Dr Bob
3 Star Selection
Tampa Bay 28 DETROIT (-2.5) 17
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
Detroit may be 3-2, but the Lions are being out-scored by an average of 7.6 points per game and out-gained by an average of 5.4 yards per play to 5.6 yppl. The Lions have only faced one team that currently has a winning record and they lost that game to the 3-2 Redskins by a count of 3-34. Tampa Bay is 4-2 and they’ve out-scored their opponents by 3.5 points per game while out-gaining them 5.8 yppl to 4.7 yppl. After compensating for strength of opponent and only using offensive plays in which the starting quarterback was in the game, the Buccaneers rate at 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.6 yppl better than average on defense while the Lions are 0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense. Not only is Tampa Bay a bit better offensively and much, much better defensively, but they are also better on special teams and are much less likely to turn the ball over – Tampa’s Garcia has not thrown an interception this year and has a career interception rate of 2.3% while Detroit’s Kitna has thrown 6 picks this year and has a career rate of 3.7%. My math model favors the Bucs by 11 points and I’ll take Tampa Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 4-Stars at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better)..
3 Star Selection
MIAMI 19 New England (-16.5) 26
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
More than a few clients were quick to tell me that I shouldn’t be betting against a “special” team like the Patriots after I suffered my only loss of the week with Dallas +5 ½ points. The fact that everyone now thinks that New England is even more special will make it tough for the oddsmakers to get anyone to bet against the Pats. They certainly tried to create some action on Miami in this game by opening the line at New England -13 ½ and -14 points but the line quickly moved to Patriots by 16 ½ points. More interesting is that almost 75% of the bets pouring in at a line of 16 ½ points are on New England. The fact that masses don’t want to bet against the Patriots makes them an overrated team because the oddsmakers are forced to make the line higher than it should be in hopes of splitting the action. That is certainly the case here as my math model favors the Patriots by 14 ½ points, which is pretty close to where the game opened. Some people looking for an excuse to bet on New England used the trade of Dolphins’ WR Chris Chambers to San Diego as the trigger, but Miami may actually be better without Chambers considering that their quarterbacks have combined to average 6.7 yards per pass attempt this year while they’ve averaged only 6.3 ypa on the 66 balls they’ve thrown to Chambers, which is much lower than the 7.7 ypa that an average starting wide receiver averages. The other 3 Dolphins’ wide receivers combine to average 6.9 ypa, so losing Chambers does not make Miami a worse team. Having Cleo Lemon at quarterback does make the Dolphins worse, but I factored that in and only project Miami to average 4.2 yards per pass play in this game (yet I still show value on Miami). The reason for this play is not all about the line value, but rather the strong situations favoring Miami. If everyone thinks that New England is going to crush winless Miami don’t you think the Patriots feel that way too? It’s very hard for good teams to get up for games against really bad teams, especially after playing such an emotionally charged game the previous week. Teams with winning records are just 62-103-3 ATS as road favorites of 5 points or more against a team with a win percentage of less than .250 that is on a losing streak of 2 games or more, and New England applies to a 9-48-1 ATS subset of that situation. Road favorites of 10 points or more are only 17-39-2 ATS if they have a winning percentage greater than .750 and are coming off a win (surely you remember Dallas barely beating Buffalo as a 10 ½ point road favorite a couple of Monday nights ago). Winless teams are 39-19-2 ATS as home underdogs or more than 7 points and Miami applies to another 50-14-1 ATS big home underdog situation. What about great teams like New England that continue to cover the spread week after week? Teams with a win percentage of .800 or higher that have covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are only 21-41-1 ATS since 1980, so the fact that the Patriots have covered the spread in all 6 of their games is actually a reason to bet against them. That obviously didn’t work last week, but the 21 teams that were in that situation and covered the spread were just 5-15 ATS trying to cover in their next game – so I’m going to go against the Patriots again because everyone else is afraid to and that has created good value. By the way, there have been 8 teams since 1980 that covered the spread in each of their first 6 games. Not only are those teams 0-8 ATS in game 7, but they are also 0-8 straight up! That includes the “special” 1984 49ers and the “special” 1999 Rams, who went on to win Super Bowl titles, and two other teams that made it to the Super Bowl (Cincy in ’88 and San Diego in ’94). I don’t think the Patriots are going to lose this game, but they probably won’t be at their best and my math model still has Miami covering even if both teams play at their normal level. I’ll take Miami in a 3- Star Best Bet at +16 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +14 points.
2 Star Selection
**Atlanta 20 NEW ORLEANS (-8.5) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
New Orleans wins a game against a mediocre Seattle team and now everyone thinks they’re back to being the team they were last year? How ridiculous. The Saints certainly have potential to be better offensively but their defense is simply horrible and will probably not get better. New Orleans has allowed 6.2 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl to an average team and they were 0.6 yppl worse than average in last week’s win (Seattle gained 6.2 yppl and would average 5.6 yppl at home against an average defensive team). Atlanta has had their problems offensively at times this season and they rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but the offense should get better with Byron Leftwich taking over for Joey Harrington at quarterback and the Falcons have proven that they can move the ball against bad defensive teams – averaging 6.0 yppl and 23 points against Carolina and Houston – who aren’t nearly as bad defensively as the Saints. New Orleans has been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl) while the Falcons are 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively this year, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense. Atlanta actually has an advantage on both sides of the ball over the Saints and they’re better on special teams too. My math model favors Atlanta by 1 ½ points, but I’ll give Drew Brees the benefit of the doubt and assume that he’ll start playing at his Pro Bowl level instead of being 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average that he’s been so far this year. Since his breakout season in 2004 Brees has averaged 6.8 yards per pass play, but my math model still only favors the Saints by 4 ½ points if I plug those numbers in for the Saints’ pass attack – so there is still enough value to favoring Atlanta to make them a profitable play. Brees is unlikely to play at his former level because he’s always had a very good rushing attack to keep teams from focusing on stopping the pass (he has LaDainian Tomlinson at San Diego and Deuce McAllister last year), but the loss of McAllister has left the Saints without a rushing threat as Reggie Bush averaged only 3.6 ypr last year and just 3.5 ypr so far this year. The Saints are 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS but they remain vastly overrated and I’ll take Atlanta in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.
2 Star Selection
**NY Jets 28 CINCINNATI (-6.5) 26
01:05 PM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
Cincinnati is 1-4 and their only win, a 27-20 opening day victory over Baltimore, was the product of 6 Baltimore turnovers (4 fumbles). The Bengals are actually a little better than their record, but teams with bad defenses usually make for poor favorites and Cincy is already 0-2 ATS this season laying 3 points or more – losing straight up to Cleveland the Kansas City. The Jets have also won only 1 game and I’m certainly not going to sign their praises, but New York applies to a very strong 46-8-1 ATS subset of a 124-47-3 ATS situation while the Bengals apply to a negative 31-89-1 ATS angle that is based on their bad defense. My math model favors Cincinnati by 6 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take the New York Jets in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more (-115 odds or better).
2 Star Selection
**St. Louis 19 SEATTLE (-8.5) 20
01:15 PM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
I’m not going to waste time breaking down these teams, as this game is not about match- ups. This Best Bet is about a very negative 0-31 ATS subset of a 3-55-1 ATS situation that applies to Seattle. I discovered this situation in 2000 when the record was 36-2-1 playing against the home favorite and it is 19-1 ATS for me since then. That is the strongest NFL situation that I have and I made the mistake of passing on it in week 5 when it applied against Denver in their game with San Diego. The Chargers had been playing horribly in their first 4 games but beat up on Denver 41-3 as a small dog with that situation favoring them. I passed that game because my math model strongly favored the Broncos. That is not the case here, as my math favors Seattle by 9 ½ points, which is pretty close to the line. The Rams get a healthy Marc Bulger back at quarterback this week, which could help their offense a bit given that he was playing hurt early in the season and Seattle’s pass attack isn’t as good without Deion Branch, who will miss his second straight week. The Seahawks averaged 6.9 yards per pass play without Branch last week, but they were facing a horrible Saints’ secondary that would allow 8.0 yppp on the road to an average team. Don’t be afraid to take the winless Rams, as winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 48-16-3 ATS as road underdogs of more than 6 points against teams with a win percentage of less than .666. I’ll take St. Louis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more.
2 Star Selection
**PHILADELPHIA (-5.0) 31 Chicago 18
01:15 PM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
People appear to still be clinging to the belief that the Bears are a good team and my math model continues to pick against them. The Bears are now 2-4 straight up and 1-5 ATS and they weren’t even impressive in their two wins, as they were out-gained 3.8 yppl to 4.7 yppl by Kansas City and 4.9 yppl to 7.2 yppl by Green Bay (the Packers gave that game to them with 5 turnovers). The Bears’ offense is certainly better with Brian Griese at quarterback, but Griese has still been below average this season (6.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback) and the rushing attack is bad too (3.3 ypr against teams that would allow 3.8 ypr). Problems exist with the normally stout Bears’ defense too, as injuries to Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher has decimated the secondary. In 4 games without Brown and Vasher the Bears have allowed 7.4 yppp (to teams that would average 6.6 yppp against an average team) and a horrendous 6.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. The only thing keeping Chicago close to respectable is return specialist Devon Hester. Philadelphia without a couple of star defensive backs too, as CB Sheppard has missed 4 games and FS Dawkins has missed the last 3 (both are questionable for this game). However, Philly has been average defensively in 4 games since Sheppard went down, allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The Eagles haven’t played their best offensively this year, but they are still 0.3 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl) and should thrive against a now bad Bears’ defense. After making the adjustments for Griese, and the losses on defense for both teams, my math favors Philly by 13 points in a high scoring game. I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less and I’ll also consider the OVER a Strong Opinion at 43 points or less.
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 19 Baltimore (-3.0) 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 21-Oct-07
Baltimore may be 4-2 but the Ravens are not a good team. Baltimore has played the easiest schedule in the NFL, as not one of their 6 opponents is a better than average team. Cleveland is actually the best team that the Ravens have faced and they lost that game 13- 27. Baltimore has averaged only 4.8 yards per play on offense despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team and they’ve been 1.2 yppl worse than average with Kyle Boller at quarterback, including averaging just 3.9 yppl last week against a bad Rams’ defense. The Ravens’ defense is not as good as most people think, as that unit has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The defense was worse than average in 3 games with starting CB Samari Rolle out and it will probably be worse than average for the next 3 weeks with the other starting CB Chris McAlister sidelined. Buffalo is not a good team either, but they’re good enough to win this game at home. The Bills have been 0.7 yards per play worse than average offensively in 3 games with rookie Trent Edwards at quarterback and Buffalo is 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively for the season. Overall, these teams are pretty close from the line of scrimmage with Boller at quarterback and McAlister out for Baltimore and my math model favors the Bills by 1 ½ points in this game. There are situations going against both teams, but there are stronger situations going against the Ravens and I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
JACKSONVILLE 26 Indianapolis (-3.0) 24
05:30 PM Pacific, 22-Oct-07
I used the Jaguars as a 4-Star Best Bet at home against the Colts last season (a 44-17 win as a 1 point dog) and the Jags are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Indy. Coach Jack Del Rio and his defensive staff have apparently figured out how to contain the Peyton manning and the Colts’ explosive offense, as they’ve held Indy to an average of just 18.5 points in 4 games the last 2 seasons. My math model favors the Colts by 4 ½ points in this game, but Jacksonville applies to a 102-45-4 ATS Monday night situation in addition to a 61-19-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator and a 211-114-6 ATS indicator. I also find it interesting that underdogs are 27-5-1 ATS since 1980 when two teams on 4 games or more winning streaks meet each other, including 11-0-1 ATS in divisional games and 9-1 ATS for home dogs (only loss was Dallas last week). The technical analysis is certainly strong enough to make the Jaguars a decent play despite the slightly negative line value. I’ll consider Jacksonville a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more and I’d take the Jaguars in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more.
Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Minnesota at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
These defenses are both two good to get lit up like they did last week. There has been an average of just 38 point scored in Minnesota games this week and I think that they will play their safeties deep and try to eliminate the big play from the Cowboys passing game. I think Dallas’ offense is going to come down to earth a bit and if this is a blowout I don’t see Minnesota topping 14-17 points. The ‘under’ is 41-17-3 in Dallas’ last 61 games against a team with a losing record and the ‘under’ is 21-6 following a Minnesota win.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Atlanta (+8) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
The Falcons are about one or two games away from mailing this season in – but they aren’t there yet. Atlanta is 18-2 ATS as a road dog in the Superdome. New Orleans is off its first win of the year and now they’re supposed to cover more than a touchdown? I don’t think so. The Falcons have played a brutal schedule but have played hard. I will say that I think it’s a huge mistake to start Byron Leftwich and this play would be doubled – it was going to be my GOTW – if Joey Harrington were under center. In fact, I really hate the move to Leftwich. But 18-2 ATS is a trend I’m going to ride regardless of who’s under center.
2-Unit Play. Take St. Louis (+8.5) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
You gotta be scared of 0-6 teams. They’re going to win one of these times, and why not against a division rival? Mark Bulger should give the Rams a little boost, and I’m not sure I trust the Seahawks to cover a huge spread. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in this series, the Rams are 5-2 ATS in the L7, and the Rams are 4-1 ATS in Seattle. Only two of the last nine games in this series have been decided by more than a touchdown, with those nine games decided by an average of 6.1 points per game.
2-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (+9.5) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
The Cowboys have only played three good quarters in their last three games. They were sluggish against St. Louis and lucky against Buffalo before getting throttled by New England. This is a potential letdown spot after that huge Patriots game and I think that the Vikings have just enough defense to keep this one close. I expect a low-scoring contest so having this many points is a huge advantage.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTION
2-Unit Play. Take #434 Jacksonville (+3.5) over Indianapolis (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 21)
Note: If this number has not yet hit 3.5 at your book just wait – it will. In fact, I will be stunned if it isn’t at 4.0 or 4.5 by kickoff.
The Jaguars have had a lot of success against the Colts over the past five years and are 4-1 ATS against them in their last five meetings in Jacksonville. Yes, it concerns me that the Colts are coming out of a bye. But the Jags have been strong on MNF and this game is like their Super Bowl. i said at the start of the season that Jacksonville would win the division. If that's the case, they have to win this game.
Doc's Sports NFL
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4* Buffalo +3
3* Miani +17.5
3* Ind/Jax Under 44.5
ace-ace / allan eastman
23 PHI -5.5
23 PIT-3.5
5 NYG UNDER 39.5
5 NYJ +6.5
5 MIN +9.5
3TEAM TEASER 10 POINTS
3 MIN+19.5 / NYJ+16.5 / ATL+18.5
Vegas Hotsheet - NY Giants -9
Burns NFL
Ben Burns' Divisional Game of the Year *EARLY KICK
Two weeks ago, Ben Burns released his 2007 NFC North Game of the Year and the Bears WON OUTRIGHT at Lambeau. Last week, Ben released his 2007 NFL BLOWOUT Game of the Year and the Ravens ROUTED the Rams.
Texans are AFC South Game of the Year.
**BIG TOTAL ALERT** Burns' NFC Total of the Year!
On November 19, 2006, Ben Burns released his 2006 NFC Total of the Year, an EASY WINNER on Seattle to finish below the total. THE TIME HAS COME for this "NFL Totals Grandmaster" to release the 2007 version. Ben's NFL Totals are TRULY LEGENDARY & he CASHED his only one last week.
Min/Dal Under is NFC Total of the Year.
Burns Personal Favorite (ROUT!)
When the situation calls for it, like Baltimore last week, Ben Burns doesn't mind "laying a few points." The situation calls for it Sunday afternoon, as Ben has isolated a game which has "SEVERE BLOWOUT" written all over it. This MONSTER has received "Personal Favorite Status." These HIGHLY COVETED PLAYS are 1-0-1 this season & 14-7 the L21!
Oakland is Personal Favorite.
Ben Burns' 3-Game EXECUTIVE REPORT (EARLY KICK!)
Ben Burns has gone a SWEET 9-3 with his NFL selections the past two Sundays. That includes a SIZZLING 5-1 (83%) RECORD with the individual plays in his two "Executive Reports."
Dolphins
Broncos
KC/Oak Under
fezzik hilton plays (12th place)
atl +8
MIA +16
HOU +2.5
PHI -5
Stl +8.5
Redsheet
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Rating:88 Buffalo 17 Baltimore 16
Rating:87 Chicago,Denver,Jax
Pointwise Newsletter Key Releases
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Rating:2 New England 38 Miami 13
Rating:3 Atlanta 18 New Orleans 19
Rating:4 Denver 22 Pittsburgh 20
Rating:5 Buffalo 17 Baltimore 16
POINTWISE PHONE SERVICE
3 *Buffalo
3* Jacksonville
3* Washington
3* New England
2* Denver
2* Kansas City
NFL Chicks clients = -32.00 units (43-44)
NFL Chicks fade = -8.90 units (44-43)
Sunday:
6 units ~ 405 Arizona +8
1 unit ~ 405 Arizona ML +320
6 units ~ 408 New Orleans -8
1 unit ~ 408 New Orleans ML -400
3 units ~ 411 Minnesota +9
1 unit ~ 411 Minnesota ML +350
1 unit ~ 426 Philadelphia -5.5
1 unit ~ 426 Philadelphia ML -255
Logical Approach Newsletter
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: DALLAS - 9 ½ over Minnesota - Despite losing by 21 Dallas played New England even for nearly 3 quarters and has nothing to be ashamed of in defeat. The Vikings got a huge game from rookie RB Peterson in edging past Chicago, nearly blowing a double digit lead. Dallas will be focused with a Bye next week and then a pair of Divisional road games. The Vikes are a one dimensional running team and Dallas will force Minny to pass. The defense has not yielded more than 81 yards rushing since week one. The offense is as explosive as any in the league with a dual threat running game. Minny has defended the run extremely well (66 ypg, # 2) but this will be by far the best balanced offense that defense will have seen thus far. Dallas also plays excellent run defense (80 ypg, # 6). Dallas wins handily 37-20.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
DETROIT - 2 over Tampa Bay - Detroit is off a Bye and head coach Marinelli gets to go up against his former employer. The extra week of preparation should greatly benefit the Lions who have won both home games this season. Tampa Bay has played better than expected to date but still has major concerns on offense, especially at RB (they just acquired Bennett from KC). This is a classic matchup of offense vs defense and while defense usually prevails Detroit's familiarity with Tampa's personnel and the continued struggles of the Tampa offense suggest the Lions should outscore the Buccs. The Lions have played well at home and despite their below average defense they do lead the league in takeaways (2.8 per game). Detroit wins 27-17.
Kansas City + 3 over OAKLAND - The Chiefs continue to improve week by week with RB Johnson finally scoring his first TD of the season in last week''s home win over Cincinnati. Oakland was held to season lows in points and rushing yards in last week's loss at San Diego, the team KC had defeated on the road a week earlier. The Chiefs have won 8 straight in the series and face a Raider defense that is down quite a bit from last season. 3 of their 5 foes have run for more than 140 yards and the KC running game, slow to start the season following Johnson's holdout, is on the verge of breaking out. Kansas City wins 20-17.
SEATTLE - 9 over St Louis - Key injuries to the Rams at the offensive skill positions of QB, RB and WR continue to plague the Rams and limit their offensive effectiveness. Even earlier this season at full health the offense struggled as a result of offensive line issues. The situation favors Seattle off of back to back losses and a Bye next week. They are the healthier team and have the better defense. Were Seattle off a win over New Orleans the situation would strongly favor the Rams, who even if Bulger, Jackson and/or Holt return will not have them at 100 percent. But the back to back losses change everything and assure a focused effort from the host, especially after struggling to win both games last season, each by 2 points.. Seattle wins 27-13.
Scott Spreitzer
TKO NFL GOY
Houston Texans
PPP
(5*) Pittsburgh
(3*) St. Louis
(3*) MIAMI (+17)
King Totals
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Bears/Eagles over 41.5
Chiefs/Raiders under 38
Vikings/Cowboys under 46.5