Selective Sports
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Eagles/Vikings Over 37.5 for 7 units
Saints/49ers Over 40 for 7 units
DR. BOB
CHICAGO (-5.0) 28 Detroit 24
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-28 - Stats Matchup
2-Star Best Bet Over 45 points or less
I don’t really like either side in this game, as my math model favors Chicago by 4 points and there are insignificant situations favoring both sides, but the OVER looks like a good bet. Chicago’s defense is far from the dominating group they had last season, as injuries to defensive backs Mike Brown and Nathan Vasher and changes along the defensive line have led to a leaky defense that has allowed an average of 6.1 yards per play and 25.2 points in 6 games since Brown was injured (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). Detroit’s offense is 0.4 yppl better than average with Jon Kitna under center and the Lions have averaged 23.3 points per game despite facing teams that have combined to allow an average of just 18.9 points per game on defense. Chicago’s offense was a problem early in the season with Rex Grossman at quarterback but the Bears have averaged 26.0 points per game and are only 0.2 yppl worse than average in Brian Griese’s 4 starts. Chicago’s offense should move at a better than average clip in this game given that the Lions have given up 5.6 yppl and 28.5 points per game this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl and 19.5 points against an average defense). Chicago also routinely gets points from their great special teams and my math model projects 54 ½ points in this game. I haven’t released too many over/under Best Bets but I’ve been using my math model since 1999 and the Over has been a 62% winner when my math model projects a difference from the total of 6 points or more (5.8 actually) and the total is less than 48 points (the record is now 86-53-3, including 7-1 Over this season). Chicago has also gone 17-8-1 Over the last two seasons, including 11-2 Over at home and 16-4-1 Over as a favorite or pick. I’ll go Over 45 points or less in a 2-Star Best Bet.
DR. BOB
SAN DIEGO (-10.0) 24 Houston 23
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-28 - Stats Matchup
Best Bet on Houston at +7 1/2 or more
San Diego has played two good games in a row, but that hardly means that they’re suddenly back to being the dominant team that they were last season. The Chargers are good offensively, rating at 0.4 yards per play better than average, but their defense has allowed 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The Texans have an offense that has averaged 5.7 yppl this season (to teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and it doesn’t matter whether Matt Schaub or backup Sage Rosenfels starts since Rosenfels has a lifetime 7.0 yards per pass play average and has averaged 7.9 yppp the last two weeks against Jacksonville and Tennessee. Rosenfels led the Texans to 28 4th quarter points in their near upset of the Titans last week. The Texans haven’t been as good throwing the ball in 5 games without star WR Andre Johnson and I rate their attack at 0.2 yppl better than average without Johnson in the lineup. Houston’s defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average but the Texans are an average team overall thanks to their good special teams. San Diego isn’t much better than average and my math model favors the Chargers by just 4 ½ points if this game is being played in San Diego and by 1 ½ points if the game is moved to Arizona due to the firestorms in San Diego. The math would favor the Chargers by only 8 points even if they play defensively at the high level that they played on that side of the ball last year, so there is line value favoring Houston even if you assume that the Chargers are back to being the Chargers of last year (which I doubt they are). The Chargers’ two recent wins actually sets them up in a negative 43-100-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. It’s also not a stretch to think the Chargers were more than a little distracted this week with half the team being forced to evacuate their homes and then practice in Arizona. Houston has always been an up and down team but they’re predictable that way as the Texans are just 8-18 ATS lifetime after a victory and 22-9-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses (21-7-1 ATS as an underdog), so I expect them to bounce-back from consecutive losses with a good effort this week. The line value alone makes Houston a good play here and I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog of 10 points or more and for 2-Stars as an underdog from 9 ½ to 7 ½ points.
If this game is moved to Arizona then the situations against San Diego wouldn’t technically apply since it would not be a true home game, but Houston would still be a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 ½ points or more.
DR. BOB
SAN FRANCISCO 20 New Orleans (-2.5) 16
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-28 - Stats Matchup
As I said last week, the Saints aren’t suddenly a good team because they finally won a game or two. The Saints were out-gained 5.5 yards per play to 6.2 yppl in their win over Seattle and they didn’t cover last week in their win over the Falcons. New Orleans is still struggling on offense (just 4.8 yppl for the season against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and their defense has been horrible this season – allowing 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. The Saints defense has actually gotten better with CB Jason David sidelined the last 3 weeks, as David was beaten with regularity in the 3 games that he played. New Orleans is only 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively with their current lineup, so they have an edge over a struggling 49ers’ offense that rates at 0.9 yppl worse than average with Alex Smith behind center (he’s back from his injured shoulder this week). The 49ers have been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively this season and these teams are pretty close from the line of scrimmage while the 49ers have a significant edge in special teams. My math model favors the 49ers by 3 ½ points at home and the Niners apply to a solid 190-103-6 ATS statistical profile indicator while the Saints apply to a negative 23-53-3 ATS road letdown situation. I’ll consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take the 49ers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 (-120 or better odds).
Ferringo
NFL SELECTIONS
4.5-Unit Play. Take #215 Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
Note: This was our Gridiron Game of the Week until we altered the rating on the New Mexico game. That is college play is our official GOTW.
The Steelers have dominated the Bengals recently, posting a 6-0 ATS mark against their rivals in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh is 12-6 ATS coming off a SU loss and I think they’re smarting from their tough one in Denver last week. The Bengals can’t tackle. They can’t defend. And they’re going to be without Rudi Johnson and tackle Willie Anderson. I think the Steelers will outmuscle the Bungles yet again and this one will be decided by double-digits.
4-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #209 New York Giants (-3) over Miami AND Take #212 Tennessee (-0.5) over Oakland
The Dolphins have completely mailed it in and will now be without Zach Thomas, Ronnie Brown, and Reynaldo Hill. The Giants should have their way with the Miami secondary and New York’s blitz-happy defense should overwhelm Cleo Lemon. I don’t mind laying the Giants (-9.5) if you’re not into the teasers. As for Tennessee, the Raiders have covered the spread in only 31 percent of their last 70 games overall. They are 8-17 ATS against a team with a winning record and they are 15-37 ATS against the AFC. Tennessee’s rushing attack should decimate the league’s worst rush defense, and getting Vince Young back should be a boon to this team all around.
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 37.0 Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
The ‘over’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series and is 10-3 in New York’s last 13 divisional games. Over their past 10 meetings there have been an average of 39.2 points scored and the ‘over’ is 8-3 ATS in meetings played before Week 10. These two teams have two of the five worst defenses in the league and surrender a combined 49.4 points per game. There is a little wind we’ll have to deal with in this one, but I don’t see it hampering either offense. Look for another low-scoring first half before the fireworks come out in the second half.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 37.5 Philadelphia at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
These teams have combined to go ‘under’ in 9 of their 12 games, with each posting an absurd, anomaly game (Philly’s 56-21 vs. Detroit and Minny’s 34-31 vs. Chicago). Throw out those two contests and these teams are 90 percent ‘under’, with Minnesota averaging 32.8 combined points in those five games and Philadelphia just 28.0 in its other five games. These are two of the best rush defenses in the league and two of the worst red-zone offenses in the league. We’re above a key number and we’ll be looking for another dogfight.
2-Unit Play. Take #206 Chicago (-5) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
1-Unit Play. First Half: Take #206 Chicago (-3) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 28)
The Bears are 3-1 ATS against the Lions in Soldiers Field and Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games on grass. The Lions got maimed by both Philadelphia and Washington in road games this year and I think their woes continue. Remember, the Bears were beating Detroit 13-3 without six defensive starters and with Brian Griese making his first start. The Bears are much more confident and after not forcing a turnover in two straight games I think Chicago’s defense is due for a big day.
That's it for this week. Good luck.
MARC LAWRENCE PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB plays
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10/27/07 - CFB
DOWN RIGHT DEFENSIVE
PLAY ON any college home dog from Game Five out that allows 2.5 points
and allowed 31 < points in their last game.
ATS W-L Record SInce 1980: 16-0
Play On: Penn State
Rationale: Quality defensive home dogs bring a lot to the table,
especially when they have an offense that is capable of putting
points on the scoreboard.
10/28//07 - NFL
HEINOUS HOME DOG
PLAY ON any NFL home dog off back-to-back SUATS losses if they
started the season 0-4 and lost to a division foe in their last game.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 20-0
Play On: St. Louis Rams
Rationale: NFL home dogs bring out their best after they've become
thoroughly embarrassed. They also command value frm the oddsmakers
because of their plight
MARC LAWRENCE LATE PHONE NFL picks
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3* St.louis +3
3* Pittsburgh -3.5
3* Denver -3
VICTOR KING'S O/U TOTALS tipsheet NFL PICKS
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3* Raiders @ Titans Go over The Total
2* Browns @ Rams Go over The Total
2* Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati Go under The Total
Jim Feist
NFL GOY New England
Confidential Kick-Off
11 *NEW ENGLAND over Washington
Late Score Forecast:
*NEW ENGLAND 38 - Washington 10
(Sunday, October 28)
About the only thing the Patriots have done wrong this season (aside from that little deal about videotaping coaches) is to lose their focus while blowing out the Dolphins last week. After backup QB Matt Cassel tossed a sloppy interception that went for a Miami TD to make the score 42-21 with 10:30 left in the fourth quarter, HC Bill Belichick re-inserted QB Tom Brady (27 TDP in 7 games!), who quickly restored order with his sixth TDP of the game. Don't anticipate that type of passing ease vs. defensively-tougher Washington. However, that move speaks to Belichick's insistence that his players remain focused, even after their torrid 7-0 start (6-1 vs. the spread). While the Redskins will yield TDs more grudgingly than Miami, a struggling offense (160 total yards last week)--cursed by OL injuries--will cause their "D" to wear down, while the N.E. "D" will continually be spurred by the Pat fans.
Confidential Kick-Off
11 *NEW ENGLAND over Washington
Late Score Forecast:
*NEW ENGLAND 38 - Washington 10
(Sunday, October 28)
About the only thing the Patriots have done wrong this season (aside from that little deal about videotaping coaches) is to lose their focus while blowing out the Dolphins last week. After backup QB Matt Cassel tossed a sloppy interception that went for a Miami TD to make the score 42-21 with 10:30 left in the fourth quarter, HC Bill Belichick re-inserted QB Tom Brady (27 TDP in 7 games!), who quickly restored order with his sixth TDP of the game. Don't anticipate that type of passing ease vs. defensively-tougher Washington. However, that move speaks to Belichick's insistence that his players remain focused, even after their torrid 7-0 start (6-1 vs. the spread). While the Redskins will yield TDs more grudgingly than Miami, a struggling offense (160 total yards last week)--cursed by OL injuries--will cause their "D" to wear down, while the N.E. "D" will continually be spurred by the Pat fans.
Winning Points Newsletter
4* Chicago
3* Minnesota
2* Carolina
2* Oakland
North Coast Power Sweep:
4*.....Browns/Rams....Over
3*.....Minnesota
2*'s.....Tampa Bay....New England
Totals:
3*'s.....Phi/Min...Under.....Jac/T.Bay...Under
2*'s.....Det/Chi..Over......Pit/Cin...Over
Total POW....NO/SF.....Under
Randall The Handle
NEW ENGLAND –16½ over Washington PINNACLE
The best thing about this game is that the Redskins are 4-2 and therefore they’re definitely going to take some money. That’s good because the line isn’t going to see anything above 17 but the Patriots will bury this invader and expose then for what they really are, which is one of the dregs in this league. The Skins first three wins came against the 0-7 Dolphins in OT, the comatose Eagles and finally the defenseless Lions, who win on the road every leap year. Last week, against a battered Cardinal team the Redskins hung on for dear life but tried to give the game away five times. Washington had the ball twice in the last five minutes and all they needed to secure a win was one first down to kill most of the clock but they couldn’t get it. They went three and out both times. All their points last week came on Cardinals miscues. Oh, did we mention they nearly lost to a QB playing with one arm? The Skins offense is a big joke and they’re mostly comprised of high priced players that nobody else wanted. Now they’ll travel to New England on a Sunday night to play in prime time and when this one is over the Patriots will have embarrassed and exploited every inch of these Hogs. The Patriots obviously need no introduction but the Redskins do. Everyone needs to know that Washington is a horrible football team that will not come close to staying in this range; not against this team at this venue in this setting, no how no way. 47-3 final. Play: New England –16½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
CINCINNATI +4 over Pittsburgh SPORTSINTERACTION
Laying points on the road with the Steelers this year has been a bankroll killer so we’re not about to step out and play them here in a similar situation to last week. The whole world was on the Steelers as a 3½-point choice in Denver and the Steelers didn’t disappoint the books. Previously on the road they lost outright as a 6-point favorite in Arizona and their only road win came against Cleveland in week one in a game the Brownies were just not ready for. So, let’s have a look to see whom the Steelers have beaten besides the Browns. They beat Buffalo, San Fran and Seattle all in Pittsburgh and all I can say to that is excuse me while I crap my pants in awe of the Steelers. The bottom line is that the Steelers haven’t done jack and they do not warrant being a road favorite against the most talented offense they’ll see thus far. The betting public loves this Steeler team and we have no idea why. The Bengals are a dysfunctional bunch and that is something that has to be acknowledged. However, this rivalry is so important to them that they’ll put their selfishness aside and do whatever it takes to win. Carson Palmer is a great QB with great weapons and the Bengals woke up last week and had a huge second half over the Jets. Could that be the turning point for the Bengals? Ah, no because next week they’ll go back to being the Bengals but this week they’ll absolutely show up and give the way overrated Steelers plenty more to think about. Bengals outright but the four points are too many to pass up on. Play: Cincinnati +4 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
ST. LOUIS +1.48 over Cleveland PINNACLE
The Brownies are not close to being as bad as predicted before the season started. They have a tremendous offensive line and that has allowed their offense to be very proficient indeed. In fact, the Browns are ranked seventh in the league with an average of 354 yards of total offense per game. Not bad, not bad at all. However, wagering on the NFL is not about stats, it’s about picking the right spots to step in against a specific team or stepping in on a specific team at the right time and this is the week to step in on the Rams. You see, the Rams stock cannot get any lower. A very mediocre Seahawk club blew them out last week and they’ve been blown out five times in seven games. Nobody wants any part of these Rams because when you bet them you rip up your ticket. NFL teams do not get blown out every week, it just does not happen and now the Rams return home with their pride on the line and with the fans and media insulting them to the point of no return. Believe it or not, the Rams defense has not been that bad at all, it’s the offense that’s been killing them with turnovers and mistakes by the dozen. This is the week they’ll finally get Stephen Jackson back and Marc Bulger will have a week under his belt after an injury layoff. The Rams are sick of hearing it and they’ll absolutely show up here and play this game like it was the playoffs. We might not win this one but we’re definitely on the “right side” and will play it that way. Rams get their first win. Play: St. Louis +1.48 (Risking 2 units).
NFL Chicks clients = -43.85 units (45-51)
NFL Chicks fade = +0.25 units (51-45)
NFL 3-Pack:
NFL Game of the Year 11 units ~ 224 San Fran +2
2 units ~ San Fran moneyline +110
NFL Game of the Year 10 units ~ 206 Chicago -5.5
2 units ~ Chicago moneyline -250
NFL Game of the Year 9 units ~ 207 Indianapolis -6.5
2 units ~ Indianapolis moneyline -290
6 units ~ 209 NY Giants -9.5
3 units ~ 221 Jax +3.5
NCAAF Chicks clients = -40.55 units (25-36-1)
NCAAF Chicks fade = +22.05 units (36-24)