TOTALS 4 U
Detroit @ Philadelphia on Sunday, September 23rd
Detroit (2-0) opening the season with a 36-21 win at the Raiders and a 20-17 overtime victory over the Vikings to remain perfect heading into Week 3 isn’t a huge surprise, considering the caliber of offense talent this squad has amassed, but if they are to make a run at a playoff spot this season, the Lions’ defense - strong so far - must continue to improve to handle the better competition to come. As the former Defensive Coordinator at Tampa Bay, Head Coach Rod Marinelli brings a strong defensive background and is joined by Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry who is known in NFL circles for his unmatched preparation and energy. Defensive captain 6’4” 295 DT Cory Redding (7 T) seems reenergized in Barry’s system that stresses proper positioning and discipline to assignments over freelancing. So far Redding’s teammates are playing with greater trust for each other than this franchise has seen years with 6’2” 235 MLB Paris Lennon (22 T), 6’0” 225 WLB Ernie Sims (17 T), 5’11” 184 LCB Fernando Bryant (15 T), and free agency pick up 6’2” 273 LDE DeWayne White (10 T, S, INT) off to great starts. Remarkably the Lions have piled up 5 sacks, 6 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles while holding opponents to a respectable 107.5 rushing and 236.5 yards per game. Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz certainly has been given all the tools to recreate his “Greatest Show on Turf” and is off to an electrifying start, racking up an NFL-best 321.5 yards per game through the air so far. 11-year QB John Kitna (49 of 69 for 534, 4 TD, 3 INT) again showed his toughness last week, returning to lead his team to an overtime win after missing 2 quarters to a suspected concussion. Kitna has never been one to take the safe route and is a perfect fit for a unit that will challenge defenses downfield all season. 42 of Detroit’s 62 pass completions have been to the wide receivers Shaun McDonald (13 for 161 and TD), Roy Williams (11 for 131 and 2 TD), Mike Furrey (10 for 112), and rookie Calvin Johnson (8 for 131 and 2 TD) for an average of 12.8 yards per grab. At some point the Lions are going to have to run the ball if they are to beat quality teams but haven’t show the inclination yet to do so. Running backs have carried the rock just 32 times through two games with 5’11” 214 RB Tatum Bell (24 for 101 yards and TD) what passes for a workhorse in the Motor City.
Philadelphia (0-2) has struggled offensively in a pair of heartbreakers to open the season, dropping a 13-16 game to the Packers and a 12-20 loss to the Redskins Monday night. 9th-year QB Donovan McNabb (43 of 79 for 424, TD, INT) is coming off a serious knee injury he suffered just 10 months ago and appears a little rusty and could use help in the forms of play selection and receiver toughness to get back on track. Both the Packers and the Redskins pushed around starters 5’11” 186 WR Kevin Curtis (6 for 81) and 6’1” 197 WR Reggie Brown (3 for 21) at the line of scrimmage, disrupting the timing of Philadelphia’s passing game, while the more physical backup WR 6’0” 212 Jason Avant (8 for 109 and TD) has been McNabb’s most productive target. The Eagles’ offense would also benefit from a better run/pass ratio to soften up defenses that have teed off for 4 sacks so far. Philadelphia’s O-Line is big and aggressive at 6’5 ½” and 330 pound per man and have been strong when given the opportunity to open holes for dual-threat RB Brain Westbrook (37 for 181 rushing, 12 for 112 receiving) but a play-calling ratio of 89 called passing plays to just 49 called rushing plays has left this formidable crew on the defensive in pass protection. Last season when Philadelphia found itself out of balance offensively and struggling, Head Coach Andy Reid handed over the play-calling duties to Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhiweg and the results were immediate in both run/pass balance and on the scoreboard. Defensively, the Eagles have been rock solid allowing 176 yards and a TD on the ground along with 376 yards and a TD versus a pair of picks through the air in their first two contests. Philadelphia’s defensive line is as deep as they come with players the caliber of Juqua Thomas, Kimo von Oelhoffen, Montae Reagor, and Darren Howard not even cracking the starting lineup of their 8-man rotation. 6’1” 235 MLB Omar Gaither (13 T) gets help against the rushing game this season with the addition of 6’2” 263 SLB Chris Gocong (4 T) and 6’2” 242 WLB Takeo Spikes (14 T) adding a physical presence this unit lacked in 2006 while the Eagle defensive backfield will again likely be the best in the league. Overall, Philadelphia’s problems (other than a local media that thinks the NFL’s active leading quarterback in winning percentage should be benched!) can certainly be fixed but numerous injuries may hold up the improvement. TE L.J. Smith (4 for 26) is struggling with a lingering groin strain, CB Brian Dawkins suffered a neck stinger last week, Pro Bowl CB Lito Sheppard is out with an MCL strain, LT William Thomas left the last game with severe back spasms, and RB Brain Westbrook undergoes an MRI on Wednesday to take another look at the knee sprain he sustained in the Redskins game.
OK, so the Lions have a defense, the Eagles have no offense, and entering Week 3 these teams have combined for 2 wins - each belonging to the Lions. If we were wagering in the Bizzaro World that these crews have competed in so far, we would have to take the under. In the Real World, Andy Reid/Marty Mornhiweg and Mike Martz will be calling the plays on Sunday.
Take Philadelphia/Detroit over 44 ½
Great Lakes Sports
NFL Selection:
Carolina at Atlanta 4:15PM EST Play on: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers are 3-1ATS the last three years vs the Falcons, 5-2ATS on artificial turf the last three years, and 4-2ATS in domes the last three years while the Falcons are 10-15ATS vs conference opponents the last three years. We look for the Carolina Panthers to grab the road ATS win & cover today.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 23rd, 4:00 P.M. EDT
Last meeting ended in a 20-7 Denver win in 2005. Jags are averaging 11.5 pts/game and allowing 10. Denver is averaging 19 and 17. Supporting angles Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) -marginal winning team from last season who won between 51% and 60% of their games (213-142 since 1983, 60%) and Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) - off a home win, team that had a winning record last season (121-74 since 1983, 62.1%).
Play on: Under
Stephen Nover
402 KAN -2.5 (-120) vs 401 MIN
Analysis:
Pick: Chiefs -2.5 hosting Vikings
Analysis: It seems hard to believe nowadays, but the Kansas City Chiefs actually were a playoff team last season.
Now they are a desperate 0-2 hosting the offensively-challenged Minnesota Vikings.
Sounds like a good spot for Kansas City. It's the Chiefs' first home game of the year. They've covered 19 of their past 26 home openers.
The Vikings are a dome team going to an outdoor, grass stadium at perhaps the toughest road venue, Arrowhead Stadium. Not only is the spot bad for Minnesota, but so is the situational aspect. Aside from the Chiefs desperately needing a victory, the Vikings are in a division sandwich off an overtime road loss to the Lions and with a home game looming next week against the Packers.
The Chiefs defense has forced six turnovers. They get back their best pass rusher with Jared Allen returning from suspension and face a rusty career backup quarterback in Kelly Holcomb. He lasted played in a regular-season game in 2005.
The Vikings' run defense still is strong, but it's not dominant like last year ranking sixth. Larry Johnson, behind an offensive line that should be fired-up, is ready to produce numbers in Week 3 after a prolonged holdout.
The Vikings have limited firepower and much of that firepower is ailing. Chester Taylor may miss a second straight week, while wide receiver Troy Williamson and fullback Tony Richardson also are less than 100 percent.
JB Sports
NYJ -3.0 (-115) vs 407 MIA
Analysis:
Going back to last year, Dolphins have lost 7 of their last 9 away from home & have also lost 5 of last 6 in this series. Although both teams come in 0-2 & desperate for wins, I trust the Jets here at home in this situation against a struggling Dolphin offense that has already turned it over 6 times in the first 2 weeks.
Paul Leiner
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Sport: NFL
Game: New York/Miami
Prediction: 5* Over 35.5 NYJ/Mia
Tony George
Indianapolis Colts v/s Houston Texans 9/23/2007 1:00:00 pm
Houston +6
I am calling for the "Live Dog" in this one on Sunday. Houston has dominated in both games they have played this season. A beat down of the Panthers last week on the road, and they pounded KC into the ground in their opener. They were able to overcome WR Steve Smith of the Panthers last week and win big on the road at Carolina, many people's choice to get to the NFC championship this year. The first 2-0 start in franchise history for the Texans, they are fired up for this one in Houston. Indy is off a VERY tough game they could have easily lost last week at Tennessee, and back to back roadies are always tough no matter who you are. Houston allows 12 ppg and 69 yards rushing as a defense to date, very impressive numbers for a young and talented defense, maybe the best young defense in the NFL in terms of youth that is performing.
The big key is WR Andre Johnson being out for Houston and that they have no chance given to them by many writers and media types. I say higwash, they have enough talent to fill in. Indy has injury issues of their own. 2 OL are out, LB Morris is out this week, and TE Clark is doubtful. I'd say that is as much or more of an issue that Johnson being out with a MCL sprain.
Houston's ability to stop the run and RB Addia will enhance their chances of some man to man coverage and doubles on Harrison, which will make the sledding tough for Indy. I also like Houston's offense ran by ex- Atlanta back-up QB Matt Schaub right now (the Falcons would pay millions to have him back right now!) , and RB Ahman Green, while alittle banged up is playing against a run defense giving up 4.1 yards per carry. Houston has managed a nice 27 ppg average, saw a tough defense last week on the road and moved the chains at will, and Gary Kubiak has got this team on the same page and playing well.
I am calling for an outright win here, but a cover should be in order here in what many think is a push over game for the Colts. I can assure you, if overlooked by anyone, Houston can do some damage.
Play the Underdog in this one on Sunday
JIM FEIST
Peyton Manning against Tom Brady? How about Damon Huard versus Tavaris Jackson in this one! Two very bad offenses matchup here. Minnesota (1-1 SU/1-0-1 ATS) isn't fancy, with young QB play, a talented young runner in Adrian Peterson, and a defense that is awesome against the run but suspect in the secondary. Rookie RB Adrian Peterson (5.4 ypc) had a dazzling debut, rushing for 103 yards and scoring on a 60-yard swing pass, and the defense supplied two touchdowns on interception returns by Kevin Williams and Antoine Winfield in a 24-3 rout of Atlanta. Kansas City (0-2 SU/1-1 ATS) is a mess on offense, off a 20-3 loss at Houston and a loss at Chicago, 20-10. Herm Edwards has no imagination on offense, and it hasn't helped that their two best offensive linemen (Willie Roaf, Will Shields) are gone the last two years, and Edwards shipped out WR Dante Hall and QB Trent Green. The offense had 219 total yards in the opener, 3 points and 4 turnovers in the opener and QB Damon Huard was 22-33 for 168 yards, no TDs, 2 picks, 3 sacks. RB Larry Johnson had 43 yards on 10 carries! On Sunday, Johnson had 55 yards, 3.4 ypc, in the loss at Chicago. After averaging just eight points in four preseason losses, Kansas City's offense got 3 points in the opener. Only one play went longer than 20 yards! This is the home opener for Kansas City, but how long before the fans start booing?
Greg Daraban
409 San Francisco (2-0) at 410 Pittsburgh (2-0)
NFC vs AFC as two of the Leagues most historic franchises go head to head. The 49ers have beaten AZ and St.Louis. Pitsburgh has mauled Cleveland and Buffalo. Love the way HC Nolan has drilled a winning attitude into the Niner players. The Steelers probably win this game but by just a Field Goal.
Scott Spreitzer's NFL Knockout Beatdown! *42-19, 69% ATS Run!
Denver has been quite possibly, the most fortunate team through the first two weeks of action. They followed a last-second win over Buffalo, with an OT victory over the hapless Raiders. The worst news for Denver is that they can't stop the run. The Broncos are allowing 156 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per pop and will now face a Jaguar offense that sports one of the best RB duos in the league. This is the week that the mammoth Jaguar offensive line puts it together for Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Once the two RBs get it going, it should be lights-out! The Jaguar play-action offense is obviously predicated by a strong ground attack. Against this defense, I believe the Jaguars will finally bust out. Defensively, the aggressive Jaguar defense should be able to keep Denver's offense in check. Jay Cutler is an up-and-comer, but he doesn't yet possess the ability to make defenses pay downfield on a consistent basis. That will be Denver's offensive undoing in this one. The Broncos may be undefeated, but the Jags are the better team. We'll grab the points with Jacksonville on Sunday. Thanks! GL! Scott
Wolkosky Milan
121-72-2 last thirty six days!!! (62.7%)
5-1 Yesterday!
Today:
10* CHIEFS -3
10* DOLPHINS +3
10* COWBOYS +3½
10* FALCONS +4
10* STL/TB OVER 38
10* CAR/ATL OVER 37
10* IND/HOU UNDER 47½
Free: PACKERS +5½
Confidential Kick-Off!! The Gold Sheet!!
America's Handicapping Leaders For 50 Seasons!
11* KANSAS CITY (over Minnesota)
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 20 - Minnesota 6
(Sunday, September 23)
Chiefs finally get to play a game at friendly Arrowhead, where they are 12-4
last 16 vs. spread. And there are other pluses as well, with DE Jared Allen
(7.5 sacks LY) returning from two-game suspension, and Larry Johnson now
having two games to get the kinks out following his training-camp salary
holdout. QB Damon Huard played a heady game last week vs. Chicago's tough
defense, with one TDP and another perfect strike nullified by a motion
penalty. Re-acquisition of quick OLB Donnie Edwards gives Chiefs another
blitzer to pair with forceful young veteran Derrick Johnson. K.C. OL
protection held up pretty well vs. Chicago pressure. Meanwhile, Minny QBs
had 5 turnovers at Detroit
Trey Johnson 5* NFL Dog of the Year
Not only do we have an incredible 20-5-1 ATS for 80% mark this football season our Top Rated 5* selections are an awesome 3-1 ATS for 75 percent! Join us today as we increase those winning numbers with our 5* NFL Dog of the Year. With the support of a 90 percent winning trend you don’t want to pass on this easy money.
#415 Jacksonville (+) over Denver at 4:05 PM EST
After a tough opener the Jaguars settled down and took care of business last week against Atlanta. As a first year starter Garrard is proving to be the right choice for the Jags. Last week he was 17-25 for 272 yards and a touchdown. Defensively the Jags had seven sacks last week and held the Falcons to 82 yards rushing.
Denver is 2-0 but just barely winning both of their games on the last play of regulation. Second year QB Cutler has looked solid although he is a bit erratic having thrown three interceptions this season. Defensively six new starters is just one reason the Broncos are allowing 156 rushing yards per game.
Jacksonville is the better of the two teams in this matchup. After barely escaping against both Buffalo and Oakland the Broncos are about to learn they can’t get that lucky against a good team. Denver is 1-9 ATS in their last ten. That is about to drop to 1-10 after the Jags dominate today.
Play Jacksonville (+)
WILD BILL
Week 3, NFL Sept 20-23
Green Bay +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 43 1/2 Chargers-Packers (2 units)
Kansas City -2 1/2 (1 unit)
Buffalo +16 1/2 (1 unit)
Arizona +8 (1 unit)
St Louis +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Browns +3 (1 unit)
Carolina -4 ( 1 unit)
Dallas +3 1/2 (2 units)
Eagles -6 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 44 1/2 Detroit-Eagles (1 unit)
Saints -4 1/2 (1 unit)
KING CREOLE's late-phone service are "On the HOUSE"!
Last week was a "Sunday of HELL" for King Creole and his NFL Totals-Train. Despite a LOT of hours of hard work and handicapping, our Over / Under plays did not do well. And we got no help from the "Goddess of Wagering" as Lady Luck turned her back on us. As a result, today's LATE-PHONE service plays from the King are 'On the HOUSE':
3 Play on: UNDER the TOTAL / Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots / 1:05et
We’ve used the Bills/Patriots ‘Under” as a play numerous times.... and been rewarded with consistent winners. In fact, this AFC East series has actually gone 2-14 O/U in the last 16 meetings... and a PERFECT 0-8 when playing IN New England. Now, on to the OU Systems: The Patriots have started the year with a couple of BIG wins.... both by the exact same scores: 38-14 (How rare is that?). As a result, we note that In the first 5 games of the season, teams off BB SU wins of 21 or more pts (PATS) have gone an almost-perfect 1-10-2 O/U since the 2001 season. Meanwhile, the Bills are 0-2 out of the gate and qualify in this one: Game 3 road dogs off BB SU losses, with the last by double digits... have gone 4-17 O/U n the last 10 years... and 1-9-1 O/U since 2001. When I reviewed last year’s TOTALS TIPSHEET #3, it contained a nice Division System as well. It still applies. Game 3 road teams playing with REVENGE against a division opponents have gone 3-12 O/U since 2002... and 1-8 O/U as dogs of 3 > pts (BILLS). As far as applicable team OU trends go, BUFFALO is 2-8 O/U away off BB SU losses... 2-6 O/U after playing the Steelers... 2-6 O/U away in Game Three... 2-6 O/U before a division home game... and 1-8 O/U when playing with Revenge on the division road. NEW ENGLAND is 4-13 O/U as home favs of -8 > pts (including a PERFECT 0-10 O/U vs fellow AFC East foes)... 1-6 O/U before a Monday game... and 1-6 O/U vs a winless opp (Gm 3 >).
3 UNDER the TOTAL / Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans / 1:05et
Houston will be without their best offensive player in WR Andre Johnson... but that's NOT a bad thing for us "under' players. If HC Gary Kubiak is as smart as I think he is, he'll turn that offensive disadvantage into an ADVANTAGE. Knowing how poor the Colt rush defense is, Kubiak would be smart to POUND the ball on the ground with the tandem of Ahman Green and Ron Dayne. We're talking 35-40 rushing attempts here. It's a 'win-win" situation. By accentuating the ground game, you (A) Take advantage of an opponent's major weakness on defense... and the Colts allowed over 100+ rushing yards vs the Saints in game one... and 140+ rushing yards last week to the Titans. And (B). you keep a quick-strike high-octane offense like Indy's off the field. Don't forget that the COLTS are already 0-2 O/U this year as the line makers have been setting their OU lines too high.... knowing that the general betting public will continue to play their weekly Colt "over" (like lambs to the slaughter!). Here's your Systems: Game 3 AFC South DIVISION games have gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U since 2002. Game 3 road teams who went "Under" in their first 2 games (COLTS) have gone 5-16 O/U in the last 10 years. And finally: Week Three games with an OU line if 46 > pts have gone 1-8 O/U when the home team is an UNDERDOG... and a PERFECT 0-5 O/U when the OU line is 47 > pts (TEXANS).
Additional OU opinions:
Lions/Eagles UNDER
Jets/Dolphins UNDER
Chargers/Packers UNDER
Panthers/Falcons OVER