Sunday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
OVER (37 1/2) - TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 28 Arizona 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Tampa Bay’s offense has been better than their scoring average of 18.4 points indicates, as the Bucs have averaged 5.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Some miscues down in the red-zone have led to the lower than expected scoring, but those events are not likely to continue to happen and Tampa should move the ball well against an Arizona defense that is 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Tampa has injuries to the offensive line and to their running back unit, but they’ve run the ball at a decent level since top linemen Luke Petitgout went on the IR before week 5, and running back Earnest Graham is doing a good job running the ball (Tampa has run for 260 yards at 5.2 ypr the last two weeks). Arizona’s offense is also better than their season average of 0.3 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) now that Kurt Warner is the starting quarterback. Matt Leinart was horrible early in the season before getting injured (just 5.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while Warner has averaged 7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Warner was also considerably better than Leinart last season, so there is no doubt that Arizona is a better offensive team now than they were earlier in the season. Warner was knocked out early in his first start against Carolina in week 6, but the Cardinals averaged a solid 5.0 yppl in Warner’s first full game at quarterback against a very good Washington defense that would allow just 4.3 yppl at home to an average team. I rate Arizona’s attack at 1.1 yppl better than average with Warner at the helm and the Cardinals’ offense has an advantage over a solid Buccaneers defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl against teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Both offensive units have a clear advantage in this game and the Over looks like a very good play given that the total is a few points lower than an average NFL total. The Over even looks like a value if Tampa Bay continues to have trouble scoring in the redzone. Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 35.2 total points against teams that combine to average 40.2 total points per game, which is 5.0 below average). Arizona’s games average 43.4 total points against a schedule that combines to average only 37.4 total points, which is 6.0 points more than average. The average points scored in an NFL game this year is 42.0 with the median total points at 40 ½ points. Even just using compensated points would yield a fair total of 41 ½ points (40.5 median -5.0 + 6.0 = 41.5) and that doesn’t even take into account that Arizona is now a better offensive team with Warner at quarterback. The total is simply way to low and my math model is a solid 87-55-3 picking the Over when the difference is 6 points or more and the total is less than 48 points, including 8-3 this season. I’ll go OVER 38 points or less in a 3-Star Best Bet and the OVER is a 2-Star Best Bet from 38 ½ points to 41 points.

My math model also favors Tampa Bay by 6 ½ points and the Buccaneers apply to a solid 61- 21-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Jon Gruden is 24-11-2 ATS in his coaching career as a favorite or pick following a loss. That trend lost last week because of 3 random Jeff Garcia interceptions (he had thrown zero picks in the first 7 games and averages only 0.7 per game in his career). Tampa Bay out-gained Jacksonville 385 yards at 6.0 yppl to 221 yards at 3.7 yppl and would have won easily if not for the -3 in turnover margin. Unfortunately, Arizona applies to a solid 71-30-1 ATS situation and I’ll just lean with Tampa Bay in this game based on the math model forecast.

3 Star Selection
Houston 23 OAKLAND (-3.0) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Oakland is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite (1-7 straight up), including 0-3 ATS this season, and the only game this season that the Raiders have won and covered was against winless Miami. Houston was -5 in turnovers last week in San Diego, giving them no chance to cover, but that loss sets up the Texans in a very strong 50-12-1 ATS subset of a 90-33-1 ATS road underdog bounce back situation. Houston is also a better team than Oakland, even with Sage Rosenfels starting at quarterback for the injured Matt Schaub. Rosenfels has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and his 6.9 yppp average on 227 career pass plays is much better than average (6.1 yppp is average in recent years). Houston doesn’t have much of a ground attack (just 3.3 ypr) but they have still been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season and I rate them at 0.2 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at the helm. The Raiders defense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team, so Houston should move the ball well in this game. Oakland’s offense has sputtered in recent weeks (just 4.0 yppl and 11 points per game in their last 3 games) and has been 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season, which is just as bad as a Houston defense that also 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). Houston has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, but Rosenfels is a bit interception prone and the Raiders have a 2.8 points advantage in projected turnovers. Even with that advantage my math model only favors Oakland by 2 ½ points in this game, so the line is fair. The situation strongly favors Houston and I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-1.15 odds or better) and for 2- Stars at +3 (-1.20 or worse) down to +1 point.

2 Star Selection
**INDIANAPOLIS 27 New England (-5.5) 24
01:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
If anyone can stop the Patriots it is an undefeated Colts team that is certainly not intimidated by Tom Brady and company, who they’ve beaten 3 consecutive teams. What New England has done so far this season is unprecedented, as winning and covering the spread in each of their first 8 games has never been done before, but I still insist that the pointspreads have been inflated in recent weeks. Lost in the glare of New England’s fantastic start has been the great play of the Colts, who are as good as ever offensively and rate as the second best defensive team in the NFL after compensating for level of opponent. The Colts’ offense is 0.8 yards per play better than average this season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they have an advantage over a good Patriots’ defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average. The Colts’ defense has yielded just 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but they are at a disadvantage in this game against a Patriots’ attack that has averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average team. New England just gained 6.4 yppl against Washington, the league’s best defensive team, so the question I asked myself is if the level of the opposing defense has any bearing on the Patriots’ offensive production. I calculated a regression equation for New England’s offense as a function of the level of the opposing defense and site and it turns out that the level of the opponent’s defense has less influence on the Patriots’ offense than normal. My math makes this game a pick, but the math would favor New England by 2 points if I adjust for the fact that the Patriots are influenced less than normal by good defensive teams. I can also make an adjustment based on the fact that New England’s scoring margin of 25.5 points per game is 6.8 points better than their statistics would project. The Colts’ 17.4 points average margin of victory is 3.1 points better than their stats would project, so I can certainly justify a line of New England by 5 ½ if each team continues to out-play their stats as they have so far this season (that’s my adjusted math model at New England by 2 points plus 6.8 minus 3.1 equals 5.7 points). But, there is no way I can justify a line higher than 5 ½ points and I think 2 ½ or 3 points is a fair line in this game. With the line at least fair, we can play the Colts based on a number of high percentage situations. Indy applies to a 47-12-1 ATS scheduling situation that plays on good teams at home after playing 2 or more games on the road. The colts also apply to a 67-24-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while New England applies to a negative 23-74-3 ATS situation as well as a few other negative situations. I’ll resist making the Colts a 3-Star as they probably should be based on the strong situations, but I’ll take Indianapolis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars if the line gets up to +7 points.

2 Star Selection
**PHILADELPHIA 21 Dallas (-3.5) 17
05:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
The Cowboys are the 3rd best team in the NFL so far, rating at 1.1 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.7 yppl better than average on defense in 4 games since impact LB Greg Ellis joined that unit. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is just 3-4 straight up and the Eagles have been a major disappointment so far. Philadelphia has been pretty offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and a bit better than average on defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The Eagles certainly have proven that they can be better offensively and the defense is getting healthy again after struggling for a few weeks without star CB Lito Sheppard (he’s played just 3 games) and star S Brian Dawkins, who has played just 2 games but will be back this week. My math model favors Dallas by just 1 ½ points in this game and the Eagles apply to a 73-26-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. I certainly don’t mind taking points with an Eagles squad that is 36-20-2 ATS as an underdog in coach Andy Reid’s 9 seasons. I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-1.20 odds or better) or more.

Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (-4.0) 21 Carolina 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Carolina’s offense has really struggled without starting quarterback Jake Delhomme, as backups David Carr and Vinny Testaverde have combined to lead the offense to just 4.5 yards per play in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team. David Carr will start this game and he’s been particularly bad this year (4.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but he’s likely to play better than he’s been playing and I rate the attack at 0.5 yppl worse than average with Carr at the controls. Don’t expect much production from that unit in this game against a stout Titans’ defense that has yielded just 4.9 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. The only problem with the Titans is an offense that has been 0.7 yppl worse than average with Vince Young under center. Young has had a horrible season throwing the football (5.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and Tennessee’s rushing attack has been only average this season (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr). Carolina has been slightly better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl), so Tennessee is likely to produce around their average number of points in this game (they average 20.7 points per game). The Titans defense has given up 14 points or less in 5 of their 7 games with the only two teams scoring more than 14 points being good offensive teams (Indy and Houston) – something which Carolina certainly is not. My math model favors Tennessee by 7 ½ points and the Titans apply to a solid 158-92-9 ATS statistical profile indicator. Carolina is 22-7-2 ATS as an underdog in recent years, which basically cancels out the angle favoring Tennessee. The value is still on the side of Tennessee and I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at -4 points or less and I’d certainly take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.

Strong Opinion
MINNESOTA 21 San Diego (-7.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
San Diego didn’t look so good early in the season but the Chargers have won and covered in 3 straight games heading into this affair with the Vikings. The line on this game suggests that the Chargers are back to being the Chargers after struggling early in the season, but that may not necessarily be the case. San Diego has played better the last 3 games, but it’s pretty easy to look good when you’re +10 in turnover margin in a 3 game span, as the Chargers have been in their last 3 games (+5 TO last week against Houston). San Diego is clearly a good team, but being favored by 7 points on the road against a decent Vikings team is a bit of a stretch. Minnesota is only 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback and the Vikings are 0.1 yppl better than average on defense. San Diego is 0.4 yppl better than average on offense for the season and just average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model favors San Diego by only 1 ½ points, so there certainly appears to be an overreaction to the Chargers’ recent success. Now, it certainly is possible that San Diego will continue to play at the level they’ve played the last 3 games (without the benefit of +10 in turnover margin, of course), but the math would only favor San Diego by 7 points if I only used their last 3 games – so the current line is assuming the very best from the Chargers. There is no valid reason to throw out San Diego’s first 4 games of the season, so the true line is probably closer to 4 points or so. Even if the line should be 7 points the Vikings are still worth a look given that they apply to a solid 158-92-9 ATS statistical profile indicator while San Diego applies to a negative 35-61-1 ATS letdown situation. The only game Minnesota has lost by more than 7 points this season was a respectable 10 point loss on the road at Dallas, so they can certainly hang within 7 points at home today. I’ll respect San Diego’s recent success enough to keep me from playing Minnesota, but I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

DR VEGAS

FREE FOOTBALL PICKS FOR GAMES NOVEMBER 4

NFL Pro Football Free Picks

VS.

Green Bay Packers (6-1) At Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)

Date & Time: November 4, Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Brett Favre has beaten every NFL team but one in his illustrious career for the Green Bay Packers. To complete the list and knock off the Kansas City Chiefs, he may need to rely as heavily as ever on his arm. Favre tries to keep the Packers flying high when they visit Kansas City on Sunday for the first time in 11 years. Favre is 0-3 against Kansas City, including a 27-20 loss in 1996 - the team's last visit to Arrowhead Stadium. Already lacking a consistent running game this season, the Packers won't have the services of starting running back DeShawn Wynn as Favre tries to finally get a win against the Chiefs.

Wynn was hurt in Green Bay's 19-13 overtime victory over Denver on Monday night, suffering a significant shoulder injury that will end his season. Ryan Grant, who rushed for 104 yards in Wynn's place, has been named the starter. Even with Wynn, the Packers (6-1) weren't running the ball much. Green Bay is last in the NFL in rushing at 71.3 yards per game. Instead, Green Bay has used short passes and the occasional deep ball to get off to their best start since 2002, and Favre is playing like he did when he won three straight MVP awards from 1995-97.

Favre is averaging 292.3 yards per game, second in the NFL, and is on pace for his best quarterback rating since 2001. His 82-yard touchdown pass to Greg Jennings on the first play of overtime Monday gave Green Bay 10 wins in its last 11 games. With Grant having productive performances like he did Monday night, the Packers can utilize more play-action, which led to both touchdowns against Denver. The Packers, winners of five straight on the road, have used the leadership of Favre and a strong, young defense to grab a share of the NFC's best record along with Dallas. Neither Favre nor the Packers, though, have had the best of luck against the Chiefs (4-3). Favre has five touchdowns and five interceptions with a 77.0 passer rating in his three defeats to Kansas City - in 1993, 1996 and 2003 - and the Packers have lost five straight overall to the Chiefs, their longest active losing streak to one team.

Four years ago, Kansas City rallied from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit - the biggest comeback in team history - to beat Green Bay 40-34 in overtime and improve to 6-0. This season, the Chiefs are also in first place in the AFC West, tied with San Diego, and have been one of the surprises of the league. After starting 0-2 and looking resigned to a rough year, Kansas City has reversed course, as an active defense has lifted the Chiefs to four wins in their last five games. The Chiefs, coming off a bye week, are even with the Chargers despite being outscored 113-102 on the season.

Jared Allen leads the AFC with eight sacks in just five games, and Kansas City ranks sixth in the NFL with 21 sacks. The team has forced 15 turnovers and the defense is the best in the NFL inside the red zone, allowing touchdowns only 26.7 percent of the time. Allen has been perhaps the biggest reason for that. After a two-game suspension to start the year because of multiple DUI convictions, his return has coincided with the Chiefs' 4-1 stretch. After a slow start following his preseason holdout, Pro Bowl running back Larry Johnson has recorded back-to-back 100-yard games. Receiver Dwayne Bowe, meanwhile, leads all rookies with 29 catches and 499 yards. Green Bay's James Jones is first in the NFC among first-year players with 26 catches and 400 yards.

TAKE GREEN BAY PACKERS PLUS +2 POINTS

TAKE THE OVER 37 POINTS

VS.

Washington Redskins (4-3) At New York Jets (1-7)

Date & Time: November 4, Sunday, 1:00 p.m.
Fans of the New York Jets have been calling for a quarterback change all season. They'll finally get their wish Sunday, but it remains to be seen if a new signal caller can turn New York's dismal season around. Kellen Clemens takes over for Chad Pennington under center and tries to help the Jets end a five-game losing streak when they host the Washington Redskins. New York is off to a 1-7 start and Pennington's struggles are only part of the problem. While his numbers rank him in the middle of the pack among NFL quarterbacks, he hasn't been able to lead his club to many points.

The Jets are 30th in the league in total offense with 284.3 yards per game and rank 26th in scoring with 17.4 points a contest. Pennington hasn't been helped by the Jets' rushing attack, which is averaging just 90.9 yards per game despite the addition of running back Thomas Jones in the offseason. Clemens has appeared in five games since being taken in the second round of the 2006 draft out of Oregon. He's completed 29 of 60 passes for 362 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions. He started in place of an injured Pennington on Sept. 16 in Baltimore, and went 19-for-37 for 260 yards with one TD and two picks in New York's 20-13 loss.

The Jets' skid reached five last Sunday when they managed just 254 yards of offense - their second-lowest total of the season - in a 13-3 home defeat to Buffalo. Pennington had 106 yards on 13 completions and was sacked three times. Clemens replaced him late in the game and was 5-of-12 for 67 yards and two interceptions. Pennington overcame consecutive rotator cuff operations and won the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award last season, when he threw for a career-high 3,352 yards in leading New York to a 10-6 record and a wild-card berth.

This season, he has thrown for 1,317 yards and nine touchdowns in seven games, but has seven interceptions - three that sealed losses - as opposing defensive backs seem to be keying on a lack of arm strength. Jones has only two 100-yard rushing games and has failed to score a TD after running for 1,210 yards and six scores to help Chicago reach the Super Bowl last season. With the inexperienced Clemens now running the team, Jones might get more carries.

Washington (4-3) gets a chance to bounce back against one of the worst teams in the NFL after being routed 52-7 last week by New England, likely the league's top club. The Redskins allowed season highs in points, total yards (486), passing yards (334) and rushing yards (154). They also committed a season-worst four turnovers and held the ball for just 22 minutes, 11 seconds. It was Washington's worst loss since a 53-0 defeat to the New York Giants during its 1-12-1 season of 1961.

This will be Moss' first game against his former team since New York traded him to Washington for fellow receiver Laveranues Coles in March 2005. The Jets selected Moss with the 16th overall pick in the 2001 draft, and he caught 151 passes for 2,416 yards and 19 TDs in four seasons with New York. Coles, meanwhile, started his career with the Jets before leaving after three seasons to sign a seven-year deal with Washington in March 2003. He might not be on the field Sunday, however, as he suffered a concussion late in the loss to Buffalo when he jumped to catch a pass from Pennington and was immediately hit in the middle of the back by Terrence McGee. The Redskins are 7-1 all-time against the Jets.

TAKE WASHINGTON REDSKINS MINUS -3 POINTS

HILTON CONTEST TOP 5

#1 - INDIANAPOLIS *
#2 - KANSAS CITY
#3 - PHILADELPHIA *
#4 - DALLAS *
#5 - NEW ENGLAND *

*Note: teams play each other. DAL/PHILA & INDY/NE.

Wunderdog Comp (NFL)
Game: Houston at Oakland (Sunday 11/04 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Houston +3

Oakland hasn't been a favorite much in recent years. When they have laid points, they have not been kind to backers. This team is just way too unreliable on the offensive side of the ball to be favored in any game. They have had three opportunities to cash as a favorite this season and failed each time. We think they make it 0-4 on Sunday. The offensive line has yielded 22 sacks already and Daunte Culpepper has a penchant for fumbling (he holds the NFL record for the most in a season). The Raiders don't get to the QB either, and are dead last against the run (ranked #32 allowing 5.3 yards per carry). Houston is banged up, but they still have more to offer than Oakland at this stage of the season. The Raiders have lost five straight games as a favorite, are 7-18 ATS to teams with losing records, and 6-19 ATS at home last 25. The Silver and Black are also 3-13 ATS the past three seasons when the line is -3 to +3 and they are 5-14 ATS overall at home over that span! Houston has always played well after back-to- back losses, as they are 21-11 ATS in that situation. Houston is the better team, even in their banged up state, and getting 3 points is a gift we'll take.

MARC LAWRENCE PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB NFL pick

11/4/07 - NFL
WRONG DOG
PLAY ON any NFL home dog off a SU road favored win of 27 points in the victory versus an opponent off a win
of 7 > points.
ATS W-L Record SInce 1980: 12-0

Play On: Indianapolis Colts

Rationale: NFL home teams that performed admirably on the road the
previous game bring their 'A' game in an underdog role against
opponents off comfortable wins.

Wild Bill

Redskins -3 1/2 (1 unit)
Packers +1 (2 units)
Arizona +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Jaguars +3 1/2 (1 unit)
Seattle ML +105 (1 unit)
Seattle +1 (2 units)
Colts +5 1/2 (4 units)
Colts ML +210 (1 unit)
Houston +3 (1 unit)
Over 46 Dallas-Eagles (2 units)

Pointwise:

4* Denver
3* Cleveland, New England, Tampa Bay, San Diego
2* Monday Night Pittsburgh
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Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans Nov 4 2007 1:00PM

Prediction: Tennessee Titans

Reason: At 1 pm, on Sunday, our complimentary selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the 4 points over Carolina. The Titans are rushing for over 4 yards a carry, and giving up less than 4 yards per carry, and home teams with this profile are solid bets at Game 5 of the season forward, if they're off a straight-up win, and priced as favorites of -4.5 points or less. These teams are a super 72-37 ATS (64%). Since Vince Young was inserted as the starting QB, Jeff Fisher's men have been awesome, going 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS, including 4-1 ATS off a pointspread loss. Last week, the Titans failed to get the $$$$ vs. Oakland, so I look for them to rebound with a strong effort here. Lay the points. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie.

Norm Hitzges

NFL: 46-30

NFL
Double Plays

Cleveland -1 vs Seattle
Pittsburgh -9 vs Baltimore

Single Plays

Washington -3.5 vs NY Jets
Arizona +3.5 vs Tampa Bay
Carolina +4 vs Tennessee
Jacksonville +3.5 vs New Orleans
Cleveland/Seattle Over 47
Pittsburgh/Baltimore Under 36
Atlanta/San Francisco Under 37
Dallas/Philadelphia Under 46.5

Burns NFL

November Blowout GOM - Chiefs

November Underdog GOM - Jets

NFC East Division GOM - Eagles

Other Plays - Colts/Pats Under, Vikings

Teddy Covers

Seattle Seahawks +1.5

REASON FOR PICK: The Browns have allowed a 100 yard rusher six times in their first seven games. Their pass rush is non-existent, sacking the opposing quarterbacks only seven times all year. And their secondary has been torched repeatedly, ranked 31th against the pass. Even Miami’s Cleo Lemon, making only his second career start, had six completions of longer than 15 yards against this defense, as the Dolphins scored a season high 31 points against this Browns ‘D’. St Louis enjoyed their best offensive performance in more than a month against the Browns defense last week. And things aren’t likely to get better for Romeo Crennell’s stop unit this week, after the loss of leading tackler LB D’Qwell Jackson.

Seattle has had an extra week to prepare for this game. They have a major advantage with quarterback Charlie Frye arriving from Cleveland earlier this season, with intimate knowledge of the Browns playbook. With three losses already, and a razor thin lead in the NFC West, this is a crucial game for Seattle’s playoff hopes. Mike Holmgren’s squad is fresh, much healthier than they were before the bye. We’ve seen them win by margin on the road already this season, a 20 point victory at San Francisco. And while the Browns were struggling with the Rams last week, Seattle destroyed St Louis 33-6 right before the bye. Expect Mike Holmgren’s squad to handle Cleveland with relative ease on Sunday. Take the Seahawks.

Matt Fargo

GAME: San Diego Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings Nov 4, 2007 1:00PM
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +8 5Dimes

REASON FOR PICK: San Diego is coming off a blowout win over Houston last Sunday but take a look at the boxscore and you will wonder how it happened. The Texans dominated the game by running 35 more plays from scrimmage thus wining the TOP by over 13 more minutes, doubled the Chargers 22-11 in first downs and outgained San Diego 367-237. The difference was turnover as the Chargers won that battle 5-0. San Diego scored two touchdowns directly off turnovers.

Minnesota remains home following a loss to the Eagles. The Vikings once again did a great job with stopping the run as they held Philadelphia to 62 yards rushing on 26 carries (2.4 ypc) to remain 1st in the NFC in rushing defense. The problem came on offense as the passing game was virtually non-existent. The Vikings threw for only 151 yards between Kelly Holcomb and Brooks Bollinger. The good news is that Tarvaris Jackson will be back this week after missing last week with a broken finger.

The Vikings have outrushed every opponent this season and they will need to do it again or at least come close against the powerful Chargers rushing attack. San Diego could not do much on the ground last week against Houston and should have an even tougher time here against Minnesota. Don’t be surprised to see the Chargers going through the motions as they are definitely in a lookahead spot with as they host Indianapolis next week in San Diego.

The Vikings are a few plays away from having a winning record as they have simply not been able to win the close games. This team has not been blown out as it has lost five games by a total of 30 points, an average of a touchdown a game. Confidence remains high and you only have to go back to 2005 when they were in a similar spot. They were 2-5 at the same point two years ago but won six consecutive games and wound up 9-7. The schedule is definitely doable the remainder of the season.

The infamous two-time zone situation is in effect here. Play against teams that are traveling two time zones and playing an early Sunday game. Those teams are a woeful 10-48 ATS (17.2 percent) since 2000. That includes a 1-8 ATS mark last season and a 2-4 ATS mark this year. A huge tightener for this system is going against those teams is they are favored by six or more points. This brings the situation to 2-23 ATS (8 percent) since 1990.

As mentioned earlier, the Chargers benefited from a 5-0 advantage against the Texans last week and that sets the Vikings up in a great situation. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are +2.5 or better in turnover margin after a game where they forced five or more turnovers. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average point differential being just -0.5 ppg. Look for the Vikings to keep this one very close. Play Minnesota Vikings 1.5 Units

Tom Scott

Carolina at TENNESSEE - 1:00 PM EST

PLAY ON: #409 CAROLINA plus the points

CAROLINA over Tennessee by 7

There really isn't a better underdog in pro football than Carolina. The Panthers are an amazing 27-7 ATS in their last 34 tries as road underdogs, including an amazing 18-2 ATS against opponents who are off an ATS loss. Tennessee, on the other hand, is as bad a favorite as Carolina is good as a dog. The Titans have covered just six of their last 21 games in which they were installed as the chalk. Those numbers alone are worth a play on the Panthers. It doesn't hurt that Tenny has its biggest rival up next or that there is a 44-16 angle on the Carolina side.

PREDICTION: CAROLINA 20 - Tennessee 13

Matty B Sports

Denver @ Detroit 1:00 PM EST

Play On: Denver (+ 3)

Denver has been a living nightmare so far this season. The perennial Playoff contender looks anything but, and they’ve lost some ugly games so far this season. But this is the type of play that beats the NFL on a consistent basis. We’ll play the unwanted underdog catching a small amount of points against the up and coming, flavor of the month team. The public consensus will be all over the 5-2 Lions. After Detroit beat-up Chicago for the 2nd time this year in a road win, Denver was on the losing end of a home overtime loss. That game was the Sunday night telecast so all that watched can’t wait to play against the putrid Broncos. This is an easy winner for the guys that think like that, and it’s also the type of game that prevents many from beating the NFL.

The Lions strength doesn’t match-up with Denver’s weakness. The Broncos are terrible against the run allowing 166 yards per game on 5 yards per rush. But Detroit cannot run the football as they average just 90 yards per game and have gone over 100 in just 3 games. Only once have they gained more than 120 yards, and in the 3 games in which Denver has allowed 120 yards or less, they’ve gone 2-1 straight-up with the loss being their last game vs. Green Bay. Detroit offensive coordinator Mike Martz will be stubborn (like always) and just throw the ball while dismissing the fact that Denver can’t stop the run.

The Broncos should be able to score their share of points on Detroit. Denver’s passing game has been good this year averaging 230 yards per game on 7.5 yards per pass. And that matches-up well vs. the weak Detroit secondary that allows over 250 yards per game on close to 7 yards per pass. Those weak numbers allowed by the Lions have come against bad passing offenses like the Bears (played twice), Bucs, Redskins, Vikings, and Raiders. They won’t be able to shut down Denver, and that will be detrimental to their chances to get a win here. Denver is not that good, but this is a good match-up for them and getting points is an added bonus. Play Denver plus the points.
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