Pointwise Phones
4* Carolina
3* Pitt, Minn, Tampa, Tenn,
2* New Orleans, Buff, Green Bay
LARRY NESS ' LEGEND Play-NFL
My LEGEND Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. The 6-6 Cards are tied with the Lions and Vikings for the final wild card spot in the NFC. That's heady territory considering the team has made the postseason just ONCE (in 1998) since moving to the desert in 1988. Meanwhile, with a win here, the Seahawks (who have won four straight games), can clinch their FOURTH straight NFC West title. Seattle is playing well, as Hasselbeck has thrown two TD passes in SIX of his last seven games, while averaging 275 YPG through the air. In the four-game winning streak, he's completed 62.2% with a 7-3 ratio. RB Morris averaged 84.3 YPG on the ground in the three games Alexander missed and added 5-for-64 LW, as Alexander returned (Shaun had 20-65). Arizona escaped LW with just a 27-21 win (almost lost it!), despite forcing four Cleveland TOs and enters this game with a 'ton' of key injuries. QB Warner is always a "hit away" from the sidelines, while his starting WRs are questionable. Boldin (likely to miss with a toe problem) and Fitzgerald (will be a game-time decision with a groin injury The Seattle pass D is 2nd in sacks with 36 (Warner better be careful), plus has allowed a league-low seven TDs (15 INTs). The Arizona D is without its best player in safety Adrian Wilson, starting CB Green and its best pass rusher (Berry). Seattle fell behind Arizona (Week 2) on the road 17-0 but took a 20-17 lead before losing 23-20. The Seahawks have been an excellent home team while making the playoffs these past four seasons and have won three straight at home coming in, outscoring opponents, 87-29. Seattle "smells blood" here. LEGEND on the Sea Seahawks.
Good Luck...
LARRY NESS' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 14
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. Head coach Norv Turner was on the "hot seat" at SD after a 1-3 start but is now expected to be offered a multi-year deal with the Chargers at 7-5. I'm NOT sold on the 7-5 Chargers "being back" just yet, as the team's lone quality win came against the Colts (23-21), a game in which SD had two kick return TDs, Peyton threw six INTs plus Indy's Vinatieri missed a 29-yard game-winning FG at the end! The team's other six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 28-44 (.389) entering Week 14! Rivers has thrown for less than 200 yards in FIVE of his last seven games and is nowhere near LY's form. Tomlinson's averaging 26 YPG less, has just 12 TDs through 12 games (had 29 LY) and his YPC is down from 5.2 to 4.4! Overall, the offense is averaging just 23.8 PPG, after averaging a league-best 30.8 LY! For the Titans, Vince Young is really coming on at QB, averaging 264 YPG through the air the last four games, after averaging a pathetic 122.1 through his first seven starts. He's also added 176 rushing yards (6.8 per) the last four weeks. The Titans broke a three-game losing streak LW, as DT Albert Haynesworth returned. In his absence, the team allowed 97 points (32.3 per) and 160 YPG rushing, going 0-3. With him, the Titans are 7-2 in '07, allowing 16.0 PPG and 71.9 YPG rushing (which would rank them 2nd in the NFL!). SD is just 2-4 SU on the road, losing at NE, GB, Min and Jax. The defense has allowed 32 PPG in those losses and like the offense, has not played anywhere near its '06 form. SD has some "wiggle room" in the weak AFC West, a luxury the 7-5 Titans don't have in the AFC South, where the Colts are 10-2 and the Jags are 8-4. On the sidelines, Fisher vs Turner is a complete mismatch. SD is also not helped by traveling again for the second straight week, while the Titans play their second straight at home. Las Vegas Insider on the Ten Titans.
Spritzer's 2007 **NFL Game of the Year!
My GOY is a play on the Colts, minus points over Baltimore. The Ravens' players themselves, basically billed last week's game against New England as their Super Bowl. The meltdown at the end of the game, following a chain of numerous bad breaks was all I needed to see to lift the level of this game to the highest it could be. I was set to wager on the Colts, whether the Ravens won or lost that game. But the manner that they lost in should have this team's already fractured psyche in the dumper. It's pretty safe to say that the current roster couldn't be any more frustrated with their coaching staff than they already are. No one seems to see eye-to-eye with Billick any longer. The defense is not aging well and the secondary is a shell of what it was last season. The defense as a whole, is no longer intimidating. Peyton Manning, with TE Dallas Clark bringing back another dimension to this offense, will drill this once-proud stop-unit. Clark grabbed seven Manning passes last week and really opened things up for Reggie Wayne who finished with 158 receiving yards. Defensively, the Colts rank in the top-5 in points allowed, passing yardage allowed, and total yards allowed (277 per game). The Ravens got a huge game out of McGahee last week, yet still couldn't get over the top. They're 23rd in the league in total offense, and still don't have a true starting QB on the roster. Baltimore is averaging just 16 PPG during their current 6-game losing skid, and have been held to 14 points or less in four of those games. Off a physically and emotionally draining Monday night loss...and a draining season for that matter, I believe Baltimore will be as flat as they've been in seasons. I believe the Colts will cruise throughout on Sunday night with an easy win and cover. Colts 31 Ravens 9. The Colts are my NFL Game of the Year.
ASHN Comp
NFL Angle for Sunday December 9th
PLAY OVER when a double digit home favorite is off consecutive SU wins but ATS losses of 10 or more points if they are playing a greater than .500 team. This angle is 11-1 OVER since 1989.
PLAY OVER Pittsburgh/New England
GAFFNEY ( 43-19-1 ) :
CAROLINA
NY GIANTS
MINNESOTA
KANSAS CITY
Tout House
NFL Carolina vs. Jacksonville
Take Jacksonville Jaguars
1* on Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 Jacksonville will get back to their dominant winning ways this weekend as they take on the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are suffering from QB issues with the loss of Jake Delhomme early this season. Vinny Testaverde can't muster up enough offense to compete with the Jags on Sunday. The Panthers aren't running the ball effectively which also hampers their passing game. They have dropped 5 out of their last 6 games overall and are just 1-5 ATS during that span. The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Jags are scoring over 28 points a game in their last 3 games which will be more than enough to cover this spread against Carolina Sunday. David Garrard is playing great football at QB passing for over 241 yards a game in his last 3 games as the Jags' starter. Jacksonville's balance on offense makes them a very formidable opponent to stop. Carolina is 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games played on a grass field. The Jags' running game is at it's best on grass fields so look for Jacksonville to run wild on the Panthers' defense Sunday. Take Jacksonville and lay the points.
NFL Minnesota vs. San Francisco
Take Under
1 Unit on Vikings/49ers UNDER 39 The 49ers are scoring only 10 points a game at home but they are giving up just 18.6 points a game, keeping the opposing offenses in check. Minnesota is scoring just 19 points a game on the road this season and that is even with their 41 point outburst against the Giants a few weeks back. This will be a low scoring affair with two teams who focus on running the ball. Each team has great rush defenses that will contain opposing backs, even Adrian Peterson. Minnesota is 7-0 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in the 49ers last 6 games as a home underdog. Cash in with the UNDER 39 points.
NFL Miami vs. Buffalo
Take Miami Dolphins
3* on Miami Dolphins +7 This may be the Dolphins' best shot at ending their dreadful losing streak. Miami won't cash in their season due to not wanting the embarrassment of being an 0-16 team this year. Buffalo is a very beatable team that the Dolphins had on the ropes earlier this year. They held a 10-2 lead in the 4th quarter only to piss it away late. Miami can beat the Bills and we fully expect them to do so Sunday. The Bills are only scoring 15.3 points a game. Oddsmakers cannot justify this spread with those putrid offensive numbers. This game will be decided by a field goal as it comes down to the wire. The Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Dolphins are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Bet Miami on the road.
Malinsky
12/9/2007 NFL Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 PM ET Carolina Panthers 10.5
12/10/2007 NFL New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons 8:30 PM ET under 43.5
MARC LAWRENCE NFL PHONE picks
4* UNDER DOG GOY Pittsburgh +10.5
3* carolina +10.5
3* jets +3.5
VICTOR KING'S NFL O/U TOTALS from TIPSHEET
3* Chargers @ Titans Go Over The Total
2* Cardinals @ Seahawks Go Over The Total
2* Ny Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Go Over The Total
2* Minnesota @ San Francisco Go Under The Total
Ethan Law
1* Texans
Pointwise Phones
4* Carolina
3* Pitt. Minn. Tampa Bay Tenn
2* New Orleans Buffalo Green Bay
jwhip
128 DEN -6.5
Analysis:
Broncos -6.5 (2 Unit)
The Chiefs have been horrible on offense as they own the 3rd-worst offense in the league in total yards and points. They are averaging just 14 points per game, and havent even scored a point in the fourth quarter in four straight games.
QB Brodie Croyle has looked ok in his last three games, but has failed to put up the points and yards. In those three games he is averaging around 150 passing yards, with ONLY 1 touchdown pass.
The Broncos offense simply has the power to out score the Chiefs. They are averaging 29 points per game over their last four, and Jay Cutler has been a different quarterback at home. He is averaging 240 passing yards per game and has a stellar QB rating of 98 on the season.
The Broncos gave the Raiders 24 points last week on turnovers, and also gave the Bears a win with kicking to Hester. The players "know they have to play better" to get into the playoffs. Before those games take a look at them against the Titans and Chiefs: dominating performances and according to team insiders "they will return to that form" now back at home.
The Broncos shut down this Chiefs team a few weeks ago, and Selvin Young rushed for 109 yards on the day. Young is expected to be highly involved in offense and with the temperature in the low 20's look for the Broncos to dominate this lonely KC team again
North Star Sports Service
Best Bet!
NFL - 12/9/2007
GREEN BAY -10
NFL - 12/9/2007 DALLAS atDETROIT Under 53
NFL - 12/9/2007 NY GIANTS 3
NFL - 12/9/2007 PITTSBURGH atNEW ENGLAND Over 52
NFL - 12/9/2007 TENNESSEE 0
NFL - 12/9/2007 ARIZONA 6.5
NFL - 12/9/2007 MINNESOTA atSAN FRANCISCO Over 39
NFL - 12/9/2007 CLEVELAND atNY JETS Under 48
NFL - 12/9/2007 KANSAS CITY atDENVER Over 37.5
NFL - 12/10/2007 NEW ORLEANS atATLANTA Over 43
Lucky Lester
NFL - 12/9/2007 DETROIT 10.5
NFL - 12/9/2007 BUFFALO -7
NFL - 12/9/2007 PHILADELPHIA -3
NFL - 12/9/2007 ARIZONA 7
NFL - 12/9/2007 NY JETS 3
NFL - 12/10/2007 NEW ORLEANS -4
Tom Scott's
ANGLE OF WEEK
Sometimes, no matter how bad the opponent is, a team should not be favored. There’s a situation in the NFL this week that finds a substantial home favorite who has been unable to crack the 21-point mark in any of his last three games. If you can’t score 21 in the NFL it’s difficult to win the game let alone cover a spread as a favorite. For example: All NFL teams who failed to score 21 points in games since 1980 went 2003-4735-179 to the spread, less than 30% winners. Favorites who didn’t come up with the black jack went 594-2063-75 ATS or 22.3% winners. Favorites of -4 or more were 274-1112-21 to the number and less than 20% of the tickets got cashed. With that idea in mind and a little tweak here and there, I present my Angle of the Week:
PLAY AGAINST any NFL division home favorite of -4 or more who failed to score 21 or more points in any of his last three games if he is off a SU and ATS win and is going into revenge.
26 Year ATS = 13-1 for 92.8%
This week’s play = MIAMI over Buffalo