Gold Sheet Key Releases:
Houston
Chicago
Pitt/Buff Over
THE GOLD SHEET
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 16
OVER THE TOTAL PITTSBURGH 30 - Buffalo 17--Pittsburgh has been a high-pay "over" team at Heinz (14-1-1 last 16!), thanks partly to LY's Ben Roethlisberger interceptions (an NFL-leading 23 during injury-plagued season). He has focused on avoiding them (none in opener; but 4 TDP) since the start of training camp. The Polamalu-sparked zone-blitz defense should cause plenty of problems for the rebuilt Buffalo OL (at least three new starters TY).
(04-Pittsburgh +9' 29-24...SR: Pittsburgh 12-9)
Cincinnati 27 - CLEVELAND 13--Bengals' superior offense dominated in LY's meetings, with Cincy outscoring hated rival 64-17. Considering Cleveland's instability in OL and secondary, plus its dubious situation at QB, prefer to rely on Carson Palmer, "Ocho Cinco," and mates to extend their 15-4-1 spread mark last 20 as visitor. Is Jamal Lewis (35 YR in opener) really the answer for Browns at RB? Palmer, 49 of 72 vs. Cleveland LY, now further removed from Jan. 2006 knee injury.
Indianapolis 23 - TENNESSEE 20--Predictions of the demise of the 2007 Indy defense (5-6 new starters after free agency & injuries) have turned out to be premature. But upstart Tennessee and Vince Young gave Colts all they could handle LY, covering both meetings and winning the second. Can Titans pound out another 278 YR, as they did in Jacksonville, vs. smallish Indy defense on grass? Last four in series "under."
Houston 20 - CAROLINA 16--Not sure that a win over the struggling Chiefs is a definitive "buy" signal for Houston. And we'll see if the supposedly-improved Texans OL can deal with Julius Peppers & friends. But there are enough other indicators that Texans might be a team to watch, especially with top '06 draftee Mario Williams 2 (sacks, fumble ret. TD vs. KC) making an impact, new QB Matt Schaub proving a quick study in Gary Kubiak's offense, and rookie WR find Jacoby Jones making it trickier for opposing defenses to double up on Andre Johnson.
(03-HOUSTON +6' 14-10...SR: Houston 1-0)
San Francisco 23 - ST. LOUIS 17--We're not going to blame St. Louis low-keying it in preseason for their shoddy effort in opening loss vs. Carolina. But Steven Jackson (two fumbles, only 58 YR) looked as if he could have used a few more carries in August. And we're beginning to wonder what options def. cord. Jim Haslett might have with a DL that's counting on rookie NGs Carriker & Ryan to slow the run, but was trampled in opener. With presence of Frank Gore for S.F., QB Alex Smith now mature enough to take advantage.
NY GIANTS 26 - Green Bay 14--During LY's rebuilding season, Packers were 5-2-1 as a road dog. But G.B.'s offense failed to impress in Week One, generating no TDs, even though the defense did perform well in holding Philly to 13. Giants offense owns the better weapons in this one, and their greater imperative to avoid 0-2 start should be another help. N.Y. has the pass rushers (check Umenyiora) that cause Bret Favre to hurry. He'll have to wait before passing John Elway on the QB win list.
(04-NY Giants +6' 14-7...SR: Green Bay 28-22-2)
JACKSONVILLE 24 - Atlanta 9--Tough start for the unintended new era in Atlanta. First, Vick-less Falcons had to deal with the stingy run defense of the Vikings. Now, they must contend with embarrassed Jacksonville defense after it allowed 278 YR in opener. Good chance the Atlanta defense wears down chasing QB Garrard, RB F. Taylor, and mini-bull RB/KR Maurice Jones-Drew (TDs in eight straight games to end LY). Jags 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at home.
(03-ATLANTA -3 21-14...SR: Jacksonville 2-1)
New Orleans 21 - TAMPA BAY 20--Buccaneers already beat up (check status of QB Garcia and RB C. Williams). But T.B. and Jon Gruden used to playing shorthanded after doing it for virtually all of LY! Vaunted Saints' offense failed to score a TD in opener at Indy, and Bucs familiar with the Drew Brees-Reggie Bush attack. It bodes poorly to start 0-2 in the NFL, so look for desperation fight from host.
(06-NEW ORLEANS -6' 24-21, New Orleans P 31-14...SR: New Orleans 19-11)
DETROIT 23 - Minnesota 16--Minny has won last ten meetings in series!!! However, with inexperienced QB Tarvaris Jackson making just the second road start of his career (generated just 3 FDs and 104 total yards in LY's 9-7 foul-weather loss in G.B.; only TD scored via int.), must side with veteran Jon Kitna in this one. After all, Detroit prefers the pass on offense; Vikes excel vs. the run. Time for streak to end, despite new Minny RB Adrian Peterson (103 YR, 60 receiving in opener).
(06-MINNESOTA -6' 26-17, Minnesota +1' 30-20...SR: Minnesota 60-29-2)
Dallas 20 - MIAMI 19--Cowboys put on an exciting offensive show with their 45-point outburst Sunday night vs. the Giants. But points won't come so easy vs. veteran Miami defense, fired up to avoid that debilitating 0-2 start (when chances of making the playoffs dip way down). With Dallas secondary vulnerable, look for Trent Green (24 of 38 in opener at Washington) to improve in Cam Cameron's official home debut.
(03-Miami +3 40-21...SR: Miami 7-4)
ARIZONA 24 - Seattle 23--Regular-season home debut of Arizona HC Ken Whisenhunt. And Seattle was 0-4 as a road favorite in LY's injury-plagued season. If Cardinals intend on being a factor in the NFC West race, beating the three-time defending division champs would go a long way. So, will "take" with Arizona's young talent maturing, and will look "over" (5 of last 6 in series "over;" Seahawks 14-3-1 "over" on road.)
(06-SEATTLE -7 21-10, ARIZONA +3 27-21...SR: EVEN 8-8)
BALTIMORE 23 - NY Jets 10--Baltimore defense tends to be even nastier at home (only 12 ppg LY), where Ravens are 17-8-1 last 26 when favored ("under" 11 of last 17 as host). Will N.Y.'s decision to dump starting G Pete Kendall come back to haunt the Jets (especially Chad Pennington) vs. the rugged Pryce-Gregg-Ngata Baltimore defensive front? Quite likely, especially if RB Thomas Jones (42 YR Game One) can't get going. If LT Jonathon Ogden (turf toe) ready to go, RB McGahee should enjoy nice home debut.
(05-BALTIMORE -7 13-3...SR: Baltimore 4-1)
DENVER 20 - Oakland 14--Things might have gone better for Oakland in its opener had Sebastian Janikowski not destroyed Raider momentum by going 0-3 on FGs. Still, Oakland did appear to be out of LY's malaise, with Josh McCown operating Lane Kiffin's quick passing game well enough to hit 30 of 40 (but 2 ints., 1 lost fumble). They have a good chance to improve some in second game against hated rival. Nine of last 11 in series "under."
06-DENVER -14 13-3, Denver -9 17-13...SR: Oakland 54-39-2)
CHICAGO 29 - Kansas City 6--With K.C. QB & receivers far from scary, Larry Johnson (only 10 for 43 in opener) figures to find slow going vs. Brian Urlacher and the rugged Chicago front seven, especially with DT Tommie Harris looking 100% after LY's injury. Chiefs' shaky OTs will have their hands full vs. Bears' DE rotation of A. Ogunleye, A. Brown & Mark Anderson. Bears (4 giveaways last week in S.D.) 2-0 vs. spread in regular season LY after a loss.
(03-KANSAS CITY -8' 31-3...SR: Chicago 5-4)
*NEW ENGLAND 23 - San Diego 22--Chargers want revenge for their 4th-Q collapse vs. Pats in LY's AFC playoffs. Truly, there are easier teams to seek revenge against. However, S.D. has now won 11 straight in regular season, and Chargers 12-1-2 last 15 as a dog! Their only 3 losses LY (including playoffs) by 3 points each! Tom Brady (22 of 28), Randy Moss (9 for 183; hates "quiz shows"), and Wes Welker (6 recs.) went "nuts" in N.E. opener vs. Jets. But Chargers tougher than Jets; N.E. defense missing starters Seymour & Harrison. TV--NBC
(06-New England +4' 24-21 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: New England 18-14-2)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17
*PHILADELPHIA 19 - Washington 16--Donovan McNabb (15 of 33) was a little slow on the trigger in his return at G.B. Philly defense did not allow a TD, but Packers benefited enormously from two muffed punts. Much is being asked of young Wash. QB J. Campbell (only 8 career starts; 222 YP last week). But ground game (182 yds. vs. Miami) and defense giving him solid support. Redskins' conservative style has helped series go "under" 6 of last 7 meetings. CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-PHILADELPHIA -7 27-3, Philadelphia -1' 21-19...SR: Washington 75-64-5)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Washington and Philadelphia on Monday Night
Washington is 8-18 straight-up and 8-18 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
16-11 straight-up and 15-11-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Philadelphia is 15-10 straight-up and 16-9 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
9-10 straight-up and 11-8 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2006 Reg. Seas.: Philadelphia -1½ beat Washington 21-19 at Washington
Reg. Seas.: Philadelphia -7 beat Washington 27-3 at Philadelphia
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-06)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 83, Lost 87, Tied 3
Favored by 7 points or more Won 32, Lost 25, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 115, Lost 112, Tied 5
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 83, Lost 83, Tied 5
Home Team Underdog Won 29, Lost 31
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 113, Lost 114, Tied 5
Sports Marketwatch - Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 2
9/14/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights.com
Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 2
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square bettor with favorites going 9-2. It appeared some teams could have used an extra week of pre-season. The 1pm games started the slide for the sportsbooks, but Denver and Jacksonville failing to cover and a lot of blow outs helped break up teasers and parlay action. The 4pm games and late game put the nail in the coffin. It was an ugly day of payouts for the sportsbooks when they opened the doors on Monday.
Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a big goose egg, going 0-3. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0 but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the season off slow, going 1-2 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the NFL Regulars season with a (31-18 = 63.3%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your research.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public had a monster weekend, 7-2. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis fell flat on its face going 0-3.
View Last Week’s Column
Promotion:
Free Premium Pro Membership! There has never been a better time to try Sports Insights award winning information. Receive a Free Premium Pro Membership . Click for Details
This Week’s NFL Action
This week, we’re hoping that “our dogs” are awake and ready for some action. In our last article, we mentioned four major criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them again:
• Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money
• Negative press
We anticipate Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Each one of these teams is receiving well over 90% of the bets placed. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins
I circled this game because it appears to the untrained eye to be a soft line, which is causing the early Public money to pound Dallas. The line has moved from Dallas -3 to -4. Every week there are typically 2 or 3 games with what appear to be soft lines. These are the games the sportsbooks make a killing on. If it looks too easy, we always take the other side. The odds makers in Vegas know what they are doing. The line should be-3 but Square money has pushed the line to -4 giving the value better an excellent Home Dog play on Miami +4.
Dallas was already an early season Public favorite. Their manhandling of the New York Giants in week 1 only added fuel to fire. Watching the highlights and listening to the media machine, you’d hear nothing but “America’s Team” is back.
The sportsbook I spoke with took a massive amount of Square money on Dallas as soon as they posted a line. They quickly retreated to -3.5, with a lot of Square sportsbooks shading the line to -4. Most of the linemen I spoke with believed they could have posted -6 or even -7 and still received a lot of Dallas action.
Currently, an amazing 90%-94% of the bets are coming in on Dallas. The Public is betting this game like they know the scores. Unfortunately, I’m still waiting for my advance copy of Monday’s sports section. We’re taking the +4 value on a Home Dog the Public money has given us.
Miami +4
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Indy looked great against New Orleans in week 1. Indy will continue to be a huge Public team until someone finds a game plan to beat them. We like the Tennessee Titans for the same reasons we’re taking the Miami Dolphins.
• Public overwhelmingly on Indy (85%-90%)
• Home dog (+7.5)
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money (-7 to -7.5)
The early Public action has made Tennessee a tremendous Home Dog value getting +7.5. Tennessee picked up right where they left off last season. They showed a lot of grit going into Jacksonville and coming out with a win. Early Public money has pushed the line from -7 to -7.5 at a lot Square sportsbook most notably Bodog.com. We’re taking Tennessee +7.5 and looking for our Home Dogs to start barking!
Tennessee +7.5 (NewBodog.com)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
The question is not “how good is Cincy” but rather “how bad is Cleveland?” Frequent readers of this column know that every week you need bad teams to do good things. It sounds easy enough but try putting your money where your mouth is. Who in their right mind would put money on Cleveland this week…no matter what line they put on the game? But it is this psychological bias that makes Cleveland an attractive play. It’s about identifying value. Over the course of an entire season, continually getting an extra half point such as +7 instead of +6.5 – will add an extra few points to your winning percentage. This can be the difference between long-term winning and losing.
I’m taking Cleveland +7 at home for the exact reason everyone is betting against them.
Cleveland +7
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 2.
Games to Watch (0-3)
Miami +4
Tennessee +7.5
Cleveland +7
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Brandon Lang
SUNDAY
30 DIME
STEELERS
5 DIME
Packers
Titans
Vikings
Free Pick - Bears - (For analysis see Daily video)
analysis by 10 am eastern sunday
ROCKETMAN SPORTS
Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units
MLB
Atlanta @ Washington 1:35 PM EST
Play On: 1* Atlanta -130 (Hudson/Hill) Listed
Washington is 9-35 this year when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Washington is 5-21 this year at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Atlanta is scoring 5.5 runs per game on the road this year. Atlanta bullpen has a 3.63 ERA overall this year and a 3.60 ERA on the road this season. Washington is scoring only 4 runs per game overall, 3.8 runs per game at home and 3.8 runs per game against right handed starters. Tim Hudson is 7-3 with a 3.37 ERA on the road this year. Hudson is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA vs Washington since 1997. We'll play Atlanta for 1 unit today!
Pittsburgh @ Houston 2:05 PM EST
Play On: 5* Pittsburgh +105 (Maholm/Backe) Listed
Houston is 2-10 this year when playing in September. Houston is only batting .241 against left handed starters this year. Paul Maholm is 2-0 his last 3 starts. Brandon Backe has a 7.20 ERA at home this year. Pittsburgh is 10-3 overall vs Houston this year including 6-1 at Houston. We'll play Pittsburgh for 5 units today!
NASCAR
#48 Jimmie Johnson vs #20 Tony Stewart 2:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #20 Tony Stewart -110
Tony Stewart has two wins, nine Top 5 finishes and ten Top 10 finishes in his 19 races in New Hampshire. Tony finished 2nd in this race last year while Jimmie Johnson finished 39th out of 43 drivers. Tony Stewart is the hottest driver the past 3 races with a 6.3 average finish and 2nd hottest over the past 10 races with an 8.8 average finish. We'll play Tony Stewart to finish ahead of Jimmie Johnson for 3 units today!
#17 Matt Kenseth vs #31 Jeff Burton 2:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* #31 Jeff Burton +100
Jeff Burton has four wins, seven Top 5 finishes and 12 Top 10 finishes in his 25 starts in New Hampshire. Jeff Burton has finished 7th the past 3 races in New Hampshire including this race last year. Matt Kenseth has never found victory lane at New Hampshire in Nextel Cup. We'll play Jeff Burton to finish ahead of Matt Kenseth for 3 units today!
NFL
Buffalo @ Pittsburgh 1:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* Pittsburgh -9 1/2
To start with, Buffalo will be without 3 defensive starters for this game. Pittsburgh is 66-41 ATS since 1992 and 12-4 ATS last 3 years as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points. Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU and ATS at home against Buffalo since 1992 and 7-2 ATS overall vs Buffalo since 1992. Pittsburgh offense blasted Cleveland last week winning 34-7 and we see much of the same this week. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS last 7 meetings with Buffalo including 4-0 ATS last 4 at home. We'll play Pittsburgh for 3 units today!
NY Jets @ Baltimore 4:15 PM EST
Play On: 4* Baltimore -10
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS last 3 years at home when the total is 32 1/2 to 35 points. NY Jets got blown out 38-14 last week and we see much of the same this week. Probably not as many points scored but all the points will be scored by Baltimore. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS vs NY Jets since 1992. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS last 6 meetings overall with NY Jets including 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings at home. Baltimore is 11-2 ATS off a straight up loss against an opponent off a straight up loss. Baltimore is 13-3 ATS as home favorites in September. Brian Billick is 13-2 ATS at home vs opponent off a double digit straight up loss. NY Jets are 4-18 ATS when the over-under line is less than 35 points. We'll play Baltimore for 4 units today!
Thanks and good luck, Rocky
FAIRWAY JAY
NFL
206 3.5* Tennessee Titans +7
212 3* NY Giants/Packers 'over' 38
212 2,5* NY Giants -2
213 2.5* Atlanta Falcons +10
220 3* Dolphins/Cowboys 'over' 40.5
222 3* Arizona Cardinals +3
231 3* Washington Redskins +7 (Mon)
COMPUTER PLAYS
1:00 p.m. Houston Texans + 6½
1:00 p.m. Cincinnati Bengals - 6½
1:00 p.m. Jacksonville Jaguars - 10 * * *
1:00 p.m. Green Bay Packers + 1½
1:00 p.m. Pittsburgh Steelers - 9½
1:00 p.m. St. Louis Rams - 3
1:00 p.m. Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3½
1:00 p.m. Indianapolis Colts - 7
4:05 p.m. Arizona Cardinals + 3
4:05 p.m. Detroit Lions - 3
4:05 p.m. Miami Dolphins + 3½
4:15 p.m. Baltimore Ravens - 10
4:15 p.m. Chicago Bears - 12
4:15 p.m. Oakland Raiders + 10
8:15 p.m. New England Patriots - 3½
POWER SWEEP NEWSLETTER
PRO SELECTIONS
4* Carolina (over Houston)
3* Detroit (over Minnesota)
2* Chicago (over Kansas City)
2* Oakland (over Denver)
OVER/UNDERS
3* Bills/Steelers Under 37
3* Packers/Giants under 39
3* Chiefs/Bears under 35.5
2* Falcons/Jags over 34.5
2* 49rs/Rams over 43
NFL POWER RATINGS PLAY
None This Week.
SYSTEM SECTION :
"Chopping Wood"
Play on any team that beat their Wk. 1 foe by 20 or more.
2001-2006 : 13-1-1 93%
This Weeks Play : Indianapolis
Chuck Franklin Sunday Plays:
2500♦ CHICAGO BEARS
1500♦ CAROLINA
1500♦ DETROIT
1500♦ SAN DIEGO
The Professional Gambler -
NFL:
STEELERS -10.0 +100 over Bills
Bills at Steelers OVER 37.5 -112
TITANS +7.0 -106 over Colts
GIANTS -1.0 -110 over Packers
Packers at Giants OVER 37.5 -107
Falcons at Jaguars OVER 34.5 -101
COWBOYS -3.5 -107 at Dolphins
RAVENS -10.0 +102 over Jets
Jets at Ravens OVER 33.5 -104
BRONCOS -10.0 -101 over Raiders
MLB:
NATIONALS +1.5 -141 (OR +117) over Braves (Hill-Hudson)
TIGERS +107 at Twins (Jurrjens-Baker)
ATHLETICS -118 over Rangers (Padilla-Dinardo)
REDSOX -104 over Yankees (Schilling-Clemens)
Confidential Kick Off
WASHINGTON over Philadelphia
Under 42 - Minnesota-Detroit
Over 44 - Seattle-Arizona
Pointwise Sports -
Rating 1-5 1 being best plays
NEW YORK GIANTS over Green Bay
RATING: 2
CHICAGO over Kansas City
RATING: 3
SAN FRANCISCO over St Louis
RATING: 4
TENNESSEE over Indianapolis
RATING: 4
CINCINNATI over Cleveland
RATING: 5
JB Sports
Rams
tim trushel
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
cleve +7
tenn +7
ov34.5 jack - atl
miami +3.5
ariz +3
oak +10
John Ryan
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Cleveland Browns plus the points over Cincinnati I had a 5* MONSTER winner on the Bengals Monday night in their huge win over Baltimore. Although it is just week 2, this game has letdown written all over it and Bengals working on a short week too. Bengals defense was quite impressive in containing Ravens offense and forcing 6 turnovers. They will be the benefactor of 6 turnovers this week. Cleveland must and will get a solid running game led by Lewis. Bengals will crowd the LOS and force Browns to pass and that is where the big play opportunities reside. You will see them lineup TE Winslow in the slot instead of the traditional formation. This will enable him to use his athleticism off the snap and prevents LB from banging him on the snap. Back to the running game. Lewis will be running behind a strong blocking FB in Vickers. Lewis is a straight ahead runner and running simple yet powerful straight ahead running plays will wear down the Bengals defense. These types of running plays also serve to eliminate the speed and quickness of the Bengals defense. Misdirection and zone running plays take too long to develop against a quick and aggressive defense like the Bengals. So, yes, I think the Browns running game will be a big success. AiS shows a 75% probability that Browns will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 85% probability that Browns will score 22 to 28 points and note that Browns are 32-4 ATS when they score within this range. Take the Browns.
Big Al Mcmordie
At 2:10pm our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Minnesota Twins. The Tigers are Red Sox fans this weekend as Boston and New York play in a pivotal AL East series and Detroit remains 5.5 games behind Cleveland and unlikely to catch the Indians and therefore must rely on their chances to get the AL Wild Card nod over the Yankees. Despite a very disappointing season, the Tigers are hanging in there and doing their part as they've now won eight of their last ten games. They probably wish they could play the rest of the season against the Twins in the Metrodome as after Saturday's victory the Tigers are 7-1 there this season. With all that's gone wrong this season for Detroit, there have been some very bright spots as well, like the emergence of today's starter, a 21 year-old righthander from Curacau named Jair Jurrjens who has a 3.15 ERA and has only give up 11 hits in 20 innings pitched since joining the team in mid-August. Which version of righthanded starter Scott Baker will show up tonight for the Twins? The one who pitched a complete game one-hitter at home against the Royals on August 31, or the one who has given up six earned runs and 21 hits in less than 11 innings in his two starts since? I'm betting it will be the latter version as Baker has already faced Detroit twice this season and the Twins have lost both of those. Take the Tigers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie