Bryan Leonard
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Oct 28, 2007 1:00PM
SPORT: National Football League Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 45 BoDog
REASON FOR PICK: Lions at Bears: Looks like a lot of points in Soldier Field. Chicago is averaging just 25 rushing attempts since Brian Griese took over and they have a 60-40 pass-run ratio for the season. Part of that is because they've been behind a lot because this defense is banged up, allowing 26 ppg at home. Chicago CB Nathan Vasher won't play and safety Mike Brown is already lost for the season. That will be a problem against the Lions passing attack led by WRs Roy Williams, Shaun McDonald and rookie Calvin Johnson. The Lions' 25th-ranked defense gives Griese another opportunity to put up points (they've average 26 ppg the last 4). PLAY THE LIONS/BEARS OVER THE TOTAL.
Wild Bill
Carolina +6 1/2 (2 units)
Miami +9 1/2 (5 units)
Eagles -1 (5 units)
Pittsburgh -3 (2 units)
Houston +13 (2 units)
Washington +16 1/2 (4 units)
Over 39 Saints-49'ers (2 units)
TOM SCOTT’S ANGLE OF THE WEEK
Except for the rare occurrences of teams like New England this season, the NFL is a series of ups and downs throughout the season. It is always more prudent to take the contrary side in an NFL game as we will show with this study. Looking at all NFL teams who failed to score more than ten points in either of their last two games, we found that the home underdogs are the ones who respond the best, especially against less than mighty opponents who have displayed current defensive weaknesses. We define "less than mighty" as teams with a WL% less than .666 and "current defensive weakness" as teams who allowed more than 14 points in their last game. When you put all of those things together, you get this angle:
PLAY ON any NFL home dog or pick who scored ten or less points in each of its last two games if his opponent has a WL% of less than .666 and allowed more than 14 points in his last game.
26 Year ATS = 39-19 for 67.2% winners.
This week’s play = SAINT LOUIS plus the points over Cleveland
Scott Rickenbach
Minnesota Vikings (+) vs Philadelphia @ 1 ET -
The Eagles overall struggles this season returned last week as they blew the cover and then the entire game against the Bears. The psyche of Philadelphia is becoming more damaged with each loss and now they face a tough road test this week that we feel will prove to be insurmountable.
The Eagles will be facing the Vikings who are coached by former Eagles offensive coordinator Brad Childress. The Vikings head coach will certainly have some extra motivation for this match-up with Andy Reid's Eagles. Although Minnesota's offense struggled last week they have a strong running game that could flourish against an Eagles team that has lost it's confidence.
The fact that the Vikings battled hard at Dallas last week, and really only lost the game on a special teams touchdown, bodes well for a bounce back effort as they return home this week. As for Philly, the Eagles injuries continue to mount and Donovan McNabb continues to be inconsistent at QB for Philadelphia. With Brian Dawkins and Lito Sheppard both hurting for Philly, Vikings QB Tavaris Jackson should be able to get a little more out of the Minnesota passing attack. That will be a perfect complement to the solid ground based attack of the Vikings. Play Minnesota Sunday!
Steve Merrill
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers Oct 28, 2007 4:15PM
PICK: under 40 BoDog
REASON FOR PICK: Both offenses have been terrible this season as the Saints are averaging just 16.8 points per game and the 49ers are averaging only 13.0 points per game. San Francisco has been particularly bad at home this year where they have scored an average of just 10 points per game.
The 49ers’ strength has been a decent rushing attack that averages 4.2 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 3.8 ypr), but New Orleans has actually been strong against the run this year as the Saints allow just 3.6 yards per rush (versus opponents that average 4.1 ypr).
The Saints problem on defense has come in the secondary as New Orleans allows a terrible 8.4 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 6.6 ypp), but it is unlikely that San Francisco can exploit this weakness as the 49ers have the worst passing attack in the league and average just 4.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that permit 6.2 ypp).
San Francisco has been a decent defensive team this season as they allow just 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.2 yppl) and they should be able to contain a struggling New Orleans offense that has averaged just 4.8 yards per play (versus opponents that permit 5.2 yppl).
Based on last year’s results, the oddsmakers and public still consider these two teams as good offensive clubs, but the realty is both offenses are struggling this season and therefore the value lies with the Under.
Stephen Nover
GAME: Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers Oct 28, 2007
1:00PM
PICK: Carolina Panthers +7
REASON FOR PICK: You couldn't ask for a better sandwich situation to back an underdog than this matchup.
The Colts are traveling on a short week following a huge division win against the Jaguars on Monday night and then host the Patriots the following Sunday.
The Colts are only human, although it may not seem that way with Peyton Manning. They have to be thinking - at least subconsciously - about their upcoming matchup with New England, which will be the biggest and most hyped game of the season.
This spot couldn't be better for Carolina. The Panthers were idle last week, giving them extra preparation and rest time. They are a tremendous 18-4-1 (81 percent) against the spread as an underdog.
The Colts, on the other hand, are 2-6 against the spread as a road favorite. They are on a grass field here, an off-surface for them.
No, the Panthers are not in the Colts' class. But they are a well-coached, disciplined team with a great playmaker in Steve Smith, a dominant defensive lineman in Julius Peppers and outstanding special teams. Smith and Peppers are off tremendous performances in their last game, a 25-10 road victory against the improved Cardinals.
Carolina is at its pointspread best when taking points. The situational aspects are horrendous for the Colts. The combination should spell a pointspread cover for the Panthers.
Hilton Contest Week #8
Last Week: 6-8
#1 Selections: 4-5 (3 tied at #1 for week #1)
Top 5 Picks Last Week: 3-2
Season Record: 46-49-6 (2 no bets)
Top 5 Picks This Season: 15-19-1
1 Pittsburgh -3.5
2 Chicago -5
3 San Diego -7
4 St. Louis +3
5 Indianapolis -7
5 Washington +16.5
6 NY Giants -9
6 NY Jets -2.5
7 Minnesota +1
8 Denver -3
9 New Orleans -2.5
12 Tampa Bay -3.5
15 Oakland +7
Doug Williams New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (in London)
Giants to cover -9.5
No Zach Thomas for Miami. I think they have given up anyway.
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers
Indy to cover -6.5
David Carr or Teste Verde can't help Carolina.
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
OVER 40.5
N.O. is getting better and S.F. has Vernon Davis and Alex Smith back - they're gonna light it up.
Cleveland Browns @ St Louis Rams
UNDER 44.5
St. Louis is a disaster area, having been destroyed by injuries and they are still looking for their first win of the 2007 season, and I can see the Browns slowing up on the road here.
Norm Hitzges Double Plays
San Diego -10 vs Houston
Cleveland/St. Louis Over 45
Single Plays
Chicago -5 vs Detroit
New England -16.5 vs Washington
Tennessee -7.5 vs Oakland
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs Cincinnati
Jacksonville/Tampa Under 32
Denver -3 vs Green Bay
Pittsburgh/Cincinnati Under 48
Sports Insights
Detroit Lions +5
Carolina Panthers +7
Jacksonville Jaguars +4
Jason Firestone Sunday 3 pack with Guarantee!
I am pissed off after Saturday, so if you have been following my plays, please jump on this card today! If I do not profit, the rest of the season is 100% FREE!!! Just e-mail me!
EASY 3-0 .......
Play the Rams +3 for 5 units - INTER CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR!!!!
This team is finally healthy, and they have the 0-for going for them. I say it every year. Its harder to go 0-16 than it is to go 16-0. At some point pride has to set in, and I think that's why the Rams are trying to get healthy. Besides, if you cant beat the Browns, who can you beat? Look for a Big game out of the Big 3 (Bulger, Holt, and Jackson) I look for a dominating offense today and a 27-13 type win for the Rams.
Play the Giants -10 for 3 units
If your going to play in London, you better damn well have a reason to play. The Giants are fighting for their lives in the NFC East, while the Dolphins are enjoying their time in a city most of them have never been to before. They don't care about this game one bit, and it will show right from the start. With no run game anymore, the Dolphins may get shut out. Giants wins this one 41-6 (This could also easily be the Inter Conference GOY, but I don't like the travel factor)
Play the Raiders +7.5 for 1.5 units
The Titans are a horrible 0-7 against the spread since 2001 when laying more than a FG. The Raiders seem to be in every game, and their defensive line is one that could cause some problems for Young. Culpepper seems to rise up in Big games, and this is one he would love to have. Titans 23- Raiders 19
Bonus 1.5 unit teaser (First of the Year) - 6 pointer
Indy to -1/2 with Washington +22.5
I think both of these teams (Indy and the Pats that is) will struggle to cover the number today, but both should win the game outright, as we look ahead to the showdown next week. Indy by a FG, and the Pats by 14-17
Kelso Sunday Clubs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 units Redskins +16 @ NE (Chairmans Club)
5 units = Giants -9.5 v. Miami
4 units = Steelers/Bengals Over 48
3 units = Browns -3 @ Rams
Ace-Ace/Allan Eastman
$2000. Buffalo ML +1.34
$2000. Buffalo under 37.5
$2000. Pittsburgh -3.5
Brandon Lang
30 DIME
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
5 DIME
Eagles
Giants
Redskins
Browns/Rams OVER
Free Pick - Bills/Jets OVER
MARC LAWRENCE LATE PHONE NFL
3* St.louis +3
3* Pittsburgh -3.5
3* Denver -3
Spylock
5* Minny
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick
(Sun) NFL Bears Lions 5 Bears
(Sun) NFL Saints 49ers 2- 49ers
(Sun) NFL Jets Bills 3 Jets
HILTON vs. STATIONS TOP 5
HILTON
#1- PITTSBURGH
#2- CHICAGO
#3- SAN DIEGO
#4- ST LOUIS
#5- WASHINGTON ( TIE )
#5- INDIANAPOLIS ( TIE )
STATIONS
#1- PITTSBURGH
#2- SAN FRANCISCO
#3- CHICAGO
#4- WASHINGTON ( TIE )
#4- MINNESOTA ( TIE )
#5- GREEN BAY ( TIE )
#5- ST LOUIS ( TIE )
#5- NY GIANTS ( TIE )