BIG AL's 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH; 25-0 ATS SYSTEM
At 1 pm, our 5* NFL Game of the Month is on the Carolina Panthers plus the points over Indianapolis. Although the Colts are 6-0 (for the third straight season), they often win by seven or less points (over half of their last 23 wins were by this margin of seven or less points). And after covering their last three ballgames, Indy falls into a nasty ATS situation. What we want to do is play AGAINST any unrested .888 (or better) favorite of -12 or less points that is off six or more wins, and three or more ATS wins, if they're matched up against a .333 (or better) foe. These teams have NEVER covered the spread in 27 games dating back to 1980, going 0-25-2 ATS, and have lost 16 of those 27 games outright (even though being favored in every one). The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Indy in their history, winning all three outright as underdogs. The last meeting between these two teams came in 2003, and Carolina beat the Colts 23-20 as a 4-point dog. 5* NFL Game of the Month on Carolina. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. And don't miss my other NFL Winners today, as we're 67% here over the last 3 weeks.
Ben Burns' Divisional GAME OF YEAR *28-14 L42 GOYs
I'm taking the points with CINCINNATI. Off to a 1-4 start and trailing the Jets, the Bengals' once promising season appeared all but over. However, the Bengals dug deep and rallied to win and cover vs. the Jets. For all their problems, the Bengals are right back in the playoff race if they can knock off the hated Steelers on Sunday. I believe that they can. Yes, the Bengals have struggled on the road. However, they're 2-1 SU/ATS at home with the lone loss coming vs. the Patriots, a team which has been crushing everything in its path. Meanwhile, since beating a Charlie Frye led Browns' team, the Steelers have played poorly in both their road games, losing outright as favorites at both Arizona and Denver. Dating back to last season, the Steelers have won just four of their last 11 road games, two of those wins coming at Cleveland. It's also worth noting that the Steelers are a money-burning 6-13-1 ATS the last 20 times they were favored by four points or less. Its often tough to play back to games in the NFL and the Steelers haven't fared well the last couple of times in that situation. Last season, when playing the second of back to back games away from Pittsburgh, they lost 27-0 at Baltimore AND lost outright, as nine point favorites, at Oakland. This will be their first time in that situation this season. Obviously this is a huge game for the Steelers. However, it's even bigger for the Bengals, who I feel are better than their record indicates. Look for them to prove to be the hungrier team and for them to score the upset. *AFC North GOY
MVP cappers
NFL: Buffalo +3 (5 Units)
NFL: Detroit +5 (5 Units)
NFL: Carolina +7 (4 Units)
NFL: Jacksonville +3.6 (4 Units)
Ats Lock Club
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3 units on the Boston Red Sox (-130) over the Colordo Rockies, 8:20
CHARLIES SPORTS
carolina+7 (500* )
giants @ miami under 48 (30*)
cincinnati+4 (20*)
tennessee-7' (20*)
jets-3 (10*)
CHARLIES SPORTS
carolina+7 (500* )
giants @ miami under 48 (30*)
cincinnati+4 (20*)
tennessee-7' (20*)
jets-3 (10*)
Lenny Del Genio
Game: Cots at Panthers
Pick: Panthers
Reason: Play on the Panthers at 1:00 ET. There is only one current NFL team the Colts have never beaten, the Carolina Panthers (0-3). That really isn't relevant here but why not mention it when I'm picking the Panthers? The Colts had something to prove last Monday night, with the Pats getting all the headlines these days, despite Indy being unbeaten and the defending champs. There was also that little matter of LY's 44-17 loss at Jacksonville, in which the Jags ran for 375 yards. The Colts played an excellent game Monday, winning 29-7. Here, they travel off a short week and have a Week 9 date with New England coming up next! The Colts have not been a good road favorite lately (2-6-1 ATS) and it won't help that WR Marvin Harrison is sitting again. It's hard to be thrilled with Carolina's QB situation, as it's either David Carr or the ancient Vinny Testaverde. Whoever plays QB, there is always the ever-dangerous Steve Smith to throw to and the Panthers' D is clearly rounding into form, allowing 15.8 ppg the last four games. DE Julius Peppers is coming off his best game of the year at Arizona and under John Fox, the Panthers are 18-4-1 as underdogs! Take the Panthers.
Ron Meyer
Chalkboard - Tennessee
Playbook - Minnesota
Live Dog - San Francisco
Looker Room - Washington
Coaches Consensus - Chicago
POINTWISE:
PITT over Cincinnati RATING 2
INDI over Carolina RATING 3
CHICAGO over Detroit RATING 4
NEW ENGLAND over Wash RATING 4
BUFFALO over NYJets RATING 5
BIG AL's NFL FAVORITE OF THE MONTH (67% L3 WEEKS).
At 4:05 pm, our NFL Favorite of the Month is on the New York Jets over the Bills. Earlier this season, Buffalo beat the Flyboys 17-14 at Rich Stadium, so the Jets play with revenge from that loss. Buffalo won last week at home, and had a bye week before that. But NFL teams really struggle following a home win after a bye week. After having two weeks to rest and prepare for a home game, these teams struggle after winning that game, and especially when matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS loss (covering just 28 of 83 games). And as dogs of +3 or more this situation deteriorates to the point where our 'play-against' team has covered just five of 32 games. Take the NY Jets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
BIG AL'S 100% ATS NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (4-1 L5).
At 1 pm, our NFL Total of the Month is on the 'over' in the St. Louis/Cleveland game, as it falls into a totals system of mine that has won over 57% of the time since 1980. Also, Cleveland has played 100% 'overs' this season. This game also sets up nicely for Marc Bulger & Co. to finally get off the schneid, and score some points. Cleveland ranks 30th in defense, and, without a potent pass-rush, won't be able to pressure the Rams like Seattle did last week, which resulted in countless Bulger turnovers. This will enable Bulger to finally connect with his receivers, so I expect Torry Holt to have a big day, and Isaac Bruce and Drew Bennett to fare well also. It also will help to get Steven Jackson back in the line-up since his presence will draw the linebackers up, and that will give Holt, Drew Bennett, and the other Ram receivers more room in the secondary. On the other sideline, QB Derek Anderson is having a wonderful year, and WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow are riding Anderson's right arm to career-best statistics. The Rams' defense has been playing fairly well, but they don't have players to match up with either Winslow or Edwards. This has all the makings of a shootout. Take the 'over'. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my 5* NFL Game of the Month, or my NFL Favorite of the Month today on Sunday, or my World Series Game of the Year tonight.
BIG ALs WORLD SERIES GAME OF THE YEAR; 100% L3 YRS
At 8:20pm our World Series Game of the Year is on the Colorado Rockies over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have seen many lefthanded starters this postseason, and have pretty much owned them, so now it's their turn to start a southpaw. Game four starter Jon Lester is the first lefthander that Boston has gone to open a game this postseason and in fact the is the first start by a southpaw since Lester's last start for Boston on September 26. By now just about everybody knows the feel-good story behind Lester and the fact that he has overcome cancer and has been able to resume his major league career and is now looking at a possible World Series ring in this, only his second year in the Majors. But it has not been exactly a smooth road for Lester since returning in late July. In eleven starts, Lester has a 4.59 ERA and in his last three starts, that ERA has ballooned to 5.52. Colorado will start a pitcher who has not started a game since August 10 in righthander Aaron Cook. Cook did pitch a very good game against the Red Sox back on June 12 of this year when he gave up just two earned runs in seven and a third innings. Although Cook's overall record is just over .500 at 8-7, his record in night games is 7-3 and his ERA in those games is 3.38, versus 5.29 in the daylight. Lester, on the other hand, struggles greatly at night (4.91 this year, compared to 2.25 in the daytime). Lester also doesn't have an overpowering fastball, and he's the type of lefty pitcher that the Rockies destroy. Boston, on the other hand, does a lot better against straight-ahead, hard-throwing pitchers, so Aaron Cook, who utilizes a lot of SINKING fastballs, should have great success tonight (similar to his success this past June at Fenway Park). With the much better pitcher on the mound, the Rockies should be favored (and probably would be, if they didn't drop the first 3 games of the series). We'll take advantage of the overlay, and make the Rockies our World Series Game of the Year. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
Carlo Campanella
Detroit (4-2) has struggled on the road this season, owning just a 1-2 SU & ATS records and we find them at 1-8 ATS as road Dogs of 7 points or less. The defense has struggled the most while allowing an unbelievable 37 points per game away from home this year. Chicago's strength is in their defense and that weak Lions defense will be just enough for the Bears offense to cover the spread, especially knowing that they're 2-0 ATS & SU when hosting Detroit the past 3 seasons.
7* Play On Chicago
Fairway Jay
NFL in London
The Giants – Dolphins game is being played in London at sold out Wembley Stadium. London-born defensive end Osi Umenyiora and kicker Lawrence Tynes, both of the NY Giants, are British citizens. The game is getting a lot of coverage from the British press. The Giants have won five-straight games, including four in a row by double digits. Still, the Dolphins were a consideration for my regular card, along with an ‘over’ the total selection below. As I evaluated the contest, I tried to determine how the long trip and jet lad could affect preparation and play. In the match-up, I kept coming back to what I projected as a New York advantage running the football. That despite the Dolphins running success last week against New England (179 yards) with Jessie Chapman gaining 73 yards on just seven carries. He’ll carry the load now with the season-ending injury to Ronnie Brown. Additional concerns at QB with Cleo Lemon playing average thus far in his 4th start. The recent trade of the Dolphins top wide receiver Chris Chambers has me wondering about Miami’s commitment this season and moving forward. And top linebacker Zack Thomas (neck) is now out for this contest. Still, I’m not ready to ‘lay it‘ with the Giants like the betting public insists on doing here (–9.5 points). New York will play without running back Derrick Ward (ankle), and RB Brandon Jacobs is ready to go. However free safety James Butler (hamstring) is out, which should help the scoring in this contest. Historically in the NFL, winless teams of 0-5 or worse are a solid 62% ATS play as underdogs, and better than 67% when facing a non-division opponent. Watch and see how the Dolphins and Rams do this week, as each fits that technical situation. Here is a newsletter and contest selection I wrote-up last Sunday.
NY Giants at Miami Dolphins ‘over’ 47.5 - The Dolphins defense was torched again last week, allowing the Patriots to rack up 336 yards and 41 points in the first half alone in a 49-28 loss. Miami games have gone ‘over’ the total in five contests and their defensive deficiencies are not getting fixed. The Dolphins are dead last in the AFC in defensive yards-per-point; the distance traveled for an opponent to score. They allow over 155 ypg on the ground, and a whopping 8.9 yards-per-pass. Eli Manning and the Giants offense will move the ball against the Dolphins defense that also allows a league-worst 53% completions on 3rd down. The Giants racked up 31+ points and 491 and 374 yards vs. the equally inept defenses of the Falcons and Jets just prior to last week. The bright spot for Miami is their running game that went for 179 against New England and averages 115 ypg and over 5.0 ypr. While the Giants defense leads the league in sacks, they ranked ahead of only two NFC teams in defensive yards-per-point prior to facing the leagues worst offense in San Francisco. Both teams have above average offenses each at 5.5 ypp and rank top-10 in average yards-per-drive. Combined with sub-par coverage units, we should see each team able to take advantage of favorable field position. I have some strong situational and statistical indicators that point to plenty of scoring in this contest, and despite rising numbers in Miami games, play it ‘over’ the total.
ATS Financial Package
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Phillidelphia -1.................4 Units
Jets -3..........................4 Units
Washington +16 1/2.........4 Units
Mike Neri Sports - Late Service
BASEBALL
Colorado w/Cook +125 Risk 1 Unit to make 1.25 8:20 EST
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
PASS
NFL FOOTBALL
FOUR STAR: OVER 45 Detroit and Chicago 1:00 EST
THREE STAR: OVER 45.5 Cleveland and St Louis 1:00 EST
THREE STAR: 215 Pittsburgh -4 1:00 EST
THREE STAR: 222 Tampa Bay -3.5 4:05 EST
THREE STAR: 224 San Francisco +2 4:15 EST
PPP
5% Pitt
5% Det over
Jb Sports
3 St L Nyj Norl
2 Chicago