.
Vegas Vic Sunday Plays:
RAIDERS (-3) over Browns
Professor Vic here, class. Can you give me the definition of mirage? Yes, we know it's a hotel in my hometown, but that's not important now. If you checked the dictionary, you would find: "something illusory and unattainable." If you checked the Vic-tionary, you would find: "Cleveland's performance Sunday." The Browns had not scored 51 points since 1989, when Bud Carson took over as head coach and Bernie Kosar was flinging rockets to the great Ozzie Newsome. And the Brownies ain't gonna do it again anytime soon, certainly not this season, and certainly not in Oakland. The Silver & Black had a 23-20 win in their hip pocket after Sebastian Janikowski booted a 52-yard field goal in overtime, but the crafty Mike Shanahan had just called a timeout that negated the kick. Janikowski missed the next real attempt, and the Broncos won, 23-20. Chalk up a best bet for the boiling-mad Raiders.
CHIEFS (-3) over Vikings
A team that manages only 13 points and averages 250 yards in its first two games probably doesn't deserve to be a top-two selection, but this is the NFL and Sundays are always crazy. And as always, there are reasons. Kansas City star running back Larry Johnson gobbled up 1,789 yards and scored 19 TDs last season. This year, he's at 98 yards and zero TDs. You know that's gonna change real quick. Then you have the humongous homefield edge. QB Damon Huard is 6-0 with a 107.3 passer rating as a starter at Arrowhead, and the Chiefs have won an amazing 20 of their last 24 at home against the NFC. And now, the defense, which ranks eighth in the league in yards allowed per game, gets back pass-rush specialist Jared Allen. With a stout 31-9 record in Kaycee the last 5 years, the Chiefs will get on the board with their first W.
EAGLES (-6) over Lions
Read my lips: There's no stinkin' way the Eagles will be 0-3. No matter how unispiring they have looked, I keep coming back to this one particular nugget: Detroit is 11-46 on the road since 2000.
Colts (-6) over TEXANS
Here's another team that ain't gonna be 3-0. Granted, Houston has had a nice start, but beating Kansas City and Carolina really is not gonna impress anyone. To compound the Texans' problems, they will be without star WR Andre Johnson, probably the offense's most important weapon. After barely squeezing past the Titans Sunday, we expect Peyton Manning to lead Indy to an easy double-digit victory.
Titans (+4) over SAINTS
As we mentioned last week, Tennessee is a money machine. The Titans are 2-0 against the spread this season and have covered 13 of their last 16. This is also the first Monday-night appearance for the multitalented Vince Young, and while he might not have the same results as when his Longhorns beat Reggie Bush and Southern California for the national championship, another cover is only 60 minutes away.
Bengals (+3) over SEAHAWKS
Cincinnati and Carson Palmer can pile up points and yards like very few in the NFL, so now all the Bengals must do is tighten up their defense. Leave it to defensive guru Marvin Lewis to press the right buttons.
Bills (+16) over PATRIOTS
Just when things couldn't get any darker for Buffalo (0-2) - or brighter for New England (2-0) - we're picking the Bills. Why? Check out the scores at Foxboro the last 2 years: Pats by 19-17 last year and by 21-16 in 2005.
I also like:
Chargers (-5) over PACKERS
JETS (-3) over Dolphins
STEELERS (-9) over 49ers
Cardinals (+8) over RAVENS
Rams (+3) over BUCCANEERS
BRONCOS (-3) over Jaguars
Panthers (-3) over FALCONS
Giants (+3) over REDSKINS
BEARS (-3) over Cowboys
MARC LAWRENCE PAID for NLF PICK
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PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB
9/23/07 - NFL
FALSE FAV
PLAY AGAINST an NFL non-division home favorite off a SU home dog wiin
if they won 6 < games last season vs. an opponent of a win or loss of
4 < points.
ATS W-L Record Since 1981: 14-0Play Against: Tampa Bay (therefore, play ON St Louis RAMS)
Rationale: Changing roles from one week to the next is difficult in
the NFL, especially for non-interested teams that aren't very strong
The rest of the NFL Sunday card for NFL Chicks...
NFL Total of the Year 10 units - 405 BUF/406 NEP Under 41
4 units - 403 Detroit +5.5
3 units - 402 KC -3
3 units - 414 Tampa -3.5
These were released and posted earlier in the week...
4 units - 416 Denver -3
3 units - 417 Cincinnati +3.5
Burns PERSONAL FAVORITE (12-2 L14 PFs) *EARLY KICK
Site regulars know all about Ben Burns' ABSOLUTE DOMINATION with his "Personal Favorites." These HIGHLY COVETED plays are currently on a INCREDIBLE 12-2 (86%) RUN including 1-0 this NFL season. That selection came in Week 1 when Houston HAMMERED KC by a score of 20-3.
KC (-3 or better)
Burns' NFL Total of the Week (176-114 Totals RUN!)
There's a reason why Ben Burns is so well respected throughout the industry and why his over/under picks have a GRANDMASTER RATING. That's because The Man is Documented, against totally unbiased lines, with an ABSOLUTELY AMAZING 176-114 (61%) RECORD with his L290 NFL totals.
Oak/Cle UNDER (38 or better)
ALERT Ben Burns' #1 NFC GAME OF THE MONTH!
Last month, Ben Burns released his highest rated play from the NFC during the month of August, his Preseason NFC Game of the Year, and the Green Bay Packers ABSOLUTELY SMASHED the Seattle Seahawks, winning by a score of 48-13. The TIME HAS COME for Ben to release his #1 NFC play from the month of September.
Chicago (-4 or better)
Ben Burns' 3-Game EXECUTIVE Report *1:00 EST KICK!
Ben Burns had to settle for a 2-1 card with last week's 3-Game Executive Report. Burns LOVES this afternoon's card and today he's GETTING OUT THE BROOM and going for the SWEEP. This COMMANDING CARD contains Ben's BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK and a pair of POWERFUL LIVE DOGS, including Ben's Contrarian Game of the Week
ATL (+3 or better) - Contrarian GOW
NYG (+3 or better)
Philly (-7 or better) - Blowout of the week
ace-ace / allan eastman +52.8u ytd nfl
22 KC OV 33 1/2
20 DEN OV 35 1/2
8 GB +5
6 ARI +8
4 TB -3 1/2
3 NYJ -3
3 DALL M/L +145
4 KC OV 23 1/2 / ARI +18 / GB +15 (10 pt tease)
Larry Ness' NFL Week Three 24* Play (1st of the '07 FB season!)
Larry's established himself as one of the most recognizable, respected and successful handicappers in the industry. The current FB season is his 24th and a 24* play not only represents his years in the business but is also the highest star rating he assigns any game. "Be there" for Larry's first 24* of the '07 NFL season!
My 24* play is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.
There are a number of phony 2-0 NFL teams but the Vikings are a phony 1-1 team! In Week 1 vs the Falcons, despite not running a SINGLE play in the red zone, Minnesota beat Atlanta, 24-3. The Vikings returned two interceptions for TDs plus saw Adrian Peterson take a "dump off" 60 yards for a TD. Some had Peterson ready for Canton after his Week 1 performance (19-103 YR / 60-yd TD catch)) but he followed up that effort with just 66 yards (3.3 per) vs the Lions last week. QB Tarvaris Jackson had FOUR interceptions vs the Lions before he was hurt and it looks as if Kelly Holcomb will get the start here. Minnesota fans seem to love the idea but one wonders if they know the 34-year-old Holcomb has appeared in 38 NFL games, going 8-13 (.381) in his 21 starts. After a playoff appearance LY, the Chiefs went 0-4 in the preseason and have opened the regular season at 0-2. LJ's holdout hurt the team, as the man who averaged 26 attempts per game in '06, has totaled just 26 carries in two games in '07 (for 98 yards). Look for MUCH more from Johnson in this one, even though the Vikings own a great rush D. Also, I expect QB Damon Huard to show some of his '06 form in which he went 5-3 as a starter, completing 60.7% with 11 TDs and only one INT (98.0 QB rating!). KC gets DE Jared Allen back from suspension this week and he's the team's best defensive player (27.5 sacks the L/3 years). The Chiefs actually out-gained the Bears in LW's loss (281-239) and I predict the team that's 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home openers, is PRIMED for a breakout game. 24* KC Chiefs.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' NFL Week Three 24* Play (1st of the '07 FB season!)
Larry's established himself as one of the most recognizable, respected and successful handicappers in the industry. The current FB season is his 24th and a 24* play not only represents his years in the business but is also the highest star rating he assigns any game. "Be there" for Larry's first 24* of the '07 NFL season!
My 24* play is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.
There are a number of phony 2-0 NFL teams but the Vikings are a phony 1-1 team! In Week 1 vs the Falcons, despite not running a SINGLE play in the red zone, Minnesota beat Atlanta, 24-3. The Vikings returned two interceptions for TDs plus saw Adrian Peterson take a "dump off" 60 yards for a TD. Some had Peterson ready for Canton after his Week 1 performance (19-103 YR / 60-yd TD catch)) but he followed up that effort with just 66 yards (3.3 per) vs the Lions last week. QB Tarvaris Jackson had FOUR interceptions vs the Lions before he was hurt and it looks as if Kelly Holcomb will get the start here. Minnesota fans seem to love the idea but one wonders if they know the 34-year-old Holcomb has appeared in 38 NFL games, going 8-13 (.381) in his 21 starts. After a playoff appearance LY, the Chiefs went 0-4 in the preseason and have opened the regular season at 0-2. LJ's holdout hurt the team, as the man who averaged 26 attempts per game in '06, has totaled just 26 carries in two games in '07 (for 98 yards). Look for MUCH more from Johnson in this one, even though the Vikings own a great rush D. Also, I expect QB Damon Huard to show some of his '06 form in which he went 5-3 as a starter, completing 60.7% with 11 TDs and only one INT (98.0 QB rating!). KC gets DE Jared Allen back from suspension this week and he's the team's best defensive player (27.5 sacks the L/3 years). The Chiefs actually out-gained the Bears in LW's loss (281-239) and I predict the team that's 19-6 ATS in its last 25 home openers, is PRIMED for a breakout game. 24* KC Chiefs.
Good Luck...Larry
Pointwise
NFL KEY RELEASES
Tennessee over New Orleans RATING: 2 23-20
Cleveland over Oakland RATING: 3 23-20
Carolina over Atlanta RATING: 4 20-10
Cincinnati over Seattle RATING: 4 31-24
Pittsburgh over San Francisco RATING: 5
Sports Reporter ---
Super Best Bet: (NFL) Pittsburgh
Best Bet: Kansas City
Best Bet: Miami
Recommended: Tampa Bay, Chicago
Trey Johnson Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 23, 2007
Not only do we have an incredible 20-5-1 ATS for 80% mark this football season our Top Rated 5* selections are an awesome 3-1 ATS for 75 percent! Join us today as we increase those winning numbers with our 5* NFL Dog of the Year. With the support of a 90 percent winning trend you don’t want to pass on this easy money.
#415 Jacksonville (+) over Denver at 4:05 PM EST
After a tough opener the Jaguars settled down and took care of business last week against Atlanta. As a first year starter Garrard is proving to be the right choice for the Jags. Last week he was 17-25 for 272 yards and a touchdown. Defensively the Jags had seven sacks last week and held the Falcons to 82 yards rushing.
Denver is 2-0 but just barely winning both of their games on the last play of regulation. Second year QB Cutler has looked solid although he is a bit erratic having thrown three interceptions this season. Defensively six new starters is just one reason the Broncos are allowing 156 rushing yards per game.
Jacksonville is the better of the two teams in this matchup. After barely escaping against both Buffalo and Oakland the Broncos are about to learn they can’t get that lucky against a good team. Denver is 1-9 ATS in their last ten. That is about to drop to 1-10 after the Jags dominate today.
Play Jacksonville (+)