Bob Balfe
Atlanta +4 over Carolina
Today we will get our first look at how good the Falcons defense can be at home. If your a Panthers fan how frustrating is it after you are up 14-0 to the Texans only to get crushed at home. Carolina should not be giving 4 points to any team in this league right now. I am not putting this play out on the Falcons offense as much as I am for the defense. Joey Harrington should have his first decent game this afternoon leading the Falcons to a win
Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons Sep 23 2007 4:15PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Play on Car/Atl Over at 4:15 ET. I realize that the Falcons have been putrid on offense so far but that gives us a much more favorable number to go over in this spot. Harrington has been sacked 13 times in two games, partly due to poor play by the OL but also to his indecision. New head coach Bobby Petrino has been highly critical of him and with the signing of Byron Leftwich this week, Harrington will have to "#*it or get off the pot!" I expect the Falcons (and especially Harrington) to "give it their best shot" in this, the team's home opener. Not that preseason games count but in Atlanta's first preseason home game (Week 3 versus the Bengals on a Monday night), Harrington threw two first-half TDs and the team looked "energized!" As for the Panthers, Delhomme has been excellent in two games, completing 66.2% with six TDs and only one INT (112.2 QB rating). WR Steven Smith has been 'lethal' (15 catches / 18.1 ypc / 4 TDs) and Atlanta's pass rush is no longer a major force and its 2ndy is no better than average. The Carolina running game leaves a lot to be desired, so I see Delhomme "forcing the issue." As for Carolina's D, it's no better than average these days, with one sack and just one interception to its credit after two games. With the Saints off to an 0-2 start, the Panthers know this division is theirs for the taking, so expect a"big effort." As for the Falcons, if they can't get up for this game, when will they? My 25* Total is on Car/Atl Over.
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Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio
Game: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Sep 23 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: Houston Texans
Reason: Play on the Texans at 1:00 ET. The Texans are a new team. They are off to a 2-0 start for the 1st time in the franchise's six-year history. Reliant Stadium will be rocking when they host the Colts. While Houston is just 1-9 SU all-time versus the Colts, it is 5-5 ATS. That lone win came LY at this venue when the Texans won 27-24 as nine-point dogs. This time around, the Texans are getting not quite a TD but this is a MUCH better team. Gone is David Carr and at QB is Matt Schaub. He's completed 72.0% TY (three TDs and 1 INT) with a QB rating of 111.4! Ahman Green has 144 YR (4.6 ypc), proving there's plenty left in his tank. DE Mario Williams seems determined to prove he was the right choice at No. 1 overall (over Reggie Bush) and the rush D has allowed 69.0 ypg (ranks 3rd!). The Colts are the Colts but Indy is just 3-6-1 ATS as a division road favorite its last 10 games. With LB Morris likely out, LB Keiaho less than 100% and LB Cato June gone to FA, the Colts may have some problems. While the Colts have been OK defensively so far, the loss of DBs David and Harper, isn't a good long-term prognosis. The Texans ran for 191 yards versus the Colts LY in Houston (Dayne had 153 and two TDs) and this year have Schaub at QB, not Carr. Is it possible it will be the Texans, not the Colts, who emerge from this game 3-0? YES! Houston is my 25* AFC South GOY.
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Guaranteed Pick: Brian Hansen
Game: Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Sep 23 2007 1:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: This is the 4th game of a 4 game set, and although the previous 3 games went UNDER the number, I expect today’s game to sail OVER the posted number! Chris Capuano gets the call for the Brewers; Capuano has lost a team-record 12 straight decisions since winning on May 7 against Washington. The skid spans 16 starts and 4 relief outings, and the Brewers have lost in each of them. Jo-Jo Reyes toes the rubber for the home team; the rookie right-hander won his last outing, but is a very poor 1-2 with a 6.98 ERA overall. There is a very significant trend that points to the OVER as being the sharp wager today; the Brewers see the total go OVER the number an incredible 34 out of the last 50 times they’ve played against a left-handed starting pitcher! Behind these 2 brutal pitchers, and when considering these other stats and trends, the sharp money is on the OVER!
Big Al's Full Service Clients
3* Brewers - Twins
Nfc East Goy - Giants
Sunday Night Gom - Bears
ATS Lock Club
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7 units on the Denver Broncos (-3 1/2) over the Jacksonville Jags, 4:00
6 units on the Indianapolis Colts (-6 1/2) over the Houston Texans, 1:00
5 units on the Detroit Lions (+5 1/2) over the Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00
4 units on the Dallas Cowboys (+3 1/2) over the Chicago Bears, 8:00
Kelso
NFL Game Of The Year
100 Units
DENVER BRONCOS (-3 ½) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Denver by 13-14
Starting Time: 4:05
Weather: Partly cloudy, temperature of 77, relative humidity of 17%, winds out of the W-SW at 12 miles per hour and a 20% chance of rain.
Northcoast
3- Pitt-9-
3 Caro-4
3 Jets-3-120
Russ Culver -2.5 units ytd for nfl FB
401) Vikings +3
404) Eagles -4 1/2
407) Dolphins +3
411) Cardinals +7
413) Rams +3 1/2
415) Jaguars +3 1/2
423) Giants +3 1/2
424) NY-Washington UNDER 41 1/2
Rich Totals
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10-6 last week
16-16 overall
NYJ OV 35'
GB UN 43'
WAS OV 40'
NE UN 41
PHI UN 44'
ATL UN 36'
SF UN 38
DAL UN 41
CLE UN 40
TEN OV 45'
JAX UN 35'
CIN UN 50'
IND UN 48'
TB OV 38'
KC OV 33'
ARI UN 35
Wildcat (nyPost)
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SUNDAY
PACKERS (+5) over Chargers: Marty Schottenheimer went 14-2 in the regular season with Bolts last year. Norv Turner has much to prove in this hot seat, and jury’s out, off Charger attack’s early performances. Turner needs to go out 13-1 to reprise that 14-2 with much the same personnel ... but as a Norv skeptic from way back, Cat will pay to see it. Pack’s defense has improved enough to make this viable, and nicked-up Chargers offensive line will have work cut out. Pack (+5) not quite back, but will hang, for one unit.
LAST WEEK: 2-1 (plus one unit): L’ville came into Lexington smug, for a team that can’t play defense worth a lick (Kentucky, plus one unit); Billy B roused Patriot troops (Chargers, minus one unit) and poured it on, while doing so (Patriots over, plus one unit).
SEASON: 4-2 (plus two units).
Russ Culver -2.5 units ytd for nfl FB
401) Vikings +3
404) Eagles -4 1/2
407) Dolphins +3
411) Cardinals +7
413) Rams +3 1/2
415) Jaguars +3 1/2
423) Giants +3 1/2
424) NY-Washington UNDER 41 1/2
LT Profits
Bears (pod)
2* Browns
2* Vikings under
Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, September 23, 2007
$35.00 Guaranteed: Matt Fargo is 7-4 ATS (63.6 percent) the first two weeks of the NFL and he is now 18-9 ATS in his last 27 NFL games going back to last year! The biggest play of the young season thus far goes on Sunday with his High-Roller Game of the Month that is backed by a 45-8 ATS (84.9%) Power Situation! Do not miss it! Guaranteed! 9/21/2007
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers -9 -105
High-Roller Game of the MonthThe Steelers have outscored their foes by a 60-10 margin, while the 49ers two wins have come by a combined 4 points. That might normally call for a play on the underdog based on a bounce back spot but the Steelers are out to prove some things after last season’s start to the year so there will be no letdown especially with a game at Seattle on deck. San Francisco meanwhile is caught in a divisional sandwich, coming off that game against the Rams with a big home game against Seattle next week.
San Francisco has been outgained in both of its wins including last week against the Rams where St. Louis amassed 206 more yards than the 49ers put up. San Francisco won the game with only eight first downs. On the other side, Pittsburgh has outgained Buffalo and Cleveland by a combined 341 yards and the Steelers are averaging 197.5 ypg on the ground. That is skewed somewhat due to running the ball with a big lead but what isn’t skewed it their 5.2 ypc average.
San Francisco’s defense took a huge hit this week and it did not come at a good time. The 49ers lost one of their top defensive starters for the season when outside linebacker Manny Lawson's anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee was torn in practice. Lawson will be impossible to replace because he is a unique and versatile player. He is one of the fastest players on the 49ers' defense and had been playing with far more confidence and aggression than he did last year.
Frank Gore had 81 yards on 20 carries against St. Louis but 43 of those came on one clip so he averaged only two ypg on his other 19 touches. Gore had only 55 yards against the Cardinals in the opening weekend. Over the past four years, the Steelers have allowed a running back to rush for 100 yards only six times which is the best mark in the league. Pittsburgh has not allowed a running back to surpass the century mark since Edgerrin James did it 27 games ago in Indianapolis.
The Steelers lost the last meeting between these two teams back in 2003 and while that has nothing to do with this game, what Pittsburgh has done after that sure does. Since that defeat, Pittsburgh has gone an amazing 12-1 straight up and 9-3-1 ATS against the NFC, including 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS at home. Pittsburgh is 12-2 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in two straight games since 1992 while the 49ers are 13-40 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
San Francisco falls into a very solid go against situation, one that is a personal favorite and one that wins at an amazing clip. With the travel aspect of the 49ers, it brings in a solid situation favoring the Steelers. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 8-45 ATS (15.1 percent) since 2000. That includes a 1-8 ATS mark last season and a 0-1 ATS mark this year with the Broncos not covering in Buffalo in Week One. Play Pittsburgh Steelers 3 Units
Spylock
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NFL
DateTime Game Pick Stars
Arizona Cardinals +8 1*
Pittsburgh Steelers -9 1*
Tennessee Titans +4 3*
Charlie Sports
Green Bay+5' ( 500*)
San Francsco+9' (30*)
Buffalo+16 (20*)
Atlanta+4 (20*)
Oakland-3 (10*)
Miami+3 (10*) free play
Asa
5* Chargers