ATS Financial
4 units on the Jacksonville Jaguars (-10 1/2) over the Carolina Panthers, 1:00
3 units on the NY Giants (+3) over the Philadlephia Eagles, 1:00
3 units on the Minnesota Vikings (-8 1/2) over the San Francisco 49'ers, 4:00
vernon croy
Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -9.5/110 Minnesota Vikings Play Title: NFL Super Blowout of the
20 Units, Take Minnesota -9.5, The Vikings are the overall superior team here on both sides of the ball and I have them covering this spread hands down Sunday. The Vikings are blowing out teams over their last 2 games including a road win against the Giants by 24 points and most recently a home win by 32 points over Detroit. I look for Peterson to have another huge game running the ball against this 49ers defense that has allowed 124 rypg this season. The 49ers will be lucky to score more than 7 points against this Vikings defense that has allowed just 70 rypg this season and just 16.3 ppg over their last 3 games. The 49ers are averaging just 9.8 ppg at home while averaging just 209 ypg and that number will not get better Sunday. The Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games when favored. The 49ers are just 2-8 ATS against conference opponents this season and they get blown out Sunday by a solid Vikings team that will continue to get stronger. Take the Vikings as my 20 Unit NFL Super Blowout of the Month
Frank Rosenthal
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 09, 2007
NFL WEEK # 14
105 BOYS-10 SB
107 FISH UNDER 35 SB
109 GMEN+3 SB+
114 PATS-10 SB
UNDER 48 SB
118 BENGALS-9.5 SB+
UNDER 46 SB+
128 DENVER-6.5 SB
UNDER 38 SB
NBA
503 HEAT-2.5 SB
506 BLAZERS-3 SB+
COLLEGE HOOPS
515 ST. JOE+8 SB
519 CAL+2.5 SB
525 BC+5 SB+
539 PORTLAND ST+19.5 SB
GOOD LUCK!
ats lock
10 unit- Steelers+10.5
5 unit- Tampa Bay-3
5 unit- OVER 42 Phil/NYG
Comp Play- Browns-3.5 over NY Jets
Reply With Quote
Selective Sports Systems = -4.50 units
Broncos/Cheifs Under 37.5 for 7 units
Cowboys/Lions Under 51 for 7 units
Miami Dolphins +7 for 5 units
NY Giants +3 for 5 units
Reply With Quote
WILL SYKE'S COMPLIMENTARY PLAY
WILL SYKE'S IS NOW 19-8 FOR FREE PLAYS AT MAUI EXPERTS WITH A UNDEFEATED 6-0 NFL RUN
FOR TODAY: MINNESOTA vs SAN FRANCISCO
MAJOR TRENDS
*Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
*Vikings are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
*Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
FINAL THOUGHTS: No trends to back this up, just straight winning info! These two teams do not know each other well, let me repeat myself, they DO NOT know each other well. Which is why the home team wins almost every time. 9 out of 10 games guess who has won, that's right the home team! Including the home dogs winning straight up 3 of the last 4 times, other times the home favorite covers. Trent Dilfer played horrible last game throwing 4INTs, no way he's throwing 4 more at home. Watch the public pound the Vikings and the line move up. Just hang around a little bit to get the best line, but anything above 7.5 is way too generous at home, against a Vikings QB that is still trying to get used to the system. Remember, wait out this line as you'll see it climb just a little, my book is sitting pretty on 8.5, (with some books at 9) but I will wait it out, and get the best possible line. I don't recommend buying the hook as this game will be alot closer than people think. Don't get psyched by laying the points on a mediocre road team that hasn't proved squat. Just stick with Sykes and you won't be psyched by Vegas.
49ers +9
Lenny Del Genio
triple-dime bet113 PIT 10.5
Analysis:
Play on Pittsburgh at 4:05 ET. Weve been waiting for this game for a while. While New England has been on cruising through their season on their bid for an undefeated run, Pittsburgh has quietly been having a great season. The Steelers own the leagues best defense by a ridiculous 46 yards per game. Theyre second against the rush and first against the pass. Right off the bat, weve got a big underdog that we can count on to stop, or at least contain, the potent New England offense. Pittsburghs offense, meanwhile, can run and pass, and this is exactly the type of team that matches up well with New England. They blitz better than any team in the league, and Tom Brady will have to be away of where the blitz is coming from before he makes his reads. Normally, Brady reads the rush pre-snap. He wont be able to do that this Sunday. Also, while the Patriots ran off eight straight ATS wins to start the year, theyve only covered one of their last four games, and the blame cant be placed on the inflated lines. They beat Baltimore and Philadelphia by three points each, and Indianapolis by four. The real reason is that teams now have New Englands game plan on tape and are starting to figure out how to stop them. The Steelers might get a huge boost with the return of safety Troy Polamalu and receiver Santanio Holmes, but even if they dont, they will still be pumped for this game. Pittsburgh loves getting up for a challenge, going 27-8 ATS against teams with a .750 or better winning percentage. We think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot of knocking off the Pats, and well take the generous points. Play on Pittsburgh.
C&P Experts (8-2 week)
California +3
Raiders over 40
Keith Martin Sports (4-8 week)
Philadelphia Eagles Over 41 (-108)
Minnesota Vikings -9 (+111)
Villanova -3.5 (-105)
Indianapolis Colts -9.5 (+110)
Larry Ness' 20* Division GOY (21-5 FB run / 6-2 with 20*s!)
My 20* play is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. New York's blitz-happy defense had 12 sacks in a Week 4 win at Philly (16-3), with Umenyiora accounting for six of those vs inexperienced tackle Winston Justice. Justice was subbing for an injured William Thomas (who is now back!), one of five key Philadelphia starters inactive for that game. The most notable absence for the Eagles in that contest was do-everything RB Brian Westbrook, the NFL's leader in yards from scrimmage (994 YR / 69 catches for 604 yards). This time around it's the Giants who are dealing with injuries. RB Jacobs has missed the last two games and is a questionable for this one. That's a big deal as Derrick Ward, who rushed for a career-best 154 yards at Chicago LW, broke his left fibula on his final carry and is out for the year. New York is also likely to be without FS Wilson for a 2nd straight week (knee), while fellow defensive starters James Butler (hamstring), Antonio Pierce (ankle) and Aaron Ross (hamstring) are also banged up. WR Burress' production continues to fall with a nagging ankle injury, as after catching eight TDs in his first six games while averaging 16.9 YPC, he's got just one TD catch the last six games, while his YPC is down to 10.3! Eli has six INTs the last two games and just a 17-17 ratio on the year. McNabb is expected to play in this one and while the 5-7 Eagles have no margin of error (regarding any wild card chances), the Giants are 'fat' at 8-4. The Giants have "lived on the edge" in each of their last three road games (all wins), while losing at home to the Cowboys (31-20) and Vikings (41-17) in a five-game stretch. They escaped with a 13-10 win over the winless Dolphins in London, edged the Lions in Detroit 16-10 and then needed two fourth-quarter TDs to beat the Bears last week in Chicago 21-16. The Eagles have shown an ability to deliver with their backs to the wall before and will do so again here, as the Giants have no "miracles up their sleeves" this week. NFC East GOY 20* Phi Eagles.
Feist
Platinum - Minnestoa
Personal - Tampa Bay
Seattle
Totals- Miami/buffalo Under 34.5
Reply With Quote
Burns college hoops
PORTLAND STATE (+18 or better)
Game: Portland State vs. Washington St. Game Time: 12/9/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Portland State Reason: I'm taking the points with PORTLAND STATE. I have a lot of respect for the Cougars and have already successfully backed them twice this season, most recently in their upset win at Gonzaga a few nights ago. That being said, while the defense is excellent, the Cougars don't have the type of explosive offense needed to really blow teams away. Coming off back to back big road wins, I feel that this is too big a spread to be laying vs. a Portland State team which has been playing very well. Indeed, since losing by 21 (as 22 point dogs) at UCLA in their opener, the Vikings have won six of their last eight games, including victories in each of their last three. Note that the two other losses came by a combined nine points. While the Big Sky Conference is obviously not in the same class as the Pac-10, the Vikings are one of its most talented teams. They've got experience and talent at virtually every position and are currently playing better than Montana, which was picked by many to win the conference. Note that Montana comes off a home loss vs. Portland, and the Vikings already beat Portland on the road. I make the comparison to Montana as the Cougars hosted Montana a few weeks back. The Cougars were laying 14 points for that game and they won by 11. Now, in a "letdown spot" off the two big road wins, they're laying several more points against an arguably better Vikings team. The Vikings are already 2-0 ATS in the underdog role this season and they won both those games outright. That brings them to 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they were listed as underdogs, dating back to last January. The Vikings are also a healthy 11-4 ATS their last 15 lined games against teams from the Pac-10 Conference. Look for them to continue to play well as they give the Cougars a much tougher game than expected, easily hanging within the inflated number. *Non. Conf Underdog GOY
Burns NHL
COLORADO
Game: St. Louis Blues vs. Colorado Avalanche Game Time: 12/9/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Colorado Avalanche Reason: I'm laying the price with COLORADO. Both teams are likely to be without a key player this evening. The Blues will be without #1 goalie Legace, while the Avalanche still probably won't have star forward Sakic back in the lineup. While the Avs have been playing without Sakic for some time now, the Blues are still adjusting to the loss of Legace. The Blues have been terrific at home, going 10-3. However, despite a win at Edmonton on Friday, they're still below 500 (6-7) on the road, getting outscored by a 2.8 - 2.2 margin and getting outshot 29-25. The Avs have also been much better at home, as they're 11-3 record here ranks among the best in the league. Note that they've outscored teams by a 3.6 - 2.4 margin here, outshooting opponents by a 31-26 margin. The Avs will be playing with "revenge" as they lost at St. Louis back in October. Colorado coach Joel Quenneville used to coach for the Blues so we know that he'll really want this one. The Avs are 12-5 with three ties the last 20 series meetings here. Catching the Blues without their #1 netminder and playing their third straight away from home, I look for the Avs to continue that dominance here. Best Bet
Brandon Lang
10-DIME TWINS
Eagles -3
Browns -3
5-DIME BONUS
Chargers PK
LT Profits
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars u38.0 (-110)
Sun Dec 9 '07 1:00p
Both the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars easily went Over in their respective games last week, but we feel it will be a different story here in this spot.
The Panthers had the good fortune of facing the defensively challenged San Francisco 49ers, so their 31-point performance should be taken with a grain of salt. They are now facing a quality defense with an immobile fossil at quarterback in Vinny Testaverde, so look for Carolina to return to their level of the previous five games going into last week, over which time they averaged a pathetic 10.0 points per game while being held to single-digits three times.
Now the Jaguars are capable of scoring, but they figure to have a safe lead in the second half here, at which time they would turn to their solid running tandem of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. Besides, this is a natural letdown spot for Jacksonville, facing a non-conference opponent after an emotional game at Indianapolis last week, so do not be surprised if the offense takes at least a full quarter before getting on track.
Thus we look for a very low scoring first half here, with the Jaguars finally pulling away in the second half but not scoring enough to push this game Over.
NFL Free Pick: Panthers, Jaguars Under 38
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans u41.0 (-110)
Sun Dec 9 '07 1:00p
Except for one game in Denver, the San Diego Chargers offense have been pretty much been held in check on the road this season, while Tennessee Titans home games are averaging a combined 35.5 points, so look for a low-scoring contest here.
The Chargers are coming off of a 24-10 win at Kansas City in which LaDainian Tomlinson had a whopping 177 yards rushing, but quarterback Philip Rivers continued to struggle, completing just 10 of 21 passes for 157 yards. Given that the Tennessee pass defense is allowing only 157.8 passing yards per game at home on a miniscule 4.7 yards per pass attempt, you can bet that the Chargers will employ a similar game plan here and keep feeding LT the ball. This should result in some time-consuming drives, which is always good for the Under.
Now the Titans busted out for 28 points last week, but that was vs. a suspect Houston Texans defensive unit. The Chargers have tightened things up significantly on defense since getting torched by Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, as the Chargers have allowed just 16.0 points and 263.0 total yards per game over the last three weeks, being equally efficient vs. the run (3.2 yards per carry) and vs. the pass (5.4 yards per attempt).
The Titans are only averaging 19.0 points per game at home as it is, and we doubt they will surpass that number vs. this Chargers unit. The end result should be a safe Under with this game playing in the mid-30s.
NFL Free Pick: Chargers, Titans Under 41
Jeff Benton
Sunday's early NFL winners ...
30 Dime: JAGUARS (minus the points vs. Panthers)
10 Dime 6-Point Teaser: BILLS & PACKERS ... NOTE: On this play, you want to tease the Bills and Packers down 6 points. So you should be laying around 1 point with Buffalo and 3 1/2 to 4 points with Green Bay, depending on the numbers out there. Both plays are paired together like a parlay, but this is NOT a parlay .. it's a teaser, so make sure you bet it as such!
Jaguars
It seems awkward to say we’re getting “value” with the Jaguars in this game, seeing as they’re laying double digits, but the fact of the matter is, we are. Imagine what this spread would be had Jacksonville pulled off the upset at Indy last week (which some might say it should have) and the Panthers not snapped their losing skid with a win over the god-awful Niners last week. We’d probably be looking at two touchdowns, maybe more.
The fact of the matter is, this is a major, major mismatch. Prior to last week’s 31-17 win over the 49ers, the Panthers had lost five straight games both straight-up and against the number, and they were only competitive in one of those losses, a 20-13 home setback to Joey Harrington and the Falcons. Otherwise, Carolina lost 31-7 to Indy (home), 20-7 to Tennessee (road), 31-17 to Green Bay (road) and 31-6 to New Orleans (home).
With the possible exception of the Packers, none of those other teams are in Jacksonville’s league. Even with the tough loss to the Colts last week, the Jags are 8-4 SU and ATS this season, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. And if you take away a 29-7 home loss to Indy on a Monday night in mid-October – when star QB David Garrard was knocked out with an injury in the first quarter – and here’s what the Jags have done at home: 36-14 rout of Buffalo, 37-17 rout of Houston and 24-17 win over San Diego in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as that score suggests.
Speaking of Garrard, the guy is playing out of his mind this season, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 1,883 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT, which he threw last week against the Colts. His 104.7 QB rating is third-best in the NFL behind Brady and Romo! And with a strong running game (140 rush yards per game) behind Garrard with Taylor and Jones-Drew, the Jags’ offense is extremely multi-dimensional … which is why they’ve scored 24, 24, 28, 24, 36 and 25 points in their last six games!
The Panther’s offense? Well, it continues to be led by the corpse known as Vinny Testaverde. And prior to last week’s 31-point output against lowly San Francisco, Carolina had scored a grand total of 50 points in five games!
Guys, Jacksonville, which is on a 4-0 ATS run as a favorite, will bounce back in a big way today, destroy the Panthers and serve notice once again that they’re a team to be reckoned with come playoff time.
6-point Teaser: Bills & Packers
To repeat, here’s what I want you to do with this play: You take the Bills and tease their number down six points, so you should be laying around 1 point, while teasing the Packers’ number down to about 3 1/2 or 4 points. You put those to plays together in one bet.
Now for a little analysis on both:
BILLS: Pretty simple, here. We basically just need Buffalo to win the game. And considering this one is going to be played in the cold and snow of upstate New York, do you see the 0-12 Dolphins finally getting off the schneid here? I don’t. Hell, the Dolphins haven’t scored an offensive touchdown since the very last play of the third quarter four games ago against the Bills (which Buffalo won 13-10), and they’ve managed just 40 total points the last five weeks. Also, even when they were good, the Dolphins never played well in Buffalo, as they’re 6-14 in their last 20 trips to Ralph Wilson Stadium going back to Dan Marino’s heydey in 1987, including three straight losses the last three years. Finally, the Bills are 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games. The three losses? To the Cowboys, Patriots and Jags, three of the five best teams in the league. Buffalo’s not losing this game, guys, not in bad weather and not against a Miami squad that’s totally snakebit.
PACKERS: Brett Favre practiced on Friday and all indications are he’s going to start and play the entire way today. But even if he’s not 100 percent, I still don’t see how Green Bay doesn’t win this game by more than four points. Not only are they 10-2 (while the Raiders are 4-8), but the Packers’ last five wins have come by margins of 11, 14, 34, 11 and 6 points in games against the Lions, Panthers, Vikings, Chiefs and Broncos. They’re also 4-1-1 ATS as a favorite this season. As for the Raiders, yes, they’ve looked decent the last two weeks, but they beat the Chiefs (on the road) and the Broncos (at home), two teams that are in the toilet right now. Now they have to play an angry and well-rested Packers team – Green Bay has been idle for 10 days – and do so in what is expected to be cold, inclement weather. Good luck. In the end, I see the Packers’ defense (not Favre) dominating this contest and forcing multiple turnovers from whomever lines up under center for Oakland. Green Bay by at least a touchdown.