BEN BURNS
Miami
St Louis
Oakland
Carolina
Washington
STL under
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
**MIAMI 21 Baltimore (-3.5) 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Dec-07
This is Miami’s best chance to get a victory and they know it. Coach Cam Cameron has reinserted Cleo Lemon at quarterback and Lemon is a bit of an upgrade over rookie John Beck, who has started the previous 4 games. Lemon came off the bench last week and played fairly well, but the Dolphins’ offense has been horrible since losing leading rusher and receiver Ronnie Brown after 7 games. Miami actually had a pretty decent offense when Brown was playing, but they’ve averaged only 3.8 yards per play and 9.5 points in 6 games without Brown. The attack will be a little better than that with Lemon at quarterback and Lemon should post good numbers against a depleted Ravens’ secondary that is now without star CB Chris McAlister for the rest of the season and may be without other starting CB Samari Rolle again this week. Neither played last week when they were expected to and the secondary was torched by Peyton Manning. The Ravens were very good defending the pass in 4 games in which McAlister and Rolle both played, including their near upset of the Patriots two weeks ago, but they’ve given up a horrendous 7.7 yards per pass play (against teams that would average 6.3 yppp against an average secondary) in 9 games in which either Rolle or McAlister didn’t play. Miami would be foolish to try to run against the Ravens, but my math model projects a decent 6.2 yards per pass play for Miami in this game. Baltimore’s offense has been 0.8 yards per play worse than average this season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they’re only 0.1 yppl better than that with Kyle Boller at quarterback. Miami’s defense is only 0.3 yppl worse than average, so the Ravens are still going to struggle to move the ball in this game. Baltimore is 0-6 ATS on the road this season and only 4-19 ATS in their last 23 road games when not getting at least 10 points, including 0-7 ATS as a road favorite. Miami hasn’t covered the spread in 5 home games this season but the Dolphins apply to a 47-15-1 ATS subset of a 155-87-5 ATS contrary situation that is actually 11-0 ATS when applying to a winless team. I know it’s tough to bet on a team that is 0-13, but there have been 3 other teams since 1980 that were 0-13 or worse and those teams were 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS with the straight up winners being dogs of 11 ½ and 7 points. The Dolphins will be playing hard in order to avoid a winless season. Baltimore is not going to want to be the first to lose to Miami, but the Ravens just aren’t a good team with their bad offense and banged up secondary and they were horrible on the road even when they were good. While betting on a winless underdog is a good bet, playing against a road favorite on a long losing streak is also wise. Baltimore has lost 7 consecutive games and road favorites of 3 points or more are only 1-6 ATS if they’re riding a 4 games or more losing streak, including 0-3 ATS against a winless team. Road favorites on a 4 games or more losing streak are also just 2-6 straight up and 1-7 ATS against a home team with a win percentage of .125 or less with the two straight up wins coming by 3 points and 1 point. In general it is best to take the underdog in a battle of slumping teams, as underdogs are 59% ATS since 1980 if both teams have lost 3 or more games in a row (8-1 ATS for home dogs if both teams have lost 4 or more games in a row). My math model favors Miami by 1 point and I’ll take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
CAROLINA 17 Seattle (-7.5) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 16-Dec-07
Seattle has won and covered in 5 consecutive games while Carolina is 1-6 straight up and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games with their only win coming against the woeful 49ers. However, those recent trends have been factored into the line on this game more than they should be. Seattle is not as good as their 9-4 record as the Seahawks have played a very easy schedule of teams this season and actually just barely better than an average NFL team. Seattle’s offense has averaged 5.4 yards per play for the season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and the Seahawks have allowed 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average team. Seattle has been helped by a +13 in turnover margin but they are not likely to continue to be +1 in turnover margin going forward. Carolina is a bad offensive team, but Vinnie Testaverde is a better option at quarterback than David Carr was and the Panthers are 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively while rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on defense (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team). My math model only favors Seattle by 4 points in this game and the Panthers apply to a strong 52-11-3 ATS contrary indicator that favored Houston over Tampa Bay last week for a Best Bet winner. Seattle is just 9-23 ATS under coach Holmgren after a win over a division rival and this certainly looks like a letdown spot for the Seahawks, who just clinched the NFC West with last week’s win over the Cardinals. I’m going to hold off on making this game a Best Bet because the Panthers are 0-8 ATS recently when hosting a team with a .500 or better record. There is certainly enough here to consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
Vegas Vic
Bears (+10) over VIKINGS
This selection is not so much about the talent on the field, but more about the mind-set off the field. In the last game between these ancient rivals from the old Black & Blue division, Minnesota posted a 34-31 victory at Chicago, but it wasn't so much the score, as the phenomenal rushing effort of Vikings rookie Adrian Peterson. In only his fifth game, Peterson rumbled for 224 yards, scoring touchdowns on runs of 67, 73 and 35 yards. That was the most yards the Bears defense has given up, ever! And that goes back 88 years. Then, we have to take a look at the inflated double-digit spread in a historic context. The last time Da Bears were a double-digit 'dog was in 2004. Guess where? Yup, Minnesota. Guess who covered? Yup, Chicago. The final score was 27-22 Minny, which sounds just about right for this Monday night affair.
STEELERS (-3) over Jaguars
If we're talking about embarrassing, Sunday's 34-13 loss to New England has to be at the top of Pittsburgh's list. The Steelers will lose, and even lose by more than 10 points every now and then, but it's the way they bounce back from a nasty loss that has caught our attention. Over the last few years, after a double-digit loss, Pittsburgh has roared back, covering seven of the last eight. At 87.5 percent, it's a number we can live with and wager on. Another number we can live with, and it doesn't get any better, is 100 percent. That's the Steelers' flow chart at Heinz Field so far this season with a 7-0 mark. Mix in some temperatures in the high 20s or low 30s, a few inches of snow, and you have the perfect scenario for Pittsburgh to complete its 2007 home schedule at 8-0 against this group of invaders from Florida.
Ravens (-3) over DOLPHINS
We all know Miami is the only team ever to post a perfect record (17-0 in 1972), and now the Dolphins can add the bookend - an 0-16 season. At least Miami was somewhat competitive over the first half of the season, but getting outscored, 81-30, the last three times out, and averaging only 10 points per game on offense is a sign that this team has flat-out quit on first-year coach Cam Cameron. And after getting humiliated by Peyton Manning and the Colts Sunday, the Ravens' emotional Ray Lewis will have his defense ready for a huge effort in the town where he played his college ball at the University of Miami.
Titans (-3) over CHIEFS
Playing against Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium was a no-no for many years, but not this season. The Chiefs stumble into their home finale with an ugly 2-5 record straight up there and a 1-5-1 record against the spread.
Redskins (+5) over GIANTS
OK, so the New Yorkers are road warriors, winning six of seven away from home. But when the Giants come back to New Jersey, their 3-3 record in just adequate. And in the prevous two at home, the G-Men have been outscored, 72-37. Washington kept its playoff hopes alive with a 24-16 effort against Chicago last Thursday, and a win here would even the record and put the Redskins right in the thick of the wild-card race.
Eagles (+10) over COWBOYS
Not too many bright spots in Philly this season, but take the show out of town, and you'll find a silver lining, with the Birds working on a 4-0 streak against the spread.
Jets (+23) over PATRIOTS
Remember the last time we had New England as a 20-something point favorite? The Pats almost lost and had no shot at covering the humongous spread in a 31-28 win over the Eagles. Just call it d?j? vu all over again.
I also like:
49ERS (+9) over Bengals
Cardinals (+3) over SAINTS
Falcons (+13) over BUCCANEERS
Bills (+5) over BROWNS
RAMS (+9) over Packers
PANTHERS (+ over Seahawks
RAIDERS (+11) over Colts
Lions (+10) over CHARGERS
OC DOOLEY COMP
10-2 past twelve days
“1 UNIT” SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL (Giants -4’ at home versus Redskins in an 8:20 eastern kickoff on NBC): It has been an emotional rollercoaster for Washington who still is on the very fringe of the NFC playoffs, even though a postseason appearance looks very bleak due to 4 consecutive recent losses where they blew leads in the fourth quarter. Of course the Redskins are still stunned by the death of their best player, Pro Bowl safety Sean Taylor, who was shot and killed at his home two weeks ago. After getting some much needed “closure” following his funeral, Washington went out and snapped that 4-game skid last Thursday in a what turned out to be a very expensive home triumph against Chicago. In that 24-16 triumph, starting quarterback Jason Campbell was lost early due to a dislocated kneecap, which most likely will sideline him for the remainder of the season. 36 year-old Todd Collins came off the bench and actually played quite well, but the odds of him pulling off solid statistics two weeks in a row are rather remote, since the Giants have one of the league’s top-rated defenses. Before last Thursday’s appearance, Collins had thrown a grand total of just 27 passes since being benched by Buffalo TEN long years ago. The key to this evening’s pick in my mind actually has to do with the tough SCHEDULE that the Giants are going to have to deal with down the stretch. After tonight’s clash against an opponent with a sub .500 record, New York will once again take to the road and play a Buffalo team that nearly upset another squad from the NDC East (Dallas) earlier in the campaign. The Giants will wrap up the regular season in what could be a historical contest against undefeated New England, so they really need to win this evening. The bottom line is that the Giants control their own destiny as a victory this evening clinches an NFC wild-card playoff berth. For years, the Giants had fallen victim to poor second-half performances, but this time they have avoided falling into a swoon, after reeling off SEVEN consecutive victories in the early stages of the campaign. In the past two weeks against desperate opponents on the road, the Giants came away with consecutive hard-fought victories at both Chicago and Philadelphia. In that game in the Windy City two weeks ago, the Bears literally led all the way until the very late stages of the fourth quarter as the Giants showed amazing composure. Last Sunday the Giants won again even though they were playing without a pair of injured safeties in their defensive secondary. In my opinion, New York is due not only for an “easy” victory, but also cakewalk in front of the HOME fans. The last time they played at Giants Stadium, New York got trounced 41-17 by Minnesota which plunged the overall home season record to just the .500 mark. My database research indicates that in the past three years, the Giants are a solid 23-12 ATS when facing conference opposition. Ever since Tom Coughlin has been head coach, the Giants have gone 14-5 ATS after winning 2 of the prior 3 outings straight-up. As for Washington, they are a disastrous 3-14 ATS when playing their final DIVISIONAL ROAD game of the season, which is the case tonight. In this Redskins/Giants series, the FAVORITE has successfully covered the spread 10 of the past 15 times.
Jim Rich~Fade away
Lost last night
last week 5-11
95~111
Pats over 46
Giants over 36 1/2
Bucs over 49
Miami over 37 1/2
Seattle over 37
Pack over 44
Philly under 48 1/2
Jags over 37
Vikes over (mon) 43
cards over 48
brownies over 43 1/2
colts under 45
lions over 45 1/2
Reply With Quote
ATS Financial Package
NFL
4units on the San Diego Chargers (-9 1/2) over the Detroit Lions, 4:00
4 units on the St Louis Rams (+9) over the Green Bay Packers, 1:00
CBB
3 units on Fresno State (+19 1/2) over Arizona, 3:00
Ted Sevransky Comp
Take the Over - Pitt/Jak
Pure Lock Free Plays
Arizona @ New Orleans 1:00 Pm Est
Play On: Arizona (+) Pts
Ken Jenkins
3 unit Green Bay/St. Louis over
THE GOLD SHEET- CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF
10 *TAMPA BAY over Atlanta
Late Score Forecast:
*TAMPA BAY 27 - Atlanta 6
(Sunday, December 15)
With Bucs nearly in total control in the NFC South, look for them to bounce back with a vengeance from last week’s sloppy defeat in Houston. More importantly in this matchup, CKO insiders remind us that T.B. is now strong whereAtlanta is weak—namely, at DE vs. OT (where the Falcons have lost two starters and one top backup TY). DEs Greg White & Gaines Adams have combined for 13 sacks, and , on offense,Bucs RB Earnest Graham (798 YR) hasbeen a valuable workhorse.
10* CHICAGO over *Minnesota
Late Score Forecast:
CHICAGO 24 - *Minnesota 23
(Monday, December 16)
Yes, the Vikes and their young offense is good. But Minnesota is still vulnerable vs. the pass on defense. And,while the defending NFC champs are virtually out of the playoffs, they still have plenty of coaching, talent, and pride.And they haven’t been a double-digit underdog in more than three years,and they covered that one (at Minnesota!).
TOTALS:
OVER (51) in the New York Jets-New England game—Pointspread is high, but total is reasonable if Pats want to run up the score; N.E. “over” 10-3 TY...
OVER (38) in the in the Seattle-Carolina game—Seahawk offense (30 ppg last 7) in a groove
Larry Ness
My 20* NFL Game of the Year is on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 1:00 ET. I predicted at the beginning of the year that the Jags would be a playoff team and at 9-4 SU and ATS through 13 games, my pick looks good. Del Rio's decision to go with Garrard over Leftwich at QB has been justified, as Garrard has posted a 103.3 QB rating with a 13-1 ratio! The running game took a while to get going but Taylor has topped 100 yards in three straight (he's averaging over 7.0 YPC in those games!) and Jones-Drew is always there if needed. The pass D has been just so-so but the rush D, after allowing 282 yards in Week 1, has allowed just 77.3 YPG the last 12! However, if you think I'm going with the Jags, I'm NOT! Garrard can't throw downfield and his WRs are very average. Defensively, LB Peterson is likely out for the year, DE Hayward (the team's best pass rusher) is questionable and DT Stroud (the team's BEST player!) has just been placed on IR (returned from a four-game suspension LW but got hurt!). As for Pittsburgh, FORGET the New England game! Prior to the Pats, Pittsburgh ranked No. 1 in scoring D, total D (No. 1 in pass / No. 2 in rush) and not much has changed! The rush D allows 72.6 YPG (3.6 per and just 3 TDs!) and the pass D allows 172.8 YPG with a league-best 54.8%! Big Ben is having an excellent year, while Willie Parker is now the NFL leader in rushing (league-high seven 100-plus games). RB Davenport can block, catch and convert on short-yardage. Ward leads a receiving corps that will have little trouble with the Jags' mediocre pass D (allows 60 YPG more than Pitt's does). Other than the Pats, the Steelers are the only other unbeaten home team (7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS). They only have a one game lead over the Browns in the AFC North and although their final two games are against the Rams and Ravens (a combined 7-19), the Steelers have played so poorly on the road, I believe they'll be highly focused for their final home game. The Steelers ate some "humble pie" last week but this Sunday, Pittsburgh will have to respond to their "doubters." After two consecutive three-point wins, the Pats "answered all questions" vs the Steelers. I believe Pittsburgh will do like-wise here. Big Ben has been outstanding at home, completing 71.0% with a 12-5 ratio and a QB rating of 105.5. The Steelers edged the Browns by three points and also beat Miami just 3-0 but that was in a downpour. In Pittsburgh's other five home games, the margins have been 23, 21, 21, 31 and 14! Pitt will also remember last year's Week 2 loss (MNF) at Jacksonville 9-0, when Big Ben was making his first appearance after his motorcycle accident (141 YP / 0-2 ratio). The Jags are in the "wrong place at the wrong time!" NFL Game of the Year 20* Pittsburgh Steelers.
Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)
Game: Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams
Technical Set: Green Bay is 16-3 Over when playing in Domed Stadiums, 7-3 Over versus the NFC West, 8-1 Over coming off a non-conference game, 35-15 Over vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game since 1992, 16-6 Over in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992, 41-24 Over after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992, 8-1 Over after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. ST Louis is 13-4 Over vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since 1992, 22-9 Over vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992, 6-1 Over when playing at home and facing Green Bay, 10-2 Over at home versus non-division opponents playing with revenge, 6-1 Over the game after facing Cincinnati, 8-2 Over versus the NFC North. Situational Set: Play Over NFL road teams against the total off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, 31-9 Over the last ten seasons. Play Over NFL home teams against the total off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more, 35-14 Over the last ten years. Play Over NFL road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, after the first month of the season, 36-11 Over the last five seasons. After Game 13 of the season Play Over on non-divisional road favorites of 5+ points when they are coming off a SU win in their last game, 18-6 Over since 1989, this Situational Set has posted a record of 8-1 Over the last three seasons. Two of the last three in this series played in St Louis have gone over the posted total and six of the last ten overall.
Selection: GREEN BAY PACKERS / ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER
Gator's Super System Selections
Each week during the football, basketball and baseball season's we will post our Top Rated System Selections along with the qualifying system.
Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
System: Play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 2 points with a total under 59 points off a non-saturday home contest allowing 32+ points in their last game and a road contest allowing 31+ points in their game before that, 22-2 ATS
Selection: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-)
NFL (Sunday)
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play On NFL home teams off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG), 30-6 ATS since 1983.
SELECTION: PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-)
MARC LAWRENCE
PLAY BOOK / MIDWEEK UPDATE
ARIZONA over New Orleans by 7
After starting the season 0-4, the Saints put
themselves in a major hole. That?s confirmed by
the fact that, since 1980, not one team in the NFL
that started the season with four consecutive losses has
gone on to make the playoffs. Does New Orleans have the
moxie to become the first maiden to enter playoff waters
We dont think so. Not when your team allows more yards
per game than it gains. And not when your defense ranks
in the bottom five of the league. Arizona, on the other hand,
is a dangerous club that won?t accept the fact the playoffs
are out of reach. Sure, they no longer control their postseason
fate, but with games remaining against the Saints
(today), the Falcons and the Rams, they wont quit trying.
We like hungry dogs with better defenses, especially against
teams that are 0-13-1 ATS at home down the stretch
(Games 13-16) versus an opponent off a road game. Add
to that New Orleans? shameful 2-17 ATS record as a home
favorite against teams off a loss and you can understand
our feelings about the Saints likelihood of being a playoff
squad this season. After all, what ye reap so shall ye sew
CAROLINA over Seattle by 1
Last week?s meltdown aside, for a 4-8 squad the
Panthers bring decent numbers into this contest.
For openers theyve had plenty of success against
the NFC West under John Fox, going 10-3 SUATS (10-1
last eleven). The time zone difference is certainly a factor
and should help this week, too, with a 1:00 PM ET
scheduled kickoff (10:00 AM PST body clock time for the
Seahawks). With similar defenses (two yards apart)
squaring off, the edge is on the ground for Carolina, a
certified 4x4 running dog. Toss in the fact Seattle clinched
the NFC West division race with last week?s 21-point home
romp over Arizona and we?ve got ourselves a live home
dog ready to bark up its 7-0 ATS mark when seeking
revenge off a double-digit loss. Mix in the Seahawks
atrocious 1-9 ATS record as road chalk in games off
back-to-back SUATS wins and the table is set with a bowl
full of M&Ms the candy that melts in your mouth, not in
your hand. Take your choice, plain or peanut either way
Seattle figures to be shell-shocked here today.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
BEST BETS
5* BEST BET
MINNESOTA over Chicago by 20
Dont look now, Martha, but here come the Vikings. Given up for
lost at 2-5, theyve stormed their way in to playoff contention.
In an earlier meeting this season, Minnesota edged the Bears
in Chicago, 34-31. Da Bears enter tonight?s contest 14-25 SUATS
on Mondays since 1980, including 1-10 ATS versus an opponent
off a SUATS win. Minny counters at 6-1 ATS under the Monday
Night lights off a win when going into revenge.
4* BEST BET
Jacksonville over PITTSBURGH by 7
NFL games during the final four games of the season involving
.666 or better teams squaring off against one another have
seen the road dog bring home the bacon 62% of the time.
Better yet, if they beat their home favored opponent in the
most recent meeting, they are 19-9 ATS. Toss in Jack Del Rios
glossy 13-7 ATS record as a dog versus .700 or better opposition
and it certainly instills confidence. With favorites just 8-22 ATS
in games after tackling the Patriots, and Pitt shell-shocked off
last weeks disappointing effort at New England, look for the
Jags to pounce on this opportunity.
3* BEST BET
Washington over NY GIANTS by 6
G-Men came up big again last week while the Redskins overcame
the melodrama of the Sean Taylor saga to get past the Bears last
Thursday. The Skins are 8-1 ATS with revenge against a division
foe off a win when their record is below .500. And don?t forget
Joe Gibbs? 28-15-1 ATS mark as a dog ?down the stretch? during
the final four games of the season, including 19-7 when taking
more than 3 points. Until the RIP officially goes up, we?ll race to
the wire with Gibbs? team.
THE REST
Arizona over NEW ORLEANS by 2
As the King once said, its Now or Never for each of these wannabes.
The Saints have never been any good when hosting a foe off an
away game, just 11-28 SUATS. And the anointed ones turn dastardly
in games after performing on Mondays, as they are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS
in these follow-up affairs. Prefer the Redbirds' smart 6-2 ATS dog
log under first year skipper Ken Whisenhunt.
ndianapolis over OAKLAND by 11
After back-to-back upset wins, Oakland showed its true colors in a
38-7 no-show loss at Green Bay last week. It?s back home where they
take on the Super Bowl champs knowing the SU loser in Raiders?
Game Fourteen matchups is 1-16 ATS. Yech. Theyre also 1-94-1 ATS
in their last 96 straight-up home losses. We don't want any of that!
SAN DIEGO over Detroit by 10
The Chargers stormed back to outscore the Titans 20-0 from the 4Q
out to win in overtime while the Lions choked like Grandma Heimlich
in handing the Cowboys a gift-wrapped one-point victory. Dont
know about you but we think Norv Turner?s task will be an easier one
than Rod Marinellis this week. Problem is laying points with Turner
in one of his worst roles (he has many): 10-20 ATS as a favorite of 5 or
more points, including 4-13 ATS from Game Eight out. Pass.
DALLAS over Philadelphia by 8
Another matchup of two teams off down-to-the wire fi nishes, this time
a division rematch from earlier this year when the Cowboys fl attened
Philly, 38-17. It marked the 2nd worst division loss ever suffered by
Andy Reid, who remains tough when avenging division defeats (18-8-
1 ATS, including 11-2 away). However, Dallas is battling for home fi eld
advantage while the Eagles are just battling a case of the lumps.
TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 8
The sight of the Pirate ship normally finds the Bucs in a rapacious
mood... except at this stage of the season. Thats because Chucky
returns home in a not-so-comfortable ?down the stretch? role where,
during his NFL career as a head coach, he is 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS when
hosting a .666 or less opponent, including 0-4 ATS when off a loss
during the fi nal four weeks of the season. Don?t forget, in a 31-7
win over the Falcons a month ago, Tampa outgained Atlanta by a
305-275 margin. Be careful here, mate.
Baltimore over MIAMI by 4
After fending off attacks from the likes of Black Bart and Wild Bill
Hitchcock the past two weeks, the Ravens welcome the sight of Pee
Wee Herman this week. Miamis water-pistol offense has averaged
a mere 9.5 PPG since Halloween, helping make every NFL defensive
coordinator sleep better these days. Baltimore?s 10-1 ATS mark as
non-division road chalk of 5 or less points could have us reaching for
our Smith & Wesson as you read this.
CLEVELAND over Buffalo by 6
Both teams come in off solid wins but they bring nothing but bad
ATS numbers to today's game. The Browns are a money-burning 0-9
at home in December taking on a non-division foe while Buffalo
has dropped eight straight taking points after a Miami game. The
deeper we dig, the worse it gets... better to look elsewhere.
ST. LOUIS over Green Bay by 1
The Rams' recent turnaround has been a pleasant surprise and were
not about to pull the rug just yet. They beat the Packers last year in
Green Bay (as 2.5 point favs) and are a rather robust 13-3 SU & 11-5
ATS home from Games 13-16 since 1998, including 8-2 ATS versus an
opponent off a win. Yes, we?re feeling a bit Ram-bunctious again
here today.
NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets by 24
Another 20-point dog rears its head today, this one with 38-14
same-season revenge. That win moved the Pats mark against the
Jets to 6-1 ATS in this series. It also improved the road team?s record
to 15-2 ATS in this series since 1999. While we?re never in a hurry to
lay double sawbucks we'd probably serve ourselves well to recall
that it was Eric Mangini, a former Bill Belichick assistant, who spilled
the beans on his ex-boss about Spygate.
Seattle over CAROLINA by 4
Panthers let us down with a no-show performance last week in
Jacksonville while the Seahawks were busy wrapping up the NFC
West title with a decisive win over Arizona. With that we note this
hungry home dog is 7-0 ATS with revenge off a double-digit ATS
loss while Seattle is 0-5 ATS as road favorites of more than 4 points
off back-to-back wins if the last win was by 10 or more points. Hold
your nose and grab the points.
KANSAS CITY over Tennessee by 1
The Chiefs are falling faster than the Dow Jones, having dropped
each of their last five games as they prepare for their fi nal home
game of the 2007 season. LHG?s have served Kansas City well,
evidenced by a 17-7-2 ATS mark, including 7-0 SUATS after allowing
30 or more points in its previous game and 5-0 SUATS as dogs.
Meanwhile, the Titans must try to get it back up after last week?s
4Q (and overtime) collapse against the Chargers. It might prove to
be a tough task in the Teepee today.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
NBA
Sunday, December 16th
Golden State over DETROIT by 6
Improved Warriors catch the Pistons in a nice spot looking dead
ahead to the old kids on the block ? the Boston Celtics. It doesn?t
hurt knowing Detroit is just 6-12 ATS in games before Boston (4-10
as chalk). Better yet, State has been golden in this series, bagging the
cash in 11 of the last 13 games. With the Motor City bunch taking the
court for the 5th time in the last 8 days, look for Don Nelson?s guys
to improve to 10-4 ATS at Eastern Conference sites when seeking
same-season revenge here this afternoon.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Sunday, December 16th
LA-MONROE over LA-Lafayette by 17
The Tribe split games with state rival Ragin? Cajuns last season,
winning at home before being waxed in a 29-point loss at Lafayette.
Monroe won 18 games last campaign and returns all fi ve starters
from that unit. Since coming on board two years ago, the Indians
are 9-0-1 ATS as hosts. Look for a major payback here today as
Lafayette loses the battle of Waterloo!
S. Spritzer's NFL 25* Conf. Underdog of the Year! (*21-9, 70%)
I'm taking the points with the Panthers, my NFC Dog of the Year. Sometimes we come across incredibly strong situations when handicapping the NFL card. This is the best I've seen all season for a team getting this many points. First of all, the Seahawks are in the tough spot of playing in an east coast early kickoff. More importantly, they're off a win over Arizona that wrapped up the division title last week, and realistically they have nothing more to shoot for. Thirdly, the Panthers, although likely out of a postseason berth, still think they have a shot to make the playoffs and fully understand that it's now or never for them. Vinny Testeverde is listed as probable, with Matt Moore and David Carr also available. No matter who gets the majority of the reps, this Carolina team knows they can handle the weak NFC West. After all, the Panthers are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against Seattle's division mates. They whipped the Cardinals, 25-10, and knocked off St. Louis, 27-13. In fact, just two weeks ago, in the middle of a cold streak, Carolina was still good enough to crush the NFC West 49ers, 31-14. Now, they face a slightly disinterested Seahawks' team who's only impressive road win came against those Niners. Seattle lost at Arizona, got shutout at Pittsburgh, lost at Cleveland, and barely escaped at St. Louis and Philly. Not exactly a solid resume for laying more than a TD away from home. As far as the matchups are concerned, WR Steve Smith will finally go against a defense that doesn't double-team. He's been doubled almost all season and I believe he'll make the most of his matchup against a good, but inconsistent Marcus Trufant. Seattle also likes to gamble up front, pinning their ears back play-after-play. Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams can burn this defense with his speed. And, I expect to see plenty of screens to counter the Seattle pass rush. Look for Carolina to surprise the NFC West champs. I'm taking the points with the Panthers, my NFC Dog of the Year. Thanks! GL! S.
T. Strikers's 7* NFL Game of the Year - 21-2 ATS System
#258 TAMPA BAY (-12') over Atlanta at 1 PM EST
The season can't end fast enough for Atlanta. The Falcons are without two of their most important assets - QB Michael Vick and now head coach Bobby Petrino. If that wasn't bad enough, Atlanta's recent play only makes this spot worse. On an ugly 0-4 SU and ATS run, the Falcons have surrendered an average of 31.0 ppg and scored an average of just 12.5 ppg over the past four weeks!
There is a really strong system that goes against Atlanta here as well. Since 1980, game 10 or later road teams that arrive off three consecutive double-digit straight up losses are a shocking 12-43 ATS provided they were NOT shutout in their last game. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .500, this situation dips to a dismal 2-21 ATS! The Falcons fit both parts of this system!
With the NFC South title on the line, Tampa Bay won't screw around. This is actually a phenomenal spot for the Bucs. As a favorite coming off a straight up loss as a favorite, Tampa has been incredible notching a sweet 21-3 SU and ATS record. Provided the Bucs were favored by -7 or less last, this team trend explodes to a sensational 18-1 SU and ATS! The Bay fits both situations perfectly.
As an underdog of +10 or more coming off a straight up loss of 10 points or more, the Falcons have crash landed posting an ugly 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS mark provided they're matched up against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage greater than .600. The Atlanta faithful will be hoping the team rallies after this week's turn of events. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers smell blood and they're going to go for the jugular. Take Tampa Bay. Thank you and best of luck, T. Striker.