BAGMAN
Cardinals +3.5 over Buccaneers 500 units
The Bucs have out played their last 3 opponents only to come up on the losing end in 2 out of the last 3 games. Garcia is a fierce competitor that never gives up. I would love to take Garcia in this game but I really like the Cardinals defense. I think 3.5 is too many points as the Cards and Fitzgerald will put up some points against the Bucs.
Raiders -3 over Texans 500 units
The pass happy Titans come to Oakland to face one of the top pass stop units in the NFL. I look for the Raiders to put intense pressure on Schaub this week. Schaub will have the worst game of his career and the Raiders will cover the 3 points.
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Doug Williams
Dallas -3 to Cover at Philly
Dallas are the best team in the NFC and are coming off a bye week. Should be easy enough for the Cowboys.
Dallas @ Philly OVER 46.5
Washington -3.5 to COVER at NYJ
Pennington's struggles are only part of the Jets' problem. They are on a five-game losing streak.
Indianapolis +5.5 to cover at home vs New England
Colts have an excellent chance of cashing in for the fourth time in a row against the Pats. Take the 5.5 points and the Colts and think hard about putting something on that money-line. Peyton and the gang will not let the Patriots win this one in their house
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Vegas Hot Sheet
Premium picks
1. San Fran +3.5
2. Carolina +4
3. Kansas City -2
Silver Rated picks
Philly +3
Indy +6
Wash -3.5
New Orleans -3
Houston +3
Tampa Bay Ov 38
Alex Smart
DENVER BRONCOS +3
The Denver Broncos lost a heart breaker to the Green Bay Packers on Monday night in OT. They will be on short rest, but after that above mentioned effort, will want to make amends as soon a possible. I know their Motown hosts look like a good team, and have improved, but the defense remains vulnerable, ranking last in the conference with 367.1 yards allowed per contest. Detroits only saving grace has been their league leading 20 takeaways, 13 interceptions and 69 points off turnovers,a trend which I think will not last. The Broncos offense is averaging 354.6 yards per game to rank seventh in the league, but have trouble converting in the red-zone problems, which is another trend that I think will come to an end as the season progresses. This is a situation where the road dog, maybe under rated and the home favorite a little over rated , making getting points a very good option in this spot. Note: I know Detroit is primarily a running team, and Broncos have a perceived weak run D , thanks to some ugly early season efforts. But after back to back decent performances against the Steelers and Packers, dont count on them being slashed so easily in this spot. Play on Denver
Hank Goldberg
WASH -3.5 NYJ 0-3 1 ATS @ home
KCITY -2.5 Gbay short week, away Mon nite, away again. Quietly, the most KCITY has given up all year is 20 points.
CAR + 4 CAR 23-7-2 as a dog, 16-3-1 as a road dog.
ATL- 3 Lean in a junk game.
JAX + 3.5 JAX 3-0 NO 3-11 last 14 as faves, JAX only given up 5 TD passes all season.
DET -3 Denver is giving up 176 YPG rushing. Maybe Kitna was right about DET getting 10 wins this season.
BUFF +1 BUFF good @ home where they have covered 8 of the last 9. Cinn 0-3 on the road
SD - 7 CHARGERS in a groove and are up against a # 30 ranked D
CLEVE - 1 Playing great at home and are averaging 40 PPG in their wins. Alexandr has been a big no show for Sea.
NE - 5.5 Reasons for ei ither team, but Brady/Moss & co. too strong this time around.
OAK - 3 No Culpepper gives OAK a strong shot. Hou losers of 5 stratght ATS.
DALL - 3.5 COWBOYS corners are getting healthy, Eagles having trouble protecting McNabb, he's been sacked 27 times already.
Brandon Lang
SUNDAY
50 DIME
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
25 DIME
CHARGERS - only lay 7. if your man has 7 1/2 u buy the half and only lay 7. never and I mean never get beat by the hook. Only lay -7.
BROWNS
15 DIME
Indy
Jaguars
Cardinals
10 DIME
Eagles
Lions
ATS Lock Club
7 units on the New England Patriots (-5) over the Indianapolis Colts, 4:00
7 units on the Dallas Cowboys (-3) over the Philadelphia Eagles, 8:00
5 units on the Washington Redskins (-3 1/2) over the NY Jets, 1:00
4 units on the Detroit Lions (-3) over the Denver Broncos, 1:00
Scott Spreitzer-Smashmouth Sports
5 * Arizona Cardinals
4* Carolina Panthers
TKO New Orlean Saints-Heavy Hitter Game of the Month
TKO Houston Texans
KO Philadelphia Eagles
KO Indianapolis Colts
Total 5* Houstan Texans/Oakland Raiders under 41.5
Insider Seattle Seahawks
Big Al's plays
At 4:15 pm, our AFC Game of the Month is on the Indianapolis Colts plus the points over New England. This game has had so much hype that I will steer clear of the obvious, but suffice it to say, the New England Patriots have made a run for the record books. Not just in the margin of victory column, but in the ATS Winning streak as well. Indeed, over the past 28 seasons, there had been eight teams prior to New England that had started the season with six ATS wins. And ALL EIGHT OF THESE TEAMS not only failed to cover the spread in Week 7, but all eight lost the game straight up (and all eight were favored to win by anywhere from 3 to 9.5 points). But New England bucked history and covered vs. Miami in Week 7, and then covered in Week 8 vs. Washington. Although the Patriots are the best team I've ever seen in a season's 1st half, the pointspread has definitely caught up with them. Consider that, if this game were being played in New England, then the Patriots would be favored by around 12 points. But they were only favored by 15.5 points last week vs. Washington, and Washington is about a touchdown worse than Indy. So, just after last week, the oddsmakers have adjusted New England's power rating by about 3 points. Last year, Indy was favored by 3.5 points at home vs. New England, which is 9 points away from the current number! And all Indy has done is win 12 straight games dating back to last season, and going 9-3 ATS, with six of those 12 games against playoff-caliber competition. In contrast, New England has only played two games this year vs. playoff-caliber opponents: San Diego and Dallas. And the Colts are much better than either of those two teams. The increased level of talent of its opponent, combined with an adjusted pointspread, will be too much for New England to overcome this week. For technical support, we note that unrested .888 (or better) teams off six straight wins and 3 straight ATS wins are 1-25 ATS since 1980 as favorites of -12 points or less vs. .333 (or better) foes. Of course the only time this 25-1 ATS system failed to get the $$$$ was last week when Indy covered its fourth straight game as a 7-point favorite over Carolina. But I look for this time-proven angle to get back on the winning track this Sunday, and move to 26-1 ATS since 1980. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Division Game of the Month Winner, or my Monday Night Game of the Year.
At 8:15 pm, our NFC East Game of the Month is on the Philadelphia Eagles plus the points over Dallas. Both of these divisional rivals come into tonight's contest off wins over the Vikings: Dallas defeated Minnesota two weeks ago (and then had last week off), while Philly upset the Vikes 17-10 as a 1-point underdog last week. That victory by Philly is key here, as over the last 28 years, one of the best bets in the NFL is to play on divisional home dogs of less than seven points, with a losing record, off an outright win as a dog, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win. These teams have cashed a super 71.4% of the time. Philly is 13-6-1 its last 20 games vs. Dallas, including a perfect 9-0 off a win of seven or more points. Donavan McNabb is 6-1 SU as a starter vs. the Cowboys, while Dallas QB Tony Romo struggled in his only start vs. Philly (14 of 29 with one TD and 2 Interceptions). Romo is also in poor form, as he's committed 8 turnovers in his last three games. The Eagles played terrific defense last week vs. Viking RB Adrian Peterson, holding him to just 70 yards, and the Eagles' stop unit will be buoyed by the return of Brian Dawkins this week. With tough road games still to come against New England, New Orleans, Washington and these Cowboys, this home game is close to a 'must-win' game for Philly. They'll get it. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Winner today.
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Phoenix played perhaps its worst game ever in the Mike D'Antoni era two nights back, when it got blasted 119-98 to the Lakers (and Kobe Bryant didn't even have a good game). Rest assured that the Suns won't have two awful games in a row in front of their home fans, especially after being booed off the court on Friday. Professional athletes have a lot of pride, and embarassment is often a big motivating factor. Indeed, since 1993, .500 or better NBA home teams are a solid 14-0 ATS off a home game in which they failed to cover by 25 or more points, provided they're matched up against a foe off exactly one win. Take Phoenix. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
The Miller Group
GAME: New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts Nov 4, 2007 4:15PM
SPORT: National Football League Picks
PICK: Indianapolis Colts
Offered at: 6.5 BoDog
REASON FOR PICK:
Sure, the Patriots have looked invincible through the first eight weeks of the season, going undefeated, and winning by an average margin of 25.5 points per game.
However, this is a team that laid just six points at the New York Jets in Week 1, seven points at Cincinnati in Week 4, and five points at Dallas in Week 6. We simply can't make a case for them to be favored by six-and-a-half on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs, who just so happen to be undefeated as well. Indianapolis has a legitimate shot to not only cover this number, but win the game outright. We'll gladly take the generous helping of points.
There really isn't a list of negative points we can bring up about the Patriots. There's no question they've played nearly flawless football through eight weeks. We will point to the Dallas game as a point of reference as to why the Colts can win this game.
Remember, the Patriots actually trailed the Cowboys 24-21 midway through the third quarter in that contest. Poor execution on both sides of the ball would eventually kill the Cowboys as they lost the game 48-27.
We don't expect a lack of execution to be an issue for the Colts. The Colts defensive numbers are almost a mirror image to those of the Patriots, while their offense has been every bit as consistent, but not quite as potent. You can make the case that Indianapolis has put up those numbers against stiffer competition. Their opponents own a combined 27-24 record, while the Patriots opponents have posted a collective 23-34 mark.
Colts WR Marvin Harrison is expected to be in street clothes for this one, but we don't see that as a huge issue. Peyton Manning has done an excellent job of spreading the ball around, and Reggie Wayne has become his go-to-guy this season. Harrison is certainly a big part of this offense, but his absence isn't going to disrupt the Colts offensive gameplan.
The Patriots aren't the only team that has improved significantly since last season. The Colts are playing with a lot more confidence, and most importantly are playing loose. Winning the Super Bowl has taken the massive weight off of their shoulders and allowed them to play their game. Unlike other teams, they're not going to be intimidated by the mighty Patriots. Having the advantage of facing them at home doesn't hurt either.
We've been surprised by the amount of public love the Patriots have received in this one. It's important to note that this line opened at -3, and has since been bet up by as many as three-and-a-half points at some books. It's simply too significant of a move in a game that we feel could go either way. The Patriots dream season may continue, but it's not going to be a cakewalk. Take Indianapolis.
O.C. Dooley
"2 UNIT" UPSET SHOCKER
(49ers +3' at Falcons in a 1:05 eastern kickoff):
The bottom line regarding this release is that I have found out that due to waning fan support, the 49ers are going to play this game with a sense of URGENCY not normally found when facing a struggling opponent with just one win. It seems like an eternity since San Francisco's season opening 2-0 winning streak as it appeared this franchise was finally starting to turn the corner. One of the reasons why there was so much enthusiasm at the start of this campaign is due to the fact that the normally spendthrift 49ers shelled out nearly $40-million of guaranteed cash in the offseason to upgrade the DEFENSE. I just have a feeling that defense is going to look tremendous this afternoon against an injury-ravaged Atlanta offensive line that has already gone through 3 different players at the left tackle position alone. Other than last week against a New Orleans attack that was rated #1 a year ago, there has been hope for that San Francisco defense and note that rookie linebacker Patrick Willis currently leads the entire NFL with an average of 10.4 tackles per game. I am fully aware that the San Francisco offense statistically is at the very bottom of the league right now averaging an awful 220 total yards per game, but they are slowly getting HEALTHY. Last week QB Alex Smith returned from injury and obviously was rusty, but I have found out that the former #1 draft choice has earned plenty of RESPECT from his teammates for playing through the pain of a separated shoulder. It was two weeks ago when San Francisco's main offensive threat (TE Vernon Davis) also returned from an injury absence and I feel both he and his quarterback are now undervalued. Last year Frank Gore rushed for nearly 1,700 yards but this campaign has yet to reach the 100 yard barrier in any contest, so he is undervalued as well even though currently battling an ankle problem. Of course things in Atlanta made a dramatic turn for the worse when star QB Michael Vick got into trouble with the law. In the past few years one thing Vick did with his mobility was have the Falcons constantly lead the NFL in rushing, but those running statistics in 2007 have made a complete about-face. Not only did the Falcons lose the face of their franchise, they also changed to head coach Bobby Petrino whose disciplinary style has rubbed many veterans on this squad the wrong way, including star CB D'Angelo Hall who already got into an altercation with his coach on the sidelines. Hall was also vocal during the BYE week when the Falcons sent a message and cut their best defensive lineman Grady Jackson who constantly defied the coaching staff and refused to follow the called plays on the field. Basically Petrino's timing taking on this NFL job was poor as he is trying to install a completely new style of play as opposed to what Jim Mora Jr. ran successfully for so many years this decade. One of the many things Petrino has changed is the "zone blocking" style that used to work wonders for the rushing attack. With the aforementioned injuries across the offensive line, both the Falcons rushing and passing attacks have suffered as the quarterback's have been "sitting ducks" in the pocket. Today they will be facing an improved 49er defense and will have there collective hands full. Since they no longer play in the same division, it is rare that these 2 teams face each other as today marks San Francisco's first visit to the Georgia Dome since way back in the 2001 playoffs. In 2004 Atlanta went out to San Francisco on opening day and won a tight contest decided by TWO POINTS. The 49ers are backed by a fabulous "30-8 System" that in the past decade has covered at near an 80-PERCENT clip! This incredible system sides with ROAD teams like San Francisco coming off a game where they allowed 30+ points on the scoreboard, facing an opponent who has scored 17-or-LESS points in 3 consecutive outings. For those of you who have already given up on the 49ers, that may be a poor decision. Last year San Francisco started 2-5 out of the gate and promptly went on a 3-game WINNING streak to reach the .500 mark! In a case of deja-vu, the 49ers again are off to a poor 2-5 start, but if they follow last year's pattern they are going to win this contest OUTRIGHT. That is why I am personally dabbling on the money-line (+165) as well.
Larry Ness
Game: Panthers at Titans
Pick: Panthers
Reason: The Titans have been a great underdog these last two years but have fared poorly as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Panthers have been the league's best road dog, going 19-7-1 ATS in that role since 2002. No reason to buck that trend here, regardless of the QB situation for Carolina (Vinny or Carr). Tennessee is having its fair share of QB problems as well, as Vince Young returned last week but completed just 6-of-14 for 42 yards, in a 13-9 win over Oakland (another failure as a favorite for the Titans). Young was highly praised for his play last year but the fact remains that he completed just 51.5% of his throws in '06 with a 12-13 ratio and a QB rating of 66.7. His completion percentage is way up this year (64.0) but his ratio is poor once again (3-6) and his QB rating is only 68.0. The Titans opened the '07 season by rushing for 282 yards vs the Jaguars but since then the running game has averaged a much more modest, 129.0 YPG (which would rank them about 10th in the league). I'm taking the points with the Panthers.
THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Play: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7 (BUY ONE POINT)
Comments: THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR) SELECTION: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +7 (BUY ONE POINT) Get in now as the books are beginning to move the line down. The major books still have it at 6. Although we feel strong about the Colts covering the 6, we'd like to see our clients invest the extra .20 cents to the dollar and insure themselves against a push. This is where the rubber meets the road. We'll find out if the Pats are for real or have played a soft schedule or if the Colts are as good as advertised. From a betting perspective, we have to side with the Colts here. Getting a plus 6 line with any team, even the worst the NFL has to offer is a bit too much. Sharpening the angle buying the point makes it a big lean to the bettor to get 7 points in any NFL game never mind getting last years Super bowl champion at this price. Brady has been racking up great stats, but how could you not when Randy moss is being double covered and you basically have a receiver either uncovered or in man to man on every play? Has anyone even noticed that the Colts lead the league in pass defense? So if anyone can stop the Pats passing game, you're looking at it today. Teams have been basically intimidated and playing scared against the Pats forcing them to get desperate and attempt big plays which forces mistakes. The Colts are a patient team and will take what you give them be it short passes, down the middle, or long yardage. That patience is what's needed to win today. As far as the rosters and person to person, the Colts can equal the Patriots for talent. With Marvin Harrison in today that takes the attention off of Dallas Clark who has been the x-factor for the Colts. Once you think you have it worked out, Clark is wide open and with his sure hands it's frustrating defenses. Patriot's offense is undoubtedly top notch, but that defense has not been tested and it will get a full exam today. Indianapolis has won the last three meetings between these two teams, including last year's AFC championship. the difference this year is the Colts have a defense. Colts are at home where they always play better as any dome team should. It should be a closer than expected game and although we truly believe the Colts win it SU, we can't over look the amount of points Vegas is giving away here and by grabbing the extra point then this game is insured as far as we can take it. It's value to have this line with any team in the NFL. Grab the generous points and lets enjoy a great game today.
feist--
inner circle.............sf under 37, det
platinum goy................philly
platinum......................colts
personal best.................bills, wash
total...........................ne over 56.5, car under 35.5
island source......................sd
personal elite...................clev over 46.5, nuggets
teasers............car,sd,philly
............car,det
spritzer--
5 star hammer...............ariz
4 star hammer...............carolna
tko heavy hitter gom..........new orlns
tko.................hous
ko...................philly, colts
total..................5 star oak under41.5
insider........................seatt
direct line release..................sd
cokin--
fat man releases................kc-2.5, sd-7
under the hat...................dallas
window..........................wash
total..............................sf under 37
big shot...........................hous
super total........................clev over 46.5
DOC SPORTS
4 Unit Play. #112 Take Kansas City -2 over Green Bay (Sunday 1:00 pm Fox) The Packers are set to invade AFC West territory for the second straight week and will be coming off a short week after their magical victory on Monday night. The Packers have always suffered a letdown when entering a short week with just two pointspread victories in their last seven games following a MNF game. Arrowhead Stadium has always been a tough place to play, especially for NFC teams and the Chiefs have the defense to match-up with the Packers. QB Favre suffers a letdown and tries to do too much when the running game fails early. KC wins this low scoring game. Kansas City 20, Green Bay 16.
3 Unit Play. #113 Take San Diego -7 over Minnesota (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) I was all set to use the Chargers as a selection last week, but because of the wildfires no line was posted until Friday, which is after the time that we release selections for the weekend. They cruised to a victory last week against a better Houston team then they will face this week in Minnesota. The Chargers are finally playing up to their potential and because they play in a bad division, they should have no problem winning the AFC West for the second straight year. Minnesota has no offense to speak of and Brad Childress in on the hot seat. They have a solid back in Peterson but do not have a quarterback in Jackson. Things have gotten so bad that QB Bollinger may see action and he has been a flop at every stop in the NFL. San Diego will not beat themselves and win this game by double-digits. San Diego 28, Minnesota 10.
4 Unit Play. #131 Take Baltimore +9 over Pittsburgh (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) Both teams still win games via their defense and this is way too many points to be laying with a run first offense in Pittsburgh. This visitor has owned this series of late going 10-5 in the last 16 meetings (one tie). The Ravens won in Pittsburgh last year, 31-7, and expect a solid effort from them on Monday. Baltimore needs this game more and thus will sneak out a victory in a low scoring game. Baltimore 19, Pittsburgh 17.